Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

The key fact to remember when discussing the impact of Scotland on UK politics is that there are 59 seats north of the border of which LAB hold 41. So anything that could weaken the party in the eyes of Scottish voters could have a big impact on GE15.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Very good and important thread.

    Although some of those seats look tough to crack the damage caused by Johann Lamont's very public spat could be considerable. She has laid into Miliband's London Labour in such a way that it's difficult to see Scottish Labour recovering their vote in time for GE2015.

    What we now need to see, of course, are some Scottish polls.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    12% of Scots believe EdM is doing well as leader of Labour, whilst 82% think he is doing badly.

    67% of UKIP VI would trust Nigel Farage most to get the best deal for Britain from the EU
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014
    The recent Scottish polls have had 12-13 point swings (24-26 point turnarounds).

    The Westminster subsamples (for what they are worth) have much bigger swings.

    Labour's devolutionary offer appears to be the skimpiest one of the lot, both sub-LibDem and sub-Tory, so I can't see any argument for Yes voters to return to the Labour fold. Supporting Labour to a majority would equal the weakest devolution.

    It is perhaps in their best interests to give the SNP the strongest hand that it can muster with a probable hung parliament.

    It is possible that the dam walling in the Labour UK vote might completely burst if they fall behind on a more consistent basis. It's been leaking for a year and a half now.

  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    The Inside Story of Lamont's Downfall:

    But Lamont and her allies believe Curran - who is Ed Miliband's shadow Scotland secretary - knifed Lamont in the back when the Glasgow Pollok MSP needed help.

    Labour down, Tories down, LibDems (who dat?) UKIP (and Greens if I keep pushing the meme) on the up.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2014
    Good morning. Someone please tell Vanilla that they are an hour slow due to time change.

    Ooooops! They've now altered it. LOL
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2014
    UKIP Windsor ‏@UKIP_RBWM 13h13 hours ago
    Rochester By-Election: @Conservatives Candidate @KellyTolhurst is Anti-Israel Activist @UKIPRochester @UKIP http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rochester-by-election-camerons-candidate-kelly-tolhurst-anti-israel-activist-1471647

    Well, well! Will this fact play for her in this particular area or not?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    If Labour had more "Jim Murphys" they'd be laughing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Gadfly said:
    Nice graphs.
    Even with a blue/red crossover the purple/yellow crossover may be enough to turf Cameron out of number 10.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    We know from 2010 that Scots will stand by their own even when they're very very odd, but given this is an all Scots affair, does Jim Murphy not get marked down for coming across very strangely - deeply creepy breathy tone of voice and body language full of latent anger being suppressed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I thought I'd update my tables of odds for Scottish seats as a companion to this thread:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1VGVsZ3Zsa2lqck0/view?usp=sharing

    This shows all the seats in Scotland ranked in order of the bookies' odds on the SNP taking each seat. This took rather longer than I'd expected because the odds have moved more in the last fortnight than I'd expected.

    For those that want to compare movements, I last looked at this here:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scottish-post-referendum-special.html

    The punters are not being put off by the Herculean swings required. For myself, the 6/4 on the SNP in Dundee West still looks an outstanding bargain. The 4/1 on the SNP in Ross Skye & Lochaber does not.
  • AJKAJK Posts: 20
    Didn't Murphy pilot through one of those bland sounding, but highly repressive pieces of legislation on data communications? I forget the title.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Cheers antifrank, – still in the process of trawling through the weekend threads, I’ll keep an eye out for that discussion. – Quite honestly, what with the recent SNP surge and SLP decapitation, I’m not sure we know how things stand, north of the border - hopefully his lordship will generously provide some new Scottish polling soon.
  • MikeK said:

    UKIP Windsor ‏@UKIP_RBWM 13h13 hours ago
    Rochester By-Election: @Conservatives Candidate @KellyTolhurst is Anti-Israel Activist @UKIPRochester @UKIP http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rochester-by-election-camerons-candidate-kelly-tolhurst-anti-israel-activist-1471647

    Well, well! Will this fact play for her in this particular area or not?

    Interesting one. I would like to think it did her no electoral harm but..

    My hunch is that a former Royal Naval Dockyard town it may not go down to well with some older voters, who might take a rather small c conservative line on defence and middle eastern matters.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Cheers antifrank, – still in the process of trawling through the weekend threads, I’ll keep an eye out for that discussion. – Quite honestly, what with the recent SNP surge and SLP decapitation, I’m not sure how things stand, north of the border - hopefully his lordship will generously provide some new Scottish polling soon.
    I've found the relevant comment for you:
    JPJ2 said:

    antifrank says of Salmond:

    "wouldn't he be better standing in a Glasgow seat, with the aim of putting boosters under the SNP's hopes of harnessing those Yes voters there?"

    Salmond is probably the only senior politician in Scotland who might seriously consider doing such a thing. I cite as evidence that he returned to Holyrood by contesting a seat where his party had come third in the previous election. On balance, however, I think that he will not for at least the reasons below:

    * Although Glasgow voted "Yes", many appear to have done so on the basis that a vote for independence was expressly not a vote for Alex Salmond.

    * A lot more effort might be required to win in Glasgow than in Gordon which might prove a distraction from the main campaign

    * It might be viewed negatively in much of the rest of Scotland, where Salmond garners some support for his party by it not being dominated by Glasgow. It would certainly be easily portrayed as such with Sturgeon also being Glasgow based.

    I still don't feel able to rule it out completely, though it is the third point that is the most important to me.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    MikeK said:

    UKIP Windsor ‏@UKIP_RBWM 13h13 hours ago
    Rochester By-Election: @Conservatives Candidate @KellyTolhurst is Anti-Israel Activist @UKIPRochester @UKIP http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rochester-by-election-camerons-candidate-kelly-tolhurst-anti-israel-activist-1471647

    Well, well! Will this fact play for her in this particular area or not?

    When did retweeting become 'hardcore activism'?
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited October 2014
    Janet Daley in form today:

    "A liberal elite wants to brush Ukip aside
    Trampling over non-conforming minorities is not democracy, it is mob rule"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11185908/A-liberal-elite-wants-to-brush-Ukip-aside.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Morning all :)

    So we have 1/3 of the electorate in the blue camp, 1/3 in the red camp and 1/3 in neither camp - apparently plenty of voters still to decide and six months to go.

    A better definition of "all to play for" would be hard to find.

    I'm bemused by the fact that CCHQ didn't spot Kelly Tolhurst's past utterings on Gaza and other matters Middle Eastern as the vetting (or neutering if you prefer) process for Conservative candidates is rigorous. It will be interesting if or how Labour and UKIP use this information but the one thing a candidate struggling to make ground doesn't need is a potential stick or several (I also note there's a planning issue related to Hoo) with which they can be beaten.

    I was on the paddle steamer SS Waverley with Mrs Stodge a fortnight ago and we ambled round the mouth of the Medway so I probably saw R&S from the water. One fact of which I was unaware was the importation of Liquid natural Gas (LNG) to a terminal on the Isle of Grain from North Africa - a sign of the demise of the North Sea oil/gas bonanza.

    Whatever did we do with that windfall - create a Sovereign Fund or build an infrastructure for future generations ? No, we wasted it on a tax cut. Whatever happened to the billions from the privatisations in the 80s ? Oh yes, thrown away on tax cuts.

    We didn't need to be in this financial mess - both the Conservative and Labour parties have a lot to answer for - they both had long periods in office to prepare for the demographic time bomb and the end of North Sea oil yet did nothing.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited October 2014
    Observer confirms that Gordon Brown is among the favourites for leadership of Scottish Labour Party.

    "Michael Connarty, Labour MP for Linlithgow and East Falkirk, has backed former prime minister Gordon Brown to replace Lamont as “a towering figure” who was “speaking the language of the people of Scotland”. He told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme: “We should be talking about Gordon and Gordon alone. I’ll be seeking him out, and so will other people.”"

    Personally I think he is the only one who could rescue the electoral 2015 situation in Scotland.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/26/labour-civil-war-scottish-leader-johann-lamont-quits
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    maaarsh said:

    We know from 2010 that Scots will stand by their own even when they're very very odd, but given this is an all Scots affair, does Jim Murphy not get marked down for coming across very strangely - deeply creepy breathy tone of voice and body language full of latent anger being suppressed.

    Heh heh. I wonder what you'd make of my handwriting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Sky were reporting this morning that Brown would not stand.

    On topic, Murphy would help stem the losses in 2015 but his effect will be less pronounced in 2016 unless he commits to move to the Holyrood parliament either then or before.

    The whole structure's bodged and the cause of the current problem. Having two leaders in one party with overlapping authority is a recipe for friction and trouble. The Scottish leader having supposed authority over Westminster MPs from north of the border was never going to end well as those MPs inevitably look to their leader in Westminster first. The 'Scottish' leader should be the head of their Holyrood parliamentary delegation and no more (or, if outside the parliament, as Murphy is, their designated First Minister nominee for after the next election).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

    I agree with that completely. Scottish Labour urgently needs to show the Scots that it is not Westminster's toy and that it is going to fight the SNP on Scottish terms. Gordon Brown probably is the best man for that job.

    Would he want it though?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Sky were reporting this morning that Brown would not stand.

    On topic, Murphy would help stem the losses in 2015 but his effect will be less pronounced in 2016 unless he commits to move to the Holyrood parliament either then or before.

    The whole structure's bodged and the cause of the current problem. Having two leaders in one party with overlapping authority is a recipe for friction and trouble. The Scottish leader having supposed authority over Westminster MPs from north of the border was never going to end well as those MPs inevitably look to their leader in Westminster first. The 'Scottish' leader should be the head of their Holyrood parliamentary delegation and no more (or, if outside the parliament, as Murphy is, their designated First Minister nominee for after the next election).
    We're at cross-purposes. I was suggesting that Alex Salmond was lining up Gordon (the seat) as somewhere to stand.

    Too many Gordons in Scotland!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    That is Murphy's problem. Many Tories and neocons rate him highly. (Former) Scottish Labour voters- not so much.

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Is EdM aping the LDs in giving different messages and policies to different constituencies. Perhaps a beard is next on his agenda.

    "Mr Miliband used his trip to Rochester to unveil a tough new stance on immigration, saying: ‘If I become Prime Minister I will bring in clear, credible and concrete measures to count all
    people going in and out of the UK.’ He would stop child benefit and tax credits being paid for children who live abroad, curb immigrants’ benefits, ban bosses using immigrant labour to undercut British workers and make sure more public sector workers can speak English.’

    But he did not mention immigration when he addressed the Black and Ethnic Minority Forum meeting in Croydon which included many Labour supporters.

    He said if he became PM, one of his first acts would be to introduce new laws to promote racial equality.‘I’m committing today, in front of you as my witnesses, to saying that if a Labour government is elected to power we will deliver a race equality strategy across every government department within a year.

    'We would tackle police stop and search, which is disproportionately used on black people... and tackle the under-representation of black people in the judiciary and in public sector board rooms.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2808001/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Sky were reporting this morning that Brown would not stand.

    On topic, Murphy would help stem the losses in 2015 but his effect will be less pronounced in 2016 unless he commits to move to the Holyrood parliament either then or before.

    The whole structure's bodged and the cause of the current problem. Having two leaders in one party with overlapping authority is a recipe for friction and trouble. The Scottish leader having supposed authority over Westminster MPs from north of the border was never going to end well as those MPs inevitably look to their leader in Westminster first. The 'Scottish' leader should be the head of their Holyrood parliamentary delegation and no more (or, if outside the parliament, as Murphy is, their designated First Minister nominee for after the next election).
    We're at cross-purposes. I was suggesting that Alex Salmond was lining up Gordon (the seat) as somewhere to stand.

    Too many Gordons in Scotland!
    Of course. Still half asleep. Gordon would make good sense for Salmond. It should be as close to a nailed-on SNP gain as you can get given that it's Lib Dem held and the incumbent is standing down. With Salmond's personal standing in that part of the world, I don't think he'd be taking too many chances.

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Windsor ‏@UKIP_RBWM 13h13 hours ago
    Rochester By-Election: @Conservatives Candidate @KellyTolhurst is Anti-Israel Activist @UKIPRochester @UKIP http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rochester-by-election-camerons-candidate-kelly-tolhurst-anti-israel-activist-1471647

    Well, well! Will this fact play for her in this particular area or not?

    When did retweeting become 'hardcore activism'?
    Quite. UKIP will probably win R&S but it won't have anything to do with this attempt by the Jewish lobby to make a non-story feed their persecution complex. All Kelly did was re-tweet support for victims of Gaza. By the way, this story was on Guido in the week, after it began in the Jewish Chronicle, so it's hardly news.

    Of all the issues voters at Rochester and Strood lose sleep over there won't be a single one that places Israeli activity in Gaza as one of them.

    MikeK and Paul in bed, I know you're keen on UKIP to win but straw clutching like this smacks of desperation.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    That is Murphy's problem. Many Tories and neocons rate him highly. (Former) Scottish Labour voters- not so much.

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

    Anyone who saw Murphy and Lamont campaigning in the referendum could not be struck by the difference. If Labour fail to make him their Scottish leader in favour of some nonentity in Holyrood, they've missed an outstanding opportunity. However, I'd be far from surprised if they do.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Stodge,

    "We didn't need to be in this financial mess - both the Conservative and Labour parties have a lot to answer for - they both had long periods in office to prepare for the demographic time bomb and the end of North Sea oil yet did nothing."

    A parliament lasts five years at most. Short-termism is the nature of politics. But you know that, don't you.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNews: Brown Not Running For Scottish Labour Leader http://t.co/GDFmXCxtSR
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Lamont needed defenestration.

    What does seem unfair is that the person doing the defenestration seems to have under performed at least as substantially as Johann.

    The problem for Jin Murphy is he is a lot more credible as Labour leader than Ed.

    Why settle for just Scotland? Murphy will surely want to be in on the kill the night of the 7th May 2015.

    Scottish Labour chose Iain Gray then Johann Lamont. It'd be a surprise if the next occupant of the job is as terrible as those two, but Scottish Labour do have a real habit of surprising us.

    So, once we have identified someone worse than Lamont, there's our candidate. Who conceivably could be worse than Lamont?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    Wouldn't having an MP (rather than MSP) simply reinforce Lamont's comments about Labour and Miliband?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @Roger are you Adrian Harpur in disguise?
  • Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    LOL. Now we see why the Nottingham University survey found that Labour supporters are most likely to indulge in fantasies. The only 'colossal' thing about Brown is his ineptitude.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    Financier said:

    Is EdM aping the LDs in giving different messages and policies to different constituencies. Perhaps a beard is next on his agenda.

    "Mr Miliband used his trip to Rochester to unveil a tough new stance on immigration, saying: ‘If I become Prime Minister I will bring in clear, credible and concrete measures to count all
    people going in and out of the UK.’ He would stop child benefit and tax credits being paid for children who live abroad, curb immigrants’ benefits, ban bosses using immigrant labour to undercut British workers and make sure more public sector workers can speak English.’

    But he did not mention immigration when he addressed the Black and Ethnic Minority Forum meeting in Croydon which included many Labour supporters.

    He said if he became PM, one of his first acts would be to introduce new laws to promote racial equality.‘I’m committing today, in front of you as my witnesses, to saying that if a Labour government is elected to power we will deliver a race equality strategy across every government department within a year.

    'We would tackle police stop and search, which is disproportionately used on black people... and tackle the under-representation of black people in the judiciary and in public sector board rooms.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2808001/

    Firstly it's not the immigrants claiming benefits that is the problem and secondly it's only possible to stop the undercutting if the job is minimum wage to start off with.

    If you were an electrician working on site for a big firm, you earned well above the minimum wage but are now being undercut by economic migrants who will accept virtually minimum wage ... So nothing illegal

    The point is that th boss of this big construction firm doesn't pass on the difference to the customer, hence the rich getting richer and the poor poorer and the difference between the credo ever widening
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Ref SNP gains, from the very useful table in the header, it's true that there aren't many pickings for the SNP from Labour on a sub-10% swing. On the other hand, there are ten winnable on swings of 9.5% to 15% (actually, there may be more but I've not checked the seats where they start in third or fourth but still with a chunky share of the vote). Those numbers are achievable - they happened in 1997 for Labour and, more relevantly, in 2011 for the SNP.

    Salmond talked about winning 20 Westminster seats prior to 2010. It may be that he was one election out.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    This mighty, towering colossus?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTE6cTBrGcA

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    The problem for Scottish Labour is that they are trying to face in 2 different directions at once. As the provider of 41 seats they have provided a significant part of the Westminster representation for Labour and, until recently, they had a disproportionate representation in its leadership.

    But the major game in town in Scotland is no longer Westminster and it will be even less so when devomax is applied. If this is combined with EVEL then those 41 MPs are going to be increasingly useless in determining the government of this country.

    Until now Labour has, with very limited exceptions, looked at Holyrood as some sort of local government, a training ground for the B team. They paid a massive price for that in 2011 and Scotland nearly did too in the referendum.

    Scottish Labour needs to focus on Holyrood building policies and personalities that have something useful to say about the impending crisis in the Scottish NHS, our catastrophic education system and the increasing centralisation of power away from local government.

    Any Scottish leader either needs to be in Holyrood or at least committed to being there very soon and needs to spend all their time focussed on devolved matters. Jim Murphy has been extremely reluctant to make that commitment. Brown even more so. As Henry McLeish put it yesterday: “I think Johann is absolutely right to make the comments she has made. For a decade now the party have been in decline and the SNP have been in the ascendancy. There has been a failure to rise to the devolution challenge." That is what this is about.

    We may well get to the point when the Labour cohort at Westminster is as relevant to Scottish political life as those MEPs that we elected and will not hear from again for several years.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Windsor ‏@UKIP_RBWM 13h13 hours ago
    Rochester By-Election: @Conservatives Candidate @KellyTolhurst is Anti-Israel Activist @UKIPRochester @UKIP http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rochester-by-election-camerons-candidate-kelly-tolhurst-anti-israel-activist-1471647

    Well, well! Will this fact play for her in this particular area or not?

    When did retweeting become 'hardcore activism'?
    Quite. UKIP will probably win R&S but it won't have anything to do with this attempt by the Jewish lobby to make a non-story feed their persecution complex. All Kelly did was re-tweet support for victims of Gaza. By the way, this story was on Guido in the week, after it began in the Jewish Chronicle, so it's hardly news.

    Of all the issues voters at Rochester and Strood lose sleep over there won't be a single one that places Israeli activity in Gaza as one of them.

    MikeK and Paul in bed, I know you're keen on UKIP to win but straw clutching like this smacks of desperation.
    'Jewish persecution complex' nice turn of phrase
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    Haven't we already had that match-up, in 2010?
  • Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    That would be another gift for UKIP.

    Just re-run the clip of Brown casting the woman in Rochdale as a bigot when she dared to mention immigration and more WWC votes lost. Doesn't matter if he is leader in Scotland only the Westminster Labour party are closely associated with him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited October 2014
    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    Eh???

    You mean - this sort of towering colossus?!

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/gordzilla-returns-to-the-back-benches/

    [edit: cartoon for weekend morning]
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    After that Tolhurst interview on immigration, the blame may lie on a poor quality candidate, out of her depth. But Cameron has painted himself into a corner on not accounting for whores, drugs & cash in hand transactions. The EU contribution stuff won't help his chances.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    I don't know about Ed Miliband saying different things to different audiences but every politician does that - David Cameron is a past master at it.

    To the Conservative faithful, it's all red-meat right-wingery but to the more sceptical it's the sweet sugary taste of "liberal conservatism".

    For the domestic audience, it's all about standing up to the EU and trying to out-UKIP UKIP in his distaste for all things European while in Brussels, I suspect, it's much more conciliatory and asking that nice Mrs Merkel if it's all right for him to get a little cross for domestic consumption but don't worry we'll pay the money on time as good members of the club.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited October 2014
    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Miliband and Balls will look when compared to this towering colossus up North. And how far Labour will appear to have moved on since 2010, with the same dream team at the top.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited October 2014
    Good morning Doc.


    "@Roger are you Adrian Harpur in disguise?"


    It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say he made the most notable ground moving speech of the last decade. Few politicians can make a difference without being in office. Gordon possibly single handedly did it with just one passionate speech. A speech which might have saved the union. There aren't many in the UK who can outperform Alex Salmond from a standing start but Brown did.

    Underestimate him at your peril. The futures bright.The futures Brown
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014
    stodge said:

    Whatever did we do with that windfall

    Dealt with the 1970s deficit? The one we needed an IMF bailout for?




  • Off topic but a couple of betting posts for the Utd-Chelsea game later.

    Ivanovic to be carded is 15/8 with Fred and only 10/11 with Paddy, he is a walking yellow in these big games.

    Similarly Rafael up against Hazard looks another likely card, Fred go a really generous 5/2 whereas Paddy are 11/10.

    The other player who likes to give his personal details to the ref in these big games is Ramires, he is 15/8 with Victor but only 5/6 with Paddy.

    Be a bit careful as Ivanovic is the only certain starter, Rafael will probably play but Ramires is doubtful.

    I've also had a few quid each way on Fleur East to win X-Factor at 12/1, 1/5 the odds for top three. My wife has a policy that she only watches programmes where you can vote someone off, so I decided long ago I might as well try to make some money from it.

    The fav is Andrea Faustini, a likeable Italian chap who can actually sing, with Lauren Platt and Ben something ahead of my pick in the betting. Both of those can sing as well but my pick has something about her look that I think people will go for, not sure that she will win but 12/1 each way will keep me interested in the hyped up, convoluted dross.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Another depressing YouGov poll for Labour.

    Miliband's ratings now -51 which is lowest since January 2012 and the tie between Labour and Tories is only second time Labour not been ahead in the Sunday Times poll since early 2012.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/tg001pwhwn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-241014.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    The return of the undead Gordon Brown in Scottish politics is an obvious reason why Scotland would never, EVER have been able to retain the pound....

    His dipping into the Bank of England joint account would have made the EU's additional tax demands look like small change.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Off topic but a couple of betting posts for the Utd-Chelsea game later.

    Ivanovic to be carded is 15/8 with Fred and only 10/11 with Paddy, he is a walking yellow in these big games.

    Similarly Rafael up against Hazard looks another likely card, Fred go a really generous 5/2 whereas Paddy are 11/10.

    The other player who likes to give his personal details to the ref in these big games is Ramires, he is 15/8 with Victor but only 5/6 with Paddy.

    Be a bit careful as Ivanovic is the only certain starter, Rafael will probably play but Ramires is doubtful.

    I've also had a few quid each way on Fleur East to win X-Factor at 12/1, 1/5 the odds for top three. My wife has a policy that she only watches programmes where you can vote someone off, so I decided long ago I might as well try to make some money from it.

    The fav is Andrea Faustini, a likeable Italian chap who can actually sing, with Lauren Platt and Ben something ahead of my pick in the betting. Both of those can sing as well but my pick has something about her look that I think people will go for, not sure that she will win but 12/1 each way will keep me interested in the hyped up, convoluted dross.

    Fleur isn't the best singer by a long chalk but she has the X Factor. I like your bet.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    chestnut said:

    stodge said:

    Whatever did we do with that windfall

    Dealt with the 1970s deficit? The one we needed an IMF bailout for?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/10103345/We-wasted-North-Sea-oil-lets-not-do-the-same-with-shale-gas.html

    Or you could actually come up with some facts before posting the usual fatuous nonsense. Read that as a condemnation of Conservative and Labour economic policies from 1979 onwards.

    "Successive Governments have beggared the future to fund today's indulgences" - and if you want to know why I'm no fan of Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair, it's all in that sentence. Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    Is this the colossus that goes to parties with empty beer cans covering a brick in his carrier bag? That mighty colossus?

    Maybe it's the mighty colossus that throws phones in temper tantrums, or the one that has delusions of grandeur that he saved the world.

    I hope Labour do elect him leader and I hope the Scots vote for him as FM. They deserve him.



  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Roger said:

    Good morning Doc.


    "@Roger are you Adrian Harpur in disguise?"


    It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say he made the most notable ground moving speech of the last decade. Few politicians can make a difference without being in office. Gordon possibly single handedly did it with just one passionate speech. A speech which might have saved the union. There aren't many in the UK who can outperform Alex Salmond from a standing start but Brown did.

    Underestimate him at your peril. The futures bright.The futures Brown

    A speech which he has already effectively repudiated as pretty much based on a tissue of lies from the party leaders. We have yet to see the full consequences of Mr Brown's intervention.



  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    stodge said:

    Or you could actually come up with some facts before posting the usual fatuous nonsense.

    So you decided to post an article from the Telegraph.

    Very droll.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

    And every spending increase.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Millsy said:

    Another depressing YouGov poll for Labour.

    Miliband's ratings now -51 which is lowest since January 2012 and the tie between Labour and Tories is only second time Labour not been ahead in the Sunday Times poll since early 2012.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/tg001pwhwn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-241014.pdf

    Ed is only +12 with the Labour VI, and is -13 with the 2010 Labour VI
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    chestnut said:

    stodge said:

    Or you could actually come up with some facts before posting the usual fatuous nonsense.

    So you decided to post an article from the Telegraph.

    Very droll.
    And you decided to come up with a meaningless jibe in response.

    Very typical.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    taffys said:

    Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

    And every spending increase.

    The world didn't begin in 1997 - decisions taken or not taken in the Thatcher-Major years are as much responsible for our current plight as those taken by Blair and Brown but it seems that, as with many others on here, you have a blind spot for that period and consider everything done in those years to be wholly positive.

    That must be why the MPs dumped Thatcher in 1990 and the electorate dumped the Conservative seven years later.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Swiss_Bob said:

    Roger said:

    Murphy though a huge improvement on the lamentable Lamont is but a shadow when compared to the mighty Brown. This is the job he was born to do. He'll not only tower over Scottish politics but UK politics too. Imagine how feeble grinning nonentities like Farage and the Bullingdon Boys will look when compared to this towering collosus up North.

    Is this the colossus that goes to parties with empty beer cans covering a brick in his carrier bag? That mighty colossus?

    Maybe it's the mighty colossus that throws phones in temper tantrums, or the one that has delusions of grandeur that he saved the world.

    I hope Labour do elect him leader and I hope the Scots vote for him as FM. They deserve him.



    Jilted John knew all about Gordon. Never truer words in a song title.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Ed's rating as leader of Labour is surely due to take another pounding as a result of the Lamont fall out. Will he threaten Nick's pre-eminent position as the UK's most useless politician? For a party that might well be on the cusp of government that would be a stunning achievement.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    That must be why the MPs dumped Thatcher in 1990 and the electorate dumped the Conservative seven years later.

    I did not blame any particular party in my post.

    I have often castigated Osborne on here for his inability to control spending.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    Good morning Doc.


    "@Roger are you Adrian Harpur in disguise?"


    It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say he made the most notable ground moving speech of the last decade. Few politicians can make a difference without being in office. Gordon possibly single handedly did it with just one passionate speech. A speech which might have saved the union. There aren't many in the UK who can outperform Alex Salmond from a standing start but Brown did.

    Underestimate him at your peril. The futures bright.The futures Brown

    Two things.

    One: past experience shows us Brown isn't a good leader.

    Two: it is easy to make speeches and have influence without the responsibility of government.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    @Stodge; re LNG tank farms.

    Some of the sites of our former refineries are now being used as storage for LNG which is imported from Qatar and its neighbours, who are often part owners of these LNG tank farms and only sell gas to the grid when the price is right.

    However a lot of auxiliary LNG powered electrical generation is being installed for times when the wind is too weak or too strong to generate electricity.

    Perhaps we should return to local gas works or even start fracking!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:


    Whatever did we do with that windfall - create a Sovereign Fund or build an infrastructure for future generations ? No, we wasted it on a tax cut. Whatever happened to the billions from the privatisations in the 80s ? Oh yes, thrown away on tax cuts.

    Did the amount of income tax paid by the richest 10% go up or down in absolute terms when the top rate of income tax was cut from 83% to 60%? Did it go up or down as a proportion of overall income tax?

    This is a rhetorical question: I am not expecting you to answer (we all know the answer anyway).

    The privatisations were not about money: they were about transferring assets into the private sector where they have been run - for the most part - more efficiently. Certainly, NP, Rolls Royce, BAe, BA, etc, are all far better for not being in state ownership.

    And the income from North Sea Oil contributed towards the massive restructuring that we needed to do to the economy in the 1980s. The Butskellite consensus of propping up failing industries with transfer payments had reached the end of the road
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)
  • Bury St Edmunds Conservative shortlist

    Johanna Churchill (Lincolnshire Cllr, shortlisted in South Cambridgeshire)
    James Cleverly (London Assembly Member)
    Helen Whately (shortlisted in Wealden, South Cambridgeshire, NE Hampshire, longlisted in SE Cambridgeshire) http://www.helenwhately.co.uk/
    Zehra Zaidi (2009 Euro candidate in South West)

    Selection on November 4th
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Morning all,

    Can anyone enlighten us on the system for electing Scottish Lab leader? Murphy isnt even in the parliament - does that matter?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    antifrank said:

    I thought I'd update my tables of odds for Scottish seats as a companion to this thread:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1VGVsZ3Zsa2lqck0/view?usp=sharing

    This shows all the seats in Scotland ranked in order of the bookies' odds on the SNP taking each seat. This took rather longer than I'd expected because the odds have moved more in the last fortnight than I'd expected.

    For those that want to compare movements, I last looked at this here:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scottish-post-referendum-special.html

    The punters are not being put off by the Herculean swings required. For myself, the 6/4 on the SNP in Dundee West still looks an outstanding bargain. The 4/1 on the SNP in Ross Skye & Lochaber does not.

    Interesting. SNP the favourites in only three extra seats...
  • Some background
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/london-called-shots-during-johann-lamont-tenure-1-3584124

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Some background
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/london-called-shots-during-johann-lamont-tenure-1-3584124

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

    Andrea, many thanks. Once again, you are like our own pb equivalent of the Italian guy on X-Factor - head and shoulders above the UK talent!

    And the photo at the head of that article is superb - zombie embraces zombie!!
  • Most amusing to discover that TSE thinks that 'plebs' was a term of insult in Roman discussions.

    When in fact the plebians were around 99% of the Roman citizens including at the end of the Republic Cicero, Cato, Crassus, Pompey, Brutus, Cassius, Antony and Octavian.

    And I can assure everyone that in South Yorkshire an Establishment Tory lawyer who's father is a doctor, who went to boarding school and who lives in Dore is the epitome of posh.

    No matter what accent he puts on.


  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

    And every spending increase.

    The world didn't begin in 1997 - decisions taken or not taken in the Thatcher-Major years are as much responsible for our current plight as those taken by Blair and Brown but it seems that, as with many others on here, you have a blind spot for that period and consider everything done in those years to be wholly positive.

    That must be why the MPs dumped Thatcher in 1990 and the electorate dumped the Conservative seven years later.

    No, the world didn't begin in 1997, 1979 or Year Zero. On the other hand, the Conservatives handed over an economy in vastly better shape to Labour at the end of Major's term, than Labour handed back in 2010.
  • Replacement of Blunkett as Sheffield Brightside & Hillsbrough Labour candidate is to be selected today from a shortlist of 4:
    Cllr Harry Harpham
    Cllr Leigh Bramall
    Cllr Jackie Drayton
    Mike Buckley frrom Movement for Change
  • Charles said:



    And the income from North Sea Oil contributed towards the massive restructuring that we needed to do to the economy in the 1980s. The Butskellite consensus of propping up failing industries with transfer payments had reached the end of the road

    We now have an Osbrown consensus of propping up wealth consumption via government borrowing, zero interest rates and subsidised house prices.

    With government borrowing over £100bn at the top of the economic cycle and a balance of payments deficit of over £90bn the end of that road is signaled.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

    This is illuminating:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/johann-lamont-quits-scottish-labour

    LOL that ed had written a "saviour of the Union" role for himself and had to be tactfully told that ‘you’re not well known here’.
  • Some background
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/london-called-shots-during-johann-lamont-tenure-1-3584124

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

    Andrea, many thanks. Once again, you are like our own pb equivalent of the Italian guy on X-Factor - head and shoulders above the UK talent!

    And the photo at the head of that article is superb - zombie embraces zombie!!
    That imminent embrace is chilling. Frankenstein monster vs Krankie clone.
  • stodge said:

    taffys said:

    Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

    And every spending increase.

    The world didn't begin in 1997 - decisions taken or not taken in the Thatcher-Major years are as much responsible for our current plight as those taken by Blair and Brown but it seems that, as with many others on here, you have a blind spot for that period and consider everything done in those years to be wholly positive.

    That must be why the MPs dumped Thatcher in 1990 and the electorate dumped the Conservative seven years later.

    No, the world didn't begin in 1997, 1979 or Year Zero. On the other hand, the Conservatives handed over an economy in vastly better shape to Labour at the end of Major's term, than Labour handed back in 2010.
    Indeed.

    But the Cameroons seemed unaware of that and bought into Brown's 'economic miracle' when a few hours looking through the ONS stats on borrowing, home ownership, trade deficits, industrial production and productivity would have shown that things were far from well with the economy even before Northern Rock became famous.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

    He is a backstabbing trougher par excellence. So Scottish labour personified. Murphy and labour are hated in Scotland , a severe drubbing is coming and a London patsy as leader will make it even worse.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    stodge said:

    taffys said:

    Every tax cut we got back then has come back to bite us now.

    And every spending increase.

    The world didn't begin in 1997 - decisions taken or not taken in the Thatcher-Major years are as much responsible for our current plight as those taken by Blair and Brown but it seems that, as with many others on here, you have a blind spot for that period and consider everything done in those years to be wholly positive.

    That must be why the MPs dumped Thatcher in 1990 and the electorate dumped the Conservative seven years later.

    No, the world didn't begin in 1997, 1979 or Year Zero. On the other hand, the Conservatives handed over an economy in vastly better shape to Labour at the end of Major's term, than Labour handed back in 2010.
    Oh, please!

    Major had already crashed the economy seven years before, he just got a few years to repair a bit of the damage.

    David, didn't you know it was taboo on PB to suggest or point out that voters aren't just motivated by economic factors?

    The Scottish referendum and low Tory poll ratings prove that the economy isn't the be all and end all of politics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    antifrank said:

    On the subject of the SNP being within ‘striking distance’, - can’t see many choice seats should Alex Salmond, decide to stand as an MP at GE15.

    He's apparently lining up Gordon.

    I suggested on yesterday's thread that he would be better deployed going for a Glasgow seat in order to help the SNP maximise their efforts to capitalise on the Yes vote, but JPJ2 gave three cogent reasons why not.
    Sky were reporting this morning that Brown would not stand.

    On topic, Murphy would help stem the losses in 2015 but his effect will be less pronounced in 2016 unless he commits to move to the Holyrood parliament either then or before.

    The whole structure's bodged and the cause of the current problem. Having two leaders in one party with overlapping authority is a recipe for friction and trouble. The Scottish leader having supposed authority over Westminster MPs from north of the border was never going to end well as those MPs inevitably look to their leader in Westminster first. The 'Scottish' leader should be the head of their Holyrood parliamentary delegation and no more (or, if outside the parliament, as Murphy is, their designated First Minister nominee for after the next election).
    Why would any idiot think that Brown would become Ed's tea boy as regional puppet. Some really really stupid people about.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Slightly off topic but one of the stories on the front page of the ST business section today is that Osborne is going to require UK banks to raise billions in additional capital. This, of course, is not unconnected with the publication of the EZ stress tests on their banks today which are expected to fail at least 10% of the relevant banking institutions (basically the big ones).

    We are therefore very likely to see further declines in bank lending at a time when the economy is losing momentum already, basically a repeat of 2010-11. The assumption that everything in the economic garden is going to look rosy (apart from the deficit which far too few people seem to care about) in May of next year looks increasingly misplaced to me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    That is Murphy's problem. Many Tories and neocons rate him highly. (Former) Scottish Labour voters- not so much.

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

    Exactly , he is despised in Scotland as a right wing troughing no good chancer.
  • malcolmg said:

    I've always rated Jim Murphy highly (as has fitalass. no friend of Labour) - he's unflappable, intellectually consistent, liked even by opponents, skilful in Parliament and, as evidenced by the helicopter crash, personally brave. But if Scottish Labour has an identity crisis, I wonder if they don't need Gordon Brown, as the best tub-thumping orator in a very long Scots Labour tradition. He'd be an uncomfortable partner for the Westminster Government (of any colour), but Scots won't see that as a drawback.

    He is a backstabbing trougher par excellence. So Scottish labour personified. Murphy and labour are hated in Scotland , a severe drubbing is coming and a London patsy as leader will make it even worse.
    The SNP talk a good fight against Labour but come GEs you invariably flop. Let's hope you buck that trend next year.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    stodge said:

    And you decided to come up with a meaningless jibe in response.

    Very typical.

    It seemed in keeping with the subject. Still, moving on.

    The UK has neither the scale of natural resource of a country like Norway, nor anywhere near as small a population to keep. This makes comparisons to it virtually meaningless and ill-considered.

    "In 1976 Britain faced financial crisis. The Labour government was forced to apply to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of nearly $4 billion. IMF negotiators insisted on deep cuts in public expenditure, greatly affecting economic and social policy."

    As you can see, and as any one who has debt problems knows, the luxury of saving is often off the table.


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DavidL said:

    Slightly off topic but one of the stories on the front page of the ST business section today is that Osborne is going to require UK banks to raise billions in additional capital. This, of course, is not unconnected with the publication of the EZ stress tests on their banks today which are expected to fail at least 10% of the relevant banking institutions (basically the big ones).

    We are therefore very likely to see further declines in bank lending at a time when the economy is losing momentum already, basically a repeat of 2010-11. The assumption that everything in the economic garden is going to look rosy (apart from the deficit which far too few people seem to care about) in May of next year looks increasingly misplaced to me.

    Does Mr Osborne have that power though? I thought bank regulation was one of the EU's powers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Lamont needed defenestration.

    What does seem unfair is that the person doing the defenestration seems to have under performed at least as substantially as Johann.

    The problem for Jin Murphy is he is a lot more credible as Labour leader than Ed.

    Why settle for just Scotland? Murphy will surely want to be in on the kill the night of the 7th May 2015.

    Scottish Labour chose Iain Gray then Johann Lamont. It'd be a surprise if the next occupant of the job is as terrible as those two, but Scottish Labour do have a real habit of surprising us.

    So, once we have identified someone worse than Lamont, there's our candidate. Who conceivably could be worse than Lamont?

    Murphy will not give up his £200K expenses for a job where your staff get sacked without you even being involved and you are told what to do and what not to do. His ego would never allow him to do that unless he gets guaranteed lots and lots of money.
  • DavidL said:

    Slightly off topic but one of the stories on the front page of the ST business section today is that Osborne is going to require UK banks to raise billions in additional capital. This, of course, is not unconnected with the publication of the EZ stress tests on their banks today which are expected to fail at least 10% of the relevant banking institutions (basically the big ones).

    We are therefore very likely to see further declines in bank lending at a time when the economy is losing momentum already, basically a repeat of 2010-11. The assumption that everything in the economic garden is going to look rosy (apart from the deficit which far too few people seem to care about) in May of next year looks increasingly misplaced to me.

    Indeed.

    We've passed the peak of the economic cycle.

    But people now expect spending increases and tax cuts.

    Inevitable after been told that we've had years of 'austerity' and that the economy is now bigger than before the last recession.

    Cameron's repeated lies about "paying down Britain's debts" have also encouraged that false complacency.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Most amusing to discover that TSE thinks that 'plebs' was a term of insult in Roman discussions.

    When in fact the plebians were around 99% of the Roman citizens including at the end of the Republic Cicero, Cato, Crassus, Pompey, Brutus, Cassius, Antony and Octavian.

    And I can assure everyone that in South Yorkshire an Establishment Tory lawyer who's father is a doctor, who went to boarding school and who lives in Dore is the epitome of posh.

    No matter what accent he puts on.


    That falls flat on its arse like all the other wannabe erudite attacks on TSE's Latinity which rather puzzlingly litter the site at the moment. He said it in English, in which it's an insult.

    Secondly Lewis and Short give as a secondary meaning:

    Transf., in gen.
    The great mass, the multitude: in Hyrcaniā, plebs publicos alit canes, optimates domesticos, Cic. Tusc. 1, 45, 108: plebem et infimam multitudinem delinire, id. Mil. 35, 95.—
    With accessory notion of contempt, the populace, the lower class or order, the mass (poet. and in post-Aug. prose) (my emphasis)

    Thirdly an insult can be an insult regardless of its being true of 99% of everybody. Consider the word "w_nker".

    Fourthly would-be pedants should not write "who's" for "whose".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Ishmael_X said:

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

    This is illuminating:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/johann-lamont-quits-scottish-labour

    LOL that ed had written a "saviour of the Union" role for himself and had to be tactfully told that ‘you’re not well known here’.
    That's a little bit harsh on Ed. Enough Scots knew who he was to trash his Edinburgh walkabout and tell him to feck off back to London....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Could any of our Scottish chums expand on what Lamont was getting at in her departure? What was behind her leaving? And who are these dinosaurs of Scottish Labour politics? (In my innocence, I thought they all were....)

    Two small points, she was not allowed to give her opinion on bedroom tax for a year while Ed made up his mind whilst SNP made hay and just recently the Scottish General secretary , one of her top aides was called to London and sacked without her even knowing.
    Scottish leader's job is not even up to being rated as a puppet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    Slightly off topic but one of the stories on the front page of the ST business section today is that Osborne is going to require UK banks to raise billions in additional capital. This, of course, is not unconnected with the publication of the EZ stress tests on their banks today which are expected to fail at least 10% of the relevant banking institutions (basically the big ones).

    We are therefore very likely to see further declines in bank lending at a time when the economy is losing momentum already, basically a repeat of 2010-11. The assumption that everything in the economic garden is going to look rosy (apart from the deficit which far too few people seem to care about) in May of next year looks increasingly misplaced to me.

    Does Mr Osborne have that power though? I thought bank regulation was one of the EU's powers.
    No, the regulation of UK banks is largely a matter for UK authorities and in particular the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is a different story in the EZ because, of course, the ECB stands behind those banks as the LOLR. Of course the UK is signed up to various international accords such as Basle II which has an impact on policy but decisions as to capital will inevitably be made by the LOLR, that is the BoE.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Morning all,

    Can anyone enlighten us on the system for electing Scottish Lab leader? Murphy isnt even in the parliament - does that matter?

    last time it was the unions that picked Lamont , MP's choice was runner up , members choice ignored. Normal Labour.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Most amusing to discover that TSE thinks that 'plebs' was a term of insult in Roman discussions.

    When in fact the plebians were around 99% of the Roman citizens including at the end of the Republic Cicero, Cato, Crassus, Pompey, Brutus, Cassius, Antony and Octavian.

    And I can assure everyone that in South Yorkshire an Establishment Tory lawyer who's father is a doctor, who went to boarding school and who lives in Dore is the epitome of posh.

    No matter what accent he puts on.


    No surprise to find TSE wrong on the classics again.

    Here's an interesting article on the subject. Note especially the last paragraph.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plebs
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited October 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Morning all,

    Can anyone enlighten us on the system for electing Scottish Lab leader? Murphy isnt even in the parliament - does that matter?

    last time it was the unions that picked Lamont , MP's choice was runner up , members choice ignored. Normal Labour.
    Who voted for Sturgeon to be FM ?

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/in-your-area/rutherglen-snp-welcome-sturgeons-coronation-4474289
This discussion has been closed.