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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

SystemSystem Posts: 11,694
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 40, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Labour majority of 20)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 744 (52%), Conservative 325 (23%), UKIP 252 (18%), Greens 60 (4%), Liberal Democrats 53 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited October 2014
    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Drat! second!!
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Incidentally does anyone know what sort of turnout there was for the Tory hustings last night? None of the reports I've seen even mention it...........
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Beverley_C said:

    Drat! second!!

    I am sorry, if I could delete a post I would
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    manofkent2014 said:

    Incidentally does anyone know what sort of turnout there was for the Tory hustings last night? None of the reports I've seen even mention it...........

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics · 5h 5 hours ago
    Wasn't aware national media were not allowed in to #rochesterstrood Conservative hustings meeting. Wrong & I disapprove #RSbyelection


  • Options
    HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    Ahhh, the fresh-faced optimism of the recently engaged.

    It's just like the Burgerbraukeller!
  • Options
    twistedtwisted Posts: 1
    What time should first results be seen?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    isam said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Incidentally does anyone know what sort of turnout there was for the Tory hustings last night? None of the reports I've seen even mention it...........

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics · 5h 5 hours ago
    Wasn't aware national media were not allowed in to #rochesterstrood Conservative hustings meeting. Wrong & I disapprove #RSbyelection
    The R4 reporter interviewed Sarah Wollaston as she left and she too disagreed with keeping the press out.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    Ahhh, the fresh-faced optimism of the recently engaged.

    It's just like the Burgerbraukeller!
    Flints not a bad sort, but freshed-face is pushing it
  • Options
    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Apparently a new polling low for Con + Lab tonight. So I reckon we will see Lab 32%, Con 29%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dems 8%
  • Options
    HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    Ahhh, the fresh-faced optimism of the recently engaged.

    It's just like the Burgerbraukeller!
    Flints not a bad sort, but freshed-face is pushing it
    Been around the block look is not to be sniffed at!

    Is it me or is she a bit kinda dusky skinned too?
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    isam said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Incidentally does anyone know what sort of turnout there was for the Tory hustings last night? None of the reports I've seen even mention it...........

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics · 5h 5 hours ago
    Wasn't aware national media were not allowed in to #rochesterstrood Conservative hustings meeting. Wrong & I disapprove #RSbyelection


    Ah well the local media were in there apparently and they didn't mention it.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Crime Figs June 13 to 14

    Rapes up 29%
    Knifepoint rapes up 48%
    Race hate crime up 4%
    Religious hate crime up 45%
    Total crime down 16%

    Looks like the old bill are on the case with late library books and parking on double yellows

  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    Crime Figs June 13 to 14

    Rapes up 29%
    Knifepoint rapes up 48%
    Race hate crime up 4%
    Religious hate crime up 45%
    Total crime down 16%

    Looks like the old bill are on the case with late library books and parking on double yellows

    Now, now don't do the Home Office propaganda officer's job for him. The crime figures for Fraud and Cyber crime have been hived off (and the cyber crime figures are doctored as well) to a new Fraud agency and they do not appear in the general crime figures released today.

    Labour claimed this morning that with them included crime is up.......
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%
  • Options
    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    manofkent2014 said:

    isam said:

    Crime Figs June 13 to 14

    Rapes up 29%
    Knifepoint rapes up 48%
    Race hate crime up 4%
    Religious hate crime up 45%
    Total crime down 16%

    Looks like the old bill are on the case with late library books and parking on double yellows

    Now, now don't do the Home Office propaganda officer's job for him. The crime figures for Fraud and Cyber crime have been hived off (and the cyber crime figures are doctored as well) to a new Fraud agency and they do not appear in the general crime figures released today.

    Labour claimed this morning that with them included crime is up.......
    Some of the Police forces have not been recording crime properly anyway. I think it was Kent Police force who were found not to be recording all crime reported and when they did it correctly crime was up. Most Police forces use civilian staff to answer the public, so how confident are we that these record the crime details properly, to ensure appropriate investigation. If Police have had to find 20% in savings, there will be some reductions in service.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    Yougov 41% would vote to stay in EU, 40% to leave, and we thought Scotland was tight!
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/522860513626443776
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    @HurstLlama

    Re Solo and Bridge, I've played plenty of both in my time but there's no comparison in the complexity.

    Solo is a fine game and lots of fun, but Bridge is infinitely more complex. It's kind of like the difference between draughts and chess - both immensely enjoyable, but few would doubt the latter has greater depth and richness.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,102
    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    In your long list of possible UKIP targets did you include Penistone & Stocksbridge ?

    If not, then you might find it interesting if you take a look.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    hmm.. Lord Dan Hodges' article on how low can Labour go and that 29% is not the floor is indeed timely...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    Greens on 7% with yougov, 1% behind the LDs
    https://twitter.com/Sun_Politics/status/522862099626598403
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    ENP 4.1
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    hmm.. Lord Dan Hodges' article on how low can Labour go and that 29% is not the floor is indeed timely...

    Must be an outlier :)

    BTW no Tory leads for 10 days on the trot :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    I think the next election looks like it will be decided by who falls the lowest! Talk about lack of a mandate, no UK government since the introduction of universal suffrage has been elected on only 31 or 32%!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    UKIP vote crashes by over 5% of its total in a single day. Is it all over for Farage?

    Maybe not quite yet.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Greens in news for being snubbed and up they bob.... interesting!!
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    RodCrosby said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    ENP 4.1
    erm, English National Parliament erm... ??
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    another_richard said:

    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    In your long list of possible UKIP targets did you include Penistone & Stocksbridge ?

    If not, then you might find it interesting if you take a look.
    Yes looks very big at 16/1, good spot
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    I have been quite pessimistic about the outlook for the future of the world economy in general and the European economy in particular over the next year or so suggesting this makes a significant slow down in the UK economy before the election likely.

    But now I see AEP is forecasting something similar I am assuming that I was wrong:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.html
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,317
    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    Disaster for Labour. And this in the wake of Lord Freud - arguably Miliband's most effectively planned political assault in months. Labour's problem is that the more Miliband looks a hopeless case, the more Labour voters will turn to UKIP as something - anything - to get at the Tories. This could turn frightfully bloody!
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010
    32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010
    32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010

    now click your red heels together... there's no place like islington, there's no place like ....
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll - 32% lowest Lab figure since mid-May 2010, plus new combined Lab/Con % low:

    CON 31%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

    ENP 4.1
    erm, English National Parliament erm... ??
    Effective number of parties
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    East European beggars who have turned part of Park Lane into a “slum” today demanded: “We’re EU citizens, give us houses”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/romanians-were-eu-citizens-give-us-houses-so-we-can-stop-sleeping-rough-at-park-lane-9794981.html

    We BADLY need a points system for EU migration.
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    hucks67 said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    isam said:

    Crime Figs June 13 to 14

    Rapes up 29%
    Knifepoint rapes up 48%
    Race hate crime up 4%
    Religious hate crime up 45%
    Total crime down 16%

    Looks like the old bill are on the case with late library books and parking on double yellows

    Now, now don't do the Home Office propaganda officer's job for him. The crime figures for Fraud and Cyber crime have been hived off (and the cyber crime figures are doctored as well) to a new Fraud agency and they do not appear in the general crime figures released today.

    Labour claimed this morning that with them included crime is up.......
    Some of the Police forces have not been recording crime properly anyway. I think it was Kent Police force who were found not to be recording all crime reported and when they did it correctly crime was up. Most Police forces use civilian staff to answer the public, so how confident are we that these record the crime details properly, to ensure appropriate investigation. If Police have had to find 20% in savings, there will be some reductions in service.
    Indeed there have been some significant credibility issues with the figures anyway although I don't think civilian staff will record the information any less accurately than officers would.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Solo is a game with a lot of complexity, but it is usually played by players who aren't up to its nuances.

    Even more than bridge.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    DavidL said:

    UKIP vote crashes by over 5% of its total in a single day. Is it all over for Farage?

    Maybe not quite yet.

    Isn't 5% of around 20% a 1 percentage point change? Statistical noise surely?
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    It looks as if the Greens, on 7% in this latest poll, have nicked a couple of percentage points from Labour recently.
    Assuming UKPR update their polling averages to include these latest figures, I would guess that Stephen Fisher's latest projection tomorrow morning is likely to show an unchanged picture with the Tories just edging ahead in terms of 2015 GE seats, unless the good Professor sees UKIP making something of a breakthrough, primarily at the Blues' expense.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited October 2014
    In the month of October with YouGov we've had a seven point Labour lead, a two point Tory lead (2 days later), Green's joint highest score of the year, Labour's lowest score since May 2010, Conservatives joint lowest score of the year and UKIP's highest score ever.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Re EU. 41% in favour 40% against and I'm sure by the time a campaign got underway with most parties supporting it you'd be talking at least 40/60 for staying in.

    So why doesn't Ed get his brains trust together to arrange the arguments for staying in and start selling it?

    It's a gaping open goal.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Labour Press Team ✔ @labourpress
    watch @angelaeagle on @bbcquestiontime tonight at 10.45 #bbcqt

    God no..Mercy...

    I'd rather read all Hugh's posts on PB in one go.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    "By-elections educate the senses, call into action the will, perfect the physical constitution, bring men (and women!) into such swift and close collision in critical moments that man measures man (and woman measures woman!)."
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The debates should be based on clear polling thresholds: 1st debate: 25 points, 2nd debate: 10 points, 3rd debate: 5 points.

    So that would be...

    1) Lab and Con
    2) Lab, Con, UKIP
    3) Lab, Con, UKIP, Lib Dems, Greens
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    Socrates said:

    DavidL said:

    UKIP vote crashes by over 5% of its total in a single day. Is it all over for Farage?

    Maybe not quite yet.

    Isn't 5% of around 20% a 1 percentage point change? Statistical noise surely?
    Yes it was a joke. Obviously not a good one. Sorry.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    DavidL said:

    I have been quite pessimistic about the outlook for the future of the world economy in general and the European economy in particular over the next year or so suggesting this makes a significant slow down in the UK economy before the election likely.

    But now I see AEP is forecasting something similar I am assuming that I was wrong:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.html

    Liked a stopped clock, even AEP could entirely accidentally be correct once.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lib Dems soar.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,102
    DavidL said:

    I have been quite pessimistic about the outlook for the future of the world economy in general and the European economy in particular over the next year or so suggesting this makes a significant slow down in the UK economy before the election likely.

    But now I see AEP is forecasting something similar I am assuming that I was wrong:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.html

    Weren't you predicting the FTSE100 to reach 7,500 this year, a few months ago ?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    If Lib Dems are going Green rather than Red it is another problem for Ed. (Assume not many UKKIPers/ Tories would switch Green). Could affect a few Marginals with reasonable Lib Dem presence e.g. Northampton North. Ealing, Pendle, Watford.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    edited October 2014
    DavidL said:

    UKIP vote crashes by over 5% of its total in a single day. Is it all over for Farage?

    Maybe not quite yet.

    the graph on the Wikipedia page was updated earlier today and has UKIP at 16% and higher than either this year's Euro elections or last year's locals. (It is averaged over a 2 week period, their average over the last week is a point higher).
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Roger said:

    Re EU. 41% in favour 40% against and I'm sure by the time a campaign got underway with most parties supporting it you'd be talking at least 40/60 for staying in.

    So why doesn't Ed get his brains trust togetherto arrange the arguments for staying in and start selling it?

    It's a gaping open goal.

    But given the state of his campaign I thought you were his 'brains trust' Roger? Are you not?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    antifrank said:

    Lib Dems soar.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522402890598858752
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    Solo is a game with a lot of complexity, but it is usually played by players who aren't up to its nuances.

    Even more than bridge.

    It's difficult enough to find three other players who know the rules, Frank, never mind three that appreciate its nuances.

    Like a lot of good card games, it has lost popularity to the point of near extinction. Much the same is true of nap, cribbage and kalookie, though I wouldn't rate any of them as high as solo.
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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    How many seats will the Greens contest. Would be worth the Tories paying deposits for all 650 seats.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Socrates said:

    The debates should be based on clear polling thresholds: 1st debate: 25 points, 2nd debate: 10 points, 3rd debate: 5 points.

    So that would be...

    1) Lab and Con
    2) Lab, Con, UKIP
    3) Lab, Con, UKIP, Lib Dems, Greens

    Any party who've won a Westminster by-election this Parliament should be eligibubble.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    Given what's been going on for the last 5 years that YouGov poll on EU membership is by no means disastrous for the pro-EU side. Could have got a lot worse.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/suspected-paedophiles-walking-free-after-7937130

    I passed on the names of 26 victims of grooming gangs, but my bosses did nothing, says former GMP detective
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Bad poll for LibLabCon - but it's just one poll.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    another_richard said:

    DavidL said:

    I have been quite pessimistic about the outlook for the future of the world economy in general and the European economy in particular over the next year or so suggesting this makes a significant slow down in the UK economy before the election likely.

    But now I see AEP is forecasting something similar I am assuming that I was wrong:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.html

    Weren't you predicting the FTSE100 to reach 7,500 this year, a few months ago ?
    Err, no, I don't think I have ever been brave enough to predict the FTSE. I may have gently taken the rise out of an occasional poster who has predicted at least 10 of the last 2 stock market crashes but I really have little feel about where the market is going. Its connection to the economy in general and the UK economy in particular is fairly tangential at best.

    I did predict that growth this year would exceed 3% in January and I think we will still manage that with what is in the bank already but I am more pessimistic about Q4 than I was.

    @Lennon. AEP being right twice a day strikes me as vanishingly unlikely.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    JohnLilburne said:

    DavidL said:

    UKIP vote crashes by over 5% of its total in a single day. Is it all over for Farage?

    Maybe not quite yet.

    the graph on the Wikipedia page was updated earlier today and has UKIP at 16% and higher than either this year's Euro elections or last year's locals. (It is averaged over a 2 week period, their average over the last week is a point higher).
    UKIP on the rise!
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    manofkent2014 said:

    isam said:

    Crime Figs June 13 to 14

    Rapes up 29%
    Knifepoint rapes up 48%
    Race hate crime up 4%
    Religious hate crime up 45%
    Total crime down 16%

    Looks like the old bill are on the case with late library books and parking on double yellows

    Now, now don't do the Home Office propaganda officer's job for him. The crime figures for Fraud and Cyber crime have been hived off (and the cyber crime figures are doctored as well) to a new Fraud agency and they do not appear in the general crime figures released today.

    Labour claimed this morning that with them included crime is up.......
    The ONS is quite clear:

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2014/stb-crime-stats--year-ending-june-2014.html#tab-Sexual-offences

    "It is difficult to obtain reliable information on the volume of sexual offences as it is known that a high proportion of offences are not reported to the police and changes in recorded figures may reflect changes in reporting or recording rates rather than actual victimisation.There are likely to be two main of factors in the rise in police recorded rape and sexual offences; an increase in the willingness of victims to come forward and report these crimes to the police, and an improvement in crime recording by the police for these offences."

    Unless you think rapes in Durham are actually up by 185% in a year, this seems likely.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    QT on the immigration "red lines"

    Angela Eagle spoke well
    Jeremy Hunt doesn't seem to think Cameron can do it
    Giles Fraser is a wally
    Ming Campbell the Lib Dem scratched record

    Isabel Oakeshott is speaking sense, Cameron cant do it, but she looks like she should do some buttons up!

    The only party on the up not represented
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    isam said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Drat! second!!

    I am sorry, if I could delete a post I would
    Thank you. That is very gentlemanly of you.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    @Grandiose

    "Unless you think rapes in Durham are actually up by 185% in a year..."

    Well it was a very fine summer, Grandy.

    Or maybe The Blagdon Amateur Rapist was let out?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    peter_from_putney said:

    It looks as if the Greens, on 7% in this latest poll, have nicked a couple of percentage points from Labour recently.

    In line with what I was picking up from my lefty chums and posted about three weeks back.

    Ed is making them seriously consider "what is the point of Labour?" He's a great recruiting sergeant for the Greens. If over the next few months, a Labour Govt. looks less and less likely, then I can certainly see many more people peeling away and voting how they want, rather than in the past, how they felt they should.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2014
    Liverpool 2 : The Shard 0

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5ee5d64-5547-11e4-b750-00144feab7de.html#slide0

    http://designinglibraries.org.uk/index.asp?PageID=431

    Second time in 12 months a building in The 'Pool has won a prestigious architectural prize against the London monstrosity...
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    RodCrosby said:

    Liverpool 2 : The Shard 0

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5ee5d64-5547-11e4-b750-00144feab7de.html#slide0

    http://designinglibraries.org.uk/index.asp?PageID=431

    Second time in 12 months a building in The 'Pool has won a prestigious architectural prize against the London monstrosity...

    Oh don't tell me they got another crooked referee?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    "...What I was picking up from my lefty chums."

    Is there something you wish to tell us, Mark?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    UKIP gain Sheppey (Swale) on swing from Con, Labour, and Loony...
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lennon said:

    UKIP gain Sheppey (Swale) on swing from Con, Labour, and Loony...

    Next door seat to Reckless.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    That didn't take long -

    I commented the other day on the fact that the Democrats are so desperate that they are runing commercials blaming the Republicans for Ebola.

    The Washington Post has awarded one of them 4 pinnochios, for being completely untrue.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    Tweet from Mark Pack suggesting Lib Dem has won in York - no idea if accurate or not.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    isam said:

    another_richard said:

    isam said:

    Caroline Flint was canvassing in Thurrock for this one... Labour must be taking it pretty seriously

    If UKIP win this ward tonight, Thurrock is ours next May

    In your long list of possible UKIP targets did you include Penistone & Stocksbridge ?

    If not, then you might find it interesting if you take a look.
    Yes looks very big at 16/1, good spot
    Now, barely half an hour later UKIP has shortened in P&S to just 10/1 !
    Either Shadsy is on here looking and acting on what's said and/or a fair bit of money has been wagered with the Magic Sign on precisely this bet.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    If it's a rerun.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    Marquee Mark The fact that it was Cameron who wanted the Greens in the debates not Miliband probably also hit Labour with switchers to the Greens
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    Sheppey Central (Swale) result:
    UKIP - 58.4% (+42.7)
    CON - 22.8% (-21.2)
    LAB - 16.9% (-15.2)
    OMRLP - 1.9% (-6.4)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited October 2014
    Lennon said:

    Sheppey Central (Swale) result:
    UKIP - 58.4% (+42.7)
    CON - 22.8% (-21.2)
    LAB - 16.9% (-15.2)
    OMRLP - 1.9% (-6.4)

    Looks like the Tories will be an even bigger price in R&S tmrw...

    Possibly 45-50% UKIP in Rochester is the move at 11/2 and 50-55% at 9/1
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    Roger They said the same about Better Together of course
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Lennon said:

    Sheppey Central (Swale) result:
    UKIP - 58.4% (+42.7)
    CON - 22.8% (-21.2)
    LAB - 16.9% (-15.2)
    OMRLP - 1.9% (-6.4)

    Way to go, UKIP!
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    W-Thurrock & S-Stifford (Thurrock) result:
    LAB - 50.3% (+1.4)
    UKIP - 34.6% (-0.7)
    CON - 15.1% (-0.7)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    Saving Private Ryan for me :)

    "By-elections educate the senses, call into action the will, perfect the physical constitution, bring men (and women!) into such swift and close collision in critical moments that man measures man (and woman measures woman!)."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    "...What I was picking up from my lefty chums."

    Is there something you wish to tell us, Mark?

    I get on with anyone, me.

    Except Derby County fans.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Would the Tories ever be so bold as to scrap national insurance?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Lennon said:

    W-Thurrock & S-Stifford (Thurrock) result:
    LAB - 50.3% (+1.4)
    UKIP - 34.6% (-0.7)
    CON - 15.1% (-0.7)

    Ooh.. not over yet in Thurrock
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    If it's a rerun.
    You got me.

    I thought This Week would be on by now!!
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I looked up Thurrock.

    It said

    is a unitary authority area with borough status in the English ceremonial county of Essex

    I have no idea what that means. Borough status? Ceremonial county? Unitary authority?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    Jeremy Hunt just stated he played Nick Clegg in mock TV debates
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,324
    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    W-Thurrock & S-Stifford (Thurrock) result:
    LAB - 50.3% (+1.4)
    UKIP - 34.6% (-0.7)
    CON - 15.1% (-0.7)

    Ooh.. not over yet in Thurrock
    Yes, that's pretty tough resistance from Labour there.

    UKIP will need Tory help to get over the line at the GE. Will they get it, or will it be 'Vote Tory, Get Ed'?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Thurrock Lab 903 UKIP 621 Con 270

    York seems that Labour have conceded defeat to Lib Dems but no official result yet
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    Saving Private Ryan for me :)

    "By-elections educate the senses, call into action the will, perfect the physical constitution, bring men (and women!) into such swift and close collision in critical moments that man measures man (and woman measures woman!)."
    You would prefer another target, a eurosceptic target? Then name the constituency! I grow tired of asking this so it will be the last time: *Where* is the UKIP base?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited October 2014
    Lennon said:


    Sheppey Central (Swale) result:
    UKIP - 58.4% (+42.7)
    CON - 22.8% (-21.2)
    LAB - 16.9% (-15.2)
    OMRLP - 1.9% (-6.4)
    )

    UKIP surge!
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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    MarqueeMark said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    "...What I was picking up from my lefty chums."

    Is there something you wish to tell us, Mark?

    I get on with anyone, me.

    Except Derby County fans.
    I'm one of them, want to start something?!?!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    edited October 2014
    woody662 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    "...What I was picking up from my lefty chums."

    Is there something you wish to tell us, Mark?

    I get on with anyone, me.

    Except Derby County fans.
    I'm one of them, want to start something?!?!
    I know you are... You're not alone either ;-)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    W-Thurrock & S-Stifford (Thurrock) result:
    LAB - 50.3% (+1.4)
    UKIP - 34.6% (-0.7)
    CON - 15.1% (-0.7)

    Ooh.. not over yet in Thurrock
    Yes, that's pretty tough resistance from Labour there.

    UKIP will need Tory help to get over the line at the GE. Will they get it, or will it be 'Vote Tory, Get Ed'?
    Its apparently the safest Labour ward in the constituency.. The UKIP candidate said if they won tonight it would almost be all over next year, so I don't think he was really expecting to win
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited October 2014
    Tim_B said:

    I looked up Thurrock.

    It said

    is a unitary authority area with borough status in the English ceremonial county of Essex

    I have no idea what that means. Borough status? Ceremonial county? Unitary authority?

    It's a unitary borough within a ceremonial county. What's there to get? ;)
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    If it's a rerun.
    You got me.

    I thought This Week would be on by now!!
    Of course, it would be worse if you're watching it with your loved one and your wife turns up....
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    I looked up Thurrock.

    It said

    is a unitary authority area with borough status in the English ceremonial county of Essex

    I have no idea what that means. Borough status? Ceremonial county? Unitary authority?

    It's a unitary borough within a ceremonial county. What's there to get? ;)
    Ebola? :-)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    RobD Listening to an hour of Jeremy Hunt and Angela Eagle droning on is a perfect cure for insomnia
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    If it's a rerun.
    You got me.

    I thought This Week would be on by now!!
    Of course, it would be worse if you're watching it with your loved one and your wife turns up....
    Hope you aren't speaking from experience, sir :')
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    MarqueeMark said:

    woody662 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    "...What I was picking up from my lefty chums."

    Is there something you wish to tell us, Mark?

    I get on with anyone, me.

    Except Derby County fans.
    I'm one of them, want to start something?!?!
    I know you are... You're not alone either ;-)
    Are you referring to me by any chance MM?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Being drunk and watching question time. Can life get any worse?

    If it's a rerun.
    You got me.

    I thought This Week would be on by now!!
    Of course, it would be worse if you're watching it with your loved one and your wife turns up....
    Hope you aren't speaking from experience, sir :')
    No chance - Heidi would bark and she'd slip out of the back door :-)
This discussion has been closed.