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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The key group in Rochester – the women who’ve yet to make u
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The key group in Rochester – the women who’ve yet to make up their minds
The battle is on in Rochester for the women DKs. See this from Survation. There are 2* as many as men. pic.twitter.com/7InXIsvfFo
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Welcome back to @oldnat, one of my favourite posters from years gone by. Hadn't noticed your return!
Have the Tories spotted something with their shortlist of two local women? Yep, I know Labour too have a female candidate.
Pulpstar I think you're wrong. Clacton's 51% turnout was on the back of a foregone Carswell win. This one will have the Conservatives piling in and because it could be close turnout should be well above Clacton.
I hear Tories saying this is going to be so close
Richard Nabavi wrote a much praised piece with the conclusions
Con +13 or
UKIP +3
I will give the Conservatives a 5 point start and odds of EVEN money
If you think its going to be close, this is fantastic value
Of those undecided overall twice as many are women. So there are let's say 50 women who voted Tory in 2010 are undecided. Even if all of those voted Tory it would not be enough.
In fact it would seem looking at the 2010 vote figures that nearly half of those 139 women did not vote at all. There are 201 undecided of which only 122 voted and we know that those who did not vote at the last election are less likely to vote in this election. So we can probably assume that around 50 of those women will not vote. That means the Tories have around 39 other undecided women to target who either voted UKIP, Labour or Libdem. I doubt they will get a quarter of them. So lets say 10 plus the 50 Tory women
So 60 of those women out of the 139 which is pretty good going but would still be short of the mark....
What's happened?
Instructions from HQ? Earful on the doorstep?
There you go, reported to the Electoral Commission and the police, not by me I hasten to add!
Then again, thinking about Reckless. I don't know how popular he is personally in Rochester but what I do know is that most people don't seem to get anywhere near as het up about him leaving the Tories and calling a by-election as the Conservative posters on PB seem to. I've heard people opining that it is much more "honourable" to call a by-election than to simply cross the floor in the manner of Shaun Woodward, for example. Sure, the members of Rochester Conservatives might see it differently - but non-activist voters? I'm not so sure they'll be that angry about the defection in itself, although obviously they will feel more anger if they are already hostile to Ukip.
The "I remember when you could call a spade a spade" vote.
" For one of the illusions of globalisation has been that the countries of the west could live indefinitely on the cheap credit and low inflation that the emerging economies of the East provided for us - that we could go on forever borrowing money from hard-working Chinese savers to buy the things those Chinese workers were making for us. "
Osborne had used the 'borrow money from China to pay for goods made in China' phrase previously, including at the Channel 4 'Chancellors Debate' prior to the general election.
In the fifth year of Osborne's chancellorship the UK has a government deficit of over £100bn and a balance of payments deficit of over £90bn.
This government's economic strategy is, in the description of the Chancellor, an 'illusion'.
"The "I remember when you could call a spade a spade" vote"
Made me smile.
I am bang to rights... he said "salivating"
Hugh • Posts: 832
August 31
We desperately need someone to get a grip at the top, to allow us all to get a grip on our country.Racists, anti-immigration obsessives and Powellites have been salivating at this, and on PB we have seen some posters excitedly pushing their nasty, narrow agenda for days now.
It's about far, far more than that. And the victims deserve better than this kind of vile trash
"Hugh called me a liar on the last thread for saying he had accused people of "drooling" over child abuse"
Stop being such a girl.
Chest out. You're a UKIPer now!
I think it's hugh you should be digging out as he was the one who complained, I was just correcting him
Newark turnout 52.79%
Clacton turnout 51.7%
Its going to be just over 50% I think judging by the tea leaves.
1 min 22 ^_~
Have time now, with referendum over, and accepting result.
Which nudges me towards the opinion that 62 (or 63) of the 'undecided but will likely vote' are actually not likely to vote (there's a known tendency of poll respondents to stretch the truth on their likelihood of doing the socially expected thing)
Actually, on closer inspection, the "did not vote in 2010" numbers are supposed to be 28. Which means that there are 34 respondents who consider themselves likely to vote, who didn't vote for any party in 2010, yet are not counted as 'did not vote'. So they voted but didn't vote?
This doesn't sound like a soppy lefty speaking Woger, have you been eating shredded wheat?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULzVLU9caVw
Aristotle, Archimedes, Demis Roussos, Nana Mouskouri, Pythagoras, Pericles Prince Philip, Prince Philip can you hear me?
Your boys took one hell of a beating!
We'll make a Ukip voter of him yet.
Two put it straight in the bin, the other reckons it was phoney...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybsRVQ0wfso
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-conference-91yearold-campaigner-harry-smith-steals-show-with-impassioned-welfare-defence-9753847.html
Wednesday's Telegraph front page:
Tories to cut inheritance tax before next election
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz74KGNCIAAZv1C.jpg
IHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a joke though right, what about my business?
At least these two have spent a little time working at the coal face of their local politics, unlike many PPC's.
Or are you bothered they are both women?
"Its's just a jump to the left....
AND THEN A STEP TO THE RIIIIGGHHHT"!!!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sg-vgGuTD8A
Surely LDs are 100% certain to block it?
Probably not the sort of thing that is very measurable, but it surely cannot hurt to try to get people involved and therefore even in a small way invested in the Tory candidate before the final vote. If they win, it will be regarded as well worth the cost even if it cannot be proven it had an impact, like Van Gaal subbing that goalkeeper in the 120th minute in the world cup. Sure, the guy brought on did save a couple of penalties so some would call it brilliant, but we'll never know if doing nothing would have led to the same result. Well I hope you learned your lesson.
There is zero chance that they will vote to cut IT.
Only thing I can think of is that Osborne puts it in the Budget and challenges LDs to vote it down but could he do that? Surely the whole Cabinet must agree the Budget?
If they hope to win it with Labour votes they should stop reminding Labour voters why they don't vote for the Tories in the first place.
I'd have thought they would have been better advised telling a story about someone's survival? Especially after Mid Staffs......
1. We will have had at GE2015 5 years of assets rising in value whereas IHT allowances remained unchanged.
2. This has increased IHT taken by Govt to over £4bn a year.
Now Cameron wakes up to the problem..... sheesh. He better be able to blame the Lib Dems if he wants to avoid the backlash.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedes
Is George hoping to repeat his 2007 trick?
According to @Roger, if you stick up for yourself when accused of lying you are "a girl" and men can't be bullied if they are tall
noun: chronology; plural noun: chronologies
the arrangement of events or dates in the order of their occurrence
In 2007, Labour ministers were writing 'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
Then George delivered his IHT trick
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
I'm still trying to work out what I did wrong today to be prevent from commenting on Roger's post, other than be the recipient of verbal abuse. Could @PBModerator enlighten me?
He certainly thinks that men being prosecuted for groping women is a lot of fuss about nothing.
LOL...
Given recent events I half expect that Boy George quote to become a Labour election poster. "Ed Miliband. Not creepy in any way".
Remember the LD policy - scrap the IHT threshold completely - tax the lot as income - and of course that'll mean anything over £150k at 50% as per Labour's new top rate.
So Tax on a £300k property will be approx £125k depending on other income if a sole beneficiary.
Tax on a £300k property today - zero.
But don't worry - LibLabCon are all the same. Unless you might be inheriting a property post May 2015!!!
You couldn't make it up......
Though it all depends on if the journalist picked the right people.
Though I'm not surprised, if you received a letter from the PM during a crucial byelection campaign anyone could react the same way.
Rule no.1 Never believe a politician's promise just before an election.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz7_dK8CUAA0NHa.jpg
Hellloooooooooooooooooo and good luck with your surgery
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: the UKIP surge continues - its highest ever rating with @YouGov. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18% LDEM 8%.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 2m2 minutes ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: the UKIP surge continues - its highest ever rating with @YouGov. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18% LDEM 8%.
And far from what some posters were claiming today -that a Tory win would be the end for UKIP, but on the other hand a Tory loss can be easily shrugged off, it seems that a loss would be a massive blow -especially since Cameron plans to get so personally involved. If they lose this, surely there will be a vote of no confidence?
Labour must be kicking themselves they don't have someone better than Ed Miliband. With a really good leader and the right wing vote split they would be preparing to party like it's 1997.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29620474
You can see her perform here
http://metro.co.uk/2014/10/14/forget-butt-twerking-sara-x-mills-can-make-her-boobs-dance-to-mozart-4905174/
Highest ever UKIP rating
Labour 34% (-)
Tory 30% (-1)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 8% (+1)
https://twitter.com/search?q=yougov&src=typd
These past few months have it bang on with the exception of Labour.
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-10-14/itv-news-investigation-finds-hundreds-of-child-abusers-walking-free-in-manchester-due-to-police-failings/
I'm not familiar with how they're supposed to treat a news report ITN. On the one hand, it's a rival, but on the other the BBC is supposed to work in the national interest. Do they just give it a day before it's reported or something? Presumably the papers will run with it tomorrow and they'll have to then cover it...