Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The key group in Rochester – the women who’ve yet to make u

2

Comments

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I also find it curious that a report of only 39 men being charged out of 2000 referrals is considered the fourth most important story on BBC News, behind the winner of a fiction prize....
  • sarcasm - lowest form of wit?


    Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe

    Thanks to UKIP working-class voices like Carswell + Reckless can FINALLY be heard over silver-spoon metros like Alan Johnson + Sajid Javid.
  • RodCrosby said:

    @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: the UKIP surge continues - its highest ever rating with @YouGov. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18% LDEM 8%.

    ENP 4.1
    GIN1138 said:

    @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: the UKIP surge continues - its highest ever rating with @YouGov. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18% LDEM 8%.

    Solid majority for Labour on 34% of the vote.

    Labour must be kicking themselves they don't have someone better than Ed Miliband. With a really good leader and the right wing vote split they would be preparing to party like it's 1997.
    A fair point. However is Ed required to keep the all-important Red Liberals on board though?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    So Labour is on Kinnock '92 levels, the Tories on Major '97 levels and the LDs doing worse than under David Steel, it really is all UKIP at the moment, Rochester ever more important, especially for Cameron
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    GIN1138 said:



    Solid majority for Labour on 34% of the vote.

    Labour must be kicking themselves they don't have someone better than Ed Miliband With a really good leader and they right wing vote split they would be preparing to party like it's 1997.

    Hey, if Miliband gets a solid majority, I think we might manage a good knees-up anyway. UKIP is nibbling at both parties, but still taking a bit more from the Tories; more importantly, nothing much is happening to the Lab-Con gap, with not much more than 6 months to go.

    What UKIP really needs to shake us all up further is another surge (say after Rochester) taking them into second place in a poll (presumably Survation). Could happen.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG LAB 344 CON 253 LD 21 EICIPM

    30 weeks to go
  • YouGov approaching Ashcroft levels of Lab&Con combined shares of the votes
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: the UKIP surge continues - its highest ever rating with @YouGov. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18% LDEM 8%.

    Solid majority for Labour on 34% of the vote.

    Labour must be kicking themselves they don't have someone better than Ed Miliband. With a really good leader and the right wing vote split they would be preparing to party like it's 1997.
    Ed had to be elected in order to kill New Labour and reunite the left, he was the only one from the previous government not to have been tainted by it's actions.
    David would never have reunited the left, with him the New Labour party would have been in much more serious trouble.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Tonights YG LAB 344 CON 253 LD 21 EICIPM

    30 weeks to go

    I knew UKIP would come in handy. A defect a month between now and the election will do.
  • Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    GIN1138 said:



    Solid majority for Labour on 34% of the vote.

    Labour must be kicking themselves they don't have someone better than Ed Miliband With a really good leader and they right wing vote split they would be preparing to party like it's 1997.

    Hey, if Miliband gets a solid majority, I think we might manage a good knees-up anyway. UKIP is nibbling at both parties, but still taking a bit more from the Tories; more importantly, nothing much is happening to the Lab-Con gap, with not much more than 6 months to go.

    What UKIP really needs to shake us all up further is another surge (say after Rochester) taking them into second place in a poll (presumably Survation). Could happen.

    You big tease, Nick.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    sarcasm - lowest form of wit?


    Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe

    Thanks to UKIP working-class voices like Carswell + Reckless can FINALLY be heard over silver-spoon metros like Alan Johnson + Sajid Javid.

    Pitty he forgot Chuka Umunna.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    Ohh April 2015, one month before the next election and on a budget that will (or not) be voted two months before the next election.
    Pre-election promises, pre-election promises, what do you think that will make people believe them.

    You know he should have kept his powder dry for then (since he didn't reveal it 2 weeks ago at the conferences), but Rochester is a priority for him over the next election.
    If he loses Rochester he wont get to the next election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    sarcasm - lowest form of wit?
    .

    Well it's still some level of wit then, which is better than nothing I should think.
  • Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited October 2014
    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue the bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2
  • Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited October 2014
    Hillary Clinton gave a speech at UNLV yesterday, saying - amongst other things - that higher education should not be a privilege, but should be available to everyone.

    Her fee for the speech - $225,000.

    It's the hypocrisy of it
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue to bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    I wonder if the economy crashes before the next election, the world economy isn't looking healthy at the moment. If it does the Tories will face a black wednesday moment.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Channel 4 have been in Rochester asking constituents about David Cameron's open primary letter!

    Two put it straight in the bin, the other reckons it was phoney...

    Thing looking up for UKIP when even channel 4 couldn't find one person with a good word for Cammo.
    To be fair to the Conservatives, only 50% of the women interviewed put the letter straight in the bin, compared to 100% of the men. So maybe the thread header is on the right track
    And the other woman who read it didn't believe him.
    Though it all depends on if the journalist picked the right people.

    Though I'm not surprised, if you received a letter from the PM during a crucial byelection campaign anyone could react the same way.
    Rule no.1 Never believe a politician's promise just before an election.
    I must say, I'm surprised not to have seen any vox pops tapping into this vast reservoir of hatred there's meant to be for Mark Reckless in this constituency. I'm beginning to feel (utterly unscientifically, and I could be wrong) that the Tories are in for a big boot up the arse here.

    And far from what some posters were claiming today -that a Tory win would be the end for UKIP, but on the other hand a Tory loss can be easily shrugged off, it seems that a loss would be a massive blow -especially since Cameron plans to get so personally involved. If they lose this, surely there will be a vote of no confidence?

    I don't think the Conservatives on here are anywhere near as confident this will be a close thing as they make out
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Tim_B said:

    Hillary Clinton gave a speech at UNLV yesterday, saying - amongst other things - that higher education should not be a privilege, but should be available to everyone.

    Her fee for the speech - $225,000.

    It's the hypocrisy of it

    Why are people paying politicians to make a speech?
    There is nothing more boring than a politician making a speech.
    They should be paying the audience.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    On that Clinton speech:

    "On Monday, event organizers argued that the fee was worth it because the event would raise more money than the foundation would spend."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue to bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    I wonder if the economy crashes before the next election, the world economy isn't looking healthy at the moment. If it does the Tories will face a black wednesday moment.
    The fact that Osborne has recently been trying to prepare us for at the least a slowdown makes me think Tory efforts to campaign on the economy will be pretty fruitless. Sure people can point to all the better news and stats from the last year - and stay clear of any mention of original goals on the deficit - but if the news is full of talk of much less growth, it's not a fertile ground for a message of how wonderfully the Tories have managed the economy, fairly or not.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited October 2014

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
    Fine with me - especially if it hinders the little englanders in Rochester!!! I've bet more on Tory TBA than on Rev Oswald already........ madness but hey, heart over head....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    I still don't understand the point of a primary between two party-picked candidates with identical views.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
    Really? They're not going to get close to that are they?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
    They received about 21,940 votes in the election so that's close to the result.
  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue the bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    I doubt if any Opposition on 34% at this point can realistically expect to win a majority in May 2015. Labour's "firewall" keeps on drifting downwards.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    Looks like TSE backed the wrong part of Ireland.

    Both parts of Ireland are sitting ok right now. Odds on a Republic draw in Gelsenkirchen were probably quite long once the match went into injury time!

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
    They received about 21,940 votes in the election so that's close to the result.
    If we find out the number its got to be a good indicator of how they'll do hasn't it? Or will lots of non Tories send them back for a laugh? Its open to anti Tory voters picking the weakest one isn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited October 2014
    Speedy Well being in power in the crash does not seem to have done Labour too much harm has it even when they bailed out the banks. The biggest slowdown looks like being in the eurozone anyway, the UK has the fastest growth in the G7. Boris is also a far more electorally popular proposition than Miliband or even Cameron
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Socrates I assume they differ on some issues, the primary gives the chance to explain them and town hall meetings and on the doorstep and gain name recognition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    SeanF It is entirely because the Tories are leaking votes to UKIP rather than any enthusiasm for Miliband, even from most of his own Shadow Cabinet
  • Neil said:

    antifrank said:

    Looks like TSE backed the wrong part of Ireland.

    Both parts of Ireland are sitting ok right now. Odds on a Republic draw in Gelsenkirchen were probably quite long once the match went into injury time!

    Ireland's group is an absolute dogfight. Germany will come through but it's take your pick from Ireland, Scotland and Poland. Big game at Parkhead coming up - has score draw written all over it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Telegraph bloke on Newsnight reckons grubby little Tory Committee trying to rush through massive constitutional changes in 10 minutes is obscene
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    I still don't understand the point of a primary between two party-picked candidates with identical views.
    The choice will be on perceived personal qualities.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    oldnat said:

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?
    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue the bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    Labour are so rotten do you really think 34% would even worry them?
  • Socrates said:

    oldnat said:

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?
    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    Wasn't that his point?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:

    Families should be able to pass a family home on to their children tax-free, David Cameron said as he indicated the inheritance tax threshold could rise before the election next May.

    The Prime Minister said middle-class families should be spared the 40 per cent death tax on houses where they had lived for many years.

    He wanted to "shoehorn" into his final Budget a policy to increase the £325,000 inheritance tax threshold, which is expected to take place next March.

    That could see the allowance raised as early as April 2015, when the new tax year begins.
    "Inheritance tax should [only] be paid by the very wealthy, and I think you should be able to pass a family home on to your children rather than leave it to the taxman," Mr Cameron told a charity conference in London.

    "The last government allowed you to pass it between husband and wife, so the effective threshold was £650,00, but I have got ambitions and would like to see that go further."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11163036/Inheritance-tax-threshold-could-rise-to-1m-next-April-Cameron-hints.html

    All a bit airy fairy - looks like a personal finance journalist is bigging up his story from a few comments at a Age UK conference, most likely another manifesto commitment and at best perhaps raising the threshold to say £350k in the pre-election Budget if the Lib Dems wear it - wouldn't cost much at all to do.
    The Times are leading with it as well
    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?
    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    Wasn't that his point?
    EDIT: misread the "outwith" bit. Sorry.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:
    I never suggested she pocketed the money - no matter what you think of the Clintons they are not that grasping.

    But to give a speech and say that higher education should not be for the rich, and have someone stroke a check for $225,000 - it doesn't matter who the payee is, it's hypocritical.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Itajai said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue the bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    Labour are so rotten do you really think 34% would even worry them?
    34% for Labour would be fantastic. Why would it worry them?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Itajai It would after a few years in power taking unpopular decisions and they move closer to 25%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I wonder, if there is a vote of no confidence in Cameron when will the date of it be.
    The rules say at the earliest possible, say Brady gets the letters on Friday the 21st of November will it be on Monday the 24th?
    Oh and does Cameron have any hopes of winning the vote?
    152 MP's need to vote against him and there are always around 100 rebels usually, if you add those afraid after Rochester and those who will stab him in the back I think he will lose.

    Then for the new leader, there is the first ballot and the second ballot which I think have to happen on a Thursday or a Tuesday, and then it goes to the party members.
    All this will run until Christmas, which might be beneficial for the new leader to get some rest and a goodwill period over the holidays.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Itajai said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories and UKIP combined are on 48%, Labour on 34%. It would be the lowest total for any incoming Labour government since the war and once Labour has to continue the bitter medicine to tackle the deficit leaking votes to the Greens and UKIP and with a Tory Party led by Boris, we would surely be in Hollande territory within a year or 2

    Labour are so rotten do you really think 34% would even worry them?
    34% now probably means c31% on the day, similar to their performance in local elections.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
    They received about 21,940 votes in the election so that's close to the result.
    And they received more than 23,604 votes in Rochester and Strood at the 2010 election. Bear in mind that the Totnes primary was in 2009, so there's no particular reason to expect that the turnout would have been better then than in R&S now.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2014
    Can anyone guess what the #1 UK hashtag, trending on twitter right now is?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    The Conservatives are sending out 75,000 letters in Rochester for the primary.

    What do we think is a respectable number of returns?

    Equal to or more than they received in Totnes, which was 16,497.
    They received about 21,940 votes in the election so that's close to the result.
    If we find out the number its got to be a good indicator of how they'll do hasn't it? Or will lots of non Tories send them back for a laugh? Its open to anti Tory voters picking the weakest one isn't it?
    The 2 candidates are both equal, that's the result of the selection process (did you really think the Tory party was going to let the voters choose the type of candidate?).
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out today showed just what damage the hair brained idea of sanctions on Russia is doing to Euroland.

    On the markets, looks like we're nearing the end of the first part of the correction. I favour S&P1869 for a temporary low (allow for 1841), followed by a choppy rally, and then renewed falls to 1738 at the least, possibly 1627 area. Am looking for that to complete around the 20th November, and then we should be good for a year / year and a bit bull market on US stocks to complete the whole rally from March 2009. Certainly the next 6 weeks are critical to the long term outlook.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    Pong said:

    Can anyone guess what the #1 UK hashtag, trending on twitter right now is?

    no idea

    EDIT: I was going to say the Apprentice.. but it seemed too obvious.. but that's what is top trending on my twitter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Pong Sir Alan by any chance?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out today showed just what damage the hair brained idea of sanctions on Russia is doing to Euroland.

    On the markets, looks like we're nearing the end of the first part of the correction. I favour S&P1869 for a temporary low (allow for 1841), followed by a choppy rally, and then renewed falls to 1738 at the least, possibly 1627 area. Am looking for that to complete around the 20th November, and then we should be good for a year / year and a bit bull market on US stocks to complete the whole rally from March 2009. Certainly the next 6 weeks are critical to the long term outlook.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel · 24m24 minutes ago
    Former deputy chairman of Rochester and Strood Conservatives Kenneth Bamber has joined #UKIP.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The Tories will announce a big new policy on freedom of movement in the European Union, David Cameron told his MPs tonight.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/tory-mps-promised-big-bang-announcement-on-eu-migration/
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    HYUFD said:

    This is why it is very sensible of the Tories to ensure their final 2 candidates were both women and relatively local

    Local is great, but having only women on the ballot throws away the 'UKIP is sexist' card.

    Having a ballot at all throws away the 'inconveniencing the electorate' card, as well looking shiftily like one of those fake 'market research' questionnaires.

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Channel 4 have been in Rochester asking constituents about David Cameron's open primary letter!

    Two put it straight in the bin, the other reckons it was phoney...

    Thing looking up for UKIP when even channel 4 couldn't find one person with a good word for Cammo.
    To be fair to the Conservatives, only 50% of the women interviewed put the letter straight in the bin, compared to 100% of the men. So maybe the thread header is on the right track
    election.
    I must say, I'm surprised not to have seen any vox pops tapping into this vast reservoir of hatred there's meant to be for Mark Reckless in this constituency. I'm beginning to feel (utterly unscientifically, and I could be wrong) that the Tories are in for a big boot up the arse here.
    I thought that hatred of Mark Reckless by Tory members was all too real (our very own TSE being an example), but so what? Their membership has shrunk drastically and is old. Reckless' chief crime is putting the voters through an unnecessary by-election, but is a known quantity at least. They can't hate him that much if they elected him originally. Giving the Tories a kick will endear him to a lot of Labour supporters and non-voters.

    Additionally, UKIP won't be fighting on two fronts as in Newark and Clacton/H&M.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    “I have stood by Israel through thick and thin, through the good years and the bad. I have sat down with Ministers and senior Israeli politicians and urged peaceful negotiations and a proportionate response to prevarication, and I thought that they were listening. But I realise now, in truth, looking back over the past 20 years, that Israel has been slowly drifting away from world public opinion. The annexation of the 950 acres of the West Bank just a few months ago has outraged me more than anything else in my political life, mainly because it makes me look a fool, and that is something that I resent.

    Turning to the substantive motion, to be a friend of Israel is not to be an enemy of Palestine. I want them to find a way through, and I am delighted by yesterday’s reconstruction package for Gaza, but with a country that is fractured with internal rivalries, that shows such naked hostility to its neighbour, that attacks Israel by firing thousands of rockets indiscriminately, that risks the lives of its citizens through its strategic placing of weapons and that uses the little building material that it is allowed to bring in to build tunnels, rather than homes, I am not yet convinced that it is fit to be a state and should be recognised only when there is a peace agreement. Under normal circumstances, I would oppose the motion tonight; but such is my anger over Israel’s behaviour in recent months that I will not oppose the motion. I have to say to the Government of Israel that if they are losing people like me, they will be losing a lot of people,”

    Richard Ottaway, MP earlier today.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    #LondonEbolaOutbreak
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TimB Tables were taken by wealthy donors, not students and much of the Foundations' work at the university goes to funding scholarships and bursaries
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    The Tories will announce a big new policy on freedom of movement in the European Union, David Cameron told his MPs tonight.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/tory-mps-promised-big-bang-announcement-on-eu-migration/

    I read that during the weekend didn't I?
    I read somewhere that last week's byelections have forced the government to draft some policy plans or something on freedom of movement.
    Anyway I can guess the date of the announcement, the 19th of November.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    #LondonEbolaOutbreak

    #Fandabbydozy
  • The front page of the Sun is for my fellow fans of classical music, especially Mr Nabavi

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz7_dK8CUAA0NHa.jpg

    The boobs are all right, but the tattoos are extremely off-putting.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out tod.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
    But what about imports to Russia? These would be much more expensive, if they can get hold of them at all. It would hurt exporters as well, though.

    Wouldn't it be funny if Russia used this devaluation to re-build their industry?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pong said:

    #LondonEbolaOutbreak

    Yeah, Rick Perry is coming.
    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/14/politics/perry-in-europe-during-ebola/

    He's supposingly running for President, but in the middle of a crisis he has to go on a vacation to europe, as I said a long time ago Perry has a G.W.Bush class IQ.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out tod.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
    But what about imports to Russia? These would be much more expensive, if they can get hold of them at all. It would hurt exporters as well, though.

    Wouldn't it be funny if Russia used this devaluation to re-build their industry?
    Well Russia has a long way to become competitive by devaluation.
    In 2000 the rate was 30 Rubbles to the Dollar, now it's 40 to the Dollar, in reality looking at the inflation rates between America and Russia over the same period it should be 130 to the Dollar.

    About trade with Russia, exports to Russia are mostly banned or simply the russians aren't buying them because the west is unfriendly, but imports from Russia are not because it's mostly oil and gas.

    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    ...and in Rochester the average is £225,000.

    Snappy Tory election poster:

    "We look after people whose houses are worth three times yours."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


    Re Mansion Tax Nick

    For a party that I believe is big on "Relative Poverty" isn't it a rather inconsistent to have a blanket £2m figure for Mansion Tax across the country?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Speedy said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out tod.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
    But what about imports to Russia? These would be much more expensive, if they can get hold of them at all. It would hurt exporters as well, though.

    Wouldn't it be funny if Russia used this devaluation to re-build their industry?
    Well Russia has a long way to become competitive by devaluation.
    In 2000 the rate was 30 Rubbles to the Dollar, now it's 40 to the Dollar, in reality looking at the inflation rates between America and Russia over the same period it should be 130 to the Dollar.

    About trade with Russia, exports to Russia are mostly banned or simply the russians aren't buying them because the west is unfriendly, but imports from Russia are not because it's mostly oil and gas.

    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.
    Russia imports about the same amount of 'stuff' - in dollar terms - as Belgium.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    A bad read for the Tories from start to finish:

    "A Tory from the constituency calls this “C2 land”. Voters here had received the David Cameron letter, pre-paid envelope enclosed, for the constituency-wide primary. Several told me it had gone straight in the bin.

    Around here, Ukip support is easy to find. This by-election may come down to whether the Labour vote here collapses into Ukip’s, pushing Mark Reckless over the line."

    Key words "C2 land", UKIP on the national opinion polls is level with Labour and the Tories with C2's.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out tod.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
    But what about imports to Russia? These would be much more expensive, if they can get hold of them at all. It would hurt exporters as well, though.

    Wouldn't it be funny if Russia used this devaluation to re-build their industry?
    Well Russia has a long way to become competitive by devaluation.
    In 2000 the rate was 30 Rubbles to the Dollar, now it's 40 to the Dollar, in reality looking at the inflation rates between America and Russia over the same period it should be 130 to the Dollar.

    About trade with Russia, exports to Russia are mostly banned or simply the russians aren't buying them because the west is unfriendly, but imports from Russia are not because it's mostly oil and gas.

    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.
    Russia imports about the same amount of 'stuff' - in dollar terms - as Belgium.
    True,their share of imports relative to their economic size is small, that is why it will be easy for them to find substitutes to western imports.

    Goodnight.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Speedy said:

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.

    Yes: but Rosneft and Lukoil and Gazprom pay in US Dollars for their drilling rigs from Seadrill or Transocean, and their pressure pumping equipment from Halliburton, and their artificial lift from Weatherford, etc. etc. As I'm sure Richard Tyndall will confirm, the currency of oil services is the US dollar, so the price of services to get oil out of the ground is going up as the Ruble goes down.

    Also, don't forget that the vast majority of Russian oil is sold to Russians. If the Ruble is falling faster than the price of oil, then oil is getting more expensive to Russian industry in Rubles, eliminating much of the benefit of a falling currency.

    As an aside, German industrial production is going to bounce very sharply in September - up at least 3% sequentially, simply on the back of very solid auto production numbers that have already been announced.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Well bring on the 20th November! Will Rochester go down as one of the iconic by-elections? Can't wait for the next 5 and a bit weeks.

    Messy interference from Brussels in the proposed Catalonia referendum which is now off. What an anti-democratic force the EU has become. I can only hope the Italians demanding a referendum on the Euro get their wish before any more destruction is visited upon its economy:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/14/italians-demanding-referendum-on-euro-only-the-people-can-save-europe/

    And the latest economic data out tod.

    Well I can tell you that the russian sanctions have hit the german economy hard as much as the 2008 crash did.
    I moaned that the sanctions signaled the end of globalization and I was right.

    The only good thing is that the oil prices are going down thanks to the americans replaying the 1985 trick on the russians again. The problem is that Russia is a capitalist country, they can simply devalue their currency to reflect lower oil prices and indeed their currency has fallen by more that the price of oil, so they are getting more rubbles per barrel than before.
    But I wont shed a tear for the Saudis over the price of oil.
    But what about imports to Russia? These would be much more expensive, if they can get hold of them at all. It would hurt exporters as well, though.

    Wouldn't it be funny if Russia used this devaluation to re-build their industry?
    Well Russia has a long way to become competitive by devaluation.
    In 2000 the rate was 30 Rubbles to the Dollar, now it's 40 to the Dollar, in reality looking at the inflation rates between America and Russia over the same period it should be 130 to the Dollar.

    About trade with Russia, exports to Russia are mostly banned or simply the russians aren't buying them because the west is unfriendly, but imports from Russia are not because it's mostly oil and gas.

    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.
    Russia imports about the same amount of 'stuff' - in dollar terms - as Belgium.
    True,their share of imports relative to their economic size is small, that is why it will be easy for them to find substitutes to western imports.

    Goodnight.
    Last time the oil price crashed, it broke the USSR.

    http://www.aei.org/issue/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/the-soviet-collapse/
  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


    So, normal UK politics. All about London's interests, and everywhere else suffers the consequences.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014
    Speedy said:

    A bad read for the Tories from start to finish:

    "A Tory from the constituency calls this “C2 land”. Voters here had received the David Cameron letter, pre-paid envelope enclosed, for the constituency-wide primary. Several told me it had gone straight in the bin.

    Around here, Ukip support is easy to find. This by-election may come down to whether the Labour vote here collapses into Ukip’s, pushing Mark Reckless over the line."

    Key words "C2 land", UKIP on the national opinion polls is level with Labour and the Tories with C2's.
    Shortly after Mr Reckless' defection, BBC South Today did a piece focused on the Conservatives reaction to Mr Reckless' decision. It did not show the Conservatives in a very good light! (voxpop at 2m16s)

    http://youtu.be/mEK52Pd9Pc0

    Mr Reckless has his own YouTube channel.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/markreckless1/videos

  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


    Re Mansion Tax Nick

    For a party that I believe is big on "Relative Poverty" isn't it a rather inconsistent to have a blanket £2m figure for Mansion Tax across the country?
    Which country is the "Mansion Tax" to apply to? As usual Westminster parties are unclear on this. Westminster would need to create a new tax-raising bureaucracy were it to try to apply it (in their usual ignorance) outwith England.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    oldnat said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


    Re Mansion Tax Nick

    For a party that I believe is big on "Relative Poverty" isn't it a rather inconsistent to have a blanket £2m figure for Mansion Tax across the country?
    Which country is the "Mansion Tax" to apply to? As usual Westminster parties are unclear on this. Westminster would need to create a new tax-raising bureaucracy were it to try to apply it (in their usual ignorance) outwith England.
    Think they are making it up as they go along, but last I heard Scotland was exempt
  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136
    isam said:

    oldnat said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    oldnat said:



    I'm not really up to date with London house prices, but outwith its baleful influence how many owners of £650,000 {I'm assuming you missed a zero} houses vote anything other than Tory anyway?

    I doubt that's true. A three bed flat in London would probably be around that price.
    It's a policy very specific to London. I doubt if more than 5% of homes in my (prosperous Midlands) constituency would benefit. The average price in Beeston, the largest town in the area, is £214K:

    http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/browse/nottingham/beeston/


    Re Mansion Tax Nick

    For a party that I believe is big on "Relative Poverty" isn't it a rather inconsistent to have a blanket £2m figure for Mansion Tax across the country?
    Which country is the "Mansion Tax" to apply to? As usual Westminster parties are unclear on this. Westminster would need to create a new tax-raising bureaucracy were it to try to apply it (in their usual ignorance) outwith England.
    Think they are making it up as they go along, but last I heard Scotland was exempt
    And Northern Ireland (which doesn't even have Council Tax)? That parties who want to govern the UK are obviously so totally incompetent is somewhat depressing.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Speedy said:



    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-13/russia-china-sign-currency-swap-agreement-to-double-100b-trade.html

    wouldn't bet against China investing in Oil services, hiring western experts, selling to Russia?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    ...and in Rochester the average is £225,000.

    Snappy Tory election poster:

    "We look after people whose houses are worth three times yours."

    How did your expenses as an MP compare to the average income in your former constituency?
  • Socrates - not at all. No worries.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Speedy said:



    The russians can substitute most of the consumer and industrial goods by local industry or by asian producers, example since the russians can't buy iPhones they buy Samsung or instead of Microsoft Windows they use Linux ect ect.
    The West is only about 40% of the world economy and an even smaller share of world manufacturing, most things are made in China and they don't care.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-13/russia-china-sign-currency-swap-agreement-to-double-100b-trade.html

    wouldn't bet against China investing in Oil services, hiring western experts, selling to Russia?
    In the long term, yes.

    But if you want an ultra deep water rig this side of 2020, capable of drilling off shore in the Arctic, your choices are companies from Norway, America, and Switzerland (and the last one is really an American company domiciled in Switzerland for tax purposes)
  • Cameron claims that it is UKIP who are going to turn the R&S by election into a media circus but it is Cameron who is going there once a week and who expects 25 yes 25 of his MPs to be there everyday of the campaign. But of course its not a 'stunt'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Also in the Guardian how recently re-elected Bolivian President proves 'socialism doesn't damage economies'
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/14/evo-morales-reelected-socialism-doesnt-damage-economies-bolivia
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Cameron claims that it is UKIP who are going to turn the R&S by election into a media circus but it is Cameron who is going there once a week and who expects 25 yes 25 of his MPs to be there everyday of the campaign. But of course its not a 'stunt'

    And neither is the primary, of course.

    Shame the election of Carswell meant the Tories had to move the writ before they've selected their candidate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited October 2014
    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 7 m

    #UKIP also first in aggregate vote for GB by-elections in 2013 - Eastleigh and South Shields: UKIP 26.5%, Lab 25.0%.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522172192151568384

  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136
    Quite enjoyed my first session back here for a while. As I used to say in the old days - Nytol.
  • oldnat said:

    Quite enjoyed my first session back here for a while. As I used to say in the old days - Nytol.

    Welcome back, and all the best with your operation! Get well soon!
  • HYUFD said:
    And I don't think that's particularly accurate. For example it includes Rochester & Strood and we know the poll there has UKIP ahead. If Rochester is in the frame in some way so is Chatham, Gillingham, Gravesend and Dartford. If Folkestone & Thanet are in the frame then Dover too should in some form be in the frame and so we go on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    ManofKent2014 Yes, but all those seats could be in the frame if UKIP momentum continues, though clearly at the top end of expectations 30 seats could well give Farage the balance of power
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    How does telling a story about how the biggest improvement in the NHS was that you got morphine to ease the pain as you die give one confidence in the much vaunted institution.
    Harry Smith was talking about how things were like before the NHS - cancer patients screaming with pain because they couldn't buy the morphine, his own little sister dying as a child. He said "Mr Cameron, keep your mitts off my NHS" and the audience's inference is supposed to be that Cameron wants to privatise the NHS. The Labour Party seems to think that the voters are stupid enough to think such a thing, which is why Liz McInnes repeated the line when she was elected MP for Heywood & Middleton last week.

    Mr Smith, how dare you accuse my leader of not caring about the NHS!?!

  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    JohnLoony said:

    How does telling a story about how the biggest improvement in the NHS was that you got morphine to ease the pain as you die give one confidence in the much vaunted institution.
    Harry Smith was talking about how things were like before the NHS - cancer patients screaming with pain because they couldn't buy the morphine, his own little sister dying as a child. He said "Mr Cameron, keep your mitts off my NHS" and the audience's inference is supposed to be that Cameron wants to privatise the NHS. The Labour Party seems to think that the voters are stupid enough to think such a thing, which is why Liz McInnes repeated the line when she was elected MP for Heywood & Middleton last week.

    Mr Smith, how dare you accuse my leader of not caring about the NHS!?!

    I just thought it was ironic that they chose a story type where both before and after the creation of the NHS the patient still dies (i.e. Cancer survival rates are still not great) and the only difference is today the NHS pays for you to be high as a kite. Surely a story about the survival of say a child after the creation of the NHS who would have been lost beforehand would have been a far more potent story........?
  • The fact that a over a quarter of the (8/30 seats) that could go UKIP are Libdem seats, suggests that my hunch that a lot of their voters voted Liberal for negative reasons (ie they are not the Tories) than any love of Libdems or their policies is right. With the Libdems in coalition with the Tories, those votes are now deeply in peril.

    As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.

    Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.

    Eastbourne,
    Somerton and Frome,
    Torbay,
    Eastleigh,
    North Cornwall,
    St Austell & Newquay,
    St Ives
    Chippenham.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Tim_B said:

    antifrank said:

    She is no doubt most inspired by the Magic Flute.

    Haha,

    You can see her perform here

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/10/14/forget-butt-twerking-sara-x-mills-can-make-her-boobs-dance-to-mozart-4905174/
    That's what's called keeping abreast of developments
    Mozart's Horn Concerto.
This discussion has been closed.