On the speculation that David Cameron is going to be replaced after UKIP win Rochester, there are many things that make it possible, her are a few:
1. The Tories will have to focus on UKIP, either making a deal or stealing their voters. 2. Cameron is hated more by UKIP voters that by Labour voters according to Ashcroft's polls. 3. Cameron bombed with UKIP voters after the Tory conference. 4. There are many with leadership aspirations in the Tory party, they have an incentive for UKIP to win Rochester to start the leadership race. 5. The new leader may also only be temporary, just to make a deal with UKIP or be credible with UKIP voters for the election and step down afterwards, hence Boris or anyone else who isn't ready can gain time. 6. Cameron has been leader for 9 years now, that is longer since anyone since Thatcher, and as long as Ted Heath, many will think that's their turn to be leader.
I point to reason 5 as to why I think David Davis might get it, he's popular with those who left the Tories for UKIP, he's not in the cabinet so he's not tainted by the coalition, and he's too old so he won't stick around for long.
It's like picking a new Pope isn't it!
It is, it reminds me of Il Santo Soglio, the italian comedy sketch about murdering and electing Popes :
I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election
Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!
It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010
If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either
Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus
What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded
especially coming from fitalarse - too dim to see her own exposure to this tactic?
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I think I'm even more convinced.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Not sure that Greens would squeeze in Bristol West, given antics of some of their councillors. But as @BenS points out Williams isn't an inspiring figure. Bear in mind that Ed Miliband's visit in April was a PR disaster, Labour hardly gained wards afterwards. Green support evaporates when you look at the wards further away from the Uni, but turnout tends to be lower as well. Williams might still stay on, but by skin of teeth, but Labour ought to be stronger challengers than the Greens, but will depend on their local organisation.
So Greens will jump from 3.8% [ like Heywood ] and win the Bristol West seat ? Unless Tories vote tactically yellow, it is probably a Labour gain !
I doubt that The Greens are strong enough to challenge Williams, some of The Green councillors are not nursing their wards very well, and blocking redevelopment of Bristol Rovers ground might not have been a smart move - setting up a Company to lodge a judicial review. It could still generate enough ill feeling to shift votes away from the Greens.
Labour ought to have done better in several of the wards in Bristol West, but Greens made the running in May against the LD incumbents. Labour's organisation may be better in other parts of the seat, but I can say that they were particularly poor in the last two ward council elections compared to the Greens- semi literate election leaflets. If Williams does lose, it may be to Labour rather than The Greens.
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I certainly will, Mr Senior, but without wishes to appear disrespectful, have you yourself not occasionally honed the occasional cutting object?
Re TV debates - the official statement does not make a proposal re what order the debates would take place in.
In my view, Cameron would accept the proposal as long as the 4 man debate was the first one. He just might accept the 4 man debate being the second debate but under no circumstances would he agree to the 4 man debate being last.
Ideally, he would want the order to be 4, 3, 2. However I'm sure he would settle for 4, 2, 3.
Clegg would obviously prefer 4, 2, 3.
The big problem with 4,3,2 or even 4,2,3 is that if Farage or Clegg does well and then is smeared slagged off by the others in the following debates with no right of reply it will look awful. Frankly I cannot see that working.
Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.
HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.
Shouldn't it be up to the shareholders?
That is the traditional view, Mr. Watcher. However, the wealth inequalities are now reaching such proportions as to become a political issue that is mentioned even in the Telegraph. The lack of correlation between top executive pay and performance of companies only aggravates the political impacts.
So, yes it should be up to the shareholders but as the shareholders and the remuneration committees seem to be unwilling to address an issue that is now having a political and social impact politicians are going to get involved.
For most large companies, even very high executive pay is a fraction of a fraction of a percentage of costs. Shareholders usually have more important things on their minds that voting down pay packages out of envy.
Envy, who said anything about envy. If there is no correlation between performance and remuneration the shareholders are being had over, the are being misled, they are having their money taken from them by false pretences. But I suppose in most cases it isn't really the shareholders money, it is their clients money and as long as the fund managers match the index they will get their bonus and won't give a shit that their clients are being ripped off.
I strongly suspect that if the UK introduced a law that said no remuneration package in a company can exceed 20 times the median wage for that company then a lot people would run for the exits but company performance would not be hit at all. It might particularly in real industries actually increase as the bean counters depart and the people who know about making things or doing things take over.
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I think I'm even more convinced.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 2h2 hours ago For the avoidance of doubt, given misleading follow ups (pace Mirror), I asked Mr Farage what price would be to co-op with Tories OR Labour
I made a genuine mistake misspelling that surname! I have often complained when people have resorted to using puerile nicknames for politicians on this site. That Isam immediately assumed that is what I was doing says more about him than it does about me as a poster on this site.
I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election
Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!
It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010
If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either
Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus
What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded
Oh never underestimate what passes for wit in some quarters.
There are still people who find Tony Bliar hilarious.
Not giving Nurses the 1% pay increase is a mistake and it will affect the Tories, because you don't pick a fight with a profession that is still popular with the public. The profession went through some difficulty in recent years e.g mid Staffs, but people still have a positive view.
There is also a negative view of Tory NHS reforms following on from conference season and I think this will continue until the election. Some Tories are now trying to blame Lansley and some Lib Dems are saying it was a mistake to back the reforms. If you look around the regional newspapers there are quite a lot of stories about NHS services being transfered to private sector companies. The Tories deny NHS reforms were about privatisation, but the evidence around the country may be confusing to people. If they visit a GP now, they may be referred to a private provider that is some distance away from home and not to a local NHS hospital.
Surbiton No, it is blatantly unreasonable. The Greens had an MP before UKIP, they have control of a council unlike UKIP and MEPs and they beat the LDs in the Euros. If Farage is included so should Bennett be. Could be separate Scottish or Welsh debates but as I pointed out New Zealand had 1 debate with 8 party leaders, that way we could include UKIP and the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Respect so everyone happy. Northern Ireland has its own parties and neither the Tories, Labour or LDs are competitive there so could hold its own debate
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I think I'm even more convinced.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Betfair, where are you on Bristol West?
Ladbrokes have LD 4/7 Lab 13/8 Greens 10/1
Ladbrokes just closed my account. Something to do with me being in Switzerland or them going bust.
Man of Kent Agree Entirely Galloway's legal challenge almost certain to be joined by SNP and Plaid and the Greens
I think on reasonableness the TV companies will win any judicial review. They will look at recent elections and current HoC composition.
What UKIP has are Euro election results, Local election results and, now, MP(s). Greens only match the last bit.
SNP will probably replace UKIP in Scotland and PC in Wales.
Why should it be UKIP who are replaced in Scotland. They polled better than the Libdems in the Euros. UKIP are now polling higher than PC in Wales and have been since May. Its the Libdems who are trailing in Wales.
Man of Kent Agree Entirely Galloway's legal challenge almost certain to be joined by SNP and Plaid and the Greens
I think on reasonableness the TV companies will win any judicial review. They will look at recent elections and current HoC composition.
What UKIP has are Euro election results, Local election results and, now, MP(s). Greens only match the last bit.
SNP will probably replace UKIP in Scotland and PC in Wales.
Why should it be UKIP who are replaced in Scotland. They polled better than the Libdems in the Euros. UKIP are now polling higher than PC in Wales and have been since May. Its the Libdems who are trailing in Wales.
We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.
Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something
You mustn't leave out Gideon.
EUSSR is my fave. It's just so....crap.
EDIT: Liebore is actually so crap it passed beyond "humourous" crap into "crap" crap. EDIT 2: "Crap" is one of those words that sounds more ludicrous the more you say it. Crap, crap, crap, crap, crap.
I encountered a new one on CIF this very day: Nigel Far-right-age (I kid you not)
Makes Dave Chameleon look pithy and uncontrived.
The Squealing Beagles, Pike Smithson and PrawnT are a handful of new animal-related ones for light relief.
Natalie Bennett @natalieben 10m10 minutes ago RT @carolinelucas: RT @patrickwintour: If Greens allowed to join debate it would prevent men only platform < & ensure some genuine debate!
I made a genuine mistake misspelling that surname! I have often complained when people have resorted to using puerile nicknames for politicians on this site. That Isam immediately assumed that is what I was doing says more about him than it does about me as a poster on this site.
I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election
Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!
It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010
If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either
Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus
What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded
Oh never underestimate what passes for wit in some quarters.
There are still people who find Tony Bliar hilarious.
Surbiton No, it is blatantly unreasonable. The Greens had an MP before UKIP, they have control of a council unlike UKIP and MEPs and they beat the LDs in the Euros. If Farage is included so should Bennett be. Could be separate Scottish or Welsh debates but as I pointed out New Zealand had 1 debate with 8 party leaders, that way we could include UKIP and the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Respect so everyone happy. Northern Ireland has its own parties and neither the Tories, Labour or LDs are competitive there so could hold its own debate
SNP and PC have no relevance outside of Scotland and Wales respectively and should be confined to the debates relevant to those places.
However, a 'lower tier' debate to include UKIP, LDs, Greens, Respect, English Democrats, BNP, SWP etc would be useful in giving the lesser known parties wider publicity. A second debate could be limited to the top 5 and a final showdown to the Cons and LAB.
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I think I'm even more convinced.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Betfair, where are you on Bristol West?
Ladbrokes have LD 4/7 Lab 13/8 Greens 10/1
The fact that Bristol West the Lib Dems 11th strongest seat in terms of the swing required, is even considered under threat shows the scale of what is facing the Lib Dems. It has an 11,000 majority.
I made a genuine mistake misspelling that surname! I have often complained when people have resorted to using puerile nicknames for politicians on this site. That Isam immediately assumed that is what I was doing says more about him than it does about me as a poster on this site.
I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election
Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!
It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010
If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either
Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus
What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded
Oh never underestimate what passes for wit in some quarters.
There are still people who find Tony Bliar hilarious.
Oh god not the "says more about them than it does about me" nonsense
Although what it says about me that I noticed you repeatedly mis spelling someone you constantly slag offs name in a perile way I don't know.. That I am perceptive? That I can spell?
You have spelt it wrong on many occasions before and I have mentioned it before.. you kept mis spelling it which led me to think you thought you were being witty
It may be far too early to tell, but the past few polls (less the remarkable Survation one, which stands out in other ways) seem to indicate that the Lib Dems might be - I hesitate to say 'recovering', but at least clawing back from the dreadful run of near-record lows recently (the 6s and 7s).
That said, it's still a bit telling that 8,9 and 11 look almost like 'recovery'. Remnants of conference boost? Dead cat bounce? Genuine grim clawback?
" If they visit a GP now, they may be referred to a private provider that is some distance away from home and not to a local NHS hospital."
Shock Horror! To have to go to see a health provider in a premises that is not a local NHS Hospital. My God it is the end of civilisation as we know it.
Will that provider be safe and competent ? Will I have to wait ages (benchmark - NHS Wales waiting times are far far too long)? Will it be free at the point of use? As long as the answers to those questions are Yes , No, Yes, who will give a big rats arse?
When I needed at CAT scan in the early morning a couple of weeks ago did I care that it was being provided by a private company or did I care that it was being provided within an hour of the consultant deciding it was necessary?
Mr Hucks, you might want to think about the idea that most NHS patients aren't there for the politics.
It may be far too early to tell, but the past few polls (less the remarkable Survation one, which stands out in other ways) seem to indicate that the Lib Dems might be - I hesitate to say 'recovering', but at least clawing back from the dreadful run of near-record lows recently (the 6s and 7s).
That said, it's still a bit telling that 8,9 and 11 look almost like 'recovery'. Remnants of conference boost? Dead cat bounce? Genuine grim clawback?
LibDems haven't decreased for two ELBOWs in a row. Now 8.1%.
As I understand it, the award was put forward by a Pay Review Body. What is the point of such a body if you are not going to accept its findings? If you don't like them, or consider the Body biased or incompetent, you surely disband them or announce that you will disregard them in future. You don't accept their answers only if they suit you.
It didn't help the Government's case that the award appeared triflingly small and was made close on the heels of Conservative tax-cutting proposals. And of course the NHS remains something close to a religion, for all the recent bad press.
Tell me how PR^2 maintains a constituency-candidate link, as you've claimed recently. Surely a big chunk of MPs would have to be top-ups?
Firstly you would group constituencies into twos and threes. (There could be a handful of single-members also, for the islands, etc) Can't be a deal-breaker since its the system we had for 600 years until 1885, and in some places until 1950. The potential for creating more sensible constituencies is a bonus.
Then everyone votes for a candidate (most likely they will have a choice) of their chosen party in their constituency, in the knowledge it will directly help both that candidate locally and the party nationally in the overall seat totals. Tactical voting would become a thing of the past.
The PR^2 formula is performed on the national vote totals to establish the overall composition of the HofC by party. Electoral bias is removed.
Now back to the constituencies... Those parties that had exceeded the Droop quota in the constituency would be guaranteed a seat in the constituency. [This rule also offers scope for Independents/small parties to break through here and there, even if they could never win seats under the national formula] Some seats might be entirely filled by this method, some partially filled, some unfilled.
Now take away the seats filled as above from the national entitlement.
Assign the remaining seats back to the constituencies on the basis of party relative performance across the constituencies. This is the tricky bit, and there are several ways to do it.
At this point, every constituency would know which parties would be represented in the constituency.
If a 1,2,3 ballot was used, voters for eliminated parties would have their preferences scrutinised at this point to discriminate between candidates of the winning parties in their constituency. The 1,2,3 could also be utilized to indicate the preferred coalition at the national level, if one is required.
I made a genuine mistake misspelling that surname! I have often complained when people have resorted to using puerile nicknames for politicians on this site. That Isam immediately assumed that is what I was doing says more about him than it does about me as a poster on this site.
I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election
Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!
It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010
If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either
Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus
What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded
Oh never underestimate what passes for wit in some quarters.
There are still people who find Tony Bliar hilarious.
Oh god not the "says more about them than it does about me" nonsense
Although what it says about me that I noticed you repeatedly mis spelling someone you constantly slag offs name in a perile way I don't know.. That I am perceptive? That I can spell?
You have spelt it wrong on many occasions before and I have mentioned it before.. you kept mis spelling it which led me to think you thought you were being witty
Surbiton No, it is blatantly unreasonable. The Greens had an MP before UKIP, they have control of a council unlike UKIP and MEPs and they beat the LDs in the Euros. If Farage is included so should Bennett be. Could be separate Scottish or Welsh debates but as I pointed out New Zealand had 1 debate with 8 party leaders, that way we could include UKIP and the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Respect so everyone happy. Northern Ireland has its own parties and neither the Tories, Labour or LDs are competitive there so could hold its own debate
This is a getting a bit desperate. There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue. That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
There's the left with Labour, the centre with the Tories that is also representing the government, and the right with UKIP. Those 3 cover about 80% of the electorate. If there is a question mark that should be the LD's since the liberals and the government are already represented by the Tories.
Mr. Llama, last time I was referred somewhere (thankfully infrequent, as my immune system is little short of bulletproof) it was a private hospital. This was during Labour's last term in office. I was just glad to get the matter resolved, and the service was very good.
I feel that in the BBC No Farage debate, all three leaders are going to take the opportunity to agree with each other about how great the EU is and how disastrous UKIP will be, and it's just going to play awfully for them, and brilliantly for UKIP.
There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue. That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
I completely disagree. And the literally 4 or 5 pbc-ers who religiously stayed up for the early GOP debates last time around probably do too!
Financier The SNP and PC have more support across UK than the English Democrats and SWP, BNP and Respect in the polls but your suggestion would be an improvement. Personally I would stick to only parties which have an MP participating in 1 larger debate
Mr. 1983, that does assume the debates go ahead as the broadcasters planned.
Yes of course. As a die-hard kipper, I'm actually not too exercised by Nigel being excluded from some of the debates. There's no way UKIP are not going to be heard in this election.
There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue. That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
I completely disagree. And the literally 4 or 5 pbc-ers who religiously stayed up for the early GOP debates last time around probably do too!
They had 15 "debates", where most candidates were ignored, only 3-4 got any proper time with the rest getting a few minutes or less in 2 hours time. It validates my thinking that the max is 3-4, even if you have a dozen participating, people will be only listening those 3-4.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Whatever UKIP is polling, they are the only party who don't run anything.
Labour run Wales, the SNP run Scotland, the Tories/Lib Dems run the UK.
The Greens run Brighton Council, Plaid Cymru run Gwynedd Council.
UKIP run nothing.
Easy to get protest votes when you haven't any responsibility.
Did you say that to get it off your chest or as an actual reason to deny them entry to the debates? Because it wins spurious reason for refusing to let them in the debate of the day and there was tough competition!
That's not to say this 'green party' nonsense isn't a risible attempt to 'fairly' exclude UKIP. They've been around since day dot for goodness sake -if they were going to do anything except hoover up a few Lib dems leaving the sinking ship, they would have done it by now. They have one MP (soon to be none), and wouldn't have any MEPs if it weren't for the unfair inclusion of 'An Independence from Europe' in the euros.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
I had the idea of Farage leading a people's protest outside the studio building with giant speakers blaring his voice inside the studio.
Surbiton No, it is blatantly unreasonable. The Greens had an MP before UKIP, they have control of a council unlike UKIP and MEPs and they beat the LDs in the Euros. If Farage is included so should Bennett be. Could be separate Scottish or Welsh debates but as I pointed out New Zealand had 1 debate with 8 party leaders, that way we could include UKIP and the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Respect so everyone happy. Northern Ireland has its own parties and neither the Tories, Labour or LDs are competitive there so could hold its own debate
SNP and PC have no relevance outside of Scotland and Wales respectively and should be confined to the debates relevant to those places.
However, a 'lower tier' debate to include UKIP, LDs, Greens, Respect, English Democrats, BNP, SWP etc would be useful in giving the lesser known parties wider publicity. A second debate could be limited to the top 5 and a final showdown to the Cons and LAB.
You are talking about parties that do not put up enough candidates to qualify for a PPB (you need 109 candidates under Ofcom rules). Parties such as the SWP and English democrats are not relevant to the vast majority of the country because they do not stand there. In fact Respect only put up 11 candidates and the SWP put up none at all under that name. What purpose would it be to present them to a national audience who couldn't vote for them. Such a debate would be a complete waste of time.
There should be two sets of debates. One set to address the devolved regions and the other to include only those parties who are able and willing to put up say 500 candidates. There should be no other differentiation.
There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue. That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
I completely disagree. And the literally 4 or 5 pbc-ers who religiously stayed up for the early GOP debates last time around probably do too!
Why not solve the debate problem by having a qualification tournament for the minor parties? Green vs Respect in one semi, English Dems vs Liberals in the other? Winner takes all final gets to join in a two-hour four-way dust up with the big boys.
Worst performer gets ejected by trapdoor every half an hour with the last man standing given 30 minutes at the end to talk to the electorate uninterrupted.
Surely that's a winning format that even Dave can't refuse?
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I've been called Stooge on occasions - given the relative positions of the D and the O on most keyboards, I've assumed a weak attempt at an insult.
I might have been wrong - just like some numpty who describes a seat as "under considerable threat" because someone suggests the Greens may be worth a punt.
There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue. That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
I completely disagree. And the literally 4 or 5 pbc-ers who religiously stayed up for the early GOP debates last time around probably do too!
Why not solve the debate problem by having a qualification tournament for the minor parties? Green vs Respect in one semi, English Dems vs Liberals in the other? Winner takes all final gets to join in a two-hour four-way dust up with the big boys.
Worst performer gets ejected by trapdoor every half an hour with the last man standing given 30 minutes at the end to talk to the electorate uninterrupted.
Surely that's a winning format that even Dave can't refuse?
Does that mean that David Milliband is like the UK in eurovision -gets put through to the final automatically but is likely to hover around 'nul point'.
Looking at that map, the following Libdem Parliamentary Constituencies voted UKIP in the 2014 elections:
Carshalton & Wallington Cheadle Colchester Eastbourne Eastleigh Hazel Grove Lewes Mid Dorset & North Poole North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Portsmouth South Redcar Solihull St Austell & Newquay St Ives Somerton & Frome (part) Sutton & Cheam Taunton Deane Thornbury & Yate Torbay Yeovil
ie of 44 English constituencies, half, 22 placed UKIP first place in 2014. That is an enormous psephological swing between ideologies.
Does this mean that voter loyalty to Libdems here is skindeep and they were voted in because they were the only feasible alternative to the Tories, not because of any great support for Libdem polices.
If even a quarter of the Libdems 2010 votes go to UKIP in 2015 then I suspect the Libs will lose those seats and the Tories gain 22 extra seats. Ouch
I am happy with the debates being open to UKIP or Galloway or anyone (I never said anything about the debates in my post).
IMO, the more people participating in the debates, the more likely it is that they will have no net effect. But, that is neither here nor there.
I am making a more general point, If their polling is translated into seats, at some point UKIP will be in charge of something. It will be interesting to see how they fare.
Or to put it another way, the SNP are now a very serious party.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
Natalie Bennett @natalieben 10m10 minutes ago RT @carolinelucas: RT @patrickwintour: If Greens allowed to join debate it would prevent men only platform < & ensure some genuine debate!
There's not much that I agree with Natalie Bennett on, but, leaving aside the gender stuff, she does have a point on the breadth of debate. For example, none of the other four parties are going to put forward an anti-fracking case, but there is strong opposition to fracking. If we are going to have debates which include leaders who have zero hope of becoming PM (or even deputy PM), then presumably the reason is that we want different views to be heard. The Greens have a distinctive set of views. Why should the establishment - Milband, Farage, and so on - exclude those views?
In other words, I can see the point of a Miliband vs Cameron prospective PMs' debate. I can also see the point of a quite different debate for leaders of parties, allowing a variety of views to be heard. The latter should include the Greens, IMO.
Three parties all have a quota, so all seats are filled, 1 for each party. If these parties ran more than one candidate, the second preferences of voters for eliminated parties would come into play to decide which would be elected. 1 seat would be deducted from the national total for the three parties.
Bolton PR^2 constituency (3 seats) 2010, quotas
Con 1.35 Lab 1.75 LD 0.62
Two parties have a quota, with one seat indeterminate at this point. After comparing the relative performance of the parties across constituencies, Labour would probably get a second seat. Proceed with 1,2,3 to discriminate between candidates, as necessary.
Note that the Tories would win seats in areas they didn't under FPTP.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
In fact, democracy is working as it ought. The Conservative and Labour parties are failing to represent the voters, who are therefore seeking alternatives.
ICM proves what we've always known. UKIP damages the Tories far more than Labour and with the right wing vote split Labour is cruising the power on less than 35% of the vote.
Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.
Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...
Thanks BenS.
Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.
Can you keep us updated?
No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1 LD lead in terms of votes also Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .
I think I'm even more convinced.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Betfair, where are you on Bristol West?
Ladbrokes have LD 4/7 Lab 13/8 Greens 10/1
The fact that Bristol West the Lib Dems 11th strongest seat in terms of the swing required, is even considered under threat shows the scale of what is facing the Lib Dems. It has an 11,000 majority.
I think Bristol West will have one of the largest swings against the LibDems in the country - I would be surprised if they kept much more than a third of their vote.
Cambridge, on the other hand, is technically much more vulnerable, but my sources on the ground seem to think that Hubbert will hang on.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
If he live streams a panel show, maybe similar to a QT format, maybe a chat show format at the same time as the debates, or maybe another channel takes it, how many people would put their laptops on at the same time as the debates. Assuming people are interested in politics in the first place. I don't watch Gogglebox but I hear it's quite popular.
If it happens I'll be happy to bet that Farage's show would get a million viewers.
Also, if Farage confirms he will put on a show. The others will all look like idiots, especially if another TV channel takes UKIP to do a simulcast.
Man of Kent Agree Entirely Galloway's legal challenge almost certain to be joined by SNP and Plaid and the Greens
I think on reasonableness the TV companies will win any judicial review. They will look at recent elections and current HoC composition.
What UKIP has are Euro election results, Local election results and, now, MP(s). Greens only match the last bit.
SNP will probably replace UKIP in Scotland and PC in Wales.
Why should it be UKIP who are replaced in Scotland. They polled better than the Libdems in the Euros. UKIP are now polling higher than PC in Wales and have been since May. Its the Libdems who are trailing in Wales.
The "polls" will never come into it. Polls cannot be given the same importance as results and composition.
You are not seriously suggesting that UKIP are more important than the SNP in Scotland, are you ?
The polls do come into it not only because they give you a contemporary view of things but also because under Ofcom rules already recognise current popularity as a consideration when deciding the allocation of Party Political Broadcasts. I also assume it is a consideration when deciding the Major Parties list as well.
I never even contemplated UKIP replacing the SNP and said nothing of the sort. My point was that UKIP have previously polled better than the Libdems. I can only assume it is the idiosyncracies of your mind that somehow equated what I said that to the conclusion you came to
Looking at that map, the following Libdem Parliamentary Constituencies voted UKIP in the 2014 elections:
Carshalton & Wallington Cheadle Colchester Eastbourne Eastleigh Hazel Grove Lewes Mid Dorset & North Poole North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Portsmouth South Redcar Solihull St Austell & Newquay St Ives Somerton & Frome (part) Sutton & Cheam Taunton Deane Thornbury & Yate Torbay Yeovil
ie of 44 English constituencies, half, 22 placed UKIP first place in 2014. That is an enormous psephological swing between ideologies.
Does this mean that voter loyalty to Libdems here is skindeep and they were voted in because they were the only feasible alternative to the Tories, not because of any great support for Libdem polices.
If even a quarter of the Libdems 2010 votes go to UKIP in 2015 then I suspect the Libs will lose those seats and the Tories gain 22 extra seats. Ouch
Strangely enough in the local elections on the same day, the "skin deep loyalty" of the Liberal Democrat vote in Carshalton & Wallington and Sutton & Cheam swept the LDs back to control of Sutton Council with an increased majority.
Perhaps you should be looking at the Conservative areas which voted UKIP and ask why your party is languishing at 30% in the polls.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
If it's the BBC that excludes him perhaps ITV could broadcast it at the same time. It will be interesting to see the ratings.
Looking at that map, the following Libdem Parliamentary Constituencies voted UKIP in the 2014 elections:
Carshalton & Wallington Cheadle Colchester Eastbourne Eastleigh Hazel Grove Lewes Mid Dorset & North Poole North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Portsmouth South Redcar Solihull St Austell & Newquay St Ives Somerton & Frome (part) Sutton & Cheam Taunton Deane Thornbury & Yate Torbay Yeovil
ie of 44 English constituencies, half, 22 placed UKIP first place in 2014. That is an enormous psephological swing between ideologies.
Does this mean that voter loyalty to Libdems here is skindeep and they were voted in because they were the only feasible alternative to the Tories, not because of any great support for Libdem polices.
If even a quarter of the Libdems 2010 votes go to UKIP in 2015 then I suspect the Libs will lose those seats and the Tories gain 22 extra seats. Ouch
Strangely enough in the local elections on the same day, the "skin deep loyalty" of the Liberal Democrat vote in Carshalton & Wallington and Sutton & Cheam swept the LDs back to control of Sutton Council with an increased majority.
Perhaps you should be looking at the Conservative areas which voted UKIP and ask why your party is languishing at 30% in the polls.
I will be voting UKIP in 2015, not for Camerons lot thank you very much.
Oh by the way, @Fitalass said she didn't deliberately mis spell "Carswell" and that my assumption that she had "says more about him than it does about me as a poster on this site"
But I had pointed it out to her last month, and didn't infer any pejorative cause on her part
isam • Posts: 8,540 September 24 • edited September 24 You're angrier than his constituents, they're just about to elect him by a landslide.
You're spelling Carswell incorrectly, I know you wouldn't be childish enough to do it deliberately
fitalass said: Your accusing me of trolling because I pointed out the fact that Carsewell and UKIP's political stunt had left his constituents without a voice in Westminster while Parliament has been recalled? Utterly pathetic! I few years ago, I cared enough to write and complain to my MP because he sat on his behookie while MPs rejected proposals to hold a UK-wide referendum on whether to ratify the EU's Lisbon Treaty! I would have been absolutely livid if he had pulled a stunt like Carsewell did just months before GE and missed the voted altogether, never mind while we were holding an Independence Referendum in another part of the UK while we were facing a serious terrorist threat from abroad.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
If it's the BBC that excludes him perhaps ITV could broadcast it at the same time. It will be interesting to see the ratings.
It's BOUND to be Al-Beeb that excludes him, on the orders of Toenails.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
Dance like this? (and this is supposed to be anti-UKIP satire).
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
Yup.
Don't forget, he's the silly idiot who spent an election day pratting about in an aircraft, which then crashed, rather than knocking on doors.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
If he live streams a panel show, maybe similar to a QT format, maybe a chat show format at the same time as the debates, or maybe another channel takes it, how many people would put their laptops on at the same time as the debates. Assuming people are interested in politics in the first place. I don't watch Gogglebox but I hear it's quite popular.
If it happens I'll be happy to bet that Farage's show would get a million viewers.
Also, if Farage confirms he will put on a show. The others will all look like idiots, especially if another TV channel takes UKIP to do a simulcast.
An ideal scenario would be to have Nige 'translating' the debate in the bottom right hand corner, a la those sign language broadcasts for the hard of hearing. Farage could talk and sign at the same time. I can only imagine the hand signals when Dave is on camera
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
Yup.
Don't forget, he's the silly idiot who spent an election day pratting about in an aircraft, which then crashed, rather than knocking on doors.
Yup he's the idiot who has got the Tory Party running round like panicked headless chickens
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
Yup.
Don't forget, he's the silly idiot who spent an election day pratting about in an aircraft, which then crashed, rather than knocking on doors.
Yup he's the idiot who has got the Tory Party running round like panicked headless chickens
And?
He's still a prize plonker, regardless of what the Tories and everyone else do!
Ed Challes @SkyEdChalles 4m4 minutes ago Politics expert @philipjcowley tells C4 News Ed Miliband will benefit from #leadersdebates as long as he "doesn't soil himself on camera".
mistype...misheard it...I can't recall hearing it - but did Cowley say it?
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Gogglebox style! That would be brilliant!
I think Farage has said he will do this if excluded!
I'm impressed that Farage/UKIP have come up with that response so quickly. I have no doubt someone from one of the TV stations will be on to him like a shot.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said he will produce a "fun" alternative broadcast if he is not allowed to take part in the leaders' TV debate at the next election.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
Dance like this? (and this is supposed to be anti-UKIP satire).
At the start it reads" Election Broadcast" But the voiceover says "Political Broadcast"
Tsk
I would have liked it in 1985 if it was on Friday Night Live with Ben Elton etc moaning about "Fatcha!"and I was 10, so cant hammer the kidz for reheating old jokes
Comments
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZGM0Auwlo
You lay, I'll back.
For one thing students won't forgive Clegg and they are not entrenched Labour voters.
Betfair, where are you on Bristol West?
Labour ought to have done better in several of the wards in Bristol West, but Greens made the running in May against the LD incumbents. Labour's organisation may be better in other parts of the seat, but I can say that they were particularly poor in the last two ward council elections compared to the Greens- semi literate election leaflets. If Williams does lose, it may be to Labour rather than The Greens.
But is it known whether Natalie Bennett is standing in the GE and, if so, in which constituency?
What UKIP has are Euro election results, Local election results and, now, MP(s). Greens only match the last bit.
SNP will probably replace UKIP in Scotland and PC in Wales.
I strongly suspect that if the UK introduced a law that said no remuneration package in a company can exceed 20 times the median wage for that company then a lot people would run for the exits but company performance would not be hit at all. It might particularly in real industries actually increase as the bean counters depart and the people who know about making things or doing things take over.
For the avoidance of doubt, given misleading follow ups (pace Mirror), I asked Mr Farage what price would be to co-op with Tories OR Labour
There is also a negative view of Tory NHS reforms following on from conference season and I think this will continue until the election. Some Tories are now trying to blame Lansley and some Lib Dems are saying it was a mistake to back the reforms. If you look around the regional newspapers there are quite a lot of stories about NHS services being transfered to private sector companies. The Tories deny NHS reforms were about privatisation, but the evidence around the country may be confusing to people. If they visit a GP now, they may be referred to a private provider that is some distance away from home and not to a local NHS hospital.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/Wales10.pdf
You are not seriously suggesting that UKIP are more important than the SNP in Scotland, are you ?
Makes Dave Chameleon look pithy and uncontrived.
The Squealing Beagles, Pike Smithson and PrawnT are a handful of new animal-related ones for light relief.
Natalie Bennett @natalieben 10m10 minutes ago
RT @carolinelucas: RT @patrickwintour: If Greens allowed to join debate it would prevent men only platform < & ensure some genuine debate!
Say ten Hail Smithsons and go forth in peace.
However, a 'lower tier' debate to include UKIP, LDs, Greens, Respect, English Democrats, BNP, SWP etc would be useful in giving the lesser known parties wider publicity. A second debate could be limited to the top 5 and a final showdown to the Cons and LAB.
Although what it says about me that I noticed you repeatedly mis spelling someone you constantly slag offs name in a perile way I don't know.. That I am perceptive? That I can spell?
You have spelt it wrong on many occasions before and I have mentioned it before.. you kept mis spelling it which led me to think you thought you were being witty
That said, it's still a bit telling that 8,9 and 11 look almost like 'recovery'. Remnants of conference boost? Dead cat bounce? Genuine grim clawback?
Shock Horror! To have to go to see a health provider in a premises that is not a local NHS Hospital. My God it is the end of civilisation as we know it.
Will that provider be safe and competent ? Will I have to wait ages (benchmark - NHS Wales waiting times are far far too long)? Will it be free at the point of use? As long as the answers to those questions are Yes , No, Yes, who will give a big rats arse?
When I needed at CAT scan in the early morning a couple of weeks ago did I care that it was being provided by a private company or did I care that it was being provided within an hour of the consultant deciding it was necessary?
Mr Hucks, you might want to think about the idea that most NHS patients aren't there for the politics.
I agree but for a different reason.
As I understand it, the award was put forward by a Pay Review Body. What is the point of such a body if you are not going to accept its findings? If you don't like them, or consider the Body biased or incompetent, you surely disband them or announce that you will disregard them in future. You don't accept their answers only if they suit you.
It didn't help the Government's case that the award appeared triflingly small and was made close on the heels of Conservative tax-cutting proposals. And of course the NHS remains something close to a religion, for all the recent bad press.
Then everyone votes for a candidate (most likely they will have a choice) of their chosen party in their constituency, in the knowledge it will directly help both that candidate locally and the party nationally in the overall seat totals. Tactical voting would become a thing of the past.
The PR^2 formula is performed on the national vote totals to establish the overall composition of the HofC by party. Electoral bias is removed.
Now back to the constituencies... Those parties that had exceeded the Droop quota in the constituency would be guaranteed a seat in the constituency. [This rule also offers scope for Independents/small parties to break through here and there, even if they could never win seats under the national formula] Some seats might be entirely filled by this method, some partially filled, some unfilled.
Now take away the seats filled as above from the national entitlement.
Assign the remaining seats back to the constituencies on the basis of party relative performance across the constituencies. This is the tricky bit, and there are several ways to do it.
At this point, every constituency would know which parties would be represented in the constituency.
If a 1,2,3 ballot was used, voters for eliminated parties would have their preferences scrutinised at this point to discriminate between candidates of the winning parties in their constituency. The 1,2,3 could also be utilized to indicate the preferred coalition at the national level, if one is required.
What a mistake-a to make-a
"Playing the I'm a woman let me in card."
I wonder how many years behind bars Vinnie would have got if Gazza had been a woman?
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1500510/thumbs/o-PAUL-GASCOIGNE-VINNIE-JONES-570.jpg?6
There is a maximum of number of people that can be included in a debate before it becomes a useless questions and answers session with little or no dialogue.
That number is 3 or maybe 4 but not higher.
There's the left with Labour, the centre with the Tories that is also representing the government, and the right with UKIP. Those 3 cover about 80% of the electorate.
If there is a question mark that should be the LD's since the liberals and the government are already represented by the Tories.
Labour run Wales, the SNP run Scotland, the Tories/Lib Dems run the UK.
The Greens run Brighton Council, Plaid Cymru run Gwynedd Council.
UKIP run nothing.
Easy to get protest votes when you haven't any responsibility.
It validates my thinking that the max is 3-4, even if you have a dozen participating, people will be only listening those 3-4.
Hmm. This might be terribly modern, but I wonder if a live Youtube/Twitch reaction video by Farage to the debates (he isn't in, of course) might be a clever idea for him.
Lab
Con (Newark)
LD (Eastleigh)
UKIP (Clacton)
Respect (Bradford W)
There should be two sets of debates. One set to address the devolved regions and the other to include only those parties who are able and willing to put up say 500 candidates. There should be no other differentiation.
Worst performer gets ejected by trapdoor every half an hour with the last man standing given 30 minutes at the end to talk to the electorate uninterrupted.
Surely that's a winning format that even Dave can't refuse?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25041740
Anyhow, I think we can all agree that the only politician in a win-win situation re debates is RedWed MiliBland Minor.
I might have been wrong - just like some numpty who describes a seat as "under considerable threat" because someone suggests the Greens may be worth a punt.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/European_Parliament_election_results,_2014_(England_by_council_areas).svg
Looking at that map, the following Libdem Parliamentary Constituencies voted UKIP in the 2014 elections:
Carshalton & Wallington
Cheadle
Colchester
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Mid Dorset & North Poole
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Portsmouth South
Redcar
Solihull
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Somerton & Frome (part)
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Thornbury & Yate
Torbay
Yeovil
ie of 44 English constituencies, half, 22 placed UKIP first place in 2014. That is an enormous psephological swing between ideologies.
Does this mean that voter loyalty to Libdems here is skindeep and they were voted in because they were the only feasible alternative to the Tories, not because of any great support for Libdem polices.
If even a quarter of the Libdems 2010 votes go to UKIP in 2015 then I suspect the Libs will lose those seats and the Tories gain 22 extra seats. Ouch
I am happy with the debates being open to UKIP or Galloway or anyone (I never said anything about the debates in my post).
IMO, the more people participating in the debates, the more likely it is that they will have no net effect. But, that is neither here nor there.
I am making a more general point, If their polling is translated into seats, at some point UKIP will be in charge of something. It will be interesting to see how they fare.
Or to put it another way, the SNP are now a very serious party.
Because they have run Scotland well.
If the Greens/SNP/Respect did the same would anyone even notice?
In other words, I can see the point of a Miliband vs Cameron prospective PMs' debate. I can also see the point of a quite different debate for leaders of parties, allowing a variety of views to be heard. The latter should include the Greens, IMO.
Sefton PR^2 constituency (3 seats) 2010, quotas
Con 1.07
Lab 1.55
LD 1.13
Three parties all have a quota, so all seats are filled, 1 for each party. If these parties ran more than one candidate, the second preferences of voters for eliminated parties would come into play to decide which would be elected. 1 seat would be deducted from the national total for the three parties.
Bolton PR^2 constituency (3 seats) 2010, quotas
Con 1.35
Lab 1.75
LD 0.62
Two parties have a quota, with one seat indeterminate at this point. After comparing the relative performance of the parties across constituencies, Labour would probably get a second seat. Proceed with 1,2,3 to discriminate between candidates, as necessary.
Note that the Tories would win seats in areas they didn't under FPTP.
What's he gonna do? Magic tricks? Ventriloquism?
Buffoon.
In fact, democracy is working as it ought. The Conservative and Labour parties are failing to represent the voters, who are therefore seeking alternatives.
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Cambridge, on the other hand, is technically much more vulnerable, but my sources on the ground seem to think that Hubbert will hang on.
If it happens I'll be happy to bet that Farage's show would get a million viewers.
Also, if Farage confirms he will put on a show. The others will all look like idiots, especially if another TV channel takes UKIP to do a simulcast.
I never even contemplated UKIP replacing the SNP and said nothing of the sort. My point was that UKIP have previously polled better than the Libdems. I can only assume it is the idiosyncracies of your mind that somehow equated what I said that to the conclusion you came to
Perhaps you should be looking at the Conservative areas which voted UKIP and ask why your party is languishing at 30% in the polls.
It will be interesting to see the ratings.
Huppert is well-matched to the constituency. His Labour opponent is not.
So, I too think Huppert will survive (though I think NPXMP said it was regarded as a cert in Labour circles that they would take Cambridge).
But I had pointed it out to her last month, and didn't infer any pejorative cause on her part
So what does that say about me.. or her?
That I forecast landslides accurately?
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isam • Posts: 8,540
September 24 • edited September 24
You're angrier than his constituents, they're just about to elect him by a landslide.
You're spelling Carswell incorrectly, I know you wouldn't be childish enough to do it deliberately
fitalass said:
Your accusing me of trolling because I pointed out the fact that Carsewell and UKIP's political stunt had left his constituents without a voice in Westminster while Parliament has been recalled? Utterly pathetic! I few years ago, I cared enough to write and complain to my MP because he sat on his behookie while MPs rejected proposals to hold a UK-wide referendum on whether to ratify the EU's Lisbon Treaty! I would have been absolutely livid if he had pulled a stunt like Carsewell did just months before GE and missed the voted altogether, never mind while we were holding an Independence Referendum in another part of the UK while we were facing a serious terrorist threat from abroad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3tQbeuFtPQ
Don't forget, he's the silly idiot who spent an election day pratting about in an aircraft, which then crashed, rather than knocking on doors.
Not sure whether the debates will go ahead, too many spineless and hopeless candidates. Labour must be praying they don't go ahead.
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He's still a prize plonker, regardless of what the Tories and everyone else do!
Politics expert @philipjcowley tells C4 News Ed Miliband will benefit from #leadersdebates as long as he "doesn't soil himself on camera".
mistype...misheard it...I can't recall hearing it - but did Cowley say it?
Tsk
I would have liked it in 1985 if it was on Friday Night Live with Ben Elton etc moaning about "Fatcha!"and I was 10, so cant hammer the kidz for reheating old jokes