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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP move up in tonight’s phone polls while the Tories slip back

The day has seen three new GE15 polls all of them completed after UKIP success in the by-elections on Thursday. Populus online which came out this morning showed no change for the party but the two phone polls, ICM and Ashcroft, reported increases.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting

MarkSenior

UKIP move up Conservatives fall back says headline , cue all pbtories to say it is all bad news for Labour .

Pulpstar

Populus red and blue are wrong.

TheScreamingEagles

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

Peter_the_Punter

FPT

Swiss_Bob said:

Labour don't just have to worry about UKIP. The Greens are taking votes off them. It won't show up well in polls if you believe that not prompting for the Greens would diminish their showing.

Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.

I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?

Hmmm....you could try backing Greens in Bristol W (14/1).

Apparently there's a lot of students and other soap-dodgers with votes there.

TheScreamingEagles

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

surbiton

The Lib Dems are clambering up according to ICM. Mark Senior et al bound to get excited !

___Bobajob___

Red lead in Populus too - the graph is transposed above.

Sunil_Prasannan

UKIP got 50.4% of the vote if you aggregate the votes at Clacton and Heywood. Lab second on 24.4 and Tories third on 19.1%. LDs on 3.0.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/521319049847115776

UKIP got 36.7% of the vote if you aggregate the votes at all by-elections so far this year (Wythenshawe, Newark, as well as Clacton and Heywood). Lab were second on 28.2, and Tories third on 26.2. LDs on 3.3%.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/521313156636098560

Sunil_Prasannan

ELBOW         UKIP %
17th Aug      13.1
24th Aug      13.0
31st Aug      14.5
7th Sep       14.9
14th Sep      15.6
21st Sep      15.3
28th Sep      14.7
5th Oct       14.4
12th Oct      16.2

___Bobajob___

TSE

No chance the Tories will be dim enough to remove Dave.

He's not great but he's by far the best they have.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

Major didn't go anywhere after Newbury 1993 !

Richard_Nabavi

I remain unconvinced that anything much is happening in voting intentions. There may be some looking in the figures for the patterns which people expect because of the political news.

Consider the following thought-experiment. Suppose you hadn't been following the news at all over the past few weeks, and you were simply going on the polling figures, looking at how they had changed compared with the previous two polls from the same pollsters.

Would you see anything other than noise?

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

MarkSenior

Peter_the_Punter said:

FPT

Swiss_Bob said:

Labour don't just have to worry about UKIP. The Greens are taking votes off them. It won't show up well in polls if you believe that not prompting for the Greens would diminish their showing.

Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.

I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?

Hmmm....you could try backing Greens in Bristol W (14/1).

Apparently there's a lot of students and other soap-dodgers with votes there.

Greens are not taking any votes off anyone . Their vote share in all council by elections July to date is a miserable 4% .

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

A marriage made in heaven!

Sunil_Prasannan

For those wot missed it earlier:

The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).

Lab 34.1% (-1.5)
Con 31.5 (-1.1)
UKIP 16.2% (+1.8)
LD 8.1% (+0.7)

Lab lead 2.6% (-0.3)

Changes from our very first ELBOW, week-ending 17th August:

Lab -2.1%
Con -1.6%
UKIP +3.1%
LD -0.7%

Lab lead -0.5%

UKIP rising
LD seem to be stabilising
Lab and Con both falling

Swiss_Bob

People here should be loving the rise of UKIP and maybe to a lesser extent the Greens for no other reason than all the great betting opportunities.

CarlottaVance

___Bobajob___ said:

TSE

No chance the Tories will be dim enough to remove Dave.

He's not great but he's by far the best they have.

The Tories only ever panic in a crisis......the people who brought us IDS are easily capable of such folly.....

MikeSmithson

CORRECTION

I got the Populus CON & LAB shares in wrong order. Now changed.

RodCrosby

ENPs of 4.4, 4.0 and 3.6 respectively...

JBriskin

"taxation without representation" - direct quote, in regards to EVEL, Conservative MP (BBC Parliament, 1725-1730)

dr_spyn

The tax the plebs to free the roads for the rich, eco-yuppies are upset for some reason. Greens throwing toys out of their recycled prams. Followers of the green cult are being encouraged to complain about right wing bias of BBC, and I am not making it up.

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

CORRECTION

I got the Populus CON & LAB shares in wrong order. Now changed.

I knew something didn't look right

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!

It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010

If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

But what's the betting strategy if CON win back Rochester? That's a lot more complicated.

I think it will really enthuse the blue team and give them confidence that they can see off Farage's crew. But how far it will take them I don't know.

Sunil_Prasannan

CarlottaVance said:

___Bobajob___ said:

TSE

No chance the Tories will be dim enough to remove Dave.

He's not great but he's by far the best they have.

The Tories only ever panic in a crisis......the people who brought us IDS are easily capable of such folly.....

IDS never lost a GE as leader

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

A marriage made in heaven!

So we're going to have the Green Fascists, The Nats and Galloway in an alliance.

In terms of unholy alliances, that's up there with the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and Axis of Evil.

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

___Bobajob___

RichardN

Correct. As per usual the conference season has made no difference. Every year we convince ourselves it will and every year we are proved wrong.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, suits Cameron and Miliband. Either UKIP don't get a seat, or they do, but so does every other small party, diluting Farage's time on the box.

NickPalmer

A pedant writes: I think the "far more ... and" in the penultimate sentence of the lead story is meant to be "far more ... than".

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline will be SO pleased.

___Bobajob___

TSE

There was a point this morning where ISam, Sean, Antifrank and myself all found ourselves on the same side.


It's clearly the day for unholy alliances.

MikeSmithson

RodCrosby said:

ENPs of 4.4, 4.0 and 3.6 respectively...

Perhaps you could explain what ENPs are.

Your use doesn't fit any off the suggestions coming up on Google.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1CASMAF_enGB604GB604&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#safe=off&q=enp+

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

But what's the betting strategy if CON win back Rochester? That's a lot more complicated.

I think it will really enthuse the blue team and give them confidence that they can see off Farage's crew. But how far it will take them I don't know.

I think the betting strategy will be to back the Tories to win the most votes and lay a Lab Maj/back NOM

I'm going to be very controversial, and say PB should ignore the national polling picture, and concentrate on the marginal/constituency polling.

RodCrosby

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!

It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010

If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either

and whether you are ministrable...

Greens have stated they'll never go into coalition, I believe.

isam

Here is a betting strategy

If UKIP in the by election in West Thurrock this week.. Have the mortgage on them to win Thurrock in the GE

fitalass

Sit back with a bag of popcorn and watch the broadcasters try and scupper their own televised Leadership debates without any input from Cameron and Co.

TwitterAdam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 59m59 minutes ago
@fitalass @weesnowie Unfortunately there was no agreement by parties to repeat 2010 format Broadcasters responded w. contructive alternative

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

BenS

@Peter & Swiss_bob

Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.

Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

TheScreamingEagles

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson

The following political parties have now launched a legal challenge to be included in the 2015 leaders' debates:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz1z92ZIEAAqpap.png

Swiss_Bob

Mr Senior, I was talking about UKIP doing well in the North some time ago. Re the Greens, I'm talking about a movement I see coming. You may disagree, remind me next May if I'm wrong. I think the Greens could damage Labour.

Mr Prasannan, Love the charts, I had thought as much, one reason I have been frequently betting on UKIP.

TSE, long odds but a punt on Cameron being overthrown before December is possible.

Mr Punter, Rochester was the easiest money I made on a political bet. I laid UKIP at 4, wasn't much of a bet but a great return when I bought UKIP back at about 1.6.

stodge

The only question Conservative backbenchers will be asking is "is there another leader who will save my seat and keep my job?"

This is why three-time election winning Margaret Thatcher was unceremoniously knifed in November 1990 - because polls showed them 10% behind Labour with her in charge with level with Michael Heseltine as leader.

After Major survived the rose garden putsch of June 1995, the Conservatives realised they had no other option but to keep him on - there was no one else acceptable (though Ken Clarke was more popular) so they went down to disaster in May 1997.

In 2003, after the Brent South by-election and a humiliating third place, the Conservatives were on the edge of the cliff and the very real possibility that under IDS they would finish third in terms of votes so IDS was pushed and Michael Howard came forward.

Today, David Cameron is on all measures more popular than his Party and the only other Conservative who could conceivably make a difference is out of the Commons and therefore out of the picture. Even if Rochester is lost, which other Conservative could take over and put up the Party's ratings instantly ? Not May or Osborne that's for certain.

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

Are you on the Kippers for the lot in R&S???

And what be 'appening with this bet??

CarlottaVance

Am I the only person to whom the Shadow Education Secretary’s resemblance to a red setter becomes more striking by the day? Like that noble hound, Tristram Hunt appears amiable, handsome, excitable and absolutely daft as a brush. I’m sure that’s not so — but it’s the impression, you see. In the chin-up angle at which he typically holds his head there is something irresistibly reminiscent of a dog sticking its head out of a car sun roof and being pleasantly surprised every time by what the wind does to its ears.

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/sam-leith-tristram-hunts-schools-babble-is-lost-in-translation-9791247.html

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

I once hired a butler (at a hotel I was staying at in London) they aren't all they are cracked up to be.

manofkent2014

UKIP Regional Vote Share Distribution from the Euro elections (position in comparison to other parties in brackets)

East Midlands 33% (1st)
Eastern 35% (1st)
London 17% (3rd)
North East 29% (2nd)
North West 28% (2nd)
South East 32% (1st)
South West 32% (1st)
West Midlands 32% (1st)
Yorkshire & Humber 31% (1st)
Scotland 11% (4th)
Wales 28% (2nd)
Northern Ireland 4% (7th)

Where UKIP came 2nd it was behind Labour
Where UKIP came 3rd it was behind Labour and Conservatives
Where UKIP came 4th it was behind SNP, Labour and Conservatives

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)

fitalass

And neither is Douglas Carsewell leader of UKIP yet!

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!

It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010

If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either

Artist

fitalass said:

Sit back with a bag of popcorn and watch the broadcasters try and scupper their own televised Leadership debates without any input from Cameron and Co.

TwitterAdam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 59m59 minutes ago
@fitalass @weesnowie Unfortunately there was no agreement by parties to repeat 2010 format Broadcasters responded w. contructive alternative

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Labour and Lib Dems support the 2010 format, so it's clear as day which party is deliberately dragging their heels on the debates.

nigel4england

stodge said:

The only question Conservative backbenchers will be asking is "is there another leader who will save my seat and keep my job?"

This is why three-time election winning Margaret Thatcher was unceremoniously knifed in November 1990 - because polls showed them 10% behind Labour with her in charge with level with Michael Heseltine as leader.

After Major survived the rose garden putsch of June 1995, the Conservatives realised they had no other option but to keep him on - there was no one else acceptable (though Ken Clarke was more popular) so they went down to disaster in May 1997.

In 2003, after the Brent South by-election and a humiliating third place, the Conservatives were on the edge of the cliff and the very real possibility that under IDS they would finish third in terms of votes so IDS was pushed and Michael Howard came forward.

Today, David Cameron is on all measures more popular than his Party and the only other Conservative who could conceivably make a difference is out of the Commons and therefore out of the picture. Even if Rochester is lost, which other Conservative could take over and put up the Party's ratings instantly ? Not May or Osborne that's for certain.

Agree with that but now some of them have another choice, as demonstrated by Carswell and Reckless.

I'm sure there must be a good few more thinking of defecting

isam

fitalass said:

And neither is Douglas Carsewell leader of UKIP yet!

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!

It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010

If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either

Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus

What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

I once hired a butler (at a hotel I was staying at in London) they aren't all they are cracked up to be.

I'm sure you would be wonderful, TSE. JackW and I will be delighted to have you.....after a Rochester landslide, of course.

dr_spyn

Not sure that Greens would squeeze in Bristol West, given antics of some of their councillors. But as @BenS points out Williams isn't an inspiring figure. Bear in mind that Ed Miliband's visit in April was a PR disaster, Labour hardly gained wards afterwards. Green support evaporates when you look at the wards further away from the Uni, but turnout tends to be lower as well. Williams might still stay on, but by skin of teeth, but Labour ought to be stronger challengers than the Greens, but will depend on their local organisation.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

fitalass said:

And neither is Douglas Carsewell leader of UKIP yet!

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgegalloway

I am ready to join Caroline Lucas MP in a legal challenge against our exclusion from the leaders debates in the forthcoming general election

Caroline Lucas isn't even the leader of a party!

It's not just about having an MP, it is how you have been doing in the Polls, how many seats you are contesting in the whole country, and by election results since 2010

If UKIP were doing as badly as Respect or the Greens across all measures, they wouldn't be entitled to have a voice in the debates either

Is it really that funny to mis spell Carswell every time? Jesus

What has that got to do with anything anyway? I haven't said Carswell was excluded

Oh never underestimate what passes for wit in some quarters.

There are still people who find Tony Bliar hilarious.

anotherDave

stodge said:

Today, David Cameron is on all measures more popular than his Party and the only other Conservative who could conceivably make a difference is out of the Commons and therefore out of the picture. Even if Rochester is lost, which other Conservative could take over and put up the Party's ratings instantly ? Not May or Osborne that's for certain.

The latest ComRes favourable/unfavourable numbers have Mr Cameron polling in line with the Conservative Party.

Mr Cameron: +25% / -48%
Conservative Party: +25% / -48%

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf

Swiss_Bob

dr_spyn said:

Not sure that Greens would squeeze in Bristol West, given antics of some of their councillors. But as @BenS points out Williams isn't an inspiring figure. Bear in mind that Ed Miliband's visit in April was a PR disaster, Labour hardly gained wards afterwards his presence. Green support evaporates when you look at the wards further away from the Uni. Williams might still stay on, but by skin of teeth, but Labour ought to be stronger than the Greens.

One to keep an eye on.

Thanks for the info @BenS.

JBriskin

Israel/Palestine debate on BBC Parliament now

TheScreamingEagles

anotherDave said:

stodge said:

Today, David Cameron is on all measures more popular than his Party and the only other Conservative who could conceivably make a difference is out of the Commons and therefore out of the picture. Even if Rochester is lost, which other Conservative could take over and put up the Party's ratings instantly ? Not May or Osborne that's for certain.

The latest ComRes favourable/unfavourable numbers have Mr Cameron polling in line with the Conservative Party.

Mr Cameron: +25% / -48%
Conservative Party: +25% / -48%

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf

But the gold standard for that type of questioning is Ipsos-Mori

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

stodge said:

Today, David Cameron is on all measures more popular than his Party and the only other Conservative who could conceivably make a difference is out of the Commons and therefore out of the picture. Even if Rochester is lost, which other Conservative could take over and put up the Party's ratings instantly ? Not May or Osborne that's for certain.

The latest ComRes favourable/unfavourable numbers have Mr Cameron polling in line with the Conservative Party.

Mr Cameron: +25% / -48%
Conservative Party: +25% / -48%

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf

But the gold standard for that type of questioning is Ipsos-Mori

It doesn't matter as Cameron is leading 2 parties not one.

___Bobajob___

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

Sunil_Prasannan

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

I once hired a butler (at a hotel I was staying at in London) they aren't all they are cracked up to be.

I'm sure you would be wonderful, TSE. JackW and I will be delighted to have you.....after a Rochester landslide, of course.

Speaking of PB's favourite Jacobite, I haven't seen him posting in ages. Hope he's OK. I don't want my fellow PBers unable to discern his ARSE from my ELBOW

___Bobajob___

Fitalass

The spectacle of the Tories and their PB Tory wing trying to worm out of the debates today really has been an entertaining sight. Cam must be chicken. The rest is mere sophistry.

RodCrosby

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

ENPs of 4.4, 4.0 and 3.6 respectively...

Perhaps you could explain what ENPs are.

Your use doesn't fit any off the suggestions coming up on Google.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1CASMAF_enGB604GB604&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#safe=off&q=enp+

Rein Taagepera's Effective Number of Parties. An objective metric which computes the fragmentation of the electorate. From the polls at least, it appears we are moving to a 4-party system.

Historical vote ENPs (GB)

The figures in brackets show the fragmentation of the House of Commons in comparison.

1945 2.7 (2.1)
1950 2.4 (2.1)
1951 2.1 (2.1)
1955 2.2 (2.0)
1959 2.3 (2.0)
1964 2.5 (2.1)
1966 2.4 (2.0)
1970 2.5 (2.1)
1974F 3.1 (2.3)
1974O 3.2 (2.3)
1979 2.9 (2.2)
1983 3.5 (2.1)
1987 3.3 (2.2)
1992 3.1 (2.3)
1997 3.2 (2.1)
2001 3.3 (2.2)
2005 3.6 (2.5)
2010 3.7 (2.6)

So in terms of votes we've been at least a 3 party system since 1974. FPTP managed to keep the system looking like a 2-party system until about 2005.

Now it looks like we're heading for a 4-party system in votes and a 3-party in seats...

stodge

Artist said:

Labour and Lib Dems support the 2010 format, so it's clear as day which party is deliberately dragging their heels on the debates.

No, ScottP said (or rather retweeted some Tories who claimed) that the Conservatives were the ones in favour of everything and it was all the nasty other parties that were causing trouble.

Peter_the_Punter

BenS said:

@Peter & Swiss_bob

Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.

Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...

Thanks BenS.

Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.

Can you keep us updated?

GIN1138

ICM proves what we've always known. UKIP damages the Tories far more than Labour and with the right wing vote split Labour is cruising the power on less than 35% of the vote.

Or put another way right wing voters are idiots.

Peter_the_Punter

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

I once hired a butler (at a hotel I was staying at in London) they aren't all they are cracked up to be.

I'm sure you would be wonderful, TSE. JackW and I will be delighted to have you.....after a Rochester landslide, of course.

Speaking of PB's favourite Jacobite, I haven't seen him posting in ages. Hope he's OK. I don't want my fellow PBers unable to discern his ARSE from my ELBOW

He's on holiday, Sunil.

You'll know soon enough when his ARSE reverberates once more around these parts.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT - PtP

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably) I think the better betting strategies is to

1) Bet on more defections

2) Expect 46 letters to be received by Graham Brady shortly thereafter and look at the next PM/Tory leader markets

If Reckless holds Rochester (comfortably), Dear Boy, my next post will be from the deck of a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. :-)

Take me with you!

Speak to me after the vote. We may need a butler.

I once hired a butler (at a hotel I was staying at in London) they aren't all they are cracked up to be.

"Poll-wallah" in TSE's case?

surbiton

GIN1138 said:

ICM proves what we've always known. UKIP damages the Tories far more than Labour and with the right wing vote split Labour is cruising the power on less than 35% of the vote.

Or put another way right wing voters are idiots.

Many PB Tories are vehemently in denial about this.

Socrates

GIN1138 said:

ICM proves what we've always known. UKIP damages the Tories far more than Labour and with the right wing vote split Labour is cruising the power on less than 35% of the vote.

Or put another way right wing voters are idiots.

The split is about the EU and immigration. Right-wing voters should just unite around the party that encapulates their views on the EU and immigration, as shown by opinion polls: Hint: it's not the Tories.

HurstLlama

Is Southam Observer still about? If he is he might enjoy this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/robert-colvile/11158607/Yes-CEOs-are-ludicrously-overpaid.-And-yes-its-getting-worse.html

Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.

HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.

Socrates

@RodCrosby

Tell me how PR^2 maintains a constituency-candidate link, as you've claimed recently. Surely a big chunk of MPs would have to be top-ups?

TheWatcher

HurstLlama said:

Is Southam Observer still about? If he is he might enjoy this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/robert-colvile/11158607/Yes-CEOs-are-ludicrously-overpaid.-And-yes-its-getting-worse.html

Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.

HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.

Shouldn't it be up to the shareholders?

isam

Half eight tonight BBC1

The FARAGE Factor!!!!!

surbiton

Peter_the_Punter said:

BenS said:

@Peter & Swiss_bob

Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.

Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...

Thanks BenS.

Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.

Can you keep us updated?

The Anti Iraq vote has depreciated somewhat through time. Blair was replaced by Brown and then by Ed Miliband who was not even in Parliament then.

Charlie Kennedy could have kept a few but the LD's decided to get rid of him. What good that did only they can tell ?

TheWatcher

___Bobajob___ said:

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

You mustn't leave out Gideon.

MarqueeMark

Last Thursday was UKIP's equivalent of a conference bounce.

But UKIP still has no positive policies yet for May 2015. Labour has no policies either, just a selling point of "we're not the Tories...." UKIP has a selling point of "we're neither Labour nor the Tories...." Neither of those are enough to go into an election with.

Going to be interesting seeing Farage and Carswell thrashing out a manifesto they can agree upon....

Socrates

SeanT said:

One thing we can say for sure is that the days of Labour in the 40s are a very distant memory - never to return? And the secular trend for them is still very gently downwards.

Here's a massively random guess. I reckon Labour will hit 32-33 in the GE. Tories will do about the same, maybe a notch higher. UKIP 12. Lib Dems 12?

Miliband will run a very weak NOM government, wounded by SNP attacks. UKIP will have a handful of seats. New election in 2017?

This is what I've been saying for ages. And how many disillusioned white working class Labour voters do you think there will in 2017, after Miliband is forced to make rounds of cuts, half a million more immigrants turn up every year, and the economy maintains lumbers along? Where will those voters go - back to the Coalition parties? Or to an insurgent party whose party leader doesn't look down on the plebs...

Peter_the_Punter

TheWatcher said:

HurstLlama said:

Is Southam Observer still about? If he is he might enjoy this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/robert-colvile/11158607/Yes-CEOs-are-ludicrously-overpaid.-And-yes-its-getting-worse.html

Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.

HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.

Shouldn't it be down to the shareholders?

In practice, it's down to the remuneration committees. And they all sit on each other's remuneration committees.

Nice work if you can get it.

GIN1138

Socrates said:

GIN1138 said:

ICM proves what we've always known. UKIP damages the Tories far more than Labour and with the right wing vote split Labour is cruising the power on less than 35% of the vote.

Or put another way right wing voters are idiots.

The split is about the EU and immigration. Right-wing voters should just unite around the party that encapulates their views on the EU and immigration, as shown by opinion polls: Hint: it's not the Tories.

But that party has absolutely no chance of getting anywhere near power in the current circumstances and so what your actually going to achieve is an Ed Milliband run Labour government which will be the antithesis of what your hoping for.

Speedy

On the speculation that David Cameron is going to be replaced after UKIP win Rochester, there are many things that make it possible, her are a few:

1. The Tories will have to focus on UKIP, either making a deal or stealing their voters.
2. Cameron is hated more by UKIP voters that by Labour voters according to Ashcroft's polls.
3. Cameron bombed with UKIP voters after the Tory conference.
4. There are many with leadership aspirations in the Tory party, they have an incentive for UKIP to win Rochester to start the leadership race.
5. The new leader may also only be temporary, just to make a deal with UKIP or be credible with UKIP voters for the election and step down afterwards, hence Boris or anyone else who isn't ready can gain time.
6. Cameron has been leader for 9 years now, that is longer since anyone since Thatcher, and as long as Ted Heath, many will think that's their turn to be leader.

I point to reason 5 as to why I think David Davis might get it, he's popular with those who left the Tories for UKIP, he's not in the cabinet so he's not tainted by the coalition, and he's too old so he won't stick around for long.

Anorak

TheWatcher said:

___Bobajob___ said:

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

You mustn't leave out Gideon.

EUSSR is my fave. It's just so....crap.

EDIT: Liebore is actually so crap it passed beyond "humourous" crap into "crap" crap. EDIT 2: "Crap" is one of those words that sounds more ludicrous the more you say it. Crap, crap, crap, crap, crap.

MikeL

Re TV debates - the official statement does not make a proposal re what order the debates would take place in.

In my view, Cameron would accept the proposal as long as the 4 man debate was the first one. He just might accept the 4 man debate being the second debate but under no circumstances would he agree to the 4 man debate being last.

Ideally, he would want the order to be 4, 3, 2. However I'm sure he would settle for 4, 2, 3.

Clegg would obviously prefer 4, 2, 3.

TheWatcher

Socrates said:

SeanT said:

One thing we can say for sure is that the days of Labour in the 40s are a very distant memory - never to return? And the secular trend for them is still very gently downwards.

Here's a massively random guess. I reckon Labour will hit 32-33 in the GE. Tories will do about the same, maybe a notch higher. UKIP 12. Lib Dems 12?

Miliband will run a very weak NOM government, wounded by SNP attacks. UKIP will have a handful of seats. New election in 2017?

This is what I've been saying for ages. And how many disillusioned white working class Labour voters do you think there will in 2017, after Miliband is forced to make rounds of cuts, half a million more immigrants turn up every year, and the economy maintains lumbers along? Where will those voters go - back to the Coalition parties? Or to an insurgent party whose party leader doesn't look down on the plebs...

The BNP? Or the Lite version?

Swiss_Bob

isam said:

Half eight tonight BBC1

The FARAGE Factor!!!!!

I might be being too sceptical here but I'm guessing this is going to be a serious hatchet job.

Might be time to lay a few bets.

HYUFD

Ridiculous news that the Greens are to be excluded from the TV debates despite having a council, MP and MEPs. George Galloway just announced he will be launching a legel action for inclusion in the debates and asked Greens to join him. Cameron sensibly effectively refused to debate with UKIP today without the Greens present. These polls show that absolutely right, he needs the Greens to start splitting the Labour vote as UKIP are splitting the Tory vote, indeed if this row increases the Green vote that could help the Tories.

New Zealand's recent election had 2 debates between the main party leaders and 1 with 8 party leaders. No reason we could not do the same, that would allow UKIP, the Greens, SNP, Plaid and Respect to all be included. NI could hold their own debate as none of the main UK players are forces there.

http://tvnz.co.nz/vote-2014/debates

manofkent2014

MarqueeMark said:

Last Thursday was UKIP's equivalent of a conference bounce.

But UKIP still has no positive policies yet for May 2015. Labour has no policies either, just a selling point of "we're not the Tories...." UKIP has a selling point of "we're neither Labour nor the Tories...." Neither of those are enough to go into an election with.

Going to be interesting seeing Farage and Carswell thrashing out a manifesto they can agree upon....

Yeah right according to who? There are 92 proposals/positions on the linked page:

http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

Peter_the_Punter

___Bobajob___ said:

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

To be fair, Bliar was probably quite funny first time round. It even had a certain resonance when he was trying to lie his way out of responsibility for Iraq. It was only after about the 50th time you saw it that you wanted to slap the person using it. As with car bumper stickers, it's like being told the same joke again, and again.

Chameleon was always contrived, but Red has a certain whimsical usefulness.

Carsewell is worse than Chameleon.

___Bobajob___

TheWatcher said:

___Bobajob___ said:

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

You mustn't leave out Gideon.

Nick Smeg and Dr Caroline Pukeas were new lows.

SeanT once refereed to me as Knobajob

GIN1138

Speedy said:

On the speculation that David Cameron is going to be replaced after UKIP win Rochester, there are many things that make it possible, her are a few:

1. The Tories will have to focus on UKIP, either making a deal or stealing their voters.
2. Cameron is hated more by UKIP voters that by Labour voters according to Ashcroft's polls.
3. Cameron bombed with UKIP voters after the Tory conference.
4. There are many with leadership aspirations in the Tory party, they have an incentive for UKIP to win Rochester to start the leadership race.
5. The new leader may also only be temporary, just to make a deal with UKIP or be credible with UKIP voters for the election and step down afterwards, hence Boris or anyone else who isn't ready can gain time.
6. Cameron has been leader for 9 years now, that is longer since anyone since Thatcher, and as long as Ted Heath, many will think that's their turn to be leader.

I point to reason 5 as to why I think David Davis might get it, he's popular with those who left the Tories for UKIP, he's not in the cabinet so he's not tainted by the coalition, and he's too old so he won't stick around for long.

It's like picking a new Pope isn't it!

surbiton

dr_spyn said:

Not sure that Greens would squeeze in Bristol West, given antics of some of their councillors. But as @BenS points out Williams isn't an inspiring figure. Bear in mind that Ed Miliband's visit in April was a PR disaster, Labour hardly gained wards afterwards. Green support evaporates when you look at the wards further away from the Uni, but turnout tends to be lower as well. Williams might still stay on, but by skin of teeth, but Labour ought to be stronger challengers than the Greens, but will depend on their local organisation.

So Greens will jump from 3.8% [ like Heywood ] and win the Bristol West seat ? Unless Tories vote tactically yellow, it is probably a Labour gain !

TheWatcher

Swiss_Bob said:

isam said:

Half eight tonight BBC1

The FARAGE Factor!!!!!

I might be being too sceptical here but I'm guessing this is going to be a serious hatchet job.

Might be time to lay a few bets.

I wonder if they looked into his schooldays.

manofkent2014

HYUFD said:

Ridiculous news that the Greens are to be excluded from the TV debates despite having a council, MP and MEPs. George Galloway just announced he will be launching a legel action for inclusion in the debates and asked Greens to join him. Cameron sensibly effectively refused to debate with UKIP today without the Greens present. These polls show that absolutely right, he needs the Greens to start splitting the Labour vote as UKIP are splitting the Tory vote, indeed if this row increases the Green vote that could help the Tories.

New Zealand's recent election had 2 debates between the main party leaders and 1 with 8 party leaders. No reason we could not do the same, that would allow UKIP, the Greens, SNP, Plaid and Respect to all be included. NI could hold their own debate as none of the main UK players are forces there.

http://tvnz.co.nz/vote-2014/debates

Yes there is. It gives a biased impression of the election that only two parties can win. The debates must be fair and without bias else they are just a propaganda vehicle!

Hugh

MikeL said:

Re TV debates - the official statement does not make a proposal re what order the debates would take place in.

In my view, Cameron would accept the proposal as long as the 4 man debate was the first one. He just might accept the 4 man debate being the second debate but under no circumstances would he agree to the 4 man debate being last.

Ideally, he would want the order to be 4, 3, 2. However I'm sure he would settle for 4, 2, 3.

Clegg would obviously prefer 4, 2, 3.

Jumpers for goalposts, Ron. Marvellous.

HurstLlama

TheWatcher said:

HurstLlama said:

Is Southam Observer still about? If he is he might enjoy this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/robert-colvile/11158607/Yes-CEOs-are-ludicrously-overpaid.-And-yes-its-getting-worse.html

Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.

HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.

Shouldn't it be up to the shareholders?

That is the traditional view, Mr. Watcher. However, the wealth inequalities are now reaching such proportions as to become a political issue that is mentioned even in the Telegraph. The lack of correlation between top executive pay and performance of companies only aggravates the political impacts.

So, yes it should be up to the shareholders but as the shareholders and the remuneration committees seem to be unwilling to address an issue that is now having a political and social impact politicians are going to get involved.

MarkSenior

Peter_the_Punter said:

BenS said:

@Peter & Swiss_bob

Never been able to give a betting opinion here before : ) but Bristol West @14/1 for the Greens isn't a bad bet. Stephen Williams (current Lib Dem incumbent) has the haunted look of a dead man walking and is pretty universally hated, both in policy terms (student loans), betraying the left-wing protest vote (coalition government), and personal failings (he just isn't a very good politician or public speaker, or very likeable). The Bristol Green Party is in a local coalition on the council with an indie mayor, which has raised their profile massively in local print and social, and what little resources the GP have are going to be directed at Bris West.

Massive student demographic, large middle-class-but-left-wing population, large anti-Labour vote (mainly because of Iraq) = the Greens could just squeak it...

Thanks BenS.

Always nice to hear from a local. That confirms what I have heard elsewhere and when two independent sources concur, I generally plunge in.

Can you keep us updated?

No of councillors in the wards making up Bristol West LD 8 Green 5 Lab 4 Con 1
LD lead in terms of votes also
Look at facts rather than the personal views of those with axes to grind . Stephen Williams to hold quite comfortably .Labour 2nd and Greens to underperform their council results as usual .

Swiss_Bob

TheWatcher said:

Swiss_Bob said:

isam said:

Half eight tonight BBC1

The FARAGE Factor!!!!!

I might be being too sceptical here but I'm guessing this is going to be a serious hatchet job.

Might be time to lay a few bets.

I wonder if they looked into his schooldays.

No one really cares about that. It's what they may have dug up and how they spin it.

For example. Austin Mitchell came up as a possible defector yesterday and all of a sudden all his transgressions are relisted. They don't mention them everytime he gives a quote for Labour or is in the news for some other reason, unless it's him making a cock of himself again.

Anorak

HurstLlama said:

TheWatcher said:

HurstLlama said:

Is Southam Observer still about? If he is he might enjoy this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/robert-colvile/11158607/Yes-CEOs-are-ludicrously-overpaid.-And-yes-its-getting-worse.html

Amongst other things it includes some UK stats which back up those I posted a while back from the USA that show there is no correlation between what top executives get paid and the performance of their companies.

HMG is going to have to step into this mess soon, if they don't UKIP will.

Shouldn't it be up to the shareholders?

That is the traditional view, Mr. Watcher. However, the wealth inequalities are now reaching such proportions as to become a political issue that is mentioned even in the Telegraph. The lack of correlation between top executive pay and performance of companies only aggravates the political impacts.

So, yes it should be up to the shareholders but as the shareholders and the remuneration committees seem to be unwilling to address an issue that is now having a political and social impact politicians are going to get involved.

For most large companies, even very high executive pay is a fraction of a fraction of a percentage of costs. Shareholders usually have more important things on their minds that voting down pay packages out of envy.

TheWatcher

___Bobajob___ said:

TheWatcher said:

___Bobajob___ said:

We've had to put up with Dave Chameleon and Red too.

Carsewell is probably even worse that Bliar and that is saying something

You mustn't leave out Gideon.

Nick Smeg and Dr Caroline Pukeas were new lows.

SeanT once refereed to me as Knobajob

Did you Flounce?