Baron's flirty comment is odd - preparing the ground?
I was only half paying attention but I thought I heard him say he was emphatically not going to join UKIP.
I had dinner last night with someone who didnt know what UKIP was.He was an intelligent, 40+yo, highly paid IT professional. I generally try not to overestimate how much other people follow politics but that did surprise me .
Best of luck to MikeK - it's normally very straightforward but will be good to have it done.
Baron's flirty comment is odd - preparing the ground? Building a negotiating position? Or just genuinely laid-back?
When asked if he was thinking of defecting, he said how nice it was that the Tory leadership were accommodating the backbenchers views now compared with 2012, and that UKIP have not approached him yet, his concluding remarks in "if he will defect to UKIP?" was "never say never". That "never say never" of course started the speculation from the presenter and the Labour guest but he still stuck on the "I'm currently happy but never say never" line.
I think he's building a negotiating position, or call it blackmailing the whips.
Wow - it's amazing how many versions of it there My favourite Stones tracks
Start Me Up, I'm Free, Brown Sugar, Paint It Black, You Can't Always Get What You Want, I Can't Get No Satisfaction, Everybody Needs Somebody To Love (Was performed on their Forty Licks Tour and is on the Live Licks album), Not Fade Away, Let's Spend The Night Together, She's A Rainbow, Wild Horses, Ruby Tuesday.
Also a Springsteen fan, download his cover of Because The Night on iTunes.
Cover? COVER?
My memory maybe a bit hazy, I knew he wrote it, but wasn't it first performed by The Patti Smith Group?
Or is this my biggest musical faux pas on PB since I outed myself as a Right Said Fred fan.
Springsteen wrote the song during the Darkness sessions but never got round to finishing it properly. His engineer Jimmy Iovine talked Springsteen into giving it to Patti Smith who finished it and recorded it, hence the co-writing credit.
Other songs Springsteen gave away include the Pointer Sisters song Fire, and Dave Edmunds brilliant From Small Things Mama, Big Things One Day Come.
If I was ever on Mastermind the Works of Bruce Springsteen would be my specialist subject, sad old git that I am!
I think he has but I'm not a fan either.
Actually as you are a country fan try to get hold of the Springsteen album Nebraska, virtually all of which has been covered by country artists such as Johnny Cash and the Drive By Truckers over the years.
My favorites are Highway Patrolman and Mansion on the Hill, but take the time to check the whole album out, I promise you won't be disappointed.
Not It's not 'Money' is one of the original Motown songs Bern Elliot's was a cover
There are. You can find another version of Money on Youtube by the Kingsmen who were the band who originally did Louie, Louie
It's amazing how many versions there are of some songs. One of my favourites is the Neil Young version of Four Strong Winds, but even The Searchers did their own version.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
Best of luck to MikeK - it's normally very straightforward but will be good to have it done.
Baron's flirty comment is odd - preparing the ground? Building a negotiating position? Or just genuinely laid-back?
When asked if he was thinking of defecting, he said how nice it was that the Tory leadership were accommodating the backbenchers views now compared with 2012, and that UKIP have not approached him yet, his concluding remarks in "if he will defect to UKIP?" was "never say never". That "never say never" of course started the speculation from the presenter and the Labour guest but he still stuck on the "I'm currently happy but never say never" line.
I think he's building a negotiating position, or call it blackmailing the whips.
Basildon Euro results
UK Independence Party 18926 45% Conservative 10202 24% Labour 7301 17% Green Party 2032 5% Liberal Democrat 1233 3%
Worst week for S&P 500, Nasdaq since May 2012. Dax tanks; Europe closes sharply lower. And I've got to have a prostate op this coming Thursday.
They say things come in threes.
Keep in touch with your local support group. They can be a massive help, and above all, take control, after you have the op. You can pm me if you want.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
Cameron will never agree to a UKIP pact, I think he despises them and their voters. The Tories will have to change leader and install someone more down to earth in order to make a deal.
But that is the appealing thing for someone within the Tory party to be supporting UKIP. If you are someone who aspires for the party leadership, the only way to get rid of Cameron is by boosting UKIP so much that either Cameron loses the next election due to them or forcing Cameron to step down for the Tories to remain in power with a UKIP deal.
Yokel There is a narrow route into Kobani still uncontrolled by ISIS according to reports I read, that is where supplies and weaponary should be directed
It doesn't matter that it exists, someone has to bring supplies in and someone has to let them in. Who in both cases?
The only viable FSA routes of self control is from the west.
Edit: And even then they'll have to fight part of the way.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
I presume you mean EU but hey if they want to leave the UK perhaps they can take Dave with them!
As far as I am aware there will be no accommodations for Tory candidates this time around. UKIP will be providing a full slate of candidates
Best of luck to MikeK - it's normally very straightforward but will be good to have it done.
Baron's flirty comment is odd - preparing the ground? Building a negotiating position? Or just genuinely laid-back?
When asked if he was thinking of defecting, he said how nice it was that the Tory leadership were accommodating the backbenchers views now compared with 2012, and that UKIP have not approached him yet, his concluding remarks in "if he will defect to UKIP?" was "never say never". That "never say never" of course started the speculation from the presenter and the Labour guest but he still stuck on the "I'm currently happy but never say never" line.
I think he's building a negotiating position, or call it blackmailing the whips.
Basildon Euro results
UK Independence Party 18926 45% Conservative 10202 24% Labour 7301 17% Green Party 2032 5% Liberal Democrat 1233 3%
The only ingredients missing is the local popularity of John Baron and his hold on the local party.
@plmrgn: Fella from Clacton on the radio then, "I voted UKIP because I haven't seen my MP since the last election!"
Hate to break it to ya, pal...
The mind boggles - where do they find them..?
This morning on Radio 5 live, they were interviewing a couple. The woman was a past Tory voter and her partner was an ex Labour voter.
He was voting UKIP because he distrusted Cameron as Cameron would not give a referendum on Europe.
The woman was voting UKIP because she wanted the minimum wage was too low and she wanted a minimum "living wage". Er....so why are you voting UKIP ?
Maybe because the proposal to raise the lower threshold of income tax to the level of the minimum wage would go a long way to turning the minimum wage into the living wage.
If they were to raise NI thresholds the same way (as advocated by at least one of UKIPs economics bloggers), the difference between the living wage and the minimum wage would end up being pennies at most.
Or, in short: the minimum wage is pretty much the living wage as calculated by Rowntree ... except that then we come along and take some of it away from those on it in tax and NI. Which is of questionable morality at the best of times ("Ah. You earn almost exactly the lowest possible amount to live on. We will therefore take some of kt away, even though we recognise that you can't possibly afford it").
The tories own policy is to raise the basic tax threshold as well as the higher one. The point is they are going to cut expenditure to pay for it. I find it amusing to listen to people who want to see a better health service, better pensions etc but propose cuts to the 'Insurance' that is desingnated to pay for them.
UKIP now only 0.6% behind the Tories in the aggregate by-election vote-shares for this parliament!
You know in 1997 Labour had that nice music in the background "Things can only get better" ect ect. With UKIP's explosive entrance these past 2 years what should their campaign background music be?
I'll go with this, it's 80's, it's upbeat and the lyrics have some relevance to UKIP's rise:
according to CNN Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics did an analysis of cometitive senate races going back to 2010 and 2012. In 23 of 31 competitive races (competitive was not defined) the Democrat ran within 5 points of Obama's approval rating. In no race did the Democrat do better than 10 points ahead of Obama's approval rating. If that holds true - and in most battleground states his approval is 35 at best, it could be interesting.
Flipping over to Fox while typing that, their talking heads are making a similar point but I missed the beginning of the discusion.
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
I presume you mean EU but hey if they want to leave the UK perhaps they can take Dave with them!
As far as I am aware there will be no accommodations for Tory candidates this time around. UKIP will be providing a full slate of candidates
I did mean the EU, but perhaps it could be the UK. If the Tories want an English parliament, then it could lead to a total break up of the UK. With parliament back next week, I should imagine the Tories will start debates on EV4EL, to try to find out the position of Labour and Lib Dems. I don't think they can just change the HOC rules to restrict who can vote on English only issues. What would they do about the HOL, where non English based peers could vote on English only issues ? Would they stop the Bishops and crossbenchers voting ?
UKIP now only 0.6% behind the Tories in the aggregate by-election vote-shares for this parliament!
You know in 1997 Labour had that nice music in the background "Things can only get better" ect ect. With UKIP's explosive entrance these past 2 years what should their campaign background music be?
I'll go with this, it's 80's, it's upbeat and the lyrics have some relevance to UKIP's rise:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6Agwu_5J14
You know, that's my favourite Kim song
BTW - correction UKIP now only *0.5%* behind the Tories in the aggregate by-election vote-shares for this parliament!
In case you missed it, the Clinton Presidential Library today released a boatload of documents concerning Whitewater and Lewinsky. Releasing them early and in the middle of other news is a smart move.
Yokel Special Forces can bring them in, air drops, there are plenty of ways
If the Turks veto it, how can they get there? The closest non-ISIS area outside of Syria is way inside Iraq.
This sounds unfortunately like your early Clacton suggestions that the Tories should have Peter Tachell as their candidate in order to try and get the working class Labour vote.
In case you missed it, the Clinton Presidential Library today released a boatload of documents concerning Whitewater and Lewinsky. Releasing them early and in the middle of other news is a smart move.
Fox News will dissect them any time they like. Goodnight.
In case you missed it, the Clinton Presidential Library today released a boatload of documents concerning Whitewater and Lewinsky. Releasing them early and in the middle of other news is a smart move.
Fox News will dissect them any time they like.
They're old news, Speedy - Fox News said they would not be a factor, released 2 years ahead.
I assume from your comment you are not a Fox News viewer?
So what do we expect tomorrow's post-by-election polls to show? Might be worth a column to collect guesses?
Tentatively I suggest they won't be quite as dramatic as one might expect (i.e. UKIP won't leap into 1st or 2nd place), but maybe the big parties at 30ish and UKIP near 20? But that could easily be way out. I've got four canvass sessions this weekend - will be interesitng to see what's registered.
Yokel It is not that difficult to drop supplies into Kurdish areas with all the technology the western airforce has at its disposal, nor would it be that difficult for the SAS Navy Seals etc to bring in supplies themselves
I can't see Cameron agreeing to any Tory pact with UKIP, as I don't think he trusts them and dislikes what some of them stand for. I suspect it will just be the same as before that UKIP won't stand against Tories who want to leave the UK.
I presume you mean EU but hey if they want to leave the UK perhaps they can take Dave with them!
As far as I am aware there will be no accommodations for Tory candidates this time around. UKIP will be providing a full slate of candidates
I did mean the EU, but perhaps it could be the UK. If the Tories want an English parliament, then it could lead to a total break up of the UK. With parliament back next week, I should imagine the Tories will start debates on EV4EL, to try to find out the position of Labour and Lib Dems. I don't think they can just change the HOC rules to restrict who can vote on English only issues. What would they do about the HOL, where non English based peers could vote on English only issues ? Would they stop the Bishops and crossbenchers voting ?
EV4EL is not as simple an issue as some claim.
Indeed EV4EL only does a small amount of what needs to be done. As you've said there is the issue of the HoL, and then there is the issue of Ministers and the controlling the agenda of devolved areas and controlling the funding of devolved areas and not forgetting the issue of departments that deal with both centralised and devolved issues. EV4EL sounds goods but in reality is rather hollow.
I doubt very much that the Tories will back an English Parliament. Cameron is opposed I believe although he did during his leadership campaign in 2005 declare for an English Parliament but only until Ken Clarke called him a xenophobe.
Yokel It is not that difficult to drop supplies into Kurdish areas with all the technology the western airforce has at its disposal, nor would it be that difficult for the SAS Navy Seals etc to bring in supplies themselves
No one is willing to do it up to this point, thats the reality.
Want to try to resupply by force? How many special forces do you think are needed to secure and conduct a resupply operation in an area where there is no co-operation from Turkey?
Yokel There are already special forces in the area, might as well ensure they are put to good use. Supported by heavy air strikes a path could be cleared for Chinooks to drop supplies, then move out again. Turkey cannot be relied on, but must be warned it will be kicked out of NATO if it does anything to harm the operation
Tim B Greg Orman voted for Romney in 2012 and Obama in 2008, he seems a genuine swing voter
He's an odd duck - he won't tell the press where he's campaigning, refuses almost all interview requests and his platform is somewhat vague at best. He won't say if he supports the repeal of Obamacare. He's a Democrat in all but name.
He held a fund raiser at the home of liberal Massachusetts democrat Chester Atkins last month, and won't say who he will caucus with, which only makes sense if it's the dems.
If that's 'a genuine swing candidate' you'll have to go a long way to convince me.
Yokel There are already special forces in the area, might as well ensure they are put to good use. Supported by heavy air strikes a path could be cleared for Chinooks to drop supplies, then move out again. Turkey cannot be relied on, but must be warned it will be kicked out of NATO if it does anything to harm the operation
ISIS is apparently now 8 miles from Baghdad Airport.
Also remember that Uncle Sam launched 14 air strikes in 2 days and how pathetic that was? Today it was ONE. This is a joke to give Obama political cover without actually doing much.
ISIS is apparently now 8 miles from Baghdad Airport.
Also remember that Uncle Sam launched 14 air strikes in 2 days and how pathetic that was? Today it was ONE. This is a joke to give Obama political cover without actually doing much.
Tim, the US will work very hard indeed to hold that, mainly due to its status as an escape point, hence the appearance of attack helicopters on the scene over the last 7-10 days.
TimB ISIS has been '8 miles from Baghdad' since June when I watched it in Tuscany, they will never enter Baghdad unless in a bloodbath clash with Shia militias most likely supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
TimB ISIS has been '8 miles from Baghdad' since June when I watched it in Tuscany, they will never enter Baghdad unless in a bloodbath clash with Shia militias most likely supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
I've not been following that particular aspect so was surprised to see it pop onscreen.
FU Not only do you need to have been to Eton to be PM, Archbishop of Canterbury or Mayor of London, it now seems you need to have been there to lead ISIS and jihad, soon we will have PPE graduates leading international terrorism!
Yokel As many as it takes, but we are talking about 1 section of 20,000 strong ISIS spread across Iraq and Syria, not the entire Wehrmacht
The answer is that it doesn't matter how many. No one is willing to do it right now and at IS current rate of gain the battle is going one way.
Its also a completely unsuitable role for special forces to resupply and restock a 2000 or so strong force of Kurdish and FSA fighters. They are better used elsewhere and for other purposes.
Same as the much vaunted airstrikes, cack handed, poorly co-ordinated, poor intelligence, poor volume ,and now IS holds half the city and operates very close to their opponents, rather harder to do.
Yokel If ISIS gains were so brilliant Kobane would have fallen last weekend, if anything they lost ground for much of this week with Kurdish resistance. Why is it unsuitable for special forces, what else are they doing which is so vital? All they need to do is clear the ground for some Chinooks supported by air cover to land some supplies then get out again.
The attitude towards ISIS is rather pathetic, they are basically a group of jumped up bandits who happen to be good at gaining publicity for beheadings and chasing away some of the Iraqi army from Sunni heartlands, they are hardly the Nazis or Napoleon.
Tim B The author concludes 'Despite himself, Obama has made the case for limited government more powerfully than his opponents. The biggest question in American politics over the next two years is a simple one: Can Republicans take advantage of it?' In a word, No, both the GOP and liberal Obama have made a less than stellar job of the presidency, so in the end we are back where we started with the Clintons, and the wife of the man who stated 'the age of big government is over'. The fact that the most electable of the GOP top tier has the surname Bush says it all
Tim B The author concludes 'Despite himself, Obama has made the case for limited government more powerfully than his opponents. The biggest question in American politics over the next two years is a simple one: Can Republicans take advantage of it?' In a word, No, both the GOP and liberal Obama have made a less than stellar job of the presidency, so in the end we are back where we started with the Clintons, and the wife of the man who stated 'the age of big government is over'. The fact that the most electable of the GOP top tier has the surname Bush says it all
I said it was worth a read. Hard to argue with that quote. It's a good article.
Yokel If ISIS gains were so brilliant Kobane would have fallen last weekend, if anything they lost ground for much of this week with Kurdish resistance. Why is it unsuitable for special forces, what else are they doing which is so vital? All they need to do is clear the ground for some Chinooks supported by air cover to land some supplies then get out again.
The attitude towards ISIS is rather pathetic, they are basically a group of jumped up bandits who happen to be good at gaining publicity for beheadings and chasing away some of the Iraqi army from Sunni heartlands, they are hardly the Nazis or Napoleon.
They've lost ground? Have you looked at the map of their positions in the city? |Everyone, FSA groups fighting in the place included, have said IS is gaining more of the town, not less.
There has been precisely no significant Kurdish counter offensive in that town. So little in fact that they lost their main command point in the last 24 hours.
Secondly do you have any idea how urban combat works? The Kurds and FSA could resist for years but this is about effective control & occupation and effective control is established long before the shooting stops. Mop up operations can take weeks but that does not mean things are in doubt.
It is entirely unsuitable for special forces because of one reason above all, scale. You are resupplying an infantry formation of 2000 troops, that requires a fairly conventional logistical tail. Not a couple hundred blokes who everybody assumes are somehow supermen popping in for tea and biscuits once with some stuff off the back of choppers.
Secondly the Kurds and FSA need reinforcement not just kit. Who exactly is going to let them in and where are they coming from? Are we going to helicopter their forces in as well?
The only open option that appears to be workable politically and therefore militarily right now is to flatten the east and centre of the town and go for a mass casualty approach. At the same time, flatten the south west, south and eastern approaches to the town and do not stop until there is literally no firing out of those areas. A total and complete rolling program
Here's the problems even if it was ordered.
To succeed you will need to completely change the current rules of engagement, orders and tactical plan that the US airforce and Navy are working under.
Secondly they don't have the assets in theater to do it and everything else right now.
The alternative use of close air support operations in the urban area requires four types of kit that simply are not available right now:
1. Hercules gunships, 2. A-10s (not due in theater for about a month), 3. Apache or Cobra attack helicopters (no local Forward Operating Base) 4, Trained people to sit, build the picture then guide the stuff in.
That approach also requires a complete change of political will. Not happening.
At the weekend we were told Kobane was going to fall, in the end ISIS were forced back to the edge of the City.
Again it is not that difficult to open up a landing area for Chinooks to ferry in supplies when they are needed As for reinforcements, ideally the Turks should be pressured to allow the vast numbers of Kurds waiting to cross the border to fight to do so if necessary, with expulsion from Nato and sanctions if they refuse
If you took a poll in either the US and UK about flattening Kobane with mass bombing to stop ISIS there would be a big majority in favour, some would even nuke them if they could. The time for handwringing is over, you cannot have human rights issues about warfare with those who have no human rights concerns themselves
At the weekend we were told Kobane was going to fall, in the end ISIS were forced back to the edge of the City.
Again it is not that difficult to open up a landing area for Chinooks to ferry in supplies when they are needed As for reinforcements, ideally the Turks should be pressured to allow the vast numbers of Kurds waiting to cross the border to fight to do so if necessary, with expulsion from Nato and sanctions if they refuse
If you took a poll in either the US and UK about flattening Kobane with mass bombing to stop ISIS there would be a big majority in favour, some would even nuke them if they could. The time for handwringing is over, you cannot have human rights issues about warfare with those who have no human rights concerns themselves
ISIS are forced back to the edge of the city is that what you are saying? Are you 100% that is fact?
The Kurds launched a counterattack before ISIS got reinforcements. Ultimately Kobane is a Kurdish town unlike the mainly Sunni towns ISIS have taken, they will have to conquer it and massacre the entire population to completely subdue it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29556005
The Kurds launched a counterattack before ISIS got reinforcements. Ultimately Kobane is a Kurdish town unlike the mainly Sunni towns ISIS have taken, they will have to conquer it and massacre the entire population to completely subdue it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29556005
Are you saying that IS are currently only on the outskirts of the city? Yes or no?
They have been on the outskirts of the city for a week, but have they taken it, no. ISIS really are not the Wehrmacht undertaking Blitzkrieg, and there are 15 million Kurds in the Middle East, not including Turkey, 20,000 IS
Comments
I had dinner last night with someone who didnt know what UKIP was.He was an intelligent, 40+yo, highly paid IT professional. I generally try not to overestimate how much other people follow politics but that did surprise me .
That "never say never" of course started the speculation from the presenter and the Labour guest but he still stuck on the "I'm currently happy but never say never" line.
I think he's building a negotiating position, or call it blackmailing the whips.
Or is this my biggest musical faux pas on PB since I outed myself as a Right Said Fred fan.
Springsteen wrote the song during the Darkness sessions but never got round to finishing it properly. His engineer Jimmy Iovine talked Springsteen into giving it to Patti Smith who finished it and recorded it, hence the co-writing credit.
Other songs Springsteen gave away include the Pointer Sisters song Fire, and Dave Edmunds brilliant From Small Things Mama, Big Things One Day Come.
If I was ever on Mastermind the Works of Bruce Springsteen would be my specialist subject, sad old git that I am!
I think he has but I'm not a fan either.
Actually as you are a country fan try to get hold of the Springsteen album Nebraska, virtually all of which has been covered by country artists such as Johnny Cash and the Drive By Truckers over the years.
My favorites are Highway Patrolman and Mansion on the Hill, but take the time to check the whole album out, I promise you won't be disappointed.
Not It's not 'Money' is one of the original Motown songs Bern Elliot's was a cover
Barrett Strong was the first sing it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5KU34DrrPI
There are. You can find another version of Money on Youtube by the Kingsmen who were the band who originally did Louie, Louie
It's amazing how many versions there are of some songs. One of my favourites is the Neil Young version of Four Strong Winds, but even The Searchers did their own version.
- "Never say never"
UK Independence Party 18926 45%
Conservative 10202 24%
Labour 7301 17%
Green Party 2032 5%
Liberal Democrat 1233 3%
You can pm me if you want.
The Tories will have to change leader and install someone more down to earth in order to make a deal.
But that is the appealing thing for someone within the Tory party to be supporting UKIP. If you are someone who aspires for the party leadership, the only way to get rid of Cameron is by boosting UKIP so much that either Cameron loses the next election due to them or forcing Cameron to step down for the Tories to remain in power with a UKIP deal.
The only viable FSA routes of self control is from the west.
Edit: And even then they'll have to fight part of the way.
As far as I am aware there will be no accommodations for Tory candidates this time around. UKIP will be providing a full slate of candidates
Lab 41.9% (+1.7)
Con 17.9% (-11.2)
UKIP 17.4% (+15.0)
LD 9.8% (-10.9)
Respect 4.2% (+4.0)
BNP 1.6% (-2.1)
Green 1.5% (+0.7)
I find it amusing to listen to people who want to see a better health service, better pensions etc but propose cuts to the 'Insurance' that is desingnated to pay for them.
I'll go with this, it's 80's, it's upbeat and the lyrics have some relevance to UKIP's rise:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6Agwu_5J14
Flipping over to Fox while typing that, their talking heads are making a similar point but I missed the beginning of the discusion.
EV4EL is not as simple an issue as some claim.
BTW - correction
UKIP now only *0.5%* behind the Tories in the aggregate by-election vote-shares for this parliament!
The closest non-ISIS area outside of Syria is way inside Iraq.
This sounds unfortunately like your early Clacton suggestions that the Tories should have Peter Tachell as their candidate in order to try and get the working class Labour vote.
Goodnight.
I assume from your comment you are not a Fox News viewer?
Tentatively I suggest they won't be quite as dramatic as one might expect (i.e. UKIP won't leap into 1st or 2nd place), but maybe the big parties at 30ish and UKIP near 20? But that could easily be way out. I've got four canvass sessions this weekend - will be interesitng to see what's registered.
If special forces clear a path supported by air strikes, Chinooks could be used to drop supplies
I doubt very much that the Tories will back an English Parliament. Cameron is opposed I believe although he did during his leadership campaign in 2005 declare for an English Parliament but only until Ken Clarke called him a xenophobe.
Want to try to resupply by force? How many special forces do you think are needed to secure and conduct a resupply operation in an area where there is no co-operation from Turkey?
He held a fund raiser at the home of liberal Massachusetts democrat Chester Atkins last month, and won't say who he will caucus with, which only makes sense if it's the dems.
If that's 'a genuine swing candidate' you'll have to go a long way to convince me.
http://www.redstate.com/2014/10/09/greg-orman-empty-democrat-suit/
Also remember that Uncle Sam launched 14 air strikes in 2 days and how pathetic that was? Today it was ONE. This is a joke to give Obama political cover without actually doing much.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2788800/school-jihadis-six-former-pupils-eton-state-schools-linked-terror.html
Its also a completely unsuitable role for special forces to resupply and restock a 2000 or so strong force of Kurdish and FSA fighters. They are better used elsewhere and for other purposes.
Same as the much vaunted airstrikes, cack handed, poorly co-ordinated, poor intelligence, poor volume ,and now IS holds half the city and operates very close to their opponents, rather harder to do.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/failure-upon-failure_810899.html?page=1
The attitude towards ISIS is rather pathetic, they are basically a group of jumped up bandits who happen to be good at gaining publicity for beheadings and chasing away some of the Iraqi army from Sunni heartlands, they are hardly the Nazis or Napoleon.
Her campaign slogan is "We stand with Wendy". Abbott is in a wheelchair.
She now has an ad showing a wheelchair and -
http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/10/wendy-davis-uses-greg-abbotts-wheelchair-against-him-in-new-ad-video/
It is disgraceful
There has been precisely no significant Kurdish counter offensive in that town. So little in fact that they lost their main command point in the last 24 hours.
Secondly do you have any idea how urban combat works? The Kurds and FSA could resist for years but this is about effective control & occupation and effective control is established long before the shooting stops. Mop up operations can take weeks but that does not mean things are in doubt.
It is entirely unsuitable for special forces because of one reason above all, scale. You are resupplying an infantry formation of 2000 troops, that requires a fairly conventional logistical tail. Not a couple hundred blokes who everybody assumes are somehow supermen popping in for tea and biscuits once with some stuff off the back of choppers.
Secondly the Kurds and FSA need reinforcement not just kit. Who exactly is going to let them in and where are they coming from? Are we going to helicopter their forces in as well?
The only open option that appears to be workable politically and therefore militarily right now is to flatten the east and centre of the town and go for a mass casualty approach. At the same time, flatten the south west, south and eastern approaches to the town and do not stop until there is literally no firing out of those areas. A total and complete rolling program
Here's the problems even if it was ordered.
To succeed you will need to completely change the current rules of engagement, orders and tactical plan that the US airforce and Navy are working under.
Secondly they don't have the assets in theater to do it and everything else right now.
The alternative use of close air support operations in the urban area requires four types of kit that simply are not available right now:
1. Hercules gunships, 2. A-10s (not due in theater for about a month), 3. Apache or Cobra attack helicopters (no local Forward Operating Base) 4, Trained people to sit, build the picture then guide the stuff in.
That approach also requires a complete change of political will. Not happening.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29572976
At the weekend we were told Kobane was going to fall, in the end ISIS were forced back to the edge of the City.
Again it is not that difficult to open up a landing area for Chinooks to ferry in supplies when they are needed
As for reinforcements, ideally the Turks should be pressured to allow the vast numbers of Kurds waiting to cross the border to fight to do so if necessary, with expulsion from Nato and sanctions if they refuse
If you took a poll in either the US and UK about flattening Kobane with mass bombing to stop ISIS there would be a big majority in favour, some would even nuke them if they could. The time for handwringing is over, you cannot have human rights issues about warfare with those who have no human rights concerns themselves
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29556005