Your post reflects the Toronto I stayed in and enjoyed earlier this.
You mean the comments in the newspaper article? I'm sure it was very nice, I was not intending to imply otherwise. It sounds much like London, am I right?
Yes, the comments in the article.
I found it vibrant and interesting. And there's plenty of money there. I would liken it though to the larger mid-Western North American cities than anything in Europe.
I preferred it to Montreal, which is showing serious signs of urban decline.
There's a heck of a lot of urban sprawl spreading out from Toronto, which I found very soulless. One area I did find interesting was "Bloordale Village" - used to be rough as anything, but the hipsters have now arrived. Nice old houses and some interesting businesses.
The area round St Lawrence Market is pretty cool too.
Nor is it surprising there isn't much general ill-will towards Chinese migrants - except, as far as I can discern, from groups like street traders who feel they have been displaced economically, rather than spatially.
IS own PR mob are reportedly writing the victory press release at the moment. To give them some credit, like lots of PR types they hype up stuff but if they report progress they mean it and the message out of Raqqa Towers is progress.
There are no less than 3 fronts in the attack on the town so there is some back and forth action hence the reports will vary but over the last few days IS are deeper in than they were at the weekend. Witness an airstrike today in the centre of the town on an IS position. They simply weren't in that location 3 days ago.
Based on where those strikes are, IS are currently having the better of it, at this point potentially decisively.
HYUFD, one other note on the airstrikes. IS has been lobbing artillery into the town for days on end including yesterday, proper kit not just mortars. If airstrikes can't see the base plates in daylight, they are not trying nearly hard enough. I'm still not convinced the 'West' is working this one well enough at all.
"In sum, while there are Turkish citizens in IS ranks, the number of men and women going over from Turkey to join the YPG and the YPJ is increasing. Opposing forces from Turkey are confronting each other beyond the border. When you add the murky relations of Turkish government with various actors of the Syrian crisis, it is not hard to see that this war is increasingly becoming Turkey's war."
Actually its multiple. The 4 main parties here are the Kurds, who have reportedly said no to direct Turkish involvement (rather than what they have asked for which is weapons supply and routes) as its thin end of a wedge, the Turks traditional hostility to the Kurds though they have one eye on the peace talks, the US who have a commitment issue and Iran, who apparently see any Turkish intervention as the thin end of a different wedge regarding their ally in Damascus and have told both Turkey and US so.
I've gone for the under 50% turnout, for the maximum Shadsy will allow me (which isn't much, at least at this time of night).
Consider this:
Newark: Turnout in GE 71.4% Turnout in by-election: 52.8%
Clacton: Turnout in GE: 64.2%
Newark was seen as a competitive race, with both leading parties, and particularly the Conservatives, throwing the kitchen sink at it to get the vote out. In Clacton, is anyone bothering?
11/10 on less than 50% is a snip. IMO.
Ooer
Well you can thank me and my mate for smashing the 5/6 into 4/6 for you!
Yokel The media reports were all in that vein, BBC News report tonight of dead militants displayed in the town centre and captured ISIS weaponary. The Kurds also know the town, ISIS don't, that makes it ideal for Kurdish guerrilla warfare street by street.
I've gone for the under 50% turnout, for the maximum Shadsy will allow me (which isn't much, at least at this time of night).
Consider this:
Newark: Turnout in GE 71.4% Turnout in by-election: 52.8%
Clacton: Turnout in GE: 64.2%
Newark was seen as a competitive race, with both leading parties, and particularly the Conservatives, throwing the kitchen sink at it to get the vote out. In Clacton, is anyone bothering?
11/10 on less than 50% is a snip. IMO.
Under 50% would be my guess, Richard, but it is definitely a guess.
Bobajob No doubt Dukakis still got a few leads, but the Tories have clearly got by far the bigger poll bounce and led in half the post conference polls. Bush Snr also did not have UKIP splitting his vote in 1988
"bigger poll bounce and led in half the post conference" 3% in 4 polls lasting 5 days. Its better than zero though.
A good question though since the ghost of Bush 88 has arisen yet again, would he had won in 1992 if Perot didn't run? And be careful with your answer, I have a silver bullet ready.
"And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead."
You make a fair point but after the last few weeks I've got serious concerns that he's able to raise his game. I think most of us thought he was just keeping his powder dry. Now I'm not at all sure he's got anything there.
It's natural to think that. He made a bad speech, a wasted opportunity, the last two were very good. It happens. The target now is to ride out conference season with any sort of lead and move on.
Shouldn't the target not be to come up with a programme for government not cross your fingers and hope the polls don't turn.
Think we still need to wait a week or two to know what's happening. We're having the second week running of Government party conferences: it's so far not benefited the LibDems, but I think they can expect a little bounce tomorrow at our expense after Clegg's speech. Then there's the by-elections...
Apparently Clegg is going after 'soft' Tories so that wouldn't be the plan. What you say seems more credible though.
Interesting - I'd heard at the UKIP conference that there was one but hadn't been able to find out who it was. I don't know anything about him, except a few previous candidacies that Google turns up. Has anyone come across him?
Now we just need a LibDem candidate and we should have a full set, unless we get a surprise entrant.
Under 50% would be my guess, Richard, but it is definitely a guess.
Turnout is always tricky, especially in by-elections, and I've been burnt before. As a general rule of thumb, subtract 15% from the GE result, but there's a lot of variation - which is why I originally didn't play in this market, as I thought Shadsy had (as usual) chosen his line well at 50%.
I now think this one certainly looks like a lowish turnout. Not competitive, not much GOTV activity, no incentive for tactical voting, Labour nowhere to be seen, no particular incentive for ex-LibDem voters to go to the polls. The only factor possibly boosting turnout would be the high profile of the Carswell defection - but that already seems like ages ago.
Interesting - I'd heard at the UKIP conference that there was one but hadn't been able to find out who it was. I don't know anything about him, except a few previous candidacies that Google turns up. Has anyone come across him?
Now we just need a LibDem candidate and we should have a full set, unless we get a surprise entrant.
Yes, I've been trying to find out who it was for about a month now. Eventually I came up with the idea of tweeting Lee Waters, the UKIP candidate for Gedling, and he replied today, as you can see from this conversation:
Nick: the only person with that name contesting a seat at GE2010 was an independent in Liverpool Wavertree, but I have no idea whether it's the same person:
Yokel The media reports were all in that vein, BBC News report tonight of dead militants displayed in the town centre and captured ISIS weaponary. The Kurds also know the town, ISIS don't, that makes it ideal for Kurdish guerrilla warfare street by street.
Depends HYUFD. Knowing the town is one thing but having the kit and numbers to defend it is another. The YPG have been calling for kit for days with, apparently, not much of a response. IS seems to be able to keep its guys well supplied. Bear in mind to the guys leading the IS assault are very useful in street fighting themselves. They are largely non-Syrian, plenty of veterans and many are Chechen who know all about street fighting.
As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, the Western airstrikes could have flattened the area around the town days ago taking out what has been somewhat important artillery support in the IS advance. What we are left with is again the statement I made the other night that airstrikes may have to be used as a case of 'in order to save the city we had to destroy it'.
There is also no signs seen so far that the IS logistical tail has been decimated which is seriously poor showing. The US has Bones in the region and those things can absolutely shatter resistance both by vapourising it but also the psychological effects.
You mentioned also the airstrikes by night. Some Kurds have complained that thats about the worst tactic going, IS fighters know the strikes get heavier at night so move around and hunker down. The Kurds themselves don't appear to be any better equipped or trained at night fighting than their opponents so the advantage isn't great. What you want is to send the rain down in daytime. They just cant hide and the Kurds can take advantage.
The only possibility is that Kobani becomes a meat grinder and IS attach symbolic importance beyond its territorial status. They may already have done so. Certainly in military terms nearly everyone else has. In humanitarian terms its hard to underestimate it.
Under 50% would be my guess, Richard, but it is definitely a guess.
Turnout is always tricky, especially in by-elections, and I've been burnt before. As a general rule of thumb, subtract 15% from the GE result, but there's a lot of variation - which is why I originally didn't play in this market, as I thought Shadsy had (as usual) chosen his line well at 50%.
I now think this one certainly looks like a lowish turnout. Not competitive, not much GOTV activity, no incentive for tactical voting, Labour nowhere to be seen, no particular incentive for ex-LibDem voters to go to the polls. The only factor possibly boosting turnout would be the high profile of the Carswell defection - but that already seems like ages ago.
I might be wrong, of course!
No, I think you are right, but I've little hard evidence to go on.
There are reports of a high level of interest in Frinton, but that's the better-off and more Tory end of the constituency. Jaywick is predictably more apathetic. In the town centre, it was hard to believe we were just two days away from a by-election that will make the town a centre of political attention nationally, if only briefly. Shadsy reckoned the contrast with Newark could not have been starker.
If you gave me a free bet, I definitely know where I'd put it. Wouldn't risk too much of my own hard-earned though.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
When was the last time an opposition with a 1 point lead, seven months out, won an election?
When was the last time there was a major party to the right of the Tories?
Nor is it surprising there isn't much general ill-will towards Chinese migrants - except, as far as I can discern, from groups like street traders who feel they have been displaced economically, rather than spatially.
Forgotten about Morecambe Bay, then?
The involvement of Chinese groups (gangmasters or otherwise) in shellfishing, sometimes of dubious legality, isn't just an issue up north - vaguely topically for this thread, there's been some hoo-hah down in Essex about it. Local fishermen quite upset, grouching off to the local press.
But that reinforces my point, doesn't it, that there's a distinction between perceptions of group as "spacially" versus "economically" threatening? Ask someone why they feel uncomfortable about Pakistani or Bangladeshi mass migration and stock answer is often something like "they take over bits of our town, the pubs shut, can't hear English spoken, alien/backwards culture, foreign in my own country, feels like a no-go zone". Ask someone why they feel uncomfortable with Polish migration and answer is often more aligned with "taking our jobs, the agencies only take on Poles, child benefits paid back to Poland". (To be fair, neither of these questions seem to need being asked. Opinionated folk tend to shove their opinions down your ears without requiring any asking, or indeed any mention of the topic, first.)
Chinese migrants seem generally to fit into that second group, those whose presence is deemed economically threatening - at least to certain parts of society, though no doubt economically beneficial to other sections. Same kind of tension as the lovable South Asian shopkeeper whose whole family worked stupid hours to tend to our consumer needs, who was also the guy whose "unfair competition" put the kibosh on his incumbent rivals. You're just furnishing another example - from street traders who complain that the Chinese entrepreneurs who've come into the business are flogging counterfeit merchandise and pirate DVDs at prices they can't match, to commercial fishermen agrieved that unlicensed cockle-pickers have turned up on their turf. I've never heard anyone tell me "we had to move out of our neighbourhood because the Chinese started taking over". I've heard that to my face (to my great discomfort) about Pakistanis, about Bangladeshis, about "the blacks", and second-hand I know it at least used to be said about the Jews and the Indians. Quite possibly still is.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
IS own PR mob are reportedly writing the victory press release at the moment. To give them some credit, like lots of PR types they hype up stuff but if they report progress they mean it and the message out of Raqqa Towers is progress.
There are no less than 3 fronts in the attack on the town so there is some back and forth action hence the reports will vary but over the last few days IS are deeper in than they were at the weekend. Witness an airstrike today in the centre of the town on an IS position. They simply weren't in that location 3 days ago.
Based on where those strikes are, IS are currently having the better of it, at this point potentially decisively.
HYUFD, one other note on the airstrikes. IS has been lobbing artillery into the town for days on end including yesterday, proper kit not just mortars. If airstrikes can't see the base plates in daylight, they are not trying nearly hard enough. I'm still not convinced the 'West' is working this one well enough at all.
"In sum, while there are Turkish citizens in IS ranks, the number of men and women going over from Turkey to join the YPG and the YPJ is increasing. Opposing forces from Turkey are confronting each other beyond the border. When you add the murky relations of Turkish government with various actors of the Syrian crisis, it is not hard to see that this war is increasingly becoming Turkey's war."
Actually its multiple. The 4 main parties here are the Kurds, who have reportedly said no to direct Turkish involvement (rather than what they have asked for which is weapons supply and routes) as its thin end of a wedge, the Turks traditional hostility to the Kurds though they have one eye on the peace talks, the US who have a commitment issue and Iran, who apparently see any Turkish intervention as the thin end of a different wedge regarding their ally in Damascus and have told both Turkey and US so.
Its a clusterf**k of fantastic proportions.
The west is in risk of losing the Kurds again. Remember the post Gulf War debacle?
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
Here you are, TP. Your coat.
Off you go.
I did actually learn that Chelsea Clinton is two days younger than me, and thus twice as close to having only had 8 birthdays by now.
Yokel heavier strikes also taking place in the day too, and kit or not you cannot beat knowledge of the area Kurds were born and brought up in, and in street warfare quality of weaponary of less use. The longer it goes on, the more it becomes a meat grinder of ISIS militants, so we cannot complain
Lord Hill has been confirmed by MEPs as the European Union’s next financial services regulator.
The Tory peer comfortably won a vote in the European Parliament’s economic committee, by 42 votes to 16, after a battle with MEPs suspicious of putting a Briton in a post overseeing the City of London
Iran is playing its cards right so far. By being consistent against ISIS and not withering and dithering like the others do, everyone who feels threatened by ISIS will in the end turn to Iran for help.
Speedy Clinton Would still have won, Perot voters were 50-50 Bush Clinton if they had still voted. If a Tea Party candidate runs in 2016 though Hillary can probably spend the summer on a Caribbean cruise!
I was only going to bet a small amount on it, no more than £25.
What sort of odds did you have in mind?
I'm useless at guessing what odds should be in a particular situation. Maybe it would have been something between 3/1 to 5/1 if the Betfair market had been functioning.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Something from the previous header, which wasn't in the thread: did anyone work out what Glasman meant by "fair movement" not "free movement" within the EU? It smells of one of those soundbites with no meaningful possible practical implementation. At least, not one that I can see EU partners agreeing to, bearing in mind Freedom of Movement is one of the fundamental Four Freedoms at the intellectual and economic heart of the internal market.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
Here you are, TP. Your coat.
Off you go.
I did actually learn that Chelsea Clinton is two days younger than me, and thus twice as close to having only had 8 birthdays by now.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
When was the last time an opposition with a 1 point lead, seven months out, won an election?
Thatcher, 1979. A poll in early November 1978 had her 1% up. Strictly speaking 7 months out (Oct 78) the only two polls actually had her behind by an average of 4.9%.
So if EdM wins in 2015, that will be 2 of the past 4 oppositions to win doing so in those circumstances.
"Stacey Dooley investigates the growing drug craze sweeping through Thailand. Ya-ba, a dangerous mix of methamphetamine and caffeine, has gripped the nation and unleashed a terrifying wave of violence among its users. She uncovers the human cost, visiting a shocking ward full of 'zombie' addicts, many of whom face the risk of long-term psychosis, and she also meets users who have started taking the drug as young as 12.
Stacey joins the Thai authorities as they try to fight back, joining patrols near the Burmese border and drug raids on Bangkok bars. In Bangkok, she discovers that dealers are starting to target western tourists and asks if this dangerous drug could soon claim its first victims amongst British tourists."
Speedy Clinton Would still have won, Perot voters were 50-50 Bush Clinton if they had still voted. If a Tea Party candidate runs in 2016 though Hillary can probably spend the summer on a Caribbean cruise!
Hillary will win no mater what in 2016, in 2020 not so. Hillary will lose in 2020 for the same reason's that Bush lost in 1992. The same party in government too long plus economic recession and a president who is too old and out of touch.
If Perot had stayed and didn't withdrew in the summer of 92, he would have been president and the history of the world would be radically different, for the better perhaps because Perot is a very serious man.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
Here you are, TP. Your coat.
Off you go.
I did actually learn that Chelsea Clinton is two days younger than me, and thus twice as close to having only had 8 birthdays by now.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
When was the last time an opposition with a 1 point lead, seven months out, won an election?
Thatcher, 1979. A poll in early November 1978 had her 1% up. Strictly speaking 7 months out (Oct 78) the only two polls actually had her behind by an average of 4.9%.
So if EdM wins in 2015, that will be 2 of the past 4 oppositions to win doing so in those circumstances.
A 50-50 record isn't bad especially since Ed is doing better than Thatcher at the same timeframe.
I was only going to bet a small amount on it, no more than £25.
What sort of odds did you have in mind?
I'm useless at guessing what odds should be in a particular situation. Maybe it would have been something between 3/1 to 5/1 if the Betfair market had been functioning.
Turnout was 64.2% at the GE. You can have a pony at 4/1 with me if you like. Usual address: arklebar@gmail.com
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Local government at its finest.
- at the same time the slow drumbeat is intensifying to rename the Wahington Redskins, as the name is alleged to be an insult and racist.
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
You should see some names of black college and NFL football players - my favorite for years was Antwaan Randle El
I work with an American lady who has bestowed the name "Amyrkle" upon her fortunate offspring.
A lady acquaintance of mine has ten children, all named Wayne. When she needs to address any of them individually, she uses their surname.
I'll get me coat.
I like the Lee Nelson gag - he did a Posh & Becks and named his son after the place of conception - Stairwell.
Do you think the same motif applies to the naming of Chelsea Clinton?
Research suggests a home game versus Arsenal on 14th May 1979 is the only plausible date. Chelsea finished bottom of the league that year, so it's unsurprising that they weren't too interested in the match.
If they'd conceived her at Stamford Bridge she'd be called Fulham Clinton.
Here you are, TP. Your coat.
Off you go.
I did actually learn that Chelsea Clinton is two days younger than me, and thus twice as close to having only had 8 birthdays by now.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
When was the last time an opposition with a 1 point lead, seven months out, won an election?
Thatcher, 1979. A poll in early November 1978 had her 1% up. Strictly speaking 7 months out (Oct 78) the only two polls actually had her behind by an average of 4.9%.
So if EdM wins in 2015, that will be 2 of the past 4 oppositions to win doing so in those circumstances.
A 50-50 record isn't bad especially since Ed is doing better than Thatcher at the same timeframe.
I knew Maggie Thatcher. And I'm telling you that Eddie Miliband isn't a Maggie Thatcher.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Did Seattle exist back then to be discovered? They should call it Denny's Day if that is the criteria to name it. Or Zhenge He Day, or Eric the Red Day.
The Betfair Seats Market for UKIP has been fairly lightly traded since it opened and is only just above 50,000 pounds, but somebody has just slammed into it and layed the None and One To Five options heavily, whilst buying into the Over 5 option, again very heavily.
Presumably they think tomorrow's elections will go well for the purples and wish to be ahead of the rush.
I was only going to bet a small amount on it, no more than £25.
What sort of odds did you have in mind?
I'm useless at guessing what odds should be in a particular situation. Maybe it would have been something between 3/1 to 5/1 if the Betfair market had been functioning.
Turnout was 64.2% at the GE. You can have a pony at 4/1 with me if you like. Usual address: arklebar@gmail.com
The Betfair Seats Market for UKIP has been fairly lightly traded since it opened and is only just above 50,000 pounds, but somebody has just slammed into it and layed the None and One To Five options heavily, whilst buying into the Over 5 option, again very heavily.
Presumably they think tomorrow's elections will go well for the purples and wish to be ahead of the rush.
Or maybe it's just Nigel back from the pub?
The first is the most probable. Most people are not very much into politics or as informed as we are, but once they hear that UKIP have won a seat, some will make a bet of UKIP winning seats in the GE.
That bet is not only on UKIP getting seats, it's also a bet that people are ignorant that there is a by-election that UKIP will win tomorrow.
Yokel heavier strikes also taking place in the day too, and kit or not you cannot beat knowledge of the area Kurds were born and brought up in, and in street warfare quality of weaponary of less use. The longer it goes on, the more it becomes a meat grinder of ISIS militants, so we cannot complain
HYUFD, actually no. Yes knowledge is power but urban warfare is built on tactics, training, experience and lots & lots of firepower. The latter is contrary to popular perception. Again I think I mentioned last night that weight as well asaccurate fire is critical in infantry fighting including in urban fighting. Sniper in a belltower? RPG it, better still lump artillery at it. Got a barrier? Truck bomb. And so it goes on. In firefights you absolutely pour it on.
Take your average Special ops exercise in Northern Ireland as an example. All planned, well positioned ambushes against guys who had no idea what was coming. Did they just snipe them out with a few well placed shots? No f**king chance, you had tens of rounds per kill. Weight of fire. Its a standard tool from your busted 3 times infantry private to your superman special forces type. Just make sure the muzzle is pointing in the right direction.
This is why the Kurds talk about 'advanced weapons'; what they are getting at is infantry support gear, mortars, one man/one shot rocket launchers and machine guns. Force multiplication and weight of fire kit.
Course we can complain. IS were miles from the place a month ago. They seem to be able to supply assaults from the South, West and East of the town , though the big focus seems to be the eastern side. How can you not thump their supply lines, the artillery sites and so on?
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Local government at its finest.
- at the same time the slow drumbeat is intensifying to rename the Wahington Redskins, as the name is alleged to be an insult and racist.
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
It's just a banal bit of tokenism that doesn't actually achieve anything. It's not as if Columbus systematically murdered all of the indigenous population...
The Betfair Seats Market for UKIP has been fairly lightly traded since it opened and is only just above 50,000 pounds, but somebody has just slammed into it and layed the None and One To Five options heavily, whilst buying into the Over 5 option, again very heavily.
Presumably they think tomorrow's elections will go well for the purples and wish to be ahead of the rush.
Or maybe it's just Nigel back from the pub?
Over 5? In all honesty come general election time I'd reckon thats a stretch. Unless they expect a few more defections, by elections and the incumbent factor.
I was only going to bet a small amount on it, no more than £25.
What sort of odds did you have in mind?
I'm useless at guessing what odds should be in a particular situation. Maybe it would have been something between 3/1 to 5/1 if the Betfair market had been functioning.
Turnout was 64.2% at the GE. You can have a pony at 4/1 with me if you like. Usual address: arklebar@gmail.com
Can I have £25 too please?
Yes, but that's it. Board wiped. Two hundred nicker is all I want to risk on this one.
The Betfair Seats Market for UKIP has been fairly lightly traded since it opened and is only just above 50,000 pounds, but somebody has just slammed into it and layed the None and One To Five options heavily, whilst buying into the Over 5 option, again very heavily.
Presumably they think tomorrow's elections will go well for the purples and wish to be ahead of the rush.
Or maybe it's just Nigel back from the pub?
Over 5? In all honesty come general election time I'd reckon thats a stretch. Unless they expect a few more defections, by elections and the incumbent factor.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Did Seattle exist back then to be discovered? They should call it Denny's Day if that is the criteria to name it. Or Zhenge He Day, or Eric the Red Day.
The area was inhabited in 1492 by the aforementioned indigenous people. The guy who made the quote was a local tribal chief.
I was only going to bet a small amount on it, no more than £25.
What sort of odds did you have in mind?
I'm useless at guessing what odds should be in a particular situation. Maybe it would have been something between 3/1 to 5/1 if the Betfair market had been functioning.
Turnout was 64.2% at the GE. You can have a pony at 4/1 with me if you like. Usual address: arklebar@gmail.com
Can I have £25 too please?
Yes, but that's it. Board wiped. Two hundred nicker is all I want to risk on this one.
Is the Euro ward of Tendring the same as the Clacton on Sea Constituency?
Euro ward? I don't know what that is. Do you mean the council area of Tendring? Most of that is in the Clacton constituency but some is in North Essex.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Local government at its finest.
- at the same time the slow drumbeat is intensifying to rename the Wahington Redskins, as the name is alleged to be an insult and racist.
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
It's just a banal bit of tokenism that doesn't actually achieve anything. It's not as if Columbus systematically murdered all of the indigenous population...
He didn't intentionally but European diseases they brought with them did the job for him to some extent.. In fair exchange they give his folks syphilis to take home.
Speedy No, the US is actually forecast to grow at over 3% next year and she has also positioned herself as enough of a change from Obama to be a new face, whereas Bush Snr was a continuation of Reagan Bush. If she is President she will be a Dem Nixon ruthless, probably facing a GOP congress, centrist at home, but hawkish abroad and there is no one on the GOP side to match her. Perot was never going to win in 1992, he was their Clegg in 2010
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Local government at its finest.
- at the same time the slow drumbeat is intensifying to rename the Wahington Redskins, as the name is alleged to be an insult and racist.
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
It's just a banal bit of tokenism that doesn't actually achieve anything. It's not as if Columbus systematically murdered all of the indigenous population...
He didn't intentionally but European diseases they brought with them did the job for him to some extent.. In fair exchange they give his folks syphilis to take home.
Any person from the Old World would have brought diseases with them, it was just a time bomb waiting to go off.
When she is President she will be too busy fighting the Russians, the French, the Chinese, the Iranians, the Brazilians, the Germans, the Indians, the Argentinians, Men, and the GOP to fight ISIS.
Hillary in power will make the entire world behave towards America like Al Bundy with his female neighbor Marcy.
Seattle City Council voted unanimously today to abolish Columbus Day and instead celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day next Monday. One of those at the meeting said "Nobody discovered Seattle".
Local government at its finest.
- at the same time the slow drumbeat is intensifying to rename the Wahington Redskins, as the name is alleged to be an insult and racist.
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
It's just a banal bit of tokenism that doesn't actually achieve anything. It's not as if Columbus systematically murdered all of the indigenous population...
He didn't intentionally but European diseases they brought with them did the job for him to some extent.. In fair exchange they give his folks syphilis to take home.
Any person from the Old World would have brought diseases with them, it was just a time bomb waiting to go off.
Yokel And coalition airstrikes are now targetting and destroying ISIS artillery, trucks etc. I agree we can supply the Kurds with more heavy weaponary, but their guerrillas can easily pick out ISIS militants who get cut off, take a wrong turn etc. Kobane is strategically of little real value to ISIS but it has the potential to draw in more and more of their fighters to be killed off and in the process grind down their numbers quite effectively
Yokel And coalition airstrikes are now targetting and destroying ISIS artillery, trucks etc. I agree we can supply the Kurds with more heavy weaponary, but their guerrillas can easily pick out ISIS militants who get cut off, take a wrong turn etc. Kobane is strategically of little real value to ISIS but it has the potential to draw in more and more of their fighters to be killed off and in the process grind down their numbers quite effectively
Speedy No, the US is actually forecast to grow at over 3% next year and she has also positioned herself as enough of a change from Obama to be a new face, whereas Bush Snr was a continuation of Reagan Bush. If she is President she will be a Dem Nixon ruthless, probably facing a GOP congress, centrist at home, but hawkish abroad and there is no one on the GOP side to match her. Perot was never going to win in 1992, he was their Clegg in 2010
1. I'm talking about 2020 not 2016 economically. 2. People are getting tired of the democrats in the US, by 2020 that will be worse. 3. She is ahead in the polls because she is a woman, that novelty will wear out by 2020. 4. Perot was way ahead in the polls and had the momentum months before the election, in contrast with Clegg.
Speedy No Hillary gets two terms, she is far tougher and more ruthless than Bush Snr, who was himself beaten by a Clinton. Hillary will in turn be succeeded by Jeb's son George P Bush. As for Perot he had a brief moment ahead in the polls like Clegg but the election was always Clinton's, like Cameron's, to lose
Nice article, Peter! And another nice cartoon, Marf!
In other news, after four polls this week, the part-ELBOW stands at
34.0% Lab 32.8% Con 14.8% UKIP 7.8% LD
Lab lead 1.2% (was 2.9% for week-ending 5th October)
Thanks Sunil.
I was much taken with your comments about people giving up seats on trains (numerous threads back.)
A few years ago I broke my ankle and had to struggle around with a cast and a crutch. It was no big deal really but it gave me an insight into the thoughtfulness of various types of passengers. Young Asians were conspicuously the best, especially the females. Young City types were the worst. Young males showed a remarkable ability to snooze throughout their journeys but wake unfailingly at their stop.
The most hilarious trip was when I just made it onto a crowded commuter train from Woking to Waterloo. Every face was suddenly buried in its paper/book/laptop etc all the way to Waterloo. Amazing how nobody managed to look up and notice me standing!
According to this article the Ashcroft poll showed UKIP winning in Heywood & Middleton with male voters by 41% to 38%, although the sample size may be a bit iffy. 21% of female voters supported UKIP:
Fail into get into Kings College to study medicine...where is the next logical choice...I know the Sudan....I guess I could always open a book shop instead.
Fail into get into Kings College to study medicine...where is the next logical choice...I know the Sudan....
I failed to get into Kings College Med School too - but that was way back in 1994.... Via 'Clearing' I ended up doing Biochem at Imperial. The rest, as they say is history!
Nice article, Peter! And another nice cartoon, Marf!
In other news, after four polls this week, the part-ELBOW stands at
34.0% Lab 32.8% Con 14.8% UKIP 7.8% LD
Lab lead 1.2% (was 2.9% for week-ending 5th October)
Thanks Sunil.
I was much taken with your comments about people giving up seats on trains (numerous threads back.)
A few years ago I broke my ankle and had to struggle around with a cast and a crutch. It was no big deal really but it gave me an insight into the thoughtfulness of various types of passengers. Young Asians were conspicuously the best, especially the females. Young City types were the worst. Young males showed a remarkable ability to snooze throughout their journeys but wake unfailingly at their stop.
The most hilarious trip was when I just made it onto a crowded commuter train from Woking to Waterloo. Every face was suddenly buried in its paper/book/laptop etc all the way to Waterloo. Amazing how nobody managed to look up and notice me standing!
Interesting observations Peter. I actually only use the Tube these days at weekends or to get to/from home from the Midlands via London Euston on Monday mornings/Friday evenings.
So I've been dubious for a while with the Goodwin Ford assertion that the UKIP vote is 'thick white poor and old' so tonight I went through the by-election polls by Survation to see what they indicated. There are 13 of them:
Clacton Rochester Heywood Thanet North Thanet South Dudley North Crewe & Nantwich Eastbourne Eastleigh Rotherham Folkestone Great Grimsby Great Yarmouth
Of those 13, 6 of the polls show the UKIP support as being predominantly under 55 and 6 showing UKIP being 55 and over with one equally split.
I then compared it to the Tories who were predominantly under 55 in 6 seats and 55 and over in 7 seats.
If you then compare UKIP and the Tories directly using the over/under 55 criteria in each seat. In 6 seats the Tories turn out to be proportionately younger. In 6 seats UKIP turn out to be proportionately younger and in one seat they are of a similar proportionate age.
So its seems rather questionable whether UKIP are supported particularly by the 'old' and even if they are they do not seem any older than the Tories
The Vote Charlotte GOTV operation will only get going when the sun sets so that the ladies of Frinton don't recognise their elderly husbands and their secret purchases of Paisley pyjamas.Nocturnal manoeuvres,however should sustain victory over the dastardly Libs.Amongst those in the camp,whether currently chained or not,there is a glow of flushed confidence.
Comments
Its a clusterf**k of fantastic proportions.
Well you can thank me and my mate for smashing the 5/6 into 4/6 for you!
3% in 4 polls lasting 5 days. Its better than zero though.
A good question though since the ghost of Bush 88 has arisen yet again, would he had won in 1992 if Perot didn't run?
And be careful with your answer, I have a silver bullet ready.
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Now we just need a LibDem candidate and we should have a full set, unless we get a surprise entrant.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115772921
I think something extraordinary may happen — turnout could actually be up on the general election, and I was hoping to bet on it.
I now think this one certainly looks like a lowish turnout. Not competitive, not much GOTV activity, no incentive for tactical voting, Labour nowhere to be seen, no particular incentive for ex-LibDem voters to go to the polls. The only factor possibly boosting turnout would be the high profile of the Carswell defection - but that already seems like ages ago.
I might be wrong, of course!
twitter.com/LeeWatersUKIP/status/512269075234693121
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c68.stm
As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, the Western airstrikes could have flattened the area around the town days ago taking out what has been somewhat important artillery support in the IS advance. What we are left with is again the statement I made the other night that airstrikes may have to be used as a case of 'in order to save the city we had to destroy it'.
There is also no signs seen so far that the IS logistical tail has been decimated which is seriously poor showing. The US has Bones in the region and those things can absolutely shatter resistance both by vapourising it but also the psychological effects.
You mentioned also the airstrikes by night. Some Kurds have complained that thats about the worst tactic going, IS fighters know the strikes get heavier at night so move around and hunker down. The Kurds themselves don't appear to be any better equipped or trained at night fighting than their opponents so the advantage isn't great. What you want is to send the rain down in daytime. They just cant hide and the Kurds can take advantage.
The only possibility is that Kobani becomes a meat grinder and IS attach symbolic importance beyond its territorial status. They may already have done so. Certainly in military terms nearly everyone else has. In humanitarian terms its hard to underestimate it.
There are reports of a high level of interest in Frinton, but that's the better-off and more Tory end of the constituency. Jaywick is predictably more apathetic. In the town centre, it was hard to believe we were just two days away from a by-election that will make the town a centre of political attention nationally, if only briefly. Shadsy reckoned the contrast with Newark could not have been starker.
If you gave me a free bet, I definitely know where I'd put it. Wouldn't risk too much of my own hard-earned though.
http://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/council/elections-voting/european-elections-22-may-2014
That's good for over 50% isn't it? I think its the same size as the constituency, could be wrong
http://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/council/council-services/resident-information-map
But that reinforces my point, doesn't it, that there's a distinction between perceptions of group as "spacially" versus "economically" threatening? Ask someone why they feel uncomfortable about Pakistani or Bangladeshi mass migration and stock answer is often something like "they take over bits of our town, the pubs shut, can't hear English spoken, alien/backwards culture, foreign in my own country, feels like a no-go zone". Ask someone why they feel uncomfortable with Polish migration and answer is often more aligned with "taking our jobs, the agencies only take on Poles, child benefits paid back to Poland". (To be fair, neither of these questions seem to need being asked. Opinionated folk tend to shove their opinions down your ears without requiring any asking, or indeed any mention of the topic, first.)
Chinese migrants seem generally to fit into that second group, those whose presence is deemed economically threatening - at least to certain parts of society, though no doubt economically beneficial to other sections. Same kind of tension as the lovable South Asian shopkeeper whose whole family worked stupid hours to tend to our consumer needs, who was also the guy whose "unfair competition" put the kibosh on his incumbent rivals. You're just furnishing another example - from street traders who complain that the Chinese entrepreneurs who've come into the business are flogging counterfeit merchandise and pirate DVDs at prices they can't match, to commercial fishermen agrieved that unlicensed cockle-pickers have turned up on their turf. I've never heard anyone tell me "we had to move out of our neighbourhood because the Chinese started taking over". I've heard that to my face (to my great discomfort) about Pakistanis, about Bangladeshis, about "the blacks", and second-hand I know it at least used to be said about the Jews and the Indians. Quite possibly still is.
Labour were on 38% with YouGov on 1 Oct according to UKPR, and 37% (Populus) on Monday.
Anyway I suppose it looks like this:
http://usa2mom.wordpress.com/2013/08/28/the-idiots-guide-to-the-middle-east/
Or this:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html
But with a question mark on Egypt vs Syria,USA and Turkey vs ISIS.
Realise you are trolling as normal, but for the record I am merely going from what many Tories themselves said. Are they also delusional?
Off you go.
The west is in risk of losing the Kurds again. Remember the post Gulf War debacle?
Anyway I suppose it looks like this:
http://usa2mom.wordpress.com/2013/08/28/the-idiots-guide-to-the-middle-east/
Or this:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html
But with a question mark on Egypt vs Syria,USA and Turkey vs ISIS.
Said it the other night, they'll turn to Iran.
Lord Hill has been confirmed by MEPs as the European Union’s next financial services regulator.
The Tory peer comfortably won a vote in the European Parliament’s economic committee, by 42 votes to 16, after a battle with MEPs suspicious of putting a Briton in a post overseeing the City of London
By being consistent against ISIS and not withering and dithering like the others do, everyone who feels threatened by ISIS will in the end turn to Iran for help.
Weather looks alright (mild, with showers in the afternoon);
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2652974
If I was betting, I'd probably go with the under 50% at 11/10. But I'm not really tempted.
So if EdM wins in 2015, that will be 2 of the past 4 oppositions to win doing so in those circumstances.
On now:
"Stacey Dooley investigates the growing drug craze sweeping through Thailand. Ya-ba, a dangerous mix of methamphetamine and caffeine, has gripped the nation and unleashed a terrifying wave of violence among its users. She uncovers the human cost, visiting a shocking ward full of 'zombie' addicts, many of whom face the risk of long-term psychosis, and she also meets users who have started taking the drug as young as 12.
Stacey joins the Thai authorities as they try to fight back, joining patrols near the Burmese border and drug raids on Bangkok bars. In Bangkok, she discovers that dealers are starting to target western tourists and asks if this dangerous drug could soon claim its first victims amongst British tourists."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038rw24
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#2
Hillary will win no mater what in 2016, in 2020 not so.
Hillary will lose in 2020 for the same reason's that Bush lost in 1992. The same party in government too long plus economic recession and a president who is too old and out of touch.
If Perot had stayed and didn't withdrew in the summer of 92, he would have been president and the history of the world would be radically different, for the better perhaps because Perot is a very serious man.
Is the Euro ward of Tendring the same as the Clacton on Sea Constituency?
Oddly enough I have not heard a single voice raised in opposition to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
or the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, or the Toledo Mudhens
Story of my life.
"Whether you call them ISIS or ISIL, I refuse to call them the Islamic State, because they are neither Islamic or a state," Clinton said. "Whatever you call them, I think we can agree that the threat is real."
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2014/10/07/hillary-clinton-embraces-endless-war-doctrine
They should call it Denny's Day if that is the criteria to name it.
Or Zhenge He Day, or Eric the Red Day.
The Betfair Seats Market for UKIP has been fairly lightly traded since it opened and is only just above 50,000 pounds, but somebody has just slammed into it and layed the None and One To Five options heavily, whilst buying into the Over 5 option, again very heavily.
Presumably they think tomorrow's elections will go well for the purples and wish to be ahead of the rush.
Or maybe it's just Nigel back from the pub?
Most people are not very much into politics or as informed as we are, but once they hear that UKIP have won a seat, some will make a bet of UKIP winning seats in the GE.
That bet is not only on UKIP getting seats, it's also a bet that people are ignorant that there is a by-election that UKIP will win tomorrow.
Take your average Special ops exercise in Northern Ireland as an example. All planned, well positioned ambushes against guys who had no idea what was coming. Did they just snipe them out with a few well placed shots? No f**king chance, you had tens of rounds per kill. Weight of fire. Its a standard tool from your busted 3 times infantry private to your superman special forces type. Just make sure the muzzle is pointing in the right direction.
This is why the Kurds talk about 'advanced weapons'; what they are getting at is infantry support gear, mortars, one man/one shot rocket launchers and machine guns. Force multiplication and weight of fire kit.
Course we can complain. IS were miles from the place a month ago. They seem to be able to supply assaults from the South, West and East of the town , though the big focus seems to be the eastern side. How can you not thump their supply lines, the artillery sites and so on?
Over 5? In all honesty come general election time I'd reckon thats a stretch. Unless they expect a few more defections, by elections and the incumbent factor.
But take a raincheck after Rochester.
Thanks mate, may the best etc etc
Hillary in power will make the entire world behave towards America like Al Bundy with his female neighbor Marcy.
I'm not fussed either way, but if you do want it, I'd need an email.
Thanx.
2. People are getting tired of the democrats in the US, by 2020 that will be worse.
3. She is ahead in the polls because she is a woman, that novelty will wear out by 2020.
4. Perot was way ahead in the polls and had the momentum months before the election, in contrast with Clegg.
I predict this is how America and the World will treat Hillary by 2020 (goodnight):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGddFxUXiKg
In other news, after four polls this week, the part-ELBOW stands at
34.0% Lab
32.8% Con
14.8% UKIP
7.8% LD
Lab lead 1.2% (was 2.9% for week-ending 5th October)
I was much taken with your comments about people giving up seats on trains (numerous threads back.)
A few years ago I broke my ankle and had to struggle around with a cast and a crutch. It was no big deal really but it gave me an insight into the thoughtfulness of various types of passengers. Young Asians were conspicuously the best, especially the females. Young City types were the worst. Young males showed a remarkable ability to snooze throughout their journeys but wake unfailingly at their stop.
The most hilarious trip was when I just made it onto a crowded commuter train from Woking to Waterloo. Every face was suddenly buried in its paper/book/laptop etc all the way to Waterloo. Amazing how nobody managed to look up and notice me standing!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11147654/Nigel-Farage-Ukips-blokeish-image-has-put-off-women.html
I failed to get into Kings College Med School too - but that was way back in 1994.... Via 'Clearing' I ended up doing Biochem at Imperial. The rest, as they say is history!
Clacton
Rochester
Heywood
Thanet North
Thanet South
Dudley North
Crewe & Nantwich
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Rotherham
Folkestone
Great Grimsby
Great Yarmouth
Of those 13, 6 of the polls show the UKIP support as being predominantly under 55 and 6 showing UKIP being 55 and over with one equally split.
I then compared it to the Tories who were predominantly under 55 in 6 seats and 55 and over in 7 seats.
If you then compare UKIP and the Tories directly using the over/under 55 criteria in each seat. In 6 seats the Tories turn out to be proportionately younger. In 6 seats UKIP turn out to be proportionately younger and in one seat they are of a similar proportionate age.
So its seems rather questionable whether UKIP are supported particularly by the 'old' and even if they are they do not seem any older than the Tories