It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
At least you remember who the Tory candidate in Clacton is.
Your post reflects the Toronto I stayed in and enjoyed earlier this.
You mean the comments in the newspaper article? I'm sure it was very nice, I was not intending to imply otherwise. It sounds much like London, am I right?
Yes, the comments in the article.
I found it vibrant and interesting. And there's plenty of money there. I would liken it though to the larger mid-Western North American cities than anything in Europe.
I preferred it to Montreal, which is showing serious signs of urban decline.
There's a heck of a lot of urban sprawl spreading out from Toronto, which I found very soulless. One area I did find interesting was "Bloordale Village" - used to be rough as anything, but the hipsters have now arrived. Nice old houses and some interesting businesses.
35 years ago I lived in Markham, ON which was a very nice area then. Presumably it still is.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
I was in Frinton the other day, and the people I spoke to seemed pretty engaged in the election.. though that might just be because I was... and because it is more marginal there maybe
Anyway I backed OVER 50% turnout at 5/6.. Paddy Power opened up 4/5 and it was backed into 4/9 before they pulled it, I was surprised Ladbrokes went 5/6 knowing that.
Your post reflects the Toronto I stayed in and enjoyed earlier this.
You mean the comments in the newspaper article? I'm sure it was very nice, I was not intending to imply otherwise. It sounds much like London, am I right?
Yes, the comments in the article.
I found it vibrant and interesting. And there's plenty of money there. I would liken it though to the larger mid-Western North American cities than anything in Europe.
I preferred it to Montreal, which is showing serious signs of urban decline.
There's a heck of a lot of urban sprawl spreading out from Toronto, which I found very soulless. One area I did find interesting was "Bloordale Village" - used to be rough as anything, but the hipsters have now arrived. Nice old houses and some interesting businesses.
35 years ago I lived in Markham, ON which was a very nice area then. Presumably it still is.
Not far from where I spent a couple of nights. Yes - a decent area.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
Actually you raise a point. One that I asked about in relation to the Scottish referendum but never got a fix on, and that was motivation. Notably in the strongest percentage areas for a Yes vote turnout was often at its lowest.
Ok so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
I was in Frinton the other day, and the people I spoke to seemed pretty engaged in the election.. though that might just be because I was... and because it is more marginal there maybe
Anyway I backed OVER 50% turnout at 5/6.. Paddy Power opened up 4/5 and it was backed into 4/9 before they pulled it, I was surprised Ladbrokes went 5/6 knowing that.
We shall see....
The town was politically apathetic, Sam. Honestly, I didn't play it up for effect in the thread piece.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
Just watched Prof David Reynolds programme on the Long Shadow of the first world war. Sobering reminder of the devastating consequences of nationalism. It had so many echoes for Ireland, Scotland and other countries in Europe - and a reminder of the heroic achievements of the like of Robert Schumann.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
Erm, the ghettos of the Chinese community are the most visible and famous of all.
Visible and famous, but not large. An interesting feature of the British Chinese population is how diffuse it is, rather than being concentrated in just a handful of cities (I can't provide a strong citation, but Wikipedia at least agrees with me). When I lived in the Norfolk Boondocks, it was surprising just how many Chinese people would congregate for the New Year celebrations. There was no particular community centre, so not a "spacial" community in the same way a stereotypical "ghetto" community would be. Instead, lots of individuals just came together from various little towns and villages. But they had very strong community and social ties, without living in the same place.
On the flip side, there are vast chunks of, say, East London which initially seem starkly homogeneous to an outside observer. I think the (deliberately?) unhelpful term "ghetto" is usually intended, in a British context, to demark such places. But on closer inspection, it's rarely a single coherent "community" in the way the authentic Jewish ghetto was - particularly not one all gathered together under a single Community Leader, beloved of TV news. Superficial similarities of skin colour and dress can conceal the intermingling of diverse cultures. Different "home countries", different regions/languages, different religious affiliations, all with different social and support networks. As well as and different TV stations, cuisines, film and musical icons, attitudes to alcohol, sports teams - the whole gamut.
I think it's the impression of the "homogeneous ghetto", as well as an unsettling sense of being "foreign within one's own country", that drives a lot of the queasiness many people feel about large-scale immigration. Rarely inhabitants of diverse cities themselves, but there are plenty of folk from outside London who come away with the "not our country anymore" impression that UKIP feed off. As an exception to my generalisation, I know a few from the Newham/Barking/Havering axis who have had the impression of being "pushed out" to the east. On anecdotal grounds it's not surprising that the BNP's last serious stand in the southeast was at Barking, nor that UKIP feel they are making headway in Havering and Thurrock. Nor is it surprising there isn't much general ill-will towards Chinese migrants - except, as far as I can discern, from groups like street traders who feel they have been displaced economically, rather than spatially.
Your post reflects the Toronto I stayed in and enjoyed earlier this.
You mean the comments in the newspaper article? I'm sure it was very nice, I was not intending to imply otherwise. It sounds much like London, am I right?
Yes, the comments in the article.
I found it vibrant and interesting. And there's plenty of money there. I would liken it though to the larger mid-Western North American cities than anything in Europe.
I preferred it to Montreal, which is showing serious signs of urban decline.
There's a heck of a lot of urban sprawl spreading out from Toronto, which I found very soulless. One area I did find interesting was "Bloordale Village" - used to be rough as anything, but the hipsters have now arrived. Nice old houses and some interesting businesses.
Sounds like Jericho... in Oxford. But urban sprawl is nothing new. Lets face it many Stevenson Screens have been taken over by urban sprawl so no wonder some of us wonder about the validity of the land surface temperature records.
Yokel What understanding? As far as I can see Kurdish guerrillas are picking off ISIS fighters in the streets in the day, coalition air strikes hitting them at night
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
Labour took a hit at their conference and the Tory conference. They haven't had any opportunity to do anything as yet as it's still conference season. The convention is you stay silent when another party is in conference.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
Actually you raise a point. One that I asked about in relation to the Scottish referendum but never got a fix on, and that was motivation. Notably in the strongest percentage areas for a Yes vote turnout was often at its lowest.
Ok so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
That would be a curious situation.
The equation is complex though, Yokel.
What I took away from Clacton (apart from a slight tummy upset) was the feeling that UKIP will prosper where there is disenchantment among conservative voters. Where there is disenchantment among Labour voters, turnout will be down.
Now if you can factor that into your constituency betting, you may be on to something.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
The Tories are in their normal range. The Labour score is down, not without reason given their awful conference season. Yet they have not yet had any chance to make amends, due to going first, they have to wait a fortnight.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
Labour took a hit at their conference and the Tory conference. They haven't had any opportunity to do anything as yet as it's still conference season. The convention is you stay silent when another party is in conference.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
They have had 4 years and 3 conferences to come up with a coherent plan - what is so special about next week ? NHS focus week ? Shed tax ? NHS shed tax ? Tax on sheds for the NHS ?
Tube drivers striking though - that should cheer Labour up.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
Not really, the Tories are on the same level as they where 2-3 weeks ago, its Labour that has dropped again.
I see the Speaker has been undermined again, this time by his 'enforcer' who has now had to resign for anti tory 'partisan comments' - at the LD conference. I would have thought simlpy appearing as a supporter at an LD conference would disbar her.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
Labour took a hit at their conference and the Tory conference. They haven't had any opportunity to do anything as yet as it's still conference season. The convention is you stay silent when another party is in conference.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
They have had 4 years and 3 conferences to come up with a coherent plan - what is so special about next week ? NHS focus week ? Shed tax ? NHS shed tax ? Tax on sheds for the NHS ?
Tube drivers striking though - that should cheer Labour up.
My point is simply that they have had no chance to respond to a poor conference week. A simple procedural point really, no need for crap shed jokes.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
Actually you raise a point. One that I asked about in relation to the Scottish referendum but never got a fix on, and that was motivation. Notably in the strongest percentage areas for a Yes vote turnout was often at its lowest.
Ok so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
That would be a curious situation.
What I took away from Clacton (apart from a slight tummy upset) was the feeling that UKIP will prosper where there is disenchantment among conservative voters. Where there is disenchantment among Labour voters, turnout will be down.
The Ashcroft poll has UKIP getting 45% of 2010-Labour voters in Clacton.
I was in Frinton the other day, and the people I spoke to seemed pretty engaged in the election.. though that might just be because I was... and because it is more marginal there maybe
Anyway I backed OVER 50% turnout at 5/6.. Paddy Power opened up 4/5 and it was backed into 4/9 before they pulled it, I was surprised Ladbrokes went 5/6 knowing that.
We shall see....
The town was politically apathetic, Sam. Honestly, I didn't play it up for effect in the thread piece.
4/6 now.. that might just be weight of money though... another punter I know thought the line should be 64%, and he was backing overs too, so must just be movement on trade from the Ladbrokes people
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
Not really, the Tories are on the same level as they where 2-3 weeks ago, its Labour that has dropped again.
Indeed. You read some bizarre stuff on here at times.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
From what I've picked up on PB, Friday morning's news will be leading with "UKIP come a respectable second to Labour" then, after a story about Bake Off, "Oh, and they've also won their first seat".
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
Labour took a hit at their conference and the Tory conference. They haven't had any opportunity to do anything as yet as it's still conference season. The convention is you stay silent when another party is in conference.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
I can't see anything they can do unless they make different political choices. They have currently made a choice to not take a strong stance on anything out of fear of upsetting people. The thing is that because they've chickened out of opposing the Tories on the core economic argument, and have also abandoned the "responsible capitalism" thing out of idiotic fears of being seen as "anti-business", they have literally nothing interesting/distinctive to say. It won't matter how hard they work or how many interviews they give if the content of what they're saying is a big load of vacuous waffle as it has been lately.
MikeL And Labour remain on Kinnock's total in 1992
And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead.
Hmm.
You must be pleased with the way things are going. In opposition following the worst recession in living memory and you have sky rocketed to a 1% lead in the polls. Ed has truly galvanised his party and country.
Assuming it was you, rather than some vanilla magic.
Thank you for rescuing my disappearing post. Presumably y0kel was having the same problem when he resorted to "test" posting. Any advice on what is setting off the filters today?
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
From what I've picked up on PB, Friday morning's news will be leading with "UKIP come a respectable second to Labour" then, after a story about Bake Off, "Oh, and they've also won their first seat".
Its not a big price Friday morning's headline on here will be "UKIP a disappointing 2nd in Heywood & Middleton"
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
The Tories are in their normal range. The Labour score is down, not without reason given their awful conference season. Yet they have not yet had any chance to make amends, due to going first, they have to wait a fortnight.
Labour are now fairly consistently below that magical 35 figure, tho, aren't they?
I find it hard to see a Labour overall majority if they can't hit 35. And with seven months to go, and the worst leader of any party in 40 years, and no credible manifesto, and an improving economy, and howlingly horrible polling on Labour economic competence, it's not lot looking great for your team.
If it weren't for the bias in FPTP I'd call this for the Tories right now.
As it is I think Miliband might sneak a tiny overall majority, more likely a plurality of seats.
It will be a miserable government, able to do nothing it wants, and forced to do everything it hates.
Would you say Miliband is worse than Brown? Horrifyingly, I'm personally starting to think the answer is yes.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
Not really, the Tories are on the same level as they where 2-3 weeks ago, its Labour that has dropped again.
My post was referring to the lead. Ultimately it is the lead that matters as that will decide Lab and Con seat numbers (unless UKIP rises massively to say 25%+).
I'm trying to find where those missing Labour votes have gone. I'm comparing the tables of 3 yougov polls and I haven't been able to find which party they've gone too. I suspect its people who didn't vote last time, since the 2010 voters don't account for the whole electorate.
From what I've picked up on PB, Friday morning's news will be leading with "UKIP come a respectable second to Labour" then, after a story about Bake Off, "Oh, and they've also won their first seat".
Its not a big price Friday morning's headline on here will be "UKIP a disappointing 2nd in Heywood & Middleton"
Be interesting to see how good a 2nd UKIP can get. Mr Goodman says their local election results promise better than the reported polls.
I love some American names that we hardly see over here. Thought I'd die laughing if someone over here told me their name was Butch or Duke - maybe Earl would get a pass.
MikeL And Labour remain on Kinnock's total in 1992
And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead.
Hmm.
You must be pleased with the way things are going. In opposition following the worst recession in living memory and you have sky rocketed to a 1% lead in the polls. Ed has truly galvanised his party and country.
I doubt I'll win any political analysis awards for saying Labour would rather be 10 points ahead. Nor will I win many for saying many Tories had hoped and expected to have established a decisive lead by now, and haven't. Shit at both ends at the moment ain't it?
It all seemed so different this morning. Suddenly the solution was obvious. Clegg would resign and the Libs would have a new start just a few months before the election. They'd pick up in the polls.....distance themselves from the Tories and they'd blame their last four years on Clegg........
....he could even stay on as DPM so he'd have a nice car to take his kids to school.......Win win all round. But what did the bastard go and do....
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
The Tories are in their normal range. The Labour score is down, not without reason given their awful conference season. Yet they have not yet had any chance to make amends, due to going first, they have to wait a fortnight.
Labour are now fairly consistently below that magical 35 figure, tho, aren't they?
I find it hard to see a Labour overall majority if they can't hit 35. And with seven months to go, and the worst leader of any party in 40 years, and no credible manifesto, and an improving economy, and howlingly horrible polling on Labour economic competence, it's not lot looking great for your team.
If it weren't for the bias in FPTP I'd call this for the Tories right now.
As it is I think Miliband might sneak a tiny overall majority, more likely a plurality of seats.
It will be a miserable government, able to do nothing it wants, and forced to do everything it hates.
Even worse would be an SNP-Labour coalition at the national level with no majority in England.
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
When was the last time an opposition with a 1 point lead, seven months out, won an election?
God, these types of polls are the worst for Labour. Not good enough to be truly confident, not disastrous enough to make them realise something has to change. They'll remain stuck in limbo.
Labour took a hit at their conference and the Tory conference. They haven't had any opportunity to do anything as yet as it's still conference season. The convention is you stay silent when another party is in conference.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
I can't see anything they can do unless they make different political choices. They have currently made a choice to not take a strong stance on anything out of fear of upsetting people. The thing is that because they've chickened out of opposing the Tories on the core economic argument, and have also abandoned the "responsible capitalism" thing out of idiotic fears of being seen as "anti-business", they have literally nothing interesting/distinctive to say. It won't matter how hard they work or how many interviews they give if the content of what they're saying is a big load of vacuous waffle as it has been lately.
Agree entirely. They were very lucky that the Tories also chose the road of vacuous waffle with their bizarre deficit amnesia and the risible "paying down the debt" lie followed by tax cuts on the never never. Not that makes Labour's silence any more palatable.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I remember it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
Actually you raise a point. One that I asked about in relation to the Scottish referendum but never got a fix on, and that was motivation. Notably in the strongest percentage areas for a Yes vote turnout was often at its lowest.
Ok so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
That would be a curious situation.
The equation is complex though, Yokel.
What I took away from Clacton (apart from a slight tummy upset) was the feeling that UKIP will prosper where there is disenchantment among conservative voters. Where there is disenchantment among Labour voters, turnout will be down.
Now if you can factor that into your constituency betting, you may be on to something.
To make it simple, in safe Labour seats turnout will be down, so it increases the probability that Labour have a majority or most seats without having most votes.
I was in Frinton the other day, and the people I spoke to seemed pretty engaged in the election.. though that might just be because I was... and because it is more marginal there maybe
Anyway I backed OVER 50% turnout at 5/6.. Paddy Power opened up 4/5 and it was backed into 4/9 before they pulled it, I was surprised Ladbrokes went 5/6 knowing that.
We shall see....
The town was politically apathetic, Sam. Honestly, I didn't play it up for effect in the thread piece.
4/6 now.. that might just be weight of money though... another punter I know thought the line should be 64%, and he was backing overs too, so must just be movement on trade from the Ladbrokes people
If I had a clue, I would say. I reversed out my original position for a small loss because I had absolutely no feel for how it would go.
MikeL And Labour remain on Kinnock's total in 1992
And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead.
Hmm.
You must be pleased with the way things are going. In opposition following the worst recession in living memory and you have sky rocketed to a 1% lead in the polls. Ed has truly galvanised his party and country.
I doubt I'll win any political analysis awards for saying Labour would rather be 10 points ahead. Nor will I win many for saying many Tories had hoped and expected to have established a decisive lead by now, and haven't. Shit at both ends at the moment ain't it?
If you honestly believed that the Tories expected the polls to be this close at this stage you are delusional. The Tories are delighted. With Ed about to be exposed in the run-up to the election they are likely to be even more delighted.
From what I've picked up on PB, Friday morning's news will be leading with "UKIP come a respectable second to Labour" then, after a story about Bake Off, "Oh, and they've also won their first seat".
Its not a big price Friday morning's headline on here will be "UKIP a disappointing 2nd in Heywood & Middleton"
Be interesting to see how good a 2nd UKIP can get. Mr Goodman says their local election results promise better than the reported polls.
I said from the beginning Heywood will be a LAB 50, UKIP 30 seat type, one that we will see in many safe labour seats in the next election.
Well indeed. And we have seen that your original gambit that Tory leads would be permanent in the "read my lips no new taxes" vein proved wrong. So we shall indeed see!
I'm trying to find where those missing Labour votes have gone. I'm comparing the tables of 3 yougov polls and I haven't been able to find which party they've gone too. I suspect its people who didn't vote last time, since the 2010 voters don't account for the whole electorate.
IS own PR mob are reportedly writing the victory press release at the moment. To give them some credit, like lots of PR types they hype up stuff but if they report progress they mean it and the message out of Raqqa Towers is progress.
There are no less than 3 fronts in the attack on the town so there is some back and forth action hence the reports will vary but over the last few days IS are deeper in than they were at the weekend. Witness an airstrike today in the centre of the town on an IS position. They simply weren't in that location 3 days ago.
Based on where those strikes are, IS are currently having the better of it, at this point potentially decisively.
HYUFD, one other note on the airstrikes. IS has been lobbing artillery into the town for days on end including yesterday, proper kit not just mortars. If airstrikes can't see the base plates in daylight, they are not trying nearly hard enough. I'm still not convinced the 'West' is working this one well enough at all.
Well indeed. And we have seen that your original gambit that Tory leads would be permanent in the "read my lips no new taxes" vein proved wrong. So we shall indeed see!
I'm trying to find where those missing Labour votes have gone. I'm comparing the tables of 3 yougov polls and I haven't been able to find which party they've gone too. I suspect its people who didn't vote last time, since the 2010 voters don't account for the whole electorate.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
The Tories are in their normal range. The Labour score is down, not without reason given their awful conference season. Yet they have not yet had any chance to make amends, due to going first, they have to wait a fortnight.
Labour are now fairly consistently below that magical 35 figure, tho, aren't they?
I find it hard to see a Labour overall majority if they can't hit 35. And with seven months to go, and the worst leader of any party in 40 years, and no credible manifesto, and an improving economy, and howlingly horrible polling on Labour economic competence, it's not lot looking great for your team.
If it weren't for the bias in FPTP I'd call this for the Tories right now.
As it is I think Miliband might sneak a tiny overall majority, more likely a plurality of seats.
It will be a miserable government, able to do nothing it wants, and forced to do everything it hates.
1974-9 is the obvious analogy with the addition of a leader with Francois Hollande personal ratings.
Arguably the most encouraging YouGov of the week for Con.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
The Tories are in their normal range. The Labour score is down, not without reason given their awful conference season. Yet they have not yet had any chance to make amends, due to going first, they have to wait a fortnight.
Labour are now fairly consistently below that magical 35 figure, tho, aren't they?
I find it hard to see a Labour overall majority if they can't hit 35. And with seven months to go, and the worst leader of any party in 40 years, and no credible manifesto, and an improving economy, and howlingly horrible polling on Labour economic competence, it's not lot looking great for your team.
If it weren't for the bias in FPTP I'd call this for the Tories right now.
As it is I think Miliband might sneak a tiny overall majority, more likely a plurality of seats.
It will be a miserable government, able to do nothing it wants, and forced to do everything it hates.
A classic Sean post in that there is a thriller-like twist halfway through. You stack up the circumstantial evidence for one outcome before revealing another.
"And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead."
You make a fair point but after the last few weeks I've got serious concerns that he's able to raise his game. I think most of us thought he was just keeping his powder dry. Now I'm not at all sure he's got anything there.
It all seemed so different this morning. Suddenly the solution was obvious. Clegg would resign and the Libs would have a new start just a few months before the election. They'd pick up in the polls.....distance themselves from the Tories and they'd blame their last four years on Clegg........
....he could even stay on as DPM so he'd have a nice car to take his kids to school.......Win win all round. But what did the bastard go and do....
I thought he'd go which would have been a hammer blow for Labour. But he is staying - now what was it TSE once said about Ed being a lucky general?
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Not yesterday, Scrap, but I reer it fondly from my childhood - and in exactly the way you describe.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Yup if Frinton is UKIP, then the other areas will be much more so - although how many usual non-voters will vote this time for DC but may not bother as the novelty has gone in May 2015 combined with a free 'moan' at Westminster this time knowing there's only months until it all happens again means Watling must have another go then - I've been very impressed by him.
You prompt an observation I made from listening to voters from Frinton and Jaywick.
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
Actually you raise a point. One that I asked about in relation to the Scottish referendum but never got a fix on, and that was motivation. Notably in the strongest percentage areas for a Yes vote turnout was often at its lowest.
Ok so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
That would be a curious situation.
The equation is complex though, Yokel.
What I took away from Clacton (apart from a slight tummy upset) was the feeling that UKIP will prosper where there is disenchantment among conservative voters. Where there is disenchantment among Labour voters, turnout will be down.
Now if you can factor that into your constituency betting, you may be on to something.
To make it simple, in safe Labour seats turnout will be down, so it increases the probability that Labour have a majority or most seats without having most votes.
That's certainly logical, Speedy, although at the moment I wouldn't stake much on any outcome.
It all seemed so different this morning. Suddenly the solution was obvious. Clegg would resign and the Libs would have a new start just a few months before the election. They'd pick up in the polls.....distance themselves from the Tories and they'd blame their last four years on Clegg........
....he could even stay on as DPM so he'd have a nice car to take his kids to school.......Win win all round. But what did the bastard go and do....
Yokel We were told on Sunday it was about to fall, if anything it seems to have gone the other way with many ISIS fighters who do manage to make it into the town getting picked off by Kurdish snipers, airstrikes are also getting heavier than they were.
Yokel We were told on Sunday it was about to fall, if anything it seems to have gone the other way with many ISIS fighters who do manage to make it into the town getting picked off by Kurdish snipers, airstrikes are also getting heavier than they were.
It all seemed so different this morning. Suddenly the solution was obvious. Clegg would resign and the Libs would have a new start just a few months before the election. They'd pick up in the polls.....distance themselves from the Tories and they'd blame their last four years on Clegg........
....he could even stay on as DPM so he'd have a nice car to take his kids to school.......Win win all round. But what did the bastard go and do....
Alright Rog.. Have you had to have a lie down after finding out your idea for War veterans treatment was already UKIP policy?
I've gone for the under 50% turnout, for the maximum Shadsy will allow me (which isn't much, at least at this time of night).
Consider this:
Newark: Turnout in GE 71.4% Turnout in by-election: 52.8%
Clacton: Turnout in GE: 64.2%
Newark was seen as a competitive race, with both leading parties, and particularly the Conservatives, throwing the kitchen sink at it to get the vote out. In Clacton, is anyone bothering?
IS own PR mob are reportedly writing the victory press release at the moment. To give them some credit, like lots of PR types they hype up stuff but if they report progress they mean it and the message out of Raqqa Towers is progress.
There are no less than 3 fronts in the attack on the town so there is some back and forth action hence the reports will vary but over the last few days IS are deeper in than they were at the weekend. Witness an airstrike today in the centre of the town on an IS position. They simply weren't in that location 3 days ago.
Based on where those strikes are, IS are currently having the better of it, at this point potentially decisively.
HYUFD, one other note on the airstrikes. IS has been lobbing artillery into the town for days on end including yesterday, proper kit not just mortars. If airstrikes can't see the base plates in daylight, they are not trying nearly hard enough. I'm still not convinced the 'West' is working this one well enough at all.
"In sum, while there are Turkish citizens in IS ranks, the number of men and women going over from Turkey to join the YPG and the YPJ is increasing. Opposing forces from Turkey are confronting each other beyond the border. When you add the murky relations of Turkish government with various actors of the Syrian crisis, it is not hard to see that this war is increasingly becoming Turkey's war."
"And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead."
You make a fair point but after the last few weeks I've got serious concerns that he's able to raise his game. I think most of us thought he was just keeping his powder dry. Now I'm not at all sure he's got anything there.
It's natural to think that. He made a bad speech, a wasted opportunity, the last two were very good. It happens. The target now is to ride out conference season with any sort of lead and move on.
Think we still need to wait a week or two to know what's happening. We're having the second week running of Government party conferences: it's so far not benefited the LibDems, but I think they can expect a little bounce tomorrow at our expense after Clegg's speech. Then there's the by-elections...
Bobajob No doubt Dukakis still got a few leads, but the Tories have clearly got by far the bigger poll bounce and led in half the post conference polls. Bush Snr also did not have UKIP splitting his vote in 1988
Comments
The understanding is that Kobani is pretty much done. BBC news reports look to be out of date.
(c) TSE
Disenchanted Tories (from Frinton) are inclined to vote UKIP. Disenchanted Labour voters (Jaywick) are inclined not to vote.
If this dynamic operates countrywide, it has far reaching implications for the General Election - and of course our betting!
The couple on the bench look familiar too.
LAB - 34% (=)
CON - 33% (+1)
UKIP - 14% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
Anyway I backed OVER 50% turnout at 5/6.. Paddy Power opened up 4/5 and it was backed into 4/9 before they pulled it, I was surprised Ladbrokes went 5/6 knowing that.
We shall see....
2010 Lib Dem firewallOk so split across the fraction of marginals that really make decisions motivation of each bloc is critical but take it wider across the 600 odd constituencies. This motivation variable could lead to the occasionally talked about idea of one party getting the most votes but another getting the most seats.
That would be a curious situation.
On the face of it the polls showing them ahead were better for them. But it is obvious that the bounce would fade to some degree - to be just 1% behind a full 7 days after Cameron's speech implies some significant improvement in their position which is now showing signs of being sustained.
On the flip side, there are vast chunks of, say, East London which initially seem starkly homogeneous to an outside observer. I think the (deliberately?) unhelpful term "ghetto" is usually intended, in a British context, to demark such places. But on closer inspection, it's rarely a single coherent "community" in the way the authentic Jewish ghetto was - particularly not one all gathered together under a single Community Leader, beloved of TV news. Superficial similarities of skin colour and dress can conceal the intermingling of diverse cultures. Different "home countries", different regions/languages, different religious affiliations, all with different social and support networks. As well as and different TV stations, cuisines, film and musical icons, attitudes to alcohol, sports teams - the whole gamut.
I think it's the impression of the "homogeneous ghetto", as well as an unsettling sense of being "foreign within one's own country", that drives a lot of the queasiness many people feel about large-scale immigration. Rarely inhabitants of diverse cities themselves, but there are plenty of folk from outside London who come away with the "not our country anymore" impression that UKIP feed off. As an exception to my generalisation, I know a few from the Newham/Barking/Havering axis who have had the impression of being "pushed out" to the east. On anecdotal grounds it's not surprising that the BNP's last serious stand in the southeast was at Barking, nor that UKIP feel they are making headway in Havering and Thurrock. Nor is it surprising there isn't much general ill-will towards Chinese migrants - except, as far as I can discern, from groups like street traders who feel they have been displaced economically, rather than spatially.
But urban sprawl is nothing new. Lets face it many Stevenson Screens have been taken over by urban sprawl so no wonder some of us wonder about the validity of the land surface temperature records.
We need to see how they respond next week onwards.
What I took away from Clacton (apart from a slight tummy upset) was the feeling that UKIP will prosper where there is disenchantment among conservative voters. Where there is disenchantment among Labour voters, turnout will be down.
Now if you can factor that into your constituency betting, you may be on to something.
Tube drivers striking though - that should cheer Labour up.
I would have thought simlpy appearing as a supporter at an LD conference would disbar her.
table 3
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
Hmm.
I'll get me coat.
*nips off to get some more*
Assuming it was you, rather than some vanilla magic.
Thank you for rescuing my disappearing post. Presumably y0kel was having the same problem when he resorted to "test" posting. Any advice on what is setting off the filters today?
I'm comparing the tables of 3 yougov polls and I haven't been able to find which party they've gone too. I suspect its people who didn't vote last time, since the 2010 voters don't account for the whole electorate.
For 90%+ of the time no politician is setting the agenda.
And nor is the public taking any notice of what any of them say.
So "bouncing back" is not something which is easily done.
Nor will I win many for saying many Tories had hoped and expected to have established a decisive lead by now, and haven't. Shit at both ends at the moment ain't it?
It all seemed so different this morning. Suddenly the solution was obvious. Clegg would resign and the Libs would have a new start just a few months before the election. They'd pick up in the polls.....distance themselves from the Tories and they'd blame their last four years on Clegg........
....he could even stay on as DPM so he'd have a nice car to take his kids to school.......Win win all round. But what did the bastard go and do....
https://m.facebook.com/ukipsupportnottingham/photos/a.652048364891021.1073741831.601765153252676/665017190260805/?type=1&comment_id=665142206914970&offset=0&total_comments=4
But, Marf, where's Ratty? Is even he staying at home?
Only difference is that the SNP/UKIP will eat up some Lib Dem "others" representation.
@Scott_P - Is there an album you'd recommend for Rodrigo and Gabriela? I've looked them up and they've quite a few.
Lab 1.8
Con 2.28
LD 1000
Oth 95
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446#id=1.101416473
IS own PR mob are reportedly writing the victory press release at the moment. To give them some credit, like lots of PR types they hype up stuff but if they report progress they mean it and the message out of Raqqa Towers is progress.
There are no less than 3 fronts in the attack on the town so there is some back and forth action hence the reports will vary but over the last few days IS are deeper in than they were at the weekend. Witness an airstrike today in the centre of the town on an IS position. They simply weren't in that location 3 days ago.
Based on where those strikes are, IS are currently having the better of it, at this point potentially decisively.
HYUFD, one other note on the airstrikes. IS has been lobbing artillery into the town for days on end including yesterday, proper kit not just mortars. If airstrikes can't see the base plates in daylight, they are not trying nearly hard enough. I'm still not convinced the 'West' is working this one well enough at all.
One to watch.
"And yet still they lead the Tories. Dire conference, no opportunity to bounce back as yet due to purdah and still they lead."
You make a fair point but after the last few weeks I've got serious concerns that he's able to raise his game. I think most of us thought he was just keeping his powder dry. Now I'm not at all sure he's got anything there.
And Stairway...
Consider this:
Newark:
Turnout in GE 71.4%
Turnout in by-election: 52.8%
Clacton:
Turnout in GE: 64.2%
Newark was seen as a competitive race, with both leading parties, and particularly the Conservatives, throwing the kitchen sink at it to get the vote out. In Clacton, is anyone bothering?
11/10 on less than 50% is a snip. IMO.
http://www.dailysabah.com/columns/ilnur-cevik/2014/10/07/turkey-resists-military-intervention-in-kobani
"Turkey cannot and will not supply or allow anyone else to supply heavy arms to the PYG"
However there is growing risk that the Turkish alliance with ISIS against the Kurds will turn into a Kurdish-Turkish war.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/10/turkey-syria-kurds-isis-kobani-war.html
"In sum, while there are Turkish citizens in IS ranks, the number of men and women going over from Turkey to join the YPG and the YPJ is increasing. Opposing forces from Turkey are confronting each other beyond the border. When you add the murky relations of Turkish government with various actors of the Syrian crisis, it is not hard to see that this war is increasingly becoming Turkey's war."
You are most kind, Sir.
I will forward your comments to Marf personally.