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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To T
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon
Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour.
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NPXMP can also explain to us and his constituents why he believes the newly arrived immigrant family should have first right to housing over the young local couple. The answer is clear, these should be allocated on needs and he feels the immigrant need is more pressing He should at least be honest and say why he thinks this is the case.
Sadly, like his leader, he will probably forget to talk about immigration.
It doesn't look like a battle, UKIP have steamrolled the Tories since day one, perhaps Farage might do a stunt driving a steamroller over a David Cameron cardboard cut out once the results are in.
As for the Chinese are you discounting those from Hong Kong which was British until recently and also students who will return home when completing their courses?
But you make a half-decent point in that 400,000 is more than I would have thought for the Chinese in the UK. But I don't think the fact that they can live in those numbers relatively peacefully and successfully compared to other immigrants backs up your argument very much.
Simples.
The other by-election may be more interesting. Whilst Labour should win it, a loss would be dramatic, and a strong UKIP second could put Miliband under more pressure.
For me, its poll versus turnout. The polls have had labour winning comfortably. Will the result show the same?
The effect may not be quite enough for UKIP to topple Labour somewhere like Heywood where the by election comes after the sad death of a much loved and beyond reproach "old" Labour MP (in the nicest sense of the word).
However, if this form of criminality is as widespread as is claimed in some quarters it won't just have happened in solid Labour seats, it will have happened in more marginal ones, and even where it didn't, labour voters in the marginals will have friends and relations where it did apparently happen. The result may be that in various marginals that Labour need to win in 2015, and would be expected to win; they inexplicably won't.
Also over the next few years you will see increasing numbers of UKIP councillors in the areas concerned, eroding Labours base, so in the long term (unless UKIP are stupid) Labour may have a serious challenge in their rotten boroughs.
Another thing that is in the back of my mind is. How well can pollsters communicate with Ds and Es. If the Ds and Es suddenly decide Labour is rotten to the core and change allegance, will the pollsters pick this up?
It will be a splendid irony if UKIP pile up "tory" votes in safe tory seats and pile up Labour votes in marginal seats.
Furthermore, periods of mass immigration cannot be open ended. There must be a clear expectation of an end to the period (either in terms of timescales or numbers) and some subsequent consolidation.
Clearly on both counts our government have and are still singularly failing.
I favour membership of the EU (which requires free movement, as I'm exercising right now, or would be if we were bloody moving) and the points system outside the EU. I agree with the current system of social housing being prioritised to whichever legal residents need it most. In other words, I agree with current Conservative, Labour and LibDem policy.
You're the chap who wants to prioritise people whose great-uncles lived down the road and NEVER LEFT, or possibly people who are sufficiently white to pass some sort of genetic test, right? I asked you to clarify how your preferred law would read, but seem to have missed your reply. Could you repeat it?
Conservatives now 9.5 to buy and Labour 1 to sell.
Got on the Tories at £10/pt with a buy at 8.5
Ben Walker @MisterBenWalker 2h2 hours ago
Crikey. On the front page of the Clacton Gazette. That'll help get the vote out.
LDs up to 12% I reckon maybe even 14%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29546041
There are some downsides. In rain, a driver would need to be able to see clearly. I doubt steaming up would be a concern (they'd address that easily enough). If a car went upside down it'd increase the chance of a piece of the car breaking and potentially injuring the driver.
It is something they should consider, but it's not a clear-cut decision.
I'm a little bit sick of people using "East European Jews" as a kind of pinnacle of successful integration, then using it to bash other immigrants who don't reach the standard. Firstly, it's ridiculous to compare one group whose integration process is, for the most part, long-completed with other groups whose journey is still ongoing. Secondly, it ignores (or more likely, time forgets) the very serious bumps there were along the way.
As tim never tired of pointing out, the first wave of modern terrorist attacks on British soil was led by radical militant Jews. (Associated with an ideology of anarchism or communism, rather than an ideology with a spiritual component - but the particular association between some sections of the Jewish community and radical ideology was no cultural coincidence, it was intimately linked with the effect of the Haskalah, or Jewish Enlightenment, through the Western diaspora.)
At a less extreme level, those elements who maintained religious orthopraxy were considered, to varying degrees among the British public, alien, discomforting, inwards-looking and backwards. They didn't fit neatly into the schema for Britain held by Christian traditionalists, nor by secular progressives.
Areas of East London that had once echoed to the Francophone sound of the Huguenots, spent many years under Yiddish domination. Jewish cultural societies, Yiddish-language arts and lending libraries, a people who would only shop at "their own" (i.e. kosher) retailers - all gave rise to the impression of a semi-sealed country that had formed within a city.
In truth, there was a permeability of people, culture and ideas that made today's level of integration inevitable. But subtle diffusion is seldom obvious, and even less likely to grab headlines. To some extent the whole thing is a numbers game. What in pockets, and isolated neighbourhoods, may be considered perfectly tolerable. benign and even quaint - just another pattern in the grand human patchwork - can seem exclusive, forbidding, even threatening, if it extends to several boroughs. Perhaps those impressions may be a matter of perception without substance, but it strikes me as at least arguable, that a larger, stronger, more self-sustaining and self-contained community will be less permeable to outside influences and integration may proceed at a more lethargic pace.
But the fact that there are no large ghettos, no mass unemployment or social issues associated with the Chinese in the UK and they generally don't cause many problems in comparison to other immigrant groups pretty much shows that being selective with immigration is a sensible move.
that is why its so interesting. The labour voters probably have it in their power to unseat ed if they choose, by not voting for him.
Plus, could tories vote tactically? If I was a tory voter there, I'd be seriously tempted.
The bet I came across that I liked was William Hills 7/2 for UKIP to win a by-election before the next general election. Thought it was a fun bet as well as good value since it had nearly 2 years to run potentially. I put £20 on. I assume I found the bet on here but I've not seen any mention of it recently with respect to the upcoming by-elections. Did anyone else take that bet?
I admit I was getting a bit worried a few weeks ago that I might be running out of time, then, like the proverbial London buses, three turn up at the same time to save my bacon.
I know we have some broadbrush stuff - but it'd be interesting to see some data and how it compares to others.
Thanks for getting back. Enjoy DB!
No major issue with EU immigration. Why do you favour mass third world immigration? There are no UK treaty commitments. I somehow susppct your points system will still allow in the mass of Somalis and Pakistanis intent on self immolation. Anyway, do you think mass third world immigration has made the likelihood of another UK terror attack higher?
I notice you have not said why you think mass third world immigration is good for Britain.
I have no problem with British citizens getting priority for social housing. You do. Do I think nationality law should be changed? Yes. Labour handed out passports like confetti to shore up their vote base.
Will you include your above points in your election address.
A few years ago Channel 4 had an excellent documentary looking at different groups in this way. The few Chinese-descended immigrants (second generation) I've met had English first names and were model citizens.
Mr. Timmo, it's possible. Would also lead to substantial aerodynamic change.
Or maybe you are and are trying to fudge the issue whilst completely ignoring my main point. Yet again.
(Note: do not confuse with Crystal Swing, who are more Celtic)
Edited extra bit: offer only lasts a week or less.
I don't rescind my comment, in the sense that it clearly is true that many Chinese students come with the hope of eventually obtaining British citizenship, but there are also very many Chinese students who don't. My observation is anecdotal, I know, but I do know quite a lot of Chinese folk (a biased sample: they're here because they stayed). Yet I'm also aware, from personal experience, many students want to get back to China ASAP because that's where, economically, the action is at the moment.
I found it interesting that a lot of Chinese people who opted for the permanent residence route, still don't intend for it to be utterly permanent - the passport is the real prize, it provides greater travel (hence business) opportunities and it gives them a safe haven for themselves and their assets if China's changes become too dramatic. But the attraction of home culture, the necessity of caring for parents in old age, and potential investment opportunities, still seems to be strong. Almost all the Chinese people I know intend to spend their later middle age in China, and possibly their retirements. Perhaps life will get in the way of their plans, of course.
It just seems like the usual routine of keep muddying the waters whilst ignoring the main thrust of an argument until someone "slips up" and then accuse them of being a racist/xenophobic.
So on that note I'm off to do some tedious chores rather than not get anywhere with a debate about immigration. We all know the powers that be aren't going to be changing policy any time soon.
It is supported by the fact that Chinese, Malaysian, Korean students have not been noticeably reduced by the changes in student visas, while those from other areas have.
Chinese students also vary rarely bring over accompanying family members, or work to supplement their means. They are generally here to study and become fluent before returning home.
The primary purpose rule would be a good way of cutting a lot of this stuff off, but the Tories are too timid to bring it back.
Yes, I had 40 quid at 3/1 in April this year. I can't remember who tipped it, if anybody. It may even have been my own research, since like yourself I have long been of the opinion that's UKIP's odds have been understated in many markets.
EDIT Have you tried Jose Feliciano? Just wonderful slow Latin. His version of Light My Fire is just epically sultry.
youtube.com/watch?v=w7rXONoTOHg
"... Seems to be a topic of discussion for the seagulls also."
Well spotted, MBE.
I can assure you the allusion was perfectly deliberate, but appears to have been overlooked by the many wrapped up with St Antifrank vs Xenophobes United.
Tangentially, I am surprised no one's done an article in the press on the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (for whom Mr Hope is standing tomorrow) in light of the Lib Dem's key policy yesterday on mental health. Whilst it's of course laudable of the Lib Dem's to raise understanding of depression and for the media to avoid insulting people aren't well, I do feel a little bit sorry for the Loonies who are left in an awkward position as well as having a name and brand that are somewhat diminished.
The NW seems less pervious to UKIPs charms than the NE and Yorkshire/Humber.
Labour's grip in Y and H isn't as firm as the NW.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2785066/Paddy-Ashdown-downs-beer-mocks-crazy-Lib-Dems-raucous-Glee-Club-conference-bash.html
I picked up a double LP for US$3 in Troy, NY, a couple of years ago.
http://o.canada.com/news/immigration-temporary-foreign-workers-435030
''In 2008, the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada outpaced the number of new permanent residents for the first time, and in 2012 the gap had grown to 491,547 temporary foreign workers compared to 257,515 permanent residents. There are many high-skilled workers in that pool as well, but they have an easier path to permanent residency and will have their applications fast-tracked starting in 2015.''
On of the commentators says
''Its so funny because the Temporary Foreign Workers didn't take our jobs, as our lazy, entitled, over paid, society didn't want those jobs as they were beneth us. Also, the TFW's don't work for less pay then us, they get paid the same as everyone else, the difference is they actually want to work. ''
As for your comment that they have no unintegrated blocks...
''The vast majority of immigrants move to Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, in that order.
In each of these major cities immigrants have increasingly been creating ethnic enclaves, which Statistics Canada defines as neighbourhoods in which more than 30 per cent of the population is a visible minority.
Tens of thousands of Metro Vancouver residents are among those who each year quietly make their housing choices based in part on whether they will feel comfortable with the cultural and ethnic makeup of a particular neighbourhood.
Canada had only six ethnic enclaves in 1976. Now Metro Vancouver alone has more than 110.''
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2012/01/08/five-trends-in-canadian-immigration-and-diversity/
Do you care to either change your mind or explain how the Vancouver Sun is wrong when it says
''Many neighbour-hoods in Richmond are more than 70 per cent Chinese, while others in north Surrey are 70 per cent South Asian. Meanwhile, many neighbour-hoods in Tsawwassen, south Surrey and the North Shore remain predominantly white.''.
blockquote class="Quote" rel="Duderooster"> For something completely different - try Chick Corea - My Spanish Heart.
I picked up a double LP for US$3 in Troy, NY, a couple of years ago.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=1Js1VKjoIrOM7AbfoYDoAg&url=http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbc7a9aoWEI&ved=0CBwQtwIwAA&usg=AFQjCNEIszyswKHzGCobSuKOa2Eh5c1UAQ
Soca is for dancing to, rather than easy listening.
Your post reflects the Toronto I stayed in and enjoyed earlier this.
I disagree, though, with your bashing the Tories line. The Lib Dems have done that for years. It makes them look hypocritical and prevents their attempts to claim credit for good things in government, because you can't run it down and then remark on how super it's been. To paraphrase myself from a day or two ago:
"Look at David Cameron. What a git. Or 'sir', as I call him Monday-Friday."
It sounds much like London, am I right?
@Duderooster - that's interesting, I can't tell if I like it or not - it's such a mix of styles rolled into one. Will give it a few listens and see if it grows on me!
http://www.gov.hk/en/residents/immigration/chinese/law.htm
But it's possible to be Chinese with dual nationality in certain circumstances, e.g. born in China to one parent of Chinese nationality and one parent holding a foreign nationality.
What you can't do is be Chinese by birth, then acquire foreign citizenship, without forfeit of your Chinese nationality. There are still plenty of Chinese citizens who want a foreign passport though. The two reasons I've been told most often are that a US or European passport can ease visa-fee travel (for tourism purposes but also good for business), and that it gives an element of security - a bolt-hole - if China becomes unstable or if they or their family have a falling out with a government official.
I've gone the whole hog and downloading both Stars of Love and Cave Rave.
It's got a fuddy duddy reputation BUT the beach is glorious, the grass promenade is vast (bring a kite) and as for the golf course by the sea, I've lost more balls on that than the times "EICIPM" has been posted on PB, ...well almost and I've only played there a few times!
Top top place if you want an old fashioned break.... breaks my heart just a little to see it being the first constituency to vote for a NIMBYkipper MP to Parliament.
Saw him live once, sadly died in 2000.
I found it vibrant and interesting. And there's plenty of money there. I would liken it though to the larger mid-Western North American cities than anything in Europe.
I preferred it to Montreal, which is showing serious signs of urban decline.
Rochester will be huge.
With regard to the Chinese immigrant discussion ( a bit belatedly), I wonder how the ones that immigrated from Hong Kong to Milton Keynes in 1997 are doing (MK being the nearest thing to HK that we had then). I remember at the time that the council wanted to create a 'chinatown' for them but they weren't keen – I remember one woman saying that now she was in England she wanted to be English. Based on my own personal experiences, I have only the highest regard for these Chinese immigrants – they are pretty much the perfect type, hard-working, law-abiding intelligent, ambitious, family-oriented etc.
I adore Smooth, Oye Como Va and Into The Night - so anything at all like any of them... I'm a huge Chad Kroeger fan hence loving Into The Night. I had no idea they were so massive as Nickelback - biggest Canadian band with 50m albums sold...only second to the Beatles to gain such success in the USA.
I'm making a point nowadays of reading the Wiki entries for each band - the amount of cross-pollination is quite something.
Is that an accurate assessment?
I had a certain involvement with a scheme bringing Chinese students into the UK. Something I heard via a Chinese official interested me: they were quite accepting of the fact not all of them would come back. Rather than worry about a brain drain, it was believed to be a net positive to China if some of their bright young things were to settle down and do well for themselves in the West. If there were Chinese-born leaders in academia, officialdom and commerce, then it would be easier for a once-isolated country to do business all around the world. The presence of a group of people high up in Western society who had a sense of Chinese culture and history, and understood the Chinese government's perspective on various internal and international issues, might foster more sympathy for the Chinese worldview and help build better relations.
Not sure to what extent the chap was speaking for himself, but it seemed logical enough. It may have been something to be do with this particular project, which was originally conceived as having an "elite" focus - there was a level of political vetting (including confirmation that the parents of the students involved were atheist and that they were members of the Communist Party) which I don't think applies to Chinese students in general.
A UKIP canvasser tells me he did Frinton recently and the respondents were breaking about 10 Kippers for every 8 Con. Since we can safely assume that it is normally a strong Tory area that suggests Carswell is in, but Watling will earn a respectable second.
Sorry but that's all the comfort I can offer you.
Idaho gets a stay of the Supreme Court ruling overturning gay marriage bans, at the request of its governor
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2014/oct/08/justice-kennedy-blocks-ruling-allowing-gay-marriag/
The governor's name is Butch.
For being impossible to keep still - try Smooth > youtube.com/watch?v=6Whgn_iE5uc
Jaywick, to the south, is poorer; Frinton much more comfortable.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/clacton/
The Ashcroft poll has Labour winning the 18-24 age band, and UKIP winning the rest, with shares of 60%+
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clacton-poll-Full-data-tables-September-2014.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_by-election,_2014#Polling
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/after-losing-conference-season-labour-fears-it-no-longer-deserves-win
"....They are pretty much the perfect type, hard-working, law-abiding intelligent, ambitious, family-oriented etc."
Hmm...just exactly the sort of people that would get on my tits.
Metallica on Spanish guitars anyone?
https://itunes.apple.com/gb/album/rodrigo-y-gabriela/id912333323