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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi asks Would Ed face a coup a few months after

13

Comments

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Well I see Ed is still crap and EV4EL is still a disaster for him.

    On a brighter note

    The good news is Maccabi Petach Tikvaood have just taken the lead i am laying my bet now

    How did you get a bet on Maccabi Petach Tikva ffs?
  • Alistair said:


    So Cameron is mediocre. Yet the Scots voted to continue to have Dave as PM.

    All those that said Dave would have to resign if Yes won are going to have to live with the flip side. A no victory is a great tribute for Dave.

    I know you are just being contrary for the lolz but the third largest city in the country doesn't want to be part of the country. If you think that's an awesome epitaph for a Prime Minister of a country then you are easily pleased.
    Glasgow isn't the third largest city in the UK.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Ed Miliband needs something or other, a sex scandal perhaps.

    ARE YOU VOLUNTEERING?
    No.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelPDeacon: Female reporter to Farage: "You say that in the past Ukip has 'looked too blokey'. Today you've been to the pub twice and stood on a tank"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I just don't see this scenario at all. It greatly underestimates the power and patronage of a sitting PM and the terms of the Labour party constitution. If he gets into office he is almost immoveable. Labour tested this principle to destruction the last time: no matter how bad or mad a sitting Labour PM does not get removed.

    There is, I suppose, the possibility of Ed doing an Estelle Morris and admitting that he is just not up to the job but this is a man with apparently limitless intellectual self confidence. Just not going to happen.

    There is a scenario where Labour get into a panic before the election and decide that an Ed led party is heading for melt down. It is worth thinking about what might cause this.

    I would suggest it would have to be a lot more than a 2-3% lead for the Tories which would probably still leave Labour as the largest party. I would suggest Ed will only be in trouble before the campaign starts if (a) the Tory lead starts to exceed that from the last election so sitting MPs get twitchy in serious numbers or (b) Labour start to poll under what they got in the last election, that is well into the 20s. Neither of these scenarios look remotely plausible or possible at the present time, at least not in time to allow a change to be made.
  • antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ed Miliband needs something or other, a sex scandal perhaps.

    Well if he keeps wandering around Hampstead Heath talking with strangers, that should sort itself out without too much extra effort.
    Surely if he wanted a sex scandal, he'd be better off wandering Clapham Common.
  • antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ed Miliband needs something or other, a sex scandal perhaps.

    Well if he keeps wandering around Hampstead Heath talking with strangers, that should sort itself out without too much extra effort.
    They are also mainly young....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    ELAN Ed loves a Nipple or some Latin phrase?

    please throw forth
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    All those that said Dave would have to resign if Yes won are going to have to live with the flip side. A no victory is a great tribute for Dave.

    No way. The No victory, such as it was, owed absolutely nothing to him. The only thing Dave contributed was a sense of panic.
    If he was going to be responsible for defeat then you're going to have to say he was responsible for victory.
    Nope. Pure revisionism. Doubt Dave secured a single vote for the UK, but a great many against. If any Tory deserve credit, it is the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson.


    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    All those that said Dave would have to resign if Yes won are going to have to live with the flip side. A no victory is a great tribute for Dave.

    No way. The No victory, such as it was, owed absolutely nothing to him. The only thing Dave contributed was a sense of panic.
    If he was going to be responsible for defeat then you're going to have to say he was responsible for victory.
    Nope. Pure revisionism. Doubt Dave secured a single vote for the UK, but a great many against. If any Tory deserve credit, it is the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson.


    Laughable comment. One-eyed does not even begin to cover it.
  • Scott_P said:

    George Osborne is the public's favourite politician

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-is-the-publics-favourite-politician--with-a-score-of-zero-9779764.html

    This post was sponsored by NewsSense™

    Am I the only one absolutely amazed by this? He was the most hated of the lot a while back if I'm not mistaken.

    Shows that Labour's over the top personal attacks didn't work in the long run.

    I wonder what tim would make of it all.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:


    So Cameron is mediocre. Yet the Scots voted to continue to have Dave as PM.

    All those that said Dave would have to resign if Yes won are going to have to live with the flip side. A no victory is a great tribute for Dave.

    I know you are just being contrary for the lolz but the third largest city in the country doesn't want to be part of the country. If you think that's an awesome epitaph for a Prime Minister of a country then you are easily pleased.
    I'm pleased that by a majority 10% on an 80% plus turnout the Scots wanted to remain part of the UK.

    I'm pleased that Edinburgh the heart of Scotland overwhelmingly voted No.
    Anyone on the No side that is pleased that a 5.5% swing would have resulted in the breakup of the UK must have believed that Scotland was a long term seething hotbed of Nationalism hitherto undetected by the polls for the last 100 years.

    Basically it would be a lot more believable if the No side columnists hadn't been writing smarmy opinion pieces for the last 3 years predicting sub-30% Yes results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Scott_P said:

    George Osborne is the public's favourite politician

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-is-the-publics-favourite-politician--with-a-score-of-zero-9779764.html

    This post was sponsored by NewsSense™

    The most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    I think Miliband could've brushed off forgetting the deficit, if he hadn't also forgotten the policy of free owls for everyone.
  • Hmmmm

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle

    Hill's Somerset client stakes £22,409 to collect £49,134 if General Election results in No Overall Majority - now 10/11 shot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, that's a tasty bet.

    Does 'to collect' include the stake, though? Either way, it looks pretty good. A majority either way could yet happen but it's a value bet.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    So Cameron is mediocre. Yet the Scots voted to continue to have Dave as PM.

    All those that said Dave would have to resign if Yes won are going to have to live with the flip side. A no victory is a great tribute for Dave.

    I know you are just being contrary for the lolz but the third largest city in the country doesn't want to be part of the country. If you think that's an awesome epitaph for a Prime Minister of a country then you are easily pleased.
    I'm pleased that by a majority 10% on an 80% plus turnout the Scots wanted to remain part of the UK.

    I'm pleased that Edinburgh the heart of Scotland overwhelmingly voted No.
    Anyone on the No side that is pleased that a 5.5% swing would have resulted in the breakup of the UK must have believed that Scotland was a long term seething hotbed of Nationalism hitherto undetected by the polls for the last 100 years.

    Basically it would be a lot more believable if the No side columnists hadn't been writing smarmy opinion pieces for the last 3 years predicting sub-30% Yes results.
    Basically it would be a lot more believable if the Nats side hadn't been predicting victory for years, because they knew what was going on the ground.

    Why don't the Nats mention the Radical Independence Canvassing results, or the number of the Yes stickers/flags/banners in windows any more.
  • Mr. Eagles, that's a tasty bet.

    Does 'to collect' include the stake, though? Either way, it looks pretty good. A majority either way could yet happen but it's a value bet.

    Yes it does.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2014

    I think Miliband could've brushed off forgetting the deficit, if he hadn't also forgotten the policy of free owls for everyone.

    No, that was misunderstood. It was a free howl for everyone.

    Which he delivered on when having to listen to his speech.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MikeK said:

    Well I see Ed is still crap and EV4EL is still a disaster for him.

    On a brighter note

    The good news is Maccabi Petach Tikvaood have just taken the lead i am laying my bet now

    How did you get a bet on Maccabi Petach Tikva ffs?
    Stan James loves Israel div 1 games and covers them in running.

    76 mins gone and still 1-0 against Hapoel Petach Tikva but win or draw is now fine
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: A Labour insider tries to sum up the mood: "This is us, dying in the trenches.”
  • Maybe Ed should ask his political idol Hollande for advice? But Justine may not like the Hollande approach to life.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Palmer, to be fair, Labour did try axing Brown. The party was just incompetent at it. Even the Lib Dems can axe a leader. Watching Labour try and get rid of Brown was like watching a toddler furiously trying to pull open a door marked PUSH.

    It wasn't morality or deference that stopped Labour tossing Brown overboard, but ineptitude.
  • Artist said:

    stodge said:

    Fascinating to read Labour "supporters" panicking after three basically statistical dead-heats from YouGov (leads of 1-2% are well within MoE) yet ignoring yesterday's Populus showing a 6% Labour lead.

    No surprise either to see the Conservative-inclined quite to pick up and amplify such "despair" but that's the nature of politics.

    I don't understand why YouGov polls gets undue attention, it was the same during the Scottish independence campaign. I know they're the biggest company and they do the most polls but they don't have the past record to merit being elevated above other pollsters in the way that they are.
    As Mike said yesterday. Polls that don't show the status quo get the most attention.

    YouGov do have a good record (particularly when some people accuse them of bias) such as the London Mayorals and the Euros this year.
    I tend to use YouGov a lot because they poll every day, so you can get a composite sample of 6000 or so in three days - very useful when you want to look at internals. The other thing is that if one poll shows a big or unexpected move, there'll be another one the next (working) day to see if it's sustained. Other pollsters don't have that advantage...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It wasn't morality or deference that stopped Labour tossing Brown overboard, but ineptitude.

    And cowardice
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670



    Why don't the Nats mention the Radical Independence Canvassing results, or the number of the Yes stickers/flags/banners in windows any more.

    I still see a lot of Yes stickers up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So it's confirmed then...

    @michaelsavage: Alan Johnson dismisses leadership rumours... http://t.co/FBJ44adCN5
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Isam, that would imply mass immigration is a good thing (which I'm reasonably sure is not your view).

    Mr. Alistair, the excitement/anger/bitterness/engagement of the Yes voters is why I think they will turn out in the General Election, and help the SNP/harm Labour.
  • Alistair said:



    Why don't the Nats mention the Radical Independence Canvassing results, or the number of the Yes stickers/flags/banners in windows any more.

    I still see a lot of Yes stickers up.
    Is that a tipping point?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, that would imply mass immigration is a good thing (which I'm reasonably sure is not your view).

    Mr. Alistair, the excitement/anger/bitterness/engagement of the Yes voters is why I think they will turn out in the General Election, and help the SNP/harm Labour.

    Irony
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    For starters, it's given Britain its most popular takeaway food.
  • This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    I forgot to mention the Maccabi Petach Tikva game is an u19 game.

    I think I may have a gambling problem.

    Especially if LAB dont win most seats at GE 2015
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Up to 1648 we just didn't decapitate kings, either. There is always a first time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Owls, depends. If you keep winning then it's not really a problem, is it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

    It's not fair to ask someone who is required to be loyal to be overtly disloyal.

    In my judgement, Nick Palmer is truthful with us and if he doesn't reveal the full truth because he is unable to do so, he usually reveals enough to allow us to make such inferences as we wish to make.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    and help the SNP/harm Labour.

    Careful Mr. Dancer. Predictions that the SNP might make gains at labour's expense get short shrift from OGH.

    Admittedly, the swings needed would be pretty big.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    Sounds plausible, I hope they secured Canvey Island before they started bombing oil facilities.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    For starters, it's given Britain its most popular takeaway food.
    I love a good curry, but I'd happily give up easy access to quality south Asian food in exchange for 1400 school kids not being raped.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Taffys, even with a seemingly massive advantage, complacency can lead to a disastrous result, as Varro found out at Cannae.

    Not only is there the WWC shift, there's the lack of enthusiasm (worse approval ratings than Cameron) for Miliband in Scotland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If this were Australia, there'd probably be a leadership spill to replace Ed, with Alan Johnson and Yvette Cooper frontrunners.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

    It's not fair to ask someone who is required to be loyal to be overtly disloyal.

    In my judgement, Nick Palmer is truthful with us and if he doesn't reveal the full truth because he is unable to do so, he usually reveals enough to allow us to make such inferences as we wish to make.
    How truthful was he when he supported a referendum on the EU on principle, and then opposed a referendum on the EU on principle?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Ishmael_X said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Up to 1648 we just didn't decapitate kings, either. There is always a first time.
    Kings had fallen foul of other groups in the State though. Edward II, Henry VI. And wasn’t it 1649?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:



    Why don't the Nats mention the Radical Independence Canvassing results, or the number of the Yes stickers/flags/banners in windows any more.

    I still see a lot of Yes stickers up.
    Is that a tipping point?
    Probably not, Cameron more than tripling SNP membership might be though. We'll see in the New Year.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nothing to see here...

    @paulwaugh: Lab source tells @michaelsavage Burnham's team "reaching out to party figures in the north + to unions in order to build a base if needed”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    I am currently finding the house husband retirement thing as difficult to solve as the WLQ

    Does the chicken go in breast up?
    What do I do with the Giblets
    Does 2.5 hrs at 180 mean with or without the fan
    How much salt goes on the skin?
    Mrs BJ is virtually a Brain Surgeon

    I take it back the WLQ is easy.
  • antifrank said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

    It's not fair to ask someone who is required to be loyal to be overtly disloyal.
    In my judgement, Nick Palmer is truthful with us and if he doesn't reveal the full truth because he is unable to do so, he usually reveals enough to allow us to make such inferences as we wish to make.
    Q: Is Nick going to become a front line Minister? Answer No.
    So I think it is reasonable to ask him to become a more normal person and not stick to the "my party right or wrong" line.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited October 2014

    Ishmael_X said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Up to 1648 we just didn't decapitate kings, either. There is always a first time.
    Kings had fallen foul of other groups in the State though. Edward II, Henry VI. And wasn’t it 1649?
    It was 1649 (but 1648 old style). But we are today in 1648, relative to a hypothetical decapitation of ed next year.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    taffys said:

    and help the SNP/harm Labour.

    Careful Mr. Dancer. Predictions that the SNP might make gains at labour's expense get short shrift from OGH.

    Admittedly, the swings needed would be pretty big.

    The swings would need to be huge and the Scottish specific polling doesn't support it.

    I had a look at 2009 GE polling and the Scottish sub-samples were at similarly inflated levels for the SNP as they are now in the Scottish sub-samples.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    edited October 2014

    I am currently finding the house husband retirement thing as difficult to solve as the WLQ

    Does the chicken go in breast up?
    What do I do with the Giblets
    Does 2.5 hrs at 180 mean with or without the fan
    How much salt goes on the skin?
    Mrs BJ is virtually a Brain Surgeon

    I take it back the WLQ is easy.

    I have frustrating discussions with mature ladies about computers. Such machines are, apparently, far too complicated.

    BJO have you tried operating the washing machine yet?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Alistair, well, only a few months to go find out. And it'll be the major part of the pb prediction competition for 2015.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"

    And NPXMP and other fellow travellers can perhaps then explain why they want MORE third world immigration.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Team Clegg say @LibDems leader will use autocue for #ldconf speech #deficit

    Hey Ed...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 2m2 minutes ago

    Team Clegg say @LibDems leader will use autocue for #ldconf speech #deficit



    Such is the power and influence of er, Carol Vorderman...!
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

    It's not fair to ask someone who is required to be loyal to be overtly disloyal.

    In my judgement, Nick Palmer is truthful with us and if he doesn't reveal the full truth because he is unable to do so, he usually reveals enough to allow us to make such inferences as we wish to make.
    How truthful was he when he supported a referendum on the EU on principle, and then opposed a referendum on the EU on principle?
    He only supports referendums in Switzerland.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2014
    Itajai said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    And NPXMP and other fellow travellers can perhaps then explain why they want MORE third world immigration.
    So that the shortage of housing gets worse and wages are driven lower and the NHS is swamped with users?
    Just the basic law of supply and demand.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    I am currently finding the house husband retirement thing as difficult to solve as the WLQ

    Does the chicken go in breast up?
    What do I do with the Giblets
    Does 2.5 hrs at 180 mean with or without the fan
    How much salt goes on the skin?
    Mrs BJ is virtually a Brain Surgeon

    I take it back the WLQ is easy.

    I have frustrating discussions with mature ladies about computers. Such machines are, apparently, far too complicated.

    BJO have you tried operating the washing machine yet?
    Written instructions for every washing eventuality are on the fridge.

    I once made the mistake of hanging out Mrs BJs undergarments outside though.

    I pointed out her written instructions were remiss in terms of which items had to be kept secret from the neighbours
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Mr. Alistair, well, only a few months to go find out. And it'll be the major part of the pb prediction competition for 2015.

    To be fair, even Mr Divvie was quite circumspect. He reckoned SNP might get two labour seats, giving labour 39.

    It guess it depends how truly cr*p you think Ed is.
  • Itajai said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"

    And NPXMP and other fellow travellers can perhaps then explain why they want MORE third world immigration.
    So they can accuse anyone opposed to it of racism.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2014
    Alistair said:

    taffys said:

    and help the SNP/harm Labour.

    Careful Mr. Dancer. Predictions that the SNP might make gains at labour's expense get short shrift from OGH.

    Admittedly, the swings needed would be pretty big.

    The swings would need to be huge and the Scottish specific polling doesn't support it.

    I had a look at 2009 GE polling and the Scottish sub-samples were at similarly inflated levels for the SNP as they are now in the Scottish sub-samples.
    Except that the SNP won 53 of 73 constituency seats in 2011. Odd that?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    According to the press, the Jihadists think that being killed by a woman means they don't get to go the happy hunting grounds or whatever because it doesn't count as martyrdom.

    Why not tweet them all to this effect and say that the Kurds employ mainly female fighters and suicide bombers, and that all Allied aircraft are flown by women.

    Give them a bit of psychological warfare.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I still can't quite believe that fact. I know it's true - but it's so appallingly funny.

    Mr. Taffys, even with a seemingly massive advantage, complacency can lead to a disastrous result, as Varro found out at Cannae.

    Not only is there the WWC shift, there's the lack of enthusiasm (worse approval ratings than Cameron) for Miliband in Scotland.

  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Itajai said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    And NPXMP and other fellow travellers can perhaps then explain why they want MORE third world immigration.
    So that the shortage of housing gets worse and wages are driven lower and the NHS is swamped with users?
    Just the basic law of supply and demand.
    ...and schools...

    Better not to mention security.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Nick, how about being honest with us? This is just like the Leadership ineptitude of G Brown. At that time you denied there was any plotting. You are an expert gamer and strategising is second nature to you. So what should Labour do to win a majority at the GE?

    It's not fair to ask someone who is required to be loyal to be overtly disloyal.

    In my judgement, Nick Palmer is truthful with us and if he doesn't reveal the full truth because he is unable to do so, he usually reveals enough to allow us to make such inferences as we wish to make.
    How truthful was he when he supported a referendum on the EU on principle, and then opposed a referendum on the EU on principle?
    Neither did he have any idea about Lab's EU referendum policy.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Ishmael_X said:

    This misreads the Labour Party in a rather Toryish way. First, unlike the Tories, we just don't get rid of leaders who haven't lost an election. Not Brown. Not Foot. Never. Second, Ed is actually widely liked in the party, even by people who didn't vote for him (like me) though supporters worry that his poll ratings might damage our election chances. If we win anyway, the worries will instantly go away. If the Government then runs into trouble (as all governments do), point 1 protects him.

    Up to 1648 we just didn't decapitate kings, either. There is always a first time.
    Kings had fallen foul of other groups in the State though. Edward II, Henry VI. And wasn’t it 1649?
    Don't forget Richard II in your list of Kings that met their deaths in suspicious circumstances, also William II.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    I am currently finding the house husband retirement thing as difficult to solve as the WLQ

    Does the chicken go in breast up?
    What do I do with the Giblets
    Does 2.5 hrs at 180 mean with or without the fan
    How much salt goes on the skin?
    Mrs BJ is virtually a Brain Surgeon

    I take it back the WLQ is easy.

    I have frustrating discussions with mature ladies about computers. Such machines are, apparently, far too complicated.

    BJO have you tried operating the washing machine yet?
    Written instructions for every washing eventuality are on the fridge.

    I once made the mistake of hanging out Mrs BJs undergarments outside though.

    I pointed out her written instructions were remiss in terms of which items had to be kept secret from the neighbours
    I believe they thought she went commando until i retired
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Taffys, some say he's deified by dung beetles.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    CD13 said:


    According to the press, the Jihadists think that being killed by a woman means they don't get to go the happy hunting grounds or whatever because it doesn't count as martyrdom.

    Why not tweet them all to this effect and say that the Kurds employ mainly female fighters and suicide bombers, and that all Allied aircraft are flown by women.

    Give them a bit of psychological warfare.

    Didn´t we wrap them in pig skin in burial mounds during the Indian Mutiny. This stops ascent to heaven too. The PC brigade would not let this happen now though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    What do you mean by "if"? We've already had such attacks by English born terrorists. The only question is how many more and how ghastly they will be.

  • He could have gone to the Lib Dem Conference.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10809128
    "Tokyo's 'oldest man' had been dead for 30 years"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd rather make my own - with the help of the splendid Patak's range of goodies. I gather the founders sold up a few years ago, but not before this splendid quote
    1996 Kirit Pathak received the OBE - which he jokes stands for Onion Bhaji Expert.
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    For starters, it's given Britain its most popular takeaway food.
    I love a good curry, but I'd happily give up easy access to quality south Asian food in exchange for 1400 school kids not being raped.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    Off-topic:

    Wasps RFC is moving to Coventry.

    A good deal for all, Coventry RFC will keep it's (smallish) support and Coventry FC will still be allowed to play there under a rental agreement I'd imagine.

    And Wasps' owners will now have to deal with the nightmare that is SISU (CCFC's owners) (Who have said they are building their own stadium - thus forcing ACL (The Stadium owners) to find alternate business.

    Coventry council will also have a good chance to get paid back the £14 million they had to lend the stadium, although they'll take a few million hit on equity sale.

    It's just been voted through, unanimously by the council.

    A good deal all in all.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    What do you mean by "if"? We've already had such attacks by English born terrorists. The only question is how many more and how ghastly they will be.

    And when we will have a new European Kristallnacht.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When's the next poll being published? I wonder if the Tories can make it 5 out of 7.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pataks are immigrants and almost certainly responsible for 1400 rapes according to some posters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-257267/From-rags-riches-Pataks-story.html
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That reminds me a lot of my husband when he broke his leg and housebound for 3 months. I left him to do the laundry [a first for everything] and came back to find heaps of clothes in the middle of floor and him peering at faded washing labels trying to work out what to do.

    Fortunately, this had stalled his quest to stuff everything in based on 30/40C regardless of colours. A dirty pink result wouldn't have impressed me much.

    I'll never forget his relief when I walked back in "You're right, this is harder than it looks". I never let him near the washer again. He got bin-duty - and hoovering instead.

    I am currently finding the house husband retirement thing as difficult to solve as the WLQ

    Does the chicken go in breast up?
    What do I do with the Giblets
    Does 2.5 hrs at 180 mean with or without the fan
    How much salt goes on the skin?
    Mrs BJ is virtually a Brain Surgeon

    I take it back the WLQ is easy.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I think this is the vote coming up.

    Will bas passes be taken away (again) ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    @skymarkwhite 2m2 minutes ago
    4 men arrested by counter terror police in London, one was tasered during arrest. All 4 being questioned re Islamist related terrorism

    ISIS in England.

    Suspected ISIS in England. Wait and see if it pans out, sometimes they just shoot a random Brazilian.
    No-one seriously doubts that there are radicalised Muslims, in the UK, right now, who are inspired by the "success" of ISIS and are planning small-scale but brutal operations of their own.

    These guys may be an example. Or not. But the threat is very real, as Lee Rigby's family knows all-too-well.
    If there is an ISIS style attack on London, with English born terrorists, I suggest you write a blog based on a reverse Life of Brian: "What Has Mass Immigration Ever Done For Us?"
    For starters, it's given Britain its most popular takeaway food.
    You're right, the Jews did bring in Fish and Chips.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Wasps RFC is moving to Coventry.

    Coventry were one of England's biggest rugby clubs, back in the day.

    Didn't the great David Duckham grace the team at one point??
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Chair definitely CIA.

    Vote FBI!!!
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Orange fading...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Orange dead
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Pataks are immigrants and almost certainly responsible for 1400 rapes according to some posters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-257267/From-rags-riches-Pataks-story.html

    Is your position so weak you really have to lie about the arguments of others?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I hope Tim does win.

    I never want an easy life if me and he were ever to get there.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Kobane: IS fighters targeted by new air strikes

    ... heavy fighting had forced IS to pull back from the eastern districts its fighters had entered on Monday evening. It also suggested many IS fighters had been killed in an ambush by Syrian Kurdish fighters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29526783

    Not everything going ISIL's way.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Me and Ze!!!

    Yes, Brisky giving up again - 16:18 lol
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Socrates said:

    Pataks are immigrants and almost certainly responsible for 1400 rapes according to some posters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-257267/From-rags-riches-Pataks-story.html

    Is your position so weak you really have to lie about the arguments of others?
    What is your position then what did your post mean or are the 1400 rapes my personal responsibility as one poster accused on Sunday
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Hopkins, good news, but why were the air strikes so late?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    taffys said:

    Wasps RFC is moving to Coventry.

    Coventry were one of England's biggest rugby clubs, back in the day.

    Didn't the great David Duckham grace the team at one point??

    Coventry was, and my secondary school (KHVIII) supplied alot of the players (Duckham included). Nowadays the top players from the school would generally head to Leicester Tigers if they are good enough.

    I do sometimes watch Cov RFC when I visit my parents, they will be just fine I suspect as the fanbase there is quite loyal.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    Always difficult to unseat an incumbert Leader if they do not want to go.Burnham might be more popular in the party but how come he did so poorly in the 2010 leadership?Yvette Cooper has clearly been working hard at her appearance and given Harriet Harman`s success in Deputy contest there is a huge bias among labour party members for the right female candidate
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    taffys said:

    and help the SNP/harm Labour.

    Careful Mr. Dancer. Predictions that the SNP might make gains at labour's expense get short shrift from OGH.

    Admittedly, the swings needed would be pretty big.

    The swings would need to be huge and the Scottish specific polling doesn't support it.

    I had a look at 2009 GE polling and the Scottish sub-samples were at similarly inflated levels for the SNP as they are now in the Scottish sub-samples.
    Except that the SNP won 53 of 73 constituency seats in 2011. Odd that?
    Not really, the Scottish electorate has repeatedly shown it votes differently in Holyrood than it does at Westminster. Labour constituency voters in particular vote for other parties on the List vote.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Tim taking on the Yessers!!!!

    Better late than never.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Iain Martin is also baffled. blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100288925/what-the-lib-dems-are-doing-makes-no-sense/
    This leaves the Lib Dems desperate, understandably, to attract attention. But the methods their leading figures have employed in recent days make absolutely no strategic sense. None whatsoever. It makes them look confused and untrustworthy.

    They have decided to attack the Tories in strong and sometimes ridiculous terms. Yet, these are the people that senior Lib Dems work with every day in Whitehall and the Commons.

    The idea seems to be that attacking their colleagues will suggest to voters that the nice, centrist Lib Dems hold back the beastly Tories. Simultaneously, the Lib Dems are rushing leftwards, demanding higher taxes, all the while briefing, so it is reported, that a deal with Labour is very unlikely because, well, they're no good either. And with a final flourish it is whispered that the Lib Dems will probably prop up the Tories again after all if it comes to it, the startling presumption being that the Tories will want another partnership with people who brand them liars and loons.

    For the Lib Dems, a party with a major trust problem after the tuition fees imbroglio, this is not a good approach. Anyone paying attention – and that is not many people – will pick up only a confused jumble of shouting about the government by people who are actually in government.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:



    Why don't the Nats mention the Radical Independence Canvassing results, or the number of the Yes stickers/flags/banners in windows any more.

    I still see a lot of Yes stickers up.
    Is that a tipping point?
    Probably not, Cameron more than tripling SNP membership might be though. We'll see in the New Year.
    Although credit to Cameron, he's managed to slow down new members to only an extra 2000 in the last 5 days.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014

    Socrates said:

    Pataks are immigrants and almost certainly responsible for 1400 rapes according to some posters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-257267/From-rags-riches-Pataks-story.html

    Is your position so weak you really have to lie about the arguments of others?
    What is your position then what did your post mean or are the 1400 rapes my personal responsibility as one poster accused on Sunday
    My position was that one of the products of mass immigration was 1400 child rapes, which happened because, among other causes, of a combination of misogyny and disdain of white people among certain ethnic groups. Given that we were discussing what mass immigration had done for us in the aggregate, I thought the point was quite clear. Only an idiot would think I meant every individual immigrant is responsible for that. Especially when I go out of my way again and again to point out that there are plenty of decent law-abiding integrated immigrants of the first and second generation. Some people are just desperate to see racism because they can't deal with the actual arguments and evidence of the matter.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    The polls (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) have moved against Labour - is this a genuine pattern change or just the volatility we expect after conference season? Time will tell as ever, but this is not the time to be throwing in the towel or popping champgne corks whatever 'side' (if any) you support.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Clegg's got to follow this.

    Hope he's got his A5 (codeword alert) out.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Only Forward Tim Only Forward
This discussion has been closed.