Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as we see polling like this it increases the chance
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as we see polling like this it increases the chances of tactical voting against UKIP
Whilst the polling on this question has improved slightly for UKIP since May, it still represents a problem for the party. I’ve noted in the past that in politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, and unfortunately they are perceived as the party of fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Keep on trucking Kippers!!!
Do you think the Labour Party is a racist party?
Do you think the LD Party is a racist party?
If you want to compare attitudes to parties, you need comparable data.
Is it me, or do the UKIP bars look like an extended middle finger?
9% is the number of Kippers who think their candidates are more likely to hold racist/offensive views.
Racism, or rather "racism", is considered the great thought crime among the great and the good. I am not sure the great unwashed get so agitated about it.
9 polls with fieldwork end-dates 28th Sep to 4th Oct, total weighted sample size 11,610:
Lab 35.6% (-0.5)
Con 32.7% (+1.0)
UKIP 14.4% (-0.3)
LD 7.4% (+0.1)
Lab lead 2.9% (-1.5%)
When I do it, I get:
Ukip (281-62) 36%
Con (216-22) 32%
Lab (177-6) 28%
There are 91 'did not vote': total voters (697-91)
p.8, table 5
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf
Although my undergraduate study of philosophy classes this as an Ad Hominem attack.
Establishment Tories really hate UKIP.
If there was an anti-establishment leftist party it would really be hated by Establishment Labour.
The common theme being the establishment hates anything that threatens change.
Does that mean the LDs will stop bleating on about climate change?
Sadly, probably not.
"I'd like to meet the 2% of Kippers who think their party is racist"
Look for ones without their fingers crossed
Can't crap grammar completely change the meaning of a contract ?
My major problem has been leaving out words, which totally feck things up.
http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/politics/200-sign-petition-calling-for-resignations-over-milton-keynes-rapist-taxi-driver-scandal-1-6287499
That seems like a serious matter. Shouldn't the LDs expel people like that?
It isn't clever, and it isn't funny.
EU migrants in the Welsh valleys.
And my little boy is in class with a Lithunian girl. Stunningly pretty she is.
Eastern European immigration us changing the landscape even in deepest, darkest Wales
Including the usual complaints of "I bought my house for only £400k and now I'll get taxed through no fault of my own".
That said people have made a seven figure capital gain through no effort of their own is never mentioned.
1st Immigration 28.7%
2nd Economy 12.8%
3rd Health 9%
4th Cost Of Living 7%
5th The EU 6.8%
6th Education 6.1%
7th Poverty 3.4%
8th Welfare 3.3%
9th Housing 1.6%
Other 21,4%
Good luck to the Tories and Labour trying to defend their records on Immigration.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf
Its a pity so many parties so often conflate the issues and immigration and race because ironically its not UKIP who demand that migrants from the African, Asian and American continents have a good standard of English whilst allowing entry to Europeans who do not speak a word of the language without blinking an eyelid.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11142076/Coalition-with-Ed-Miliband-would-be-enormously-damaging-for-Liberal-Democrats-minister-warns.html
"The Liberal Democrats must not go into coalition with Labour even if they win more seats after the general election because the association with Ed Miliband would be so “damaging” for the party, a minister has warned."
What that dosent say is how many of that 68%, 59% of them either:
* Think they are a probably a bit racist but are not greatly bothered as they care more about the economy/immigration/national sovereignty/tax etc.
* Think they are a bit racist but not bothered unless they are overtly racist. (ie being rude about foreigners when in the pub with friends is one thing, bricks through windows and ostracising a relation for marrying someone black is another).
* Think they are a racist party but secretly rather approve of this providing they keep immigration down.
* Think they are not racist enough but better than the other three sets of liberal bigots
While racism is the sin against the holy ghost for the elite, many other people are not particularly exercised by it as an issue unless it involves nastiness/rudeness to invididual people or the risk of the state behaving like franco's Spain or apartheid South Africa, neither of which are remotely likely even if UKIPs wilder members formed a majority in parliament.
This post is surely further evidence of (a) why the Libdems hate them so much (81% and they probably all feel quite strongly about it) and (b) why our elite just don't get it.
That said, I shall be taking a break from PB for most of this month.
Holiday end of the month, and plus editing PB takes a lot of you, especially during these hectic times.
I guess the Tories would pick an English Rose type, if they could find one. Failing that, they could go with the Allo Allo guy again I suppose, assuming he hasn't got any work on at the moment.
Are our children so bedazzled with all the certificates, diplomas and other valueless qualifications that we give them that they can't see jobs right on their doorstep? It is disappointing.
The 'Poles' live similarly to local British people - they go to work in the morning, come home in the evening, have their dinner, watch TV then go to bed.
With the Roma you instead get a lot of loitering around the streets day and night. Which makes them both much more visible to local people and much more concerning.
See Scottish sub-samples...
Hurrah for low skill, low prestige, low wage jobs! We should have some sort of system where we all have one.
Thanks Sunil. I am a very lucky man.
"Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following."
Green Party: +27% / -29% (-2)
Labour Party: +30% / -43% (-13)
UKIP: +27% / -43% (-16)
The EU: +23% / -45% (-22)
Conservative Party: +25% / -48% (-23)
The ugly sister there is the Conservatives. (There was no LD Party question.)
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
EDIT
The previous month included the LDs
Lib Dems: +13% / -53% (-40)
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_24th_August_2014_12371.pdf
Take last Saturday, I wanted a quiet Saturday afternoon, what happens, Mark Reckless defects, and Brooks Newmark's bizarre love triangle with todger and mobile phone happen.
Last Wednesday really peed me off, and that was Farage's fault.
I'm at the cinema, at 5pm, with their big defection news scheduled for then.
It's almost as if they're being deliberately provocative - and want to take a bit of stand.
I can see many of them thinking that if Kippers were of the same views - well then they're Like Me. As you say, they wouldn't approve of name calling or being aggressive - but they want what they feel is their country back/to stop apologising for being British.
This group also includes a chunk of people who work in client contact in social services. I was surprised how unPC they were about how they felt. I was left with the overwhelming impression that they're sick of the piss-taking they deal with as part of their day jobs.
An interesting bit of anecdata from my POV.
It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.
I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.
.........not only was I right, but TSE continues his slanted threads on UKIP. He must really fear UKIP may eventually swamp the Tories that he so supports.
Whilst the site's collective knowledge of classical history would be improved (markedly) by your absence, the terrible 1980s pop references would suffer a dramatic decline.
Don't worry, if more polls show the Tories ahead, I'll be back.
Or if any more thrice cursed, traitorous pig dogs defect and join UKIP, I'll be back to denounce them.
To the deluded Kippers screaming victimisation.
I go where the polling and betting angle takes me.
Clearly you have reading and comprehension issues otherwise you may have missed my threads from just this week which
1) Pointed out backing UKIP in Rochester and Stroud was value which has turned out to be a profitable tip
2) A thread that criticised the Tories for attacking Mark Reckless/Kippers
Didn't see you complaining then.
But I think we just hit Peak Plato!!!!!
A platonic climax?
(Note to self: volunteer for something!)
And then compare it with how much local house prices are ?
I need a few weeks not thinking about politics.
ISIS are so vile, abhorrent and dangerous we've got to do what we can to stop them. Diplomacy matters more than the military, for us, but if bombing ISIS helps the Kurds and Iraqi Government then bomb we should.
Anyway I very much doubt that ISIS will capture Baghdad, its too big and majority Shia now.
Still events in the region do suggest that Qatar might not be the best place to hold a FIFA World Cup.
When two tribes go to war, money's all that you can score!
I don't really have a view on immigration, I'm not at all affected by it. I tend to like everybody by default, regardless of where they are from (although I have experienced a few dodgy moments with Somalians in Cardiff. They are very territorial and from anecdote it appears a lot of non-Somalians have had issues with them), I'm typically dopey, friendly Welsh in that respect. Chris Mullin summed up immigration and 'sending them 'ome' best for me. His diaries showed that it is very easy and simplistic to be anti-immigration, particularly against illegal immigrants. But not so easy when you are the one sending a working mam and dad and their crying children back to some hellhole in Africa.