Lets make a scenario: On electoral calculus with this poll we have LAB 316, CON 296, LD 11, SNP 6, PC 3. Practically the LD are going to hold an extra 10 seats from the Tories and UKIP are probably going to elect 10 MP's too all of them from the Tories, also the SNP is going to gain a few LD and Labour seats lets say 3 from each , so the eventual number would be LAB 313, CON 276, LD 18, SNP 12, UKIP 10, PC 3.
Now lets try to form a long term stable coalition with these numbers.
That looks a very plausible scenario to me, Speedy.
It would be very exciting for those of us who hold vouchers with William Hill at odds upwards of 8/1 that the result of the next GE will be 'Other' - i.e, a minority government.
I believe OGH has so many such vouchers that if this is the outcome, he'll presently be taking his hols in locations that will make even SeanT envious.
Hmph. Even as someone who was called a "deficit denier" on PB a few weeks ago, I agree with all 3 of the suggestions for cuts made on Newsnight (cuts to public-sector pay, pensions and Trident).
Well the morning thread was going to be about Scotland....
Now, what is a boy to do?
How about coalitions? At these numbers it is likely there can be no coalition between the largest parties and the LD, so how can they get a governing majority and with whom?
I guess that 'rainbow coalition' idea from 2010 will have to be dusted off. SNP-Lab-LD? That'd be fun given Lab losing seats to one and taking off seats from the other.
I'm guessing Lab on 327 though
If there's a coalition involving the SNP, what happens when its MPs refuse to vote on England matters in areas which are devolved to Scotland? That is its current stance.
Would there be a formal coalition agreement in the event of another hung parliament? The LDs could jump at the chance to be formally part of the government again, or they might be too shell shocked to want to risk that again, even if it is the 'correct' coalition with Labour, so might they not just prop up a minority government instead on a looser basis. I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats (up from my previous predictions of 0, admittedly), so I doubt they will come into it either way. The Tories could work with the DUP? I know they backed the UUP last time, but you work with who you've got.
Edit: And of course, far less urgent need for a coalition - sure there's loads of cutting to do, but the economy is doing better (superficially anyway, anytime I read economic analysis it seems like we're all doomed apparently due to systemic issues)
You’d forgotten about the Liberal Democrats, hadn’t you? You vaguely assumed that they must already have held their annual get-together somewhere, and that you had missed it. Once a fixed, if minor, part of the political calendar, the Lib Dem Conference has now become one of those conventions of interest only to devotees, like a Star Trek Society AGM.
“What’s the point of the Liberal Democrats?” other politicians used to ask, theatrically. Nowadays, they don’t bother. What’s the point?
The Lib Dems have lost their way, their purpose and their soul. They used to be the party of democratic radicalism, but Nick Clegg’s petulant U-turns – rejecting parliamentary recall and trying to blame others, refusing a referendum on Lords reform and thereby killing the measure, opposing the vote on the EU despite his promises – made clear to voters that he disdained them. Naturally enough, the appeal of the Lib Dems as a protest party has been taken over by UKIP.
The Lib Dems spent 50 years clambering back from their post-war nadir. From just 6 MPs through the 1950s, they grew to 9 in 1964, 14 in 1974, 23 in 1983, 46 in 1997 and 57 in 2010. Nick Clegg had taken his party back to a strength not seen since Lloyd George’s day.
This bit was OUCH.
Edmund Burke, perhaps the greatest of all the Whigs, had hard things to say about pulling down in half an hour what prudence, deliberation and foresight had built up in a hundred years. But even that great Irish seer, prophetic as he was, could not have foreseen the determined thoroughness with which Cleggie would pull down his party. He would have stared in horrified disbelief as a man elected on the basis of sanctimonious assurances that he would be more honest than his rivals promptly set about breaking all his cledges. (A cledge, regular readers will remember, is not just an unfulfilled promise; it is a commitment made in deliberately bad faith.)
Speedy But with no mandate at all, any case with the UKIP factor and the low LD vote I think UNS is much more variable than the headline figure. If Labour lacks a majority and is behind on popular vote the LDs and UKIP could well prop up the Tories
No chance for that, the constituency polls show that the least movement from LD to Tories are in LD seats so they will hold quite a few more than UNS predicts at Tory expense, also I can't see how the LD will prob a government along with UKIP and I can't see UKIP willing to prop Cameron or Cameron willing to accept their support.
However if the LD drop below 5% then UNS becomes much closer to reality for their position.
Well the morning thread was going to be about Scotland....
Now, what is a boy to do?
How about coalitions? At these numbers it is likely there can be no coalition between the largest parties and the LD, so how can they get a governing majority and with whom?
I guess that 'rainbow coalition' idea from 2010 will have to be dusted off. SNP-Lab-LD? That'd be fun given Lab losing seats to one and taking off seats from the other.
I'm guessing Lab on 327 though
If there's a coalition involving the SNP, what happens when its MPs refuse to vote on England matters in areas which are devolved to Scotland? That is its current stance.
Ah yes of course. Plaid Cymru? They would run into the situation less often, though they bring less seats to the table as well.
I don't really know why some people still seem to think Lab could have wrangled up a workable coalition last time given such difficulties.
Cross-over is far from sufficient. If the figures are anything like this in 2015 then Labour are home and dry.
That said, I actually think on this occasion it is not a case of a post-conference bounce that will vanish; there has been a significant change in perception, or perhaps realisation, that Ed really is not Prime Ministerial material. Add to that the inevitability that the polls will tighten dramatically over the coming months and I would not be surprised if the Conservatives get a lot more votes than Labour in 2015 now.
I just don't think that'll be enough for them and still expect Labour to be the largest party by some margin.
Speedy But with no mandate at all, any case with the UKIP factor and the low LD vote I think UNS is much more variable than the headline figure. If Labour lacks a majority and is behind on popular vote the LDs and UKIP could well prop up the Tories
Any coalition with LD and UKIP is pretty much unthinkable surely - what would the agreed EU position out of that lot be? Even a promise to hold a referendum wouldn't hold that unwieldy lot together! Anything other than the current coalition, Tory + LD + favourable NI Unionists or Lab + LD / Lab + LD + SNP / Lab + LD + SDLP / PC is pretty much unthinkable IMHO.
Lets make a scenario: On electoral calculus with this poll we have LAB 316, CON 296, LD 11, SNP 6, PC 3. Practically the LD are going to hold an extra 10 seats from the Tories and UKIP are probably going to elect 10 MP's too all of them from the Tories, also the SNP is going to gain a few LD and Labour seats lets say 3 from each , so the eventual number would be LAB 313, CON 276, LD 18, SNP 12, UKIP 10, PC 3.
Now lets try to form a long term stable coalition with these numbers.
Easy initially: Lab/Lib equals 331. But it'd be 1974-9 all over again. Ed would go rapidly into bye election loss territory virtually everywhere, and it would be a zoo quite quickly as his Left becomes grumpy as reality hits and Ed Balls points out ( well vaguely ) fiscal reality and Unite go ballistic.
Well the morning thread was going to be about Scotland....
Now, what is a boy to do?
How about coalitions? At these numbers it is likely there can be no coalition between the largest parties and the LD, so how can they get a governing majority and with whom?
I guess that 'rainbow coalition' idea from 2010 will have to be dusted off. SNP-Lab-LD? That'd be fun given Lab losing seats to one and taking off seats from the other.
I'm guessing Lab on 327 though
Since Cameron is like Ted Heath, it would be logical to end up with a Labour majority of 3, and Cameron being booted out because he is anti-UKIP at a time when the Tories would possibly need the support of UKIP MP's.
"I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats...."
None of the spread betting firms have put up odds yet, but if you think that I'd be happy to be a buyer at 6 - say £50 per seat. Every seat under 6 I give you £50.
Cross-over is far from sufficient. If the figures are anything like this in 2015 then Labour are home and dry.
That said, I actually think on this occasion it is not a case of a post-conference bounce that will vanish; there has been a significant change in perception, or perhaps realisation, that Ed really is not Prime Ministerial material. Add to that the inevitability that the polls will tighten dramatically over the coming months and I would not be surprised if the Conservatives get a lot more votes than Labour in 2015 now.
I just don't think that'll be enough for them and still expect Labour to be the largest party by some margin.
Lets make a scenario: On electoral calculus with this poll we have LAB 316, CON 296, LD 11, SNP 6, PC 3. Practically the LD are going to hold an extra 10 seats from the Tories and UKIP are probably going to elect 10 MP's too all of them from the Tories, also the SNP is going to gain a few LD and Labour seats lets say 3 from each , so the eventual number would be LAB 313, CON 276, LD 18, SNP 12, UKIP 10, PC 3.
Now lets try to form a long term stable coalition with these numbers.
Why not Lab/LD? That's 331, and with the SNP and PC going to be generally sympathetic to a progressive government, only foreign policy looks likely to be a potential coalition-breaker.
You’d forgotten about the Liberal Democrats, hadn’t you? You vaguely assumed that they must already have held their annual get-together somewhere, and that you had missed it. Once a fixed, if minor, part of the political calendar, the Lib Dem Conference has now become one of those conventions of interest only to devotees, like a Star Trek Society AGM.
“What’s the point of the Liberal Democrats?” other politicians used to ask, theatrically. Nowadays, they don’t bother. What’s the point?
The Lib Dems have lost their way, their purpose and their soul. They used to be the party of democratic radicalism, but Nick Clegg’s petulant U-turns – rejecting parliamentary recall and trying to blame others, refusing a referendum on Lords reform and thereby killing the measure, opposing the vote on the EU despite his promises – made clear to voters that he disdained them. Naturally enough, the appeal of the Lib Dems as a protest party has been taken over by UKIP.
The Lib Dems spent 50 years clambering back from their post-war nadir. From just 6 MPs through the 1950s, they grew to 9 in 1964, 14 in 1974, 23 in 1983, 46 in 1997 and 57 in 2010. Nick Clegg had taken his party back to a strength not seen since Lloyd George’s day.
This bit was OUCH.
Edmund Burke, perhaps the greatest of all the Whigs, had hard things to say about pulling down in half an hour what prudence, deliberation and foresight had built up in a hundred years. But even that great Irish seer, prophetic as he was, could not have foreseen the determined thoroughness with which Cleggie would pull down his party. He would have stared in horrified disbelief as a man elected on the basis of sanctimonious assurances that he would be more honest than his rivals promptly set about breaking all his cledges. (A cledge, regular readers will remember, is not just an unfulfilled promise; it is a commitment made in deliberately bad faith.)
He's just feeling smug - this is something the big two have dreamed about ever since the LDs started really hitting their majority sizes, and the argument 'what are the LDs for?' is the same as the big two have ever used and by changing a few specific details could I'm sure have been rolled out at any time in recent decades, it just hits home harder given the parlous state of the LD polling.
Cross-over is far from sufficient. If the figures are anything like this in 2015 then Labour are home and dry.
That said, I actually think on this occasion it is not a case of a post-conference bounce that will vanish; there has been a significant change in perception, or perhaps realisation, that Ed really is not Prime Ministerial material. Add to that the inevitability that the polls will tighten dramatically over the coming months and I would not be surprised if the Conservatives get a lot more votes than Labour in 2015 now.
I just don't think that'll be enough for them and still expect Labour to be the largest party by some margin.
hunchman/speedy I think a Tory LD coalition again now looks the most feasible, Clegg is hardly going to back up Miliband and Balls when they have no majority and are behind on popular vote and have trashed everything the Coalition has done. UKIP could agree not to vote against the government on a confidence vote in return for an EU referendum enshrined in law. Don't forget shy Tories either, especially after indyref
It looks like Ed isn't going to win a majority. If he's not ahead now there's not much chance of him being ahead in 7 months' time. I'd bet quite a large sum that he won't reach 326 seats.
I'm betting the house on it. I closed out all my Labour majority positions last night. Now all in on hung parliament, and building up a nice pot on Con majority as well.
One Labour chap has just asked me, should he be worried that Labour are only gaining votes where they already have MPs?
Yes. Have thought that for a long time. They will gain the most votes where it doesn't matter. Hence the 7% lead in the national polls is bogus.
Otherwise known as 'preaching to the converted' - Labour's whole 35% strategy is effectively that, without a care in the world where their vote is distributed.
Given Miliband's track record, I think its hard to see him not putting his foot in it in a very big way at some point over a 4 week campaign. Even if Labour start off with a lead, I can't see anything other than a net movement away from them over the course of the GE campaign.
I agree totally, it may have already started though hard to judge in Conference season. When the public at large see him in the debates, and much is made of the EV4EL together with the possibility of losing seats in Scotland I can see the Tories getting the most seats.
It looks like Ed isn't going to win a majority. If he's not ahead now there's not much chance of him being ahead in 7 months' time. I'd bet quite a large sum that he won't reach 326 seats.
I've been saying that for year.
Hung Parliament is obviously odds on - Question is will it be Con most votes and seat? Or Lab most votes and seats? Of some other combinations (Con most votes, Lab most seats, etc...)
It's also possible we could get pretty much a "tied" outcome (say both on 290) with the Lib-Dems not holding enough seats to form a coalition with anybody - Pick the bones out of that one!
Con minority government, go to the polls in six months.
There is an extremely good value bet on that at Ladbrokes. I've been trying to share the tip with punters for over a week, but it's stuck in the 'thread queue'!
It looks like Ed isn't going to win a majority. If he's not ahead now there's not much chance of him being ahead in 7 months' time. I'd bet quite a large sum that he won't reach 326 seats.
I've been saying that for years.
Hung Parliament is obviously odds on - Question is will it be Con most votes and seats? Or Lab most votes and seats? Of some other combination (Con most votes, Lab most seats, etc...)
It's also possible we could get pretty much a "tied" outcome (say both on 290) with the Lib-Dems not holding enough seats to form a coalition with anybody - Pick the bones out of that one!
Dan Hodges is right, Labour still don't get it. Poor Stella Creasy is now spinning Labour's big response to Cameron's speech, panicky claims that the Tories will raise VAT after the GE. Oh wait, haven't we heard that one from Ed Balls before...
" Ukip’s “rising tide” already poses a “very serious” threat to Labour’s hopes in 22 key marginal constituencies the party hopes to win, while the Tories are under serious threat in only 11 key seats.
In total, there are 59 seats where a surge in Ukip support has the potential to seriously impair Labour’s prospects, including 39 Conservative-Labour marginals. Although Mr Farage’s party could potentially damage Tory prospects in 67 seats, only 13 of these are Tory-held seats on Labour’s target list."
Quite a difference compared with just 10 days ago when I suggested backing SNP to win >7.5 GE seats at evens. This bet proved to be free money. Hope some of you got on.
"I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats...."
None of the spread betting firms have put up odds yet, but if you think that I'd be happy to be a buyer at 6 - say £50 per seat. Every seat under 6 I give you £50.
Yes?
I'm afraid I could not afford to reciprocate at such a level should I be proven wrong (and I did just call the Indy ref wrong by 8 points), eg. for every seat over 5, I give you £50.
I am a mere novice at such a bet, but for the fun times how about £20 for every seat under 6, and in return £20 for every seat over 5 up to a max of 10 seats (about all I could afford to risk)?
Thanks to those of you welcoming me. I'm not sure what the etiquette is on replying just to say thanks for the welcome, so I'll post my thoughts on the implications of that Middleton poll as well so that this isn't marked as spam:
One thing that tends to be ignored re: UKIP I think is the implications for elections beyond 2015.
If UKIP win seats in 2015 (looks like they'll get at least one - Clacton - and stand a very good chance in 3 others at least - Boston, South Thanet, Rochester - and an ok chance in a handful of other seats) AND establish themselves in a dozen or more constituencies as the second party (and thus the main opposition in those constituencies) then 4 party politics really is here to stay.
Places like Middleton may never be realistic goals for them, but polls like this certainly indicate that in a number constituencies they're going to be second in 2015 and will then be in with a shot of getting those seats in 2020 (or earlier, if we end up with some sort of minority or other unstable gov after the election).
Dan Hodges is right, Labour still don't get it. Poor Stella Creasy is now spinning Labour's big response to Cameron's speech, panicky claims that the Tories will raise VAT after the GE. Oh wait, haven't we heard that one from Ed Balls before...
He was right wasnt he went up from 17.5 to 20 didnt it?
On the SNAFU blog there is a picture of a young Christian girl murdered by ISIL - don't ordinary Muslims realise how dangerous their support of ISIL is to their own safety from a world who has begun to hate them.
One Labour chap has just asked me, should he be worried that Labour are only gaining votes where they already have MPs?
Yes. Have thought that for a long time. They will gain the most votes where it doesn't matter. Hence the 7% lead in the national polls is bogus.
Where are you thinking?
Sorry, didn't explain that very well. I mean Labour will disproportionately put on votes in seats that they already hold, particularly in urban areas, such that the Conservatives won't need the full 2010 GE lead of 7% over Labour to win. This is in contrast to Blair, who was highly efficient with his votes in marginal seats.
I expect Cameron will turn out to be surprisingly efficient too.
One Labour chap has just asked me, should he be worried that Labour are only gaining votes where they already have MPs?
Yes. Have thought that for a long time. They will gain the most votes where it doesn't matter. Hence the 7% lead in the national polls is bogus.
Where are you thinking?
Sorry, didn't explain that very well. I mean Labour will disproportionately put on votes in seats that they already hold, particularly in urban areas, such that the Conservatives won't need the full 2010 GE lead of 7% over Labour to win. This is in contrast to Blair, who was highly efficient with his votes in marginal seats.
I expect Cameron will turn out to be surprisingly efficient too.
I'm not sure Labour will do that well with their own seats. Remember one of Ed's biggest problems is he doesn't even convince all his own supporters. Many may stay at home.
Dan Hodges is right, Labour still don't get it. Poor Stella Creasy is now spinning Labour's big response to Cameron's speech, panicky claims that the Tories will raise VAT after the GE. Oh wait, haven't we heard that one from Ed Balls before...
He was right wasnt he went up from 17.5 to 20 didnt it?
It did. And they raised it following 1992 GE too after denying they would.
Did your knuckles drag when you posted that? Trident E5 will go in 2040: So what? You really need to keep up with defence, development and obfuscation young pup....
Here's one of my 'cuts' -I floated this yesterday but no-one took me up (I'll stop soon).
Abolish vehicle excise duty. Add it on to fuel duty. Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks. Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Someone posted here earlier that we currently run a balance of payments deficit of 90 billion a year. That should have us running for the hills in terror.
"I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats...."
None of the spread betting firms have put up odds yet, but if you think that I'd be happy to be a buyer at 6 - say £50 per seat. Every seat under 6 I give you £50.
Yes?
I'm afraid I could not afford to reciprocate at such a level should I be proven wrong (and I did just call the Indy ref wrong by 8 points), eg. for every seat over 5, I give you £50.
I am a mere novice at such a bet, but for the fun times how about £20 for every seat under 6, and in return £20 for every seat over 5 up to a max of 10 seats (about all I could afford to risk)?
Yes, that effectively sets the stop-loss at £100 both ways, which seems fair enough and not a million miles out from what the fixed odds bookies are touting.
The address is arklebar@gmail.com and I'll get back to you tomorrow.
One Labour chap has just asked me, should he be worried that Labour are only gaining votes where they already have MPs?
Yes. Have thought that for a long time. They will gain the most votes where it doesn't matter. Hence the 7% lead in the national polls is bogus.
Where are you thinking?
Sorry, didn't explain that very well. I mean Labour will disproportionately put on votes in seats that they already hold, particularly in urban areas, such that the Conservatives won't need the full 2010 GE lead of 7% over Labour to win. This is in contrast to Blair, who was highly efficient with his votes in marginal seats.
I expect Cameron will turn out to be surprisingly efficient too.
I'm not sure Labour will do that well with their own seats. Remember one of Ed's biggest problems is he doesn't even convince all his own supporters. Many may stay at home.
Doubtful I think Ed is indeed pretty Crap but in a close election lots of LAB voters will be extremely keen to stick with LAB to try to get rid of the Tories.
Really disappointed with Newsnight. Special piece on spending cuts yet nothing on the possibility of tax rises. And people accuse the BBC of being left wing. Unbelievable.
On the SNAFU blog there is a picture of a young Christian girl murdered by ISIL - don't ordinary Muslims realise how dangerous their support of ISIL is to their own safety from a world who has begun to hate them.
It beggars belief that young British Muslims can surf the net and not get this side of the story before they sign up. They are either unwilling to see, or actually like what they see.
Really disappointed with Newsnight. Special piece on spending cuts yet nothing on the possibility of tax rises. And people accuse the BBC of being left wing. Unbelievable.
Think it was trying to show that £38bn plus Daves promised tax cuts of £7bn means £45BN cuts is a massive challenge.
Do all 3 of the below and still nowhere near enough
8% cut in all public sector workers pay inc army, police maths teachers.
" Ukip’s “rising tide” already poses a “very serious” threat to Labour’s hopes in 22 key marginal constituencies the party hopes to win, while the Tories are under serious threat in only 11 key seats.
In total, there are 59 seats where a surge in Ukip support has the potential to seriously impair Labour’s prospects, including 39 Conservative-Labour marginals. Although Mr Farage’s party could potentially damage Tory prospects in 67 seats, only 13 of these are Tory-held seats on Labour’s target list."
"I want a party that gives both economic realism and compassion". No s**t. Anyone would want that if it was on offer. The reason it's not on offer is because one makes the other impossible -- so-called economic realism/credibility means there isn't enough money to go around for compassion for the poor. Atleast us hard-lefties are honest enough to say that if the poor are to be helped, other people (namely the rich) will have to lose out, but these pious "centrists"/liberals live in a fantasyland where it's possible for all the benefits without even the trade-offs or losses.
"I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats...."
None of the spread betting firms have put up odds yet, but if you think that I'd be happy to be a buyer at 6 - say £50 per seat. Every seat under 6 I give you £50.
Yes?
I'm afraid I could not afford to reciprocate at such a level should I be proven wrong (and I did just call the Indy ref wrong by 8 points), eg. for every seat over 5, I give you £50.
I am a mere novice at such a bet, but for the fun times how about £20 for every seat under 6, and in return £20 for every seat over 5 up to a max of 10 seats (about all I could afford to risk)?
Yes, that effectively sets the stop-loss at £100 both ways, which seems fair enough and not a million miles out from what the fixed odds bookies are touting.
The address is arklebar@gmail.com and I'll get back to you tomorrow.
Luckyguy1983 - the structural deficit is £25 billion
Thanks -but I believe the balance of payments is different? The difference between the money the economy brings in and what we pay out? It's been a long time since I've done any economics -my definition could be faulty.
Here's one of my 'cuts' -I floated this yesterday but no-one took me up (I'll stop soon).
Abolish vehicle excise duty. Add it on to fuel duty. Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks. Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Why not use the redundant facility to quietly move civil service functions from Scotland to England? It'd save us a couple of things to worry about come the next IndyRef.
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago Recount announced for Westoe (South Tyneside) by-election. Understood to be a fight between Labour and UKIP. Expand
I think I saw somewhere recently - no source to hand, so it may be rubbish - that 48% of Labour party members are found in London. If that is true (or anything like), it explains a lot about the current direction of the Labour party.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 4m 4 minutes ago Recount announced for Westoe (South Tyneside) by-election. Understood to be a fight between Labour and UKIP
I've been reminded of some of the horrific things the Mujaheddin did to the Soviet soldiers when they invaded Afghanistan - as a taste of things to come.
One famous tale told to new troops arriving in Bagram was that several of their colleagues had been captured and whilst still alive - had the skin across their stomach sliced and then dragged over their heads and tied like sacks. The bodies were found nr the runway.
There's nothing new about the barbarity of fundamentalist Muslims - there's another story told by a Soviet reporter who was trapped in the Kabul Hotel with two dozen others and their biggest fear was that the single grenade they had wouldn't be enough to kill themselves and that they'd fall into the hands of what Jimmy Carter referred to as *freedom fighters*.
The more I read about what went on then - it beggars belief that we haven't taken all this onboard re IS a lot sooner and tried appeasement for too long.
On the SNAFU blog there is a picture of a young Christian girl murdered by ISIL - don't ordinary Muslims realise how dangerous their support of ISIL is to their own safety from a world who has begun to hate them.
It beggars belief that young British Muslims can surf the net and not get this side of the story before they sign up. They are either unwilling to see, or actually like what they see.
Again, you just don't get it. Same old tired Labour policies and tactics, they simple don't have anything new to say. I mean, that's it, that is all Labour have in defence of that Cameron speech yesterday, the Tories will put up VAT? As if that was going to vaporise the whole policy content and Cameron's clear intent to appeal to aspirational striver's? Did Labour even get past their own prejudices and listen to the full content of that speech? Or, did it just fail to compute entirely, leaving a sad looking error threat flashing up a VAT increase?
Dan Hodges is right, Labour still don't get it. Poor Stella Creasy is now spinning Labour's big response to Cameron's speech, panicky claims that the Tories will raise VAT after the GE. Oh wait, haven't we heard that one from Ed Balls before...
He was right wasnt he went up from 17.5 to 20 didnt it?
Here's one of my 'cuts' -I floated this yesterday but no-one took me up (I'll stop soon).
Abolish vehicle excise duty. Add it on to fuel duty. Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks. Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Someone posted here earlier that we currently run a balance of payments deficit of 90 billion a year. That should have us running for the hills in terror.
That was me.
Here's a crossover to consider - will the BoP deficit go over £100bn before the government deficit falls below £100bn ?
The BoP SHOULD have us running for the hills in terror but it wont.
It's a commonplace saying that the NHS is the nearest thing the British people have to a religion.
It isn't.
The true religion of the British people is the belief in the magic money tree.
Really disappointed with Newsnight. Special piece on spending cuts yet nothing on the possibility of tax rises. And people accuse the BBC of being left wing. Unbelievable.
Think it was trying to show that £38bn plus Daves promised tax cuts of £7bn means £45BN cuts is a massive challenge.
Do all 3 of the below and still nowhere near enough
8% cut in all public sector workers pay inc army, police maths teachers.
Scrap Trdent
Cut Pensions and other oldie benefits
Selling off the BBC and privatising the NHS and the education system would net us some decent money up front, save a fortune on-going, and improve services immensely. Triple result!
Here's one of my 'cuts' -I floated this yesterday but no-one took me up (I'll stop soon).
Abolish vehicle excise duty. Add it on to fuel duty. Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks. Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Why not use the redundant facility to quietly move civil service functions from Scotland to England? It'd save us a couple of things to worry about come the next IndyRef.
Thanks for getting on board -interesting suggestion, but I don't think there will be another one. Certainly they won't allow one for another 18 years or so. Switching the jobs would cause unemployment in Scotland, which for the time being would still negatively affect the wider economy and tax base.
Lack of support for Britain by the Government in terms of its own economic activity in these desperate economic times amounts to nothing more or less than deliberate betrayal. Planes trains, automobiles, and everything in between is made abroad. This simply has to stop.
"I want a party that gives both economic realism and compassion". No s**t. Anyone would want that if it was on offer. The reason it's not on offer is because one makes the other impossible -- so-called economic realism/credibility means there isn't enough money to go around for compassion for the poor. Atleast us hard-lefties are honest enough to say that if the poor are to be helped, other people (namely the rich) will have to lose out, but these pious "centrists"/liberals live in a fantasyland where it's possible for all the benefits without even the trade-offs or losses.
Really disappointed with Newsnight. Special piece on spending cuts yet nothing on the possibility of tax rises. And people accuse the BBC of being left wing. Unbelievable.
Think it was trying to show that £38bn plus Daves promised tax cuts of £7bn means £45BN cuts is a massive challenge.
Do all 3 of the below and still nowhere near enough
8% cut in all public sector workers pay inc army, police maths teachers.
Scrap Trdent
Cut Pensions and other oldie benefits
Selling off the BBC and privatising the NHS and the education system would net us some decent money up front, save a fortune on-going, and improve services immensely. Triple result!
Here's one of my 'cuts' -I floated this yesterday but no-one took me up (I'll stop soon).
Abolish vehicle excise duty. Add it on to fuel duty. Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks. Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Someone posted here earlier that we currently run a balance of payments deficit of 90 billion a year. That should have us running for the hills in terror.
That was me.
Here's a crossover to consider - will the BoP deficit go over £100bn before the government deficit falls below £100bn ?
The BoP SHOULD have us running for the hills in terror but it wont.
It's a commonplace saying that the NHS is the nearest thing the British people have to a religion.
It isn't.
The true religion of the British people is the belief in the magic money tree.
No comment, I'm to terrified to think what will happen when the bubble pops.
Initially Stella Creasey seemed pretty on the ball, for whatever reason - she's become an ego on legs. Her behaviour on Twitter is often really off-putting, very smug and rude [she thought I was a man and golly...]
Her involvement in the smugfest that was TwitterSilence when she couldn't even stay off it for 24hrs despite exhorting her support just convinced me that she's swallowed her own PR and is still drunk on it.
Really disappointed with Newsnight. Special piece on spending cuts yet nothing on the possibility of tax rises. And people accuse the BBC of being left wing. Unbelievable.
Think it was trying to show that £38bn plus Daves promised tax cuts of £7bn means £45BN cuts is a massive challenge.
Do all 3 of the below and still nowhere near enough
8% cut in all public sector workers pay inc army, police maths teachers.
Scrap Trdent
Cut Pensions and other oldie benefits
Selling off the BBC and privatising the NHS and the education system would net us some decent money up front, save a fortune on-going, and improve services immensely. Triple result!
It's only socialism that's holding us back.
I hope Tories stand on this Manifesto
They won't, of course. But I'd vote for anyone who did.
Comments
It would be very exciting for those of us who hold vouchers with William Hill at odds upwards of 8/1 that the result of the next GE will be 'Other' - i.e, a minority government.
I believe OGH has so many such vouchers that if this is the outcome, he'll presently be taking his hols in locations that will make even SeanT envious.
Edit: And of course, far less urgent need for a coalition - sure there's loads of cutting to do, but the economy is doing better (superficially anyway, anytime I read economic analysis it seems like we're all doomed apparently due to systemic issues) Seconded.
However if the LD drop below 5% then UNS becomes much closer to reality for their position.
I don't really know why some people still seem to think Lab could have wrangled up a workable coalition last time given such difficulties.
Cross-over is far from sufficient. If the figures are anything like this in 2015 then Labour are home and dry.
That said, I actually think on this occasion it is not a case of a post-conference bounce that will vanish; there has been a significant change in perception, or perhaps realisation, that Ed really is not Prime Ministerial material. Add to that the inevitability that the polls will tighten dramatically over the coming months and I would not be surprised if the Conservatives get a lot more votes than Labour in 2015 now.
I just don't think that'll be enough for them and still expect Labour to be the largest party by some margin.
"I would not guess UKIP could get more than 5 seats...."
None of the spread betting firms have put up odds yet, but if you think that I'd be happy to be a buyer at 6 - say £50 per seat. Every seat under 6 I give you £50.
Yes?
IIRC when Cameron did his Vetogasm speech - that lasted for several weeks.
I think you're right, this speech/the coverage it got afterwards has really helped to shift a few perceptions the right way for the Tories.
Building on it now is the tough bit.
Not sure 7/2 is value but needs consideration.
http://io9.com/5844988/the-10-types-of-writers-block-and-how-to-overcome-them
" Ukip’s “rising tide” already poses a “very serious” threat to Labour’s hopes in 22 key marginal constituencies the party hopes to win, while the Tories are under serious threat in only 11 key seats.
In total, there are 59 seats where a surge in Ukip support has the potential to seriously impair Labour’s prospects, including 39 Conservative-Labour marginals. Although Mr Farage’s party could potentially damage Tory prospects in 67 seats, only 13 of these are Tory-held seats on Labour’s target list."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-is-serious-threat-to-ed-milibands-chances-of-a-labour-victory-at-the-next-general-election-former-aide-warns-9770790.html
Ladbrokes latest odds:
SNP GE Seats (Over/Under)
Over 10.5 ....... 8/11
Under 10.5 .... 11/10
Quite a difference compared with just 10 days ago when I suggested backing SNP to win >7.5 GE seats at evens. This bet proved to be free money. Hope some of you got on.
I am a mere novice at such a bet, but for the fun times how about £20 for every seat under 6, and in return £20 for every seat over 5 up to a max of 10 seats (about all I could afford to risk)?
Some very interesting Times/YouGov polling on Dave's speech and other things
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/By-VGtsIcAAcRTz.png
One thing that tends to be ignored re: UKIP I think is the implications for elections beyond 2015.
If UKIP win seats in 2015 (looks like they'll get at least one - Clacton - and stand a very good chance in 3 others at least - Boston, South Thanet, Rochester - and an ok chance in a handful of other seats) AND establish themselves in a dozen or more constituencies as the second party (and thus the main opposition in those constituencies) then 4 party politics really is here to stay.
Places like Middleton may never be realistic goals for them, but polls like this certainly indicate that in a number constituencies they're going to be second in 2015 and will then be in with a shot of getting those seats in 2020 (or earlier, if we end up with some sort of minority or other unstable gov after the election).
I expect Cameron will turn out to be surprisingly efficient too.
Abolish vehicle excise duty.
Add it on to fuel duty.
Use the redundant facility for administering VED to repatriate all the administrative jobs that are currently being done in India for the nationalised banks.
Thus saving money now, and going forward. Saving people's time and effort. And not losing any jobs.
Someone posted here earlier that we currently run a balance of payments deficit of 90 billion a year. That should have us running for the hills in terror.
The address is arklebar@gmail.com and I'll get back to you tomorrow.
Cheers.
Both extremely patronising, middle class, London sorts.
There has been a coup within the Labour Party. The people on QT are in Northampton. Not London, not the grim North, but the epitome of the middle.
And god, they're angry.
http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/culture/exclusive-qa-with-former-islamic-state-member_26696
It beggars belief that young British Muslims can surf the net and not get this side of the story before they sign up. They are either unwilling to see, or actually like what they see.
Bob Crow knew the score about the EU and will be turning in his grave at Mullins being invited on QT, purely self interest
Do all 3 of the below and still nowhere near enough
8% cut in all public sector workers pay inc army, police maths teachers.
Scrap Trdent
Cut Pensions and other oldie benefits
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4223983.ece
"I want a party that gives both economic realism and compassion". No s**t. Anyone would want that if it was on offer. The reason it's not on offer is because one makes the other impossible -- so-called economic realism/credibility means there isn't enough money to go around for compassion for the poor. Atleast us hard-lefties are honest enough to say that if the poor are to be helped, other people (namely the rich) will have to lose out, but these pious "centrists"/liberals live in a fantasyland where it's possible for all the benefits without even the trade-offs or losses.
Llandaff North (Cardiff):
Labour HOLD.
Recount announced for Westoe (South Tyneside) by-election. Understood to be a fight between Labour and UKIP.
Expand
Llandaff North (Cardiff) vote result:
LAB - 898
IND - 419
UKIP - 204
CON - 136
LDEM - 134
Britain Elects @britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
Llandaff North (Cardiff) result:
LAB - 50.1% (+2.7)
IND - 23.4% (+0.2)
UKIP - 11.4% (+11.4)
CON - 7.6% (+1.7)
LDEM - 7.5% (-6.8)
LAB - 50.1% (+2.7)
IND - 23.4% (+0.2)
UKIP - 11.4% (+11.4)
CON - 7.6% (+1.7)
LDEM - 7.5% (-6.8)
Grange Park (South Northants.):
CON HOLD (X2).
Britain Elects @britainelects · 4m 4 minutes ago
Recount announced for Westoe (South Tyneside) by-election. Understood to be a fight between Labour and UKIP
One famous tale told to new troops arriving in Bagram was that several of their colleagues had been captured and whilst still alive - had the skin across their stomach sliced and then dragged over their heads and tied like sacks. The bodies were found nr the runway.
There's nothing new about the barbarity of fundamentalist Muslims - there's another story told by a Soviet reporter who was trapped in the Kabul Hotel with two dozen others and their biggest fear was that the single grenade they had wouldn't be enough to kill themselves and that they'd fall into the hands of what Jimmy Carter referred to as *freedom fighters*.
The more I read about what went on then - it beggars belief that we haven't taken all this onboard re IS a lot sooner and tried appeasement for too long.
Grange Park (South Northants.):
CON HOLD (X2).
Grange Park (S-Northants.) result:
CON - 63.3% (-11.8)
LAB - 22.1% (+22.1)
UKIP - 14.6% (+14.6)
Here's a crossover to consider - will the BoP deficit go over £100bn before the government deficit falls below £100bn ?
The BoP SHOULD have us running for the hills in terror but it wont.
It's a commonplace saying that the NHS is the nearest thing the British people have to a religion.
It isn't.
The true religion of the British people is the belief in the magic money tree.
It's only socialism that's holding us back.
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 818
Conservative Party 371
Labour Party 966
Lack of support for Britain by the Government in terms of its own economic activity in these desperate economic times amounts to nothing more or less than deliberate betrayal. Planes trains, automobiles, and everything in between is made abroad. This simply has to stop.
IIRC the readers of The Times gave her a giant raspberry for that column. And rightly so.
Westoe (South Tyneside):
UKIP GAIN from Independent.
Expand
Britain Elects @britainelects · 56s 57 seconds ago
Westoe (South Tyneside):
UKIP GAIN from Independent.
UKIP GAIN from Independent.”
A PM EdM will make Francois Hollande look respected and popular in comparison.
What do they teach on that Oxford PPE course ?
Woodside (Haringey) result:
LAB - 56.3% (-0.8)
LDEM - 20.4% (+8.6)
GRN - 8.1% (-3.4)
UKIP - 6.8% (-0.5)
CON - 5.9% (-1.7)
IND - 1.0%
Her involvement in the smugfest that was TwitterSilence when she couldn't even stay off it for 24hrs despite exhorting her support just convinced me that she's swallowed her own PR and is still drunk on it.
Westoe (South Tyneside) result:
UKIP - 40.9% (+40.9)
LAB - 37.9% (+2.2)
CON - 13.3% (+1.6)
LDEM - 2.5% (-0.2)
GRN - 5.5% (-0.4)