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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable L
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable Labour hold
I think Labour will be relieved, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories.
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Also, Labour is first !!
Also, who are these people continuing to turn away from the LDs when 6 months ago they were still willing to support them?
UKIP will be satisfied with the big increase and the chance to say the Tory vote prevented them from winning, not the other way around, but it would have been interesting to see Labour actually threatened. Their seats to vote ration could be ridiculous.
Lots of Ed and lots of Dave = increases in the Tory vote and a decrease in Labour's vote.
Also there seems there is little the Tories can do to shift that 15% who vote UKIP towards them.
On the basis of this, it's good news for Mr. Reckless.
Frankly, I do not believe all these "local" strength stories. Numbers finally begins to tell it's own story.
:too-early-to-tell:
The thing I think it does show, actually I think any lead is very soft, and I wouldn't be surprised if come the GE we end up with 34/36 or 35/35, but I can't see how the Tories are going to get to that 6+% lead they need (especially as Tories are still a total write off Scotland and North East) and UKIP will hoover up a decent % of right wing votes.
From the previous thread....
Have you considered Elba too? Is very easy to get to from Pisa- go to nearby Livorno and take an hour's ferry, you can combine it with Tuscany (Florence, Sienna, Lucca), and in May or September is better value with some good hotel deals, and of course quieter- and the weather is great then. Plus Pinosa- a nearby ex Prison island is one of the most beautiful and unspoilt Islands in the world. Crystal blue seas full of fish. And the food.....the Maremma whites that polish the fish down nicely. Take a leisurely seafood tasting lunch menu with 1.5 bottles of white (1 isn't enough) after a morning on the beach- you will never nap better and wake up so refreshed to start again in the evening. Bliss. The perfect day.
That said, Sardinia is pretty damn special- all of it, and Sicily is magical. And neither are expensive- unless you go to Porto Cervo in Sardinia which is full of the most ridiculously unstylish Ruskies.
Sod the bus passes, the politicians should have offered OAP's two weeks at an Italian seaside resort, food and drink included. Would have saved the NHS a fortune.
Wheras next week Tories lose the lead and Clacton By-Election
LAD regain the lead and win in H&M methinks
:lord-have-mercy:
Get out that Technicolor Blue for the bar chart without delay.
BTW Lord Ashcroft's poll earlier in the week actually shows a Con majority too, if you look at the tables.
Con 32
Lab 31
UKIP 16
LD 9
TSE can you concur?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-140929-Full-tables.pdf
"On the basis of this, it's good news for Mr. Reckless."
That's the main betting pointer I would read into these two polls.
UKIP won't take Heywood but it looks like they will run a decent second with the rest nowhere. That suggests a pretty decent general level of support, enough to carry Reckless over the line in due course.
The YouGov poll is good for Dave, but not good enough to shift the odds more than a decimal point or two. He really needs to follow up with solid by-election results next week, but that's not looking very likely on the latest figures.
antifrank said:
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It's one poll, in the middle of conference season. Let's have a look in a month's time.
If David Cameron has anyone to thank for this polling bump, he might want to think about thanking Nigel Farage, who in his determination to upstage the Tory party conference ensured that quite a few more people were paying attention to it than would usually be the case.
That's rather mean-spirited of you antifrank - how about giving giving himself a huge pat on the back for the best party leader's speech for a generation?
Anyway, its double Yippee from me as it's finally time for Paddy Power to pay up, a year after I placed my bet on a Tory lead in H2 2014.
There fizzy stuff around in this part of South West London tonight, I can tell you!
What I felt worked especially was the way it was sliced up into soundbite sized chunks. Not just a couple of lines - but very short paragraphs that summed up a point made succinctly.
Much better than EdM's peculiar meter / full of / odd / pauses for / effect / so that you / forget / what / the point / was.
What interests me is that Clegg and co will surely be ousted post 2015 (though he's proven me wrong so far, although my latest latest prediction of when he would go was end of 2014, so there's time), but many of that ilk might be among the MPs left, and a higher proportion than they were before, which will be awkward.
The Heywood & Middleton poll tonight is fascinating. Will do one myself methinks.....
Now, what is a boy to do?
Not that that leaves us in a very cheerful position anyway.
Hung Parliament is obviously odds on - Question is will it be Con most votes and seats? Or Lab most votes and seats? Of some other combination (Con most votes, Lab most seats, etc...)
It's also possible we could get pretty much a "tied" outcome (say both on 290) with the Lib-Dems not holding enough seats to form a coalition with anybody - Pick the bones out of that one!
At these numbers it is likely there can be no coalition between the largest parties and the LD, so how can they get a governing majority and with whom?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
The number of 3 way marginals there is frightening to put it mildly. I can't wait for the drama that Scotland is likely to provide in 7 months time, particularly if it deprives Miliband of a majority.
As for tonight's poll, already Cameron's claim of go to bed with Farage, wake up with Miliband is proven not to be true. Lets see where it all settles down again in a fortnights time, including Scotland.
Racking up bundles in places they've already won - like Heywood and Middleton - while losing seats in places where they poll 30%+ - like Scotland.
I've also bet that DC won't either.
Without this, he's likely to be showing quite Labour taking quite a marked lead.
Something for him to contemplate over his cornflakes perhaps?
NOM should be odds on, but it isn't. Take it.
So, Ed needs to win 73 in England.
It isn't happening.
The best he can hope for is more than Cameron.
I still can't get over that he left the deficit out. Just stunning subconscious stuff going on there.
And then claiming he forgot. As Cameron pointed out, you forget your car keys or your homework - not BILLIONS.
The Middleton poll however surely has great significance in that it implies that the public are squeezing the parties they think stand in the way of stopping UKIP. The tory vote could disappear altogether and it would be meaningless if it went to Labour. The bulk of the LD GE2010 vote must have gone to propping up Labour.
On electoral calculus with this poll we have LAB 316, CON 296, LD 11, SNP 6, PC 3.
Practically the LD are going to hold an extra 10 seats from the Tories and UKIP are probably going to elect 10 MP's too all of them from the Tories, also the SNP is going to gain a few LD and Labour seats lets say 3 from each , so the eventual number would be LAB 313, CON 276, LD 18, SNP 12, UKIP 10, PC 3.
Now lets try to form a long term stable coalition with these numbers.
I'm guessing Lab on 327 though
What this shows is how soft support is. This is the effect from 3 days of set piece promotion, to which very little public attention is paid, and very few media hours are expended (in comparison to an election campaign). An election is 4 weeks. There is all to play for and no result of Labour or Tory most / least / majority can be discounted yet.
I shall be kinder. David Cameron gave a technically quite outstanding speech yesterday. It was probably his best ever, in circumstances where giving a great speech was really important.
It's entirely possible that if he'd given a forgettable speech we'd have seen another defection last night to UKIP. The Conservatives would then have looked marooned by the maroons and heading for near-certain defeat.
Yesterday really mattered. And David Cameron really rose to it, giving as good a personal credo as I can recall any Prime Minister giving.
From a Conservative perspective, it is absolutely essential that they now hammer home their message day after day until May 2015. That is something that they have by and large failed to do for the last few years. Perhaps they will sharpen up their act on this front. Perhaps.
I vote for oldies to take their share of the pain
That's why I advise patience.
Con most votes, Lab most seats?
Mixed polls for Lab - good one for H&M, poor YouGov