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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early front pages look good for Dave

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  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    They can see, but only superficially, it works best if they don't look too closely.
    (you are aware that the last post was ironic?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy If it doesn't it doesn't and we are where we are, Labour got no poll bounce from their conference certainly. However, if this Tory bounce is confirmed off the back of Cameron's speech a key moment in the campaign will have been reached
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    There are too many Bush videos here (it's common knowledge that Bush Sr. won thanks to Reagan), so to exorcist those videos I put this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDkQaRFxsVU
  • Another Richard

    Quite right. Email has become tyrannical - and hugely wasteful. The studies you refer to show it takes 30 seconds just to scan each mail and see if it is relevant to oneself. Most aren't, and others have simply perished or been dealt with by the time we get to them. Given the volume of mail these days, many workers are spending their time literally reading about something that is in no way of use to their job.

    In a similar vein, Daimler now have a policy where people cannot receive emails when on holiday. They found workers were spending hours on their return from a break reading piles of mail that has long since perished when they would have been better just getting on with their work.
  • john_zims said:

    @bigjohnowls

    'Has any contributor said the will change their vote as a result of the speech?'

    Do you think PB is at all representative of floating voters ?

    I don't know - ask Plato!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    PAW said:

    Speedy, it wouldn't have to be jargon - initial response from FAQ, too low match responder encouraged to add to FAQ, reduce work in the future. The important thing is always to give a response. Public library catalogues do this - no matches found is useless to the searcher - something more or less apposite though less accurate is better.

    Now you are getting somewhere.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @___Bobajob___
    Plato is a card carrying conservative now, her footloose and fancy free days are over.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @Speedy
    They can see, but only superficially, it works best if they don't look too closely.
    (you are aware that the last post was ironic?)

    Yeah I know, I got my share of crappy products that looked good on the outside.
    Damages the brands though.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    HYUFD said:

    FalseFlagSoutham Indeed, but it was after Bush Snr's speech that crossover occurred, the Horton ads just cemented his lead. Dukakis also made a gaffe in the debates when he refused to show any emotion when asked how he would react if his wife had been murdered in a question on the death penalty, clip here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9gSyku-fc

    I think his answer was great! But yeah, probably not a vote-winner, sadly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Content of Buchanan's speech was nuts, lambasting gays, feminists and liberals, but he delivered it brilliantly, in my view one of the best ever convention speeches
  • Smarmeron said:

    @___Bobajob___
    Plato is a card carrying conservative now, her footloose and fancy free days are over.

    A golden age that never existed ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    Sorry Speedy, I had to check, sometimes people take everything way too seriously.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Content of Buchanan's speech was nuts, lambasting gays, feminists and liberals, but he delivered it brilliantly, in my view one of the best ever convention speeches

    It's good to hear that at least for one post, the exorcism worked.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Speedy - could do some nice management graphs - what are people asking about? what are the most common fault reports?
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Speedy - could sell consultancy to set the FAQ and response system up. Let the email target respond but escalate the conversation to sales manager if the information analysis indicates real interest.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy There was only a handful in Luntz's focus group too, and I think the sample was more than 6, but all the voters seemed pretty average and fairly apolitical except for 1 LD and a cross section of Labour, Tory and UKIP voters, it may be small but nonetheless no reason to suggest the sample wrong

    The reason the sample is atypical is that they've been watching the speech and are asked to react to it - most people will only see a snippet, if that. I think it will have an impact too, but Speedy's advice to wait to Monday makes sense.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    PAW said:

    Speedy - could do some nice management graphs - what are people asking about? what are the most common fault reports?

    Well my problem is when you have to many things on a graph I have trouble to distinguish the different bits, sometimes it's so bad they look like colorful spaghetti.
  • HYUFD said:

    FalseFlagSoutham Indeed, but it was after Bush Snr's speech that crossover occurred, the Horton ads just cemented his lead. Dukakis also made a gaffe in the debates when he refused to show any emotion when asked how he would react if his wife had been murdered in a question on the death penalty, clip here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9gSyku-fc

    I think his answer was great! But yeah, probably not a vote-winner, sadly.
    It was said to have won the votes of a thousand lawyers ...

    ... and lost those of a million factory workers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited October 2014
    Is it just me, or did Lord Ashcroft's poll earlier in the week actually give a Tory lead of 1% (32 v. 31) as opposed to the published tied vote (32 each for Lab and Con)?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-140929-Full-tables.pdf

    weighted sample without adjusting for don't know/refusers: 501

    Lab 159 (32%)
    Con 158 (32%)
    UKIP 87 (17%)
    LD 38 (8%)

    assuming 50% of 2010 don't know/refusers are added "back" to their party

    159+12 = 171 Lab
    158+18 = 176 Con
    87 = UKIP
    38+12 = 50 LD

    New weighted sample adjusting for DK/ref = 543

    New percentages:

    Con 32%
    Lab 31%
    UKIP 16%
    LD 9%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014

    Is it just me, or did Lord Ashcroft's poll earlier in the week actually give a Tory lead of 1% (32 v. 31) as opposed to the published tied vote (32 each for Lab and Con)?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-140929-Full-tables.pdf

    weighted sample without adjusting for don't know/refusers: 501

    Lab 158 (32%)
    Con 158 (32%)
    UKIP 87 (17%)
    LD 38 (8%)

    assuming 50% of 2010 don't know/refusers are added "back" to their party

    158+12 = 170 Lab
    158+18 = 176 Con
    87 = UKIP
    38+12 = 50 LD

    New weighted sample adjusting for DK/ref = 543

    New percentages:

    Con 32%
    Lab 31%
    UKIP 16%
    LD 9%

    I prefer the one he showed during the Tory conference, it had a very large sample, so large that you can treat each sub-sample as a poll on its own.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    And on this protectionist note related to HYUFD's posts, I bid you goodnight:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Speedy - yes but MANAGEMENT graphs, doesn't really matter, a nice cluster graph... could be a web service - a few pounds a year - on Azure, the quantity makes it right. The web service could remember the email sender, what they were looking for - sell the data on very quietly (I know you won't like that - but the emailer might).
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Speedy - could sell it to Nick Palmer - most emolument reply selected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    NP Indeed, would have been a great answer at a university seminar, at a presidential debate trying to convince middle America it was terrible
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Speedy - use Aspose to create management reports in powerpoint...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy LOL!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Perot of course had his Clegg moment in 1992 when at one stage after the first debate he led the polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    AnotherRichard Exactly right
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Moody women 'more likely to develop Alzheimer's' - I think it is true in my experience.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    I gather that Cameron made no mention of Rotherham in his speech.

    Or Ed Miliband in his.

    Neither did Maria Miller mention child abuse in 2012 when the Savile scandal broke.

    Wards of the state don't matter much to these filth. It would never happen to their kids, of course.

    Despicable rotten scum, the lot of them.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha! Not any more. I paid £25 and joined the Tories last year.

    john_zims said:

    @bigjohnowls

    'Has any contributor said the will change their vote as a result of the speech?'

    Do you think PB is at all representative of floating voters ?

    I don't know - ask Plato!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    BNP expel Nick Griffin http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29453341

    And on that rather amusing note, goodnight!
  • HYUFD said:

    BNP expel Nick Griffin http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29453341

    And on that rather amusing note, goodnight!

    Will he join Andrew Brons' British Democratic Party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Sunil Probably for about 5 minutes until Brons refuses to make him leader, night!
  • I'm pissed after day of golf, which MP defected????
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YBumQHPAeU

    I wouldn't say that I subscribe to the views in here, but I think it's funny. And most skillfully done. Enjoy!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    I'm pissed after day of golf, which MP defected????

    Nobody yet - Nick Clegg made the defector a counter-offer and they're still trying to decide which way to jump.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    I'm pissed after day of golf, which MP defected????

    Nobody yet - Nick Clegg made the defector a counter-offer and they're still trying to decide which way to jump.
    I suppose it’s slightly odd that under the circs no LD has defected anywhere. Apart from Hancock.
This discussion has been closed.