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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early front pages look good for Dave
I’d remember the two usual caveats, polling during conference season can be erratic, and most of the fieldwork would have been carried out before Dave’s speech.
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I think he is far better suited to the role of PM than Ed MIliband. Unfortunately, I think it very likely that UKIP's vote share put Miliband into power.
There is a great irony in that. But the monomaniacs don't do irony.
Ed is crap landslide PM
Labour whining as they're not being allowed sole ownership of Everyone's NHS.
Will have to explain at GE 2015
Add the 35 to the 45 and you get...
[checks casio]
80!!!
80/20 Rule
There is a God
PB Exclusive
The above applies only to the unwitting, not the UKIP voters who are swell aware.
In the meantime Labour clearly needs to sort itself out.
That's right, a Scottish Tory.
Tories might well get a narrow You Gov lead but can't see it lasting, Clacton will bring back the UKIP narrative
EdM wins by getting more crosses in the Labour boxes than the Conservatives do in their's.
And if the Conservatives can't get enough people to put a cross in their boxes then they have nobody to blame but themselves.
Again what were your voting intentions before / after
Has any PBer changed their VI because of it?
Doubtful
Scottish BBC1 - 10.35 - How the Campaign Was Won
Still think his Bloody Sunday one was his top one.
Your vote is their right. They are the senior of the two rightwing parties after all?
(Worse than that, they don't even understand what you are saying)
' In a hearing in the European Parliament today, the Conservative peer promised MEPs that he would put EU regulation above Britain’s national interest at a time when the Government is legally contesting European financial legislation to defend the City. '
Another EU failure for Cameron.
And we're still meant to trust him in his 'great undertaking nobody to know what it is' ?
The in work benefit freeze for the working poor is a political error in my view.
All in it together bollocks lol
So I don't know what all the fuss is about really. There may be other changes to tax between 2015 and 2020 which take the money back. One hand gives it away and another takes it back ! People would only really be able to work out whether they were actually better off, when the budget measures started to show on their payslips and household budgets.
If the media was not so right wing, it might instead have headlines of Cameron scrapping human rights.
The full effects of the Conference will be on how Cameron is treated by the media. 7 months of battering the awful EdM may shift enough voters opinion. If it was not for the defections we would have seen a crisis for EdM in a matter of weeks.
People who planned to vote Tory decide to vote UKIP, reducing said Tory vote. Evidently, they (or some) will have voted for UKIP in the hope of pushing the even further right agenda.
All the while, with the LD vote up in smoke, Ed takes the left, and with it, the spoils.
An explanation.
That's the worry for Labour.
There's other stuff - but those stood out for me.
Pretty meaningless area to criticise were the truth to be either told or known.
"Earlier this year, I thought Ukip would probably win no seats next year. I can now envisage them winning up to ten"
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/29/ukip-snp-and-risks-parliamentary-paralysis/
Which I assume means YouGov will start prompting for UKIP before the general election campaign starts.
http://research.yougov.co.uk/about/methodology/
Clacton Tory hold?
This isn't over.
Lets see what the next poll says about who has most Trust on NHS.
Where are the £40BN cuts coming from
Stephen Tall @stephentall
The FT is also struggling to work out if Cameron's speech was just deluded or also deceitful http://on.ft.com/1mS3fbj
I'll just even it up ;-)
Dave also has to flesh out these proposals, unless of course he decides to file them below "powers I want repatriated"?
PB Tory analysis, you can't buy that kind of insight.
Most entertaining stuff today. especially the claim the the Tory focus is still on the deficit when the party has just promised a gigantico tax cut to the middle class.
FWIW - I think moving the 40p threshold is a good policy. I'm a low-tax leftie as people on here know. Putting money in people's pockets is generally a good thing and it could boost growth.
But if you are going to do for God sakes do it properly. Do it now(ish). Bring it in in April so people can budget for the higher income. 2020 is the 12th of Never. I think people will get a rude awakening when they realise that this 'giveaway' is actually just in line with forecast wage growth so there will be little real terms benefit, and nothing immediately, if ever (so many caveats in the policy).
I've totally got this sort of thing wrong in the past though.
It was the same with Ed's £8 minimum wage?
ECHR/bill of rights - This might be a right wing media obsession, but most members of the public will be unhappy about human rights being withdrawn. Tories want to have weaker human rights under the bill of rights. Lab/LIb have no plans to make changes to ECHR.
Thresholds- Con/Lib would probably have the same policy. Lab plans currently unknown.
' UK Labour Productivity as measured by output per hour was unchanged in the second quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter, and 0.3% lower than a year earlier. '
Output per hour worked is at exactly the same level now as it was when this government took office.
It is lower than it was SEVEN years ago.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=LZVB&dataset=prdy&table-id=1
Looks like we'll need to give the magic money tree another shake.
No doubt he will be on shortly to declare them blind.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2585d674-4953-11e4-8d68-00144feab7de,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2585d674-4953-11e4-8d68-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=http://www.ft.com/home/uk
I followed the conferences as most people do. That is to say very little. My impression was that Miliband really isn't very good and Cameron is very slick and has grown into office to the manner born.
Having said that I still wouldn't even abstain from voting against the Tories because so much of what they do and say still makes my skin crawl. They are a party who simply don't value everyone equally and have little empathy for those less fortunate than themselves.
For this reason I believe the brand will kill it for them and thus enough people will vote against them to make Miliband Prime Minister.
Clacton is a UKIP gain isnt it?
Which magic money tree? the left or right one? both?
But he will be more open to reasoned debate from people who understand the financial services industry
I assume he was keen on the unfunded bit.
Golly, who would have thought it.
He could have bent over and farted God save the Queen from his arse and the papers above would have been gushing about it.
Cllr Tom Chapman @tomchapman16
@JeremyBrowneMP Why don't you join the Tories? Totally wasted in the Lib Dems. Our low tax, socially just message is in tune with yours
"But he will be more open to reasoned debate from people who understand the financial services industry "
You mean those whose word is nothing as well?
I can see your point.
Has any contributor said the will change their vote as a result of the speech?
I havent seen one but i have been out for large chunks of the day
Or is it only Tory policy that has to be implemented instantly?
I read the other day that the Tories have ever so slightly increased NHS in real terms, but because of other factors that have increased more than inflation there may be a net reduction.
One of those factors was pensions, can you tell me how much we spend on the NHS and how much of it goes on pensions please.
And I repeat my comment from yesterday. Since we are continually told that Cameron can only win if from the centre, how can you then claim that losing votes on the Right cost him the election. You cannot have it both ways.
If Cameron drives away a large portion of his support the only person to blame for that is Cameron.
The two announcements today have been presented, by the Conservative Party, as big tax cuts, and that is reflected in the favourable coverage TSE has noted, as well as in the hysterical responses by the usual suspects.
In fact they are very modest announcements; the rise in the higher-rate threshold is only marginally above expected inflation over the next five years. Of course, compared with the recent past, that is in itself a big plus: effectively, what the Conservatives are doing here is promising not to let fiscal drag increase taxes on people currently earning up to the higher-rate threshold. So, though very welcome, it's not really much of a tax cut at all; the reason it's easily affordable is that it's a modest proposal.
By laying into the Tories on the basis that this is some massive unfunded giveaway to the relatively well-off, Labour and the Guardian-reading classes generally are actually helping the narrative which Osborne wants to set. The Mail and the Telegraph are joining in enthusiastically.
It's almost a mirror-image of the response to the 'omnishambles' budget, which was actually a very good budget but one which the media decided, arbitrarily, to lay into. This time they've decided to go overboard in the other direction.
Perhaps this just reflects better presentation and planning by the Conservatives; certainly both have been good in this conference.
Either way it bodes well for the election. Labour are left tilting at the wrong target, and anything they now propose differently can be portrayed as a big tax rise. That is entirely their own fault; they rose to the bait, and swallowed it whole. A much better response would have been to play down the significance of the announcements.
But there are thousands of soft Kippers that will return to the Tory fold if Cameron keeps this up.
If I was Michael gove,I'll be working on it.
You're not spending too much time with strategic genius Baronet Gideon are you?
Cameron can afford to lose 10 000 voters in true blue Surrey in order to gain a couple of thousand in Nuneaton etc.