Does Robin Brant know something about the UKIP event?
twitter.com/robindbrant/status/517306852334632962
I know absolutely nothing...
I said to TSE last night I didn't think there would be another MP defection until at least after the Clacton By-election. I would probably extend that even further to after whenever the Rochester election is held.
I saw something similar to that in the Telegraph, attributed to "senior UKIP figures" (or something along those lines)
From yesterday's Telegraph. Stuart Wheeler reckons there will be two more MP's defect to UKIP before Christmas and Lord Cooper Cameron's former pollster reckons UKIP will get 4 seats at the General Election
I'm having trouble deciding if SamCam is hotter than Her Royal Qilfiness or not.
Any PB views?
The one with the bum's sister would be a fairer comparison.
Hmmm...a dilemma indeed.
I think the answer comes from this way of thinking about it: If you were stuck on a desert island with SamCam and HRH Qilf which one would you eat first?
Unfunded pre-election splurge from the self-styled Party of "fiscal responsibility".
The simpering NHS stuff was laughable. If you love it so much, Dave, why did you spunk billions on a chaotic top-down reorgnisation you promised wouldn't happen, and that no-one wanted apart from the Private Health companies - some Tory donors - who now have their profiteering hands on large chunks of it?
Care to remind us of Labour's plan to reorganise the NHS that Miliband mentioned in his 'speech' last week.
As for privatising healthcare, the previous government lead the way.
I'm having trouble deciding if SamCam is hotter than Her Royal Qilfiness or not.
Any PB views?
The one with the bum's sister would be a fairer comparison.
Hmmm...a dilemma indeed.
I think the answer comes from this way of thinking about it: If you were stuck on a desert island with SamCam and HRH Qilf which one would you eat first?
Grumpy
SamCam looks a bit horsey - this has been previously stated hasn't it???
As for privatising healthcare, the previous government lead the way.
Amazing how you slapped Hugh down there, without even mentioning Wales.
It's all getting a bit too easy really, isn't it?
Two wrongs don’t make a right. It’s high time politicians stopped messing about with NHS structures. By all means ensure that Stafford and perhaps Colchester are looked into properly but a good start might be to protect whistle-blowers from vindictive ex-colleagues.
It shouldn't be overshadowed by any defection now. Those stories have already become a bit stale. It'd have to be somebody very big to overshadow the massive rabbits pulled out of the hat today.
Cameron rightly judged he needed something big enough to dominate the news agenda no matter what. This is it.
I can't call the return to the imperial system a massive rabbit.
That depends on whether or not you get confused over which system of units you use to measure the rabbit.
The Euro is weakening at an alarming rate. 0.7778 vs GBP and 1.25 vs USD. The sustained downward pressure on the currency seems unnatural. Europe is messy, but not this messy. Feels like an over correction or something worse.
That's a very valid and interesting point. When you're trusted enough to simply state it and the public expect your maths to add up - it is a very different kettle of fish.
The fact that the Tories can make this pledge and people will accept that it will happen without any detailed explanation of how, tells you how wide the gulf in economic credibility is between Tory and Labour.
General Election 2010: Mid Bedfordshire[6] Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Nadine Dorries 28,815 52.5 +5.9 Liberal Democrat Linda Jack 13,663 24.9 +1.4 Labour David Reeves 8,108 14.8 -7.7 UKIP Bill Hall 2,826 5.1 +2.4 Green Malcolm Bailey 773 1.4 -1.2 English Democrats John Cooper 712 1.3 N/A
If as it appears Moazzam Begg is an entirely innocent man then I hope that there will be some heads rolling in both the police and the CPS. To have dropped charges after only 5 minutes in court today after all they have put him through is bloody despicable.
It is no wonder sometimes that muslims in the UK feel persecuted.
I know nothing of course but I still believe this 5 pm stuff is just a wind up.
I also believe they have probably overplayed it if that is the case.
Is Nadine the sort of nutter that will fit in ?
No idea. I find it very difficult to get past the media perception of politicians and know from the few I do know personally that what the media thinks is generally a very long way from reality.
That said I still have no idea if this is just a big UKIP bluff. Just have to wait and see.
O/T (ish). I haven't been a particular fan of Pritti Patel but I thought she acquitted herself extremely well aginst Andrew Neil in a pre Cameron speech interview.
Nadine Dorries I believe will be on Skynews at 5pm.
Interesting to speculate on what the reaction to her would be if she defected (I think she is more likely on to comment).
Another publicity seeking egotistical (so far this applicable to most politicians) awkward disloyal and marginal person for whom there is no popular adoration. Would she be a gain to the party that she defected to or a millstone round the neck of that party?
I'm beginning to see how this could play into the feeling the the Tory party is more centre and less Right Wing, always been sceptical about that before, but loosing dinosaurs isn't all bad.
Earlier this week I believe she said no way for her to move to UKIP, but like in so many other things, I could be wrong.
I'm guessing its a lot of the Black Mamma stereotyping - TBH, it's no different to Gone With The Wind or dozens of other things. I wouldn't cut them or ban TinTin in the Congo or whatever it's called.
Or The Water Babies and all the other stuff. It's cultural bowderlisation and I hate it. Learn to see it for what it is. Never neuter it - or change a blinking dog's name cos someone with no sense wants to get offended.
Mr. Slackbladder, hmm. I honestly can't recall (and I saw a fair number of them as a child) anything that would seem racist to me. On the other hand, if Mr. Stereotomy's right then the relevant bits may have been cut. Perhaps I was wrong about this.
I've not heard the Prime Minister's speech in full - I've only seen the main headlines. A few thoughts:
Clearly, Osborne and Cameron have some kind of understanding - the Chancellor's low-key speech on Monday and now today's move on tax from the PM suggests to me that Osborne will be the "chosen" successor if Cameron wins a majority next year and retires toward the end of his second term. If Cameron loses, Osborne must realise his chances of being the leader in a field including Boris Johnson aren't great.
I'm curious that after lambasting Labour over the deficit, the Prime Minister has today announced a policy which will, according to the IFS, cost the Treasury some £7.2 billion in tax revenue by 2020. This isn't in the cosmic scheme of things that much but at a time of stringency shouldn't the priority be to maximise income as well as reduce expenditure ?
I remember arguing for the threshold to be moved to £45k on here earlier in the year only to be told that "it wouldn't affect that many people" - apparently 30 million (though presumably that's mostly through the Liberal Democrat policy of raising the personal allowance). As those who've been sceptical about this policy have opined, it's about the NI payments as much as it's about the tax and I heard no mention of those either today.
In addition, how can the Conservatives be serious about tackling the public finances if they continue to ring-fence large areas ? At some point, NHS expenditure is going to have to be tackled - the problem is it's an area of exponentially-rising demand and higher than CPI cost rises.
On a personal level, I obviously wouldn't vote Conservative (there's as much point doing that in East Ham as there is voting Liberal Democrat) but I find this whole "vote Tory for jam tomorrow" irritating. Raising the tax threshold isn't going to get back the money I've lost in the past five years but I'm also appalled that vote-winning largesse is undermining the core reason for the past five years of stringency - bringing the debt down and eliminating the deficit (remember 2010).
As to a UKIP "defection" at 5pm, I'm agog with indifference.
Nadine Dorries I believe will be on Skynews at 5pm.
Nad leaving, would be a Tory gain.
To pinch Matthew Parrish's aphorism, 'it would raise the average IQ of both parties'......
How so?
It was originally said of someone defecting from the Tories to Labour - and of course is completely unfair, but the idea is that the defector is dumber than average of the party they are leaving, and brighter than average of the party they are joining - hence the swap raises the average IQ of both.....
Nadine Dorries I believe will be on Skynews at 5pm.
Interesting to speculate on what the reaction to her would be if she defected (I think she is more likely on to comment).
Another publicity seeking egotistical (so far this applicable to most politicians) awkward disloyal and marginal person for whom there is no popular adoration. Would she be a gain to the party that she defected to or a millstone round the neck of that party?
I'm beginning to see how this could play into the feeling the the Tory party is more centre and less Right Wing, always been sceptical about that before, but loosing dinosaurs isn't all bad.
Earlier this week I believe she said no way for her to move to UKIP, but like in so many other things, I could be wrong.
Didn't she make some "no more roast dinners from me" comment about a previously mooted defector, who I believe was stepping out with Nads daughter? [he hasn't defected, not sure whether it was due to the roast dinner threat]
Antifrank's response to my pointing out a change in focus for the government is to quote a passage from a speech.
I'm talking about focus, direction, message. I can find a speech by Ed in which he talks about immigration.
That is a long way from saying it will be his focus.
And every time the Tories do screech "deficit!", people will ask about their massive unfunded giveaway.
How can you talk about a 'massive unfunded giveaway' when in reality the facts show that the cuts, the govt spending tatgets, are 10 billion ahead of the plans published in 2010. Socialists, thickos and nutjobs continually refuse to face the facts to keep their fantasy world of stupidity and bigotry real.
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
Nadine Dorries I believe will be on Skynews at 5pm.
Interesting to speculate on what the reaction to her would be if she defected (I think she is more likely on to comment).
Another publicity seeking egotistical (so far this applicable to most politicians) awkward disloyal and marginal person for whom there is no popular adoration. Would she be a gain to the party that she defected to or a millstone round the neck of that party?
I'm beginning to see how this could play into the feeling the the Tory party is more centre and less Right Wing, always been sceptical about that before, but loosing dinosaurs isn't all bad.
Earlier this week I believe she said no way for her to move to UKIP, but like in so many other things, I could be wrong.
Didn't she make some "no more roast dinners from me" comment about a previous defector, who I believe was stepping out with Nads daughter?
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
I know nothing of course but I still believe this 5 pm stuff is just a wind up.
I also believe they have probably overplayed it if that is the case.
Is Nadine the sort of nutter that will fit in ?
No idea. I find it very difficult to get past the media perception of politicians and know from the few I do know personally that what the media thinks is generally a very long way from reality.
That said I still have no idea if this is just a big UKIP bluff. Just have to wait and see.
The anecdotal comments from an associate who has dealt with her, were, how can I put it, not complimentary.
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
Unless it helps those on under 12500 by encouraging and enthusing them to find ways means and jobs to do better.
Antifrank's response to my pointing out a change in focus for the government is to quote a passage from a speech.
I'm talking about focus, direction, message. I can find a speech by Ed in which he talks about immigration.
That is a long way from saying it will be his focus.
And every time the Tories do screech "deficit!", people will ask about their massive unfunded giveaway.
How can you talk about a 'massive unfunded giveaway' when in reality the facts show that the cuts, the govt spending tatgets, are 10 billion ahead of the plans published in 2010. Socialists, thickos and nutjobs continually refuse to face the facts to keep their fantasy world of stupidity and bigotry real.
How about because Osborne missed his deficit targets and is on target to increase the Public debt by around £600 billion over this government. If constantly returning to the Money tree is not 'unfunded' what is?
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
Antifrank's response to my pointing out a change in focus for the government is to quote a passage from a speech.
I'm talking about focus, direction, message. I can find a speech by Ed in which he talks about immigration.
That is a long way from saying it will be his focus.
And every time the Tories do screech "deficit!", people will ask about their massive unfunded giveaway.
How can you talk about a 'massive unfunded giveaway' when in reality the facts show that the cuts, the govt spending tatgets, are 10 billion ahead of the plans published in 2010. Socialists, thickos and nutjobs continually refuse to face the facts to keep their fantasy world of stupidity and bigotry real.
How about because Osborne missed his deficit targets and is on target to increase the Public debt by around £600 billion over this government. If constantly returning to the Money tree is not 'unfunded' what is?
Was there ever a plan that didn't see total borrowing increase over this term?
@NadineDorriesMP Nadine Dorries is a rarity. She is a honest politician. This lady if I remember correctly does not claim expenses.
There is certainly no indication of any impending defection on her twitter account where she has been remarkably positive about the conference. Sure it's not someone else?
The Euro is weakening at an alarming rate. 0.7778 vs GBP and 1.25 vs USD. The sustained downward pressure on the currency seems unnatural. Europe is messy, but not this messy. Feels like an over correction or something worse.
When are they releasing the stress tests on European banks?
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
Unless it helps those on under 12500 by encouraging and enthusing them to find ways means and jobs to do better.
It is not a binary situation.
"So what made you apply for the job of CEO?"
"Well, nasty Osborne froze my tax credits so I was left with little choice."
There is much more to do to for the Tories to ensure the message is heard and assure people that they mean it. But for now, the PM has done a good day’s work.
Antifrank's response to my pointing out a change in focus for the government is to quote a passage from a speech.
I'm talking about focus, direction, message. I can find a speech by Ed in which he talks about immigration.
That is a long way from saying it will be his focus.
And every time the Tories do screech "deficit!", people will ask about their massive unfunded giveaway.
How can you talk about a 'massive unfunded giveaway' when in reality the facts show that the cuts, the govt spending tatgets, are 10 billion ahead of the plans published in 2010. Socialists, thickos and nutjobs continually refuse to face the facts to keep their fantasy world of stupidity and bigotry real.
How about because Osborne missed his deficit targets and is on target to increase the Public debt by around £600 billion over this government. If constantly returning to the Money tree is not 'unfunded' what is?
Was there ever a plan that didn't see total borrowing increase over this term?
Ask David Cameron and Nick Clegg. They were always claiming that this Government was 'paying down the debt'. Where did that come from?
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
Unless it helps those on under 12500 by encouraging and enthusing them to find ways means and jobs to do better.
It is not a binary situation.
"So what made you apply for the job of CEO?"
"Well, nasty Osborne froze my tax credits so I was left with little choice."
There is much more to do to for the Tories to ensure the message is heard and assure people that they mean it. But for now, the PM has done a good day’s work.
If my maths is correct Cameron's new tax break for those paying higher rate tax will be worth about £15 a week for someone earning £47000 a year? A pity for the Scots Nats that he didn't make this speech before the referendum. It would have given arguments about the 'bedroom tax' some legs.
I sense everyone is waiting by their computers for "Farage At Five'. I hope for all your sakes its not just another of Guido's honey traps
40% tax affects the wealthy few, yet the Tories reckon it's a game changer. Odd. Much better spending the money increasing personal allowance to £15k and help all.
And help all except those earning under £12,500 you mean.
Unless it helps those on under 12500 by encouraging and enthusing them to find ways means and jobs to do better.
It is not a binary situation.
"So what made you apply for the job of CEO?"
"Well, nasty Osborne froze my tax credits so I was left with little choice."
No, he made it a bit more worthwhile to work rather than not work.
If as it appears Moazzam Begg is an entirely innocent man then I hope that there will be some heads rolling in both the police and the CPS. To have dropped charges after only 5 minutes in court today after all they have put him through is bloody despicable.
It is no wonder sometimes that muslims in the UK feel persecuted.
And of course these are the people who we are supposed to trust in regards to things like control orders - or whatever they are called these days - when they don't even have to present evidence to a jury.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11131879/Ukip-to-win-four-seats-at-2015-general-election-says-Cameron-pollster.html
No wonder politicians are not trusted.
I think the answer comes from this way of thinking about it: If you were stuck on a desert island with SamCam and HRH Qilf which one would you eat first?
As for privatising healthcare, the previous government lead the way.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/second-police-force-admits-using-ripa-spy-journalists-phone-records-and-out-confidential-sources
I will be watching Sky News at 5pm. I recommend many others do too. #ukip
I don't suppose he will be tuning onto Sky just for Cameron's speech. Might be worth keeping an eye open on twitter. Is it more than piss and wind?
SamCam looks a bit horsey - this has been previously stated hasn't it???
Otherwise-
PB EXCLUSIVE!!!
Ed Milliband has forced Ed Balls to join UKIP?
I'm talking about focus, direction, message. I can find a speech by Ed in which he talks about immigration.
That is a long way from saying it will be his focus.
Amazing how you slapped Hugh down there, without even mentioning Wales.
It's all getting a bit too easy really, isn't it?
Are you thinking of this sort of rabbit? rabbitsforsaleinarkansas.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/612.jpg?w=640
Flemish Giants are definitely the Devil's Work when it comes to metric/Imperial eff-ups.
"Tim,
If David Cameron's conference speech this morning made you as angry as it made me..."
Why would it make her angry ?
Or Tebbit??
I'll get me coat....
*runs to shop for extra butterkist*
I also believe they have probably overplayed it if that is the case.
General Election 2010: Mid Bedfordshire[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nadine Dorries 28,815 52.5 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Linda Jack 13,663 24.9 +1.4
Labour David Reeves 8,108 14.8 -7.7
UKIP Bill Hall 2,826 5.1 +2.4
Green Malcolm Bailey 773 1.4 -1.2
English Democrats John Cooper 712 1.3 N/A
Indeed. We have certainly entered the twilight zone today.
Plato
Do you have a single shred of evidence that the public believes the tax cut pledge?
Cameron Resigns
Third time lucky eh?
If as it appears Moazzam Begg is an entirely innocent man then I hope that there will be some heads rolling in both the police and the CPS. To have dropped charges after only 5 minutes in court today after all they have put him through is bloody despicable.
It is no wonder sometimes that muslims in the UK feel persecuted.
That said I still have no idea if this is just a big UKIP bluff. Just have to wait and see.
Another publicity seeking egotistical (so far this applicable to most politicians) awkward disloyal and marginal person for whom there is no popular adoration. Would she be a gain to the party that she defected to or a millstone round the neck of that party?
I'm beginning to see how this could play into the feeling the the Tory party is more centre and less Right Wing, always been sceptical about that before, but loosing dinosaurs isn't all bad.
Earlier this week I believe she said no way for her to move to UKIP, but like in so many other things, I could be wrong.
Or The Water Babies and all the other stuff. It's cultural bowderlisation and I hate it. Learn to see it for what it is. Never neuter it - or change a blinking dog's name cos someone with no sense wants to get offended.
I've not heard the Prime Minister's speech in full - I've only seen the main headlines. A few thoughts:
Clearly, Osborne and Cameron have some kind of understanding - the Chancellor's low-key speech on Monday and now today's move on tax from the PM suggests to me that Osborne will be the "chosen" successor if Cameron wins a majority next year and retires toward the end of his second term. If Cameron loses, Osborne must realise his chances of being the leader in a field including Boris Johnson aren't great.
I'm curious that after lambasting Labour over the deficit, the Prime Minister has today announced a policy which will, according to the IFS, cost the Treasury some £7.2 billion in tax revenue by 2020. This isn't in the cosmic scheme of things that much but at a time of stringency shouldn't the priority be to maximise income as well as reduce expenditure ?
I remember arguing for the threshold to be moved to £45k on here earlier in the year only to be told that "it wouldn't affect that many people" - apparently 30 million (though presumably that's mostly through the Liberal Democrat policy of raising the personal allowance). As those who've been sceptical about this policy have opined, it's about the NI payments as much as it's about the tax and I heard no mention of those either today.
In addition, how can the Conservatives be serious about tackling the public finances if they continue to ring-fence large areas ? At some point, NHS expenditure is going to have to be tackled - the problem is it's an area of exponentially-rising demand and higher than CPI cost rises.
On a personal level, I obviously wouldn't vote Conservative (there's as much point doing that in East Ham as there is voting Liberal Democrat) but I find this whole "vote Tory for jam tomorrow" irritating. Raising the tax threshold isn't going to get back the money I've lost in the past five years but I'm also appalled that vote-winning largesse is undermining the core reason for the past five years of stringency - bringing the debt down and eliminating the deficit (remember 2010).
As to a UKIP "defection" at 5pm, I'm agog with indifference.
Nigel would probably accept a defection because it is after Camerons speech.
Antifrank will tell you that splurging on a tax cut does not mean the focus has moved away from the deficit.
I will tell you that you are right and he is wildly wrong.
EDIT: Here you go http://skynews.skypressoffice.co.uk/newstranscripts/murnaghan-280914-interview-nadine-dorries-mp-conservative
UKIP People @UKIPpeople 7 hrs7 hours ago
@NadineDorriesMP Nadine Dorries is a rarity. She is a honest politician. This lady if I remember correctly does not claim expenses.
So maybe she did, or maybe she didn't.
Edit And on Sky, so maybe PB was accurate!
http://order-order.com/2014/10/01/ukip-banks-on-mystery-donation-figure-and-dont-mention-his-mrs-and-mike-hancock/
The next defector has to be a Tebbit level of defector to have impact. 5pm?
It is not a binary situation.
Oh, yeah...
The things you learn on here.
"Well, nasty Osborne froze my tax credits so I was left with little choice."
There is much more to do to for the Tories to ensure the message is heard and assure people that they mean it. But for now, the PM has done a good day’s work.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/good-days-work-pm-218-go/
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/517338908213137408/photo/1
Is the East European marriage lady serving tea & biscuits?
Maybe Handy-cock has joined UKIP? (just to cheer up Mark Senior and OGH)
I sense everyone is waiting by their computers for "Farage At Five'. I hope for all your sakes its not just another of Guido's honey traps
So lazy. And unoriginal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-29446232