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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: David Cameron does indeed have a jumbo rabbit in his #CPC14 speech today. A big new tax move to help C2 voters especially, I hear.

    What tax move could you make that would help C2 voters especially?

    That sounds like blatant spin to me.
    As I said, it's silly that NI now kicks in at a lower level than income tax does. For a while it actually matched up, one of the few good things Gordon Brown did, but it decoupled after Brown was forced to push up the IT personal allowance (thanks Gord), after the 10p tax-shambles.

    Pushing that back up to match the income tax would be a very good move, balanced by possibly increasing the rate for higher earning workers, or playing around with other thresholds.
    Leaving aside the merits of that change I fail to see how it targets C2 voters.

    I would benefit as an AB voter, as would many C1 voters.

    You'd think people would be more sceptical of such spin these days, but much of the media has swallowed Miliband's absurd small change to save the NHS policy without critical comment.
    If you push up the threshold, but increase the rate. (say put the level which NI kicks in up to the 10k of IT), but then put a penny on NI, then it will always benefit the lower paid, then there will be breakeven at a higher rate, then higher paid works will pay more.

    That's assuming you want it to be revenue neutral, rather than a straight giveaway.
  • Yay, they are playing the Killers, All the things I've Done
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Neil said:

    Alistair said:

    Neil said:

    antifrank said:

    I did ask last week why everyone was so incurious about what rabbits the Conservatives might pull out of their hats, noting that it is easier to play that game in government.

    I for one was 100% sure they'd take the goal of eliminating the deficit seriously and wouldnt be reduced to playing politics with the nation's finances. I'm devastated to learn that instead they've allowed Osborne to engage in his passion for strategising again.

    I've done a thread about the Indyref that praises George Osborne's masterful strategy.

    You'll love it.
    I can write that:
    "George Osborne fucked up handling the tax regime of North Sea Oil so badly in th eopening years of the government that it resulted in a panicked attempt to get the oil companies back on board which led to a year of record investment in NSO which offset against Offshore Tax Take meant in the year of the referendum there was a surprisingly large dip in NSO revenue" fin.
    Ah but I'm using polling evidence, where as you're using Nat wishful thinking/anecdote.
    Osborne's mishandling of the NSO tax regime is a matter of record.

    But in the context of the Indyref, did that have an impact? One of George's other strategies did win the referendum.
    Osborne's winning indyref strategy was to dig out Gordon Brown's phone number from down the back of the Treasury sofa.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Owls, which numbers?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    Was it UKIP that complained that recalling Parliament was a deliberate ploy to deflect attention from their conference. This is the same UKIP that is doing everything they can to ruin the tory conference.

    It was the Conservative party that choreographed a spate of UKIP to Tory 'I just can't stand the racism any more' defections before and during the European elections. If they can't take it, they shouldn't dish it out.
    Sorry I didn't see the tories complain to the press, it was UKIP who complained.
  • Neil said:

    Alistair said:

    Neil said:

    antifrank said:

    I did ask last week why everyone was so incurious about what rabbits the Conservatives might pull out of their hats, noting that it is easier to play that game in government.

    I for one was 100% sure they'd take the goal of eliminating the deficit seriously and wouldnt be reduced to playing politics with the nation's finances. I'm devastated to learn that instead they've allowed Osborne to engage in his passion for strategising again.

    I've done a thread about the Indyref that praises George Osborne's masterful strategy.

    You'll love it.
    I can write that:
    "George Osborne fucked up handling the tax regime of North Sea Oil so badly in th eopening years of the government that it resulted in a panicked attempt to get the oil companies back on board which led to a year of record investment in NSO which offset against Offshore Tax Take meant in the year of the referendum there was a surprisingly large dip in NSO revenue" fin.
    Ah but I'm using polling evidence, where as you're using Nat wishful thinking/anecdote.
    Osborne's mishandling of the NSO tax regime is a matter of record.

    But in the context of the Indyref, did that have an impact? One of George's other strategies did win the referendum.
    Osborne's winning indyref strategy was to dig out Gordon Brown's phone number from down the back of the Treasury sofa.
    Osborne gave Darling the bullets and the gun, when Darling proved to be as useful as chocolate fireguard, they called up Brown who fired the gun.
  • Ferfuxsake, I'm at the cinema at 5pm

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

    Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...


    the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns.
    Surely you mean political correctness..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tom Newton Dunn: Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
    Yes, clearly in this whole subject, I'm the one that has done something wrong.

    We could have a much more sensible discussion if there was a sensible response - or even a half-sensible response - from the government. But there's just a gaping silence.

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Ferfuxsake, I'm at the cinema at 5pm

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

    Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor.

    Sounds plausible -- if an unknown donor walks and quacks like a decoy ...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Neil said:

    Alistair said:

    Neil said:

    antifrank said:

    I did ask last week why everyone was so incurious about what rabbits the Conservatives might pull out of their hats, noting that it is easier to play that game in government.

    I for one was 100% sure they'd take the goal of eliminating the deficit seriously and wouldnt be reduced to playing politics with the nation's finances. I'm devastated to learn that instead they've allowed Osborne to engage in his passion for strategising again.

    I've done a thread about the Indyref that praises George Osborne's masterful strategy.

    You'll love it.
    I can write that:
    "George Osborne fucked up handling the tax regime of North Sea Oil so badly in th eopening years of the government that it resulted in a panicked attempt to get the oil companies back on board which led to a year of record investment in NSO which offset against Offshore Tax Take meant in the year of the referendum there was a surprisingly large dip in NSO revenue" fin.
    Ah but I'm using polling evidence, where as you're using Nat wishful thinking/anecdote.
    Osborne's mishandling of the NSO tax regime is a matter of record.

    But in the context of the Indyref, did that have an impact? One of George's other strategies did win the referendum.
    It certainly produced a barrage of negative stories when for the first time in 7 years Scotland's deficit worse than the UK's and the first time since Barnett was introduced that Scotland's deficit was percentage points worse than the UK's.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Personally I think that Vehicle excise duty should be abolished, and the tax simply added to fuel duty, which no-one would notice. Absolutely fair, no administration costs. MOT status could be stored on the database instead of whether a car is taxed or not. The current administration centre (is it in Wales?) could be re-purposed for administration/call centres for the nationalised banks: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2165765/Natwest-meltdown-The-real-scandal-RBS-sacked-thousands-UK-workers-sent-jobs-abroad.html repatriating this business and improving the service. Thank you and good night.
  • Ferfuxsake, I'm at the cinema at 5pm

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

    Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor.

    You think that's bad?

    I'm on the golf course then... and tomorrow.... how can I let forth with my vitriol on whoever this ultimate pig-dog traitor is.

    Actually, I'm coming round to the 'bad bank good bank' image so if these headbangers want to go then just go and be done with it...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    Mr. Owls, which numbers?

    One example

    The work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, has been criticised by the UK's statistics watchdog for misusing figures to promote the effectiveness of the coalition's benefits cap on getting people into work.

    In a press release issued by the Department of Work and Pensions last month alongside "ad hoc" statistics, Duncan Smith was quoted as saying "already we've seen 8,000 people who would have been affected by the cap move into jobs. This clearly demonstrates that the cap is having the desired impact".

    However, in an open letter sent on Thursday, Andrew Dilnot, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, said this claim was "unsupported by the official statistics published by the department"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: David Cameron does indeed have a jumbo rabbit in his #CPC14 speech today. A big new tax move to help C2 voters especially, I hear.

    What tax move could you make that would help C2 voters especially?

    That sounds like blatant spin to me.
    As I said, it's silly that NI now kicks in at a lower level than income tax does. For a while it actually matched up, one of the few good things Gordon Brown did, but it decoupled after Brown was forced to push up the IT personal allowance (thanks Gord), after the 10p tax-shambles.

    Pushing that back up to match the income tax would be a very good move, balanced by possibly increasing the rate for higher earning workers, or playing around with other thresholds.
    Leaving aside the merits of that change I fail to see how it targets C2 voters.

    I would benefit as an AB voter, as would many C1 voters.

    You'd think people would be more sceptical of such spin these days, but much of the media has swallowed Miliband's absurd small change to save the NHS policy without critical comment.
    If you push up the threshold, but increase the rate. (say put the level which NI kicks in up to the 10k of IT), but then put a penny on NI, then it will always benefit the lower paid, then there will be breakeven at a higher rate, then higher paid works will pay more.

    That's assuming you want it to be revenue neutral, rather than a straight giveaway.
    That would be interesting. I guess we'll hear soon.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    If you prefer politics as a substitute for blood sports how about watching Lord Hill's grilling in the European Parliament. Though after taking bankers' pay out of his remit he should get through this process:

    http://www.elections2014.eu/en/new-commission/hearing/20140918HEA65205
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Great to see David Cameron is wearing his @helpforheroes wristband as he delivers his #cpc14 speech.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
    Yes, clearly in this whole subject, I'm the one that has done something wrong.

    We could have a much more sensible discussion if there was a sensible response - or even a half-sensible response - from the government. But there's just a gaping silence.

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?
    It all has to be done on the terms of the people in power, just like the abuse

    Notice the similarities in response to whistleblowers on such subjects and that to the abused themselves
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Looking forward to a sensational headline today courtesy of Ukip.

    How about "Dennis Skinner defects to Ukip" ?

    We used to play that game years ago .... "Marie Celeste arrives in Liverpool" and "Archduke Ferdinand found alive and well; World War One a mistake".

    But perhaps it was all just a ruse to keep the Tories guessing and spread suspicion and anger in the ranks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    Was it UKIP that complained that recalling Parliament was a deliberate ploy to deflect attention from their conference. This is the same UKIP that is doing everything they can to ruin the tory conference.

    It was the Conservative party that choreographed a spate of UKIP to Tory 'I just can't stand the racism any more' defections before and during the European elections. If they can't take it, they shouldn't dish it out.
    Sorry I didn't see the tories complain to the press, it was UKIP who complained.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did UKIP 'complain to the press', or did they complain and it was reported in the press, the same way the Tories have been howling about fat arses and hoover shaggers over the past few days.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Cameron was talking about visiting France for the D Day commemorations.

    He remembers being accompanied with a veteran, Patrick. He is in the hall, and Cameron invites the audience to give him a round of applause. He gets a standing ovation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mark Ferguson providing more evidence for SeanT's 'Lefties Hate Britain' thesis:

    I’m not sure people all around the world have always looked upon the Union Jack in the way Cameron suggests. E.g. When we were invading them
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Owls, cheers for that answer.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
    Yes, clearly in this whole subject, I'm the one that has done something wrong.

    We could have a much more sensible discussion if there was a sensible response - or even a half-sensible response - from the government. But there's just a gaping silence.

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?
    Having gone on about it to the point of obsession, no one here is prepared to engage with you anymore on that topic. Have you not noticed?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tom Bradby: His reference to a D Day vet he met possibly a safer bet than Ed M and Gareth in the park.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Following his shambolic speech, there's nothing EdM can do right now other than hunker down and accept the battering he's about to get.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    MaxPB said:

    Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.

    Paid for by freezing in work benefits?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?

    Frankly you sound completely mad on this subject. Why on earth would Cameron supporters want to shut up about the issue? If anything it is damaging to Labour, if one wants to politicise it. It's a completely bonkers proposition, not least because they haven't shut up about it, and nor has the Cameron government.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    currystar said:

    Was it UKIP that complained that recalling Parliament was a deliberate ploy to deflect attention from their conference. This is the same UKIP that is doing everything they can to ruin the tory conference.

    It was the Conservative party that choreographed a spate of UKIP to Tory 'I just can't stand the racism any more' defections before and during the European elections. If they can't take it, they shouldn't dish it out.
    No they should have ignored people appalled by racism?
    From being simply anti EU to moving on to being anti immigrant to being anti muslim Farage has been peddling his policies of hate and clearly sees the tories as being in the way of his nasty extremist army.
  • New Thread
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Going out now to see Riot Club sounds like Bullingdon Club to me
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    MaxPB said:

    Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.

    Paid for by freezing in work benefits?
    Paid for by borrowing to the tune of tens of billions of pounds a year.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    Cut the basic rate to 19% and the higher rate to 39%. Policies that will win over lower paid and middle income people. Time to win the election.

    Paid for by freezing in work benefits?
    Yes, with the longer term goal of raising the personal allowance to £14k and eliminating all working tax credits except for the first three children. Let people keep more of their own money. Higher wages, less corporate welfare and less means tested bureaucracy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    There is no chance of me voting for Cameron or Miliband, but if people are swayed by Conference speeches, Cameron is on a different level

    Like a Dad vs a student , really I feel like a PB Tory!
  • I await your plaudits on the 40% threshold....
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
    Yes, clearly in this whole subject, I'm the one that has done something wrong.

    We could have a much more sensible discussion if there was a sensible response - or even a half-sensible response - from the government. But there's just a gaping silence.

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?
    As others say - this is tiresome. These are appalling crimes and we should be angry about it.
    But why smear the tory party and make it look like the tories are complicit? Your claims are groundless.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11071148/Institutional-political-correctness-probe-ordered-by-Theresa-May-into-Rotherham-child-abuse-scandal.html
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Kangeroo Trivia

    Apparently the reason they hop is because they can't move their back legs independently.

    Is a jumbo rabbit a kangaroo?

    Arf - magnificent pedantry Sir..! - What are the chances Cameron 'forgets' to mention them..?
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Perhaps Cameron will use his speech to announce that a national crime force will be created to get to the bottom of industrial-scale child rape from grooming gangs?

    It would be a bit tasteless to announce it during a conference, but given that it would be a complete abdication of duty of a prime minister to just let this massive level of abuse slide into obscurity, I'm sure Cameron won't do that. I'm sure the PM wouldn't want Rotherham-style levels of abuse elsewhere to go undiscovered due to political concerns...

    You do realise that you've managed to kill off any sensible discussion on that subject?
    Yes, clearly in this whole subject, I'm the one that has done something wrong.

    We could have a much more sensible discussion if there was a sensible response - or even a half-sensible response - from the government. But there's just a gaping silence.

    Although I do understand why Cameron supporters just want people to shut up about the biggest crime wave and political cover-up in decades not being addressed. Things like the hacking of Milly Dowler's phone are more important and big public inquiries should be restricted to that sort of stuff right?
    As others say - this is tiresome. These are appalling crimes and we should be angry about it.
    But why smear the tory party and make it look like the tories are complicit? Your claims are groundless.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11071148/Institutional-political-correctness-probe-ordered-by-Theresa-May-into-Rotherham-child-abuse-scandal.html
    Four years in government and that's all you've got to show is it ?

    Please answer the following questions:

    1) When its Home Secretary Theresa May going to take action against the South Yorkshire Police following widespread media reports about their collaboration with child rapists.

    2) When is Children's Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham's Child Services into special measures.

    3) How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.

    4) Why has Prime Minister David Cameron allowed at least three government departments to take no action despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' whilst Leader of the Opposition.
This discussion has been closed.