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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?
Coupled with the seven day a week GP promise announced yesterday, it is clear what the Tories will be focussing upon. I suspect the NHS will form a key part of the election battle. It will be risky business for both the Blues and Reds.
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http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/brown-accuses-cameron-of-setting-trap-for-scots-voters.25475080
Although, you wonder why they bother, as neither will match Jeanette Krankie.
So how is he going to do it? The answer must be to tie the NHS to his strong point in the economy. His line will be that unless you have sensible and competent policies on the economy and, above all, deal with the deficit, it will not be possible to protect the NHS.
I suspect that he will also major on the point that the Tories are willing to tell us, and at least in part have told us, where the necessary and inevitable cuts will fall to allow the NHS to be protected. A person not willing to say where the cuts will fall cannot be trusted in the same way.
Will it work? Doubtful. The Labour lead on the NHS is too great. Fighting the battle on someone else's ground is rarely a good idea. He would have been better playing to his strengths. But it is brave.
Which is hardly a manifesto for governing the country. The paucity of policy was on show at Doncaster.
I suspect that come late 2015, when he has voted 95%+ of the time with the Conservatives, Douglas Carswell will be wondering "what was the point to it all?" As he fails to stop Ed Miliband from enacting a raft of legislation that makes his blood boil.
And Mark Reckless will be wondering the same, as he takes another forlorn trip down to the Job Centre to see if anybody wants to employ an arsehole....
01.10.14 SNP 43, Labour 23.
01.10.13 Labour 39, SNP 23
Carswell will also note that Ed has no intention of attempting any renegotiation of powers with the EU, that the serious and obvious implications for the UK in an ever more integrated Eurozone is something that apparently passes him by and does not concern him and that any discussion of a possible referendum on membership will be met with derision.
But he will have been right won't he? The same as these loons have been "right" since 1992. And have done nothing but harm.
Con 35%, Lab 25%, UKIP 23%. SNP to poll more in Scotland than LDs do in the whole of Great Britain. (Dunno if Nick Palmer is still happy with my £20 to charity or not.)
1. The economy / public finances
2. Immigration
3. NHS
Dave would be a fruitloop to focus mainly on No3 - which is Labour's pet. OK to go on protective manoeuvres here and offer comfort on 'NHS safe with us'- but the core GE stuff must also be on 1 and 2.
Ozzy has set out clear blue water between the Tories and Labour on 1 - and needs to keep pushing and extending this lead and further undermine voter confidence in Labour economic competence. A bit of fearmongering about interest rates and ability to pay for anything when Ed N Ed wreck the economy all over again is on the cards.
On 2 - well this is a UKIP strength more than a Tory one. Still in need of some red meat from Dave.
Whether it's a good idea to pour yet more money into the bottomless pit of the NHS, at the expense of other deserving government departments, with no real notable improvement in national health outcomes, is another matter.
For me the bigger picture is that the Tories appear hungry for power and are up for a fight - in contrast with Labour last week. Given the hill they have to climb, just as well.......
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-30/if-something-rattles-ponzi-scheme-life-america-will-change-overnight
Thing is - it's right. And what's more, pretty much the same is true of us. What will happen to the UK when we stop being able to borrow vast amounts of money very cheaply? Answer: Things get ugly. Let's stop borrowing. Let's balance the books and slowly start to repay our debt. The one really hopeful thing for the UK vs USA is that we at least borrow long and don't have nearly the same pressure to keep rolling over short term bonds.
Lefties - read the article and engage critical thinking circuits. Your 'jam tomorrow' dreams depend on it getting this right. Everything does.
"We have moved from a deference society to a reference society".
By which he meant that in days before IT, people listened to and often accepted the views of politicians, commentators and the press (a top down society). Today opinions are formed on blogs, web-sites, Twitter, Facebook etc and so it has become a bottom up society which allows one-topic movements to grow and then perhaps die when their time has moved on.
So that is why politicians have become so disrespected (of course the expenses scandal did not help). So will we see a call for errant politicians "A la lanterne!"?
And your "jam" relies on having a functioning society.
Screw it up, and it will be on the kitchen floor sticky side down.
1) Why hasn't Home Secretary Theresa May taken action against the South Yorkshire Police after the media reports of their collaboration with child rapists.
2) Why hasn't Children's Minister Edward Timpson placed Rotherham Children's Services into special measures.
3) How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and how did she act on her knowledge.
4) Why has Prime Minister David Cameron allowed at least three government departments to take no action after his emphasis as Leader of the Opposition on 'Broken Britain'.
Importance to:
Country: 14 (-3)
You/Your family: 8 (-2)
@andyburnhammp: NHS facing huge funding pressures in 2015-20 Parliament. It is just not credible for Tories to make new promises without finding new money.
So Labour agree credibility on the NHS is intimately tied to economic credibility.
Oops
BTW this is not a critique of the article one way or the other. Part of me is quite taken with the idea of Marx's prophesy - capitalism collapsing under its own contradictions - being fulfilled in my lifetime.
THE big challenge for politiicans is to find a way to balance the books and somehow keep the whole shebang from going splat. I think the Tories have given this some thought - imperfect for sure, but it exists. It is clear Labour have not even started to consider the risk.
Another Cash appears who has the same christian name as his slightly fruitcake father and is joining UKIP. Fruitcakery runs in families?
Guido's team turns honey trap and persuades a Tory minister to send pictures of his pen*s by phone. (Seriously!)
The aptly named Reckless defects to the fruitcakes and gets called 'a liar' by 'Michael Green' the most accomplished since Profumo.
Stuart Wheeler 'the Dealer' and Tory donor reveals himself as the man behind the defections to UKIP. (It must have been difficult getting him to out himself!)
Kenneth Clarke describes UKIPers as sad old men with pointless lives.
At which point Neil Hamilton shows up.......
......And all against the backdrop of what used to be called the 'Blue Rinse Hang 'em and flog 'em show'
We are also seeing many chickens coming home to roost from the destructive changes in postgraduate medical training carried out by Patricia Hewitt. There simply are not enough GPs being trained to deliver the services required in primary care. All too often GP Trainees are used to prop up hospital rotas rather than train for general practice.
The conversation on the NHS misses the only thing that really needs to be discussed: How do we ration demand? Do we restrict what is covered or do we charge co-payments? Simply pretending that everyone can have every bit of health care free, quickly and of the highest quality is just lying to the public.
Speaking of irony upthread - it's amazing how Alanis Morrisette managed to get that almost entirely wrong in a song about it.
Unfortunate coincidences or rain on your wedding day is not irony.
Everyone knows the risk, but the idea that you reduce poverty by making the rich wealthier at the expense of those below is insane.
The only thing that trickles down from above these days is sewage, and even the more bovine amongst the population are starting to notice.
Like (even as a blue man).
Tony stole the Tory's clothes by doing exactly that. He couldn't keep it up forever - but managed it long enough to get elected 3x.
I'm sure a few of us on here have done something similar in our professional lives - it's not impossible, just really hard.
As Faslane is included, I wonder if this announcement had been delayed, pending the result of the Scot’s indy result?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29438640
If an MP defected during the speech (or shortly before/after) that wouldn't strike me as a lark, but Farage and that MP acting as juvenile delinquents. If it's about principle, then resignation should occur when the mind changes. Reckless and this theoretical third MP would be certainly defecting as a political stunt, like Quentin Davies [I believe that's his surname] did when he jumped ship to Labour.
Can't speak for anyone else (except the enormo-haddock, of course, and the octo-lemurs) but it just puts me off.
Fortune favours the brave as the saying goes.
If they don't have a MP to defect timed for Cameron's speech then it raises the question: why didn't UKIP hold Reckless back until Wednesday? Or, more conspiratorially, a defectee has pulled out at the last minute. Possible under threat from Boris.
We seem reluctant to confront the central issue on the NHS. It's becoming a geriatric service and therefore a very expensive one.
A victim of modern medicine.
Pretending that re-organisation or ring fencing is the answer is ignoring the facts
In the CCG area where I live the decision has been made to stop funding all artificial fertilisation. No ifs, no buts. all of it. If a couple can’t get “her” pregnant, then the NHS can’t help. We haven’t had a “hard case” yet, but unquestionably we will do at some point.
Also haven't seen audreyanne confirm the bet she proposed - she suggested a bet that the Tories would be (I think) 8 points clear, I said yes, would she like £10 or £20, but I've not seen a reply yet (may have just missed it).
On topic, if Mr Cameron wants to fight the election on the NHS, that's absolutely fine with us. Bring it on!
Could be that Reckless decided that defecting just after Dave's speech was a step to far?
Though from a political point of view, it is the best time, "I waited to see if Dave would address the countries concerns, alas....." ?
Firms that do social media engagement/are on their toes about listening to their customers tend to be fairly safe, it's when it comes to longer term stuff that it becomes too fragmented and corporates tend to fail to explain in the right way. It comes out as boardroom/shareholder driven rather than customer driven = even if they're often the same thing in the end.
Politicians do the same - policies pop out of apparently nowhere, create a fuss and then get dropped too often. The more this happens as a result of fact-free opinions on Twitter et al - the more the public will take notice/learn to mob bully them instead.
In many ways - it's a good turn of the wheel. Politicians just need to get a lot sharper about it. And most of all, learn that whipping up a cheap mob will rebound on them all soon enough.
However, in issues affecting your country, economy has bounced back to level with immigration and health has increased again.
On issue affecting you and your family, economy has increased its lead over health.
Also 40% of the VI think that the Cons would eliminate the deficit by 2020, but only 17% believe Labour would. Is this a matter of capability or being trusted to keep promises?
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/30/tories-twice-trusted-deficit/
Devolving budgets and supervision to local councils does have attractions (and is a policy that UKIP have copied from Labour, though Labour themselves have copied the majority of it from Norman Lambs work as minister) but also risks. Local councils can run very poor services if they are one party states such as Rotherham.
Mr Banks, who has donated more than £250,000 to the Tories since David Cameron became leader in 2005, is to give a £100,000 cheque to UKIP leader Nigel Farage........Mr Farage said Mr Banks had also expressed an interest in standing as a candidate for UKIP in next year's general election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29438653
http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/intelligencer/2014/09/22/22-debt-chart2.w529.h352.png
to this:
http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/intelligencer/2014/09/22/22-debt-chart.w529.h352.png
The only sensible way to look at government debt is relative to ability to pay, i.e. GDP. The Zero Hedge article puts these numbers in absolute, nominal terms just to seem scary. But it's clearly just scaremongering.
It was ever thus.
The "market" should be used for things it is best suited for, state ownership where the market fails.
Neither is right or wrong, but they prioritize different things.
We probably need to move our entire welfare state to a contributory one.
And on what part of Labour's record on the NHS would you fight?
We also need to make sure both parties lay out some serious policies on funding social care: all this mud slinging about 'death' taxes and so on is ridiculous.
"Quite a clever trick, politically, if he can pull it off. Cameron intends to use one of his major strengths to pull the rug from under Labour's greatest strength, and therefore make it his own."
As an ex ad man I'm surprised Cameron doesn't understand that while Labour are the market leader in health any attention that Cameron gives it will inevitably help them not the Tories.
(1) Only UK registered voters should be allowed to donate to political parties
(2) The amount any single voter can donate in an election cycle should be capped to a relatively low figure (say £5000).
And now I must go...
All parties should take on board that the NHS is paid for by rich people. The more rich people we can extract taxes from, the more health carefree at the point of use we can have. Idiot Miliband's determination to drive away such people for petty politics needs to be pointed to as the real risk to the NHS.
The only sensible way to look at government debt is relative to ability to pay, i.e. GDP. The Zero Hedge article puts these numbers in absolute, nominal terms just to seem scary. But it's clearly just scaremongering.
Hmmm..GDP is a very dangerous thing to celebrate if its growth is itself debt driven. I remember Gordon Brown standing at the dispatch box patting himself on the back quarter after quarter of growth - and failing utterly to understand that the growth was bought with debt not real productive growth. He bequeathed us a monster. Same for the USA. If the GDP growth is borrowed then what happens to GDP when the borrowing has to stop?
The Tories' problem is different: the public perceive that they do not care about the NHS and are always interested how to bring in the private sector through the back or, indeed, the front door !
I am not sure that the Tories can pull off the same trick.
Modern medicine is at the point where we could extend the life of a great many of our population, through drugs and transplants, if the finance was there. It isn't.
I spent most of yesterday evening and the last couple of hours trying to tax a vehicle that I unexpectedly need to use today. The online system either refuses to load, or crashes every few seconds. Try clicking apply here... https://www.gov.uk/tax-disc
Telephoning them just produces an answerphone message about maintenance, and advising to try again later.
GDP is a nonsense figure for looking at economic health, but it makes good headlines and is relatively easy to manipulate.
If everyone stopped smoking overnight, the health deficit would become worse. If everybody stopped drinking, it'd become better.
Yawn ! - yesterday's news.
""Honda and McLaren want to hit the ground running. They want Alonso or Sebastian Vettel and it's possible both could wind up there."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29422678
Eddie Jordan's mad as a box of frogs, but he called the move of Hamilton to Mercedes months ahead of time.
The NHS funding crisis won't solve itself. I doubt that antibiotic resistance will come to the rescue and so "old man's friend" , AKA pneumonia, won't be the answer. Perhaps we should not strive so officiously. When an old car starts breaking down daily, we face facts.
As an old git myself, I hope I'd accept that quality of life is the issue. I know doctors are reluctant to stop if there is medical help available, and families are understandably in favour of more procedures but there needs to be a limit. But I doubt we'll ever have this conversation with politicians.
Research into drugs is usually completed by private companies, and being private companies, their priorities are different from the population as a whole.
Two examples:-
Pushing anti daihorea drugs onto third world countries for use with infants and toddlers, knowing full well it increases dehydration.
Disparaging research into the cause of stomach ulcers until the patent on their non effective drug lapsed.
You can find many other examples where profit has come before welfare, the above were just off the top of my head.
"In a letter to his Constituency Labour Party in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, he wrote: "The Tory trap that we are in danger of falling into is to devolve all decisions on Scotland's income tax rates away from Westminster and then to deny Scotland representation in votes on budget decisions on income tax rates.""
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29432379
I think it's nuts to give over full taxation powers. But there we are.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/a-flu-pandemic-could-decide-next-years-election-9765841.html
More evidence that the key battleground will not be the deficit - as I forecast on here long ago and which Antifrank enthusiastically countered. Looks like I will be right and he wrong. The Tory record on the deficit is too poor to make it a battleground - and most of the public don't understand it and think we are actually paying off our debts.
One needs to look at the fiscal issues as a whole. People with unhealthy lifestyles have low life expectancy. That means they impose a lesser burden on the Pensions budget, as well as requiring fewer years of end of life care.
Rationing in the NHS has always been fairly covert, often under the mechanism of waiting lists and times. This is now unpopular but we do have rationing via NICE and rather Orwellian named "referal centres" (whose role is to not refer) and "patient access policies" ((which function to deny patients access to the hospital).
The sick are overwhelmingly poor, elderly or both and cannot be expected to pay for themselves; but the majority of those who pay for the service are generally healthy, in work and more affluent. It does need to be borne in mind that these are not a permanent division and the latter may be related to the first, or at risk of being poor sick and elderly themselves in time.
We need a system that is affordable, humane to the first category but also meets the needs of the latter.
The latter group are the people who want seven day access to urgent care for acute health issues and easily accessible elective surgery. The problem is that they can only get these at the expense of the first group, unless the total pool of funding and of skilled practitioners grows.
What we need is a system of "Speedy Boarding" where co-payments fund the extra costs of providing services out of hours. So GPs remain free if you want to see them 0830-1800, but cost £20 at weekends for example. For many of us the cost of the co-payment would be less than the cost of time off work. This is a fairly established business practice in many markets, so pubs transport and barbers all have cheap deals at off peak times. The NHS could and should do the same.