A good Leader needs to pick his fights carefully, and make sure he wins them.
It seems DC took stock of the Clacton situation and wisely decided not to put more than taken forces into it. It seems he has decided to fight and fight hard in Rochester.
It's far too early to tell whether he has called Rochester right but it is absolutely essential he wins, otherwise UKIP will be all the stronger for having taken on and defeated the enemy at its full force. The consequences so close to an election could be far-reaching.
It seems to me the risks are very great in relation to the potential rewards. UKIP are likely to be fighting off the back of a win in Clacton, quite possibly a rout. And there may be further defections before we get to Rochester.
Brave, Dave, very brave.
Why would the same people who voted Reckless overwhelmingly as their MP (with no UKIP opposition), who then voted overwhelmingly for UKIP in the locals and Euros (With non Reckless tory opposition) not vote for Reckless as the UKIP candidate?
The only thing stopping this being ridiculous value at 8/11 ( given its similarities to Clacton in almost every way measurable election data wise) is the "Angry Tories" rumour, which smacks of wishful thinking to me
They said the same when Carswell defected, they're just pretending they didn't now because he is going to win so easily... look back at the threads
I suspect you are right, Isam, but Dave appears to have adopted a stand and fight hard strategy this time. Let's see how it goes.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
I have always believed that the Conservative Party shouldn't shy away from taking the fight to UKIP. They shouldn't pander to them or their agenda, they should embrace the fact that UKIP has in fact become a very effective detox for the Conservatives Party brand over the last couple of years.
Two unsupported assertions in a single post with no other content. That's impressive, even by your standards.
Does this really have to be spelt out? The long-term survival of elected officials is entirely dependent on having a large base of support in the electorate. Because voters elect representatives, not the other way round. Thus voters are the most important base. If you look at the emergence of every new party: Labour, the SNP etc, has started with getting the popular base there first.
These are not your votes, they belong to the people that cast them. Someone mentioned that downthread and it was a smart observation.
I have a strong faith in the fundamental decency of the British public, and they will continue decisively rejecting the hatred, bitterness and parochialism that UKIP represent, fortunately.
What happens if Dave has to do a deal with UKIP, and Farage sends Reckless and Carswell to negotiate for him? Calling them fruitcakes and racists is bad enough, but to imply your rivals are sexual deviants or perverts doesn't look statesmanlike.
It s the kind of thing I used to do as a teenager when I thought my girlfriend might fancy another bloke
The Tories are looking like David Brent when Neil turned up in the 2nd series of The Office
Are you serious
The pure anger shown by Kippers on here when anyone dare criticise the glorious Nigel is venomous. And you moan when the tories get angry with someone who has spent the last few months lying continuosly to his local party and costing them £1000s in wasted leaflets.
Take a look at some of your and your ilks comments over the last few months, you lot should be the last to criticize.
Clearly untrue since I criticise Farage almost daily and get no abuse for it. Many of the Tories on here are utter hypocrites and generally much prefer to smear than to have a constructive argument.
It is notable that we can have a far more reasoned and informed discussion with Labour or non - party contributors who do not tend to throw insults than we can with many Tories (with some honorable exceptions.
So you are on here most days and you have never seen a Kipper write a venomous attack on anyone who has criticized Farage or UKIP?
Nothing that even comes close to the sort of vitriol poured on any Kipper who dares to attack the blessed Dave. The party fanatics are there on both sides. The sense of self righteous indignation and belief that they have a natural right to all Right wing votes is the preserve of the Tories.
I am happy to be rude about Dave and George when I see they make wrong moves. Richard you to at least have a more measured and informed view on Farage. But some of the Kippers on here are as bad or worse than the true blue tories. Almost as if they are in that first phase of love where they are so infatuated with the new person that they only notice the few good points and ignore the many more obvious faults.
What happens if Dave has to do a deal with UKIP, and Farage sends Reckless and Carswell to negotiate for him? Calling them fruitcakes and racists is bad enough, but to imply your rivals are sexual deviants or perverts doesn't look statesmanlike.
It s the kind of thing I used to do as a teenager when I thought my girlfriend might fancy another bloke
The Tories are looking like David Brent when Neil turned up in the 2nd series of The Office
Are you serious
The pure anger shown by Kippers on here when anyone dare criticise the glorious Nigel is venomous. And you moan when the tories get angry with someone who has spent the last few months lying continuosly to his local party and costing them £1000s in wasted leaflets.
Take a look at some of your and your ilks comments over the last few months, you lot should be the last to criticize.
Clearly untrue since I criticise Farage almost daily and get no abuse for it. Many of the Tories on here are utter hypocrites and generally much prefer to smear than to have a constructive argument.
It is notable that we can have a far more reasoned and informed discussion with Labour or non - party contributors who do not tend to throw insults than we can with many Tories (with some honorable exceptions.
So you are on here most days and you have never seen a Kipper write a venomous attack on anyone who has criticized Farage or UKIP?
Nothing that even comes close to the sort of vitriol poured on any Kipper who dares to attack the blessed Dave. The party fanatics are there on both sides. The sense of self righteous indignation and belief that they have a natural right to all Right wing votes is the preserve of the Tories.
I must be very blind when I read the comments on this site.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
I suspect that UKIP do not want a referendum because they fear they will lose it. The establishment will be out in force saying that the sky will fall in if we leave the EU. A similar thing happened over Scottish independence. Like it or not this kind of thing is a powerful influence.
It does rather beg the question of how UKIP intends to get where it wants to be on the EU. I am genuinely interested to know.
Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs?
Cameron has worked out a method to have a referendum without actually settling anything, which is to propose a "renegotiation" but on a timetable where nothing can actually be settled and all he'll have is some vague promises that he'll exaggerate the meaning of. That means he can probably get a win for "in", but a couple of years later UKIP will be truthfully saying the voters were lied to about what they were voting for.
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
Potential voters for the Green Party would doubtless now be feeling a bit let down if they had "voted blue to go green", as Cameron encouraged them to do before the 2010 election.
You can't blame people for wanting their vote to count by casting it for a more authentic party - rather than one of the mainstream parties that have proved themselves to be so untrustworthy so often.
However much I might have a grain of sympathy with some Ukip policies I can't get my head around the basic fact their growing popularity will simply result in a Labour victory in 2015 following which any chance of a referendum will be scuppered and inevitable national decline will ensue as Labour tax policy frightens away the exact people and businesses this country needs in the next five years. Come 2020 we'll have a new set of protagonists, a reduced national situation and absolutely no guarantee of an EU referendum - so where's the gain Mr Farage?
You seriously expect UKIP to throw in everything they've achieved as a party for the off-chance Cameron can win? The Tories aren't even willing to give up 3% of their seats for a deal that would guarantee them victory...
What has UKIP achieved?
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Would that be on the number of MPs or local councillors?
On the number of voters that support them - the most important measure of party strength.
Not under the British electoral system it isn't.
Long-term it is. UKIP clearly have more of a future than the Lib Dems.
How? If we have a referendum and leave the EC, UKIP then has no future, job done.
Oh yes that is the fear that the UKIP Leadership have now that the Conservatives are committed to a referendum by a specific date. The gravy train may end.
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
However much I might have a grain of sympathy with some Ukip policies I can't get my head around the basic fact their growing popularity will simply result in a Labour victory in 2015 following which any chance of a referendum will be scuppered and inevitable national decline will ensue as Labour tax policy frightens away the exact people and businesses this country needs in the next five years. Come 2020 we'll have a new set of protagonists, a reduced national situation and absolutely no guarantee of an EU referendum - so where's the gain Mr Farage?
You seriously expect UKIP to throw in everything they've achieved as a party for the off-chance Cameron can win? The Tories aren't even willing to give up 3% of their seats for a deal that would guarantee them victory...
What has UKIP achieved?
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Would that be on the number of MPs or local councillors?
On the number of voters that support them - the most important measure of party strength.
Not under the British electoral system it isn't.
Long-term it is. UKIP clearly have more of a future than the Lib Dems.
How? If we have a referendum and leave the EC, UKIP then has no future, job done.
Oh yes that is the fear that the UKIP Leadership have now that the Conservatives are committed to a referendum by a specific date. The gravy train may end.
UKIP don't want a referendum because they are scared they will win. UKIP don't want a referendum because they are scared that they will lose. There is truly room for every argument on pb.com.
UKIP supporters aren't fools. They've seen what happened to left-wing MPs and supporters of Labour during the Blair years. They were almost entirely ignored. They had nowhere else to go. The party leadership took them completely for granted as they cosied up to the City of London and the CBI.
UKIP supporters know that if they want to get what they want then they have to vote for it. There's no point in voting for someone they don't really want because he offers slightly more of what they want than the other guy they don't want. That way they will always lose, as the left-wing voters for Labour have always lost.
This way they at least have a chance of winning, and the success that they do have puts their priorities right into the centre of political debate.
Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs?
Cameron has worked out a method to have a referendum without actually settling anything, which is to propose a "renegotiation" but on a timetable where nothing can actually be settled and all he'll have is some vague promises that he'll exaggerate the meaning of. That means he can probably get a win for "in", but a couple of years later UKIP will be truthfully saying the voters were lied to about what they were voting for.
Dan Hannan certainly doesn't have that view. Interviewed by Andrew Neil at the conference he not only declared he was remaining with the Tories but also BOOers could win the referendum whatever minor concessions DC came up with and however he dressed them up.
Surely if an argument's good enough it will win. I for one could vote either way in 2017 depending on the circumstances and I suspect the middle wedge of voters that need to be won over in a referendum take a similar view.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
This, basically. UKIP have no intention of holding a referendum ever. To the extent that Farage says differently, he is simply lying. He is 100% Establishment figure so it's to be expected.
I regard UKIP and Labour with utter contempt for the same reason. Both are prepared to subject the country to socialist misrule simply to keep their snouts in the trough, and both are lying about it.
The Kippers are useful but it is Tory ineptitude that is to blame for Labour's rise.
As the party cannot even hold on to its own MPs I think serious questions need to be asked.
Sadly many Tories on here are that ultimate party loyalists and cannot see why it is their party's own fault, trying endlessly to blame others.
well to a point but what exactly is the fault then that is causing the rise of UKIP? Is it that the tories are not right wing enough now ? should they have opposed gay marriage for example? Do you blame the tories for not doing that?
The tory party has to be a wide church ,especially in coalition with the Lib Dems .It is in fact essential to good government in this 2010-2015 period. If some ex-supporters and ex- Mps think that it needs to be less of a wide church then there is not much to say or do other than to try and govern with inclusion
I've been through phases where Labour was doing badly and people were defecting. I never thought it wise to insult them, if only because people would reasonably say "Hey, you didn't say that last week", and think we were being hypocritical either last week or this week or both. I'm sure Reckless can find some 2010 quotes from Cameron saying he's the right choice.
The tactical vote situation is interesting now. Would Tories here recommend Tories in Heywood & Middleton to vote Labour (to stop the UKIP bandwagon in its tracks) or UKIP (to spread the impact to Labour) or Tory (even though they clearly can't win there)? Will Labour voters in Rochester rally to the Tories (to defeat the lesser right-wing candidate) or UKIP (to wind up the Tories some more) or Labour (to keep the flag flying and maybe even win)? If the advice is to stick to the party you really support, it's difficult to urge Kippers to vote tactically elsewhere, isn't it?
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
And still the Tories don't get it. People are abandoning the Tory party because they don't like you. If you want to stop that happening stop alienating your natural support. You can't simultaneously claim that you can only win from the centre and then blame UKIP for costing you the election when they pick up the voters you have abandoned on the right.
Gary Gibbon runs the rule over 2 of the candidates for the Tory leadership and also says the cunning Tory plan is to delay the Rochester by-election until December.Ms May,rather than Johnson, impresses with her ability to understand the fundamental essence of the Tory party from the performances today.Still value at 9-2 2nd fav and Johnson is a false fav..IMHO.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
I suspect that UKIP do not want a referendum because they fear they will lose it. The establishment will be out in force saying that the sky will fall in if we leave the EU. A similar thing happened over Scottish independence. Like it or not this kind of thing is a powerful influence.
It does rather beg the question of how UKIP intends to get where it wants to be on the EU. I am genuinely interested to know.
UKIP is already right where it wants to be on the EU: in stasis.
There's a niche for loony parties to the tune of probably 5 to 6% of the vote. UKIP's goal is to occupy that niche and stay there forever.
If they actually wanted EU exit, they would disband.
OK I finally got the Opinium tables - from Opinium themselves! Apparently their website is undergoing maintenance, or at least that's what they emailed me!
Plugging into the other data for polls fieldwork ending 21st to 27th September, gives us a Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 28th Sep of:
Lab 36.0% (+0.8 on last week) Con 31.7% (-0.0) UKIP 14.7% (-0.6) LD 7.3% (-0.4)
Lab lead 4.4% (+0.8 on last week)
Changes from our very first ELBOW for week-ending 17th August:
It is laughable posts of that nature which is what I am driving at. If the Tories want to avoid socialist misrule as you put it all they need do is win a majority. It's not that tricky. Labour have done it three times in the last 17 years alone.
Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs?
Cameron has worked out a method to have a referendum without actually settling anything, which is to propose a "renegotiation" but on a timetable where nothing can actually be settled and all he'll have is some vague promises that he'll exaggerate the meaning of. That means he can probably get a win for "in", but a couple of years later UKIP will be truthfully saying the voters were lied to about what they were voting for.
Dan Hannan certainly doesn't have that view. Interviewed by Andrew Neil at the conference he not only declared he was remaining with the Tories but also BOOers could win the referendum whatever minor concessions DC came up with and however he dressed them up.
Surely if an argument's good enough it will win. I for one could vote either way in 2017 depending on the circumstances and I suspect the middle wedge of voters that need to be won over in a referendum take a similar view.
If that was right then that wouldn't be the end of UKIP either, because once you've done "out" you then have the question of what kind of out, which covers a huge range of potential arrangements. In particular any future deal with the EU would involve all kinds of concessions that most British voters would think were over-generous, and UKIP would have at least as much success running against those as they do running against the current EU.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
I suspect that UKIP do not want a referendum because they fear they will lose it. The establishment will be out in force saying that the sky will fall in if we leave the EU. A similar thing happened over Scottish independence. Like it or not this kind of thing is a powerful influence.
It does rather beg the question of how UKIP intends to get where it wants to be on the EU. I am genuinely interested to know.
UKIP is already right where it wants to be on the EU: in stasis.
There's a niche for loony parties to the tune of probably 5 to 6% of the vote. UKIP's goal is to occupy that niche and stay there forever.
If they actually wanted EU exit, they would disband.
The Farage Party can't do that - what would Nigel do for a living?
UKIP supporters aren't fools. They've seen what happened to left-wing MPs and supporters of Labour during the Blair years. They were almost entirely ignored. They had nowhere else to go. The party leadership took them completely for granted as they cosied up to the City of London and the CBI.
UKIP supporters know that if they want to get what they want then they have to vote for it. There's no point in voting for someone they don't really want because he offers slightly more of what they want than the other guy they don't want. That way they will always lose, as the left-wing voters for Labour have always lost.
Are you quite sure they're not fools? For one thing, they don't seem to know what they want.
Referendum on leaving the EU? That was the overwhelming demand from Cameron, so much so that they invented an entire mythology that he had offered it and reneged on the promise, which is obvious nonsense. Now that he has agreed to it for the next parliament, they've decided they don't want it after all.
Flat-rate taxes and scrapping of national insurance? That was what they wanted in 2010 in the manifesto Nigel Farage launched. Now they've decided they don't want that.
Replace VAT with a Local Sales Tax? No, now they want to increase VAT on fancy handbags. Oh, sorry, that was Saturday's policy. Now they don't want to raise VAT on fancy handbags.
Abolish inheritance tax at "earliest opportunity"? I think that's vanished, hasn't it?
EU citizens who arrived in UK after January 2004 treated as non-EU immigrants? In the bin, I believe.
Key NHS services put out to tender? That was in the 2010 manifesto, now they seem to be arguing the opposite.
Admittedly I might have got some of this wrong. Who knows what they want? Does anyone?
I think destabilising the Tories by soft pedalling is the strategy, based on the simple Game Theory equation of doing what you chief opponent least wants you to do.
Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs?
Cameron has worked out a method to have a referendum without actually settling anything, which is to propose a "renegotiation" but on a timetable where nothing can actually be settled and all he'll have is some vague promises that he'll exaggerate the meaning of. That means he can probably get a win for "in", but a couple of years later UKIP will be truthfully saying the voters were lied to about what they were voting for.
Dan Hannan certainly doesn't have that view. Interviewed by Andrew Neil at the conference he not only declared he was remaining with the Tories but also BOOers could win the referendum whatever minor concessions DC came up with and however he dressed them up.
Surely if an argument's good enough it will win. I for one could vote either way in 2017 depending on the circumstances and I suspect the middle wedge of voters that need to be won over in a referendum take a similar view.
Plenty of BOOers give the impression they would still vote to leave the EU even if Cameron got a settlement of a trillion pounds a year from Brussels, pulled along the Eurotunnel and hand-delivered to Folkestone in a cart by Delors and van Rompuy. They are terrified that the British people might look at what Dave acheives, shrug their shoulders, and say "yeah, that will do for me...." So terrified, they lose all reason and would rather have Ed Miliband spend the next five years chaining Britain to Brussels.
I for one am delighted the Tory party is now riled up about UKIP. About bloody time. UKIP are just a party of complete and utter stunts....
This, basically. UKIP have no intention of holding a referendum ever. To the extent that Farage says differently, he is simply lying. He is 100% Establishment figure so it's to be expected.
I regard UKIP and Labour with utter contempt for the same reason. Both are prepared to subject the country to socialist misrule simply to keep their snouts in the trough, and both are lying about it.
Oh dear. Next you will be telling me that Alex Salmond does not want independence for Scotland. Seriously are you that thick? The man has spent his whole career calling for withdrawal from the EU. Do you not think that should he get the opportunity that he will take it?
The lengths the Tories are now going to to justify themselves is quite pathetic. You need professional help because you are going into tin-foil hat territory. Its complete insanity to suggest that a party that would impose strict controls on immigration, scrap the higher rate of income tax, scrap green subsidies, withdraw from the EU, allow Grammar schools to return, devolve power within the NHS and is probably the most authentic decentralist party in this country is socialist. It is an utter nonsense and all I can suggest to Tories is they need to get their sad little two dimensional heads out of their nether orifices double quick before they lose this coming election to the real socialists.
UKIP supporters aren't fools. They've seen what happened to left-wing MPs and supporters of Labour during the Blair years. They were almost entirely ignored. They had nowhere else to go. The party leadership took them completely for granted as they cosied up to the City of London and the CBI.
UKIP supporters know that if they want to get what they want then they have to vote for it. There's no point in voting for someone they don't really want because he offers slightly more of what they want than the other guy they don't want. That way they will always lose, as the left-wing voters for Labour have always lost.
Are you quite sure they're not fools? For one thing, they don't seem to know what they want.
Referendum on leaving the EU? That was the overwhelming demand from Cameron, so much so that they invented an entire mythology that he had offered it and reneged on the promise, which is obvious nonsense. Now that he has agreed to it for the next parliament, they've decided they don't want it after all.
Flat-rate taxes and scrapping of national insurance? That was what they wanted in 2010 in the manifesto Nigel Farage launched. Now they've decided they don't want that.
Replace VAT with a Local Sales Tax? No, now they want to increase VAT on fancy handbags. Oh, sorry, that was Saturday's policy. Now they don't want to raise VAT on fancy handbags.
Abolish inheritance tax at "earliest opportunity"? I think that's vanished, hasn't it?
EU citizens who arrived in UK after January 2004 treated as non-EU immigrants? In the bin, I believe.
Key NHS services put out to tender? That was in the 2010 manifesto, now they seem to be arguing the opposite.
Admittedly I might have got some of this wrong. Who knows what they want? Does anyone?
What they still want and will always want is the right to whinge that ' everything is rubbish' -A totally negative party that has had one great achievement in getting Cameron to have a referendum on EU membership (surely that is the holy grail for a party called UKIP?) and then when Cameron gives them what they want they start getting cold feet ,start worrying about their Euro expenses (legal or not-look at the past record of UKIP MEPS), stat thinking they wil not be able to moan anymore that they are downtrodden.
The tactical vote situation is interesting now. Would Tories here recommend Tories in Heywood & Middleton to vote Labour (to stop the UKIP bandwagon in its tracks) or UKIP (to spread the impact to Labour) or Tory (even though they clearly can't win there)?
When I lived in Brent East, a marginal between Labour and LibDems, I voted for whoever was in second place. The result would in either case produce an anti-Conservative candidate, so my thinking was that if you can keep them both wasting their resources fighting each other, they will each stand slightly less chance in other seats where it's Lab vs Tory or LD versus Tory. Of course this only works if others do the same.
I would do the same here for the same reason. Voting either UKIP or Labour leads to a Labour government, and the Conservative can't win, so how I vote makes no difference to the outcome. I would thus vote in whatever way maximised the damage to UKIP and Labour.
It is thus possible to vote UKIP as an anti-UKIP strategy. I did much the same in the euros; I voted for An Independence From Europe, because I hoped that if enough others did the same the big fraud Farage would be suckered into wasting resource trying to get the result changed.
In this instance, unlike in Brent, I paid no attention to what this might do to the final outcome, because in the euros, the result does not matter. Euro elections are, so far as I can tell, wholly and completely pointless because MEPs do no useful work of any kind.
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
IIRC it was one of the Carousel models so all very flashy, with bronze paint and a black vinyl roof. Went like a bomb - in a straight line. Try taking on country roads and the back end kept trying to overtake the front on corners. Also - NO ONE ever let you out at junctions, you got beeped with a nanosecond of a light turning green and someone would attempt to burn me off at least twice at a day/squeeze me against a bus.
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
UKIP has what a mate of mine called the Ford Capri Problem, back when you saw those around. The Ford Capri is a nicely-styled well-appointed and sporty car, with a powerful engine and a bit of road presence. It looks like the kind of car you'd consider for yourself - right up until the point where you look at who actually drives them. And at that point, you realise you were on the verge of an appalling lapse of taste and judgement.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government. It's not something you contract out to a leader of another party that hates you and has utterly failed to deliver in the past.
UKIP actually have had an achievement and that is to force the tories to offer a referendum . Its ironic that UKIP will now throw this away by splitting the anti-EU vote and allow in a labour government
True. The next question is why the UKIP Leadership do not want that referendum to happen? Is it because they fear that after a referendum there will be no point to UKIP and no point to their jobs? Have they become so reliant upon the money from the EC Parliament that they really do not want the relationship ended?
I suspect that UKIP do not want a referendum because they fear they will lose it. The establishment will be out in force saying that the sky will fall in if we leave the EU. A similar thing happened over Scottish independence. Like it or not this kind of thing is a powerful influence.
It does rather beg the question of how UKIP intends to get where it wants to be on the EU. I am genuinely interested to know.
I imagine that UKIP want to try and win a majority in Parliament and then simply leave the EU.
Is this likely to happen.
Well if labour win the GE they will not only fuck up the country but also their own party. So come the next GE (on 2020 or possibly sooner) who do voters choose.
Well, labour are reasonsible for the currant mess, the tories were useless and the libdems have ceased to exist.
I've been through phases where Labour was doing badly and people were defecting. I never thought it wise to insult them, if only because people would reasonably say "Hey, you didn't say that last week", and think we were being hypocritical either last week or this week or both. I'm sure Reckless can find some 2010 quotes from Cameron saying he's the right choice.
The tactical vote situation is interesting now. Would Tories here recommend Tories in Heywood & Middleton to vote Labour (to stop the UKIP bandwagon in its tracks) or UKIP (to spread the impact to Labour) or Tory (even though they clearly can't win there)? Will Labour voters in Rochester rally to the Tories (to defeat the lesser right-wing candidate) or UKIP (to wind up the Tories some more) or Labour (to keep the flag flying and maybe even win)? If the advice is to stick to the party you really support, it's difficult to urge Kippers to vote tactically elsewhere, isn't it?
lol you can tell you play Diplomacy!! Before Reckless left I would have been pragmatic and voted UKIP to spread the impact to Labour. The timing of the Reckless defection left me angry and so would vote Labour to stop UKIP . Its half pragmatic as well as it could burst the UKIP balloon (or at least stop it inflating)
Given your comments on the last thread I presume you will be offering your legal services at no extra cost on Sunday mornings in future.
I am available 24/7/365 (post-sabbatical). My charge-out arrangements are pre-negotiated and sadly do not normally include any kind of uplift for unsocial hours. That's modern life for a lawyer in 2014.
I imagine that UKIP want to try and win a majority in Parliament and then simply leave the EU.
Is this likely to happen.
Well if labour win the GE they will not only fuck up the country but also their own party. So come the next GE (on 2020 or possibly sooner) who do voters choose.
Well, labour are reasonsible for the currant mess, the tories were useless and the libdems have ceased to exist.
Who is left.
Only UKIP.
UKIP will own the mess Miliband makes too.
You can rest assured of that. There is no happy outcome for UKIP for a country that was doing well but then falls apart because they let Labour in.
Given your comments on the last thread I presume you will be offering your legal services at no extra cost on Sunday mornings in future.
I am available 24/7/365 (post-sabbatical). My charge-out arrangements are pre-negotiated and sadly do not normally include any kind of uplift for unsocial hours. That's modern life for a lawyer in 2014.
So you presume correctly.
does a quick calculation Even with 24 x 7 x 365 hours per year, the hourly rate is not too shabby!
Given your comments on the last thread I presume you will be offering your legal services at no extra cost on Sunday mornings in future.
I am available 24/7/365 (post-sabbatical). My charge-out arrangements are pre-negotiated and sadly do not normally include any kind of uplift for unsocial hours. That's modern life for a lawyer in 2014.
So you presume correctly.
does a quick calculation Even with 24 x 7 x 365 hours per year, the hourly rate is not too shabby!
Given your comments on the last thread I presume you will be offering your legal services at no extra cost on Sunday mornings in future.
I am available 24/7/365 (post-sabbatical). My charge-out arrangements are pre-negotiated and sadly do not normally include any kind of uplift for unsocial hours. That's modern life for a lawyer in 2014.
So you presume correctly.
does a quick calculation Even with 24 x 7 x 365 hours per year, the hourly rate is not too shabby!
i completely agree. Whilst a bit of focused anger can be very healthy when it comes to showing passion or disdain, it's not a substitute for getting even in a smarter way.
I imagine that UKIP want to try and win a majority in Parliament and then simply leave the EU.
Is this likely to happen.
Well if labour win the GE they will not only fuck up the country but also their own party. So come the next GE (on 2020 or possibly sooner) who do voters choose.
Well, labour are reasonsible for the currant mess, the tories were useless and the libdems have ceased to exist.
Who is left.
Only UKIP.
UKIP will own the mess Miliband makes too.
You can rest assured of that. There is no happy outcome for UKIP for a country that was doing well but then falls apart because they let Labour in.
That might be true but the voters wont see it that way.
Also, if the country is up shit creek then UKIP might be able to enforce massive structural change.
I imagine that UKIP want to try and win a majority in Parliament and then simply leave the EU.
Is this likely to happen.
Well if labour win the GE they will not only fuck up the country but also their own party. So come the next GE (on 2020 or possibly sooner) who do voters choose.
Well, labour are reasonsible for the currant mess, the tories were useless and the libdems have ceased to exist.
Who is left.
Only UKIP.
UKIP will own the mess Miliband makes too.
You can rest assured of that. There is no happy outcome for UKIP for a country that was doing well but then falls apart because they let Labour in.
Did the Libdems ever own Labour's mess? The Tories have ensured that every time they whine about UKIP it will be seen as no more than sour grapes. Tories have ensured that people will see them as the jilted resentful partner whose been left behind by people who no longer want anything to do with them. The Tories are the last people who the electorate will listen to about UKIP especially up north where it seems UKIP are getting listened to far more than the Tories have for 30 years.
The one mistake I hope to god that UKIP do not make that the Libdems made is getting into bed with the Tories because to many many swing voters the Tories are toxic.
My favourite lawyers' bills are the ones which read "To considering whether I needed to do anything, and deciding I didn't, £500 + £25 for the email saying I didn't need to do anything" (I paraphrase slightly..)
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
IIRC it was one of the Carousel models so all very flashy, with bronze paint and a black vinyl roof. Went like a bomb - in a straight line. Try taking on country roads and the back end kept trying to overtake the front on corners. Also - NO ONE ever let you out at junctions, you got beeped with a nanosecond of a light turning green and someone would attempt to burn me off at least twice at a day/squeeze me against a bus.
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
UKIP has what a mate of mine called the Ford Capri Problem, back when you saw those around. The Ford Capri is a nicely-styled well-appointed and sporty car, with a powerful engine and a bit of road presence. It looks like the kind of car you'd consider for yourself - right up until the point where you look at who actually drives them. And at that point, you realise you were on the verge of an appalling lapse of taste and judgement.
i completely agree. Whilst a bit of focused anger can be very healthy when it comes to showing passion or disdain, it's not a substitute for getting even in a smarter way.
My favourite lawyer's bills are the ones which read "To considering whether I needed to do anything, and deciding I didn't, £500 + £25 for the email saying I didn't need to do anything" (I paraphrase slightly..)
Well when you have to account for your working day in 6 minute blocks.....
My favourite lawyer's bills are the ones which read "To considering whether I needed to do anything, and deciding I didn't, £500 + £25 for the email saying I didn't need to do anything" (I paraphrase slightly..)
Well when you have to account for your working day in 6 minute blocks.....
Yes, especially when you need to find twenty 6 minute blocks per hour.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government.
My favourite lawyer's bills are the ones which read "To considering whether I needed to do anything, and deciding I didn't, £500 + £25 for the email saying I didn't need to do anything" (I paraphrase slightly..)
Well when you have to account for your working day in 6 minute blocks.....
Yes, especially when you need to find twenty 6 minute blocks per hour.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
I would go further than that and demand that the other party puts withdrawal firmly on the table and set the criteria for remaining at a level that fulfils UKIPs primary policies (end of Cap, end of CFP, end of free movement of labour, withdrawal from the social chapter, recovery of criminal justice powers, end of green energy subsidies, withdrawal from the ECHR and ECJ etc.) I'd also demand to have a veto on who sits on the negotiation team and as Europe Minister.
If you like it is the EU version of devomax!
After all there are plenty of Tories who would support that position.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
The main aim is to leave the EU so more likely I would expect him to want to be on the inside as far as negotiations with the EU over repatriation of powers is concerned so that he can prevent Cameron trying to paint superficial or unenforceable concessions by the EU as if they were great victories.
This, basically. UKIP have no intention of holding a referendum ever. To the extent that Farage says differently, he is simply lying. He is 100% Establishment figure so it's to be expected.
I regard UKIP and Labour with utter contempt for the same reason. Both are prepared to subject the country to socialist misrule simply to keep their snouts in the trough, and both are lying about it.
The man has spent his whole career calling for withdrawal from the EU. Do you not think that should he get the opportunity that he will take it?
I don't need to wonder whether "should he get the opportunity that he will take it". There's no speculation required. It's right there in plain view. A referendum is on offer in 2017; Farage is opposing the party offering it. do you get that? He's opposing a referendum, right here, today.
Farage does not want a referendum and when he says he does, he is lying to you. Your leader is a liar.
This remember is only the charge you lot routinely level at Cameron. Farage, however, is demonstrably lying, because he is campaigning against a party that has offered what he says he wants. He is lying to you, as politicians will, to dupe you of your vote so that he can stay at the trough. You have fallen for it. You are being had by a man who married his personal immigrant and keeps her at my expense on public money.
Its complete insanity to suggest that a party that would impose strict controls on immigration, scrap the higher rate of income tax, scrap green subsidies, withdraw from the EU, allow Grammar schools to return, devolve power within the NHS and is probably the most authentic decentralist party in this country is socialist.
I didn't suggest that. I said that UKIP is happy to let Labour in to do all those things. Which it is.
It is funny though that you instantly explode with rage when it's put to you that your leader is a common or garden political liar and that your party and Labour amount to the same. These are, you may remember, exactly the arguments UKIPpers hurl at Cameron and the Tories - LibLabCon much? - because you're so extreme right, a lot of you think Cameron's a socialist!
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
And still the Tories don't get it. People are abandoning the Tory party because they don't like you. If you want to stop that happening stop alienating your natural support. You can't simultaneously claim that you can only win from the centre and then blame UKIP for costing you the election when they pick up the voters you have abandoned on the right.
Have you not noticed the rapidly growing economy, the reducing of unemployment and the record employment. Maybe people do hate the tories, but at least they are doing their best for the country.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
The main aim is to leave the EU so more likely I would expect him to want to be on the inside as far as negotiations with the EU over repatriation of powers is concerned so that he can prevent Cameron trying to paint superficial or unenforceable concessions by the EU as if they were great victories.
Cameron or any tory will not be in a position to carry out any kind of renegotiation or referendum though if you continue as a party to inflict maximum damage on the tory party like the timing of the Reckless defection. UKIP need to grow up to carry out their aim unless their aim is to be a permanent 'nobody understands us' party
There is definitely mileage in They May Be Shits, But They're Our Shits for the Awkward that remain in the Blue Team.
TBH, I think Mr Reckless committed about every sin in Dummies Guide To Defections. He lied about it until the last second, spent money he knew would be wasted in his own CAssociation just a week before and deliberately chose to derail the conference of those he'd claimed as friends a day before.
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government.
I'd actually vote Labour to stop that happening.
There's an undercurrent of Right Wing stuff which is wholly unpalatable.
The UKIPpers vision for Britain is not one in which I would wish to live, particularly if it involves people like Neil Hamilton.
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
And still the Tories don't get it. People are abandoning the Tory party because they don't like you. If you want to stop that happening stop alienating your natural support. You can't simultaneously claim that you can only win from the centre and then blame UKIP for costing you the election when they pick up the voters you have abandoned on the right.
Have you not noticed the rapidly growing economy, the reducing of unemployment and the record employment. Maybe people do hate the tories, but at least they are doing their best for the country.
You are not answering the point I made. If elections can only be won in the centre as do many Tories on here claim then how can they claim that UKIP are going to cost them the election by acting as a home for the voters on the right that the Tories have driven out?
Carswell will probably still win but I think the Reckless defection will reduce his vote. Many tories(and they are the ones who will have to vote for Carswell for him to win) are angry at the timing of the Reckless defection and are now anti-UKIP .Some will live in Clacton (and hopefully many will live in Rochester)
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
IIRC it was one of the Carousel models so all very flashy, with bronze paint and a black vinyl roof. Went like a bomb - in a straight line. Try taking on country roads and the back end kept trying to overtake the front on corners. Also - NO ONE ever let you out at junctions, you got beeped with a nanosecond of a light turning green and someone would attempt to burn me off at least twice at a day/squeeze me against a bus.
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
UKIP has what a mate of mine called the Ford Capri Problem, back when you saw those around. The Ford Capri is a nicely-styled well-appointed and sporty car, with a powerful engine and a bit of road presence. It looks like the kind of car you'd consider for yourself - right up until the point where you look at who actually drives them. And at that point, you realise you were on the verge of an appalling lapse of taste and judgement.
Plato - you've been outed as a ladette!
I don't know what Plato looks like but I now sort of imagine her with 1980s Afghan Hound bighair in an XR3i Cabriolet with pearlescent white paint. In a good way.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
I would go further than that and demand that the other party puts withdrawal firmly on the table and set the criteria for remaining at a level that fulfils UKIPs primary policies (end of Cap, end of CFP, end of free movement of labour, withdrawal from the social chapter, recovery of criminal justice powers, end of green energy subsidies, withdrawal from the ECHR and ECJ etc.) I'd also demand to have a veto on who sits on the negotiation team and as Europe Minister.
If you like it is the EU version of devomax!
After all there are plenty of Tories who would support that position.
As a matter of interest what 3 or 4 things do you find most objectionable in the ECHR?
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
IIRC it was one of the Carousel models so all very flashy, with bronze paint and a black vinyl roof. Went like a bomb - in a straight line. Try taking on country roads and the back end kept trying to overtake the front on corners. Also - NO ONE ever let you out at junctions, you got beeped with a nanosecond of a light turning green and someone would attempt to burn me off at least twice at a day/squeeze me against a bus.
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
UKIP has what a mate of mine called the Ford Capri Problem, back when you saw those around. The Ford Capri is a nicely-styled well-appointed and sporty car, with a powerful engine and a bit of road presence. It looks like the kind of car you'd consider for yourself - right up until the point where you look at who actually drives them. And at that point, you realise you were on the verge of an appalling lapse of taste and judgement.
David Cameron thinks he was born to rule, and the Tory Party generally oozes an arrogant sense of entitlement.
Instead of getting angry they should reflect on their many mistakes, not least shifting Right in a Lynton Crosby inspired attempt to out-Kip the Kippers.
When the Tories are booted out they should use the opportunity to modernise, move on from the outdated fringe Rightwing Thatcherism they're still hooked on, become a centrist one-nation Party again.
Otherwise they may never win an election again outright in any of our lifetimes. It's going to be at least 28 years since their last as it is. Does that not ring alarm bells for them?
I wouldn't presume to know what Ukip members want, but one things seems clear. They're not keen on the status quo because they feel that politicians currently ignore them and look down on them. And they are probably correct in that view. So every time that a politician insults them, their grievances are strengthened.
Policies are a secondary consideration and they're probably a mixed bag. An EU referendum will probably result in a biased discussion because the Great and the Good will talk over their heads and only allow one viewpoint - because they know best,
There you are = the problem in a nutshell (and probably over-simplified).
Establishing themselves as the third biggest political party in the UK.
Exactly so - it's about their egos, not about actually achieving what they claim are their political goals (which in any case change from one day to the next).
Political goals will come once we are in government.
I'd actually vote Labour to stop that happening.
There's an undercurrent of Right Wing stuff which is wholly unpalatable.
The UKIPpers vision for Britain is not one in which I would wish to live, particularly if it involves people like Neil Hamilton.
If it came down to a choice of government, I'd sooner vote Labour than UKIP.
1/ It is internationally acceptable to have a Labour government but it would an appalling international embarrassment to have a UKIP one 2/ The damage Labour inflicts is gradual, the damage UKIP would inflict would be instant and permanent 3/ people overseas would feel sorry for us if we had a Labour government, but would justifiably hate and despise us if we had a UKIP government 4/ per capita UKIP have the most corrupt MEPs of any British party, so assuming this applied to HoC MPs they would be the most corrupt British government since Blair's and perhaps of all time.
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
And still the Tories don't get it. People are abandoning the Tory party because they don't like you. If you want to stop that happening stop alienating your natural support. You can't simultaneously claim that you can only win from the centre and then blame UKIP for costing you the election when they pick up the voters you have abandoned on the right.
Have you not noticed the rapidly growing economy, the reducing of unemployment and the record employment. Maybe people do hate the tories, but at least they are doing their best for the country.
Wasn't the economy doing well in 1997? Wasn't unemployment falling? People didn't like Tories then and they had a lot more going for them (e.g. John Major always came as a half decent bloke) than the current lot do. Only in your mind are they doing the best for the country.
Uncontrolled immigration is only best for rich employers looking for cheap labour, its bad for employment, its bad for housing, its bad for the public sector. Cameron's foreign adventures have been pure globalist neocon narcissism. His International Aid policy is pure profligacy. His energy policies are insane daylight robbery. His attempts to rig the boundaries in the Tories favour were an affront to democracy. His sell out on freedom of the press was reprehensible His acquiescence to an AV referendum was pure waste etc etc Then people wonder why Osborne's spending plans failed and had to be reset and why this Government has borrowed more than every UK government between 1945 and 2009.
Not only do people no longer like the tories but there are a hundred arguments to suggest they do not have the country's best interests at heart.
OK I finally got the Opinium tables - from Opinium themselves! Apparently their website is undergoing maintenance, or at least that's what they emailed me!
Plugging into the other data for polls fieldwork ending 21st to 27th September, gives us a Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 28th Sep of:
Lab 36.0% (+0.8 on last week) Con 31.7% (-0.0) UKIP 14.7% (-0.6) LD 7.3% (-0.4)
Lab lead 4.4% (+0.8 on last week)
Changes from our very first ELBOW for week-ending 17th August:
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
snip
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
UKIP has what a mate of mine called the Ford Capri Problem, back when you saw those around. The Ford Capri is a nicely-styled well-appointed and sporty car, with a powerful engine and a bit of road presence. It looks like the kind of car you'd consider for yourself - right up until the point where you look at who actually drives them. And at that point, you realise you were on the verge of an appalling lapse of taste and judgement.
Plato - you've been outed as a ladette!
I don't know what Plato looks like but I now sort of imagine her with 1980s Afghan Hound bighair in an XR3i Cabriolet with pearlescent white paint. In a good way.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
I would go further than that and demand that the other party puts withdrawal firmly on the table and set the criteria for remaining at a level that fulfils UKIPs primary policies (end of Cap, end of CFP, end of free movement of labour, withdrawal from the social chapter, recovery of criminal justice powers, end of green energy subsidies, withdrawal from the ECHR and ECJ etc.) I'd also demand to have a veto on who sits on the negotiation team and as Europe Minister.
If you like it is the EU version of devomax!
After all there are plenty of Tories who would support that position.
As a matter of interest what 3 or 4 things do you find most objectionable in the ECHR?
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
Why would you hate your allies ? they will lead you to government
And still the Tories don't get it. People are abandoning the Tory party because they don't like you. If you want to stop that happening stop alienating your natural support. You can't simultaneously claim that you can only win from the centre and then blame UKIP for costing you the election when they pick up the voters you have abandoned on the right.
Have you not noticed the rapidly growing economy, the reducing of unemployment and the record employment. Maybe people do hate the tories, but at least they are doing their best for the country.
You are not answering the point I made. If elections can only be won in the centre as do many Tories on here claim then how can they claim that UKIP are going to cost them the election by acting as a home for the voters on the right that the Tories have driven out?
You neatly ignore the fact that if all the Kippers in 2010 had held their nose and voted Tory, then David Cameron would have been a Conservative Prime Minister. Instead, they landed us with David Cameron, Coalition Prime Minister, without the Westminster votes to make any meaningful attempt to vary the EU settlement.
If he had been given that majority, and failed to use it over the past five years, you would have a point.
And people are not abandoning the Tory party. A few knuckle-dragging no-marks might be, with reckless disregard for putting Ed Miliband in Downing Street, but the Tory vote is holding up remarkably well from 2010.... It is the Libdems on the left that have been driven out.
Farage goes on about wanting to hold the balance of power come May 2015. If so (very unlikely) what will his negotiating position be? Wanting the other parties to offer an in /out referendum? Surely that is the main aim for a party called UKIP? Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
The main aim is to leave the EU so more likely I would expect him to want to be on the inside as far as negotiations with the EU over repatriation of powers is concerned so that he can prevent Cameron trying to paint superficial or unenforceable concessions by the EU as if they were great victories.
Cameron or any tory will not be in a position to carry out any kind of renegotiation or referendum though if you continue as a party to inflict maximum damage on the tory party like the timing of the Reckless defection. UKIP need to grow up to carry out their aim unless their aim is to be a permanent 'nobody understands us' party
If Cameron loses the next election it will be no one's fault but his own. The idea that UKIP are to blame for his crawl towards the 'centre' is frankly laughable.
“Can I check that we are all proud Conservatives – proud of the oldest and most successful party in all the western democracies?” he boomed. “Am I right? Are there any quitters or splitters? Anyone feeling a bit yellow around the edges – like a kipper?”
Enjoyed the responses from State_go_away and Bond James Bond to my query on advice to Tories in Heywood (State has switched from UKIP to Labour in anger over Reckless, Bond would vote for either UKIP or Labour, whichever he felt did them both most damage, including voting UKIP to damage UKIP) - any more responses? FWIW I genuinely don't know what a cunning Tory should do there.
TBH, I think Mr Reckless committed about every sin in Dummies Guide To Defections. He lied about it until the last second, spent money he knew would be wasted in his own CAssociation just a week before and deliberately chose to derail the conference of those he'd claimed as friends a day before.
I've been wondering about that £9000. Have Rochester Tories *really* gone to press with material for next May which they'll need to scrap? None of the Broxtowe parties have even selected all the council candidates for next May, let alone preprinted leaflets about them. We'd be afraid that someone would die or whatever if we did it that far in advance.
David Cameron thinks he was born to rule, and the Tory Party generally oozes an arrogant sense of entitlement.
Instead of getting angry they should reflect on their many mistakes, not least shifting Right in a Lynton Crosby inspired attempt to out-Kip the Kippers.
When the Tories are booted out they should use the opportunity to modernise, move on from the outdated fringe Rightwing Thatcherism they're still hooked on, become a centrist one-nation Party again.
Otherwise they may never win an election again outright in any of our lifetimes. It's going to be at least 28 years since their last as it is. Does that not ring alarm bells for them?
Oh do shut up, Hugh.
Lefties like you are always mired in a slobbering nostalgia for some imagined Tory Party of yesteryear that wasn't all nasty and right wing. The type led by Heath, for example, that you could actually beat in elections without the gerrymandered boundaries.
You know perfectly well we now need four Conservative terms. Without the Tories in for that long there'll be no national prosperity for you deadbeat public sector to55ers to piss away and squander. How will you f>ck the economy if it's as skint as you left it?
So sod off back to the public sector and let the Tories finish fixing the economy you pr1cks wrecked, there's a good Student Gwant.
Comments
Yes, I have taken the 8/11.
By the way, have you noticed Hills have put up a UKIP seats market.
They go 7/4 against 5 seats or more at the GE. This is significantly better than Betfair is offering for a similar bet.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 11m11 minutes ago
MT @FraserNelson Oops! ONS admits UK economy far stronger than it had thought http://bit.ly/1rBGCbk
It does rather beg the question of how UKIP intends to get where it wants to be on the EU. I am genuinely interested to know.
I also find Kippers on here generally more appealing than many of the Tories. Not all but many seem to be more down to earth, even if I disagree with them - and I get shed loads of stick from them too.
You can't blame people for wanting their vote to count by casting it for a more authentic party - rather than one of the mainstream parties that have proved themselves to be so untrustworthy so often.
Oh yes that is the fear that the UKIP Leadership have now that the Conservatives are committed to a referendum by a specific date. The gravy train may end.
UKIP supporters aren't fools. They've seen what happened to left-wing MPs and supporters of Labour during the Blair years. They were almost entirely ignored. They had nowhere else to go. The party leadership took them completely for granted as they cosied up to the City of London and the CBI.
UKIP supporters know that if they want to get what they want then they have to vote for it. There's no point in voting for someone they don't really want because he offers slightly more of what they want than the other guy they don't want. That way they will always lose, as the left-wing voters for Labour have always lost.
This way they at least have a chance of winning, and the success that they do have puts their priorities right into the centre of political debate.
The Kippers are useful but it is Tory ineptitude that is to blame for Labour's rise.
As the party cannot even hold on to its own MPs I think serious questions need to be asked.
Sadly many Tories on here are that ultimate party loyalists and cannot see why it is their party's own fault, trying endlessly to blame others.
Hmm. I agree with the general principle, but wonder if it may be a good thing in this case.
1) Other potentially defecting MPs may feel they'll be loathed, reducing the chances of defection.
2) The Conservatives can actually unite around being really pissed off at 'traitors'.
3) It's not that common to see real fire in the belly in politics, so this may help enthuse the [loyal] base.
Surely if an argument's good enough it will win. I for one could vote either way in 2017 depending on the circumstances and I suspect the middle wedge of voters that need to be won over in a referendum take a similar view.
I regard UKIP and Labour with utter contempt for the same reason. Both are prepared to subject the country to socialist misrule simply to keep their snouts in the trough, and both are lying about it.
"but a couple of years later UKIP will be truthfully saying the voters were lied to about what they were voting for."
I suspect many are saying they were lied to about what they were voting for forty years ago. So why would they trust politicians now?
The tory party has to be a wide church ,especially in coalition with the Lib Dems .It is in fact essential to good government in this 2010-2015 period. If some ex-supporters and ex- Mps think that it needs to be less of a wide church then there is not much to say or do other than to try and govern with inclusion
The tactical vote situation is interesting now. Would Tories here recommend Tories in Heywood & Middleton to vote Labour (to stop the UKIP bandwagon in its tracks) or UKIP (to spread the impact to Labour) or Tory (even though they clearly can't win there)? Will Labour voters in Rochester rally to the Tories (to defeat the lesser right-wing candidate) or UKIP (to wind up the Tories some more) or Labour (to keep the flag flying and maybe even win)? If the advice is to stick to the party you really support, it's difficult to urge Kippers to vote tactically elsewhere, isn't it?
http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/leadership-hustings-dutch-auction/29363
There's a niche for loony parties to the tune of probably 5 to 6% of the vote. UKIP's goal is to occupy that niche and stay there forever.
If they actually wanted EU exit, they would disband.
Anyway:
weighted sample 1486
Lab 504 (34%)
Con 478 (32%)
UKIP 250 (17%)
LD 107 (7%)
Plugging into the other data for polls fieldwork ending 21st to 27th September, gives us a Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 28th Sep of:
Lab 36.0% (+0.8 on last week)
Con 31.7% (-0.0)
UKIP 14.7% (-0.6)
LD 7.3% (-0.4)
Lab lead 4.4% (+0.8 on last week)
Changes from our very first ELBOW for week-ending 17th August:
Lab -0.1
Con -1.5
UKIP +1.6
LD -1.5
Lab lead +1.4
It is laughable posts of that nature which is what I am driving at. If the Tories want to avoid socialist misrule as you put it all they need do is win a majority. It's not that tricky. Labour have done it three times in the last 17 years alone.
Referendum on leaving the EU? That was the overwhelming demand from Cameron, so much so that they invented an entire mythology that he had offered it and reneged on the promise, which is obvious nonsense. Now that he has agreed to it for the next parliament, they've decided they don't want it after all.
Flat-rate taxes and scrapping of national insurance? That was what they wanted in 2010 in the manifesto Nigel Farage launched. Now they've decided they don't want that.
Replace VAT with a Local Sales Tax? No, now they want to increase VAT on fancy handbags. Oh, sorry, that was Saturday's policy. Now they don't want to raise VAT on fancy handbags.
Abolish inheritance tax at "earliest opportunity"? I think that's vanished, hasn't it?
EU citizens who arrived in UK after January 2004 treated as non-EU immigrants? In the bin, I believe.
Key NHS services put out to tender? That was in the 2010 manifesto, now they seem to be arguing the opposite.
Admittedly I might have got some of this wrong. Who knows what they want? Does anyone?
and
DEFECT TO UKIP
I think destabilising the Tories by soft pedalling is the strategy, based on the simple Game Theory equation of doing what you chief opponent least wants you to do.
I for one am delighted the Tory party is now riled up about UKIP. About bloody time. UKIP are just a party of complete and utter stunts....
The lengths the Tories are now going to to justify themselves is quite pathetic. You need professional help because you are going into tin-foil hat territory. Its complete insanity to suggest that a party that would impose strict controls on immigration, scrap the higher rate of income tax, scrap green subsidies, withdraw from the EU, allow Grammar schools to return, devolve power within the NHS and is probably the most authentic decentralist party in this country is socialist. It is an utter nonsense and all I can suggest to Tories is they need to get their sad little two dimensional heads out of their nether orifices double quick before they lose this coming election to the real socialists.
I would do the same here for the same reason. Voting either UKIP or Labour leads to a Labour government, and the Conservative can't win, so how I vote makes no difference to the outcome. I would thus vote in whatever way maximised the damage to UKIP and Labour.
It is thus possible to vote UKIP as an anti-UKIP strategy. I did much the same in the euros; I voted for An Independence From Europe, because I hoped that if enough others did the same the big fraud Farage would be suckered into wasting resource trying to get the result changed.
In this instance, unlike in Brent, I paid no attention to what this might do to the final outcome, because in the euros, the result does not matter. Euro elections are, so far as I can tell, wholly and completely pointless because MEPs do no useful work of any kind.
Given your comments on the last thread I presume you will be offering your legal services at no extra cost on Sunday mornings in future.
A much better dissection of the UKIP position that many senior tory politicians manage.
I couldn't resist adding my 2p re Capris. Haven't owned one - but was loaned one from a garage whilst they wrestled with my Spitfire. It was the most hilarious thing.
IIRC it was one of the Carousel models so all very flashy, with bronze paint and a black vinyl roof. Went like a bomb - in a straight line. Try taking on country roads and the back end kept trying to overtake the front on corners. Also - NO ONE ever let you out at junctions, you got beeped with a nanosecond of a light turning green and someone would attempt to burn me off at least twice at a day/squeeze me against a bus.
In my Spitty, I'd always get let out, forgiven if I didn't indicate and never beeped once accept by others who were saying Hello as they flashed their lights in recognition. If I ever broke down, someone would always stop/offer help or a lift. I suspect in a Capri, I'd get propositioned instead.
A most peculiar contrast!
Is this likely to happen.
Well if labour win the GE they will not only fuck up the country but also their own party. So come the next GE (on 2020 or possibly sooner) who do voters choose.
Well, labour are reasonsible for the currant mess, the tories were useless and the libdems have ceased to exist.
Who is left.
Only UKIP.
Fanny Face!!!
So you presume correctly.
You can rest assured of that. There is no happy outcome for UKIP for a country that was doing well but then falls apart because they let Labour in.
I hope the Tories do both.
Also, if the country is up shit creek then UKIP might be able to enforce massive structural change.
The one mistake I hope to god that UKIP do not make that the Libdems made is getting into bed with the Tories because to many many swing voters the Tories are toxic.
Well Farage should note he has already got the tories to offer this so what the heck is he doing trying to scupper it now!
Well seems the UKIP surge continues whilst I'm on holiday and all !
Reckless - amusing name for a defector.
Rochester and Strood doesn't seem QUITE the shoo in that Clacton is for UKIP - though neither it is as difficult as Heywood & Middleton.
Righto back to the hotel where although there is zip for internet there is free booze 24-7.Ciao all !
What a dilemma - a UKIP or Labour HMG... the thing of horrors.
Who do you bill for PB posts?
If you like it is the EU version of devomax!
After all there are plenty of Tories who would support that position.
Farage does not want a referendum and when he says he does, he is lying to you. Your leader is a liar.
This remember is only the charge you lot routinely level at Cameron. Farage, however, is demonstrably lying, because he is campaigning against a party that has offered what he says he wants. He is lying to you, as politicians will, to dupe you of your vote so that he can stay at the trough. You have fallen for it. You are being had by a man who married his personal immigrant and keeps her at my expense on public money. I didn't suggest that. I said that UKIP is happy to let Labour in to do all those things. Which it is.
It is funny though that you instantly explode with rage when it's put to you that your leader is a common or garden political liar and that your party and Labour amount to the same. These are, you may remember, exactly the arguments UKIPpers hurl at Cameron and the Tories - LibLabCon much? - because you're so extreme right, a lot of you think Cameron's a socialist!
"Your business is so important to us, that your highly paid lawyer is checking his grocery bill at the same time"?
UKIP need to grow up to carry out their aim unless their aim is to be a permanent 'nobody understands us' party
TBH, I think Mr Reckless committed about every sin in Dummies Guide To Defections. He lied about it until the last second, spent money he knew would be wasted in his own CAssociation just a week before and deliberately chose to derail the conference of those he'd claimed as friends a day before.
There's no mercy for someone like that.
The UKIPpers vision for Britain is not one in which I would wish to live, particularly if it involves people like Neil Hamilton.
Although, Boris thinks the vacuum is applied elesewhere.... He may be right.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/cameron-reckless-is-fat-arse-24301/
I don't know what Plato looks like but I now sort of imagine her with 1980s Afghan Hound bighair in an XR3i Cabriolet with pearlescent white paint. In a good way. As a matter of interest what 3 or 4 things do you find most objectionable in the ECHR?
Instead of getting angry they should reflect on their many mistakes, not least shifting Right in a Lynton Crosby inspired attempt to out-Kip the Kippers.
When the Tories are booted out they should use the opportunity to modernise, move on from the outdated fringe Rightwing Thatcherism they're still hooked on, become a centrist one-nation Party again.
Otherwise they may never win an election again outright in any of our lifetimes. It's going to be at least 28 years since their last as it is. Does that not ring alarm bells for them?
Hills are offering 7/4 against UKIP 5 seats or more at the GE. That's better than Betfair.
Surely WH has an office somewhere on Izmir Rd?
I wouldn't presume to know what Ukip members want, but one things seems clear. They're not keen on the status quo because they feel that politicians currently ignore them and look down on them. And they are probably correct in that view. So every time that a politician insults them, their grievances are strengthened.
Policies are a secondary consideration and they're probably a mixed bag. An EU referendum will probably result in a biased discussion because the Great and the Good will talk over their heads and only allow one viewpoint - because they know best,
There you are = the problem in a nutshell (and probably over-simplified).
1/ It is internationally acceptable to have a Labour government but it would an appalling international embarrassment to have a UKIP one
2/ The damage Labour inflicts is gradual, the damage UKIP would inflict would be instant and permanent
3/ people overseas would feel sorry for us if we had a Labour government, but would justifiably hate and despise us if we had a UKIP government
4/ per capita UKIP have the most corrupt MEPs of any British party, so assuming this applied to HoC MPs they would be the most corrupt British government since Blair's and perhaps of all time.
Uncontrolled immigration is only best for rich employers looking for cheap labour, its bad for employment, its bad for housing, its bad for the public sector. Cameron's foreign adventures have been pure globalist neocon narcissism. His International Aid policy is pure profligacy. His energy policies are insane daylight robbery. His attempts to rig the boundaries in the Tories favour were an affront to democracy. His sell out on freedom of the press was reprehensible His acquiescence to an AV referendum was pure waste etc etc Then people wonder why Osborne's spending plans failed and had to be reset and why this Government has borrowed more than every UK government between 1945 and 2009.
Not only do people no longer like the tories but there are a hundred arguments to suggest they do not have the country's best interests at heart.
I wouldn't be seen dead even in a RTA as a passenger in an XR3i. 80s big hair? Golly, frightnight - no I was more an 80s Goth. I don't know what Plato looks like but I now sort of imagine her with 1980s Afghan Hound bighair in an XR3i Cabriolet with pearlescent white paint. In a good way. As a matter of interest what 3 or 4 things do you find most objectionable in the ECHR?
If he had been given that majority, and failed to use it over the past five years, you would have a point.
And people are not abandoning the Tory party. A few knuckle-dragging no-marks might be, with reckless disregard for putting Ed Miliband in Downing Street, but the Tory vote is holding up remarkably well from 2010.... It is the Libdems on the left that have been driven out.
I've been wondering about that £9000. Have Rochester Tories *really* gone to press with material for next May which they'll need to scrap? None of the Broxtowe parties have even selected all the council candidates for next May, let alone preprinted leaflets about them. We'd be afraid that someone would die or whatever if we did it that far in advance.
Lefties like you are always mired in a slobbering nostalgia for some imagined Tory Party of yesteryear that wasn't all nasty and right wing. The type led by Heath, for example, that you could actually beat in elections without the gerrymandered boundaries.
You know perfectly well we now need four Conservative terms. Without the Tories in for that long there'll be no national prosperity for you deadbeat public sector to55ers to piss away and squander. How will you f>ck the economy if it's as skint as you left it?
So sod off back to the public sector and let the Tories finish fixing the economy you pr1cks wrecked, there's a good Student Gwant.