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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement
Since the defection of Mark Reckless to UKIP, I’ve not been surprised at the opprobrium heaped at Mark Reckless from the Tories, mostly because of his timing and his assurances that he wouldn’t defect.
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Patrick said:
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Only if you worry about the Joneses. My stepsister had a white Capri long bonnet with go-faster stripes and racing seats - coolest 'motor' ever. Doubly cool in fact because it was naff as hell and gave her extra street cred with her Sloaney friends. Was a hoot.
*gasp*
You don't mean she had...she didn't really have...Recaro Fishnet Head Restraints!!!??
http://www.rollaclub.com/board/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=82936
O...M...G...
<...envy...>
The Tories' problem with UKIP is that far too many of them secretly have had a soft spot for the Kippers, seeing them as kin. They first have to learn to hate them before they stand any chance of seeing them off as a threat.
Incidentally, Tories showing that they hate UKIP makes the Tories a lot more attractive to centrist voters sympathetic to their economic approach but alienated by the headbanging right.
Mike Smithson seems to think the Tories being angry means they are a bet in Rochester and Strood though.
Seems remarkably similar to Clacton to me, in that UKIP stood aside in 2010 and the defector won handsomely, coupled with UKIP walking the Euros in May of this year
I am probably lacking confidence as the spin says Reckless isn't such a shoo-in, but the data is very similar to Clacton... I think UKIP will win and 8/11 is a bet
Why else would they deliberately sabotage their conference with these defections ?
Kippers have been indulged too long frankly.
Which rather gives the lie to the much claimed idea that the Tories can win by rejecting their Right wing and gaining votes in the centre. Those votes simply aren't there.
But Reckless's duplicity was on a different scale than Carswell and he attacked his previous party for not strictly following its 2010 manifesto (compromised by coalition) and instead, on principle, joins UKIP a party where its 2010 manifesto has been completely ignored by its current Leader. Where would a UKIP MP be now if they had got elected in 2010? Resigning on the wholesale breaking of all manifesto pledges? Cough... I doubt it.
That does not appear to me to be a winning formula.
As for announcements, May is reheating a policy which did not work when it was tried with the IRA, has failed to do what Cameron promised years ago e.g. the banning of Hizb-ut-Tahir and which is not sufficiently focused on preventing the spread of extremism in schools (see the recent references to Trojan Horse problems in Tower Hamlets worse than those found in Birmingham), Osborne has removed a tax which most people didn't even know existed and, er, that's it.
They should be taking the Richard Nabavi tone, namely:
1) More in sorrow than anger.
2) Serious government vs protest politics.
That said, they should absolutely be using anything personal they've got against the defectors (drinking problems etc) pour encourager les autres.
No idea which category defectors fall into, but I do get the impression Reckless wasn't universally popular in the Party anyway. The (right wing) Spectator even advised voting against him in Medway in the 2005 general election.
.http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100288177/ukip-defections-the-only-question-being-asked-in-birmingham-is-whos-next/
And, let's face it, there's plenty to be angry about. The self-indulgent antics of Farage and his band risk installing the two Eds in Downing St, and thus wrecking the economy, reversing all the hard-won progress that has been made, and leaving the position with respect to the EU fixed in its current unsatisfactory state. Anger seems an entirely healthy response.
And since UKIP is, according all the polls the most disliked party .......
http://www.eef.org.uk/releases/uk/2014/EEF-Survey-–-Manufacturers-remain-overwhelmingly-in-favour-of-remaining-in-EU.htm
This is, of course, diametrically opposite of what many grassroot members want. Secretly, they had been hoping for some pact with UKIP. Until very recently, they could not concieve that the kippers could possibly harm the Tories. After all, they were all from the same family.
Farage needs WWC votes. The name Moseley comes to mind.
Engage with UKIP's arguments, surely.
Now we can't say the truth because it's not PC to kippers. Funny I didn't realise they were such fans of PC language in other scenarios.
This is pure hypocrisy.
This, of course, depends on a Lib Dem crash !
But whom is the hatred focused upon; UKIP voters or specific individuals?
If the latter, how does your hatred feed into your wider message or vision that will slowly seep into the populus at large?
It seems DC took stock of the Clacton situation and wisely decided not to put more than taken forces into it. It seems he has decided to fight and fight hard in Rochester.
It's far too early to tell whether he has called Rochester right but it is absolutely essential he wins, otherwise UKIP will be all the stronger for having taken on and defeated the enemy at its full force. The consequences so close to an election could be far-reaching.
It seems to me the risks are very great in relation to the potential rewards. UKIP are likely to be fighting off the back of a win in Clacton, quite possibly a rout. And there may be further defections before we get to Rochester.
Brave, Dave, very brave.
"Conan! What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women."
As Dan Hannan has rightly asked, which bit of the word 'Yes' do these people not understand?
The Tories are looking like David Brent when Neil turned up in the 2nd series of The Office
That said there is another perspective here, which is that there's an inter-Tory factional argument going on. If you're a centrist like Clarke, or probably Boris (although it's hard to say because he's ambitious and it helps to look right-wing) you want the Tories to start drawing stronger lines to distinguish themselves from UKIP. The thin end of that wedge is anger against people who are deliberately trying to hurt the Tories, but the fat end would be speaking up for traditional mainstream Conservative positions like membership of the EU.
You're such a trolly troll TSE
Won a few battles, but had no credible plan to win the war, and in pursuing a bad plan, ensured the enemy victory.
To win a referendum, you need to be able to build bridges and reach out so that your support exceeds 50 per cent.
If there is anger & disarray between UKIP and right of the Tory party, then there is no chance of constructing a still wider coalition that can reach out to > 50 per cent of the population.
I suspect when/if this referendum happens, the BOO will not do anywhere near as well as Salmond's 45 per cent.
That is a master class in political trollinganalysis
If the public don't think the Tories are electable, they will back Labour to a majority, even if they are not offering policies that add up. The electorate showed in 1997 that they will not tolerate a divided party.
The only thing stopping this being ridiculous value at 8/11 ( given its similarities to Clacton in almost every way measurable election data wise) is the "Angry Tories" rumour, which smacks of wishful thinking to me
They said the same when Carswell defected, they're just pretending they didn't now because he is going to win so easily... look back at the threads
The pure anger shown by Kippers on here when anyone dare criticise the glorious Nigel is venomous. And you moan when the tories get angry with someone who has spent the last few months lying continuosly to his local party and costing them £1000s in wasted leaflets.
Take a look at some of your and your ilks comments over the last few months, you lot should be the last to criticize.
UKIP resembles the Labour Party in that way. Both have long since lost sight of their original purpose, and now exist simply to perpetuate themselves. Labour therefore stands for bad education, a bloated public sector, and limitless third world immigration, because this is what buys them their votes. UKIP stands for a referendum on EU membership tomorrow.
Can you list, say, five accomplishments that have flowed from having UKIP MEPs, for example? Or one clearly beneficial thing that one of those MEPs has accomplished?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-29374081,
UKIP resembles the Labour Party in that way. Both have long since lost sight of their original purpose, and now exist simply to perpetuate themselves. Labour therefore stands for bad education, a bloated public sector, and limitless third world immigration, because this is what buys them their votes. UKIP stands for a referendum on EU membership tomorrow.
You cant count on loyalty to a party when they've already voted for someone else
Was it you that said I was a hypocrite for not wanting repatriation of immigrants?
It is notable that we can have a far more reasoned and informed discussion with Labour or non - party contributors who do not tend to throw insults than we can with many Tories (with some honorable exceptions.
People used exactly the same excuse in Clacton when I cited the Euros there as evidence that Carswell was a very good thing to win
Regardless of whether Rochester is an easier seat for the Tories to hold against UKIP than Clacton, at some point the Tories have to be seen to fight. Better to do so now, with the second defector, than later with the third or fourth.
What's the line from the film "The American President"? "Oh, you only fight the fights you can win? You fight the fights that need fighting!"
EDIT: And your post that I was responding to was an assertion with no other content! Greenhouses etc.
But better late than never.
I have a strong faith in the fundamental decency of the British public, and they will continue decisively rejecting the hatred, bitterness and parochialism that UKIP represent, fortunately.