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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on The Curse of the Paisley Pyjamas

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    philiph said:


    He can't tell me how Labour 1997 - 2010 prevented corporations evading or avoiding taxes.

    I don't hold out much hope for you getting a factual response.

    The extraordinary thing about Labour supporters is that they seem to think this is some game which is nothing to do with them, and yet they hope to be in government in a few months' time when the entire heap of manure will land in their lap. I've never seen anything remotely like it before. Of course Gordon Brown was equally out with the fairies, but he had the excuse that no-one expected him to be in government after May 2010, so he could spout any old garbage with impunity. The two Eds don't have that excuse.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited September 2014

    hunchman said:

    You'll need to rearrange your affairs irrespective of who wins next May when economic confidence falls apart from October next year regardless. We'll get some hairbrained economic measures for a quick fix - protectionism, sanctions on those we dislike, capital controls etc - all tried and failed measures in hard economic times in the past.

    In which case there is nothing to lose in following my advice.
    What did your friend, Mr Osborne say about the PSBR being £6bn ahead of this time in the 2013/14 tax year today? All I heard was that horrible phrase 'paying down the deficit'. I switched off there and then, that's vacuous rubbish and proves that Osborne doesn't have a clue. He could make a positive contribution by helping to lift sanctions on Russia, which are empowering Putin, not the other way around as Osborne likes to think, and destroying agricultural jobs, witness the tax office in Morlaix, Brittany burnt down by angry French farmers:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/28/russian-sanctions-huge-mistake/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    hunchman Donald Trump also looking likely to run again @realDonaldTrump 'I wonder if I run for President, will the haters and losers vote for me knowing that I will make America great again? I say they will!'
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2014

    philiph said:


    He can't tell me how Labour 1997 - 2010 prevented corporations evading or avoiding taxes.

    I don't hold out much hope for you getting a factual response.

    The extraordinary thing about Labour supporters is that they seem to think this is some game which is nothing to do with them, and yet they hope to be in government in a few months' time when the entire heap of manure will land in their lap. I've never seen anything remotely like it before. Of course Gordon Brown was equally out with the fairies, but he had the excuse that no-one expected him to be in government after May 2010, so he could spout any old garbage. The two Eds don't have that excuse.
    Sometimes it make you wonder if mind altering substances are added to the water supply by some sophisticated political identifying venturi system.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    @HYUFD, just catching up tonight, what were the Lord Ashcroft polling figures?
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob Well Ashcroft's poll today had Tories and Labour tied, if that isn't swingback what is?

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    hunchman Donald Trump also looking likely to run again @realDonaldTrump 'I wonder if I run for President, will the haters and losers vote for me knowing that I will make America great again? I say they will!'

    That would be interesting, a real wildcard for sure!

    Good night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Tommy Sheridan Returning to full time law degree after Yes campaign, '45 hangover perhaps finally over? https://twitter.com/citizentommy/status/516712947394306048
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob Well Ashcroft's poll today had Tories and Labour tied, if that isn't swingback what is?

    Ashcroft's polls have been bouncing from Tory lead to Labour landslide week after week since he started polling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited September 2014
    Tory activists at Party Conference preferred a Coalition with LDs to UKIP by 2-1 in BBC politics straw poll for Daily Politics on BBC 2 now
  • Socrates said:

    This was an interesting line by Boris:

    "We want sensible control of the number of people coming in. It is the right and the duty of every state to have some idea of how many people want to settle in its boundaries, what jobs they propose to do there and how much it is going to cost its local authorities.’"

    So immigration is on Cameron's repatriation list.

    It doesn't tell you that, it tells you immigration is on he list of things people who take part in Tory leadership elections would like repatriated.

    In reality whether it's on the list or not, change requires the agreement of a bunch of eastern European prime ministers and their parliaments, so it isn't going to happen.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    RodCrosby said:


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
    The Tory vote share hasn't risen at all.
    It takes 2 to call it a swingback.
    You can't call a Labour to UKIP swing, a swingback.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory activists at Party Conference preferred a Coalition with LDs to UKIP by 2-1 in BBC politics straw poll for Daily Politics on BBC 2 now

    It would have been the other way round a few weeks ago, I suspect.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    HYUFD said:

    Tory activists at Party Conference preferred a Coalition with LDs to UKIP by 2-1 in BBC politics straw poll for Daily Politics on BBC 2 now

    It would have been the other way round a few weeks ago, I suspect.
    Well quite a few right wingers have left to UKIP already, not many remain inside the Tories from a base point of view.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
    The Tory vote share hasn't risen at all.
    It takes 2 to call it a swingback.
    You can't call a Labour to UKIP swing, a swingback.
    You obviously don't understand the concept of "swing".
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
    The Tory vote share hasn't risen at all.
    It takes 2 to call it a swingback.
    You can't call a Labour to UKIP swing, a swingback.
    It's the boomerang swingback. The Tory percentage keeps going back to where it was.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @ManofKent


    Advocating the privatisation of the NHS is electoral suicide, though when in power all seem to find a reason to break it up.

    Tax cuts for the rich, secondary moderns reintroduced, but scrapping the bedroom tax and saving the NHS.

    Farage has out done Gordon: he has a whole orchard of magic money trees.

    No its just the way neurotic Tories have to see it that way because they cannot deal with reality. You guys have really lost the plot. After all how could Farage outdo Brown. Brown was Chancellor for a decade and Prime Minister for three years. Farage has yet to get into Parliament.

    I'll tell you who has outdone Brown and that's George Osborne who has borrowed more than Brown did (in fact he's on target to borrow more than every chancellor combined between 1945 and 2009)

    You guys really need to get a sense of perspective because Miliband is laughing at you. He has basically decided he can win on 35% because the Tories are so weak and incompetent they cannot beat Labour with only that 35% of the vote and all you lot are bothered about is making up sneery little stories about UKIP to make you feel better (coz they have no other effect)! Its little wonder the Tories are screwed and losing people to a party who got only 2% of the vote in 2010.....
    I am not a Tory, I am a pro-coalition LibDem.

    I expect my party to get a battering next may, but the long term future is bright as Ed Milibands government tears itself up in government, and the Conservatives and kippers continue their self destructive obsession with europe.

    There will always be room for a sensible centrist party.

    I am not sure that there will be room for an incoherent, self contradicting Faragist party for long.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Tory activists at Party Conference preferred a Coalition with LDs to UKIP by 2-1 in BBC politics straw poll for Daily Politics on BBC 2 now

    Quite right too. The LD/Con has been a notable success, and remembered fondly after Milibands first month as PM
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
    The Tory vote share hasn't risen at all.
    It takes 2 to call it a swingback.
    You can't call a Labour to UKIP swing, a swingback.
    You obviously don't understand the concept of "swing".
    There are almost no Labour to Tory switchers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    RichardN Maybe, but as Speedy points out many on the traditional right have now joined UKIP. If the Tories are largest party but again short of a majority the way is clear for another Cameron Clegg pact, and indeed the polls show the public would prefer the LDs in government than UKIP with Cameron as PM
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    HYUFD said:

    Tory activists at Party Conference preferred a Coalition with LDs to UKIP by 2-1 in BBC politics straw poll for Daily Politics on BBC 2 now

    It would have been the other way round a few weeks ago, I suspect.
    Actually the striking thing about it was the number if people who were too scared to say on camera. The presenter made particular mention of it

    Who do you reckon they'll break for when other cons aren't looking?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy He is a bit of a yo yo true, but we shall see what the polls bring by the end of conference week, can the Tories get the bounce Labour did not despite their troubles
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Could be the tipping point though - the moment the Tories realized UKIP aren't some quaintly eccentric Tory re-enactment society but quasi-leftist iconoclasts set on smashing apart the old order just for the hell of it. It might get awfully bloody!

    Iconoclasts have purpose in smashing apart the old order by definition and there is much justification to do so not least because the current establishment political class is 20 years or more out of date in its outlook.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Indeed
  • @ManofKent


    Advocating the privatisation of the NHS is electoral suicide, though when in power all seem to find a reason to break it up.

    Tax cuts for the rich, secondary moderns reintroduced, but scrapping the bedroom tax and saving the NHS.

    Farage has out done Gordon: he has a whole orchard of magic money trees.

    No its just the way neurotic Tories have to see it that way because they cannot deal with reality. You guys have really lost the plot. After all how could Farage outdo Brown. Brown was Chancellor for a decade and Prime Minister for three years. Farage has yet to get into Parliament.

    I'll tell you who has outdone Brown and that's George Osborne who has borrowed more than Brown did (in fact he's on target to borrow more than every chancellor combined between 1945 and 2009)

    You guys really need to get a sense of perspective because Miliband is laughing at you. He has basically decided he can win on 35% because the Tories are so weak and incompetent they cannot beat Labour with only that 35% of the vote and all you lot are bothered about is making up sneery little stories about UKIP to make you feel better (coz they have no other effect)! Its little wonder the Tories are screwed and losing people to a party who got only 2% of the vote in 2010.....
    I am not a Tory, I am a pro-coalition LibDem.

    I expect my party to get a battering next may, but the long term future is bright as Ed Milibands government tears itself up in government, and the Conservatives and kippers continue their self destructive obsession with europe.

    There will always be room for a sensible centrist party.

    I am not sure that there will be room for an incoherent, self contradicting Faragist party for long.
    The funniest post I've read all night. Libdems have no choice but face both ways simultaneously. That's the true nature of centrist parties. Just ask the broken and beaten Blairites.

    Now, talking about contradiction why is it a self professed localist party (with the word democrats in the name) not only supports centralising voting systems but also unceasingly worships at the alter of the most centralist anti-democratic institution in post war Western European history.

    In comparison Farage's decentralist approach to the political system and distribution of power is a model of coherence and consistency

    Frankly I find the claims of Libdems superbly entertaining. There is nothing more amusing if otherworldly (which planet I have no idea though) in politics.........

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
    Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
    The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
    From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

    Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
    CON -9.5
    LAB +4
    LD -13.5
    UKIP +17

    In LD seats

    CON -7.5
    LAB +7.5
    LD -16
    UKIP +12.5

    In LAB seats

    CON -9.5
    LAB +4
    LD -10.5
    UKIP +16.5

    Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
    Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob Well Ashcroft's poll today had Tories and Labour tied, if that isn't swingback what is?

    It's conference season. In soothsayer mode, I predicted two weeks ago that Labour's lead would rise to 6ish last week (tick) then fall to 0ish this week (tick), then return to 3 once everything settles down. OK, YG is +5 today, but I'd expect it to go down to 0ish in a day or two.

    I agree with Richard N - to get a clearer picture, we need to wait till November.

  • philiph said:


    He can't tell me how Labour 1997 - 2010 prevented corporations evading or avoiding taxes.

    I don't hold out much hope for you getting a factual response.

    The extraordinary thing about Labour supporters is that they seem to think this is some game which is nothing to do with them, and yet they hope to be in government in a few months' time when the entire heap of manure will land in their lap. I've never seen anything remotely like it before. Of course Gordon Brown was equally out with the fairies, but he had the excuse that no-one expected him to be in government after May 2010, so he could spout any old garbage with impunity. The two Eds don't have that excuse.
    I recommend a small dosage of psilocybin.My daughter tells me the CIA wanted to put lysergic acid in the US water supply and some psychiatrists are recommending lithium carbonate currently for the collective mood disorders of austerity.It won't be long before shrooms are indicated for depression.
    http://jop.sagepub.com/content/25/11/1453.short

    http://www.forteantimes.com/features/articles/3421/reservoir_drugs.html


    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2011/dec/05/should-we-put-lithium-in-water
This discussion has been closed.