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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on The Curse of the Paisley Pyjamas

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
  • isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Conservatives: Nigel Farage is just making it up as he goes along.

    RT this to let friends know. http://t.co/boJlnh0Phw

    Haha that'll win em back!

    A bit like "Decide or decline"... it doesn't even really make sense: Farage wasn't the one who said it in the first place


    There speaks a supporter of one of two parties who created 'the Quad'


    They are all saloon bar gimmickery. Matrons were reintroduced by new Labour some years ago. Much of the rest is just what Burnham proposed a year ago.

    Its like Foot's manifesto of 83. Socialism combined with leaving the EU.
    Of course it is I'm sure Michael Foot would have put a Grammar School in every town, introduced Immigration controls that would actually restrict the levels of net immigration, scrapped the green energy subsidies, reformed Barnett, slashed International Aid, repealed the HRA, restricted child benefit, scrapped the 45p tax rate of income tax and the Inheritance Tax altogether.
    Yes but what will Farage's view be the day after the GE 2015? To predict that requires Mystic Meg.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by five points: CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    LAB 354 CON 248 LD 21 EICIPM
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    I'm really beginning to think,with the right split and it is.

    Many years of non tory rule,maybe even been replaced has the party of the right by UKIP.

    Edward Heath as something to answer for,joining the common market was the worst thing that could have happened to the conservative party,it destroyed it.

    That started it but I think the fatal act was knifing Thatcher. When you take down the most successful political figure in modern political history its inevitable that it will damage the party severely and it has. And this lot have the gall to lecture some of their own about loyalty when one of those who betrayed Thatcher have as late as last year held Cabinet Office. The Tories are a collective psychological mess who have pretty much lost all sense of proportion and priority.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    I'm really beginning to think,with the right split and it is.

    Many years of non tory rule,maybe even been replaced has the party of the right by UKIP.

    Edward Heath as something to answer for,joining the common market was the worst thing that could have happened to the conservative party,it destroyed it.

    That started it but I think the fatal act was knifing Thatcher. When you take down the most successful political figure in modern political history its inevitable that it will damage the party severely and it has. And this lot have the gall to lecture some of their own about loyalty when one of those who betrayed Thatcher have as late as last year held Cabinet Office. The Tories are a collective psychological mess who have pretty much lost all sense of proportion and priority.
    You do realise Thatcher was the reason why they were out of power for 13 years and are still toxic in the North, Scotland and Wales, dont you?
  • isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Conservatives: Nigel Farage is just making it up as he goes along.

    RT this to let friends know. http://t.co/boJlnh0Phw

    Haha that'll win em back!

    A it in the first place





    And I am broadly happy with what they have achieved.

    UKIP increasingly seems to have its major objective as causing maximum discomfort to Cameron, seemingly to distract from the vacuity of its own policies.

    The aptly named Bours speech on the NHS was outstanding in its superficiality last Friday. Clearly she is no threat to Farage...
    No but I can see that to neurotic Tories it seems that way and they are doing a pretty good job of turning the Tory world upside down

    As for Bours speech if you call these superficial

    1) Replacement of the CQC and other central health quangos with county boards
    2) The mandatory requirement for health insurance for Immigrant workers
    3) Opposition to TTIP in The NHS
    4) Introducing Licensing for NHS Bureaucrats
    5) The return of matron (wasn't that a Tory policy?)
    6) Plus a general commitment to keep the NHS free at the point of delivery and out of the hands of the private sector

    Granted it is perhaps not as in depth as one might desire but she only had 20 minutes or so to point out the key dividing lines. Of course her presentation left a great deal to be desired though.

    Anyway I thought Lansley's reform had fixed everything? So surely there isn't much to talk about? Oh wait a minute Labour want to repeal the whole lot don't they? I wonder why?

    But no Bours likely won't challenge Farage but there are a good few who I think could in due course (Woolfe, Evans, Nuttall, Collins, James etc).
    Of course it is I'm sure Michael Foot would have put a Grammar School in every town, introduced Immigration controls that would actually restrict the levels of net immigration, scrapped the green energy subsidies, reformed Barnett, repealed the HRA, restricted child benefit, scrapped the 45p tax rate of income tax and the Inheritance Tax altogether.

    These damn socialists!
    So all rather incoherent then. Socialism for the NHS, but the axe to other bits of the welfare state.

    So how is that different from Cameron's commitment to protect the NHS whilst dismantling other parts of the Welfare state? I mean the bedroom tax is such a roaring success that every other party wants to scrap it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kle4 said:

    Hugh said:





    Hugh, you're one of those depressingly myopic lefty posters who believe the other side are motivated by malice. There's little point debating you. Cameron, Osborne (not Gideon - he can choose his own name) and IDS believe fundamentally that people are best served by being in work. There is plenty of evidence to support this view. Work gives people a wage, self esteem, social interaction etc. Unfortunately our benefits system disincentivises work, in some cases even making it uneconomical to seek. That has led to a depressing spiral in which in some areas very large numbers of people are out of work and unemployment becomes entrenched and gifted from generation to generation. The standard left wing response has been to try to make those people's lives more comfortable. That is well intentioned, but I (and Cameron etc) would say, ultimately self defeating. In the long run people are better served by being nudge back into self-reliance. It is a very hard process, but it is motivated by good intentions.



    No, Cameron Osborne IDS and co think the poor are easy targets and will get them some good headlines in the nasty Rightwing press.

    They don't give a monkey's about "making work pay". That's why so many people in work are struggling, have to choose between heating and eating, even queuing at foodbanks that are creaking at the seams under the ever increasing pressure.

    If they genuinely wanted to "make work pay" they'd start by talking to employee groups - primarily Unions - about issues like zero hour contracts, ghost self employment, the living wage etc.

    They aren't, and they wont, because the Tories are Governing for one group of society, the only group they understand - the rich.
    Millions of people who are not rich vote Tory as well, even if Labour are more successful at winning seats in those areas in general. Are they just idiots, or perhaps all parties offer things for all groups in society but in different ways and with different successes, and that appeals to people rich and poor?

    Not only is it stupid to pretend any one party is automatically best at a particular policy area, it is illogical that the Tories or anyone else would only govern for one group in society - it is not a recipe for electoral success, and for all the mockery at the Tories inability (ongoing, given they will lose in 2015) to get a majority across the UK as a whole in a long time, they have attempted it and won a plurality at least, and their aim if obviously to win a majority somehow.
    I suppose Hugh would agree that as Labour see themselves as the party of the poor they have no incentive to change their lot otherwise they might stop voting for them.........
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece

    The Tories seems to be quite angry ! They fu**ed a country. Reckless, on the other hand, screwed just one CA.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited September 2014



    So all rather incoherent then. Socialism for the NHS, but the axe to other bits of the welfare state.


    As Gordon Henderson MP said today

    "But many of UKIP’s other policies were muddled and contradictory.

    "I came to the conclusion that the only real principles that UKIP have is: 1) present itself as not being either Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democratic and 2) to say whatever is necessary to win somebody’s vote. That is not a party with which I would feel comfortable."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11127832/Tory-MP-I-considered-defecting-to-Ukip-but-party-is-muddled-and-contradictory.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2014
    @ManofKent


    Advocating the privatisation of the NHS is electoral suicide, though when in power all seem to find a reason to break it up.

    Tax cuts for the rich, secondary moderns reintroduced, but scrapping the bedroom tax and saving the NHS.

    Farage has out done Gordon: he has a whole orchard of magic money trees.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    The Tories seems to be quite angry ! They fu**ed a country. Reckless, on the other hand, screwed just one CA.

    Like
  • Goodnight all.

    I hope you have all seen Marvellous? You still can on BBC iplayer. An uplifting programme about Britishness. Tears and laughter.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04jmx7l
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
    No yes no!

    My approach is going to be to get people to vote, not necessarily for me just to vote

    Re franchise the disenfranchised!

  • PS Just seen Evan Davis on Newsnight. WTF! Did the ears grow since he was last on the box? fKing extra from Lord of The Rings!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    bigjohnowls/manofkent Thatcher won 3 elections in a row and was recently voted best PM since the war in a yougov poll http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/12/06/prime-ministers-thatcher-best-brown-worst/

    She was the right leader for her time as Attlee was for his time, however by the time of the poll tax she had gone on too long
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Conservatives to pledge increase in personal tax allowance to £12,500 in manifesto. Clear attempt to outflank Lib Dems.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Night TC, I think he's always looked like that, and I read the review of the programme; I got the gist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TCPB Yes, watched it last Thursday, Toby Jones was superb, best TV drama I have seen in a long time
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    As we are approaching the 21st anniversary of the 1993 Canadian election, here are some videos just for Tories (just imagine it's the 2015 BBC election night broadcast):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rQdt26do44

    http://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special

    (Warning C-SPAN takes a minute to load, I recommend the 21st minute with the focus group members all angry shouting at each other and the 50th minute with the satire segment.)
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    I'm really beginning to think,with the right split and it is.

    Many years of non tory rule,maybe even been replaced has the party of the right by UKIP.

    Edward Heath as something to answer for,joining the common market was the worst thing that could have happened to the conservative party,it destroyed it.

    That started it but I think the fatal act was knifing Thatcher. When you take down the most successful political figure in modern political history its inevitable that it will damage the party severely and it has. And this lot have the gall to lecture some of their own about loyalty when one of those who betrayed Thatcher have as late as last year held Cabinet Office. The Tories are a collective psychological mess who have pretty much lost all sense of proportion and priority.
    You do realise Thatcher was the reason why they were out of power for 13 years and are still toxic in the North, Scotland and Wales, dont you?
    Clearly you saw the word Thatcher and typically for a Labour supporters had a bile spewing hissy fit which whilst I am sure makes you feel better does not actually add anything to the debate because if you had read my post, the implication of what I said is that she is at the root of Tory problems ever since. I hate to point it out to you but Gordon Brown was more unpopular in the south of England outside London than Cameron was in Scotland. So you should worry about your own toxicity......

    Chances are if she had remained Prime Minister she would likely have lost in 1992 and then stood down as leader. The Tory party would not have become so divided.Major would not have become Tory leader. There would have likely been far less attention on Tory sleaze in the nineties and the party would have been in a far better position than it actually was in 1997. Her defeat would also have acted have drawn a good bit of the poison built up in the 80's i suspect so from that perspective the Tories would not have been so toxic either.

    Kinnock would potentially have become Prime Minister and could have been thrown out in 1997, Blair would have had to wait his turn and may never have become leader. After that who knows? Knifing Thatcher was the most significant act during the second half of the 20th Century for the Tories.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    You just wish you did ;-)
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
    What does No Yes No get me?
  • I'm really beginning to think,with the right split and it is.

    Many years of non tory rule,maybe even been replaced has the party of the right by UKIP.

    Edward Heath as something to answer for,joining the common market was the worst thing that could have happened to the conservative party,it destroyed it.

    That started it but I think the fatal act was knifing Thatcher. When you take down the most successful political figure in modern political history its inevitable that it will damage the party severely and it has. And this lot have the gall to lecture some of their own about loyalty when one of those who betrayed Thatcher have as late as last year held Cabinet Office. The Tories are a collective psychological mess who have pretty much lost all sense of proportion and priority.
    You do realise Thatcher was the reason why they were out of power for 13 years and are still toxic in the North, Scotland and Wales, dont you?
    "What ifs" are always tricky things to argue, but there is an argument that the party's long-term interests would have been better served by letting Thatcher go on to 1992 and a probable defeat (the scale of which is tricky to estimate), as it would have avoided the mid-90s turmoil whilst in government and probably allowed the party to get its act together by the early 2000s (as a Kinnock government would have faced a large number of problems - 1992 was a bad election to win).

    That said, the 1992 victory allowed the Tories to cement their legacy much more effectively... It's swings and roundabouts.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour are just as toxic in the South and East as the Tories are in parts of the North. I wonder when they will actually get that, and god knows they need to, now that Ed has lost Scotland.

    Labour should be petrified that the WWC of Thurrock will turn to UKIP rather than Labour if they are disenchanted with the Tories.


  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    You just wish you did ;-)
    Not at all, best of both here
  • Is it me or is this Evan Davis questioning of Cam utterly risible?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Is it me or is this Evan Davis questioning of Cam utterly risible?

    It was good before he started this scenario business.
  • chestnut said:

    Labour are just as toxic in the South and East as the Tories are in parts of the North. I wonder when they will actually get that, and god knows they need to, now that Ed has lost Scotland.

    Labour should be petrified that the WWC of Thurrock will turn to UKIP rather than Labour if they are disenchanted with the Tories.


    Just watch the SNP implode under Sturgeon. Her problem, she's too honest.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    kieran said:

    Flockers - As I say there is little point in getting into a policy debate but I don't think yours or the government's argument is logically consistent.

    Kieran, I think it is subtler than that. You don't need to starve people; it's just a nudge here and a nudge there. The key phrase in my earlier post was "self-reliance". I define that broadly to include reliance on (principally) family members. Today's announcement is consistent with the theme that people need to become more self reliant - they can't rely on the state to fund a comfortable lifestyle because the state does not have a bottomless pit of money, and it is unhealthy to get into the habit of relying on state support. Ultimately policies like this should encourage people to work that bit harder in school, to knuckle down more at their job, to think twice about having children early, to stay at home a little longer, to push for that promotion, to look for that opportunity to train or develop skills, to move to that better paid job. None of this is easy, and it comes with no guarantees. People will suffer, some through nothing other than misfortune.

    I am sure there is an element of wanting to create a dividing line in this; there almost always is. But there are lots of much easier ways to earn some good headlines, and lots of much less risky policies they could pursue. If mishandled (virtually guaranteed!) they could get slammed, even by the papers you think they are doing this for. This really is much more about trying to shape Britain's culture and ethos.
    A nudge here a nudge there! Lol. Yeah, little nudge to the foodbank for disabled people.

    That you think "the State" funds a "comfortable" lifestyle for people without work shows you up for the clueless wonder that you are.

    The only people living a "comfortable" lifestyle courtesy of "the State" are the millionaires and inefficient big business who scrounge off the taxpayer via privatisation, outsourcing, tax dodging, bailouts. And boy do they love Gideon.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
    What does No Yes No get me?
    Somewhere to shop when you're feeling like a twat?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kieran said:


    To my mind there are three ways to really incentivise work:

    1. Effectively starve people and force them to work because the alternative is destitution.
    2. Increase the minimum wage or find some other way of increasing the wages of the low paid.
    3. Introduce a universal credit with a much, much lower taper (say 20% rather than 55% as proposed by this government). This would mean people only lose a little bit of their benefits as they start to earn and they are phased out more slowly. This is very expensive but arguably worth it due to the social value of incentivising work.

    What the government announced today is going to do next to nothing to incentivise work.

    I think it is fair to argue that the government is clearly doing this for political reasons, to create a dividing line with Labour. I don't think they are 'evil' I just think they have very little idea what it will mean to families who are really struggling at the moment. And they certainly care much more about their own election chances.

    Hang on a moment! Is this Government policy? Or is it Tory Party policy?

    These are not exactly the same thing, are they?
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece

    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    March 2015 is when people start to think about 2015.
  • What gets me is the pusillanimity of the Mirror sting. Does the left-wing press not have any totty of its own to prime the honeypot with honey? At least when the Telegraph ensnared Vince's nuclear weapon they used their own staff to do it, rather than photoshopping a Swedish model.
  • Artist said:

    Is it me or is this Evan Davis questioning of Cam utterly risible?

    It was good before he started this scenario business.
    Who cares whether Cam prefers pounds to kilos. A laughable question.

    I use pounds. So what?
  • @ManofKent


    Advocating the privatisation of the NHS is electoral suicide, though when in power all seem to find a reason to break it up.

    Tax cuts for the rich, secondary moderns reintroduced, but scrapping the bedroom tax and saving the NHS.

    Farage has out done Gordon: he has a whole orchard of magic money trees.

    No its just the way neurotic Tories have to see it that way because they cannot deal with reality. You guys have really lost the plot. After all how could Farage outdo Brown. Brown was Chancellor for a decade and Prime Minister for three years. Farage has yet to get into Parliament.

    I'll tell you who has outdone Brown and that's George Osborne who has borrowed more than Brown did (in fact he's on target to borrow more than every chancellor combined between 1945 and 2009)

    You guys really need to get a sense of perspective because Miliband is laughing at you. He has basically decided he can win on 35% because the Tories are so weak and incompetent they cannot beat Labour with only that 35% of the vote and all you lot are bothered about is making up sneery little stories about UKIP to make you feel better (coz they have no other effect)! Its little wonder the Tories are screwed and losing people to a party who got only 2% of the vote in 2010.....
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Populus, ICM, Ashcroft and Ipsos have all had Tory leads in recent months.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    philiph said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    March 2015 is when people start to think about 2015.
    There has never been a swingback so close to an election.
    Conferences are the last chance.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    philiph said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    March 2015 is when people start to think about 2015.
    Lol! PBTories, keep moving those goalposts.

    Come March 2015:- "We shouldn't expect swingback until early May"
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    kieran said:

    Flockers - As I say there is little point in getting into a policy debate but I don't think yours or the government's argument is logically consistent.

    Kieran, I think it is subtler than that. You don't need to starve people; it's just a nudge here and a nudge there. The key phrase in my earlier post was "self-reliance". I define that broadly to include reliance on (principally) family members. Today's announcement is consistent with the theme that people need to become more self reliant - they can't rely on the state to fund a comfortable lifestyle because the state does not have a bottomless pit of money, and it is unhealthy to get into the habit of relying on state support. Ultimately policies like this should encourage people to work that bit harder in school, to knuckle down more at their job, to think twice about having children early, to stay at home a little longer, to push for that promotion, to look for that opportunity to train or develop skills, to move to that better paid job. None of this is easy, and it comes with no guarantees. People will suffer, some through nothing other than misfortune.

    I am sure there is an element of wanting to create a dividing line in this; there almost always is. But there are lots of much easier ways to earn some good headlines, and lots of much less risky policies they could pursue. If mishandled (virtually guaranteed!) they could get slammed, even by the papers you think they are doing this for. This really is much more about trying to shape Britain's culture and ethos.
    A nudge here a nudge there! Lol. Yeah, little nudge to the foodbank for disabled people.

    That you think "the State" funds a "comfortable" lifestyle for people without work shows you up for the clueless wonder that you are.

    The only people living a "comfortable" lifestyle courtesy of "the State" are the millionaires and inefficient big business who scrounge off the taxpayer via privatisation, outsourcing, tax dodging, bailouts. And boy do they love Gideon.
    List the measures taken by Gordon Brown in all his years as CofE and PM against big business tax avoidance/evasion in one column and Osborne in the adjacent column.

    One is doing the job, the other made the evasion / avoidance easier.

    You are in for a big disillusionment if you think Labour have achieved anything in this sphere.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    You just wish you did ;-)
    Not at all, best of both here
    I also live in outer London - was just pulling your leg
  • Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    .

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??
    Rod's ToryMaj MkII Supercomputer is in for a service in a massive warehouse somewhere, we haven't heard much recently.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy -

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    March 2015 is when people start to think about 2015.
    There has never been a swingback so close to an election.
    Conferences are the last chance.
    Just as there has never been coalition, fixed term, internet and change.

    Spot the error. The past changes to the present. The past is not a fact in the 'Now'
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    philiph said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the rich. Surely the correct strategy is to think of ways to appeal to these voters and show their fears are unfounded?

    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    March 2015 is when people start to think about 2015.
    Lol! PBTories, keep moving those goalposts.

    Come March 2015:- "We shouldn't expect swingback until early May"
    That's fine. First five days.
  • JBriskin said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
    What does No Yes No get me?
    Somewhere to shop when you're feeling like a twat?

    What's twattish about Waitrose in particular? Arguably less twattish than the other supermarkets who pay their staff low wages and manage to mislay a quarter of a billion in their accounts
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)


    We don't need furrener obsessed kip types thanks, we're heading for power without them.
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.

    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the riccuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    I don't think "torpedoing" Cameron's speech will do much, there is a "diminishing returns" effect at work. And Tory hopes are pinned not on chartist nonsense about "swingback" but on the fact that labour are going into a general election under ed - the ed who made that conference speech last week, and got hustled out of a shopping centre in Edinburgh the week before. Intelligent labour supporters are shit scared of that prospect.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    JBriskin said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Who will give me a price I will be an MP in 2020?

    Have you ever uploaded a naked photograph of yourself onto the internet?

    And would that shorten or lengthen the odds?
    Good point! iSam, do you live in the vile frenchified Gomorrah of London?
    Technically but not culturally!
    Market research will be required before we can reach a decision on your digital snaps strategy.

    1. Do your prospective constituents consider a war with France a desirable policy for the next government?
    2. Is there a Waitrose shop in your constituency?
    3. Does your figure, in any lighting, resemble John Prescott's?
    What does No Yes No get me?
    Somewhere to shop when you're feeling like a twat?

    What's twattish about Waitrose in particular? Arguably less twattish than the other supermarkets who pay their staff low wages and manage to mislay a quarter of a billion in their accounts
    Yes, you are correct. I'm just biased because I've only ever literally been in one once.

    Oh, and I F-ing hate gbbo

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)
    We don't need furrener obsessed kip types thanks, we're heading for power without them.

    I'm coming after you pal ;-)
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Hugh said:

    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)
    We don't need furrener obsessed kip types thanks, we're heading for power without them.
    I'm coming after you pal ;-)


    Lol

    Go on, join, pay your subs, you know you wanna...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the riccuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    I don't think "torpedoing" Cameron's speech will do much, there is a "diminishing returns" effect at work. And Tory hopes are pinned not on chartist nonsense about "swingback" but on the fact that labour are going into a general election under ed - the ed who made that conference speech last week, and got hustled out of a shopping centre in Edinburgh the week before. Intelligent labour supporters are shit scared of that prospect.
    Spot the oxymoron
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the riccuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    I don't think "torpedoing" Cameron's speech will do much, there is a "diminishing returns" effect at work. And Tory hopes are pinned not on chartist nonsense about "swingback" but on the fact that labour are going into a general election under ed - the ed who made that conference speech last week, and got hustled out of a shopping centre in Edinburgh the week before. Intelligent labour supporters are shit scared of that prospect.
    I don't remember Cameron going outside in a scottish shopping centre during the final week.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    chestnut said:

    murali_s said:

    Straw and clutch come to mind...

    Scotland: SNP 39, Lab 29
    England: Tory 34, Lab 32

    Looking back at the %'s in Scotland at the GE in 2010, it was Lab 42% SNP 20%, so I make that a Labour to SNP swing of 16%. That would make the SNP comfortably on target to hit 30 seats + if they pick up most of the 9 or 10 LibDem seats projected to fall like sitting ducks. As I said last week, if Labour and the Tories are anywhere close together with around 30 LibDems, 18 NI, 5-10 UKIP and Galloway, then even Lab + LD or Tory + LD would be a minority. Right now if you had to pin me to a brick wall for my prediction, that would be it right now, but with things so fluid, so much can change over the next 7 and a bit months.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)
    We don't need furrener obsessed kip types thanks, we're heading for power without them.
    I'm coming after you pal ;-)
    Lol

    Go on, join, pay your subs, you know you wanna...

    Miliband leadership,I'll wait ;-)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........

    Rattled? Irritated.

    The election is there to be won, and this sideshow has created a way back in for Labour, possibly.



  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited September 2014

    Hughie posted -

    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.



    Just to let you know pal,I'm not a pb tory but I prefer Cameron to the clown miliband and this from someone from a former labour family.

    I might join the labour party,just to claim back the party that was anti common market and start getting rid of the pro EU,mass immigration loving clowns who have taken over the party my family used to vote for.

    Then you lot can fcuk off back to the lib dems ;-)


    Tyke, that dummy that just flew out of your mush nearly went as fast as Jags shot did right in front of the Kop.
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........


    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andrew Neil (@afneil)
    29/09/2014 22:46
    Fierce fighting reported on the outskirts of Baghdad as ISIS Jihadists fight one mile from western city boundary. So much for airstrikes.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.


    Flockers - I deliberately made my post about the politics rather than the policy. I think it's bad in policy terms too but I guess anyone who frequents this site has already made their mind up about that!

    I wasn't saying the Tories should adopt French levels of taxation. All they needed to do was introduce one or two small but symbolic tax increases which showed that we were truly 'all in it together'. Then in a 2nd term with the deficit falling they could move onto tax cuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard the economy. That's why it's important not to dilute and confuse the message.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??
    I can answer that, the average if I remember is about 10 months before an election.
    The earliest has been 18 months, while the closest has been 6 months.
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........


    Could be the tipping point though - the moment the Tories realized UKIP aren't some quaintly eccentric Tory re-enactment society but quasi-leftist iconoclasts set on smashing apart the old order just for the hell of it. It might get awfully bloody!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The poll done by ITV in the 40 most marginal Tory/Labour seats showing Labour 11% ahead.....have they not seen Jacks Arse?
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.

    I agree it is bizarre. i decided to ignore it initially but again it demonstrates how the Tories are losing the plot.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andrew Neil (@afneil)
    29/09/2014 22:51
    St George's Church, only Iraqi Anglican church: "Islamic State less than 2km away from Baghdad. Said it couldn't happen. Now it almost has".
  • Anyone know when the Opinium poll tables (yesterday's Observer) are coming out?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Ashcroft Poll today Tories 32% Labour 32%, Canada result 1993 Liberals 41%, Tories 16%, a ridiculous comparison. The Tories had also been in power for 9 years, not 5 years in a Coalition
  • The poll done by ITV in the 40 most marginal Tory/Labour seats showing Labour 11% ahead.....have they not seen Jacks Arse?

    Do you have a link to this poll?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    The poll done by ITV in the 40 most marginal Tory/Labour seats showing Labour 11% ahead.....have they not seen Jacks Arse?

    Yeah but that thing he does, with the countdown to his latest thing and everything. HILARIOUS!
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.
    I agree it is bizarre. i decided to ignore it initially but again it demonstrates how the Tories are losing the plot.

    Cameron still has the chance to pull it out if the bag with his speech later in the week
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.
    I agree it is bizarre. i decided to ignore it initially but again it demonstrates how the Tories are losing the plot.
    Cameron still has the chance to pull it out if the bag with his speech later in the week

    It'll get fawning coverage from the usual suspects, the Times, Sun, Mail, Torygraph. Yawn.

    And it'll mean nothing and change nothing.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Hugh - JW seems to have been more accurate than the professional polsters in the Scottish referendum.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Still on the subject of Scotland's 59 seats next May, if a Lab to SNP swing of 16% occurred, and follows closely the results of the yes vote 11 days ago, then IMHO it would be spread very efficiently for them, as the areas where they already have MP's in Moray, Angus, Banff & Buchan, Dundee East, Western Isles and Perth / North Perthshire wouldn't show that much net swing to them, whereas the areas in the central belt where they need to overhaul Labour would presumably be where the sensational 20% swings would be recorded or even more. I can't wait for the reaction of SLAB workers on the night if that happens! Not saying it will.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    That thing when you people call Osborne Gideon. That was hilarious. 5 years ago. Wasn't it?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    The poll done by ITV in the 40 most marginal Tory/Labour seats showing Labour 11% ahead.....have they not seen Jacks Arse?

    Do you have a link to this poll?
    No link, just come on ITV news, so I assume can be viewed on either ITV player or catchup.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    The time to start looking at the polls is after the Conference season has finished, say November. In normal circumstances, that is when I'd expect the beginning of a shift towards the Conservatives, as the reality of the choice begins to sink in.

    However, it may not happen, thanks to Ed's crack team under Nigel Farage, whose highly effective group is working hard to put the country back into decline.

    We shall see. In the meantime, I'd repeat my advice to arrange your affairs as much as you can to make them as Miliband-proof as possible.
  • chestnut said:

    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........

    Rattled? Irritated.

    The election is there to be won, and this sideshow has created a way back in for Labour, possibly.



    Yeah right...The Tories are losing the plot. Grant Schitts 'Liar Liar' rant, Geroge's trainspotting moment, Boris fantasising about the $exual uses of a Vacuum cleaner (not to forget Sicko Soubry's prior prediliction with Nigel Farage's bottom) and the ridiculous level of hysteria on here.

    In any case, the Tories lost the election the minute Clegg signed that Coalition agreement. It never was going to be there for the winning. Clawing back the electoral disadvantage in such circumstances was always going to be too much for them if they couldn't do it in 2010
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - Why is Merkel so electorally successful? Why was Blair? Why was Clinton? It's because they recognised why people did not vote for them and addressed that weakness. People care about both the economy and the NHS and if you can persuade them on both you should. It is madness to simply ignore your weaknesses and hope they will go away. Do you really think they're are a large pool of voters out there saying, "Well I'm thinking of voting Tory but I'm not sure if they'll be tough enough on the deficit or nasty enough to poor people?"

    Flockers - I didn't deal with your UKIP point. If the Tories had done what I suggested and had a clear lead in the polls I very much doubt you would have seen any more defections. In any event what is driving UKIP is not fiscal policy but cultural issues like immigration. If anything UKIP has a statist streak to the left of the conservatives on some economic issues (as much as they have actual policies!)

    Blair, and Clinton, were elected during times of huge economic prosperity, when voters felt they could afford to vote with more of a social conscience. Don't know anything about MerkeI I'm afraid.


    Perot split the vote, he was right to present a real alternative mind, and Bush was no Reagan. Clinton and Blair were both great salesmen who also benefited from the early 90s recession as well as long periods of rule for the other party.

    Parallels are never good although I do like the UKIP Canada one.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.
    I agree it is bizarre. i decided to ignore it initially but again it demonstrates how the Tories are losing the plot.
    Cameron still has the chance to pull it out if the bag with his speech later in the week
    It'll get fawning coverage from the usual suspects, the Times, Sun, Mail, Torygraph. Yawn.

    And it'll mean nothing and change nothing.

    Hugh

    I tried to list the numerous success of Labour 1997 to 2010 in combating corporate tax evasion and avoidance, and my list is blank.

    Can you do any better?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    Hugh said:

    murali_s said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - this is like Labour saying lets just abandon the economy to the Tories and just go on about the NHS. It's arguably what they have ended up doing but it is through sloppiness rather than strategic errors. Labour don't want to sign up to Tory spending plans but they are doing so to try and improve their electability.

    I will put another way. Why are people who would consider voting Tory not voting Tory now? What is holding them back? They already know that the Tories will focus on the deficit and make tough decisions. They are holding back because they think they are uncaring and only care about the riccuts.

    Yes, it's exactly like that. Labour can't win on the economy, so they steer clear. Tories can't win on taxing and spending more. Why would people vote Tory? Priorities. They might like lavish amounts to be spent on public services, but if they feel the economy is at risk, they may well go Tory to safeguard thessage.
    the tories don't have a message
    I don't agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think they're effective in Government, but 'mean but economically competent' is not a bad side to pick in these difficult times.

    Mean nasty party who sometimes eat babies...
    Just watch the labour cuts when in Government.

    Labour.....In Government......what about Swiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiingback?
    Yeah the PB Tories have gone a bit quiet on swingback crossover recently.

    All their voters are swinging back to hating them and crossing over to UKIP.
    I don't think there will be swingback if UKIP torpedo Cameron's speech.
    It's the Tories last hope that positive publicity from the conference will produce swingback, however due to defection and scandal there hasn't been any so far.
    I don't think "torpedoing" Cameron's speech will do much, there is a "diminishing returns" effect at work. And Tory hopes are pinned not on chartist nonsense about "swingback" but on the fact that labour are going into a general election under ed - the ed who made that conference speech last week, and got hustled out of a shopping centre in Edinburgh the week before. Intelligent labour supporters are shit scared of that prospect.
    I don't remember Cameron going outside in a scottish shopping centre during the final week.
    OK fine, nothing for labour to worry about then. My mistake.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Bobajob - Didn't realise there was already an article on here about it http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/29/comres-marginals-poll-is-out/
  • Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Bizarre to say Carswell has "something of the jackboot about him".

    I don't agree with his politics but he seems to be a perfectly pleasant and normal, decent bloke to me.
    I agree it is bizarre. i decided to ignore it initially but again it demonstrates how the Tories are losing the plot.
    Cameron still has the chance to pull it out if the bag with his speech later in the week

    I don't know how because from what i can see they have nothing eye-catching to offer and I wouldn't be surprised if Farage has another 'gift' for Dave to come.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    The time to start looking at the polls is after the Conference season has finished, say November. In normal circumstances, that is when I'd expect the beginning of a shift towards the Conservatives, as the reality of the choice begins to sink in.

    However, it may not happen, thanks to Ed's crack team under Nigel Farage, whose highly effective team is working hard to put the country back into decline.

    We shall see. In the meantime, I'd repeat my advice to arrange your affairs as much as you can to make them as Miliband-proof as possible.

    Lol.

    He's got no policies!

    He's got loads of policies, they're mad, run for the hills!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014

    Scott_P said:

    Mark Reckless allowed his local Tory association to spend £6,000 on personalised leaflets just a week before he defected to Ukip, activists have claimed.

    Members of Mr Reckless’s Conservative association said last night that a huge amount of literature would now be wasted, including leaflets for nine local wards, which feature photographs of Mr Reckless. “It just shows that he’s a complete bastard,” said one organiser.

    Andrew Mackness, a Conservative councillor on Medway council, described the MP as “utterly disloyal” and “a man of no integrity”. Craig Mackinlay, another local councillor, said that he was “absolutely disgusted” at his decision.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4221819.ece
    Strange how Carswell, who has something of the jackboot about him, was proclaimed the most moral human this side of 1 AD, yet Reckless, who looks like your favourite music teacher, gets the sh*t poured all over him. Life can be unfair.
    It just demonstrates further how much this one has really rattled the Tories. This is clearly becoming their Kevin Keegan moment. They are losing the plot........
    Could be the tipping point though - the moment the Tories realized UKIP aren't some quaintly eccentric Tory re-enactment society but quasi-leftist iconoclasts set on smashing apart the old order just for the hell of it. It might get awfully bloody!

    Doesn't seem like a tipping point. A lot of Tories are still seeing UKIP as people to work with, rather than opponents (albeit opponents whom they agree with on several things), and in doing so are showing their bellies. Seriously opposing UKIP (as opposed to the leadership mocking them but hordes of others in the party wishing they were more like UKIP) may not work to reverse the Tories' dire fortunes, but it has to have a better chance than pretending UKIP are still just Tories on holiday who all despise Ed M, and if the Tories just do whatever UKIP want, they will not let Ed M in.

    Night all.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    FalseFlag said:

    kieran said:

    Luckyguy - Why is Merkel so electorally successful? Why was Blair? Why was Clinton? It's because they recognised why people did not vote for them and addressed that weakness. People care about both the economy and the NHS and if you can persuade them on both you should. It is madness to simply ignore your weaknesses and hope they will go away. Do you really think they're are a large pool of voters out there saying, "Well I'm thinking of voting Tory but I'm not sure if they'll be tough enough on the deficit or nasty enough to poor people?"

    Flockers - I didn't deal with your UKIP point. If the Tories had done what I suggested and had a clear lead in the polls I very much doubt you would have seen any more defections. In any event what is driving UKIP is not fiscal policy but cultural issues like immigration. If anything UKIP has a statist streak to the left of the conservatives on some economic issues (as much as they have actual policies!)

    Blair, and Clinton, were elected during times of huge economic prosperity, when voters felt they could afford to vote with more of a social conscience. Don't know anything about MerkeI I'm afraid.


    Perot split the vote, he was right to present a real alternative mind, and Bush was no Reagan. Clinton and Blair were both great salesmen who also benefited from the early 90s recession as well as long periods of rule for the other party.

    Parallels are never good although I do like the UKIP Canada one.
    For the US election in 2016, I think we'll have already had a year of economic downturn but I think the Republicans will split under Boehner, and we'll get a big rise in 3rd party support like we saw under Perot in 1992.Who exactly that 3rd party candidate will be is anyone's guess, but I think we will see a very strong Tea Party Mark II when we get the critical ingredient of the economy turning down late on next year.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    The time to start looking at the polls is after the Conference season has finished, say November. In normal circumstances, that is when I'd expect the beginning of a shift towards the Conservatives, as the reality of the choice begins to sink in.

    However, it may not happen, thanks to Ed's crack team under Nigel Farage, whose highly effective team is working hard to put the country back into decline.

    We shall see. In the meantime, I'd repeat my advice to arrange your affairs as much as you can to make them as Miliband-proof as possible.

    Lol.

    He's got no policies!

    He's got loads of policies, they're mad, run for the hills!

    Just loads of bad polices that are incoherent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Isam We were told that in the summer, they never got to Baghdad. Iraq 2/3 Shia, 1/3 Sunni, if they tried to enter Baghdad the Shia militias would greet them, perhaps backed by Iran, in which case US and western airstrikes could be supporting the Revolutionary Guard
  • Bobajob - Didn't realise there was already an article on here about it http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/29/comres-marginals-poll-is-out/

    Ah thanks - yes saw that
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    Lol.

    He's got no policies!

    He's got loads of policies, they're mad, run for the hills!

    Well, if you can tell us his policies for cutting public spending as his Shadow Chancellor says he will, Political Betting will have the journalistic scoop of the year.

    Over to you.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    The time to start looking at the polls is after the Conference season has finished, say November. In normal circumstances, that is when I'd expect the beginning of a shift towards the Conservatives, as the reality of the choice begins to sink in.

    However, it may not happen, thanks to Ed's crack team under Nigel Farage, whose highly effective group is working hard to put the country back into decline.

    We shall see. In the meantime, I'd repeat my advice to arrange your affairs as much as you can to make them as Miliband-proof as possible.

    You'll need to rearrange your affairs irrespective of who wins next May when economic confidence falls apart from October next year regardless. We'll get some hairbrained economic measures for a quick fix - protectionism, sanctions on those we dislike, capital controls etc - all tried and failed measures in hard economic times in the past.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Hugh said:

    Lol.

    He's got no policies!

    He's got loads of policies, they're mad, run for the hills!

    Well, if you can tell us his policies for cutting public spending as his Shadow Chancellor says he will, Political Betting will have the journalistic scoop of the year.

    Over to you.
    He can't tell me how Labour 1997 - 2010 prevented corporations evading or avoiding taxes.

    I don't hold out much hope for you getting a factual response.
  • hunchman said:

    You'll need to rearrange your affairs irrespective of who wins next May when economic confidence falls apart from October next year regardless. We'll get some hairbrained economic measures for a quick fix - protectionism, sanctions on those we dislike, capital controls etc - all tried and failed measures in hard economic times in the past.

    In which case there is nothing to lose in following my advice.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2014


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RodCrosby said:


    When was swingback supposed to start? Rod Crosby??

    It started about 18 months ago. You just didn't notice...
    Or didn't want to see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Bobajob Well Ashcroft's poll today had Tories and Labour tied, if that isn't swingback what is?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    HYUFD said:

    Bobajob Well Ashcroft's poll today had Tories and Labour tied, if that isn't swingback what is?

    But that is tigger on a trampoline
This discussion has been closed.