Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Yes - displays a certain simplicity of (not to say simplistic) analysis.....Its a bit more complicated than 'we won, they lost.....'
As the article itself points out the SNP have suffered far big reverses in Osborne's lifetime than getting support for a Yes vote from 25% to 45% in two years.
If he genuinely thinks what he said rather than just trying to create a reality bending soundbite then he is a buffoon.
The whole purpose of devolution way back in1998 was to stop the nationalists and create a labour hegemony. Devolution itself was a defeat for unionists. And what came as a result of devolution? More Nationalism. A nationalist government. To me that is a strange definition of nationalist reverses. What we have just had is a specific vote on independence and it failed by a significant majority. Mr Nelson's argument seems to me to be founded on the fact that many who voted Yes were not interested in 'independence' but theoir own miserable self esteeem and sense of entitlement.
I wonder if the comments space on this blog are becoming as big a haven for irrational malcontents as is Mr Nelsons own.
I'm fairly certain the catastrophic collapse in the SNP vote after the '79 referendum and general election counts as a reverse that happened in Osborne's lifetime.
The Tories had better hope Osborne is saving his best rabbits for Autumn Statement/Budget
I think that's exactly what he's doing. Osborne is pure politics.
It's a bit like deciding when to break for it in the velodrome sprint. He's been forced a bit higher up the track by slipping his wheel on a highly polished UKIP, and has fallen slightly behind the Labour leading rider. The rider who is quietly confident can maintain his lead for the next 2 laps.
Prepare for a photo finish.
Not sure I understand the metaphor, but I don't think there will be any rabbits in the sense of giveaways. You were right in what you said a few moments ago: "serious man you can trust with economic credibility". It would be absolutely crazy to torpedo that - which is after all the strongest card the Tories have got - with giveaways, which would only serve to make people think they prefer Labour's fudges and giveaways (whatever they are - will we ever know?).
Of course he might be able to pull out some inexpensive rabbits, and I expect he will. The pensions one today - an excellent measure in its own right, as Ros Altmann's article explains - is an example, but it's a small one in the overall scheme of things.
I'm a big fan of track cycling. Osborne is the Chris Hoy in the 1:1 economics sprint race final.
By giveaways, I don't mean unfunded giveaways. I mean highly targeted reforms that will speak to floating voters disproportionately. They must be structured around aspiration and rewarding hard work. Such as his pension reforms earlier this year. And his IHT pledge in 2007.
I gave a few ideas here a few days ago: a commitment to cut fuel duty, with a pre-annoucement of further future cuts; a reaffirmation to take all family homes out of inheritance tax (at £1m+); a 'ladder' to increase the 40% tax threshold over the next parliament to take out middle earners; a reform of council tax (to counter labours mansion tax) to extend bands at the upper end. All renters then get the 25% single person's discount, and the landlord pays the balance.
People need help to see the rewards that will ultimately result to buy into the tough choices now.
Osborne ? Reforms ?
In your dreams. To appeal to voters that the slog is worth it he should have started 4 years ago to put some credibility behind the words and watch the benefits kick in around new.
He didn't ; so now anything he promises just looks like the empty electioneering it is.
I don't think the pension reforms are an illusion, nor the raising of the IT threshold to £10k. But I agree he could have done more.
It's quite clear from the early smoke signals from the Tory neanderthaals in Birmingham that the cpc14 is following a core vote strategy.1.ripping foxes to pieces bite by bite is designed to appease their trade union paymasters in the NFU-expect an announcement to end the neonic ban as well,the eradication of bees v.popular with donors.2.complete silence on climate change-Cameron and Osborne know 70% of Tory MPs are climate change deniers.None of this green crap to be seen,even the tree in the logo has virtualised.3.attack benefits and pretend it affects those who doss around all day on the sofa on political betting blogs when it is actually people who are working,mainly in low paid jobs,who get hit the hardest.Definitely a programme for committed Tories, a core vote strategy with lots of clear green water between the Tories and everyone else,notably 97% of science.
It's quite clear from the early smoke signals from the Tory neanderthaals in Birmingham that the cpc14 is following a core vote strategy.1.ripping foxes to pieces bite by bite is designed to appease their trade union paymasters in the NFU-expect an announcement to end the neonic ban as well,the eradication of bees v.popular with donors.2.complete silence on climate change-Cameron and Osborne know 70% of Tory MPs are climate change deniers.None of this green crap to be seen,even the tree in the logo has virtualised.3.attack benefits and pretend it affects those who doss around all day on the sofa on political betting blogs when it is actually people who are working,mainly in low paid jobs,who get hit the hardest.Definitely a programme for committed Tories, a core vote strategy with lots of clear green water between the Tories and everyone else,notably 97% of science.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
and Tories are going to take everyone human rights away in the UK.That gets the rabid right frothing.All that's left is the restoration of the death penalty and the repeal of gay marriage for the full Monty core vote strategy.
Think you need to concentrate on the reality instead of deflecting to fantasy. 6 poxy planes is all the UK can manage , what an embarrassing joke , and UK always boasting about being one of the worlds major powers. LOL hopefully Dave does not upset Norway or Denmark in near future.
Is it 'all we can manage', or 'all we need' to meet current requirements in the theatre? I'm pretty sure we didn't send all our aviation assets to Operation Granby, which was a much bigger intervention.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
How did UKIP do in H&H in May?
Didn't DD say two days ago he'll die a Conservative? So my guess it's not him.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
Brooks Newmark sex sting: Ipso to investigate Sunday Mirror Complaint over ‘entrapment’ leading to minister’s resignation provides first big test for regulator set up after Leveson inquiry
Pleeeaaaase let it be someone that has been praised on here by Conservatives so the hypocrisy level reaches new heights!
You seem to be struggling here - it's the deed that earns the displeasure not the personality (well generally).... and especially the manner in which they turncoat.
Hence Reckless is a bigger pig-dog-traitor than Carswell.
It would be great to have David Davis. The people I most want to defect are civil liberties advocates and non-isolationists.
UKIP do look a bit too isolationist currently, don't they.
Nope. They look like a refreshing change from the usual unaffordable and disastrous American coat-tailing. If it upsets Telegraph columnists, so much the better.
It would be great to have David Davis. The people I most want to defect are civil liberties advocates and non-isolationists.
UKIP do look a bit too isolationist currently, don't they.
Nope. They look like a refreshing change from the usual unaffordable and disastrous American coat-tailing. If it upsets Telegraph columnists, so much the better.
But what our own oppressed down-trodden Socrates here. Think of him.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
How did UKIP do in H&H in May?
Didn't DD say two days ago he'll die a Conservative? So my guess it's not him.
Whether that's small or large 'c' is open to interpretation. However, I don't think DD should cross over. His best bet is to remain within the Conservatives and wait for Cameron to be deposed.
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
Brooks Newmark sex sting: Ipso to investigate Sunday Mirror Complaint over ‘entrapment’ leading to minister’s resignation provides first big test for regulator set up after Leveson inquiry
Yes, that will help people forget about it. Well done, Mark Pritchard, MP.
Au contraire, I expect the full glare of publicity given to News Corp malfeasance from Labour the BBC, Guardian et al will now focus laser like on Trinity Mirror group.....or not.....(in fairness to the Guardian, they are leading this & their media correspondent was on R4 saying the Mirror had crossed the line)......
Interestingly both the Sun and Sunday Mail turned down the story - imagine - lower ethical standards than either the Sun or Mail!
Brooks Newmark sex sting: Ipso to investigate Sunday Mirror Complaint over ‘entrapment’ leading to minister’s resignation provides first big test for regulator set up after Leveson inquiry
Yes, that will help people forget about it. Well done, Mark Pritchard, MP.
Au contraire, I expect the full glare of publicity given to News Corp malfeasance from Labour the BBC, Guardian et al will now focus laser like on Trinity Mirror group.....or not.....(in fairness to the Guardian, they are leading this & their media correspondent was on R4 saying the Mirror had crossed the line)......
Interestingly both the Sun and Sunday Mail turned down the story - imagine - lower ethical standards than either the Sun or Mail!
It was catching a tory..I would imagine they collectively lose their sense of judgement when they sniff something..
Pleeeaaaase let it be someone that has been praised on here by Conservatives so the hypocrisy level reaches new heights!
You seem to be struggling here - it's the deed that earns the displeasure not the personality (well generally).... and especially the manner in which they turncoat.
Hence Reckless is a bigger pig-dog-traitor than Carswell.
Not that complex.
Don't worry, I am not struggling, I'm loving it
Carswell was criticised for the timing of his defection on here as well, and had mud slung at him re stealing party data, letting down his electorate etc
The next one will be worse for no other reason than they are the latest one
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
How did UKIP do in H&H in May?
Didn't DD say two days ago he'll die a Conservative? So my guess it's not him.
Whether that's small or large 'c' is open to interpretation. However, I don't think DD should cross over. His best bet is to remain within the Conservatives and wait for Cameron to be deposed.
Speaking as Not a Tory (tm), David Davis will never be Conservative leader. The party dodged a bullet back in 2005.
Pleeeaaaase let it be someone that has been praised on here by Conservatives so the hypocrisy level reaches new heights!
You seem to be struggling here - it's the deed that earns the displeasure not the personality (well generally).... and especially the manner in which they turncoat.
Hence Reckless is a bigger pig-dog-traitor than Carswell.
Not that complex.
Don't worry, I am not struggling, I'm loving it
Carswell was criticised for the timing of his defection on here as well, and had mud slung at him re stealing party data, letting down his electorate etc
The next one will be worse for no other reason than they are the latest one
I don't blame you for enjoying yourself - i would in your position.
Brooks Newmark sex sting: Ipso to investigate Sunday Mirror Complaint over ‘entrapment’ leading to minister’s resignation provides first big test for regulator set up after Leveson inquiry
Yes, that will help people forget about it. Well done, Mark Pritchard, MP.
Au contraire, I expect the full glare of publicity given to News Corp malfeasance from Labour the BBC, Guardian et al will now focus laser like on Trinity Mirror group.....or not.....(in fairness to the Guardian, they are leading this & their media correspondent was on R4 saying the Mirror had crossed the line)......
Interestingly both the Sun and Sunday Mail turned down the story - imagine - lower ethical standards than either the Sun or Mail!
To be really serious, it might be nice if politicians took a closer look at the use of entrapment by the police investigating serious crime.
But UKIP for me need a big labour name/MP to start taking labour seats and not just to be cast as the real true blue tory party,by the labour opponents.
With all you Tories denying you are Tories despite voting Tory and supporting Tory policies who can blame their MPs for defecting? At least Kippers are proud to be Kippers
I have no doubt that if there is another defector UKIP will unveil him just as Cameron comes on stage to do his speech. Very grown up.
Yeah, they've given up any pretence of not being motivated primarily by a wish to wreck the Conservative Party and Cameron in particular. I guess this is more one for psychiatrists than psephologists to explain, since in political terms it is so spectacularly counter-productive. Good for Ed, though.
This new death tax repeal on pensions is a bit of a blow to my trading position in the enhanced annuity providers taken after the budget. I'm now sitting on a loss of more than £7,000....
I suppose it's a CGT loss which I could use elsewhere.... some day...
Good shout. He has form/balls (depending on your point of view) and it looks like his constituency might be in the UKIP sweet spot. He's also close to Iain Dale.
How did UKIP do in H&H in May?
Didn't DD say two days ago he'll die a Conservative? So my guess it's not him.
Whether that's small or large 'c' is open to interpretation. However, I don't think DD should cross over. His best bet is to remain within the Conservatives and wait for Cameron to be deposed.
Speaking as Not a Tory (tm), David Davis will never be Conservative leader. The party dodged a bullet back in 2005.
I think his heart is in the right place, but his instincts aren't finely tuned. Despite making some very good calls over the years, the way he does things tends to make him look cheap. A bit like Nadine Dorries (only she's much worse). Still, he will still have a shot after Cameron's ignominious departure. I simply don't understand the next leader betting market surrounding May, Hammond, Hague, Osborne -the losers on Cameron's inner circle. They will be totally toxic.
Sean Fear's earlier post confirmed. Labour conference boost...for the Tories
Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (-1), Con 34 (+1), LD 7 (-2), UKIP 14 (+1), Oth 9 (+1)
Labour massive majority nailed on.
Con-UKIP up to 48%. Encouraging to see UMP and NF cooperation leading to NF's first seats in the Senate. Lib Dems must be delighted as we Europeanise and drift towards a coalition of hard right and centre right.
Pleeeaaaase let it be someone that has been praised on here by Conservatives so the hypocrisy level reaches new heights!
You seem to be struggling here - it's the deed that earns the displeasure not the personality (well generally).... and especially the manner in which they turncoat.
Hence Reckless is a bigger pig-dog-traitor than Carswell.
Not that complex.
Don't worry, I am not struggling, I'm loving it
Carswell was criticised for the timing of his defection on here as well, and had mud slung at him re stealing party data, letting down his electorate etc
The next one will be worse for no other reason than they are the latest one
Some Tories were even saying that the act of standing down so that the public had a choice about whether they wanted to re-elect them based on their new affiliation was a "publicity stunt" and a "waste of public money". It's comical.
I have no doubt that if there is another defector UKIP will unveil him just as Cameron comes on stage to do his speech. Very grown up.
Yeah, they've given up any pretence of not being motivated primarily by a wish to wreck the Conservative Party and Cameron in particular. I guess this is more one for psychiatrists than psephologists to explain, since in political terms it is so spectacularly counter-productive. Good for Ed, though.
A political party timing announcements so that it maximises their exposure and damages the message of rival parties! How dare they!
The thing the psychiatrists would better spend their time on is the frothing at the mouth of Tories whenever an MP decides that their views are best accommodated elsewhere. Even your own MEPs are describing it as "irrational rage".
@jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
That's the most interesting part to me.
Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.
Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.
It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless
If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?
How much do you want?
Depends on the odds
What do you think fair?
That's for you to decide!
Its not a challenge, you don't have to offer any if you don't want to.. .no pressure at all
I don't bet for a living, so don't price as a rule.
Its easy really, just think about what percentage chance you think something has of happening, then divide 100 by that number.. voila! You have your Betfair price
Don't worry about this one anyway if you don't want to, I don't mind
I'd approach it differently (because I think it is low probability, but want to keep the upside myself!)
So I'd say , for an investment that I could lose everything, I'd want a 20% + return on equity on an annualised basis.
Which means I'd need a 10% return between now and the election (taking that as the cut off).
So I'd offer you 7-1. But I'm sure you will find someone on betfair who will offer better odds.
Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past? One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces. Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.
* I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Militarily it's here nor there.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
It is merely willy waving by someone with erectile dysfunction
A bit like Salmond, and the 12 Typhoons he was going to keep for the separatist air force.
12 would be more than sufficient for a small peaceful country.
Norway has 57 F16s, Denmark has 30........
And your point is, we need to avoid willy waving it is not a competition to see who has most planes. Fact that UK can only muster 6 is a real joke.
There's a difference between 'muster' and 'commit' - there are still plenty of Tornados thundering around Norfolk airfields.
What would the Scottish Separatist Air Force send - Eck on a Ryder Cup golf buggy with a kite?
Think you need to concentrate on the reality instead of deflecting to fantasy. 6 poxy planes is all the UK can manage , what an embarrassing joke , and UK always boasting about being one of the worlds major powers. LOL hopefully Dave does not upset Norway or Denmark in near future.
Are you really so dim as to think that there are only 6 serviceable Tornados?
There must be something in the water up there, that addles the brains of separatists.
Are you such a liar that you keep spouting them , give up your fantasies about independence. Just hate Scots in your tiny mind, nobody cares what wet dreams you have.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
Militarily it's here nor there.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
It is merely willy waving by someone with erectile dysfunction
A bit like Salmond, and the 12 Typhoons he was going to keep for the separatist air force.
12 would be more than sufficient for a small peaceful country.
Norway has 57 F16s, Denmark has 30........
malcolm's 12, equates to 3 airworthy, 3 spares, and 6 in maintenance/deep maintenance. Pointless.
Ha Ha Ha , we will see how long the 6 UK has last , wonder how many of them can fly at once , or are they maintenance free. They could always tow their mobile football field over and really have ISIS cowering in fear, it has ONE fibreglass model airplane to help out.
Vacuous comments like that show what a better place this is when you are on holiday.
Think you need to concentrate on the reality instead of deflecting to fantasy. 6 poxy planes is all the UK can manage , what an embarrassing joke , and UK always boasting about being one of the worlds major powers. LOL hopefully Dave does not upset Norway or Denmark in near future.
Is it 'all we can manage', or 'all we need' to meet current requirements in the theatre? I'm pretty sure we didn't send all our aviation assets to Operation Granby, which was a much bigger intervention.
malky's trolling. Or he's spectacularly thick.
Probably both. :-)
That from two of the biggest plonkers on the site LOL, a sad fantasist and a whinger.
Comments
I'll bugger them up from the inside.
UKIP has made the point that low paid workers and other vulnerable low income groups are hurt most by green taxes.
Do you disagree??
How did UKIP do in H&H in May?
"I will die a Tory"
twitter.com/journodave/status/516557801423122432
Hence Reckless is a bigger pig-dog-traitor than Carswell.
Not that complex.
Interestingly both the Sun and Sunday Mail turned down the story - imagine - lower ethical standards than either the Sun or Mail!
I am the defector.
It's a bit silly indeed.
Or is some traitorous pig dog going to derail it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8h_v_our_Q
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/29/Hannan-only-a-ukip-tory-pact/
I wouldn't be surprised if Hannan was the first of the tory MEP to join UKIP.
Publish and be damned!
Carswell was criticised for the timing of his defection on here as well, and had mud slung at him re stealing party data, letting down his electorate etc
The next one will be worse for no other reason than they are the latest one
Snap?
I just fear a Labour government under Ed squared.
Your last sentence is nonsense again however.
Opening prices for UKIP
Clacton 4/6
Rochester 1/2
And people on here said Conservatives were the value in Clacton
With all you Tories denying you are Tories despite voting Tory and supporting Tory policies who can blame their MPs for defecting? At least Kippers are proud to be Kippers
This new death tax repeal on pensions is a bit of a blow to my trading position in the enhanced annuity providers taken after the budget. I'm now sitting on a loss of more than £7,000....
I suppose it's a CGT loss which I could use elsewhere.... some day...
That's politics. Suck it up.
Game theory says do what your opponent least wants you to do.
Con-UKIP up to 48%. Encouraging to see UMP and NF cooperation leading to NF's first seats in the Senate. Lib Dems must be delighted as we Europeanise and drift towards a coalition of hard right and centre right.
Given that Ukip's main goal is the destroy the Tory Party and replace it, presumably such an act would be highly rational?
The thing the psychiatrists would better spend their time on is the frothing at the mouth of Tories whenever an MP decides that their views are best accommodated elsewhere. Even your own MEPs are describing it as "irrational rage".
So I'd say , for an investment that I could lose everything, I'd want a 20% + return on equity on an annualised basis.
Which means I'd need a 10% return between now and the election (taking that as the cut off).
So I'd offer you 7-1. But I'm sure you will find someone on betfair who will offer better odds.
* I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.