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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Number 5 on the BBC's most read articles today, "UK loses triple AAA credit rating" from 2013. The other day it was "double dip recession" from 2012.

    You might be inclined to think that the BBC website is being targeted by political activists to place political adverts. They simply drive traffic towards negative political stories and up they come on the BBC's front page.

    It also makes me wonder about the veracity of panel related/online polling findings if this kind of activity is going on.
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    Isam [8.58am] Quite. Most of the "faithful" - of any religion - couldn't tell you which practice is scriptural and which cultural, which idea they got from their present priest or imam or rabbi or whoever and which from their grandmother's knee. And they can't tell you because they don't want to, and they don't want to because doing so brings up a sense of fear.

    We are all - on this Forum - operating as Enlightened (or post-Enlightened) individuals, because to think outside that box brings up fear in us. We've been programmed to think that the fulfilled life presupposes individuation. The majority of humanity, past and present, bears witness to the fact that it ain't necessarily so.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    Mr. Isam, different migrant groups have actually integrated that well. Chinese immigrants would seem to be excellent at integrating. The ones I've known (at school) had English first names and were academic high achievers, which tallies with the (positive) stereotype.

    We can't do the test, but a parallel universe where we had the same number of new Muslims but they'd come from Turkey instead of Pakistan would be interesting to observe.

    Numbers do matter, but so does culture.

    The reception they received also encouraged a lack of integration (goes against multi-culturalism to suggest when in Britain do as the British do), and the very high numbers made it easy for enclaves to be formed.

    "Turkey instead of Pakistan". Like Germany?
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    Mr. Chestnut, funny you should mention that. I noticed the other day a 'top story' was Gove saying the Queen should have a royal yacht for the Jubilee (the article was from 2012).
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    chestnut said:

    Number 5 on the BBC's most read articles today, "UK loses triple AAA credit rating" from 2013. The other day it was "double dip recession" from 2012.

    You might be inclined to think that the BBC website is being targeted by political activists to place political adverts. They simply drive traffic towards negative political stories and up they come on the BBC's front page.

    It also makes me wonder about the veracity of panel related/online polling findings if this kind of activity is going on.

    Must be some people with time on their hands.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Isam, different migrant groups have actually integrated that well. Chinese immigrants would seem to be excellent at integrating. The ones I've known (at school) had English first names and were academic high achievers, which tallies with the (positive) stereotype.

    We can't do the test, but a parallel universe where we had the same number of new Muslims but they'd come from Turkey instead of Pakistan would be interesting to observe.

    Numbers do matter, but so does culture.

    The reception they received also encouraged a lack of integration (goes against multi-culturalism to suggest when in Britain do as the British do), and the very high numbers made it easy for enclaves to be formed.

    "Turkey instead of Pakistan". Like Germany?
    Turkish Germans came from central Anatolia which was similar to Pakistan in a lot of ways. They were also discouraged from integrating on the pretense they'd go back to Turkey eventually. The interesting group to hypothesise about would be Malaysians and Indonesians.
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    King Cole, yes and no. It's my understanding most of the Gastarbeiter went to Germany a while ago, whereas a lot of the immigration here from Pakistan is more recent. I know there are/were racial tensions in Germany (I did my GCSE coursework in the form of a Gastarbeiter's diary), but that seems predominantly economic in cause (ie they're taking our jobs etc) rather than social/cultural.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    edited September 2014


    I thought one of the 'revelations' of the Scottish vote, was that Labour don't have a ground game either.

    By and large, Labour ONLY has a decent ground game in marginals - that's why we keep being shocked to discover when someone dies that the contact rate in his safe seat was zero. I'd like to see the whips do something about this - you want promotion, let's see you get your contact rate up. But we do have a generally very effective ground game in marginals.

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    Colour me cynical but I still think this is being whipped up to keep the Honourable Member's honourable member off the front pages.
    Whatever the motivations, the Tories are being unwise to go on about it. The message of a defector is "We're a divided party." The message of this sort of response is, "YES! We're a divided party, and the people I disagree with are ***********s!" The correct response is polite regret and changing the subject, as though a distant acquaintance announced that he had measles - a pity, but no big deal to you.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    edited September 2014

    Isam [8.58am] Quite. Most of the "faithful" - of any religion - couldn't tell you which practice is scriptural and which cultural, which idea they got from their present priest or imam or rabbi or whoever and which from their grandmother's knee. And they can't tell you because they don't want to, and they don't want to because doing so brings up a sense of fear.

    We are all - on this Forum - operating as Enlightened (or post-Enlightened) individuals, because to think outside that box brings up fear in us. We've been programmed to think that the fulfilled life presupposes individuation. The majority of humanity, past and present, bears witness to the fact that it ain't necessarily so.

    I don’t think, although I’m very willing to learn otherwise that either “The West” or Christianity got to their present intellectual position as a result of outside pressure. AFAIK it was more as a result of intellectual evolution.

    I don’t think, either that the faithful won’t tell you from whence they learned whatever; they genuinely don’t know. Remember that song from South Pacific “You’ve got to be taught/before it’s late/to hate all the people your relatives hate” and so on.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    dr_spyn said:

    chestnut said:

    Number 5 on the BBC's most read articles today, "UK loses triple AAA credit rating" from 2013. The other day it was "double dip recession" from 2012.

    You might be inclined to think that the BBC website is being targeted by political activists to place political adverts. They simply drive traffic towards negative political stories and up they come on the BBC's front page.

    It also makes me wonder about the veracity of panel related/online polling findings if this kind of activity is going on.

    Must be some people with time on their hands.
    It wasn't just those, albeit to PBers they are the easiest to spot as out of date. There were others ("Why, oh why, does it keep raining?", 2012) and so it's almost certainly an algorithm malfunction. I believe they put in a filter that downvalued old stories anyway (because you wouldn't choose to browse the archive like that) and they must have removed it.
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    Isam [8.58am] Quite. Most of the "faithful" - of any religion - couldn't tell you which practice is scriptural and which cultural, which idea they got from their present priest or imam or rabbi or whoever and which from their grandmother's knee. And they can't tell you because they don't want to, and they don't want to because doing so brings up a sense of fear.

    We are all - on this Forum - operating as Enlightened (or post-Enlightened) individuals, because to think outside that box brings up fear in us. We've been programmed to think that the fulfilled life presupposes individuation. The majority of humanity, past and present, bears witness to the fact that it ain't necessarily so.

    I don’t think, although I’m very willing to learn otherwise that either “The West” or Christianity got to their present intellectual position as a result of outside pressure. AFAIK it was more as a result of intellectual evolution.

    I don’t think, either that the faithful won’t tell you from whence they learned whatever; they genuinely don’t know. Remember that song from South Pacific “You’ve got to be taught/before it’s late/to hate all the people your relatives hate” and so on.
    Re your last paragraph: I think we're saying the same thing in different ways!

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Speaking of Mr Reckless
    David Cameron had just finished cooking Saturday lunch when he first learnt of the Mark Reckless defection. His response was one of frustration, but not surprise. “He never saw Reckless as a team player”, said a Downing Street insider, in a masterful display of understatement.

    There has not been much understatement on display from Tory spokesmen since. Correctly, the decision was taken to tackle Reckless head on. Or if possible, take his head clean off his shoulders. “As your party Chairman, I share your deep sense of anger and betrayal,” Grant Shapps told Tory delegates as he formally opened the conference. “We have been let down by somebody who repeatedly lied to his constituents, and to you,” he said. Then, just in case they hadn’t quite got the message, he said it again. Their former colleague had “lied and lied and lied”.
    blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100288014/ukips-trying-to-wreck-conservative-party-conference-heres-how-david-cameron-can-rescue-it/
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Grandiose said:

    dr_spyn said:

    chestnut said:

    Number 5 on the BBC's most read articles today, "UK loses triple AAA credit rating" from 2013. The other day it was "double dip recession" from 2012.

    You might be inclined to think that the BBC website is being targeted by political activists to place political adverts. They simply drive traffic towards negative political stories and up they come on the BBC's front page.

    It also makes me wonder about the veracity of panel related/online polling findings if this kind of activity is going on.

    Must be some people with time on their hands.
    It wasn't just those, albeit to PBers they are the easiest to spot as out of date. There were others ("Why, oh why, does it keep raining?", 2012) and so it's almost certainly an algorithm malfunction. I believe they put in a filter that downvalued old stories anyway (because you wouldn't choose to browse the archive like that) and they must have removed it.
    Perhaps all those interns with English degrees don't understand algorithms.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    King Cole, yes and no. It's my understanding most of the Gastarbeiter went to Germany a while ago, whereas a lot of the immigration here from Pakistan is more recent. I know there are/were racial tensions in Germany (I did my GCSE coursework in the form of a Gastarbeiter's diary), but that seems predominantly economic in cause (ie they're taking our jobs etc) rather than social/cultural.

    Mr Dancer, that sounds absolutely fascinating and much more useful than the German O level I did. Very imaginative and woiuld allow for the development of language skills.

    However, how much Pakistani immigration is recent? I lived in Rochdale in the early 60’s and there were many, many such immigrants. I recall talking to a friend from Bradford several years later and he spoke of large areas being Pakistani then.
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    Patrick said:

    I think the problem for the blues is that the country as a whole has not yet accepted that we have an unsustainable welfare state. People think we should spend more on this or that (usually nurses). If you ask the man in the street what the real-world implications of running a 100bn deficit are you get a blank look. So the Labour party is in serious serious danger of winning the next election. That may be something they come to regret.

    I've been watching videos of some of the speeches from the UKIP Conference. (Ukipwebmaster youtube channel)
    I was a bit disappointed to see Suzanne Evans denouncing the 'bedroom tax'/spare room subsidy, and the notion of getting people off disability benefit.
    UKIP sliding to socialism? Shows how shambolic their policy formation is. VAT on luxury goods lasted 24 hours until Farage The Leader stepped in and killed it. Just as Farage 1984 style denied the last manifesto... The latest recruit believes in manifestos so Farage's dilatory approach to these will lead to a bust up with Carswell and Reckless. One of those inevitable car crashes.
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    I note the kippers have sacked off the handbag tax.

    This must be one of the fastest dumpings of a policy in political history.

    As I said at the time, and won the ire of the PB Kippers for, O'Flynn was unwise to cite items that are overwhelmingly purchased by women. I'm sure it wasn't intentional but it just gave fuel to the male golf club bore meme.

    My annual Sky Sports subscription costs more than twice that of a pair of shoes he wanted to tax, but I didn't see pricey live sports subs mentioned as a target.

    Funny old world.
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    AAMOI is anyone writing to the likes of Harman, Miliband etc asking them to confirm that they will be paying the mansion tax out of their own pocket? That they will not be reclaiming it through their HoC expenses, and that they will not be adding another allowance to their entitlement to offset the cost of paying it, but that they will pay it out of income like everyone else?

    The rationale, after all, is that if you live in a house worth more than £2 million, you are rich enough to pay £12k a year wealth tax on it. So all those Labour millionaires can by definition afford it too.

    It seems an obvious thing to do and if the answer's anything but Yes then we'll know it's a Hate Tax.
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    Morris

    I think the brown nosing deferential yacht-ist bullshit over the jubilee was what finally turned me against the monarchy.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    I note the kippers have sacked off the handbag tax.

    This must be one of the fastest dumpings of a policy in political history.

    As I said at the time, and won the ire of the PB Kippers for, O'Flynn was unwise to cite items that are overwhelmingly purchased by women. I'm sure it wasn't intentional but it just gave fuel to the male golf club bore meme.

    My annual Sky Sports subscription costs more than twice that of a pair of shoes he wanted to tax, but I didn't see pricey live sports subs mentioned as a target.

    Funny old world.

    It's ok BaJ you can now by a bag to go with your Jimmy Choos in total piece of mind.
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    DavidL said:

    If I have got this right then Labour is 5% up from June but only 4% up from where they were in 2010 meaning that in June they were 1% down on their GE score. Does anybody really believe this?

    The obvious solution is that their June 2014 poll was a rogue and that this poll has reverted to the norm. In the current poll compared to the GE the tories being down 7% puts them at the bottom of their current range nationally at 30% but with Labour up only 4 it puts them somewhat lower than their current average at 33%. It would also give a gap of 3 points which again is consistent with current polling.

    I remain to be convinced that anything very special is going on in the marginals.

    I was suspicious of the previous ComRes poll since it contradicted the much larger Ashcroft poll. But it's probably true that Labour is doing a better job of identifying and persuading switchers and tactical voters in marginals than the Tories, simply because we're doing a lot of doorstep canvassing and they are mostly not. What they're doing is lots of direct mails, but these don't really work in identifying swing votes (relatively few non-supporters actually reply to the surveys that DMs contain) and like by-election leaflets they have diminishing returns in terms of impact ("What's that letter? Oh, it's just political bumf again"). It's very hard to win an election without a ground game.

    So yes, the improvement since June is probably exagerrated by the last one being an outlier. But there's probably some further progress.
    I thought one of the 'revelations' of the Scottish vote, was that Labour don't have a ground game either.
    Scottish Labour don't, which isn't quite the same thing. Indeed London Labour appeared to have resources to spare.

    Of course they won't have that option in May 2015.

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    DavidL said:

    If I have got this right then Labour is 5% up from June but only 4% up from where they were in 2010 meaning that in June they were 1% down on their GE score. Does anybody really believe this?

    The obvious solution is that their June 2014 poll was a rogue and that this poll has reverted to the norm. In the current poll compared to the GE the tories being down 7% puts them at the bottom of their current range nationally at 30% but with Labour up only 4 it puts them somewhat lower than their current average at 33%. It would also give a gap of 3 points which again is consistent with current polling.

    I remain to be convinced that anything very special is going on in the marginals.

    ...But it's probably true that Labour is doing a better job of identifying and persuading switchers and tactical voters in marginals than the Tories, simply because we're doing a lot of doorstep canvassing and they are mostly not. What they're doing is lots of direct mails, but these don't really work in identifying swing votes (relatively few non-supporters actually reply to the surveys that DMs contain) and like by-election leaflets they have diminishing returns in terms of impact ("What's that letter? Oh, it's just political bumf again"). It's very hard to win an election without a ground game....
    In some marginals such as Nick's this is true, particularly where there is a sitting MP who prefers being a Minister to building up their base. Soubry is a goner. But in many other places as illustrated by Scotland, Labour's ground campaign has died and relies upon bursts of union activity at election time.
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    King Cole, indeed, I learnt all the useful German terms (a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle, for example, and a Peitsche is a whip, though I must confess I learnt the first term from playing Fear Effect in German).

    Alas, I've forgotten most of it. I wish my Game of Thrones DVDs had a German language option for the subtitles (they've got tons of less well-known languages, but not German).

    It's another problem with heavy voice-acting in videogames. Takes up much more space than largely text-based games, which appears to be the reason why differing language options have become less common. It's a shame, I really did learn more German playing Shadow Hearts: Covenant and other games auf Deutsch.

    It'd be great if Dragon Age: Inquisition had a German option but I'd be astounded if it were so.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    I note the kippers have sacked off the handbag tax.

    This must be one of the fastest dumpings of a policy in political history.

    As I said at the time, and won the ire of the PB Kippers for, O'Flynn was unwise to cite items that are overwhelmingly purchased by women. I'm sure it wasn't intentional but it just gave fuel to the male golf club bore meme.

    My annual Sky Sports subscription costs more than twice that of a pair of shoes he wanted to tax, but I didn't see pricey live sports subs mentioned as a target.

    Funny old world.

    It wasn't a policy, it was a proposal to look into something

    Your insight was incorrect as cars over 50k aren't overwhemingly purchased by women, so whether the idea was good or bad, your intervention was not on the money
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    Isam [8.58am] Quite. Most of the "faithful" - of any religion - couldn't tell you which practice is scriptural and which cultural, which idea they got from their present priest or imam or rabbi or whoever and which from their grandmother's knee. And they can't tell you because they don't want to, and they don't want to because doing so brings up a sense of fear.

    We are all - on this Forum - operating as Enlightened (or post-Enlightened) individuals, because to think outside that box brings up fear in us. We've been programmed to think that the fulfilled life presupposes individuation. The majority of humanity, past and present, bears witness to the fact that it ain't necessarily so.

    I don’t think, although I’m very willing to learn otherwise that either “The West” or Christianity got to their present intellectual position as a result of outside pressure. AFAIK it was more as a result of intellectual evolution.

    I don’t think, either that the faithful won’t tell you from whence they learned whatever; they genuinely don’t know. Remember that song from South Pacific “You’ve got to be taught/before it’s late/to hate all the people your relatives hate” and so on.
    Re your last paragraph: I think we're saying the same thing in different ways!

    If you mean a fear of the unknown, and an willingness to challenge onself, then I agree.
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    I note the kippers have sacked off the handbag tax.

    This must be one of the fastest dumpings of a policy in political history.

    As I said at the time, and won the ire of the PB Kippers for, O'Flynn was unwise to cite items that are overwhelmingly purchased by women. I'm sure it wasn't intentional but it just gave fuel to the male golf club bore meme.

    My annual Sky Sports subscription costs more than twice that of a pair of shoes he wanted to tax, but I didn't see pricey live sports subs mentioned as a target.

    Funny old world.

    It's ok BaJ you can now by a bag to go with your Jimmy Choos in total piece of mind.
    Ha ha. The aggregate value of my footwear would not come close sadly Alan ;-)
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    Do we think this pension tax is the last rabbit in George's top hat, or will he pull something else out this morning?

    I would guess something on IHT for "next Govt". But he does have a credibility problem on this unless he is able to blame the LDs for blocking change. Will he cross that rubicon and start to attack the coalition partner?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    I find it difficult to foresee a future for Islam in Europe, unless Islam changes dramatically, or Europe changes dramatically.

    SNIP


    SNIP
    You can't go telling millions of people that everything they.believe in is wrong and expect them to shrug their shoulders and say ok.

    What you're asking is for Muslims to stop being Muslims.

    That's not going to happen and why would it?

    It was the fundamental mistake of the people like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, the architects of multiculturalism. They thought that mass immigration was ok because the immigrants would be so happy to live in England, they would behave like English people culturally in time. For all their progressive views, this was very presumptious of them, a presumption possibly based on a feeling imperial superiority. When whole towns became predominantly Muslim, and they acted like Muslims living in England, even Jenkins rumbled that it wasn't going to work.

    You're trying to square a circle, well intentioned no doubt, but I don't think it is possible. It will carry on as it has been developing
    No, I'm not. I'm asking traditional Islam to be held to scrutiny so painfully that either it is forced to change, or that it causes people to switch to new, moderate forms of Islam that emerge. Religions do this all the time: Southern Baptism in the US emerged as its own denomination over its strident defence of slavery. Yet when slavery became politically unacceptable in the raucous abolitionism after the Civil War, it dropped this bit and continued on. It had to or face oblivion. Religions change all the time, while still pretending they are the originally pure form, in order to keep up with changes in public opinion. Go and read up on Reform Judaism as another example. We just need to up the pressure.
    Who are we to tell people what to believe in and how to act? The muslims whose views you want to change were encouraged to behave however they wanted in the belief that it would all be ok in a multicultural society, and the muslim population has grown this way of life has flourished

    Now the 2nd/3rd generation immigrants have never known any different. It is they who are militabnt, not their grandparents. How is it possible for anyone to tell them everything they know is wrong?

    It would take about 50 years for what you suggest to even begin to work, and that's if the will of the people you want to change could be gained, which I think is nigh on impossible.. its popular, and growing. Look at the amount of mosques and muslim centres that pop up

    The "Big MO" is with them in more ways than one!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is this improved reaction to opportunistic defectors a result of a change of direction or purely related to the duplicity of Mr Reckless or the possibility of winning the by election ?

    Ukip may have to be a bit more discerning in future.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    King Cole, indeed, I learnt all the useful German terms (a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle, for example, and a Peitsche is a whip, though I must confess I learnt the first term from playing Fear Effect in German).

    Alas, I've forgotten most of it. I wish my Game of Thrones DVDs had a German language option for the subtitles (they've got tons of less well-known languages, but not German).

    It's another problem with heavy voice-acting in videogames. Takes up much more space than largely text-based games, which appears to be the reason why differing language options have become less common. It's a shame, I really did learn more German playing Shadow Hearts: Covenant and other games auf Deutsch.

    It'd be great if Dragon Age: Inquisition had a German option but I'd be astounded if it were so.

    Sounds a great deal more fun than reading Emil und die Detektive. Bit childish, too for 15-16 year-olds.
    I’ve rarely used my German, although about 20 years ago I managed to discuss how and why we had been overcharged for cheese in a small Bavarian supermarket!
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    ISam

    You still fighting this battle? I have already said to you that 2/3 of the tax targets O'Flynn cited were overwhelmingly bought by women, a clear statement of fact that you heroically attempted to counter by pointing out that you yourself owned a £200 pair of shoes. Yet your purchase doesn't seem to have persuaded the newspapers, who subsequently dubbed it the Wag tax.

    As for it not being a policy, get real. O'Flynn floated it on his website - he is the economics spokesman - the truth is he had his policy crushed by Nige 24 hours later.

    You'll probably be rude now and call me a wally or something, shortly before having a dig at Mike for being aggressive.
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014
    A weekend is a long time in politics. Gut feel: Reckless is going to lose in my next door constituency.

    Interesting to go back and revisit some of last week's PB Tory triumphalism. Particluarly post Ed's admittedly rotten speech.

    Anyway, the good Lord Ashcroft is at last doling out some much needed realism to complacent Conservatives.

    Notwithstanding the raging rightwing splits over an issue like Europe which has little salience with most voters, I have observed that the Tories' achilles heel is the lack of internal criticism about their general standing and policy offering. And I'm afraid their press backers don't do them any favours.

    Where is the Tory Dan Hodges? I guess Peter Oborne gets close (and Oborne is incomprably superior to the word's worst pundit) but I can't think of anyone else off hand.

    As for this morning's risible tax break on pensions offering I have a new slogan for our Tory brethren:

    Vote Tory! With us you're better off when you're dead!

    At least it's truthful I suppose.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    Charles said:

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    That's the most interesting part to me.

    Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.

    Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.

    It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
    Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless

    If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
    Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    A weekend is a long time in politics. Gut feel: Reckless is going to lose in my next door constituency.

    Interesting to go back and revisit some of last week's PB Tory triumphalism. Particluarly post Ed's admittedly rotten speech.

    Anyway, the good Lord Ashcroft is at last doling out some much needed realism to complacent Conservatives.

    At least it's truthful I suppose.

    Certainly the numbers don't look good - its time for the Cons to be a bit bolder now the election campaign is under way. No need to be held back by the LDs anymore..

    I'll leave your trolling on the pensions tax cut for others to slaughter..
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @isam

    I'm not advocating telling them what to believe: I'm talking about bringing the disconnect of modern egalitarian values with their traditional teachings into sharper relief. Given the religion's teaching on women, I'm sure women could be particularly reached.

    Yes, I imagine it would take decades to work for it to affect the majority of the Muslim community in this country. In the short term we should restrict immigration from poor Muslim countries where we can to allow this process to happen. But what other choice do we have?
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    King Cole, schade, deine Kase war zuviel teuer.

    [Apologies for 'dein'. Whilst I was pretty good at conversational stuff my grammar was and remains atrocious. I suspect 'ihre' may be the polite form].
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    It's elicited the reaction from Tory activists that it was designed to. However, to the likes of Charles, what anyone else thinks is of no consequence.

    I'm sorry, but WTF?

    That's an incredibly offensive comment with absolutely no basis in reality.
    You do seem to take offence easily, Charles.

    In what way was your comment not offensive?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014
    Ok. I'm going to break out the tin-foil hat.

    From a couple of days before the Tory conference until now, the BBC most-read/most-shared list has been peppered with stories which paint the Tories in a bad light. Many of them are from years ago. Is there a coordinated gaming of the system? It's usually only one story at a time - today's is the 2013 report on losing the AAA rating. Over the weekend there was another on the double-dip recession from 2012, and a couple more I can't bring immediately to mind.

    As I say, that could be up there with UKIP questioning the recall of parliament, or Prince Philip being a lizard. I still think it looks suss.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    BenM said:

    A weekend is a long time in politics. Gut feel: Reckless is going to lose in my next door constituency.

    It looks as if Reckless could be in for a nasty surprise - I wonder if UKIP will give him a job when he loses his current one?

    And funny to see O'Flynn's handbag tax idea squashed like a bug. It really is the Farage Party; no-one else is allowed to steal Nigel's limelight.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited September 2014

    ISam

    You still fighting this battle? I have already said to you that 2/3 of the tax targets O'Flynn cited were overwhelmingly bought by women, a clear statement of fact that you heroically attempted to counter by pointing out that you yourself owned a £200 pair of shoes. Yet your purchase doesn't seem to have persuaded the newspapers, who subsequently dubbed it the Wag tax.

    As for it not being a policy, get real. O'Flynn floated it on his website - he is the economics spokesman - the truth is he had his policy crushed by Nige 24 hours later.

    You'll probably be rude now and call me a wally or something, shortly before having a dig at Mike for being aggressive.

    I am not fighting any battle, I was happy to leave it forever, but you have brought it up again, despite saying you were going to leave it

    You originally backed your point up by pointing out how many pairs of shoes your wife has, so its very stupid to try win the argument by accusing me of anecdote... & citing the Daily Mail.. lovely touch that!

    O Flynn floated an idea that hasn't been taken up, that's the truth. So what?

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    edited September 2014

    King Cole, schade, deine Kase war zuviel teuer.

    [Apologies for 'dein'. Whilst I was pretty good at conversational stuff my grammar was and remains atrocious. I suspect 'ihre' may be the polite form].

    I said something like that as I recall.

    Oddly, as time has gone on I suspect that Spanish might have been of more practical use. We had the option at my school from the second form onwards; German or Spanish and I seem to recall my father being against me studying the language of Franco!

    What our conversation does suggest is that educational techniques in your time were much better than in the allegedly halcyon educational 50’s!
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Morris

    I think the brown nosing deferential yacht-ist bullshit over the jubilee was what finally turned me against the monarchy.

    Bit harsh to judge them by their brown-nosers?

    It was the Prince Charles - Jimmy Saville correspondence which did it for me.

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    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    How dare you! The Emperor's tailor is a genius!
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
    Because one is a legitimate vote, the other is the opinion of a few ponytails sending out clickable links for mugs to fill in on the off chance of a £50 cheque after 10 years of completing surveys..
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Has there ever been a tax cut you didn't hate Ben ?
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    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Well, general elections count for more than opinion polls - just ask the SDP how much opinion polls are worth.

    At the last general election the Lib Dems received more than seven votes for each UKIP vote. If that changes - as most people now expect - then the reporting language will also change.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
  • Options
    Another reheated rehash of a previously announced policy from Osborne tells us just how desperate and short of ideas the Tories are.
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-2701189/Government-plans-reduce-55-death-tax-pension-pots.html
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    murali_s said:

    Charles said:

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    That's the most interesting part to me.

    Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.

    Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.

    It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
    Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless

    If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
    Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
    Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014
    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
    Does anyone really care though? It's not going to shift any votes.

    Plus more tax cuts for the rich.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321

    King Cole, indeed, I learnt all the useful German terms (a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle, for example, and a Peitsche is a whip, though I must confess I learnt the first term from playing Fear Effect in German).

    Alas, I've forgotten most of it. I wish my Game of Thrones DVDs had a German language option for the subtitles (they've got tons of less well-known languages, but not German).

    It's another problem with heavy voice-acting in videogames. Takes up much more space than largely text-based games, which appears to be the reason why differing language options have become less common. It's a shame, I really did learn more German playing Shadow Hearts: Covenant and other games auf Deutsch.

    It'd be great if Dragon Age: Inquisition had a German option but I'd be astounded if it were so.

    Subtitles are great for learning a language. I learned Danish primarily by watching BBC dramas like the Forsyte Saga on Danish TV with subtititles - you just couldn't help picking up the (written) language without trying.

    That said, there are a lot of rules that subtitlers have to follow - the obvious one being that the subtitle has to go away when the scene changes and mustn't take up half the screen. Paraphrasing is an art. Some subtitlers go further and try to localise the original according to the culture of the target audience - a notorious example being the first series of The Killing, in which detectives mildly saying "Damn" were subtitled as saying "Fuck!" because the subtitler believed that British audiences wouldn't believe in mild-spoken detectives.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Removal of the green taxes, and subsidies for wind farmers would be even more popular than headlines on pension pots.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Charles said:

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    That's the most interesting part to me.

    Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.

    Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.

    It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell · 3h
    "Mr Cameron launched a highly personal attack on ... Douglas Carswell" apparently. A pity. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11127157/I-could-campaign-to-leave-the-EU-warns-David-Cameron.html

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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
    Eh. I mean, the "one poll that counts" line is totally silly, but on the other hand I feel like it'd be problematic if we started treating opinion polls as the basis for how we consider parties, for questions like who should be represented at debates. They're completely privately run in private interests, and they have the potential to be wildly inaccurate. Maybe the methodology has improved enough that we'll never have another 1992, but I'm not sure we can say that with certainty. What happened with Yougov's Yes independence poll already alarmed me somewhat about the power these polls can have, I wouldn't want it increased further.

    Having said that, of course it would also be silly to ignore that- barring some huge, totally unexpected discrepancy between the polling and reality- UKIP does seem to be enjoying much wider support than the Liberal Democrats at the moment, and it'd be ridiculous for us to all ignore that obvious truth until May 2015.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    murali_s said:

    Charles said:

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    That's the most interesting part to me.

    Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.

    Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.

    It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
    Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless

    If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
    Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
    Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
    I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
    Does anyone really care though? It's not going to shift any votes.
    I think a lot of people care. I think you are underestimating the potential for it to shift votes. We're, what, 6 months down the road and Labour still hasnt formulated a coherent response to it (though they darent attack it). Prospects of a Labour government reversing these changes must be close to zero.
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    I don't see why so many people are amazed that fifth columnists have taken their quintocolumnar activities to their logical conclusion when the timing seemed opportune.

    The UKIP complaints last week about the recall of Parliament being intended to overshadow their conference seeem quite a while ago now, mind.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    King Cole, indeed, I learnt all the useful German terms (a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle, for example, and a Peitsche is a whip, though I must confess I learnt the first term from playing Fear Effect in German).

    Alas, I've forgotten most of it. I wish my Game of Thrones DVDs had a German language option for the subtitles (they've got tons of less well-known languages, but not German).

    It's another problem with heavy voice-acting in videogames. Takes up much more space than largely text-based games, which appears to be the reason why differing language options have become less common. It's a shame, I really did learn more German playing Shadow Hearts: Covenant and other games auf Deutsch.

    It'd be great if Dragon Age: Inquisition had a German option but I'd be astounded if it were so.

    Subtitles are great for learning a language. I learned Danish primarily by watching BBC dramas like the Forsyte Saga on Danish TV with subtititles - you just couldn't help picking up the (written) language without trying.

    That said, there are a lot of rules that subtitlers have to follow - the obvious one being that the subtitle has to go away when the scene changes and mustn't take up half the screen. Paraphrasing is an art. Some subtitlers go further and try to localise the original according to the culture of the target audience - a notorious example being the first series of The Killing, in which detectives mildly saying "Damn" were subtitled as saying "Fuck!" because the subtitler believed that British audiences wouldn't believe in mild-spoken detectives.
    Watched Les Miserables in Bangkok. Dialogue was in English with Thai subtitles. Did nothing for my understanding of Thai!

    Very interesting cinema experience though. Seats were in pairs, and, since it was heavily air-conditioned one was provided with a blanket. The couple in the next seats had a bottle of wine brought in at one stage, too!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    edited September 2014
    Mr. Palmer, been re-watching some Scrubs DVDs with German subtitles, and although I can only recall 'Verdammt' off the top of my head there are several translations used for 'Damn it'.

    Also worth considering some terms translate easily from one language to another, and some things really don't (puns must be very tricky).

    Edited extra bit: King Cole, that's quite weird. I saw Les Miserables in Shanghai, with Chinese subtitles (after a long flight, I had no bloody idea what was going on).
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    It's elicited the reaction from Tory activists that it was designed to. However, to the likes of Charles, what anyone else thinks is of no consequence.

    I'm sorry, but WTF?

    That's an incredibly offensive comment with absolutely no basis in reality.
    You do seem to take offence easily, Charles.

    In what way was your comment not offensive?
    In this way. I didn't give offence. You took it.

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    dr_spyn said:

    Removal of the green taxes, and subsidies for wind farmers would be even more popular than headlines on pension pots.

    From the Sunday Times YouGov.

    Percentage of the voting age population who are aged 60+ = ~30%
    Percentage of current Conservative voters who are aged 60+ = ~40%

    They know who their core vote is.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=22501&p=0

    Breakdown of referendum counts in Glasgow on a constituency by constituency basis for those wondering how bad it might be for Labour.

    It really is a straight poorer-the-area-higher-the-Yes-vote breakdown.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    dr_spyn said:

    Removal of the green taxes, and subsidies for wind farmers would be even more popular than headlines on pension pots.

    Polling evidence?

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    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
    Eh. I mean, the "one poll that counts" line is totally silly, but on the other hand I feel like it'd be problematic if we started treating opinion polls as the basis for how we consider parties, for questions like who should be represented at debates. They're completely privately run in private interests, and they have the potential to be wildly inaccurate. Maybe the methodology has improved enough that we'll never have another 1992, but I'm not sure we can say that with certainty. What happened with Yougov's Yes independence poll already alarmed me somewhat about the power these polls can have, I wouldn't want it increased further.

    Having said that, of course it would also be silly to ignore that- barring some huge, totally unexpected discrepancy between the polling and reality- UKIP does seem to be enjoying much wider support than the Liberal Democrats at the moment, and it'd be ridiculous for us to all ignore that obvious truth until May 2015.
    Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the powers that be to use their judgement, and to be impartial in that judgement, rather than adhere to inflexible rules that are obviously producing the wrong answer here.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited September 2014

    dr_spyn said:

    Removal of the green taxes, and subsidies for wind farmers would be even more popular than headlines on pension pots.

    From the Sunday Times YouGov.

    Percentage of the voting age population who are aged 60+ = ~30%
    Percentage of current Conservative voters who are aged 60+ = ~40%

    They know who their core vote is.
    The changes dont affect people who have already used their pension pots to secure their retirement income. It's mainly those in their 50s and younger who will be impacted.

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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    isam said:

    murali_s said:

    Charles said:

    This Tory MP speaks for the whole party.

    @jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    That's the most interesting part to me.

    Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.

    Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.

    It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
    Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless

    If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
    Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
    Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
    I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?

    You're probably into four-digit odds for that. My money would be on Nigel Mills (Amber Valley) to defect
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    Ok. I'm going to break out the tin-foil hat.

    From a couple of days before the Tory conference until now, the BBC most-read/most-shared list has been peppered with stories which paint the Tories in a bad light. *snip*

    Ah - I see Chestnut got there before me. I am at least vindicated as not being mad.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    edited September 2014
    I suspect Mr Dancer, one should never try humour in a language or a culture one doesn’t understand fully. Fallen into that trap a couple of times.

    Not sure I could cope with a film like Les Mis after a long flight, either!
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
    Eh. I mean, the "one poll that counts" line is totally silly, but on the other hand I feel like it'd be problematic if we started treating opinion polls as the basis for how we consider parties, for questions like who should be represented at debates. They're completely privately run in private interests, and they have the potential to be wildly inaccurate. Maybe the methodology has improved enough that we'll never have another 1992, but I'm not sure we can say that with certainty. What happened with Yougov's Yes independence poll already alarmed me somewhat about the power these polls can have, I wouldn't want it increased further.

    Having said that, of course it would also be silly to ignore that- barring some huge, totally unexpected discrepancy between the polling and reality- UKIP does seem to be enjoying much wider support than the Liberal Democrats at the moment, and it'd be ridiculous for us to all ignore that obvious truth until May 2015.
    Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the powers that be to use their judgement, and to be impartial in that judgement, rather than adhere to inflexible rules that are obviously producing the wrong answer here.
    Is your judgement that the outcome is the wrong one an impartial one?
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    Hong Kong is looking horribly exposed today. It's hard to see how things can end well. When I was there earlier this year and again earlier this month it was clear that levels of dissatisfaction with Beijing were growing; as I remarked at the time our rule there was being completely - and much more positively - reappraised. The one thing that may stop a really savage crackdown over there is just how important a financial centre HK is. The Chinese will not want to spook investors, so they may be careful about how they react.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

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    King Cole, generally agree, though I did use a poisson/poison comparison for a fish badly cooked by a Felarian [French in fantasyland] in one book.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    http://www.ukipdaily.com/reading-head-lines/

    Mark Reckless and the remarks pertaining to Cameron.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the powers that be to use their judgement, and to be impartial in that judgement, rather than adhere to inflexible rules that are obviously producing the wrong answer here.

    Well yes, but "Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the powers that be to use their judgement, and to be impartial in that judgement," is also what you might say about being ruled by a benign, competent dictator-for-life. It sure would be nice if we could do away with all the pesky, imperfect processes that we've found necessary to ensure impartial representation, but that doesn't mean it's a real prospect.
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    Isam- fair enough. I'll leave it.

    I'm bored with the tax now anyway!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?

    Count the MPs...

    There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
    Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
    Eh. I mean, the "one poll that counts" line is totally silly, but on the other hand I feel like it'd be problematic if we started treating opinion polls as the basis for how we consider parties, for questions like who should be represented at debates. They're completely privately run in private interests, and they have the potential to be wildly inaccurate. Maybe the methodology has improved enough that we'll never have another 1992, but I'm not sure we can say that with certainty. What happened with Yougov's Yes independence poll already alarmed me somewhat about the power these polls can have, I wouldn't want it increased further.

    Having said that, of course it would also be silly to ignore that- barring some huge, totally unexpected discrepancy between the polling and reality- UKIP does seem to be enjoying much wider support than the Liberal Democrats at the moment, and it'd be ridiculous for us to all ignore that obvious truth until May 2015.
    Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the powers that be to use their judgement, and to be impartial in that judgement, rather than adhere to inflexible rules that are obviously producing the wrong answer here.
    Is your judgement that the outcome is the wrong one an impartial one?
    Yes it is. I am being honest, if it were the Greens or Respect in UKIPs position I would say exactly the same

    What relevance is 2010 when it comes to 2015? If Labour had split into three parties "Old Labour" "New Labour" and "Labour", and they were all on 12% all likely to win 90 seats each, would it be fair if only "Labour" was classified as a major party?

    It's crazy to be so rigid as to base it on seats in 2010 with no leeeway
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    Mr. Isam, hundreds of Britons joined ISIS prior to the air strikes. Britons were captured and beheaded prior to the air strikes. Personally, I don't form my view based on the propaganda of ISIS, and whilst we should consider what ex-fighters say, we should also consider they were mad enough to join the psychopathic lunatics in the first place and perhaps don't have the most sensible of heads on their shoulders.

    Mr. Observer, indeed. I do think China will win, but if the Hong Kong people don't take it laying down the Chinese may have to make the difficult choice of seriously damaging Hong Kong's wealth and attractiveness to investors or conceding some ground as a compromise.

    King Cole, it was a play, but your point's still entirely valid.
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    I long for the day Neil comments on his own party's economic policies rather than those of the Labour and Tory parties...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited September 2014
    "Writing in the Telegraph on Monday, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, will urge Conservative backbenchers not to defect and to fight for a Tory victory at next year’s election. However, MPs warned on Sunday that as many as six more backbenchers could be planning on joining Ukip in the coming months. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11127157/I-could-campaign-to-leave-the-EU-warns-David-Cameron.html
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Has there ever been a tax cut you didn't hate Ben ?
    Gordon Brown's 10p?

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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
    Does anyone really care though? It's not going to shift any votes.
    I think a lot of people care. I think you are underestimating the potential for it to shift votes. We're, what, 6 months down the road and Labour still hasnt formulated a coherent response to it (though they darent attack it). Prospects of a Labour government reversing these changes must be close to zero.
    I've never heard a single complaint about the tax treatment of one's pension pot when your dead.

    Not one.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

    UKIP will run around shouting and waving their arms.

    It's a war there will be casualties, it's what happens.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    edited September 2014
    It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.
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    Interesting piece on Hong Kong here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29400349

    Found the reminder of Xi Jinping's crackdown on corruption and significant intra-party enemies most significant. If he backs down that could weaken him, and a move against him is perhaps possible.
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    It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.

    If it's true that there's another defection coming then a Con win against Reckless just moves the spotlight to the next by-election, and that one is the death match.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

    What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?

    Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?

    Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
    Does anyone really care though? It's not going to shift any votes.
    I think a lot of people care. I think you are underestimating the potential for it to shift votes. We're, what, 6 months down the road and Labour still hasnt formulated a coherent response to it (though they darent attack it). Prospects of a Labour government reversing these changes must be close to zero.
    I've never heard a single complaint about the tax treatment of one's pension pot when your dead.

    Not one.
    We obviously move in different circles. But this is not just about the treatment of these pots on death. It's a consequence of the removal of the requirement to annuitise.

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

    UKIP will run around shouting and waving their arms.

    It's a war there will be casualties, it's what happens.
    I think UKIP's main objection is that the French (I mean, the bloody French) were up for the fight before the Brits.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.

    If Lab win Tories will say that vote UKIP get Ed is justified. UKIP will say it shows Tories hate them more than Labour.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Neil said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Quite popular though, isnt it?
    Does anyone really care though? It's not going to shift any votes.
    I think a lot of people care. I think you are underestimating the potential for it to shift votes. We're, what, 6 months down the road and Labour still hasnt formulated a coherent response to it (though they darent attack it). Prospects of a Labour government reversing these changes must be close to zero.
    I've never heard a single complaint about the tax treatment of one's pension pot when your dead.

    Not one.
    Who can forget tim being outraged that Lord Goldsmith wasn't paying IHT whilst lying 6 feet under - dreadful Tory corpse laughing in our faces.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

    'What if, what if, what if' - the cowards motto.

    The Tornados are flying at 10,000 feet, they've got a pretty good chance. They're warplanes after all, with physical and electronic counter measures to deal with any threat.

    The first ISIS SAM battery that 'lights up' a coalition aircraft is going to have an extremely short but very exciting war - a lifespan measured in the time it takes a HARM missile to travel from aircraft A to radar B.
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    chestnut said:

    Number 5 on the BBC's most read articles today, "UK loses triple AAA credit rating" from 2013. The other day it was "double dip recession" from 2012.

    You might be inclined to think that the BBC website is being targeted by political activists to place political adverts. They simply drive traffic towards negative political stories and up they come on the BBC's front page.

    It also makes me wonder about the veracity of panel related/online polling findings if this kind of activity is going on.

    It may not be deliberate targeting, but it's a nuisance when you're doing a quick scan for news, see what looks like an interesting story, and then find it's something from years ago. Why on earth does the Beeb not filter out old stories from the list?
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014

    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Osborne's pension tax gambit is utter drivel.

    Has there ever been a tax cut you didn't hate Ben ?
    Gordon Brown's 10p?

    Good question.

    Tax 'cuts' I've hated (off the top of my head):

    Top rate tax cut from 50p to 45p
    Revenue losing corporation tax cuts from 33p base under both parties.
    Darling's panicked tinkering with IHT after the election that never was
    Brown's myopic Capital Gains tax cut to 18% (well done Osborne for raising it again).

    Each of those tax cuts increase inequality, direct wealth from the poorest to the richest, and has at best zero beneficial impact on the economy.

    To balance I've liked:

    raising the personal allowance to £10k
    Brown's 10p starting rate (at the time and superceded by the above)
    Basic rate income tax tax cuts to 20p.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    TGOHF said:

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Former IS fighter on Sky News saying the air strikes are encouraging people to join

    They've made 4 miles in -2 mins! But you get the gist


    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline · 1h
    ISIS militants 'just one mile from Baghdad' despite Western airstrikes http://dailym.ai/1taryhF

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 58m
    BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...

    What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.

    What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?

    Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?

    Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
    Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!

    Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,729

    It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.

    If it's true that there's another defection coming then a Con win against Reckless just moves the spotlight to the next by-election, and that one is the death match.
    I was thinking about that in terms of timing - when are the Tories going to move the writ for Rochester - do they wait to see if anyone else defects and then go for them at the same time, or do UKIP wait until after the Tories have moved the writ to announce another defection?
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This discussion has been closed.