Has there ever been a tax cut you didn't hate Ben ?
Gordon Brown's 10p?
Good question.
Tax 'cuts' I've hated:
Top rate tax cut from 50p to 45p Revenue losing corporation tax cuts from 33p base under both parties. Darling's panicked tinkering with IHT after the election that never was Brown's myopic Capital Gains tax cut to 18% (well done Osborne for raising it again).
Each of those tax cuts increase inequality, direct wealth from the poorest to the richest, and has at best zero beneficial impact on the economy.
To balance I've liked:
raising the personal allowance to £10k Brown's 10p starting rate (at the time and superceded by the above) Basic rate income tax tax cuts to 20p.
There will come a time though that raising the personal allowance won't benefit the very lowest paid as they will go from paying no tax to still paying no tax.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
Found the reminder of Xi Jinping's crackdown on corruption and significant intra-party enemies most significant. If he backs down that could weaken him, and a move against him is perhaps possible.
There is no way that Xi can back down or that the PRC can allow itself to be seen as a loser. But HK is also a very important Chinese asset and they are not going to want to do anything that may cause people and institutions to move elsewhere. What may help Beijing is that there are a lot of mainlanders now in Hong Kong whose first loyalty is to Beijing and that money matters most to almost everyone. I just spoke to someone in our office over there - which is in Wanchai, next to Central - and he said that things are actually not as bad as you might think from the reports, though the whiff of tear gas is everywhere.
It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.
If Lab win Tories will say that vote UKIP get Ed is justified. UKIP will say it shows Tories hate them more than Labour.
Clearly the Tories do hate UKIP more that Labour. It's apparent from postings on here and it's apparent at Cameron joking about taking pleasure in pushing Farage off the pier. The fact that several posters have said they would rather have a coalition with left-wing parties than UKIP shows how crazy it all is. They would get many, many more of their own policies enacted with a UKIP coalition, but they put their own spite at not being entitled to right-wing votes unchallenged ahead of sensible governing preferences. Heck, if Cameron offered UKIP a free run at a dozen or so seats so they would stand down in the rest Farage would probably take it, and Cameron would be guaranteed to stay on as PM. But he'd rather see Ed Miliband in Number 10 than do a deal with a right wing party.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
UKIP will run around shouting and waving their arms.
It's a war there will be casualties, it's what happens.
It's an utterly fake war. Our six planes are simply props. If there are any casualties in this mess it will be a travesty.
It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.
When Carswell defected to UKIP the suggestion was made that if he held onto his seat in the by-election it would encourage other MPs to follow suit, so it's interesting that Reckless has done so before the Clacton by-election.
Assuming that Carswell holds onto Clacton then it's entirely possible that win will still encourage subsequent defections, keeping the UKIP bandwagon rolling before the by-election in Rochester & Strood.
Interestingly, the looking at the Wikipedia polling graph it appears that UKIP have recovered the ground lost in the opinion polls in their post-election "slump", and are now close to their highest level of opinion poll support.
By the end of the year, with a couple of newly elected MPs in the Commons and another defection or two, and UKIP could expect to reach new heights.
The Lib Dem share could be closer to 5% than 10%. This compares with 7.5% in 1970... What chance of UKIP ending up with more seats than the Lib Dems in the 2015GE?
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
So if you have a final salary pension this won't be of any use ?
Presumably not, but since they get a massively better deal* anyway, that is fair enough.
* One example: The lifetime allowance is calculated on the assumption that a final salary scheme is worth 20 time the initial annual pension - without taking account of inflation-linking. In other words, it is based on the cloud-cuckoo-land assumption that you can buy an inflation-linked annuity at 5%. Great news for highly-paid civil servants, who can get a pension worth roughly 50% more than their private-sector equivalents without being penalised by the taxman.
Has there ever been a tax cut you didn't hate Ben ?
Gordon Brown's 10p?
Good question.
Tax 'cuts' I've hated:
Top rate tax cut from 50p to 45p Revenue losing corporation tax cuts from 33p base under both parties. Darling's panicked tinkering with IHT after the election that never was Brown's myopic Capital Gains tax cut to 18% (well done Osborne for raising it again).
Each of those tax cuts increase inequality, direct wealth from the poorest to the richest, and has at best zero beneficial impact on the economy.
To balance I've liked:
raising the personal allowance to £10k Brown's 10p starting rate (at the time and superceded by the above) Basic rate income tax tax cuts to 20p.
There will come a time though that raising the personal allowance won't benefit the very lowest paid as they will go from paying no tax to still paying no tax.
We're still a way off it for full time employees. 40 hours a week at minimum wage is £13,125 a year. It will be £16640 with an £8 minimum wage.
Either way it pays the Tories to pour as many resources as possible into the R & S by-election (and indeed any subsequent defector led by-elections). Even if they can't defeat Ukip outright if they can achieve a fairly even split of the vote on the right this could well let Lab in by the back door which is almost as good for them strategically for the forthcoming GE as Cons actually defeating Reckless.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
I note you didn't proffer any policy.
The floor is yours.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
The British hostages are more likely to die as a result of our air strikes than they were before, and plenty of innocent Iraqis will die also.
@Richard_Nabavi The official Tory website deleted the links to "old news" of Cameron's speeches, so the SPADs, reporters, and political geeks, have to try other sources. (of course, as they all tend to think alike, they tend to search the same places). Everyone is revising what Dave said before, and what he will say during his speech.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
UKIP drift in Rochester and Strood and Heywood and Middleton
8/11 and 15/2 on Betfair (midpoint)
The Reckless by election looks like being the closest of the parliament doesn't it? Only Eastleigh comes close
Quite exciting, like your team getting to a cup final against a big rival
What makes it even more interesting is that Labour aren't totally out of it, and could conceivably win too - what will be fascinating is if they make a genuine attempt at it, or if they leave it to the Tories and UKIP to battle it out. It's an interesting dilemma for them as to how they approach it.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
I note you didn't proffer any policy.
The floor is yours.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
The British hostages are more likely to die as a result of our air strikes than they were before, and plenty of innocent Iraqis will die also.
I have no answer other than as the conservatives make HMRC more powerful and unaccountable, this organisation will try it on more and more with people who have very limited resources to fight back.
What do conservatives do when they are faced with a deficit? Do they cut spending to what we can afford? No.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
How interesting. I love subtitles and brushed up my terrible French watching Engrenages.
The funniest use of deliberately different subtitles is in Kung Fu Hustle. It's dubbed from the Chinese into English - and has subtitles that often say something quite different. It's hilarious.
King Cole, indeed, I learnt all the useful German terms (a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle, for example, and a Peitsche is a whip, though I must confess I learnt the first term from playing Fear Effect in German).
Alas, I've forgotten most of it. I wish my Game of Thrones DVDs had a German language option for the subtitles (they've got tons of less well-known languages, but not German).
It's another problem with heavy voice-acting in videogames. Takes up much more space than largely text-based games, which appears to be the reason why differing language options have become less common. It's a shame, I really did learn more German playing Shadow Hearts: Covenant and other games auf Deutsch.
It'd be great if Dragon Age: Inquisition had a German option but I'd be astounded if it were so.
Subtitles are great for learning a language. I learned Danish primarily by watching BBC dramas like the Forsyte Saga on Danish TV with subtititles - you just couldn't help picking up the (written) language without trying.
That said, there are a lot of rules that subtitlers have to follow - the obvious one being that the subtitle has to go away when the scene changes and mustn't take up half the screen. Paraphrasing is an art. Some subtitlers go further and try to localise the original according to the culture of the target audience - a notorious example being the first series of The Killing, in which detectives mildly saying "Damn" were subtitled as saying "Fuck!" because the subtitler believed that British audiences wouldn't believe in mild-spoken detectives.
On topic, if the UKIP are on triple the support that the Liberal Democrats are, how on Earth can the latter be considered a "major party" and the former a "minor party"?
Count the MPs...
There is only one "poll" that counts - if the Kippers can get double figures of MPs then they will qualify as a major party for 2020.
Why should a party's support from five years ago count for more than its current level? It's clearly an absurd system and I struggled to see how anyone could believe in it. But after the reaction to the Carswell defection, it's now pretty clear the Tories are completely self-serving in the views they choose to hold: whichever ones insult UKIP. It's very transparent.
Eh. I mean, the "one poll that counts" line is totally silly, but on the other hand I feel like it'd be problematic if we started treating opinion polls as the basis for how we consider parties, for questions like who should be represented at debates. They're completely privately run in private interests, and they have the potential to be wildly inaccurate. Maybe the methodology has improved enough that we'll never have another 1992, but I'm not sure we can say that with certainty. What happened with Yougov's Yes independence poll already alarmed me somewhat about the power these polls can have, I wouldn't want it increased further.
Having said that, of course it would also be silly to ignore that- barring some huge, totally unexpected discrepancy between the polling and reality- UKIP does seem to be enjoying much wider support than the Liberal Democrats at the moment, and it'd be ridiculous for us to all ignore that obvious truth until May 2015.
Then use an average of all those that have meet British polling council methodology. That should filter out the dodgy ones and also not not be moved too much by outliers.
It would appear that the forthcoming Rochester & Strood is becoming a death match between the Conservatives and UKIP. Either party winning will provide a large bonus. C's will be remotivated and on the up with little chance of further defections. UKIP's balloon will be punctured. On the other hand if UKIP win the C's will then have lost the general election. Not sure what are the implications if L win.
If it's true that there's another defection coming then a Con win against Reckless just moves the spotlight to the next by-election, and that one is the death match.
I was thinking about that in terms of timing - when are the Tories going to move the writ for Rochester - do they wait to see if anyone else defects and then go for them at the same time, or do UKIP wait until after the Tories have moved the writ to announce another defection?
How many defections do UKIP need to keep this dripping away until the general election?
Carswell defected on August 28th, Reckless on September 27th - so that's one defection every 30 days. The general election is about 210 days away, but UKIP won't need a defection lined up for the end of February, just before the general election campaign starts, so they would need another four defections lined up to keep this going.
If they really have that lined up then it would be amazing.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
I suggest: -Exerting strong diplomatic pressure on Saudi Arabia and Qatar to cease funding for ISIS -Exerting strong diplomatic pressure on Turkey to close its border to militants. RIDICULOUS this is still open to replenish ISIS' ranks even as we're supposedly attacking them -Stopping Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey from training further savage militants in their attempt to unseat the Assad regime -Accepting that the Assad regime is here to stay, and that another Libya is not a desirable situation, and arming the SAA to eliminate ISIS
But that would be what we were doing if the aim were to defeat ISIS. What we're actually doing is using the ISIS threat as a pretext for the removal of the Assad regime.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
It gets them beheaded quicker. Takes the waiting out of it.
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
What's your tax code? Have you changed jobs in the last two tax years?
I used to work in self-assessment at what was then the Inland Revenue, so if you message me through vanilla I can see if I can work it out.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
In the past a friend of mine (a very decent and sophisticated guy) voted BNP - he lived in Tower Hamlets (this was 15? years ago). Turned out - and I believe him - that they were racists: he was voting against the corrupt Labour administration and there wasn't anyone else serious to vote for.
No shit! I don't think your mate could have been that sophisticated if that came as a post vote revelation to him.
He's sophisticated - but just zero interest in politics (what I meant to write was he didn't realise they were racist & when olf him he said he'd never vote for them again)
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
I agree with Fraser Nelson - Osborne was FAR too complacent about SINDYREF on R4:
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
I note you didn't proffer any policy.
The floor is yours.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
The British hostages are more likely to die as a result of our air strikes than they were before, and plenty of innocent Iraqis will die also.
'The sit on your hands, and do nothing' policy.
Given the opportunity, do you think ISIS would -
a. Respect you.
or
b. Chop your head off anyway for being a coward.
I am not 100% sure what is for the best... I am surprised so many are
I cant get into one upmanship point scoring arguments all day every day...if you think we should go to war fair enough, I am just saying Im not convinced
I could have just ignored your question, but tried to answer honestly. Maybe I will be proved to be wrong, it happens
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
Where, the Golan Heights as Peacekeepers? The UN mission there has been running since the 1970's - nothing to do with the current conflict.
It's an interesting dilemma for them as to how they approach it.
I dont see the dilemma - why wouldnt they try to win it?
I was thinking that there is a an element of Labour that would prefer UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose, and so might well soft-peddle. (On the grounds that UKIP hurts the Tories more than they hurt Labour, and it's a relative game)
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
Incidentally, how long have you been living in the UK?
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
I'll let them know you're happy to take their place.
So if a married couple go on a night out with friends, and the husband is the designated driver, he shouldn't sleep with his wife that night, lest it be rape?
I agree with Fraser Nelson - Osborne was FAR too complacent about SINDYREF on R4:
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
So if a married couple go on a night out with friends, and the husband is the designated driver, he shouldn't sleep with his wife that night, lest it be rape?
I agree with Fraser Nelson - Osborne was FAR too complacent about SINDYREF on R4:
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
1) When it comes to considering whether military action, I start from the approach that is supposedly in the Hippocratic Oath - first, do no harm.
2) We (I'll come back to who "we" are in a moment) should only act where our actions can be expected to make a positive difference and there is an urgent need for action.
3) We should have a clear aim for our actions that can be simply stated at the outset.
4) For this last reason in particular, I was in favour of us taking military action in Libya (though that hasn't worked out particularly well, given the state of affairs when we acted, it still seems to me that it was the correct decision at the time) and against intervening last year in Syria.
5) What are our aims now? In truth, we're not intervening to stop the current hostages being beheaded - that would be a bonus but it's beyond our control. Nor are we intervening directly to destroy ISIL - that requires ground troops and we're not putting any ground troops in. It seems, though it has not been well-articulated, that we are trying to contain ISIL and put in place conditions for local/regional forces to finish them off. Though it's unclear exactly who, since we apparently don't want to help President Assad and we don't want to build up Iran's influence.
6) This is not particularly the British government's fault. The problem is fuzzy thinking by Barack Obama's administration.
7) Our (yes, I'll come back to that) intervention in Iraq/Syria seems unlikely to improve matters. In a perfect world, we'd have a better plan. And yes, we'd probably be either staying out completely or putting our own ground troops in.
8) So who is "we"? For this purpose, the western democracies can be lumped together. If we were able, we should be seeking to get a much more coherent strategy in place. This is primarily a US failure, of course.
9) In the imperfect world that we live in, should Britain be standing on the sidelines or participating in a poorly planned campaign that is unlikely to improve matters? It seems to me that Britain should be seeking to make the best of a bad job, to improve a poor campaign that is going to happen anyway by maximising its chances of success.
So reluctantly I'm in favour of this intervention by Britain. But I don't feel at all good about it.
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
I agree with Fraser Nelson - Osborne was FAR too complacent about SINDYREF on R4:
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Anybody that goes to these countries and gives the nutjobs a chance to kidnap them has to be pretty stupid or needs to get on with it if they do get kidnapped. Not for us to worry about headcases that want to go and take chances like that. They should stay at home.
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Yes - displays a certain simplicity of (not to say simplistic) analysis.....Its a bit more complicated than 'we won, they lost.....'
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 6m Peter Kellner: "Earlier this year I thought Ukip would probably win no seats next year. I can now envisage them winning up to ten" #cpc14
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
I note you didn't proffer any policy.
The floor is yours.
I can't speak for UKIP's policy but I do think that half-heartedly going to war with no plan on how to win it or even what the end game looks like is plain bloody stupid.
So if a married couple go on a night out with friends, and the husband is the designated driver, he shouldn't sleep with his wife that night, lest it be rape?
"(4) A policy that, in the evaluation of complaints in the disciplinary process, it shall not be a valid excuse that the accused believed that the complainant affirmatively consented to the sexual activity if the accused knew or reasonably should have known that the complainant was unable to consent to the sexual activity under any of the following circumstances: (A) The complainant was asleep or unconscious. (B) The complainant was incapacitated due to the influence of drugs, alcohol, or medication, so that the complainant could not understand the fact, nature, or extent of the sexual activity. (C) The complainant was unable to communicate due to a mental or physical condition."
(B) looks a little bit vague, but I'd take it to mean that you can't give consent if you're basically too drunk to understand the meaning of the conversation. Aside from the issue of whether the state should be legislating about university policies, this sounds reasonable, doesn't it?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
UKIP will run around shouting and waving their arms.
It's a war there will be casualties, it's what happens.
It's an utterly fake war. Our six planes are simply props. If there are any casualties in this mess it will be a travesty.
I thought you (or at least others on the left if not you) were in favour of inheritance being taxed as income by the recipient rather than on the estate?
I haven't looked at the detail of osborne's proposal, but effectively that is what he is saying. The point I would note which does look generous is that (from press) this only appears payable *when the income is drawn down* - ie so the asset pot can remain in situ tax free.
I'm sure there will be hedges and details - but that does suggest there is the chance to build up tax free asset pools in the UK which can roll up on a gross basis. That's a pretty radical change unless there is a sunset clause of some kind (or Miliband pinches them after the next election)
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
Old expenses and allowances discontinued without much notification? Were you paid more expenses than your P11D return finally showed?
Every couple of years I have to remind HMRC to continue keeping allowances for my professional sbscriptions.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
UKIP will run around shouting and waving their arms.
It's a war there will be casualties, it's what happens.
It's an utterly fake war. Our six planes are simply props. If there are any casualties in this mess it will be a travesty.
Expensive props none the less
Precisely Malcolm. I'm very pleased that the SNP voted against this.
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
Are you in the 40% tax bracket and your employer has been deducting PAYE only at the basic rate? That happened to me years ago and I got a big bill when the Revenue caught up with the error. I spoke nicely to them and they adjusted my tax code rather than insisting on cash.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
What would happen if UKIP were in power and the situation with ISIL maintained? First of all under UKIP, Britain would have an armed forces capable of defending the UK. The rest follows.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Why would you bother asking a question, answering it yourself and drawing a conclusion from it?!
Honestly what you have done there is so ridiculous it beggars belief
I note you didn't proffer any policy.
The floor is yours.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
The British hostages are more likely to die as a result of our air strikes than they were before, and plenty of innocent Iraqis will die also.
'The sit on your hands, and do nothing' policy.
Given the opportunity, do you think ISIS would -
a. Respect you.
or
b. Chop your head off anyway for being a coward.
Far better and cheaper to chop a few of our own rather than waste billions on putting some planes over there to bomb headbangers, and save lots of innocent civilians into the bargain as we are not great at getting right targets.
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
Old expenses and allowances discontinued without much notification? Were you paid more expenses than your P11D return finally showed?
Every couple of years I have to remind HMRC to continue keeping allowances for my professional sbscriptions.
Thanks sarissa. I don't have any allowances other than for benefits paid by my employer. I assume I would get my P11D from my employer to check?
@Socrates "Do you know how it's defined?" I know hundreds of versions*. but you would assume in each case it would be the definition that the jury agrees on at the time?
*Eskimos know hundreds of words for "snow", Scots know even more for "drunk".
So if a married couple go on a night out with friends, and the husband is the designated driver, he shouldn't sleep with his wife that night, lest it be rape?
"(4) A policy that, in the evaluation of complaints in the disciplinary process, it shall not be a valid excuse that the accused believed that the complainant affirmatively consented to the sexual activity if the accused knew or reasonably should have known that the complainant was unable to consent to the sexual activity under any of the following circumstances: (A) The complainant was asleep or unconscious. (B) The complainant was incapacitated due to the influence of drugs, alcohol, or medication, so that the complainant could not understand the fact, nature, or extent of the sexual activity. (C) The complainant was unable to communicate due to a mental or physical condition."
(B) looks a little bit vague, but I'd take it to mean that you can't give consent if you're basically too drunk to understand the meaning of the conversation. Aside from the issue of whether the state should be legislating about university policies, this sounds reasonable, doesn't it?
Yes, that sounds reasonable and puts my concerns at rest. Thanks.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
Militarily it's here nor there.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
It is merely willy waving by someone with erectile dysfunction
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Yes - displays a certain simplicity of (not to say simplistic) analysis.....Its a bit more complicated than 'we won, they lost.....'
As the article itself points out the SNP have suffered far big reverses in Osborne's lifetime than getting support for a Yes vote from 25% to 45% in two years.
If he genuinely thinks what he said rather than just trying to create a reality bending soundbite then he is a buffoon.
1) When it comes to considering whether military action, I start from the approach that is supposedly in the Hippocratic Oath - first, do no harm.
2) We (I'll come back to who "we" are in a moment) should only act where our actions can be expected to make a positive difference and there is an urgent need for action.
3) We should have a clear aim for our actions that can be simply stated at the outset.
4) For this last reason in particular, I was in favour of us taking military action in Libya (though that hasn't worked out particularly well, given the state of affairs when we acted, it still seems to me that it was the correct decision at the time) and against intervening last year in Syria.
5) What are our aims now? In truth, we're not intervening to stop the current hostages being beheaded - that would be a bonus but it's beyond our control. Nor are we intervening directly to destroy ISIL - that requires ground troops and we're not putting any ground troops in. It seems, though it has not been well-articulated, that we are trying to contain ISIL and put in place conditions for local/regional forces to finish them off. Though it's unclear exactly who, since we apparently don't want to help President Assad and we don't want to build up Iran's influence.
6) This is not particularly the British government's fault. The problem is fuzzy thinking by Barack Obama's administration.
7) Our (yes, I'll come back to that) intervention in Iraq/Syria seems unlikely to improve matters. In a perfect world, we'd have a better plan. And yes, we'd probably be either staying out completely or putting our own ground troops in.
8) So who is "we"? For this purpose, the western democracies can be lumped together. If we were able, we should be seeking to get a much more coherent strategy in place. This is primarily a US failure, of course.
9) In the imperfect world that we live in, should Britain be standing on the sidelines or participating in a poorly planned campaign that is unlikely to improve matters? It seems to me that Britain should be seeking to make the best of a bad job, to improve a poor campaign that is going to happen anyway by maximising its chances of success.
So reluctantly I'm in favour of this intervention by Britain. But I don't feel at all good about it.
I agree with many of your thoughts, but your conclusion? The only 'influence' I think we have now is as a sort of bellweather. When it became clear that we would not join the bombing of Syria, that was one of the major factors in it not happening. Conversely, what we've done here is given a boost to a wrong-headed military intervention. That is the extent of our influence, and we've used it.
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Tend to agree. I think if anything, once Scotland gets devomax and they see that an Edinburgh government can run the country perfectly well, they will increasingly want to move to being a separate country.
Or Osbornes logic is that once Scotland has devomax, Westminster will have little to do with Scotland, so they are not going to be that bothered about independence.
I agree with Fraser Nelson - Osborne was FAR too complacent about SINDYREF on R4:
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
Thanks. There’s also a good article about why Reckless jumped. It’s a verbatim report of a conversation (sort of, you know) and puts a somewhat different context on his decision.
Mr. Llama, it's not great. The alternative is waiting until ISIS becomes an even bigger threat, though.
I should have thought that the alternative is to work out how to win the war and then commit sufficient resources to carry out the strategy. If you are not prepared to do it properly then all you are going to do is waste treasure and, possibly, lives..
OT Mr @Morris_Dancer - there's a great piece about Germans/humour and their cultural personality in The Times today [Life section]. Well worth a read. Apparently there's a new 30 part R4 series about to start.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
I'll let them know you're happy to take their place.
Lots of brave armchair warriors on here , very happy to have someone else fight for them.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 6m Peter Kellner: "Earlier this year I thought Ukip would probably win no seats next year. I can now envisage them winning up to ten" #cpc14
At current levels I think about 12 seats.
Someone asked if UKIP can get more seats than the LD next year, the answer at current levels is no, the LD still have a theoretical chance of getting 33% or so on their 57 seats while getting 2% in the rest and still get 5% of nationwide votes, right now they are getting around 6-7%. Now if the LD drop below 5% and UKIP still scoring in the high teens, then UKIP will probably end up with more seats.
@jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
That's the most interesting part to me.
Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.
Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.
It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless
If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
HMRC told me in the last month that I've underpaid on tax and owe a bunch, despite the fact that I'm on a single salary with no other income. I can't work out what happened - any ideas?
Old expenses and allowances discontinued without much notification? Were you paid more expenses than your P11D return finally showed?
Every couple of years I have to remind HMRC to continue keeping allowances for my professional sbscriptions.
Thanks sarissa. I don't have any allowances other than for benefits paid by my employer. I assume I would get my P11D from my employer to check?
you should get a P11D every year from employer
if you have a company car , private medical , private dental , etc it hammers your tax allowance
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
I'll let them know you're happy to take their place.
Lots of brave armchair warriors on here , very happy to have someone else fight for them.
That's the SNP position, stay in NATO but let someone else do the dirty work.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
Militarily it's here nor there.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
It is merely willy waving by someone with erectile dysfunction
A bit like Salmond, and the 12 Typhoons he was going to keep for the separatist air force.
Miss Plato, a 30 part radio series?! Sounds enormous.
I hardly ever listen to the radio now (still got an ancient walkman which will effectively be defunct in the near future as it plays cassette tapes and can only pick up analogue radio). Might give that programme a listen, if I catch it in time (I have a bad habit of missing the start of series. Happened to both seasons of Alphas, and I missed the first six episodes of The Walking Dead, season just shown on 5*).
Mr. Llama, it's not great. The alternative is waiting until ISIS becomes an even bigger threat, though.
If Baghdad or any other major city falls to ISIS hands now, the second coalition of the willing and their governments will get the blame. It is one thing to commit to a never ending war, its another to commit to a losing war.
It's elicited the reaction from Tory activists that it was designed to. However, to the likes of Charles, what anyone else thinks is of no consequence.
I'm sorry, but WTF?
That's an incredibly offensive comment with absolutely no basis in reality.
You do seem to take offence easily, Charles.
In what way was your comment not offensive?
In this way. I didn't give offence. You took it.
You stated that "to the likes of me" [what am I like, by the way?] other people's opinions are of no consequence.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
I'll let them know you're happy to take their place.
Lots of brave armchair warriors on here , very happy to have someone else fight for them.
That's the SNP position, stay in NATO but let someone else do the dirty work.
Better than just being arse lickers to USA. They at least think about it rather than just kiss butt.
@jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
That's the most interesting part to me.
Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.
Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.
It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless
If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?
How much do you want?
It does make some ironic sense that since the Tory whips office is in such a shambles that Gove might be a secret UKIP agent organizing the defections.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
Perhaps you'll tell us how six planes bombing (or not bombing as with yesterday) helps these potential beheadees any more than cowering and fist shaking?
Militarily it's here nor there.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
It is merely willy waving by someone with erectile dysfunction
A bit like Salmond, and the 12 Typhoons he was going to keep for the separatist air force.
12 would be more than sufficient for a small peaceful country. Still double what the willy wavers can muster for their 3rd illegal war.
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland. That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Tend to agree. I think if anything, once Scotland gets devomax and they see that an Edinburgh government can run the country perfectly well, they will increasingly want to move to being a separate country. Or Osbornes logic is that once Scotland has devomax, Westminster will have little to do with Scotland, so they are not going to be that bothered about independence. Whatever, it is not reversed.
Agreed, heard it on radio this morning. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Blimmin' heck, George Osborne really actually did say "for the first time in my lifetime the march of the separatists has been reversed" in reference to Scotland.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
Tend to agree. I think if anything, once Scotland gets devomax and they see that an Edinburgh government can run the country perfectly well, they will increasingly want to move to being a separate country.
Or Osbornes logic is that once Scotland has devomax, Westminster will have little to do with Scotland, so they are not going to be that bothered about independence.
Whatever, it is not reversed.
Osborne's logic is simply that it is a good soundbite and he will not be in government when the next part of this process plays out.
@jimwaterson: Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
That's the most interesting part to me.
Carswell's decision people seem to respect. He's liked, he's seen as thoughtful, and he didn't time his departure in a way that seemed to wound his former colleagues.
Reckless behaved in a much less honourable way.
It's not so much his departure, as the manner of his leaving that speaks volumes as to his character: and his elicited such a hostile reaction
Yup. Is why I want to campaign against Reckless
If any Tory MP defects during Dave's speech....
Do we have any odds from the bookies on this? - might be worth a speculative flutter...
Unfortunately the bookies have pulled their defection markets.
I thought maybe Gove could defect? Who wants to give me odds on that?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
What would happen if UKIP were in power and the situation with ISIL maintained? First of all under UKIP, Britain would have an armed forces capable of defending the UK. The rest follows.
Is that in addition to increasing unemployment benefits and ending disability tests for welfare recipients and cancelling the spare room subsidy? Or is that another policy for 24 hours?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 58m BBC reports that IS five miles from Baghdad defensive positions. The air war is going well ...
What will happen should ISIL or any other jihadist group capture SAM weapons and shoots down one or two British planes? Under Cammo, Britain has hardly any boots to put on the ground and sending only a battalion or two would only show up UK's military weakness.
What would Ukip do in the the unlikely event of 3 Britons being beheaded by ISIL ?
Cower and shake their fists at Calais ?
Kippers short on answers - long on grievances.
What would happen if UKIP were in power and the situation with ISIL maintained? First of all under UKIP, Britain would have an armed forces capable of defending the UK. The rest follows.
Is that in addition to increasing unemployment benefits and ending disability tests for welfare recipients and cancelling the spare room subsidy? Or is that another policy for 24 hours?
Farage is going to reinstate the handbag tax to pay for 60 Type 26's. Or something.
I'd let the other countries that are already bombing them carry on. They have more fire power than us, for all the difference we will make we might as well stay out.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
You're suggesting appeasing the extremists in the hope they don't stay mad at us?
We would be standing by and letting our allies bomb them, why isn't that enough?
Because it goes against what we stand for as a country to stand by and let others do the hard work against evil, while we freeload off their efforts. Who do you think we are, the Irish?
Unlike the UK the Irish actually have boots on the ground in Syria, Socrates. What do you think we are, uninformed idiots?
You mean the peacekeepers that get pulled out whenever it looks like they could get involved in actual fighting?
I'll let them know you're happy to take their place.
Lots of brave armchair warriors on here , very happy to have someone else fight for them.
Miss Plato, a 30 part radio series?! Sounds enormous.
I hardly ever listen to the radio now (still got an ancient walkman which will effectively be defunct in the near future as it plays cassette tapes and can only pick up analogue radio). Might give that programme a listen, if I catch it in time (I have a bad habit of missing the start of series. Happened to both seasons of Alphas, and I missed the first six episodes of The Walking Dead, season just shown on 5*).
It's on at 9.45 am in the slot usually reserved for book of the week. The presenter is Neil McGregor from the British Museum who did the history of the world in a hundred objects some time ago. I think the format is similar - the first one this morning looked at the Brandenburg gate.
Comments
The floor is yours.
8/11 and 15/2 on Betfair (midpoint)
The Reckless by election looks like being the closest of the parliament doesn't it? Only Eastleigh comes close
Quite exciting, like your team getting to a cup final against a big rival
Assuming that Carswell holds onto Clacton then it's entirely possible that win will still encourage subsequent defections, keeping the UKIP bandwagon rolling before the by-election in Rochester & Strood.
Interestingly, the looking at the Wikipedia polling graph it appears that UKIP have recovered the ground lost in the opinion polls in their post-election "slump", and are now close to their highest level of opinion poll support.
By the end of the year, with a couple of newly elected MPs in the Commons and another defection or two, and UKIP could expect to reach new heights.
The Lib Dem share could be closer to 5% than 10%. This compares with 7.5% in 1970... What chance of UKIP ending up with more seats than the Lib Dems in the 2015GE?
Why conservatives don;t vote conservative any more - number 387
* One example: The lifetime allowance is calculated on the assumption that a final salary scheme is worth 20 time the initial annual pension - without taking account of inflation-linking. In other words, it is based on the cloud-cuckoo-land assumption that you can buy an inflation-linked annuity at 5%. Great news for highly-paid civil servants, who can get a pension worth roughly 50% more than their private-sector equivalents without being penalised by the taxman.
We have a large group of Muslims in the UK that are only going to be incensed by our involvement... ISIS flags already fly in Tower Hamlets, and every terrorist act carried out by muslims is justified by our involvement in wars against Islamic regimes. Why not try a different approach?
The British hostages are more likely to die as a result of our air strikes than they were before, and plenty of innocent Iraqis will die also.
The official Tory website deleted the links to "old news" of Cameron's speeches, so the SPADs, reporters, and political geeks, have to try other sources. (of course, as they all tend to think alike, they tend to search the same places).
Everyone is revising what Dave said before, and what he will say during his speech.
Given the opportunity, do you think ISIS would -
a. Respect you.
or
b. Chop your head off anyway for being a coward.
I have no answer other than as the conservatives make HMRC more powerful and unaccountable, this organisation will try it on more and more with people who have very limited resources to fight back.
What do conservatives do when they are faced with a deficit? Do they cut spending to what we can afford? No.
They screw their core vote, that what.
The funniest use of deliberately different subtitles is in Kung Fu Hustle. It's dubbed from the Chinese into English - and has subtitles that often say something quite different. It's hilarious.
Carswell defected on August 28th, Reckless on September 27th - so that's one defection every 30 days. The general election is about 210 days away, but UKIP won't need a defection lined up for the end of February, just before the general election campaign starts, so they would need another four defections lined up to keep this going.
If they really have that lined up then it would be amazing.
Diplomatically it is very useful.
-Exerting strong diplomatic pressure on Saudi Arabia and Qatar to cease funding for ISIS
-Exerting strong diplomatic pressure on Turkey to close its border to militants. RIDICULOUS this is still open to replenish ISIS' ranks even as we're supposedly attacking them
-Stopping Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey from training further savage militants in their attempt to unseat the Assad regime
-Accepting that the Assad regime is here to stay, and that another Libya is not a desirable situation, and arming the SAA to eliminate ISIS
But that would be what we were doing if the aim were to defeat ISIS. What we're actually doing is using the ISIS threat as a pretext for the removal of the Assad regime.
I used to work in self-assessment at what was then the Inland Revenue, so if you message me through vanilla I can see if I can work it out.
Its the locals who are letting the side down. From what is being reported the Iraqi army may as well not exist.
The Scottish referendum campaign not only exposed the depth of contempt for ‘Westminster’ but also showed what politics could be, if done properly. So that’s the lesson I’d like Osborne to draw. The ghost of the Scottish campaign should haunt these party conferences: all of the unionist parties were almost beaten by a Scottish ‘yes’ team with a ludicrous proposition – but the ability to campaign properly, and with the ability to capture hearts and minds.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/what-george-osborne-should-learn-from-the-scottish-yes-campaign/
I cant get into one upmanship point scoring arguments all day every day...if you think we should go to war fair enough, I am just saying Im not convinced
I could have just ignored your question, but tried to answer honestly. Maybe I will be proved to be wrong, it happens
Incidentally, how long have you been living in the UK?
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/us/article/California-adopts-yes-means-yes-sex-assault-rule-5787005.php
So if a married couple go on a night out with friends, and the husband is the designated driver, he shouldn't sleep with his wife that night, lest it be rape?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29411031
MP flashing on the internet, a resignation.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:x9oSuke_V7AJ:blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/what-george-osborne-should-learn-from-the-scottish-yes-campaign/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-george-osborne-should-learn-from-the-scottish-yes-campaign+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
1) When it comes to considering whether military action, I start from the approach that is supposedly in the Hippocratic Oath - first, do no harm.
2) We (I'll come back to who "we" are in a moment) should only act where our actions can be expected to make a positive difference and there is an urgent need for action.
3) We should have a clear aim for our actions that can be simply stated at the outset.
4) For this last reason in particular, I was in favour of us taking military action in Libya (though that hasn't worked out particularly well, given the state of affairs when we acted, it still seems to me that it was the correct decision at the time) and against intervening last year in Syria.
5) What are our aims now? In truth, we're not intervening to stop the current hostages being beheaded - that would be a bonus but it's beyond our control. Nor are we intervening directly to destroy ISIL - that requires ground troops and we're not putting any ground troops in. It seems, though it has not been well-articulated, that we are trying to contain ISIL and put in place conditions for local/regional forces to finish them off. Though it's unclear exactly who, since we apparently don't want to help President Assad and we don't want to build up Iran's influence.
6) This is not particularly the British government's fault. The problem is fuzzy thinking by Barack Obama's administration.
7) Our (yes, I'll come back to that) intervention in Iraq/Syria seems unlikely to improve matters. In a perfect world, we'd have a better plan. And yes, we'd probably be either staying out completely or putting our own ground troops in.
8) So who is "we"? For this purpose, the western democracies can be lumped together. If we were able, we should be seeking to get a much more coherent strategy in place. This is primarily a US failure, of course.
9) In the imperfect world that we live in, should Britain be standing on the sidelines or participating in a poorly planned campaign that is unlikely to improve matters? It seems to me that Britain should be seeking to make the best of a bad job, to improve a poor campaign that is going to happen anyway by maximising its chances of success.
So reluctantly I'm in favour of this intervention by Britain. But I don't feel at all good about it.
It depends on your definition of "drunk".
It brings the law into line with the other non legal drugs.
That is a statement as thick as mince an beyond.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
second article
It will have been a calculated master strategy to ensure victory..........or not?
Not for us to worry about headcases that want to go and take chances like that.
They should stay at home.
Peter Kellner: "Earlier this year I thought Ukip would probably win no seats next year. I can now envisage them winning up to ten" #cpc14
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB967
The bit about being drunk is here: (B) looks a little bit vague, but I'd take it to mean that you can't give consent if you're basically too drunk to understand the meaning of the conversation. Aside from the issue of whether the state should be legislating about university policies, this sounds reasonable, doesn't it?
I haven't looked at the detail of osborne's proposal, but effectively that is what he is saying. The point I would note which does look generous is that (from press) this only appears payable *when the income is drawn down* - ie so the asset pot can remain in situ tax free.
I'm sure there will be hedges and details - but that does suggest there is the chance to build up tax free asset pools in the UK which can roll up on a gross basis. That's a pretty radical change unless there is a sunset clause of some kind (or Miliband pinches them after the next election)
Every couple of years I have to remind HMRC to continue keeping allowances for my professional sbscriptions.
"Do you know how it's defined?"
I know hundreds of versions*. but you would assume in each case it would be the definition that the jury agrees on at the time?
*Eskimos know hundreds of words for "snow", Scots know even more for "drunk".
Yes, that sounds reasonable and puts my concerns at rest. Thanks.
If he genuinely thinks what he said rather than just trying to create a reality bending soundbite then he is a buffoon.
Or Osbornes logic is that once Scotland has devomax, Westminster will have little to do with Scotland, so they are not going to be that bothered about independence.
Whatever, it is not reversed.
Someone asked if UKIP can get more seats than the LD next year, the answer at current levels is no, the LD still have a theoretical chance of getting 33% or so on their 57 seats while getting 2% in the rest and still get 5% of nationwide votes, right now they are getting around 6-7%.
Now if the LD drop below 5% and UKIP still scoring in the high teens, then UKIP will probably end up with more seats.
if you have a company car , private medical , private dental , etc it hammers your tax allowance
I hardly ever listen to the radio now (still got an ancient walkman which will effectively be defunct in the near future as it plays cassette tapes and can only pick up analogue radio). Might give that programme a listen, if I catch it in time (I have a bad habit of missing the start of series. Happened to both seasons of Alphas, and I missed the first six episodes of The Walking Dead, season just shown on 5*).
It is one thing to commit to a never ending war, its another to commit to a losing war.
That is simply not true.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29410493