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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a major
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority
It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and Labour.
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As I said, the most interesting poll this weekend was the one showing Labour comfortably holding Rotherham, and their share of the vote up!
It kinda proves that UKIP doing well in the North/with the working class is all fart and no follow through.
You have not bothered to look at the actual numbers have you ?
Silly 45
Can't see it
The opinion polls say different, but aren't they always miles out this far away from elections? The euro ones were absolutely useless
There are too many undecideds. In the New Year campaigning will begin in earnest and people will only decide once they see the candidates.
Miliband is poison, a few more gaffs and he's history.
We love the poles in Scotland - they serve us beer!!!!!
I is grumpy.
Not sure I believe this. It is within the (very broad) range of realistic possibilities, but I think something messier will be the end result.
Ukip are massively on the up in the North... Anyone denying it is ignoring all evidence...
number crunchers blog showed that UKIP are eating into labours vote too, just because it isn't producing instant results, doesn't mean it isn't slowly but surely happening
18 months ago I offered 4/6 ukip under 10% to a few lucky punters on here... Ladbrokes were 1/6 at the time... They thought they were on a good thing, but the odds say different now
in terms of GE 2015, maybe not too many if any ukip gains from labour, but if you want to bet on the number in 2020 I'm happy to take you or anyone else on
Defectors Right
Defectors Right constitute 20.2% of all voters and 99% of these say that they would vote UKIP in a
general election tomorrow. 74% of Defectors Right say that they would still consider voting for the
Conservatives at the next general election.
Only 14% of Defectors Right are satisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing as Prime Minister.
However, 77% are dissatisfied but would still prefer him to Ed Miliband, and only 9% would rather
have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. 90% trust Cameron and Osborne more to manage the economy
than Miliband and Balls.
78% say that they would prefer a Conservative government after the next general election. 10% say
a Labour government is their preferred outcome; 9% choose a Conservative-Liberal Democrat
coalition, and a further 4% pick a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition.
Defectors Right rate Nigel Farage (8.29) far above David Cameron (4.49) and really don’t like Ed
Miliband (1.16). Similarly, UKIP (8.51) beats the Conservative Party (4.70) and the Labour Party
(1.46). 3% say they are moving towards the Conservative Party and 77% away from it. 2% say they
are moving towards Labour, 1% towards the Liberal Democrats and 97% towards UKIP.
61% of Defectors Right agree that austerity must continue for another five years, compared to the
average of 45%. Only 10% agree that austerity was never really needed. Almost half of Defectors
Right (47%) say that they have not yet felt the benefits of an economic recovery but expect to do so
but two fifths (42%) say that they don’t expect to feel any benefit. Only 11% have benefited already.
Among this group, the Conservatives lead Labour and the Liberal Democrats by large margins in all
policy areas but fewer than a third of Defectors Right (31%) think that the Conservatives are on the
side of people like them and only a quarter (26%) trust them to do what they say.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Project-Blueprint-Phase-5.pdf
Yes things can change and did so in late autumn 2009 but that doesn't negate what we are seeing at themoment.
Meanwhile, as Newmark has removed himself from the news, the spotlight has swung onto the Mirror:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/28/sunday-mirror-pressure-reveal-details-tory-minister-sexting-sting-brooks-newmark
We might as well get a leftie comedian as PM. At least we´ll get the laughs.
Even so, by comparison with the fake moralizing of Mr Shapps, both UKIP and its new MPs are praiseworthy and honourable. They are groping towards the truth about this country, and they have been prepared to undergo risk and abuse to do so. Much as I wish this long overdue crisis had come five years ago (when we could have been saved from so much) I am glad it has at last arrived."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/09/the-tory-party-should-examine-itself-before-accusing-others-of-lying-.html
Had no view on Clegg in 2010. Was a bit surprised all and sundry thought he did well though.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/09/has-reckless-done-cameron-a-favour.html
cameron in his speech should make a head on challenge to his party - if you want to join UKIP just go, just walk out the door, don't turnaround now, you aren't welcome any more. Let's get rid of the headbangers!!!!!!!!!
The bitter condescension of the arrogant leftie.
David Cameron has said the last debates in 2010 took to much out of the campaign.
If they are to go ahead on the proposed PM`s timetable of outside the campaign,
they might not decide anything.
I've always thought Hung Parliament, Con largest party was most likely in 2015. Given the behavior of "The Right" I now think Hung Parliament, Lab largest largest party is most likely, but we're not going to see Ed sweeping all before him with a thumping great majority.
It'll be 1974 at best for Ed.
Watch out PB non-tories!!!!!!!
That polling confirmed I was right, 'twas ever thus.
What makes the Ashcroft polling so good is the large sample sizes in each of the constituencies (usually around 1,000, which is the same as some of some GB wide VI polls), so we can draw definitive conclusions.
When discussion turned to Europe, few spontaneously mentioned the referendum pledge, and many were unaware of it even when prompted. Few were enthused by the idea and only a small minority said it would be central to their voting decision.
More noticed in relation to Europe were David Cameron’s “rows” with other EU leaders. Few could remember the details, let alone the name of Mr Juncker, but there was strong approval for the PM being willing to “stand up to” Europe even if he did not win.
Taking your political hats off, and donning your punters' apparel, how much value in 4/5? Why are the Conservatives so short at evens when it would take a 3-4 point swing from Labour, on current polling, to take them close to most seats?
In 2010/11 you actually called me an ugly lefty tit!!! Haha
But no one believes what i say on here now because I'm a kipper... Mike gives it the big one but won't bet against me etc
My parents are lifelong labour and public sector workers... One is voting ukip the other is on the fence... But hates immigration and thinks Miliband is a wimp!
Let's take Southam Observer... Not voting labour, and his mother, lifelong labour, is voting ukip because of political correctness
Ukip are up 31 points in Rotherham... And the editor of this site is saying that proves they aren't doing well in the North!!!!
It's borderline madness
Look at the betting markets over the last 18 months... Ukip to do well in any way you wish to suggest has shortened in price
If 18 months ago you'd predicted
Won euros
Scottish MEP
Two Tory defectors
Established as 3rd in polls
Odds on favourites for three parliamentary seats
13/8 to win five or more
People on here would never have had it ... But it's all true
But my fear is that because Labour seem to have lost their nerve completely and have stopped having any "left-wing" policies or arguments, all that Ed is going to have left to say in the debates are boring platitudes. And if the content of what he's saying isn't interesting, there's going to be NOTHING to distract the viewer from how funny Ed's voice is, how awkward he looks, and how hard it is to imagine him meeting Obama or negotiating with Putin.
Also no VAT increases, everyone with any sense, thought we can not go on like this with
politicians trying to please everyone, and can not bring themselves to even mention a cut, after a world wide banking meltdown.
He did not deserve a majority none of them did.
They in the last debates pedalled a myth , they all deserve a anti Westminster kicking .
Others will be able to give a more detailed answer but it's been mentioned a few times that there's a weird disconnect between constituency markets and the overall winner market for the forthcoming election.
Labour's vote is typically very helpfully distributed but it may be a bit less so this year, due to the SNP and UKIP. In addition, Miliband's not exactly enticing voters. I wouldn't be surprised if it was pretty close between the two major parties.
On defections: who was the last Labour defector?
1) Tory MP defects to UKIP
2) Tory MP quits in sleaze scandal
3) In depth poll of key marginal show Labour cruising for a large majority
PB has a discussion about how things are bad for Ed Miliband..... Beautiful
Won euros
Scottish MEP
Two Tory defectors
Established as 3rd in polls
Odds on favourites for three parliamentary seats
13/8 to win five or more]
Other than the last one - all the other points were very much predictable from, say, 12 months ago.
I can think of 3 reasons why the Tories are close in the betting despite all that. 1. Most political bettors are on the right and many of them will let their heart rule their head. 2. The economy is improving, and this combined with the agreement that Ed M is pretty duff, point towards an improvement in Tory chances between now and May. 3. The Ukip effect is likely to start hitting Labour more and more.
Most participants supported the principle and the detail of the government’s welfare reforms. There were some reservations, however, particularly among Defectors but also among some Considerers and even Loyalists who felt that some deserving cases, especially disabled people, were being treated unduly harshly.
“Certain parts of society are being scapegoated. I liked the benefits cap but it was the rhetoric
that went with it.” - Defector
“If you’re on the borderline they are a bit harsh.” - Considerer
If you are looking at a UKIP gain in the midlands, have a look at NW Leics. The area is largely WWC in Coalville and around, has elected a BNP councillor in recent times, has few ethnic minorities and has HS2 passing through it without stopping. There have been a couple of Council defectors to UKIP and there has been talk of the incumbent Andrew Bridgen defecting.
If UKIP cannot take seats like this then they are nowhere in the midlands.
Lead his party back to majority government after a single term of Opposition...
Isn't he?
Nice plan - but us brits aren't good enough at the Eu diplomacy thing to be able to consider this. Who cares - they've bothered to learn the lingua franca - I'm sure they often have our best interests at heart.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-sent-home-from-rochester-after-voters-take-against-reckless-defection-9760917.html
Well that's debatable, esp if you suggested it on here, but in any case, I said 18 months ago
By the way, I want to put the LD switchers in context- they are Labour switch backers, and only gave their support to the LD's in the first place because Brown was hopeless and thought Cameron was non threatening. Now after a term of Tory govt, they are rock solid switch backers and a core Labour group.
The danger to Labour will be leakage to UKIP and apathy from the 29% who voted Brown last time- very few will go to the Tories.
After my disastrous predictions for the Scottish election, based solely on subjective bias, I predict that it is almost impossible for Labour to poll over 33% in a GE with numpty bumpy as leader, and therefore impossible for them to secure a majority.
FN win both senate seats in the Correze.
Thats like UKIP winning Doncaster and Rotherham.
We were told for years that people vote for what they think will be the best result for them. And that negates the Ed is odd/crap/nerdy issue as his inability to eat on camera doesn't counterbalance "I'll be better off" or the other reasons people have for voting Labour.
These are not issues that will swing VI much to the annoyance and general wailing of many here. But its not game over, not by a long shot. Who knows what could happen between now and May. The Tories should be focused on this, not on the leadership succession.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/People/article1464734.ece?shareToken=3a8efe8cdc12e8d432faa7d1c894bc30
When he speaks on Wednesday, Cameron will not repeat his no-notes performance of 2007, but will echo his 2006 speech urging Conservatives to “let sunshine win the day” ...
“The next stage is about demonstrating what this means for every family in the country ..."
He added: “What it should feel like in 2020 is not that there is light at the end of the tunnel but that we’re through the tunnel and we’re part of a country that we’re really proud of.”
However you still have to still tighten your belt for another six years, because the country is reducing its deficit very slowly is a hard sell.
It might help if they explained the difference between debt and deficit to the many , rather than the few.
They were asking SCOTTISH people if they were Scottish - and got 45%.
Epic fails.