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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-M
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race
As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so.
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Well, there was a bit of excitement but the Scotts came to the brink, looked over the edge, were frit and decided that living on English grants and subsidies was better than independence.
Has that Malcome feller been on and if not, will he ever be seen again?
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·2 mins
Seems like Cameron has managed to stick a knife into Labour's back even while avoiding the SNP's sword.
Speaking of things that are soon, P1 starts in just over half an hour.
Survation didn't win the polling war according to my Ladbrokes account balance.
Probably best off defining "final" in future ^_~ (Poll released before 10 pm May 5th 2015 for example )
He has a weapon now against Labour..he and the rest of the tories just have to use it to their best advantage.
I was watching the Rock sometime this week, as Sean Connery's character in it says.
'Losers always whine about doing 'their best. Winners win then go home and f*** the prom queen'.
If Cameron and the tories want to be winners they have to get dirty and use any tool they can.
Perhaps he will now invest in an atlas and look up how far from Scotland England and Sweden are.
In Angus, Perthshire and Banff, the Tories stand on 31%, 9 or ten points adrift.
Clearly these are the areas to target alongside the borders and Kincardine.
East Highlands and Borders are the areas from which the Scots Tories need to rebuild.
Following a no and with the Lib Dems moribund in Scotland, they ought to be looking at taking two Lib Dem seats and one from the SNP (Angus or Perth probably)
And there's a problem straight away. It is undoubtedly the case that with the extra powers that the Scottish parliament is rightly going to get there needs to be balancing measures for England. The logic of EV4EL is inarguable. But the devil is going to be in the detail. Nigel Farage is right - we need a constitutional convention to sort this out so that we get a final settlement that has cross-party support. The alternative is a dog's dinner, imposed for narrow party interest that will continually be revised depending on who is in power. That way lies ever-greater disconnect between voters and those who represent them.
I have always been a supporter of PR and if the argument is that the views of English voters have to be properly represented when decisions about England only issues are being made, then I cannot see how there can be any argument against it. After all, EV4EL is not about choosing a government - it is about ensuring that whoever is in government only passes legislation that affects England if they can persuade those representing the majority of English voters that it should pass. In other words, it is a blocking mechanism.
Imagine the firestorms as incendiaries fall among the glue, lighter fuel and methylated spirits in those Scottish council estates....
Quite disturbing/surreal (though I haven't watched it) release by ISIS. British journo hostage presenting chat show style video
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2761595/Three-minutes-21-seconds-deeply-chilling-propaganda-Anatomy-slickly-produced-ISIS-video-burdened-menace.html
Labour is safest in Scotland not in the working class areas of Strathclyde, but the middle class areas like East Renfrewshire and South Edinburgh, a pattern that has been developing for some time. The SNP now firmly established to the left of Labour in many areas.
This isn't just a Scottish scenario though, when the Tories can be elected in Sherwood and Cannock, and Labour have MP's from Edgbaston and Hampstead it becomes a UK wide trend.
We Dougie was on the radio early on last night. His pitch was quite interesting.
He said in addition to voters feeling the economy wasn't working for them (sic), they also felt politics wasn't working for them, and Labour needed to address that
Which is fine, except as Dan Hodges points out, Dougie is a Scottish MP for a Scottish seat, and so now needs to STFU while the English sort out EV4EL
We Dougie was on the radio early on last night. His pitch was quite interesting.
He said in addition to voters feeling the economy wasn't working for them (sic), they also felt politics wasn't working for them, and Labour needed to address that
Which is fine, except as Dan Hodges points out, Dougie is a Scottish MP for a Scottish seat, and so now needs to STFU while the English sort out EV4EL
That would be to fall into the trap David Cameron (and, to be fair, Ed Miliband) fell into: letting your opponent frame the debate. Both parties were too willing to accept Alex Salmond's view that only Scots could join in the debate -- and if the English or Welsh cannot be heard in Scotland, what is the point of the union?
Tories will go to 2015 election with devo max offer with England included.
Labour will have to oppose as they are completely screwed without Scot's & Welsh MP's.
Voters will go nationalistic to get best solution for their own country, which won't be labour.
In the mean time, every time a whinging Scottish Labour MP appears on the media, like wee Dougie this morning, appears on the media trying to justify Scot MP's voting on England only issues, more English voters will desert labour.
Labour squeezed everywhere. Cameron as PM has the power to make all the running on this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gksMSyn10MQ
Scottish and Welsh MPs rally need to stop telling the English what constitutional settlement we should have. We'll decide thanks.
.@Ed_Miliband hints at regional devolution but he offers no clear policy. The North East rejected this idea by 77.9% only 10 years ago
Welcome to the new Janus party which Labour have taken over from the Lib Dems. In Scotland Labour are facing a three way vote split with the other 2 unionists for just 55% of the vote whilst saying they are best for handing over largesse to the Scots and then facing up to their English voters and saying the same thing to them…. Just as the Lib Dems were forced by Govt to be accountable for Janus politics, should Labour get back into power of the HoC, they will eventually come a cropper through their politics of disadvantaging the 85%+ of UK voters that are English.
Meanwhile, we have the SNP turning into the Scottish National Socialist party, who wud have thunk it?
Cameron on the right side of history. Again. Miliband not. Again...
1. First things first: this shows, once again, that you don't have to be 'on the ground' to make money from political betting. In fact, it can be easier to be objective if you're hundreds of miles away and don't have a strong personal stake in the outcome.
2. I think the polls were remarkably accurate, once you factor in the 'cold feet' adjustment which favours the status quo at the last minute in this sort of referendum. My final estimate was something around 43% to 45%, based on taking the polling and subtracting a couple of percent from Yes.
3. Of course we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that 45% was, objectively, a very good result for the Yes side, compared with historic polling and early expectations (like many others, I'd originally expected something around 40%). The No campaign, particularly the Labour contribution, was dire - it should have been much easier to counter Salmond's bluster and fantasies.
4. David Cameron gambled and won, by forcing the issue to a straight Yes/No. That has saved the union in the long term by denying the separatists the option of DevoMax as a further step on the road to independence. Of course they'll still get some variant of DevoMax, but as an end-point, not an intermediate step.
5. Looks like we may be on the way to the great prize of addressing the WLQ. Labour have been out-manoeuvred on this.
6. In UK party-politics terms, perhaps the most striking thing is how completely irrelevant Ed Miliband seems in all this.
7. In Scottish party-political terms, Scottish Labour look severely damaged. It was noticeable last night that traditional Labour strongholds were weaker for the No side than expected. Labour's heart just didn't seem to be in it, until Brown woke from his slumbers and growled. A lot now will depend on whether the SNP recover from the blow to their morale; if they do, they are in a good position to benefit from Scottish Labour's own existential crisis and regroup as the party which 'stands up for Scotland' in whatever enhanced Holyrood setting comes out of this. They have, after all, persuaded a lot of former tribally-loyal Labour voters to support their vision, not Labour's.
8. Given that the LibDems in Scotland are not exactly thriving, in this zero-sum game the Scottish Tories must logically make some progress, albeit from a low base.
Meantime lets not forget that the SNP movement only grew on the back of North Sea Oil and a sudden selfish desire to grab it all for themselves. North Sea Oil will be gone to a great extent in 20 years and if it is not it will be truly gone within a further 20 years of that. There will be no imperative for any further independence demands.
The other driver for independence seems to me to have been blunt left wing bigotry and I suspect the frothing left wingers were eager to remove the nuclear deterrent and nuclear power and were happy to undermine not perhaps a 'Conservative' England but some sort of wierd 'imperialist' England and by association the USA.
And in the longer term, it will probably favour Labour anyway since it leads on issues most likely to be devolved.
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If you are suggesting abolishing the whips system and having all votes in Parliament as free votes then you are not just echoing Carswell but myself as I have been a lone voice for this on this site for the last decade or so.
But do you not consider that as incompatible with PR?
I don't disagree in essence.
I believe restricting the whip to a specific small number of uses by each party during each parliament (abolishing it for everything may not be in the national interest and a compromise may be needed) and therefore making party leadership pick and choose their three line whips very carefully is the way forward.
I would also want FPTP in the English Parliament and would prefer FPTP for all houses but if a compromise has to be made then AV/PR in one of the Fed UK houses would be the compromise. It might undermine PR but I don't think it necessarily has to. As the HoL is appointed and largely whipped what I would propose has surely got to be better and certainly no worse than the current heavily whipped centralised party control of today.
That said neither of those considerations are intrinsic with the structure of the government and democratic institutions and as such should not preclude an English Parliament.
Anonymous said...
We got robbed. A vote that was neither free nor fair and would make Mugabe blush.
North Korean levels of state control and propaganda. Paid for by our taxes. Hate campaigns whipped up by the racists of Labour and their useful idiots.
Of course proudScotbuts don't care. All they wanted was a NO and they couldn't give a flying fuck what happens to Scotland now.
The enemy within, traitors and quislings to the last maggot.
Labour in Scotland. Hitlers little helpers for the modern age.
Long term a Yes vote would have been an utter utter disaster for Labour. I think Labour won't mind last night's result one bit.
Furthermore I think the Tories will cope with losing 9 MP's if Labour lose 67.......
Having oodles of Scottish MPs in frontbench Westminster roles may have been a *good* idea before last night. Not anymore. From today, they really don't have any Check Your Privilege legitimacy to talk about EV4EL.
I'm amazed that EdM et al have been so totally out triangulated by Cameron & Co this morning. Surely it was blindingly obvious what CCHQ had up its sleeve if the result was a solid No?
The press has been rammed full of unhappy posters talking about Barnett, EV4EL, unfairness, WLQ et al. Sorry, fell asleep...
We Dougie was on the radio early on last night. His pitch was quite interesting.
He said in addition to voters feeling the economy wasn't working for them (sic), they also felt politics wasn't working for them, and Labour needed to address that
Which is fine, except as Dan Hodges points out, Dougie is a Scottish MP for a Scottish seat, and so now needs to STFU while the English sort out EV4EL
It reads a little like Sean Hannity's reaction after the 2012 Presidential election."Scotland, it pains us to say, will get the reward it deserves for its gutlessness."
....Ouch!
1/50 Labour 10/1 UKIP was absolutely crazy
Not much matched on Betfair ( I notice @mikeSmithson didn't apologise after he broke his neck to correct me yesterday before realising I was right.... Come on Mike be a gent, it's not all about one upmanship)
1) Sturgeon launches a bid for the leadership within 12 months, it is a bloody battle but she succeeds.
2) Brown and Murphy take over the Scottish Labour Party.
3) As Labour's power in England and Wales starts to dwindle, the 2016 Holyrood election is won by Scottish Labour.
4) SNP in-fighting continues between the militants and the more liberal members of the party and they shrink to become a minority party for years.
The last one is wishful thinking, but still hopeful.
How many English voters will say yes to "do you want your income tax rate set by MP's who it doesn't apply to?"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17949950
David Cameron's plans to replace local council cabinets with directly elected mayors have been rejected by voters in nine English cities.
Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Wakefield, Coventry, Leeds and Bradford voted "no" to the idea, championed by ministers.
It's a non-starter from the beginning...
We used to talk about them quite a lot before GE2010. Will they vote Tory again with the SNP/nationalism on the backfoot?
Poor old malcolm. Poor old Stuart. Tee hee!
As part of a new start we need to think about rebranding Scotland. A new name would help. They can still think of themselves poetically as Scotland in the same the Japanese think of themselves as Yamato. But a more modern and apt name for their region, going forward, would have to be along the lines of SeanT's suggestion: Englandsbitchesshire.
If that's the case then they shouldn;t mind English votes for English laws.
Its not just Scottish MPs anyway. Its Wales too. We're talking about freezing 70 labour MPs out of English Laws they had no earthly right to deliberate on anyway.
With respect I think you overestimate Brown. Never has there been a politician so wrong headed and lost in his own Byzantine logic. Never has there been a politician so obsessed with and confident in setting his theoretical ducks in a row - only to find the very first one flies off at a tangent before he can draw a bead on it.
Meantime just when there is a bit of sky sports headlines I want to watch - we get wall to wall politics. Oh misery.
If turnout at GE2010 (65.1%) had matched the turnout in the Scottish Independence referendum (84.59%) then an extra 8.9 million people would have voted at the GE. If the politicians can offer them something worth voting for - or perhaps involve them in choosing what that should be - then there are lots of votes to be won.
hahahahaha...
I was right not to trust the old Labour MP from North Lanarkshire last night.
It beggars belief, doesn't it? Alex Salmond may not have only won home rule for his country, he may also have destroyed the labour party.
Would he accept ennoblement?
there were some discrepancies in the reporting of the shortlist in the last few days. Liverpool Echo solves it..
CLP shortlisting committee originally shortlisted
Peter Dowd
Luthfur Rahman
Julie McManus
Alex Mayer
(Dowd is the local council leader...the other 3 comes from Manchester, Wirral and Cambridge).
Then after complaints NEC steps in and add Alex Flynn (Unite director of Campaign and media), born and grown up in Bootle) and Matthew Doyle (former Mandy's SpAd) to the shortlist.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/labour-party-intervenes-forces-changes-7790422
Let the three party leaders have some time to come to an agreement that they can sell to their parties and which is fair(er) to the constituent countries. *If* it works it will be simpler and quicker.
The Better Together campaign worked, just, with the three of them all pulling in the same direction, and required not a little cooperation. Although Miliband's criminal spinelessness over Syria last year shows he probably does not have the cojones to take his party with him over something they do not like.
If that does not work, then maybe a convention is in order. But that may not reach a conclusion either ...
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/04/why-david-cameron-isnt-being-hard-on-maria-miller.html
We have NI as well of course.
I would like to think this opens up the chance for more tory MPs in Wales and Scotland.
An English Grand Committee should be formed. I'm not sure I agree with more money raising powers for local authorities or cities. I do not trust local authoriries not to milk non voters ie businesses to feed their pet constituencies.
Utterly delusional.
+£14.25/-£60 with Betfair on that one.
Every little helps as Tesco say.
I guess his funding will dry up now too, so it's time for him to get a proper job, or keep sponging off the hated English.
Labour Party conference starts in less than 48 hours. Is Ed Miliband seriously just going to try and wing it? Fob everyone off with some vacuous platitudes about bringing people together?
Yep, Dan. That is exactly what Ed is going to try to do, on all issues, not just EV4EL, but also on welfare, the economy, education, and everything else.
It will be very interesting to see if it works.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSOu8f549iM&feature=youtu.be
Labour stand alone.
If Ed has a Gov't that relies on Scottish MPs, well he will have a Gov't that relies on Scottish MPs...