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  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    SeanT said:

    Question for all pb-ers, are there any ardent unionists who have predicted a YES? Or, more interestingly, are there any Nats who have predicted a NO?

    I can't find any of the latter on the graph.

    I lean No but have predicted Yes.
  • Yikes, 2 decimals :/

    Yes: 51.30%
    Turnout: 83.26%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337


    Just seen this on the @AngrySalmond Twitter:


    "Polls which show #BetterTogether winning are never taken in a pub. This is not an accurate way to judge Scottish opinion."

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    SeanT said:

    Question for all pb-ers, are there any ardent unionists who have predicted a YES? Or, more interestingly, are there any Nats who have predicted a NO?

    I can't find any of the latter on the graph.

    I'd class myself as an ardent (if pessimistic) Unionist predicting a Yes.

    I am frankly disappointed more people are not (seriously) willing to consider in general a better than 20 point lead for either side. What could have made people think things are likely to be close?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    I predicted 45.00% Yes, and 81.00% turnout.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    My guess was Yes 44.65%, with the turnout 84.00%.

    There will be quite a lot that don't vote, because they are away, ill or don't vote because they cannot decide. I think YES is overstated because they are shouting the loudest. I think some of the NO support are staying quiet.
  • Alistair said:

    The prediction page is asking for a username and password, I signed up using my Google account OpenID - what should I put in? do I need ot create a non-Google based account and use that info?

    You shouldn't need to sign in at all - just follow the link from the main thread: enter your prediction and click Save.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SeanT said:

    Question for all pb-ers, are there any ardent unionists who have predicted a YES?

    I was an ardent unionist but I now find myself rather lukewarm. I expect that YES will win by a small margin but I cannot bring myself to believe that people will be so daft as to throw away the United Kingdom. So I have voted NO more in hope than belief.

    Medium to long term, I feel the union is doomed especially if NO wins by a small margin.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    King Cole, if you want a quality tossing then you really need a trebuchet to fling one of the bounders into the North Sea.

    For more serious offenders, the solar death ray or space cannon offer more permanent punishments.

    Quality tossing I can understand. I doubt though one could find a quality tosser amoung politicians. Average ones unquestionably.

    I do like the idea of a trebuchet though. Where would it be situated? If at Lowestoft one would be surte of the victim ending up in the North Sea.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    The Ipsos-Mori is out at 6pm and YouGov at 10pm

    Am going to await that Ipsos-Mori poll before voting, given their success at the Holyrood election.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Have predicted 52.83% for YES and 81.65% turnout. Looked at the SKY page http://news.sky.com/story/1336051/scotland-referendum-explore-the-voting-areas and noted all the registration totals.

    Interesting only 91% have registered in Edinburgh versus 97% in Glasgow...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    My sense of gloom expects YES to win. My heart tells me that most Scots do not swallow Salmond's pipedream so I have split the DKs and subtracted it off the common poll figure for YES. That puts me at 40%

    It will be a disaster if I win £50 of bets. I have never been in a bookies in my life.

    Bev, for sure you will have little chance of being within a country mile at 40%
  • hucks67 said:

    My guess was Yes 44.65%, with the turnout 84.00%.

    There will be quite a lot that don't vote, because they are away, ill or don't vote because they cannot decide. I think YES is overstated because they are shouting the loudest. I think some of the NO support are staying quiet.


    My guess was 45.21% + 86.16% for similar reasons to yours.

  • King Cole, I have a trebuchet on the east coast, and a reinforced titanium one on the south, for fat people who need flinging.

    The Morris Dancer Party is committed to equal opportunities for criminals, regardless of gender, race, age, culture, religion, or daily cake consumption.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2014
    Because 50% of Scots and 80% of FUKers still want the union.

    Hodges points out that the 50% who want it only want it if we give them almost complete autonomy, more money and an effective veto over what we do in England via Scottish MPs

    Who wants a countryman like that?? I don't
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    taffys said:

    I'm starting to think a narrow no would be much worse.

    I am certain you are right. I have been saying exactly that for some time now.
    taffys said:


    Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.

    Unfortunately, I agree with that too unless NO wins by a big enough margin, say 33% or more
  • Telegraph reports on some fairly nasty intimidation including a pensioner handing out No leaflets being punched in the face.

    Also allegations of electoral fraud.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102194/Threats-intimidation-and-abuse-the-dark-side-of-the-Yes-campaign-exposed.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    taffys said:

    My sense of gloom expects YES to win.

    Would that be so gloomy? I'm starting to think a narrow no would be much worse. There is no way English conservatives will grant Scotland extra powers and extra money. There is a huge silence on the tory back benches, being broken only by a few off messagers until Friday/.

    When the promises founder, Scotland will be up in arms, rightly.

    Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.

    I'm gloomy as hell about the Union's prospects even in the event of NO winning, which I don't expect, but Hodges is just plain wrong in some of his thinking (shocking I know). Part of his argument seems to boil down to that the Union has had to fight so hard to justify itself, fight so desperately, means it is not worth anything, or in fact never really existed.

    If the Union is to survive (assuming for a moment No can win), then big changes will be required if it is to last a lot longer. The SNP will not be going anywhere. Wales might well get a bit more anxious too. England is getting increasingly concerned about what Scotland is being offered and it is not. These things need addressing, and I do not think they will be addressed to enough people's satisfaction and the Union will come to an end, if not in 10 years then 25 maybe.

    But just because affection for the Union is low now, and that we are all in a bit of a constitutional fudge (or more of one at any rate) if No wins, does not mean that it is inevitable that it will remain at such a low ebb. There is still a chance that the Union can rise to the challenge and when the next constitutional conflict occurs it will be in a hardier state.

    As I say, I do not think that will happen, and in any case I think Yes will be triumphant now, let alone 10 years in a re-run. But Hodges attitude is as much an overreaction and panic as the response to this Yes lead poll which he criticizes.
  • Any entries that aren't between 0% and 100% will be deleted

    Given what the telegraph are reporting this afternoon, you might want to change that to 0% - 110%
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Yes 50.08

    Turnout 83.55
  • Yes 39.99%
    Turnout 78.17%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    RodCrosby said:

    Have predicted 52.83% for YES and 81.65% turnout. Looked at the SKY page http://news.sky.com/story/1336051/scotland-referendum-explore-the-voting-areas and noted all the registration totals.

    Interesting only 91% have registered in Edinburgh versus 97% in Glasgow...
    very
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Interesting that the postal vote returns are around the 90% level. That's at least 700,000 votes already lodged. I reckoned on an 80% turnout if there is more than 5% winning margin, first to 1.75 million votes succeeds.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. T, not sure if I'm still classed as an ardent unionist after the panic-stricken idiocy of recent days, but I backed Yes at 53%.

    Indeed. I was pretty ardently unionist a week or so ago and I just predicted a yes. But if we need to bribe Scotland with permanently higher public spending than in EWNI for them to stay in, then I don't want them. We'll lose some of our population and we won't look so nice on a map, but we can keep the same flag, still be the United Kingdom and still call ourselves British.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SeanT said:

    Question for all pb-ers, are there any ardent unionists who have predicted a YES? Or, more interestingly, are there any Nats who have predicted a NO?

    I can't find any of the latter on the graph.

    Want Yes politically and betting-wise, predicted No in comp. Not a Nat though.

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Without Scotland's vast distances, perhaps we could scrap car tax and put it onto petrol/diesel. And compensate Newport with Glasgow 1
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: In Dundee, the "City of Yes", around half of those I've talked to are No voters (often very shy). Worrying for Yes. #indyref
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    My sense of gloom expects YES to win.

    Would that be so gloomy? I'm starting to think a narrow no would be much worse. There is no way English conservatives will grant Scotland extra powers and extra money. There is a huge silence, being broken only by a few off messagers.

    When the promises founder, Scotland will be up in arms, rightly.

    Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.

    Because 50% of Scots and 80% of FUKers still want the union.

    That's the vast majority of people in the UK, and possibly, probably a majority even in Scotland.

    We shouldn't let the machinations of Alex Salmond and the incompetence of unionist politicians obscure this central fact.

    Agreed. If we can get through this hurdle (and it's unfortunately not certain we will), I think the Union will be OK. It won't be the same as before and the circumstances of the change are unfortunate. Many of us north of the Tweed and Solway will be just as aggravated by Alex Salmond's fake triumphalism as our cousins south of the border. Hopefully he will head off into well deserved retirement.

    Nevertheless change is necessary, even without the referendum. Let's try to sort it out as best we can.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Conservative MP Sir Christopher Chope just told the BBC News channel that he will attempt to block any proposed extra powers for Scotland. There's now only one realistic way to get extra powers for Scotland.

    If legislation that Mr Chope intended to block never passed, no Act of Parliament would have received the Royal Assent in the last four years.
    One of the regular malcontents, is he? Tiresome bunch, not least because their general attitudes means that even when they are right they are often ignored, because they're always predicting and promising things that never come to pass.


    By the way, SeanT and I have virtually identical predictions. Hmm. Has anyone seen us together in the same room?

    You ARE SeanT and I claim my £50

    I think we all suspected, deep down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    What on earth happened to the 10-11 "tip" for sub 80 and No ?

    Looks like its gone awry - still hope though, I'm banking on the teenagers being too lazy to get off their x-boxes.

    Earlier 65%+ bet is nailed on.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Telegraph reports on some fairly nasty intimidation including a pensioner handing out No leaflets being punched in the face.

    Also allegations of electoral fraud.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102194/Threats-intimidation-and-abuse-the-dark-side-of-the-Yes-campaign-exposed.html


    The ends justifying the means? Those injured in the path of righteousness shall be blessed after the rapture commences?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Telegraph reports on some fairly nasty intimidation including a pensioner handing out No leaflets being punched in the face.

    Also allegations of electoral fraud.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102194/Threats-intimidation-and-abuse-the-dark-side-of-the-Yes-campaign-exposed.html

    Jesus. An OAP punched in the face - surely Salmond will criticise this behaviour now? A call for calm would be what a true statesman would do.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    taffys said:

    My sense of gloom expects YES to win.

    Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.

    Dan Hodges is to journalism what Denis Healey was to politics. Whatever he says the opposite is certain to be true.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Another Better Together campaigner who spoke to the Telegraph said that pro-independence campaigners had surrounded him in a Glasgow suburb and asked questions such as “where do you live?” and “are you Scottish?”

    And they say it's not about anti-Englishness...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited September 2014
    kle4 said:

    taffys said:

    My sense of gloom expects YES to win.

    Would that be so gloomy? I'm starting to think a narrow no would be much worse. There is no way English conservatives will grant Scotland extra powers and extra money. There is a huge silence on the tory back benches, being broken only by a few off messagers until Friday/.

    When the promises founder, Scotland will be up in arms, rightly.

    Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.

    I'm gloomy as hell about the Union's prospects even in the event of NO winning, which I don't expect, but Hodges is just plain wrong in some of his thinking (shocking I know). Part of his argument seems to boil down to that the Union has had to fight so hard to justify itself, fight so desperately, means it is not worth anything, or in fact never really existed.

    If the Union is to survive (assuming for a moment No can win), then big changes will be required if it is to last a lot longer. The SNP will not be going anywhere. Wales might well get a bit more anxious too. England is getting increasingly concerned about what Scotland is being offered and it is not. These things need addressing, and I do not think they will be addressed to enough people's satisfaction and the Union will come to an end, if not in 10 years then 25 maybe.

    But just because affection for the Union is low now, and that we are all in a bit of a constitutional fudge (or more of one at any rate) if No wins, does not mean that it is inevitable that it will remain at such a low ebb. There is still a chance that the Union can rise to the challenge and when the next constitutional conflict occurs it will be in a hardier state.

    As I say, I do not think that will happen, and in any case I think Yes will be triumphant now, let alone 10 years in a re-run. But Hodges attitude is as much an overreaction and panic as the response to this Yes lead poll which he criticizes.
    A narrow "No" presents the best betting outcome for my current GE book though ^_~ (I think...)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hugh said:

    weejonnie said:

    As a small Royal Mail shareholder, I'm interested to know if anything has been said about its delivery obligations in an independent Scotland.
    In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
    Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?

    I can't guarantee this but I understand that IF Scotland becomes part of the EU then it MUST have a national post system in place. This will be horrendously expensive to a) set up and b) run. Since cash will be tight post independence I am pretty sure that Scotland will have no alternative to purchase a system 'off the peg' from a foreign owned and domiciled business (if any want to set it up risking being nationalised if they fall out with the Government)

    Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.

    This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
    Yeah Royal Mail will still be the postal service, but the Universal Service Obligation will probably go.

    Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.
    Weekly mail for the Highlands.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    Telegraph reports on some fairly nasty intimidation including a pensioner handing out No leaflets being punched in the face.

    Also allegations of electoral fraud.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102194/Threats-intimidation-and-abuse-the-dark-side-of-the-Yes-campaign-exposed.html

    Jesus. An OAP punched in the face - surely Salmond will criticise this behaviour now? A call for calm would be what a true statesman would do.
    WE had an 80 year old YES man beaten senseless and you twerps never even blinked , various other people assaulted etc. You are one eyed morons. A racist as well you and pauline from Mid Beds would get on well
  • It can't be coincidence, can it, for all four polls to have identical YES/NO split?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scientific...
    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: In Dundee, the "City of Yes", around half of those I've talked to are No voters (often very shy). Worrying for Yes. #indyref

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The prediction page is asking for a username and password, I signed up using my Google account OpenID - what should I put in? do I need ot create a non-Google based account and use that info?

    You shouldn't need to sign in at all - just follow the link from the main thread: enter your prediction and click Save.
    Weird, I'm getting An HTTP auth request from the server no matter what browser I use.
  • TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    weejonnie said:

    As a small Royal Mail shareholder, I'm interested to know if anything has been said about its delivery obligations in an independent Scotland.
    In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
    Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?

    I can't guarantee this but I understand that IF Scotland becomes part of the EU then it MUST have a national post system in place. This will be horrendously expensive to a) set up and b) run. Since cash will be tight post independence I am pretty sure that Scotland will have no alternative to purchase a system 'off the peg' from a foreign owned and domiciled business (if any want to set it up risking being nationalised if they fall out with the Government)

    Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.

    This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
    Yeah Royal Mail will still be the postal service, but the Universal Service Obligation will probably go.

    Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.
    Weekly mail for the Highlands.
    The SNP has already commited to renationalising the Scottish part of Royal Mail.

  • Sorry for being dumb - but Is 'chart lead' based on the mean average of predictions cast?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    50.43% for Yes and turnover at 87% from me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    sudden jump to YES on Betfair.

    News of ipsos mori?

    I think it just went "in play" - the "traded and available" range has shrunk dramatically.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Link?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Where? I'm seeing no hinting
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2014
    One of the regular malcontents, is he?

    I reckon there are plenty of them. And there will be a fair few English labour MPs worried too. UKIP will have a field day in labour constituencies if these powers and money are granted.

    There isn;t enough money for your services because your MP gave it to Scots. And the Scots MPs voting on your issues (while you can't vote on theirs) intend to keep it that way...

  • jimmyczz said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    weejonnie said:

    As a small Royal Mail shareholder, I'm interested to know if anything has been said about its delivery obligations in an independent Scotland.
    In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
    Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?

    I can't guarantee this but I understand that IF Scotland becomes part of the EU then it MUST have a national post system in place. This will be horrendously expensive to a) set up and b) run. Since cash will be tight post independence I am pretty sure that Scotland will have no alternative to purchase a system 'off the peg' from a foreign owned and domiciled business (if any want to set it up risking being nationalised if they fall out with the Government)

    Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.

    This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
    Yeah Royal Mail will still be the postal service, but the Universal Service Obligation will probably go.

    Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.
    Weekly mail for the Highlands.
    The SNP has already commited to renationalising the Scottish part of Royal Mail.

    And how will they afford that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014
    malcolmg said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Have predicted 52.83% for YES and 81.65% turnout. Looked at the SKY page http://news.sky.com/story/1336051/scotland-referendum-explore-the-voting-areas and noted all the registration totals.

    Interesting only 91% have registered in Edinburgh versus 97% in Glasgow...
    very
    This is a question that has no doubt be answered many times over the past few years, but then I am one who has never pretended to know about the politics or demographics of Scotland hence my thoughts on the matter being hopes and wishes only really (and, I really hope, that undermes my own prediction of a Yes win), but my understanding is Edinburgh leans No and Glasgow should be a shoo-in for Yes. Is that right? What about Edinburgh makes it more disposed to No, if I may ask?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Once we have enough votes, I wonder will the "Wisdom of Crowds" effect function? On that basis YES is looking at 47% -ish



  • Claim that three year old registered to vote in Scottish referendum in a "pro independence" area.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11094592/Concern-as-child-aged-three-registered-to-vote-in-referendum.html

    I wonder if the dead will also be voting as they do in Zimbabwe.
  • 56% Yes based on nothing more than my eyes in the housing schemes in Glasgow, sea of blue posters in windows.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Where? I'm seeing no hinting
    Me either.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The prediction page is asking for a username and password, I signed up using my Google account OpenID - what should I put in? do I need ot create a non-Google based account and use that info?

    You shouldn't need to sign in at all - just follow the link from the main thread: enter your prediction and click Save.
    Weird, I'm getting An HTTP auth request from the server no matter what browser I use.
    Very odd. Seems to work for others.

    Just to be sure here's the add prediction link again.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair certainly thinks there's a Yes poll about!
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    Once we have enough votes, I wonder will the "Wisdom of Crowds" effect function? On that basis YES is looking at 47% -ish



    I'm adding "Wisdom of Crowds" to my favourite phrases I've seen this Referendum along with; "Dog Whistle Nationalism".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    taffys said:

    One of the regular malcontents, is he?

    I reckon there are plenty of them. And there will be a fair few English labour MPs worried too. UKIP will have a field day in labour constituencies if these powers and money are granted.

    There isn;t enough money for your services because your MP gave it to Scots. And the Scots MPs voting on your issues (while you can't vote on theirs) intend to keep it that way...

    Oh on this issue I think he and regular troublemakers can and should make some traction. But if he is a part of the core Tory rebels, well, if you rebel against so many things eventually simple chance means you will hit on one which is popular/appropriate.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Assuming NO wins and regardless of margin size, if Cameron then announces that either DevoMax and EV4EL or some sort of subsidiarty-max will be enacted BEFORE May 2015, does anyone think that the Tories would get a majority next May?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    jimmyczz said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    weejonnie said:

    As a small Royal Mail shareholder, I'm interested to know if anything has been said about its delivery obligations in an independent Scotland.
    In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
    Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?

    I can't guarantee this but I understand that IF Scotland becomes part of the EU then it MUST have a national post system in place. This will be horrendously expensive to a) set up and b) run. Since cash will be tight post independence I am pretty sure that Scotland will have no alternative to purchase a system 'off the peg' from a foreign owned and domiciled business (if any want to set it up risking being nationalised if they fall out with the Government)

    Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.

    This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
    Yeah Royal Mail will still be the postal service, but the Universal Service Obligation will probably go.

    Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.
    Weekly mail for the Highlands.
    The SNP has already commited to renationalising the Scottish part of Royal Mail.

    And how will they afford that?
    Oil money, further cuts to the Scottish NHS and lots of borrowing.

    With regard to the latter, John Swinney let the cat out of the bag on Any Questions last week.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    weejonnie said:

    As a small Royal Mail shareholder, I'm interested to know if anything has been said about its delivery obligations in an independent Scotland.
    In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
    Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?

    I can't guarantee this but I understand that IF Scotland becomes part of the EU then it MUST have a national post system in place. This will be horrendously expensive to a) set up and b) run. Since cash will be tight post independence I am pretty sure that Scotland will have no alternative to purchase a system 'off the peg' from a foreign owned and domiciled business (if any want to set it up risking being nationalised if they fall out with the Government)

    Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.

    This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
    Yeah Royal Mail will still be the postal service, but the Universal Service Obligation will probably go.

    Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.
    Weekly mail for the Highlands.
    Doubt it. The private delivery companies are here every other day with parcels so they would probably carve up the mail delivery among them.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I wonder if the dead will also be voting as they do in Zimbabwe.

    You can just see this going the way of the hanging chad, can;t you? v. close result, allegations of ballot irregularities, both sides claiming victory, court cases dragging on for months, total confusion, sporadic lawlessness....
  • SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    YouGov gets a vote?

  • SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Where? I'm seeing no hinting
    It was a twitter rumour. Unconfirmed. Now others saying it's bollocks.

    What an incredibly feverish atmos.

    Betfair now back at 5.
    it was a RAMP
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Claim that three year old registered to vote in Scottish referendum in a "pro independence" area.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11094592/Concern-as-child-aged-three-registered-to-vote-in-referendum.html

    I wonder if the dead will also be voting as they do in Zimbabwe.

    Zimbabwe presumably got the idea from Westminster's management of the 1979 referendum. In that last, the dead all voted No. Admittedly they did not have Brad Pitt to keep them in order.

  • Just back from short trip to London. When sitting down there I was worried about the vote but back in Glasgow there just does not seem to be the numbers for Yes. They are very vocal the ones that exist but the general people I speak to you are all solid Nos even the ones I was not sure about. Yet to find a silent Yes. Maybe I am miscalculating the base of NEDs who are going to come out tomorrow to vote.

    PS Govan has only No Thanks stickers in the windows. Stuart was having a joke about how the Louden pub will vote tomorrow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2014

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The prediction page is asking for a username and password, I signed up using my Google account OpenID - what should I put in? do I need ot create a non-Google based account and use that info?

    You shouldn't need to sign in at all - just follow the link from the main thread: enter your prediction and click Save.
    Weird, I'm getting An HTTP auth request from the server no matter what browser I use.
    Very odd. Seems to work for others.

    Just to be sure here's the add prediction link again.
    Yup, def not working!

    http://i62.tinypic.com/2jcgfaq.jpg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    jimmyczz said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    YouGov gets a vote?

    In the future we won't bother to go through with actual elections, the polls will be almost as good and so we'll just go with that.

    I think a presidential candidate in south or central america recently stopped campaigning (and would have withdrawn if he legally could have) on the basis that polls showed he had no chance in the run off phase.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Nothing of note from Rupe' this afternoon..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Where? I'm seeing no hinting
    It was a twitter rumour. Unconfirmed. Now others saying it's bollocks.

    What an incredibly feverish atmos.

    Betfair now back at 5.
    Well, traded the dip quite happily.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    Betfair in turmoil again

    Panic blip.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov hinting at YES.

    Jesus. They're gonna vote YES.

    Where? I'm seeing no hinting
    It was a twitter rumour. Unconfirmed. Now others saying it's bollocks.

    What an incredibly feverish atmos.

    Betfair now back at 5.
    Really hoping Scotland votes No - a "Yes" vote is kind of spinning the betting roulette wheel for me... have quite a few lowish odds bets contingent on Dave staying and some long odds on SNP seats.

    Definitely would prefer a "No" vote on balance ^_~
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any markets on Gordo for FM in 2016 ?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    One of the regular malcontents, is he?

    I reckon there are plenty of them. And there will be a fair few English labour MPs worried too. UKIP will have a field day in labour constituencies if these powers and money are granted.

    There isn;t enough money for your services because your MP gave it to Scots. And the Scots MPs voting on your issues (while you can't vote on theirs) intend to keep it that way...

    UKIP can do a simple graph of expenditure in Scotland versus expenditure in the local region. And say it's because Ed Miliband/Nick Clegg/David Cameron continues to back a formula based on populations in the 1800s.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    I have gone for 83.42% turnout and 42.78% Yes.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Alistair said:

    Betfair certainly thinks there's a Yes poll about!

    What fun! Takes me back to 1992 with that Gallup eve of election poll that predicted a narrow Tory win (which they won comfortably). There had been a smattering of other Cons leads in a wave of Labour ones. It's uncannily like this. If there's a Yes poll around then at least one of the pollsters is going to be badly wrong, and perhaps they all are.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Chope the chump. As a pro-coalition centrist LD I'm sometimes asked why I don't join the Tories. Well apart from the fact I prefer the UK to be a positive member of the EU the antics of the likes of Chope and his fellow travellers on the right of that party never cease to amaze me.

    My prediction is a very tight race factoring in comments by realistic unionists Easteross and DavidL. Gordo might have just said enough to swing it narrowly to No. So I've gone for 49.4% Yes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Punching a partially sighted pensioner

    Classy from the Yes crowd.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    TGOHF said:

    Any markets on Gordo for FM in 2016 ?

    I hope so.. Wouldn't mind getting some money on such a bet.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AllyM said:


    I'm adding "Wisdom of Crowds" to my favourite phrases I've seen this Referendum along with; "Dog Whistle Nationalism".

    Yes, but unlike "Dog whistle nationalism", the Wisdom of Crowds actually does work.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Yes - 49.13 %

    Turnout - 79.91 %
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    Just realised that I could probably move the markets MYSELF with a well timed tweet.

    Ridiculously feverish.

    If you could give us 30 to 40 seconds heads up that would be grand.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The prediction page is asking for a username and password, I signed up using my Google account OpenID - what should I put in? do I need ot create a non-Google based account and use that info?

    You shouldn't need to sign in at all - just follow the link from the main thread: enter your prediction and click Save.
    Weird, I'm getting An HTTP auth request from the server no matter what browser I use.
    Very odd. Seems to work for others.

    Just to be sure here's the add prediction link again.
    Yup, def not working!

    http://i62.tinypic.com/2jcgfaq.jpg
    Very confusing. There is no server/HTTP authentication used for this.

    Have you tried the old faithful of clearing your cookies, exit/restart the browser, and trying again?

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Right PB chums, I'm off for a wee visit to my neighbours at ANTA, the posh fabrics and pottery along with my Rotary club chums. Be back in time for the 10pm polls.

    Have fun all of you.
  • 81.56% Yes
    50.29% Turnout

    Or was that the other way round? :)
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AllyM said:


    I'm adding "Wisdom of Crowds" to my favourite phrases I've seen this Referendum along with; "Dog Whistle Nationalism".

    Yes, but unlike "Dog whistle nationalism", the Wisdom of Crowds actually does work.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
    Interesting. I'll look into that.

    Only usually read Mafia books and the like but, I'm genuinely intrigued by "Wisdom of Crowds".

    I'm not sure though I'll look to read up on "Dog Whistle Nationalism".
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564


    By the way, SeanT and I have virtually identical predictions. Hmm. Has anyone seen us together in the same room?

    You ARE SeanT and I claim my £50

    You know what? I've had it with pb. No I am not betting 47 pence on whether Inverclyde's voting percentage is 84.1. I don't care about you morons who pretend you care, instead of spending your time in this ASTONISHING hotel in Balikpapan with FOUR balconies and THREE personal waitresses for every room where I'm just taking two minutes' break from my 26-year-old to pop a pill before going back for some more before spending MORE of my FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND REALS that I earned THIS WEEK when I sold my book to Brazil.

    Inverclyde's result is in? Enjoy, you sad gits.

    Heh.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I know it's repetative to say but Betfair is going mentalist at the moment
  • Socrates said:

    Jesus. An OAP punched in the face - surely Salmond will criticise this behaviour now? A call for calm would be what a true statesman would do.

    It is arguable that that behaviour, if it occurred, (a) involves serious violence against a person (b) the use of which was designed to intimidate a section of the public, and (c) was made for the purposes of advancing a political or ideological cause. If so, it is terrorism within the meaning of s. 1 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585


    By the way, SeanT and I have virtually identical predictions. Hmm. Has anyone seen us together in the same room?

    You ARE SeanT and I claim my £50

    You know what? I've had it with pb. No I am not betting 47 pence on whether Inverclyde's voting percentage is 84.1. I don't care about you morons who pretend you care, instead of spending your time in this ASTONISHING hotel in Balikpapan with FOUR balconies and THREE personal waitresses for every room where I'm just taking two minutes' break from my 26-year-old to pop a pill before going back for some more before spending MORE of my FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND REALS that I earned THIS WEEK when I sold my book to Brazil.

    Inverclyde's result is in? Enjoy, you sad gits.

    Heh.

    Do you mind it was SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND ;-p
  • Betfair all over the place, but generally come in on YES.
    Looks like minimal liquidity, however i.e. people know odds-shifting news is coming, but no idea which way...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    http://blog.oup.com/2014/09/scottish-independence-referendum-macbeth-shakespeare/

    Soemthing to read while waiting for the poll, perchance.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    The thing I'm looking forward to most of all...

    The term "knife-edge" disappearing for as long as is feasibly possible.
  • SeanT said:

    ipsos mori

    51N
    49Y


    Closerer and closerer.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    ipsos mori

    51N
    49Y

    Explains the betfair.
  • AllyM said:

    The thing I'm looking forward to most of all...

    The term "knife-edge" disappearing for as long as is feasibly possible.

    And "momentum", please.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STVNews: Final Ipsos-Mori poll for @STVNews: Yes 49% (+7) No 51% (-7) http://t.co/RE1zZBpXvz #ScotDecides http://t.co/6vZTqBRUlb
  • STV News @STVNews · 2m

    Final Ipsos-Mori poll for @STVNews: Yes 49% (+7) No 51% (-7) http://bit.ly/1r1cnJi #ScotDecides
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Scarily close, but yet another poll with no in front.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Socrates said:

    Jesus. An OAP punched in the face - surely Salmond will criticise this behaviour now? A call for calm would be what a true statesman would do.

    It is arguable that that behaviour, if it occurred, (a) involves serious violence against a person (b) the use of which was designed to intimidate a section of the public, and (c) was made for the purposes of advancing a political or ideological cause. If so, it is terrorism within the meaning of s. 1 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
    It was also a story from the Telegraph, and the victim "wished to remain anonymous".

    Astonishingly.

  • SeanT said:

    ipsos mori

    51N
    49Y

    Margin of error stuff! (and a welcome break after all the 52/48!)
This discussion has been closed.