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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Enter PB Indyref prediction competition as Panelbase becomes the fourth pollster to have it No 52, Yes 48
Welcome to PB’s Indyref prediction competition, you need to enter the % Yes will achieve, and the % turnout.
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Though doesn't make as interesting a headline as 'at least 4 pollsters the same'.
If you are using a computer with a mouse, you can hover over the graph line to see who made the entries (as the axis at the bottom will become too crowded to see).
I've a deep emotional attachment to this referendum. Will think this through.
Yes 103%
Turnout 104%
...not sure you can trust these Nats to run it evenly! :-)
Ladbrokes - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11
No EVS
I've been lurking here for the best part of three years - I even used to sporadically post on an old, sadly forgotten, account. Anyway, I thought I'd return to posting in time for arguably the most momentous political event of my lifetime.
Cheers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmkySNDX4dU
The Tories were the party of the Jacobites whereas the Whigs were the party of the Hanoverians.
By the way, SeanT and I have virtually identical predictions. Hmm. Has anyone seen us together in the same room?
Andy's statement can be boiled down to
Glagow(No) => Scot(No)
That implies
Scot(Yes) => Glasgow(Yes)
But certainly not
Glasgow(Yes) => Scot(Yes)
Glasgow going Yes is necessary but not sufficient for a Yes vote.
In theory, if it no longer had to deliver to all points tartan on pain of death, it could save a few groats.
Also, would an independent Scotland want to rely for its post on a foreign-owned and domiciled business?
T/O 88.3%
Turnout 79.90%
The dunderheids around here haven't got the faintest clue about Scottish demography. They neither know nor care. Which is absolutely fine by me. The current Betfair Yes price is 5.3, which is simply crazy.
- "If it is any closer than 60 NO 40 YES then I suspect it is going to be a bad night for NO."
Incidentally Easterross, the current Ladbrokes prices for North Lanarkshire are:
Yes 5/6
No 5/6
So, if it is a dead heat tomorrow night, just watch as the Betfair exchange goes absolutely bananas.
The details will still be available to determine if he is a winner at 103% Yes.
EDIT: noted new entry, so will ignore the 103.
Turnout: 81.75%
I have a few quid (from mid-June) on turnout above 75% at 5/6, so I'm feeling pretty confident.
Yes: 47.48%
Turnout: 86%
- "My take is Yes can't win unless Glasgow goes Yes. If Glasgow is 50/50 No wins by 2 to 5 points."
Then look at the Shadsy price:
Ladbrokes - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11
No EVS
Yes 46.1%
Turnover 87.2%
Turnout 88.6%
Turnout 76.44
I went for round numbers, because I'm a bit tired and forgot you were meant to use decimals.
Yes 53%, turnout 89%. Surprised the average turnout guess is a bit below this, but not surprised the general view is of a narrow No victory.
Edited extra bit: thanks to Mr. Shadsy for this.
Turnout 77.8%
https://www.facebook.com/ChristiansForIndependence/photos/pcb.731347250236394/731346486903137/?type=1
It's not just the pollsters....
Turnout: 87.49%
Turnout: 78.54%
I trust ICM a bit more than the others because of the higher Don't Know figures, although I realise different polling companies treat Don't Knows in different ways.
Yes: 51.3%
Turnout: 83.2%
The rose of all the world is not for me.
I want for my part
Only the little white rose of Scotland
That smells sharp and sweet - and breaks the heart.
Hugh MacDiarmid
Currently the Royal Mail is bound by an agreement to deliver any letter in the UK anywhere for a fixed price dependent on weight and speed of delivery, but not destination. As Scotland has 8% of the population but 40% of the land area, it is pretty obvious that the average distance a letter has to be delivered will increase (but will substantially decrease in England as the Royal Mail only has to deliver letters to Berwick Upon Tweed rather than Lerwick at the same price) and can/ will charge more for delivering letters to the Scottish Postal Service for onward delivery.
This will also reduce the loss-making areas of Royal Mail - so if the price hasn't shifted recently a small investment might be on the cards. (I am not an IFA).
Yes 47.5%
Turnout 82.8%
The average currently stands at 47.99% and 82.74%, so I feel comforted!
Despite the poll being 52/48 for no there is the following line
"37% (+9%) say that they expect most of their friends and family to vote Yes against 35% (-6%) who say they are mostly voting No."
Evidence of Shy No's?
Turnout 82.34%
I wonder what labour MPs will do...
But their sweet stuff is not great.
50.93% NO and 81.75% turnout
Result declared 10.15am. Cameron announces he’s saved the union 10.16am.
Easterross • Posts: 1,274
4:09PM
hamiltonace said:
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Note sure you can take Inverclyde as representative of Glasgow. Inverclyde is truly depressing place, no students and no middle class. The only similarity is that both vote Labour.
Have to disagree. There are 3 adjacent towns. Port Glasgow was the most industrial as its name suggests. Greenock is the mixed one, mainly working class. Gourock on the other hand is mostly middle class, private housing and much smaller than Greenock. You also have the Tory hinterland like Kilmacolm which is a small but very affluent village.
Presumably only the last entry will be counted - but that will be Mike's decision.
Absolutely crazy, but then everything else about this current vote and the fact it's taking place at all is crazy...
It will be a disaster if I win £50 of bets. I have never been in a bookies in my life.
Except locally, and on grounds of process not numerical closeness.
Makes sense if you think about it. Local numerical closeness is neither here nor there (you aren't electing a local representative), national would require a recount of all 32 areas.
For more serious offenders, the solar death ray or space cannon offer more permanent punishments.
Fortunately, Chope is not the only chump. Several Tory loons have been busy destroying "The Vow".
We just look on in wonder. They are doing our job for us!
Turnout 86 (.13)
Would that be so gloomy? I'm starting to think a narrow no would be much worse. There is no way English conservatives will grant Scotland extra powers and extra money. There is a huge silence on the tory back benches, being broken only by a few off messagers until Friday/.
When the promises founder, Scotland will be up in arms, rightly.
Dan Hodges is correct. The union is over. What's the point of pretending it isn't.
Poll 1:
Yes: 48 (+1)
No: 52 (-1)
Yes soars to all time high
Poll 2:
Yes: 48 (-1)
No: 52(+1)
Margin of Error Noise
Making a load of posties unemployed in the process, of course.