"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Fanny has more than one meaning, especially up here, and not just the unfortunate Miss Adams of Alton.
just caught up on Rupert's stance. Poor chap couldn't make up his mind who would win. He's gone soft.
Those 'reading the runes' saw a wavering in the past couple of days - having seen who some of the SNP's 'Yes' allies are.....
Scotland. Have to worry about some of Salmond's allies. Far left socialists and extreme greenies. Must change course to prosper if he wins.
SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels.
Looks like he finally got round to the small print.....and after Eck had a chat with him too.......
Those Twitter posts are a red herring. The "far left" will be of little influence if Yes wins. In anothe tweet, Murdoch salivated at the idea of backing right-wing libertarians after a Yes win. Cf Fox News.
As for runes, did you get the cloud and the battered chicken? Bizarre to people with noticeable intellect, perhaps not so bizarre to Sun readers.
Murdoch and Salmond share nothing in common except their dislike for Britain, their one time alliance was as fragile and opportunistic as the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.
So does the word "bitch" but I'd still consider it inappropriate as an insult to a woman. Especially one who wasn't doing anything wrong. We have far too few women on here and this sort of abuse doesn't help.
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Fanny has more than one meaning, especially up here, and not just the unfortunate Miss Adams of Alton.
I think the Yes bully tactics are going to backfire. It will just galvanise No voters tomorrow. Idiots are letting this historic opportunity to slip through their hands. I honestly don't understand what they are thinking.
A significant part of the YES campaign is motivated by hatred. Of England generally and of English Conservatives more specifically.
Its inevitable that among the wilder elements this hatred will manifest itself on local people they deem to be 'traitors'.
Thank you! I've been asked by someone from the NO campaign. I imagine we'll ask people who they voted for though I can't imagine who or what the information is for
Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so....
Things will clearly vary from area to area depending on what resources are and have been available but in Dundee we are not using cards (I think Labour will in some areas) to mark off no voters. For a campaign built from scratch with no data base or previous history it has just not been possible to do something like that and the resources have been better used elsewhere.
We will be monitoring turnout in various wards thought on the basis of polling information to be leaning strongly one way or another across the City and we will be relying on phone banks and door knocking to GOTV of known supporters.
My final prediction for this is 53:47 for no. If we have a competition I might add or subtract a couple of tenths for that.
Nice avatar.
My target is to call 500 people for GOTV tomorrow. I can worry about the phone bill later!
So. it's going to come down to the c.1.4m folk who didn't vote in the last 2 elections and the 300k newly registered voters since 2012. A great advert for democratic engagement whatever the result. It'll also provide the secondary satisfaction of seeing the tw@t who said elections aren't decided by people with mattresses in their gardens having his condescension stuffed where the the sun don't shine.
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
'They spoke out after leaked documents showed that Scotland’s health service is facing a “funding shortfall” of up to £450m in 2015-16, suggesting that deep cuts are likely after the referendum.
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Clearly, if they do vote YES, the Scots would be stark raving mad to entrust the negotiations to Salmond when they could be undertaken in their interest by the politician who knows more about the UK's finances than the rest of them put together! Isn't that so, Malcolm?
BTW, I was talking the other night to a Scot who's going to vote yes even though he expects the Scottish economy to tank for at least a generation. Heads and hearts, indeed.
Innocent, I would not trust Brown or Darling to run a bath. Two more duplicitous self enhancing losers I have never seen. They seem only to have a golden touch when it is for their own pockets.
Thank you, Malcolm. But you don't trust Salmond either! So who do you want to see leading the negotiations for "a country once again"? Yourself?
So just a bit of PR then. Why pay out on bets before the race is over? Especially when, with the best will in the world, the result is nowhere near certain.
Publicity
They say they are paying out a six figure sum...
The no price has been big odds on with the bookies for a long while. Let's say betfair Sportsbook were 1/6.... That means if they pay out £100,000 , £84,000 of that is the punters stake money, so it's only costing them £16,000
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Turnip head stick to posting racist remarks. Only a thick southern turnip would not understand the Scottish venacular. Only a racist homophobic sexist halfwit could have posted such tripe.
Education for you fanny - means stupid person and/or wimp
My target is to call 500 people for GOTV tomorrow. I can worry about the phone bill later!
Yes better not win by 500 votes ;-)
Thanks, really appreciate the confidence
Before I went up I was worried that people would say "you haven't got a vote, you've no business talking to us". But no one did. Quite a few people were obviously touched that people had crossed the border to campaign; I think those who think differently are incorrigible yeses.
My target is to call 500 people for GOTV tomorrow. I can worry about the phone bill later!
Yes better not win by 500 votes ;-)
Thanks, really appreciate the confidence
Before I went up I was worried that people would say "you haven't got a vote, you've no business talking to us". But no one did. Quite a few people were obviously touched that people had crossed the border to campaign; I think those who think differently are incorrigible yeses.
'They spoke out after leaked documents showed that Scotland’s health service is facing a “funding shortfall” of up to £450m in 2015-16, suggesting that deep cuts are likely after the referendum.
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Game,set and match to 'No'.
Those would be the SNP cuts under existing arrangements.
In Indy Scotland there would be no cuts, indeed increased spending, provided Scots do not mind paying higher taxes. Only so much money can be derived from sales of unicorn milk.
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
Whatever you decide, you must ensure you ring a Daily Mail reporter before you do it.
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
No problem - just park a car next to the house and wait till it goes on fire, and the window frames melt. Other people can be relied on to create a narrative of bricks and Yessers.
Admittedly I am not sure if the etiquette is to smash all the windows without posters for your side, or just the ones with opposition posters. This is a shocking uncertainty and will no doubt lead to the writing of many a book on how to conduct oneself in an indyref.
The other issue is to blame every bit of routine vandalism by the local neds on the opposing side. I remember the whining of a Unionist politician, and the shocked and indignant harrumphs, about vandalism to his constituency office. It comprised one Yes sticker, an inch wide or thereabouts, on the window glass, and [edit] evidently quite separately, plenty of paint spray slogans, which on examination turned out to be the local equivalent of "Young Mental Drylaw Toi". I know the Yes campaign is diverse, but it's not that diverse!
'They spoke out after leaked documents showed that Scotland’s health service is facing a “funding shortfall” of up to £450m in 2015-16, suggesting that deep cuts are likely after the referendum.
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Spanish PM has just said 'Scotland would have to apply' in Cortes - which Naughtie just put to Salmond on R4......
BBC bias!!!
No idea why this EU thing is still an issue. Salmond has been told on numerous occasions that there is a 5 year process. He accuses others of 'bluff' and 'bluster', but on this one he is just obviously doing just that.
Clearly, if they do vote YES, the Scots would be stark raving mad to entrust the negotiations to Salmond when they could be undertaken in their interest by the politician who knows more about the UK's finances than the rest of them put together! Isn't that so, Malcolm?
BTW, I was talking the other night to a Scot who's going to vote yes even though he expects the Scottish economy to tank for at least a generation. Heads and hearts, indeed.
Innocent, I would not trust Brown or Darling to run a bath. Two more duplicitous self enhancing losers I have never seen. They seem only to have a golden touch when it is for their own pockets.
Thank you, Malcolm. But you don't trust Salmond either! So who do you want to see leading the negotiations for "a country once again"? Yourself?
I am perfectly happy with Salmond, he has Scotland's best interests at heart. My concern is that he will include some of the Labour turnips to try and seem fair to those Labour voters who got YES over the line.
PS: I should of course have taken the bait , I would do as well if not better than any of them.
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
Whatever you decide, you must ensure you ring a Daily Mail reporter before you do it.
Very sensible, and very necessary, as I have not seen a single report of a brick through a window in a credible newspaper report. Of course, it is probably my fault for reading the Dailu and Sunday Herald.
I'm sticking to my long-term view of the result and will probably suffer for taking a view but I have said repeatedly it would start at 57-43 for No and despite all the noise nothing would really change. All I will add is that the noise has been very enjoyable,reminding me of running an acute psychiatric ward.Happy days!
@Carnyx "To window-smashing etiquette or the (admittedly unfortunate) ambiguity of demotic Scots? " I am not sure, does that make me a "don't know"? Apathy? Who cares?
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
Isn't it lovely to live in a country where a little light vandalism and crowd pushing are the worst it gets. There are countries not so far away where shooting political opponents, or beheading and crucifying them are the staple of political discourse.
So just a bit of PR then. Why pay out on bets before the race is over? Especially when, with the best will in the world, the result is nowhere near certain.
Publicity
They say they are paying out a six figure sum...
The no price has been big odds on with the bookies for a long while. Let's say betfair Sportsbook were 1/6.... That means if they pay out £100,000 , £84,000 of that is the punters stake money, so it's only costing them £16,000
That would be the maths for a 1/5 shot, surely?
Oh yeah! Pre 9am forgive me
Basically they can just back yes on their exchange and the "early payout" would cost them about £3k, but it sounds like they've given away a "six figure sum"
Shops in Scotland are apparently running out of stock of Buckfast, as people are buying to celebrate or drown their sorrows. I don't know how people drink the stuff, as it is horrible.
'They spoke out after leaked documents showed that Scotland’s health service is facing a “funding shortfall” of up to £450m in 2015-16, suggesting that deep cuts are likely after the referendum.
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Game,set and match to 'No'.
Those would be the SNP cuts under existing arrangements.
Channel 4 Fact Checked it:
The verdict The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
'Last week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies contrasted the planned NHS cuts of 1.2 per cent in Scotland in 2015/16 with an increase of 4.4 per cent in England.'
Suppose it's just scaremongering, bluff & bluster from the Institute for Fiscal Studies
So does the word "bitch" but I'd still consider it inappropriate as an insult to a woman. Especially one who wasn't doing anything wrong. We have far too few women on here and this sort of abuse doesn't help.
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Fanny has more than one meaning, especially up here, and not just the unfortunate Miss Adams of Alton.
I'm not even sure this Carlotta is a woman. You do realise the name comes from a well-known play ...?
@hucks67 It must be an acquired taste, a couple of my friends still drink the stuff occasionally. At the price, it is almost a "luxury" item, as it costs more than two bottles of "table paraffin" or indeed huge bottles of chemical cider.
@Carnyx "To window-smashing etiquette or the (admittedly unfortunate) ambiguity of demotic Scots? " I am not sure, does that make me a "don't know"? Apathy? Who cares?
I don't think the neighbours in the second photo of ths blog posting can be ersed either, but it will please Mr @foxinsoxuk:
'They spoke out after leaked documents showed that Scotland’s health service is facing a “funding shortfall” of up to £450m in 2015-16, suggesting that deep cuts are likely after the referendum.
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Game,set and match to 'No'.
Those would be the SNP cuts under existing arrangements.
Channel 4 Fact Checked it:
The verdict The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
I am not saying that the SNP would reverse the Scottish NHS cuts in iScotland, just that it could do so. The reality of austerity after Yes is that the cuts would be more draconian.
"The remainder of the UK could have to lend an independent Scotland as much as £100bn to avoid a calamitous recession north of the border, a group of economists warned yesterday.
Any suggestion of such a deal could lead to a rebellion by English MPs who are already frustrated by party leaders’ offer to spend more on Scotland if it stays in the union."
Shops in Scotland are apparently running out of stock of Buckfast, as people are buying to celebrate or drown their sorrows. I don't know how people drink the stuff, as it is horrible.
I'm off to a job interview (2nd interview for job I really want as an analyst at an anti money laundering firm). Wish me luck and play nicely! ✌️
Can anyone tell me what "anti money" is? Is it like alimony? Is it coming anywhere near my savings?
Anti-money is the thing that when it comes into contact with money causes an explosion and no money left at all. Maybe that is the Mrs. MAybe that is the Labour Party.
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Turnip head stick to posting racist remarks. Only a thick southern turnip would not understand the Scottish venacular. Only a racist homophobic sexist halfwit could have posted such tripe.
Education for you fanny - means stupid person and/or wimp
PS you fit it perfectly
Fannybaws even better fit imo, with the added benefit of denying the professional sanctimonious the opportunity to get on their high horses.
So does the word "bitch" but I'd still consider it inappropriate as an insult to a woman. Especially one who wasn't doing anything wrong. We have far too few women on here and this sort of abuse doesn't help.
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Fanny has more than one meaning, especially up here, and not just the unfortunate Miss Adams of Alton.
I'm not even sure this Carlotta is a woman. You do realise the name comes from a well-known play ...?
He is a pathetic whinging dumpling. Do we think he is a man just because he uses Socrates as a pet name. Too stupid to believe.
@Carnyx "To window-smashing etiquette or the (admittedly unfortunate) ambiguity of demotic Scots? " I am not sure, does that make me a "don't know"? Apathy? Who cares?
I don't think the neighbours in the second photo of ths blog posting can be ersed either, but it will please Mr @foxinsoxuk:
@hucks67 It must be an acquired taste, a couple of my friends still drink the stuff occasionally. At the price, it is almost a "luxury" item, as it costs more than two bottles of "table paraffin" or indeed huge bottles of chemical cider.
It is indeed a tipple for the upmarket and discerning ned. It is said that one can further gauge the socio-economic status of places such as Bearsden or Kelvin by the way in which the local offies keep their Buckie nicely frappe [how DOES one do accents on this thing?!] in the chiller for the customer in a hurry.
Oh well, better get to work, and the best of a good and peaceful day tomorrow to all of us in Scotland.
Having nearly come to blows with my neighbour over the Indy ref, I seek the knowledgeable guidance of PB. Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
Isn't it lovely to live in a country where a little light vandalism and crowd pushing are the worst it gets. There are countries not so far away where shooting political opponents, or beheading and crucifying them are the staple of political discourse.
Although to be honest the latter two practices seem worse in the abstract than they do when you use them in the same sentence as the words Tony Blair, Gordon Broon, etc.
So... if your brakes are on the verge of failing the team can't point that out to you? It's mental. I'm not an F1 driver, but I'm reasonably sure having brakes that work is an important part of driving the car.
Excellent article (if only they had covered the SNP who seem to be pulling off the trick of being both the establishment and "anti-politics"):
How and why do political parties struggle to ‘get’ anti-politics? They all nod in speeches and policy statements in the direction of public disenchantment with politics but fail to take tackling its causes seriously. UKIP seek to exploit it, the Tories want to wish it away, Labour under Miliband claim innocence and ineptness in their defence, while the Liberal Democrats misread it and think constitutional change is the answer.
Whilst the polls are all at 52-48 the datasets are very different and had the methodologies been the same the results would have varied markedly.
The failure to see origin of person polled is an issue as Scots have 8% English and polling companies consistently poll well above that and do not weight down despite a higher percentage feeling they want to be British first and Scottish second. Scots born are a majority for YES at this time in the polls.
I said many months ago YES would win the polling day but the postals were the issue and I still see that as the problem. The fear over pensions when none exists under a strong MSM campaign which did not allay it meant the 60-40 necessary for pensioners voting NO to win overall may just have been achieved.
After all, there is no threat to pensioners who have paid in and live in Spain or Oz now so why would those who live in Scotland be any different? My guess is 51-49 to NO based on women staying with NO, which had Sturgeon run the campaign last 3 months would in my view have been worth 2 or 3% at least a la Hillary Clinton and Julia Gillard.
I pity the poor history/politics students of the future who will be researching this historic occasion putting 2014 on the map of history for ever.They will be forced to read comments,not only on Pb,but the Grauniad and the DT.This would be a certain route to psychosis.
"Waterloo - Finally facing my Waterloo So how could I ever refuse I feel like I win when I lose -"
The boss of one of the biggest pollsters last night admitted that his industry may have got the referendum result completely wrong. Martin Boon, director of ICM, said the vote could be a ‘polling Waterloo’ if companies fail to predict the outcome. Recent forecasts suggest the result is on a knife edge. But Mr Boon said there was a ‘real danger’ to polling accuracy as data may have been corrupted.
The referendum reminds me a little of farmer's attitude towards sheep. 90% of the time they're woolly anonymous items that everyone ignores. Then for 1 month a year they become the focus of everyone's attention - then it goes back to normal.
I'm looking forward to normal service after Thursday.
YouGov will be about 10pm Ipsos-MORI - early evening
Hopefully No at 53-54% in both these (best we could possibly hope for) will settle the nerves a bit. 52/48 (once considerable Don't knows are removed) is scary and frightening this close to the day.
That said, it does feel that we're in a better place than on Black Monday last week when it looked like Yes had unstoppable momentum and the Union was certain to be lost. Listening to slippery Salmond evading every question from a perplexed (but ineffective) Naughtie on the drive in though has left me feeling queasy again. He's leading his nation on a merry dance...
Germany's wind power chaos should be a warning to the UK Germany has gone further down the 'renewables' path than any country in the world, and now it's paying the price
Did a wee bit of canvassing last night - in an estabblished "middle-class" area - and encountered two voluble "Yes" supporters. One (in fact two, a couple) very much persuaded by the NHS argument for voting Yes. The other seemed to think that the UK's indebtedness was a key reason for voting Yes (presumably believes that Scotland will somehow escape debt or that the oil will pay for it). "Scotland is a wealthy country".
The No people were simply instinctive - hate the idea of separation and divorce.
On the eve of independence, Scotland’s poet laureate pens a valedictory poem to the English people.
“O Arse-lickers chasing gongs, Chicken-hearted tossers. Pathetic creatures scared of your own shadows, Ha ha ha, big gob smacked shut. Sad sack Tory half-wits — You hyenas will chase money anywhere. Come on cretins, you can do it, Ask your mammy to help. You are fanny of the first order, Full of wind and piss. Stick your heads up your erchie, you wittering dimwits, Wobbly chicken-hearted wimps. No wonder England is down the cludgie. Hinge and Brackett are blubbing — Get the Kleenex. Doom and gloom, dread laden drudgery, Are you right in the head? Thick as mince, You turnips!”
Philip Davies @PhilipDaviesMP 10h For the record, I will not be voting to maintain an unfair funding settlement for Scotland whatever Messrs Cameron, Miliband and Clegg say
Three weeks since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
These questions need to be answered:
1) Why has Home secretary Teresa May taken no action against a police force which has collaborated with child rapists.
2) Why has Rotherham children's services not been placed in 'special measures' instead of remaining under the control of Joyce Thacker, who has admitted to the HoC Home Affairs Committee that she knowingly allowed child rapes to continue.
3) How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was taking place and why did she do nothing about it.
4) Why has Prime Minister David Cameron allowed at least three government departments to take no action.
Since the Rotherham report was published there is now likely to be five NEW child rape victims on the numbers given in it.
Can I recommend you save this, and then repost it on Monday when people will final pay attention to things other than Scotland...
Can some pb brainiac tell me how opinion pollsters deal with postal voters - i.e. those who have already voted? Are they filtered out and excluded? Are they asked what they voted and added in?
Or are they just asked what they would vote if they had a second go?
*confused in Camden*
I'm pretty sure they aren't allowed to ask how people have voted.. but I don't think I have seen a question in a poll saying 'have you voted already'. Perhaps they aren't filtered at all, and just asked the normal questions.
Whilst the polls are all at 52-48 the datasets are very different and had the methodologies been the same the results would have varied markedly.
The failure to see origin of person polled is an issue as Scots have 8% English and polling companies consistently poll well above that and do not weight down despite a higher percentage feeling they want to be British first and Scottish second. Scots born are a majority for YES at this time in the polls.
I said many months ago YES would win the polling day but the postals were the issue and I still see that as the problem. The fear over pensions when none exists under a strong MSM campaign which did not allay it meant the 60-40 necessary for pensioners voting NO to win overall may just have been achieved.
After all, there is no threat to pensioners who have paid in and live in Spain or Oz now so why would those who live in Scotland be any different? My guess is 51-49 to NO based on women staying with NO, which had Sturgeon run the campaign last 3 months would in my view have been worth 2 or 3% at least a la Hillary Clinton and Julia Gillard.
I think you may be right about Sturgeon. At the end of the day, Alex Salmond is divisive and seems overweening - for all his talents as an outstanding retail politician. He got us to this point but may prove unable to get across the line. Women voters don't really go for that alpha male assertiveness and are probably not too keen on all the evident testosterone being pumped out at the moment.
So does the word "bitch" but I'd still consider it inappropriate as an insult to a woman. Especially one who wasn't doing anything wrong. We have far too few women on here and this sort of abuse doesn't help.
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
Indeed!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
I'd forgotten about that. This morning I have been blaming the bedtime cheese for last night's amazing dream in which I found myself agreeing with Gordon Brown.
Yes - he was a man transformed on his own turf, eloquent, fluent, persuasive - very different from the brooding sulk in No 10......
LOL.........fanny alert
Fanny has more than one meaning, especially up here, and not just the unfortunate Miss Adams of Alton.
Rumours that pb.com is going to have all women threads are completely baseless...
So... if your brakes are on the verge of failing the team can't point that out to you? It's mental. I'm not an F1 driver, but I'm reasonably sure having brakes that work is an important part of driving the car.
The drivers have quite a lot of information in their cars which comes up on the steering wheel. Though it always amazes me how they can deal with all the various data and controls they have, while driving at 200 mph.
If the car is in a dangerous condition e.g brakes, they can still warn about that. What they are trying to do is stop too much interference from the pit lane, which I am sure some drivers would be happy with. Some of the drivers have complained before about the race engineers giving them too much information and have asked them to shut up.
Comments
Just noticed this. Any suggestion that it was masterminded by Mr Darling is, very sensibly, explicitly excluded.
I guess the bullying thugs are copying their leaders.
Its inevitable that among the wilder elements this hatred will manifest itself on local people they deem to be 'traitors'.
Not much of a screaming Yes mob there, methinks.
My target is to call 500 people for GOTV tomorrow. I can worry about the phone bill later!
Which of us is supposed to be "bricking" whose windows? And do we have to smash all of them or just the ones with posters?
The leaked NHS documents, which were presented to a meeting of health board chief executives and civil servants last month, say the closure of services in Scotland will have to be considered. “The status quo and preservation of existing models of care are no longer an option given the pressing challenges we face,” they read.'
Game,set and match to 'No'.
Only a racist homophobic sexist halfwit could have posted such tripe.
Education for you
fanny - means stupid person and/or wimp
PS you fit it perfectly
"Are the mods going to put up with misogynistic insults to one of our few female posters?"
I'd say this particular female poster is made of sterner stuff. She used to be in marketing!
Before I went up I was worried that people would say "you haven't got a vote, you've no business talking to us". But no one did. Quite a few people were obviously touched that people had crossed the border to campaign; I think those who think differently are incorrigible yeses.
In Indy Scotland there would be no cuts, indeed increased spending, provided Scots do not mind paying higher taxes. Only so much money can be derived from sales of unicorn milk.
No problem - just park a car next to the house and wait till it goes on fire, and the window frames melt. Other people can be relied on to create a narrative of bricks and Yessers.
Admittedly I am not sure if the etiquette is to smash all the windows without posters for your side, or just the ones with opposition posters. This is a shocking uncertainty and will no doubt lead to the writing of many a book on how to conduct oneself in an indyref.
The other issue is to blame every bit of routine vandalism by the local neds on the opposing side. I remember the whining of a Unionist politician, and the shocked and indignant harrumphs, about vandalism to his constituency office. It comprised one Yes sticker, an inch wide or thereabouts, on the window glass, and [edit] evidently quite separately, plenty of paint spray slogans, which on examination turned out to be the local equivalent of "Young Mental Drylaw Toi". I know the Yes campaign is diverse, but it's not that diverse!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/brown-condemns-snp-for-keeping-nhs-cuts-secret.25351094
The SNP are liars who play the vulnerable for fools.
PS: I should of course have taken the bait , I would do as well if not better than any of them.
This is the problem! We never get a definitive answer to the important stuff.
All I will add is that the noise has been very enjoyable,reminding me of running an acute psychiatric ward.Happy days!
"To window-smashing etiquette or the (admittedly unfortunate) ambiguity of demotic Scots? "
I am not sure, does that make me a "don't know"?
Apathy? Who cares?
Basically they can just back yes on their exchange and the "early payout" would cost them about £3k, but it sounds like they've given away a "six figure sum"
The verdict
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/
'Last week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies contrasted the planned NHS cuts of 1.2 per cent in Scotland in 2015/16 with an increase of 4.4 per cent in England.'
Suppose it's just scaremongering, bluff & bluster from the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Ipsos-MORI - early evening
Jack's ARSE predicts a Bob Dole score - either the ARSE or the pollsters are in for a shocker.
It must be an acquired taste, a couple of my friends still drink the stuff occasionally.
At the price, it is almost a "luxury" item, as it costs more than two bottles of "table paraffin" or indeed huge bottles of chemical cider.
http://mentalcrumble.com/blog/scottish-independence-ahmm-wee-word-mr-cameron992014
http://www.cityam.com/1410916055/bank-warns-scots-would-need-100bn
"The remainder of the UK could have to lend an independent Scotland as much as £100bn to avoid a calamitous recession north of the border, a group of economists warned yesterday.
Any suggestion of such a deal could lead to a rebellion by English MPs who are already frustrated by party leaders’ offer to spend more on Scotland if it stays in the union."
'Turnip head stick to posting racist remarks. Only a thick southern turnip would not understand the Scottish venacular.'
Have to hand it to you,your an excellent ambassador for The Seriously Nasty party.
Oh well, better get to work, and the best of a good and peaceful day tomorrow to all of us in Scotland.
Which are you?
Please ignore the question if you think it impertinent.
Banned "- Warning of brake-wear or temperatures (from Japan onwards)."
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9472706/fia-give-further-clarity-on-radio-clampdown-whats-allowed-and-what-isnt
So... if your brakes are on the verge of failing the team can't point that out to you? It's mental. I'm not an F1 driver, but I'm reasonably sure having brakes that work is an important part of driving the car.
How and why do political parties struggle to ‘get’ anti-politics? They all nod in speeches and policy statements in the direction of public disenchantment with politics but fail to take tackling its causes seriously. UKIP seek to exploit it, the Tories want to wish it away, Labour under Miliband claim innocence and ineptness in their defence, while the Liberal Democrats misread it and think constitutional change is the answer.
http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/09/17/parties-and-anti-politics/
twitter.com/Pete_Spence/status/511477357572784128/photo/1
The failure to see origin of person polled is an issue as Scots have 8% English and polling companies consistently poll well above that and do not weight down despite a higher percentage feeling they want to be British first and Scottish second.
Scots born are a majority for YES at this time in the polls.
I said many months ago YES would win the polling day but the postals were the issue and I still see that as the problem.
The fear over pensions when none exists under a strong MSM campaign which did not allay it meant the 60-40 necessary for pensioners voting NO to win overall may just have been achieved.
After all, there is no threat to pensioners who have paid in and live in Spain or Oz now so why would those who live in Scotland be any different?
My guess is 51-49 to NO based on women staying with NO, which had Sturgeon run the campaign last 3 months would in my view have been worth 2 or 3% at least a la Hillary Clinton and Julia Gillard.
So how could I ever refuse
I feel like I win when I lose -"
The boss of one of the biggest pollsters last night admitted that his industry may have got the referendum result completely wrong.
Martin Boon, director of ICM, said the vote could be a ‘polling Waterloo’ if companies fail to predict the outcome.
Recent forecasts suggest the result is on a knife edge. But Mr Boon said there was a ‘real danger’ to polling accuracy as data may have been corrupted.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758565/Tories-warn-Cameron-bloodbath-extra-cash-Scotland-Pledge-maintain-controversial-public-spending-formula-branded-minute-bribe.html#ixzz3DYiknYuq
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
I'm looking forward to normal service after Thursday.
That said, it does feel that we're in a better place than on Black Monday last week when it looked like Yes had unstoppable momentum and the Union was certain to be lost. Listening to slippery Salmond evading every question from a perplexed (but ineffective) Naughtie on the drive in though has left me feeling queasy again. He's leading his nation on a merry dance...
Pollster Peter Kellner from Yougov: am I absolutely sure that no is slightly ahead? "No I'm not"
60-40 for No then.
It's ticked up 7-8 points in the last couple of weeks.
Germany's wind power chaos should be a warning to the UK
Germany has gone further down the 'renewables' path than any country in the world, and now it's paying the price
Unemployment figures out shortly - wouldn't be surprised if rUK outperforms Scotland as uncertainty looms large.
The No people were simply instinctive - hate the idea of separation and divorce.
Interesting, the motivators.
“O Arse-lickers chasing gongs,
Chicken-hearted tossers.
Pathetic creatures scared of your own shadows,
Ha ha ha, big gob smacked shut.
Sad sack Tory half-wits —
You hyenas will chase money anywhere.
Come on cretins, you can do it,
Ask your mammy to help.
You are fanny of the first order,
Full of wind and piss.
Stick your heads up your erchie, you wittering dimwits,
Wobbly chicken-hearted wimps.
No wonder England is down the cludgie.
Hinge and Brackett are blubbing —
Get the Kleenex.
Doom and gloom, dread laden drudgery,
Are you right in the head?
Thick as mince,
You turnips!”
For the record, I will not be voting to maintain an unfair funding settlement for Scotland whatever Messrs Cameron, Miliband and Clegg say
Tom Bradby is obviously not happy a man.
Claimant Count falls below one million.
Headline unemployment likely to fall below two million in October
Unemployment in Scotland is down to 6% - below UK average. Scotland doing well as part of UK #BetterTogether
Wages up too..
If the car is in a dangerous condition e.g brakes, they can still warn about that. What they are trying to do is stop too much interference from the pit lane, which I am sure some drivers would be happy with. Some of the drivers have complained before about the race engineers giving them too much information and have asked them to shut up.