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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four final polls published, two more to come, and it looks
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four final polls published, two more to come, and it looks as though NO might have just edged it
Yesterday the other bit of Betfair, the one that operates like a traditional bookie with the firm fixing the odds, announced that it was paying out on NO winning bets. This part of the firm accounts for a very small slice of its business and serious punters don’t go near. That they only had to fork out a “six figure sum” says a lot.
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"Unity with maximum self-determination sends a powerful message to a world torn by identity conflicts that it is possible to respect our differences while living and working together. This is the great challenge of our time. The Scots can show us how to meet it."
http://www.glasgowsouthandeastwoodextra.co.uk/news/scottish-headlines/bill-clinton-urges-scots-to-stay-1-3543846
X-ray vision, the ability to fly, time travel ?
Oh yes, and whilst the SNP leader said to Andrew Marr on Sunday that he’d been holding preliminary accession talks with other EU countries, representatives of France, Spain and Belgium have told this newspaper that they’d heard nothing from the Scottish Government.
Somebody’s not telling the truth here. You choose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11100819/Does-Salmond-know-what-our-friends-are-saying.html
......but yes, it will never be enough....
Salmond has offered a utopia without problems to those who vote YES. To many of YES voters everything will be perfect and go exactly the way Salmond has claimed. When that doesn't occur and things go wrong (as inevitably some things will) those people are going to be very, very angry....
As I've said before, in many ways I think a YES vote is now the better of the two options however YES has been sold in a way that will result in many YES votes being rather annoyed by the reality.
Scuffles broke out and insults were hurled on Tuesday as the battle for Scotland’s future descended into its most acrimonious day of political fighting.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-alex-salmond-accused-of-campaign-of-lies-on-future-of-nhs-9736662.html
twitter.com/BjCruickshank/status/511992402794799106/photo/1
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758514/The-Seriously-Nasty-Party-With-one-day-damning-evidence-bullying-intimidation-voters-Scots-nationalists-just-ask-Miliband.html
"The Yes campaign's bullying and intimidation is worse than anything ITV's Tom Bradby saw while reporting on the Troubles in Northern Ireland.....
Further acts of intimidation have been reported by the No camp across Scotland, including:
Hundreds of campaign boards have been daubed with offensive graffiti or destroyed;
Homes with ‘No Thanks’ posters have been pelted with eggs and one householder in Edinburgh had ‘traitor’ etched into his front door;
Farmers have received anonymous phone calls saying their livestock will be set loose unless they take down campaign boards
Nationalists have bragged on Facebook about ripping down No signs and posted videos of them stamping on the posters
Pro-union canvassers been called ‘loyalist scum’ and ordered to hand over details of supporters so their ‘houses can be burned down’.... "
In Edinburgh, Richard Hickson, 57, had the word ‘coward’ carved into his front door after putting up a ‘No Thanks’ posters......When he did not take down the poster following the act of vandalism, a glass of urine was left outside his house.....
Pro-union voters have endured stone-throwing, been called traitors and faced threats that their houses will be torched.
Many are now said to be too scared to show their support for fear of reprisals that might follow a defeat for the nationalists in tomorrow’s vote.
Nice
I've no idea what it involves but if I'm on the front page of the Mail on Friday morning waving a bloodied handkerchief I'll know I've made a bad decision
twitter.com/The_SSP_/status/511975012656746496/photo/1
twitter.com/Mrscaldy/status/511994110157529088/photo/1
twitter.com/notarealswan/status/511963111327145986/photo/1
twitter.com/Irish_Fart14/status/511840034929258497/photo/1
"Good luck! Who are you "doing the exits" for?"
Thank you! I've been asked by someone from the NO campaign. I imagine we'll ask people who they voted for though I can't imagine who or what the information is for
In a significant blow to the first minister's currency plans, Hunter said: "On the narrow question of currency, there's no question that the way we are currently is best for business. Any other option is going to have costs, uncertainties and risks."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/16/scottish-businessman-sir-tom-hunter-rejects-alex-salmond-sterling-currency
MI5 for sure....
"Afaik it is used for "door knocking" - no point in going round to the homes of people who have already voted - so it will create a list of "no" voters who have not yet voted to encourage them to do so...."
That sounds more interesting. So I will be doing my bit for the union!
However googling the guys name with or without "beaten up" added draws a complete blank, I can find nothing linked to, not even on the rentatrot sites. Which is odd, as I would expect them to be shouting it from the rooftops.
Sorry but some corroboration is needed.
Edit: and PB has become part of the establishment! Huzzah!
Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade....
We will be monitoring turnout in various wards thought on the basis of polling information to be leaning strongly one way or another across the City and we will be relying on phone banks and door knocking to GOTV of known supporters.
My final prediction for this is 53:47 for no. If we have a competition I might add or subtract a couple of tenths for that.
A week or so ago Malcolm claimed a Yes shop had been firebombed.
Turned out it was:
- an empty shop with Yes posters on it
- a bin outside the shop which had been set on fire
- leaving the shop, and posters, undamaged.
Basically he'll post any old Nat rubbish, he's either a fool or a knave - or possibly both....
"Did you catch the Gordon Brown interview last night - worth watching - puts the current generation in the shade...."
I did and as you suggest in a different class to what we have now. More to the point it showed what Salmond looks like when he takes on the big boys....
@StephanieFraser: Passer by just alerted us to our torched sign. #freespeech #indyref #nothanks http://t.co/NDGbnnfbkJ
barricadespolling stations.just caught up on Rupert's stance. Poor chap couldn't make up his mind who would win. He's gone soft.
Overall, does the postal vote percentage correlate with the on-the-day percentage?
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03040/170914-MATT-web_3040908a.jpg
Scotland. Have to worry about some of Salmond's allies. Far left socialists and extreme greenies. Must change course to prosper if he wins.
SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels.
Looks like he finally got round to the small print.....and after Eck had a chat with him too.......
Exclude medal winning athletes and grand slam winning captains.
Offensive and stupid.
BTW, I was talking the other night to a Scot who's going to vote yes even though he expects the Scottish economy to tank for at least a generation. Heads and hearts, indeed.
And once you've lost, perhaps you might ask yourself whether your infantile abuse helped your cause.....
The photo of Alistair Darling on today's front page makes him look quite pleasant; the one of Alec Salmond guffawing is quite typical and will probably appeal to those who already like him and annoy those who don't.
But the pictures and articles included in today's coverage (Yes are "indy" mood to party, Ed Miliband gets chased away from somewhere) suggest a mild pro-Yes message.
Or does it come down to saying nothing other than "keep reading the Sun", playing it very safe, trying not to upset anyone too much and risk a fall in circulation?
What do other people think?
The weather's good. My prediction remains that No will get 54% and that turnout will be 83%.
I'd be interested to hear other people's predictions :-)
* PV turnout is about 10-15 points above turnout on the day
* Nearly all PVs that are cast go in quickly. So that 80 will probably only change to 83-84.
Given that apparently only 20% of the total referendum vote had PVs, that figure suggests to me that total turnout will be in the 75-80 range. But it's possible that referendum dynamics will be different and the closeness of the polls will pull people out on the day. Certainly I wouldn't bet on it excedding 85%.
"erchies"?
I'm not sure the usual rules about posting votes early will apply this time, as so many people have seemed to struggle to make up their minds. Perhaps a larger chunk have waited to see more of the arguments.
The Scots punch above their weight in all sorts of ways---in Philosophy, research, engineering and so forth.
But with whom do we associate this "revolution"?
Salmond and a bunch of Yahoos.
Especial thanks to DavidL for his calm, witty exploration of doorstep politics. Good luck to the Ls for a satisfying day tomorrow.
As for runes, did you get the cloud and the battered chicken? Bizarre to people with noticeable intellect, perhaps not so bizarre to Sun readers.
Now back to your comments. The Scottish papers have done very poorly this year, on the whole, even by paper standards in general. One factor is likely to be the fact that they have been so overwhelmingly unionist - the decline of the Scotsman, compared to the Herald, has been very noticeable. (No doubt the same would have been true if they had been 100% hard Yes.)
The [daily] Herald is still very much unionist in news and editorial and some comment (though that odd editorial yesterday is a bit on the verge of fence-sitting) but it has some excellent columnists who have moved much more to Yes in recent weeks, and the Sunday Herald is very much pro-indy. Guess which newspaper has shown a 25% increase in sales year on year? Yes, the SH. I'd guess that the Sun is simply aware of the need not to tee off as near as dammit to half of its readers whatever side it takes, and has also taken note of the SH circulation news.
These questions need to be answered:
1) Why has Home secretary Teresa May taken no action against a police force which has collaborated with child rapists.
2) Why has Rotherham children's services not been placed in 'special measures' instead of remaining under the control of Joyce Thacker, who has admitted to the HoC Home Affairs Committee that she knowingly allowed child rapes to continue.
3) How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was taking place and why did she do nothing about it.
4) Why has Prime Minister David Cameron allowed at least three government departments to take no action.
Since the Rotherham report was published there is now likely to be five NEW child rape victims on the numbers given in it.
Not long till D-Day. And immediately afterwards, the next constitutional crisis! [Either negotiations for separation or the politicians getting slammed for utter disregard towards England].
Still, at least there's the Singapore Grand Prix this weekend to distract us from such things.
They say they are paying out a six figure sum...
The no price has been big odds on with the bookies for a long while. Let's say betfair Sportsbook were 1/6.... That means if they pay out £100,000 , £84,000 of that is the punters stake money, so it's only costing them £16,000