Any Labour people looking at Miliband having to cancel his Edinburgh walkabout because he got drowned out - and fearing for the 2015 General Election campaign?
Sunil For hopefully the penultimate time Labour would still be ahead without Scotland, it is UKIP who would benefit most
HYUFD Scotland staying maximises the chances of Ed winning next year Scotland leaving maximises the chances of Ed failing to win next year (with the added bonus of the Tories ditching Dave and choosing a less elitist leader).
Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1
Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
Santiago Man, are you a bitter ex-pat? Tell us how the British government has spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome. Certainly, if Scotland votes No the cost to the English taxpayer will indeed be incalculable.
In your dreams little Englander. Even city analysts Investec told us that Scotland's GDP was 10% higher than England's per capita. If there's a No vote the deep southward drift of our capital will continue fattening the pompous sucklings a little longer.
There is a nice piece in Guardian which sums matters up well:
Can't believe The Sun isn't even sticking up for the continuation of Britain. What's the bloody point of them then?
Murdoch has always been anti British.
Murdoch believes this country should be his good whipping boy and doesn't feel like his enterprises should have any accountability to the British state. When we dared to look at his nefarious dealings, he took a deep dislike for Britain and wants to screw us. It's about time we implemented some proper regulations about how big a share any one person can have ownership over our media landscape.
Nastiness from one side - establishment bricking it. Nastiness from the other side - perfectly acceptable, naturally. A fair assessment I have no doubt.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
It was extremely ill conceived as is accepted by most historians as it left the Greys with blown horses right in front of the French lines. The fact that they suffered 50% casualties and did very little to change the course of the battle is a good indication of how impetuous and ill conceived it was.
Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1
Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
This is an outrageous case. Very drunk guy and very drunk girl have sex. She definitely consented (she'd texted her mate confirming it), but because she was intoxicated, her consent meant nothing and he got kicked out of university:
Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1
Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
I am sure the French might disagree with you on that one.
Sunil As I have also pointed out Scotland is the only UK region the Tory vote share rose in the Euro elections, so the trend may even be running against you on that argument too.
However, adding a tiny percentage difference to the chances of a Tory led government are not even in my view the minutest bit comparable to the destruction of our union and nation, the satisfaction taken by our enemies abroad and the economic calamity that would follow
Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
UKIP's last paper on the subject proposed a Federal UK with 4 subordinate home nation parliaments/assemblies with the House Of Lords abolished being replaced by the Federal Parliament.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
Any Labour people looking at Miliband having to cancel his Edinburgh walkabout because he got drowned out - and fearing for the 2015 General Election campaign?
If I were a Labour strategist, I would be seriously worried about the way Labour has run the No campaign. If this is an example of how things would run for a Miliband GE campaign with Douglas Alexander at the helm, there were will be some very happy faces in CCHQ.
For a Labour leader to be greeted with such scorn in a country which last time round elected more than 40 Labour MPs is a very bad sign.
Add in to that the many failures of the No campaign and you have some very worrying signs for Labour. Very worrying indeed.
TimB That 1980 referendum was mainly hit by a huge gaffe by the Yes camp, and the 52-48 polls tonight are still showing a larger margin for No than it got in Quebec in 1995, and 19 years later Quebec is still in Canada. Though I would agree devomax, English votes for English laws and more English regional assemblies beyond London and a more Federal settlement may be the inevitable result
Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1
Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
I am sure the French might disagree with you on that one.
On this one the British, Irish, Dutch and Germans overruled the French. It shows what positive engagement in europe can achieve!
In 1980 early polls had Yes in the lead or close to it, but PQ Cabinet Minister Lisa Payette attacked female No supporters, including the Liberal leader's wife as 'Yvettes', a docile girl in a school manual, and Yes never recovered. No held numerous rallies of 'Yvettes' women which mobilised a huge female No vote
Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
Its always been the case that the South East, Eastern, East Midlands and South West regions have always had the lowest per capita PESA figures going back to the beginning of Barnett. I think its no coincidence that UKIP's growth is has been driven by those regions. Its not the only factor but its a fairly significant one even so.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
Even though Eastern England and South Eastern England are probably some of the highest revenue providers. And we have a Tory Prime Minister, elected off the backs of these regions, who is selling them out as a bribe to keep Scotland in the union. I'm fine with more powers being given over, as that doesn't come at the expense of England, but with taxpayer cash it's another matter.
I would guess that Hertfordshire and Essex are particularly poorly done by, because they get grouped in regionally with East Anglia, which is poorer and more spread out, so probably gets more cash.
Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
Monbiot is a misanthrope. I guess England would be included, but maybe no more so than anywhere else.
He is the elite though, even though I agree with some of his environmental offerings
Sunil As I have also pointed out Scotland is the only UK region the Tory vote share rose in the Euro elections, so the trend may even be running against you on that argument too.
However, adding a tiny percentage difference to the chances of a Tory led government are not even in my view the minutest bit comparable to the destruction of our union and nation, the satisfaction taken by our enemies abroad and the economic calamity that would follow
HYUFD what do you mean "destruction"? The constituent nations of the UK will still be there come Friday morning.
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
It was extremely ill conceived as is accepted by most historians as it left the Greys with blown horses right in front of the French lines. The fact that they suffered 50% casualties and did very little to change the course of the battle is a good indication of how impetuous and ill conceived it was.
A cite of just who these "most historians" are would be nice. As for changing the course of the battle - the French were on the verge of winning the battle when the cavalry charged. They had reached the British ridge, the defending forces - mostly Dutch at that point, and outnumbered three or four to one - were breaking apart and an attempt to launch a counter attack with British troops failed when General Picton was killed at the head of his men. The cavalry charge shattering the French corps at the moment of victory and driving the survivors back to the French lines bought vital time. It was the last chance Napoleon had to win the battle before the Prussians arrived - leading elements of Ziethen's Corps had started to arrive even as the French were routed - and the cavalry took it away from him. Of course they took heavy casualties, which would have been reduced if they'd shown greater discipline, but they did their job.
Any thoughts on how the West Lothian Question will be answered if Scotland votes NO?
It will be fudged, as ever. Cameron really is weak on such issues, he's had nearly four and a half years to deal with this - he's hardly likely to tackle it now is he?
In the last week we have seen the true colours of ZANU-SNP, I fear the nationalist thugs will now resort to armed struggle if they cannot win by democratic means.
Settle down now - nationalists know even a No win is not the end for the cause, they have increased their chances of independence steadily over decades. If they cannot get it this time, they will get another chance in, say, 10 years, why would they jeopardize that?
Also, they may well still win by democratic means of course.
Quicker than that. When the economy turns down at the end of next year, even if Yes don't win on Thursday, then that will be the final catalyst to get them over the line as they'll have any number of complaints to list about unfair / unjust treatment from Westminster.
Am thinking that the Yes bubble has been slightly pricked over the past week. Interesting info from JackW re: that large borders poll of a thousand showing 30% yes there, when they really need to be on 37/38% for a dead heat. Head is saying we will get a no vote (spiral of silence no voters) whilst the heart is saying yes (superior Yes organisation).
Not too much longer for the suspense to be resolved either way. On the markets GBPUSD has filled the gap at 1.6310 today back to where it had the big drop between Friday close and Sunday night open the weekend before last. Looking at re-entering this short here.
Does anyone know if we will get an exit poll released immediately at 10pm on Thursday on any of the national TV networks similar to a GE these days? GBPUSD and other GBP crosses will be interesting to view at that time if so! Not a trading market then as so many stops will get run by the big boys at that time that its not worth risking your hard earned capital.
Still unable to access the previous thread? FPT. Pong, you and me both, a close result will not even begin to start healing the splits this Indy Referendum has caused.
I hope these polls are wrong and Scots vote decisively one way or the other. For everyones sake.
ChrisA, absolutely agree, there are no words to describe how I feel about Salmond & Co right now after the damage they have caused with their dishonest campaign built on the back nationalism. And to those that now think that UKIP is the answer to your grievances down South, take note, the politics of nationalism don't come without a very big price. Where as before it might be your politics that divided you from some of your friends and family, at least the great range of political choice diluted the fervour to a simmer. But when a party moves into divide and capitalise on pushing the electorate into a its them or us position, its not same. No, it becomes far more nasty and sinister.
Salmond and Farage both claim to present an alternative the Westminster elite, that is the democratic powerhouse that encompasses a huge range of views from right across the political spectrum right across the whole UK. Remember, that great country that has created an amazing 300 hundred year history. Salmond and the SNP want to build a barrier at the Scottish border, UKIP want to build a new border at the English Channel towards Europe. And as the last couple of threads have shown, they now want to capitalise on creating yet further divisions within UK, just as they have seen the SNP do up here. Well, as someone experiencing it up here like many of the mainstream media, its not all its cracked up to be and its turning pretty nasty.
Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
Monbiot is a misanthrope. I guess England would be included, but maybe no more so than anywhere else.
He is the elite though, even though I agree with some of his environmental offerings
Interesting point and perhaps not without merit. The Guardian does come across as self-righteous however he often does strike many of us as an independent thinker and that is something to be celebrated - an asset for England. I can tell you that his article above will resonate with the thinking of hundreds of thousands of Scots - for all that that's worth..
UKIP's last paper on the subject proposed a Federal UK with 4 subordinate home nation parliaments/assemblies with the House Of Lords abolished being replaced by the Federal Parliament.
On the separate issue of the West Lothian Question, it was the Labour party who implemented Devolution into their heartlands in Scotland and Wales with a referendum they have so far continued to refuse the whole UK on our relationship in Europe. And they still remain the only main political party who continues to use their Scottish and Welsh MP's as Lobby fodder to bolster their vote in the HoC's on policy or legislation that only effects England.
This current problem doesn't need any big solution, other than the Leader of the Labour Party to make the honest decision to ask his Whips to make sure that his Welsh and Scottish MP's remain in their seats in the HoC's when a vote is on something that will only effect the constituents of those MP's based in England. The joke shouldn't be that there is more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's, it should be that the Labour party has been getting away with dishing out more democracy through devolution to the rest of the UK while using Scottish and Welsh Labour MP's to bolster their vote in the one part of the UK they don't represent!
And if the usual suspects in the Conservative party and the right leaning media possessed an astute neurone in their collective brains right now. They would realise that the solution isn't necessarily an English Parliament, or to automatically blame Cameron and bow to the threat of UKIP on the EU in the hope of a quick fix. UKIP is never the right answer. No, its going after the Labour party, and shaming them into stopping this cynical abuse of a very clear loop hole they created in our current UK wide democracy which is fuelling legitimate resentment.
Still unable to access the previous thread? FPT. Pong, you and me both, a close result will not even begin to start healing the splits this Indy Referendum has caused.
I hope these polls are wrong and Scots vote decisively one way or the other. For everyones sake.
ChrisA, absolutely agree, there are no words to describe how I feel about Salmond & Co right now after the damage they have caused with their dishonest campaign built on the back nationalism. And to those that now think that UKIP is the answer to your grievances down South, take note, the politics of nationalism don't come without a very big price. Where as before it might be your politics that divided you from some of your friends and family, at least the great range of political choice diluted the fervour to a simmer. But when a party moves into divide and capitalise on pushing the electorate into a its them or us position, its not same. No, it becomes far more nasty and sinister.
Salmond and Farage both claim to present an alternative the Westminster elite, that is the democratic powerhouse that encompasses a huge range of views from right across the political spectrum right across the whole UK. Remember, that great country that has created an amazing 300 hundred year history. Salmond and the SNP want to build a barrier at the Scottish border, UKIP want to build a new border at the English Channel towards Europe. And as the last couple of threads have shown, they now want to capitalise on creating yet further divisions within UK, just as they have seen the SNP do up here. Well, as someone experiencing it up here like many of the mainstream media, its not all its cracked up to be and its turning pretty nasty.
Alex Salmond entirely split his country and caused bitter and long lasting divisions. A more odious politician never drew breath in the UK.
We'll never agree about the merits of Alex Salmond. But he has been proved right in the fact that the appeal of an independent Scotland is EMOTIONAL, and the scaremongering BT campaign simply can't get their heads around that. Yes, I've argued a rational case for independence but that isn't the primary appeal. Of course I don't condone any bad apples on either side of the debate, such as those harassing the Sky reporter wearing a No shirt in Dundee (although it was a pretty stupid stunt to pull all the same, but that's Sky political coverage for you). From my vantage point visiting Edinburgh, Cowdenbeath and Dunkeld last weekend, it all seemed perfectly good natured and I spoke to people from both sides. The people voting yes weren't at all anti-English that I spoke too, they just want what they perceive to be best for the future of Scotland.
Good night all - less than 48 hours to go now before all is revealed? Or will the result still be in doubt at 3/4am in the morning with the last of the 32 polling centres to come in (Western Isles?!) That would be fun!!
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
Speaking of West Lothian, I think it's going to be one of the closest results on Thursday night/Friday morning.
Am surprised we haven't heard a peep from Tam Dalyell in the campaign - or have we? I haven't heard of any intervention from him - is he still in good health at the ripe old age of 82?
YES Vote 40% - 45% band down from 4.1 earlier today to 3.5 currently. So in terms of probability it's up from 24.4% to 28.6%. I still think it's a value bet, especially after today's violence, but please do your own research.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
I thought there was Chipping Barnet and Friern Barnet as well.
Some of my ancestors lived in East Barnet. One was a councillor who dropped dead after making a speech against Conscription in 1907...
On the separate issue of the West Lothian Question, it was the Labour party who implemented Devolution into their heartlands in Scotland and Wales with a referendum they have so far continued to refuse the whole UK on our relationship in Europe. And they still remain the only main political party who continues to use their Scottish and Welsh MP's as Lobby fodder to bolster their vote in the HoC's on policy or legislation that only effects England.
This current problem doesn't need any big solution, other than the Leader of the Labour Party to make the honest decision to ask his Whips to make sure that his Welsh and Scottish MP's remain in their seats in the HoC's when a vote is on something that will only effect the constituents of those MP's based in England. The joke shouldn't be that there is more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's, it should be that the Labour party has been getting away with dishing out more democracy through devolution to the rest of the UK while using Scottish and Welsh Labour MP's to bolster their vote in the one part of the UK they don't represent!
And if the usual suspects in the Conservative party and the right leaning media possessed an astute neurone in their collective brains right now. They would realise that the solution isn't necessarily an English Parliament, or to automatically blame Cameron and bow to the threat of UKIP on the EU in the hope of a quick fix. UKIP is never the right answer. No, its going after the Labour party, and shaming them into stopping this cynical abuse of a very clear loop hole they created in our current UK wide democracy which is fuelling legitimate resentment.
Ah a Scot telling us English what we should and shouldn't want in terms of democracy. How ironic.....
Your solution does not stop people like Gordon Brown becoming Chancellor (or Danny Alexander as Chief Sec To The Treasury) and deciding how much money we English get to spend on specific devolved areas of government. Whats the point of having English only votes when a Scot has got hold of the purse strings?
You would have to ban Welsh/ Scottish MP's from the vast majority of Ministerial roles including Prime Minister / Chancellor / Chief Sec To The Treasury / Home Secretary etc etc etc. The reality is there is only one realistic solution that gives England equality with the other Home Nations and that is an English Parliament and the only party currently proposing that are UKIP. So UKIP is the answer.
Of course there is an alternative and that is to abolish the Scottish/ Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies (breaching the Good Friday Agreement as you go). Somehow I don't think that will work.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
I thought there was Chipping Barnet and Friern Barnet as well.
Some of my ancestors lived in East Barnet. One was a councillor who dropped dead after making a speech against Conscription in 1907...
East Barnet, New Barnet, High Barnet. Not all of Barnet falls within Herts either.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex"
I did suggest that there should be a prize competition on PB.com, but clearly Shadsy, etc. weren't listening. Come to think of it we haven't had a worthwhile bookie sponsored competition here for some time.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex"
I stand corrected, does that also apply to Romford and Barking etc.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
Very good Sunil
Why thank you!
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex"
I stand corrected, does that also apply to Romford and Barking etc.
I guess it would apply to all addresses nationwide!
@hunchman You just don't get it, just like the Labour Party didn't get it that they hadn't won the arguments on the economy back in 1992. For years, those flash mobs shadowed Margaret Thatcher chanting for her removal in an attempt to drown out the hard economic facts that she delivered. It always looked terrible on the news, especially when so many of the electorate saw their lives and personal circumstances improving on the ground as the UK economy strengthened. It seems crazy now, but I had so many nursing friends who had no problem accessing their first mortgage to buy that first one/two bedroom flat in cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh! Try finding those same people today.
And then John Major got on his soap box in 1992 to protect that economic legacy against the might of a Labour party under Kinnock. Someone who wanted a more socialist distribution of the spoils of economic growth, but while decrying how we achieved it! And we all know what happened in that election as a result, there were a hell of a lot of shy Tory voters who took one look at the Labour Utopia being promised and thought no thanks.
But hell, how do you admit that you are siding with the No1 evil enemy of Socialism of the working class as a staunch Labour voter? And all because you don't fancy taking the risk they are wrong and it might put your own job security, mortgage, pension, savings and overall personal financial security at risk as a result? Just look at the SNP/Yes promises of an instantly more prosperous Scotland, and one that is fairer, more equal, and how they claim they will be able end to end poverty in Scotland (although Sturgeon did concede that wouldn't happen overnight!). You get the drift, the Labour party desperately wanted to get the Tories out of power in 1992, and they thought they were going to do it on the back of very similar arguments. Right now in Scotland, there has been the usual moves and arguments to try to present this Indy Referendum as a way to finally get the Tories out of Scotland and its politics forever.
Would you as a Labour voter, then find it easy to admit that you hadn't suffered quite as much under this Tory Coalition Government as much as the SNP/Lab spin would have you believe. And that more importantly, the risk of an Independent Scotland might just put your new found personal job or financial security in the current economic recovery at risk despite a Tory led Coalition at Westminster? We are in a situation where some voters might hate the Tories, but they love the security the current recovery has delivered. Neither the SNP or the current Labour party Leadership have a similar track record of delivery. ctd
Ed Miliband tried to copy the John Major strategy recently, and he failed as the Leader of the Opposition because he had no back story of economic improvement or stability to sell to the electorate. Have you seen the ever increasing economic lead Cameron and Osborne have over Miliband and Balls when it comes to the economy in the polls?
But then a few weeks ago, Jim Murphy decided to take his Better Together campaign onto the streets very successfully, only, he was able to imitate Major rather than Miliband because he was fighting the SNP on the back of the record of the current Coalition Government at Westminster. Says it all really, only sour note was the Labour Party strategy on the NHS biting them on the behookie when the SNP/Yes tried to copy their scare tactics.
I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?
But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.
Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.
I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?
But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.
Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.
Thanks Peter, I stuck my predictions up first, and then my arguments on why I got there second. I still believe that it will be the under 24's, the women vote and the over 55's that will deliver a comfortable win for the No vote in a very high turnout in the end.
I also posted on the last thread about why I thought there might be a real possibility of a Shy No vote in the current polling, both by phone or online. I have clearly elaborated on this in my posts on the current thread. If I am proved wrong, fair enough. I will take it on the nose, along with the usual abuse I get on here, and from the usual suspects who only ever note their opponents failures, but never their predication successes.
I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?
But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.
Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.
Comments
Unless Scotland voting YES causes our entire island to be consumed by the Ocean!
http://news.sky.com/story/1337090/passions-running-high-in-scotlands-yes-city
Scotland leaving maximises the chances of Ed failing to win next year (with the added bonus of the Tories ditching Dave and choosing a less elitist leader).
Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
They've wrecked banking and business; might as well smash the rest of the place up.
In your dreams little Englander. Even city analysts Investec told us that Scotland's GDP was 10% higher than England's per capita. If there's a No vote the deep southward drift of our capital will continue fattening the pompous sucklings a little longer.
There is a nice piece in Guardian which sums matters up well:
How the media shafted the people of Scotland
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
In 1995 the vote was 49.42% voting Yes, and 50.58% voting No.
If No wins on Thursday this may be the beginning of a process rather than the end of one.
Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:
How the media shafted the people of Scotland
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
I suppose I can keep track of time by updating PB after each 100 calls... What will you be up to on the day?
Good night all.
http://www.businessinsider.com/occidental-sexual-assault-2014-9
However, adding a tiny percentage difference to the chances of a Tory led government are not even in my view the minutest bit comparable to the destruction of our union and nation, the satisfaction taken by our enemies abroad and the economic calamity that would follow
http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2011/09/ukip-now-supports-devolution.html
For a Labour leader to be greeted with such scorn in a country which last time round elected more than 40 Labour MPs is a very bad sign.
Add in to that the many failures of the No campaign and you have some very worrying signs for Labour. Very worrying indeed.
Is this an omen?
I would guess that Hertfordshire and Essex are particularly poorly done by, because they get grouped in regionally with East Anglia, which is poorer and more spread out, so probably gets more cash.
"My formula is a terrible mistake" and "a national embarassment".
It's been in place since 1978, and Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have pledged to keep it going.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11100400/My-funding-formula-for-Scotland-is-a-terrible-mistake-Lord-Barnett-admits.html
He is the elite though, even though I agree with some of his environmental offerings
Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
Am thinking that the Yes bubble has been slightly pricked over the past week. Interesting info from JackW re: that large borders poll of a thousand showing 30% yes there, when they really need to be on 37/38% for a dead heat. Head is saying we will get a no vote (spiral of silence no voters) whilst the heart is saying yes (superior Yes organisation).
Not too much longer for the suspense to be resolved either way. On the markets GBPUSD has filled the gap at 1.6310 today back to where it had the big drop between Friday close and Sunday night open the weekend before last. Looking at re-entering this short here.
Does anyone know if we will get an exit poll released immediately at 10pm on Thursday on any of the national TV networks similar to a GE these days? GBPUSD and other GBP crosses will be interesting to view at that time if so! Not a trading market then as so many stops will get run by the big boys at that time that its not worth risking your hard earned capital.
FPT.
Pong, you and me both, a close result will not even begin to start healing the splits this Indy Referendum has caused. ChrisA, absolutely agree, there are no words to describe how I feel about Salmond & Co right now after the damage they have caused with their dishonest campaign built on the back nationalism. And to those that now think that UKIP is the answer to your grievances down South, take note, the politics of nationalism don't come without a very big price. Where as before it might be your politics that divided you from some of your friends and family, at least the great range of political choice diluted the fervour to a simmer. But when a party moves into divide and capitalise on pushing the electorate into a its them or us position, its not same. No, it becomes far more nasty and sinister.
Salmond and Farage both claim to present an alternative the Westminster elite, that is the democratic powerhouse that encompasses a huge range of views from right across the political spectrum right across the whole UK. Remember, that great country that has created an amazing 300 hundred year history. Salmond and the SNP want to build a barrier at the Scottish border, UKIP want to build a new border at the English Channel towards Europe. And as the last couple of threads have shown, they now want to capitalise on creating yet further divisions within UK, just as they have seen the SNP do up here. Well, as someone experiencing it up here like many of the mainstream media, its not all its cracked up to be and its turning pretty nasty.
Aug 17th: 3.0%
Aug 24th: 3.5%
Aug 31st: 3.8%
7th Sep: 3.0%
14th Sep: 4.2%
This current problem doesn't need any big solution, other than the Leader of the Labour Party to make the honest decision to ask his Whips to make sure that his Welsh and Scottish MP's remain in their seats in the HoC's when a vote is on something that will only effect the constituents of those MP's based in England. The joke shouldn't be that there is more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's, it should be that the Labour party has been getting away with dishing out more democracy through devolution to the rest of the UK while using Scottish and Welsh Labour MP's to bolster their vote in the one part of the UK they don't represent!
And if the usual suspects in the Conservative party and the right leaning media possessed an astute neurone in their collective brains right now. They would realise that the solution isn't necessarily an English Parliament, or to automatically blame Cameron and bow to the threat of UKIP on the EU in the hope of a quick fix. UKIP is never the right answer. No, its going after the Labour party, and shaming them into stopping this cynical abuse of a very clear loop hole they created in our current UK wide democracy which is fuelling legitimate resentment.
I will vote for whoever pledges to welsh on this English-Tory-Money-For-Scotch-Labour-Votes disgrace.
Even, god help me, if that means UKIP. I am that pissed off.
http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/record-expansion-antarctic-sea-ice-confounds-climate-scientists/
or this:
http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/researchers-find-major-west-antarctic-glacier-melting-geothermal-sources/
Do pigs fly?
Good night all - less than 48 hours to go now before all is revealed? Or will the result still be in doubt at 3/4am in the morning with the last of the 32 polling centres to come in (Western Isles?!) That would be fun!!
Good night this time!
So in terms of probability it's up from 24.4% to 28.6%. I still think it's a value bet, especially after today's violence, but please do your own research.
(for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4899/indyref-predictions?page
Some of my ancestors lived in East Barnet. One was a councillor who dropped dead after making a speech against Conscription in 1907...
Your solution does not stop people like Gordon Brown becoming Chancellor (or Danny Alexander as Chief Sec To The Treasury) and deciding how much money we English get to spend on specific devolved areas of government. Whats the point of having English only votes when a Scot has got hold of the purse strings?
You would have to ban Welsh/ Scottish MP's from the vast majority of Ministerial roles including Prime Minister / Chancellor / Chief Sec To The Treasury / Home Secretary etc etc etc. The reality is there is only one realistic solution that gives England equality with the other Home Nations and that is an English Parliament and the only party currently proposing that are UKIP. So UKIP is the answer.
Of course there is an alternative and that is to abolish the Scottish/ Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies (breaching the Good Friday Agreement as you go). Somehow I don't think that will work.
Not all of Barnet falls within Herts either.
Come to think of it we haven't had a worthwhile bookie sponsored competition here for some time.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2756567/Is-omen-referendum-The-cloud-looks-like-map-UK-Scotland-taken-away.html
However, that approach doesn't seem to fit Lord Ashcroft, as it understates Lab slightly and overstates LDs slightly.
EDIT compared to His Lordship's stated numbers.
"A goldfish in Australia is recovering from surgery after a life-threatening tumour was removed from its brain in a "high-risk" operation.
George, whose owner lives in Melbourne, was put under general anaesthetic for the $200 (£125) procedure.
Dr Tristan Rich, who carried out the operation, told Melbourne's 3AW radio station that the fish was now "up and about and swimming around"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/29210991
You just don't get it, just like the Labour Party didn't get it that they hadn't won the arguments on the economy back in 1992. For years, those flash mobs shadowed Margaret Thatcher chanting for her removal in an attempt to drown out the hard economic facts that she delivered. It always looked terrible on the news, especially when so many of the electorate saw their lives and personal circumstances improving on the ground as the UK economy strengthened. It seems crazy now, but I had so many nursing friends who had no problem accessing their first mortgage to buy that first one/two bedroom flat in cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh! Try finding those same people today.
And then John Major got on his soap box in 1992 to protect that economic legacy against the might of a Labour party under Kinnock. Someone who wanted a more socialist distribution of the spoils of economic growth, but while decrying how we achieved it! And we all know what happened in that election as a result, there were a hell of a lot of shy Tory voters who took one look at the Labour Utopia being promised and thought no thanks.
But hell, how do you admit that you are siding with the No1 evil enemy of Socialism of the working class as a staunch Labour voter? And all because you don't fancy taking the risk they are wrong and it might put your own job security, mortgage, pension, savings and overall personal financial security at risk as a result? Just look at the SNP/Yes promises of an instantly more prosperous Scotland, and one that is fairer, more equal, and how they claim they will be able end to end poverty in Scotland (although Sturgeon did concede that wouldn't happen overnight!). You get the drift, the Labour party desperately wanted to get the Tories out of power in 1992, and they thought they were going to do it on the back of very similar arguments. Right now in Scotland, there has been the usual moves and arguments to try to present this Indy Referendum as a way to finally get the Tories out of Scotland and its politics forever.
Would you as a Labour voter, then find it easy to admit that you hadn't suffered quite as much under this Tory Coalition Government as much as the SNP/Lab spin would have you believe. And that more importantly, the risk of an Independent Scotland might just put your new found personal job or financial security in the current economic recovery at risk despite a Tory led Coalition at Westminster? We are in a situation where some voters might hate the Tories, but they love the security the current recovery has delivered. Neither the SNP or the current Labour party Leadership have a similar track record of delivery. ctd
But then a few weeks ago, Jim Murphy decided to take his Better Together campaign onto the streets very successfully, only, he was able to imitate Major rather than Miliband because he was fighting the SNP on the back of the record of the current Coalition Government at Westminster. Says it all really, only sour note was the Labour Party strategy on the NHS biting them on the behookie when the SNP/Yes tried to copy their scare tactics.
There are moments when I feel the world is going totally mad and when I saw the above headline in today's Times was just one such moment.
But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.
Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.
With respect, the earlier thread has gone AWOL (blame TSE!)
There has been a distinct lack of optimism from the Yes brigade on here tonight. I wonder if that's significant.
Only one of whom has Scottish residency.
YES have scooped 100% of his postal vote.
(sticking my neck out there!)
I also posted on the last thread about why I thought there might be a real possibility of a Shy No vote in the current polling, both by phone or online. I have clearly elaborated on this in my posts on the current thread. If I am proved wrong, fair enough. I will take it on the nose, along with the usual abuse I get on here, and from the usual suspects who only ever note their opponents failures, but never their predication successes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04k1d54/scotland-decides-the-dimbleby-interviews
Brown in particular is impressive in defence of the union.
the last day of referendum bollocks !!