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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » IndyRef – we move into the closing day of the campaign

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Any Labour people looking at Miliband having to cancel his Edinburgh walkabout because he got drowned out - and fearing for the 2015 General Election campaign?
  • Can't believe The Sun isn't even sticking up for the continuation of Britain. What's the bloody point of them then?

    The island of Britain will still be around on Friday morning!

    Unless Scotland voting YES causes our entire island to be consumed by the Ocean!
  • SKY news walk the streets of Dundee in a No T-shirt:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1337090/passions-running-high-in-scotlands-yes-city
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 I don't think those leading the cavalry charge at Waterloo will be voting on Thursday sadly!

    I always said the eligibility rules were a fix up!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Speedy Agree, though the domino effect for separatism in Europe, and even Canada and elsewhere could be significant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Richard Tyndall Weren't they massacred by Napoleon's lancers? Nonetheless we still won the battle together
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunil For hopefully the penultimate time Labour would still be ahead without Scotland, it is UKIP who would benefit most

    HYUFD Scotland staying maximises the chances of Ed winning next year
    Scotland leaving maximises the chances of Ed failing to win next year (with the added bonus of the Tories ditching Dave and choosing a less elitist leader).
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun
    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1

    Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
    No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.

    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
  • Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.

    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    TUD Those it sells are mainly to working class Labour voters, ie the key swing voters of this referendum
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Can't believe The Sun isn't even sticking up for the continuation of Britain. What's the bloody point of them then?

    Murdoch has always been anti British.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    Highly likely.

    They've wrecked banking and business; might as well smash the rest of the place up.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    Me too


  • Santiago Man, are you a bitter ex-pat? Tell us how the British government has spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome. Certainly, if Scotland votes No the cost to the English taxpayer will indeed be incalculable.

    In your dreams little Englander. Even city analysts Investec told us that Scotland's GDP was 10% higher than England's per capita. If there's a No vote the deep southward drift of our capital will continue fattening the pompous sucklings a little longer.

    There is a nice piece in Guardian which sums matters up well:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
  • RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    He hopes there is.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It might be worth remembering that the 1980 Quebec referendum voted 60-40 to stay in Canada.

    In 1995 the vote was 49.42% voting Yes, and 50.58% voting No.

    If No wins on Thursday this may be the beginning of a process rather than the end of one.
  • Eek, that's a seriously nasty front page story for the Mail. Scotland we be torn in two by this.

    Yeh, shows you how the establishment are bricking it with the loss of their cash cow!

    Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Can't believe The Sun isn't even sticking up for the continuation of Britain. What's the bloody point of them then?

    Murdoch has always been anti British.
    Murdoch believes this country should be his good whipping boy and doesn't feel like his enterprises should have any accountability to the British state. When we dared to look at his nefarious dealings, he took a deep dislike for Britain and wants to screw us. It's about time we implemented some proper regulations about how big a share any one person can have ownership over our media landscape.
  • DavidL: I was going to say it's my pleasure, but it feels more like duty.

    I suppose I can keep track of time by updating PB after each 100 calls... What will you be up to on the day?
  • Can't believe The Sun isn't even sticking up for the continuation of Britain. What's the bloody point of them then?

    I wonder why Murdoch didn't back independence? Too close to call and he's hedging his bets......?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Nastiness from one side - establishment bricking it. Nastiness from the other side - perfectly acceptable, naturally. A fair assessment I have no doubt.

    Good night all.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited September 2014
    Random said:



    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.

    It was extremely ill conceived as is accepted by most historians as it left the Greys with blown horses right in front of the French lines. The fact that they suffered 50% casualties and did very little to change the course of the battle is a good indication of how impetuous and ill conceived it was.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Random said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun
    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1

    Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
    No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.

    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
    An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Eek, that's a seriously nasty front page story for the Mail. Scotland we be torn in two by this.

    Yeh, shows you how the establishment are bricking it with the loss of their cash cow!

    Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
    Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This is an outrageous case. Very drunk guy and very drunk girl have sex. She definitely consented (she'd texted her mate confirming it), but because she was intoxicated, her consent meant nothing and he got kicked out of university:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/occidental-sexual-assault-2014-9
  • Random said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun
    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1

    Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
    No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.

    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
    An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
    I am sure the French might disagree with you on that one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Sunil As I have also pointed out Scotland is the only UK region the Tory vote share rose in the Euro elections, so the trend may even be running against you on that argument too.

    However, adding a tiny percentage difference to the chances of a Tory led government are not even in my view the minutest bit comparable to the destruction of our union and nation, the satisfaction taken by our enemies abroad and the economic calamity that would follow
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    If a Conservative government does not exist to defend the country at all costs, what is the purpose of a Conservative government at all!
  • Blueberry said:

    Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.

    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    UKIP's last paper on the subject proposed a Federal UK with 4 subordinate home nation parliaments/assemblies with the House Of Lords abolished being replaced by the Federal Parliament.

    http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2011/09/ukip-now-supports-devolution.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    Of course anyone who riots will be showing their absolute contempt for democracy.
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
  • Any Labour people looking at Miliband having to cancel his Edinburgh walkabout because he got drowned out - and fearing for the 2015 General Election campaign?

    If I were a Labour strategist, I would be seriously worried about the way Labour has run the No campaign. If this is an example of how things would run for a Miliband GE campaign with Douglas Alexander at the helm, there were will be some very happy faces in CCHQ.

    For a Labour leader to be greeted with such scorn in a country which last time round elected more than 40 Labour MPs is a very bad sign.

    Add in to that the many failures of the No campaign and you have some very worrying signs for Labour. Very worrying indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    TimB That 1980 referendum was mainly hit by a huge gaffe by the Yes camp, and the 52-48 polls tonight are still showing a larger margin for No than it got in Quebec in 1995, and 19 years later Quebec is still in Canada. Though I would agree devomax, English votes for English laws and more English regional assemblies beyond London and a more Federal settlement may be the inevitable result
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Random said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant frontpage of the Mirror, in total contrast to the bet hedging Sun
    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1

    Isn't that the Charge Of The Light Brigade they are using. Hardly our finest moment
    No its the Scots Greys at Waterloo. Another ill conceived cavalry charge.

    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.
    An ancestor of mine was with the Black Watch at Waterloo. A great victory for the union it was. The European union that is!
    I am sure the French might disagree with you on that one.
    On this one the British, Irish, Dutch and Germans overruled the French. It shows what positive engagement in europe can achieve!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    In 1980 early polls had Yes in the lead or close to it, but PQ Cabinet Minister Lisa Payette attacked female No supporters, including the Liberal leader's wife as 'Yvettes', a docile girl in a school manual, and Yes never recovered. No held numerous rallies of 'Yvettes' women which mobilised a huge female No vote
  • Eek, that's a seriously nasty front page story for the Mail. Scotland we be torn in two by this.

    Yeh, shows you how the establishment are bricking it with the loss of their cash cow!

    Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
    Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
    Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    Its always been the case that the South East, Eastern, East Midlands and South West regions have always had the lowest per capita PESA figures going back to the beginning of Barnett. I think its no coincidence that UKIP's growth is has been driven by those regions. Its not the only factor but its a fairly significant one even so.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    My wife (a Scot) just checked the USCIS website and found out that her letter for her citizenship ceremony will arrive probably on Thursday.

    Is this an omen?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Trudeau also promised to change the constitution to give more powers much as No are doing now
  • AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    Of course anyone who riots will be showing their absolute contempt for democracy.
    Any politician who lies to voters is showing absolute contempt for democracy but that doesn't stop them!
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Blueberry said:

    Does anyone know what UKIP's stance is on devolved powers / Barnett formula? Carwell's obviously in to localism but I'm not sure that translates to the wider party.

    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    Even though Eastern England and South Eastern England are probably some of the highest revenue providers. And we have a Tory Prime Minister, elected off the backs of these regions, who is selling them out as a bribe to keep Scotland in the union. I'm fine with more powers being given over, as that doesn't come at the expense of England, but with taxpayer cash it's another matter.

    I would guess that Hertfordshire and Essex are particularly poorly done by, because they get grouped in regionally with East Anglia, which is poorer and more spread out, so probably gets more cash.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Lord Barnett:

    "My formula is a terrible mistake" and "a national embarassment".

    It's been in place since 1978, and Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have pledged to keep it going.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11100400/My-funding-formula-for-Scotland-is-a-terrible-mistake-Lord-Barnett-admits.html
  • Eek, that's a seriously nasty front page story for the Mail. Scotland we be torn in two by this.

    Yeh, shows you how the establishment are bricking it with the loss of their cash cow!

    Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
    Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
    Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
    Monbiot is a misanthrope. I guess England would be included, but maybe no more so than anywhere else.

    He is the elite though, even though I agree with some of his environmental offerings
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunil As I have also pointed out Scotland is the only UK region the Tory vote share rose in the Euro elections, so the trend may even be running against you on that argument too.

    However, adding a tiny percentage difference to the chances of a Tory led government are not even in my view the minutest bit comparable to the destruction of our union and nation, the satisfaction taken by our enemies abroad and the economic calamity that would follow

    HYUFD what do you mean "destruction"? The constituent nations of the UK will still be there come Friday morning.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107

    Random said:



    Approximately 2,000 heavy cavalry of the Union and Household brigades (the Scots Greys were part of the Union Brigade, so called because it consisted of English, Irish and Scottish regiments) cutting to ribbons a French corps of 20,000 men is hardly "ill conceived". Sergeant Ewart of the Scots Greys captured a French eagle in the charge - not a common feat. Yes, they got disorganised and were scattered when the French cavalry counter-attacked, but smashing D'Erlon's corps was a vital moment in the battle. It was no charge of the light brigade.

    It was extremely ill conceived as is accepted by most historians as it left the Greys with blown horses right in front of the French lines. The fact that they suffered 50% casualties and did very little to change the course of the battle is a good indication of how impetuous and ill conceived it was.
    A cite of just who these "most historians" are would be nice. As for changing the course of the battle - the French were on the verge of winning the battle when the cavalry charged. They had reached the British ridge, the defending forces - mostly Dutch at that point, and outnumbered three or four to one - were breaking apart and an attempt to launch a counter attack with British troops failed when General Picton was killed at the head of his men. The cavalry charge shattering the French corps at the moment of victory and driving the survivors back to the French lines bought vital time. It was the last chance Napoleon had to win the battle before the Prussians arrived - leading elements of Ziethen's Corps had started to arrive even as the French were routed - and the cavalry took it away from him. Of course they took heavy casualties, which would have been reduced if they'd shown greater discipline, but they did their job.
  • Any thoughts on how the West Lothian Question will be answered if Scotland votes NO?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    Btw and apologies if previously reported in tonight's disrupted thread but the latest YouGov/Sun Westminster VI poll goes:

    Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Catalan view of the referendum in a rather effective cartoon twitter.com/suttonnick/status/511991954344017920/photo/1
  • Any thoughts on how the West Lothian Question will be answered if Scotland votes NO?

    Kicked into the long grass. Too busy giving Scotland goodies.

  • Any thoughts on how the West Lothian Question will be answered if Scotland votes NO?

    It will be fudged, as ever. Cameron really is weak on such issues, he's had nearly four and a half years to deal with this - he's hardly likely to tackle it now is he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Sunil But having lost a third of their landmass, and with all the bitterness and division that will follow
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited September 2014
    kle4 said:

    dodrade said:

    In the last week we have seen the true colours of ZANU-SNP, I fear the nationalist thugs will now resort to armed struggle if they cannot win by democratic means.

    Settle down now - nationalists know even a No win is not the end for the cause, they have increased their chances of independence steadily over decades. If they cannot get it this time, they will get another chance in, say, 10 years, why would they jeopardize that?

    Also, they may well still win by democratic means of course.
    Quicker than that. When the economy turns down at the end of next year, even if Yes don't win on Thursday, then that will be the final catalyst to get them over the line as they'll have any number of complaints to list about unfair / unjust treatment from Westminster.

    Am thinking that the Yes bubble has been slightly pricked over the past week. Interesting info from JackW re: that large borders poll of a thousand showing 30% yes there, when they really need to be on 37/38% for a dead heat. Head is saying we will get a no vote (spiral of silence no voters) whilst the heart is saying yes (superior Yes organisation).

    Not too much longer for the suspense to be resolved either way. On the markets GBPUSD has filled the gap at 1.6310 today back to where it had the big drop between Friday close and Sunday night open the weekend before last. Looking at re-entering this short here.

    Does anyone know if we will get an exit poll released immediately at 10pm on Thursday on any of the national TV networks similar to a GE these days? GBPUSD and other GBP crosses will be interesting to view at that time if so! Not a trading market then as so many stops will get run by the big boys at that time that its not worth risking your hard earned capital.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Monbiot I believe lives in Machynlleth mid Wales
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    Still unable to access the previous thread?
    FPT.
    Pong, you and me both, a close result will not even begin to start healing the splits this Indy Referendum has caused.
    Pong said:

    I hope these polls are wrong and Scots vote decisively one way or the other. For everyones sake.

    ChrisA, absolutely agree, there are no words to describe how I feel about Salmond & Co right now after the damage they have caused with their dishonest campaign built on the back nationalism. And to those that now think that UKIP is the answer to your grievances down South, take note, the politics of nationalism don't come without a very big price. Where as before it might be your politics that divided you from some of your friends and family, at least the great range of political choice diluted the fervour to a simmer. But when a party moves into divide and capitalise on pushing the electorate into a its them or us position, its not same. No, it becomes far more nasty and sinister.

    Salmond and Farage both claim to present an alternative the Westminster elite, that is the democratic powerhouse that encompasses a huge range of views from right across the political spectrum right across the whole UK. Remember, that great country that has created an amazing 300 hundred year history. Salmond and the SNP want to build a barrier at the Scottish border, UKIP want to build a new border at the English Channel towards Europe. And as the last couple of threads have shown, they now want to capitalise on creating yet further divisions within UK, just as they have seen the SNP do up here. Well, as someone experiencing it up here like many of the mainstream media, its not all its cracked up to be and its turning pretty nasty.
    Chris_A said:

    Alex Salmond entirely split his country and caused bitter and long lasting divisions. A more odious politician never drew breath in the UK.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Sunil English votes for English laws, maybe regional assemblies if demand
  • Eek, that's a seriously nasty front page story for the Mail. Scotland we be torn in two by this.

    Yeh, shows you how the establishment are bricking it with the loss of their cash cow!

    Monbiot - one of England's real democrats expresses it well here:

    How the media shafted the people of Scotland
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists
    Monbiot? He always gives the impression that he hates England.
    Oh come on. He doesn't hate England, no-one does. He does however have a problem with the elite and the control they have over our democracy. There has clearly been a campaign of intimidation against Scots voters paid for via the cosy consensus between political class and the financial class which controls it. If you want to know why there are ill feelings north of the border it is because of this - the media is controlled by the elite and it has been tasked with terrorising folk. This has been a campaign of intimidation from the darker forces behind the No campaign -strings pulled by their overlords in London..
    Monbiot is a misanthrope. I guess England would be included, but maybe no more so than anywhere else.

    He is the elite though, even though I agree with some of his environmental offerings
    Interesting point and perhaps not without merit. The Guardian does come across as self-righteous however he often does strike many of us as an independent thinker and that is something to be celebrated - an asset for England. I can tell you that his article above will resonate with the thinking of hundreds of thousands of Scots - for all that that's worth..
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,387



    UKIP's last paper on the subject proposed a Federal UK with 4 subordinate home nation parliaments/assemblies with the House Of Lords abolished being replaced by the Federal Parliament.

    http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2011/09/ukip-now-supports-devolution.html

    Well I'll go fuck myself..a UKIP policy paper I can enthusiastically support. Sheeee-eeeet.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    I think I spotted George Monbiot walking in Harcourt Arboretum in Oxfordshire about a year ago.
  • Btw and apologies if previously reported in tonight's disrupted thread but the latest YouGov/Sun Westminster VI poll goes:

    Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%

    Labour leads in weekly Sunil on Sunday ELBOWs:

    Aug 17th: 3.0%
    Aug 24th: 3.5%
    Aug 31st: 3.8%
    7th Sep: 3.0%
    14th Sep: 4.2%
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    On the separate issue of the West Lothian Question, it was the Labour party who implemented Devolution into their heartlands in Scotland and Wales with a referendum they have so far continued to refuse the whole UK on our relationship in Europe. And they still remain the only main political party who continues to use their Scottish and Welsh MP's as Lobby fodder to bolster their vote in the HoC's on policy or legislation that only effects England.

    This current problem doesn't need any big solution, other than the Leader of the Labour Party to make the honest decision to ask his Whips to make sure that his Welsh and Scottish MP's remain in their seats in the HoC's when a vote is on something that will only effect the constituents of those MP's based in England. The joke shouldn't be that there is more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's, it should be that the Labour party has been getting away with dishing out more democracy through devolution to the rest of the UK while using Scottish and Welsh Labour MP's to bolster their vote in the one part of the UK they don't represent!

    And if the usual suspects in the Conservative party and the right leaning media possessed an astute neurone in their collective brains right now. They would realise that the solution isn't necessarily an English Parliament, or to automatically blame Cameron and bow to the threat of UKIP on the EU in the hope of a quick fix. UKIP is never the right answer. No, its going after the Labour party, and shaming them into stopping this cynical abuse of a very clear loop hole they created in our current UK wide democracy which is fuelling legitimate resentment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Tom Newton-Dunn thinks there will be riots on Friday...

    Of course anyone who riots will be showing their absolute contempt for democracy.
    Any politician who lies to voters is showing absolute contempt for democracy but that doesn't stop them!
    I was specifically referring to any riots that might happen in Scotland following the announcement of the result.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speaking of West Lothian, I think it's going to be one of the closest results on Thursday night/Friday morning.
  • I am now *so* fed up with this pandering to Scotch pricks who hate us that it is going to inform my voting intention in 2015.

    I will vote for whoever pledges to welsh on this English-Tory-Money-For-Scotch-Labour-Votes disgrace.

    Even, god help me, if that means UKIP. I am that pissed off.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited September 2014
    fitalass said:

    Still unable to access the previous thread?
    FPT.
    Pong, you and me both, a close result will not even begin to start healing the splits this Indy Referendum has caused.

    Pong said:

    I hope these polls are wrong and Scots vote decisively one way or the other. For everyones sake.

    ChrisA, absolutely agree, there are no words to describe how I feel about Salmond & Co right now after the damage they have caused with their dishonest campaign built on the back nationalism. And to those that now think that UKIP is the answer to your grievances down South, take note, the politics of nationalism don't come without a very big price. Where as before it might be your politics that divided you from some of your friends and family, at least the great range of political choice diluted the fervour to a simmer. But when a party moves into divide and capitalise on pushing the electorate into a its them or us position, its not same. No, it becomes far more nasty and sinister.

    Salmond and Farage both claim to present an alternative the Westminster elite, that is the democratic powerhouse that encompasses a huge range of views from right across the political spectrum right across the whole UK. Remember, that great country that has created an amazing 300 hundred year history. Salmond and the SNP want to build a barrier at the Scottish border, UKIP want to build a new border at the English Channel towards Europe. And as the last couple of threads have shown, they now want to capitalise on creating yet further divisions within UK, just as they have seen the SNP do up here. Well, as someone experiencing it up here like many of the mainstream media, its not all its cracked up to be and its turning pretty nasty.
    Chris_A said:

    Alex Salmond entirely split his country and caused bitter and long lasting divisions. A more odious politician never drew breath in the UK.

    We'll never agree about the merits of Alex Salmond. But he has been proved right in the fact that the appeal of an independent Scotland is EMOTIONAL, and the scaremongering BT campaign simply can't get their heads around that. Yes, I've argued a rational case for independence but that isn't the primary appeal. Of course I don't condone any bad apples on either side of the debate, such as those harassing the Sky reporter wearing a No shirt in Dundee (although it was a pretty stupid stunt to pull all the same, but that's Sky political coverage for you). From my vantage point visiting Edinburgh, Cowdenbeath and Dunkeld last weekend, it all seemed perfectly good natured and I spoke to people from both sides. The people voting yes weren't at all anti-English that I spoke too, they just want what they perceive to be best for the future of Scotland.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Perhaps Roger Harrabin and all the other idiots that report the AGW nonsense would like to report on this:

    http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/record-expansion-antarctic-sea-ice-confounds-climate-scientists/

    or this:

    http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/researchers-find-major-west-antarctic-glacier-melting-geothermal-sources/

    Do pigs fly?

    Good night all - less than 48 hours to go now before all is revealed? Or will the result still be in doubt at 3/4am in the morning with the last of the 32 polling centres to come in (Western Isles?!) That would be fun!!
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    Speaking of West Lothian, I think it's going to be one of the closest results on Thursday night/Friday morning.

    Am surprised we haven't heard a peep from Tam Dalyell in the campaign - or have we? I haven't heard of any intervention from him - is he still in good health at the ripe old age of 82?

    Good night this time!
  • YES Vote 40% - 45% band down from 4.1 earlier today to 3.5 currently.
    So in terms of probability it's up from 24.4% to 28.6%. I still think it's a value bet, especially after today's violence, but please do your own research.
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There's a prediction competition for the referendum at the VoteUK forum:

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4899/indyref-predictions?page
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
  • Sunil - were you able to resolve your earlier problems in resolving the pollsters' seemingly conflicting figures?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    Interesting that Lord Healey seems to have been leaving comments on the Billy Bragg column in today's Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/scottish-nationalism-british-westminster-class?commentpage=5
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
    I thought there was Chipping Barnet and Friern Barnet as well.

    Some of my ancestors lived in East Barnet. One was a councillor who dropped dead after making a speech against Conscription in 1907...
  • It seems that suddenly just about everyone has gone to bed. Hardly surprising really .... Indy fatigue I guess.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    fitalass said:

    On the separate issue of the West Lothian Question, it was the Labour party who implemented Devolution into their heartlands in Scotland and Wales with a referendum they have so far continued to refuse the whole UK on our relationship in Europe. And they still remain the only main political party who continues to use their Scottish and Welsh MP's as Lobby fodder to bolster their vote in the HoC's on policy or legislation that only effects England.

    This current problem doesn't need any big solution, other than the Leader of the Labour Party to make the honest decision to ask his Whips to make sure that his Welsh and Scottish MP's remain in their seats in the HoC's when a vote is on something that will only effect the constituents of those MP's based in England. The joke shouldn't be that there is more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's, it should be that the Labour party has been getting away with dishing out more democracy through devolution to the rest of the UK while using Scottish and Welsh Labour MP's to bolster their vote in the one part of the UK they don't represent!

    And if the usual suspects in the Conservative party and the right leaning media possessed an astute neurone in their collective brains right now. They would realise that the solution isn't necessarily an English Parliament, or to automatically blame Cameron and bow to the threat of UKIP on the EU in the hope of a quick fix. UKIP is never the right answer. No, its going after the Labour party, and shaming them into stopping this cynical abuse of a very clear loop hole they created in our current UK wide democracy which is fuelling legitimate resentment.

    Ah a Scot telling us English what we should and shouldn't want in terms of democracy. How ironic.....

    Your solution does not stop people like Gordon Brown becoming Chancellor (or Danny Alexander as Chief Sec To The Treasury) and deciding how much money we English get to spend on specific devolved areas of government. Whats the point of having English only votes when a Scot has got hold of the purse strings?

    You would have to ban Welsh/ Scottish MP's from the vast majority of Ministerial roles including Prime Minister / Chancellor / Chief Sec To The Treasury / Home Secretary etc etc etc. The reality is there is only one realistic solution that gives England equality with the other Home Nations and that is an English Parliament and the only party currently proposing that are UKIP. So UKIP is the answer.

    Of course there is an alternative and that is to abolish the Scottish/ Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies (breaching the Good Friday Agreement as you go). Somehow I don't think that will work.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
    I thought there was Chipping Barnet and Friern Barnet as well.

    Some of my ancestors lived in East Barnet. One was a councillor who dropped dead after making a speech against Conscription in 1907...
    East Barnet, New Barnet, High Barnet.
    Not all of Barnet falls within Herts either.

  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
    Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex" :)
  • AndyJS said:

    There's a prediction competition for the referendum at the VoteUK forum:

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4899/indyref-predictions?page

    I did suggest that there should be a prize competition on PB.com, but clearly Shadsy, etc. weren't listening.
    Come to think of it we haven't had a worthwhile bookie sponsored competition here for some time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    After its story yesterday about a cloud looking like a Scotland-less Britain, the Mail now brings us the fascinating news a man on the Isle of Wight has found a piece of chicken in his KFC bucket which looks like a headless Britain
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2756567/Is-omen-referendum-The-cloud-looks-like-map-UK-Scotland-taken-away.html
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
    Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex" :)
    I stand corrected, does that also apply to Romford and Barking etc.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014

    Sunil - were you able to resolve your earlier problems in resolving the pollsters' seemingly conflicting figures?

    I am satisfied I know how ICM works, "topping up" with 50% of Don't Know/Refused who gave a 2010 voting party, and recalculating the new percentages.

    However, that approach doesn't seem to fit Lord Ashcroft, as it understates Lab slightly and overstates LDs slightly.

    EDIT compared to His Lordship's stated numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "A goldfish in Australia is recovering from surgery after a life-threatening tumour was removed from its brain in a "high-risk" operation.

    George, whose owner lives in Melbourne, was put under general anaesthetic for the $200 (£125) procedure.

    Dr Tristan Rich, who carried out the operation, told Melbourne's 3AW radio station that the fish was now "up and about and swimming around"."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/29210991
  • Blueberry said:


    I couldn't help noticing that under Barnett, Eastern England gets the lowest share (83%) and South East England gets the second lowest share (86%) compared to UK average. I wonder if UKIP could profit from highlighting this?

    The oppressed of Hertsmere will rise up.
    More Barnet formula than Barnett formula?
    Very good Sunil

    Why thank you!

    (for those scratching their heads, Barnet used to be in Hertfordshire before becoming part of Greater London. As opposed to Potters Bar, which was in Middlesex but ended up in modern Hertfordshire.)
    Barnet is still in Herts for postal address iirc.
    Hertsmere, that was true until quite a few years ago, when postal counties were deemed superfluous in terms of addresses by Royal Mail. So I'm based in mere Ilford, as opposed to "Ilford, Essex" :)
    I stand corrected, does that also apply to Romford and Barking etc.


    I guess it would apply to all addresses nationwide!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    @hunchman
    You just don't get it, just like the Labour Party didn't get it that they hadn't won the arguments on the economy back in 1992. For years, those flash mobs shadowed Margaret Thatcher chanting for her removal in an attempt to drown out the hard economic facts that she delivered. It always looked terrible on the news, especially when so many of the electorate saw their lives and personal circumstances improving on the ground as the UK economy strengthened. It seems crazy now, but I had so many nursing friends who had no problem accessing their first mortgage to buy that first one/two bedroom flat in cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh! Try finding those same people today.

    And then John Major got on his soap box in 1992 to protect that economic legacy against the might of a Labour party under Kinnock. Someone who wanted a more socialist distribution of the spoils of economic growth, but while decrying how we achieved it! And we all know what happened in that election as a result, there were a hell of a lot of shy Tory voters who took one look at the Labour Utopia being promised and thought no thanks.

    But hell, how do you admit that you are siding with the No1 evil enemy of Socialism of the working class as a staunch Labour voter? And all because you don't fancy taking the risk they are wrong and it might put your own job security, mortgage, pension, savings and overall personal financial security at risk as a result? Just look at the SNP/Yes promises of an instantly more prosperous Scotland, and one that is fairer, more equal, and how they claim they will be able end to end poverty in Scotland (although Sturgeon did concede that wouldn't happen overnight!). You get the drift, the Labour party desperately wanted to get the Tories out of power in 1992, and they thought they were going to do it on the back of very similar arguments. Right now in Scotland, there has been the usual moves and arguments to try to present this Indy Referendum as a way to finally get the Tories out of Scotland and its politics forever.

    Would you as a Labour voter, then find it easy to admit that you hadn't suffered quite as much under this Tory Coalition Government as much as the SNP/Lab spin would have you believe. And that more importantly, the risk of an Independent Scotland might just put your new found personal job or financial security in the current economic recovery at risk despite a Tory led Coalition at Westminster? We are in a situation where some voters might hate the Tories, but they love the security the current recovery has delivered. Neither the SNP or the current Labour party Leadership have a similar track record of delivery. ctd
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Ed Miliband tried to copy the John Major strategy recently, and he failed as the Leader of the Opposition because he had no back story of economic improvement or stability to sell to the electorate. Have you seen the ever increasing economic lead Cameron and Osborne have over Miliband and Balls when it comes to the economy in the polls?

    But then a few weeks ago, Jim Murphy decided to take his Better Together campaign onto the streets very successfully, only, he was able to imitate Major rather than Miliband because he was fighting the SNP on the back of the record of the current Coalition Government at Westminster. Says it all really, only sour note was the Labour Party strategy on the NHS biting them on the behookie when the SNP/Yes tried to copy their scare tactics.
  • "ATMs are topped up amid fears of a run on the banks"

    There are moments when I feel the world is going totally mad and when I saw the above headline in today's Times was just one such moment.
  • Go on Fitalass, stick your neck out and tell us how the result's going to go tomorrow and please no fence sitting.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?

    But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.

    Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.

    Go on Fitalass, stick your neck out and tell us how the result's going to go tomorrow and please no fence sitting.

  • @Fitalass

    With respect, the earlier thread has gone AWOL (blame TSE!)

    :)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    fitalass said:

    I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?

    But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.

    Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.

    Go on Fitalass, stick your neck out and tell us how the result's going to go tomorrow and please no fence sitting.

    OK, I checked back on your comments and found your result prediction - certainly no fence sitting there then!

    There has been a distinct lack of optimism from the Yes brigade on here tonight. I wonder if that's significant.
  • From a poll of my night shift HGV drivers.
    Only one of whom has Scottish residency.
    YES have scooped 100% of his postal vote.
  • My prediction of Yes is 48.79%
  • My prediction of Yes is 48.79%

    50.3
    (sticking my neck out there!)
  • Yes 43.12% - No 56.88% is my guess.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    Thanks Peter, I stuck my predictions up first, and then my arguments on why I got there second. I still believe that it will be the under 24's, the women vote and the over 55's that will deliver a comfortable win for the No vote in a very high turnout in the end.

    I also posted on the last thread about why I thought there might be a real possibility of a Shy No vote in the current polling, both by phone or online. I have clearly elaborated on this in my posts on the current thread. If I am proved wrong, fair enough. I will take it on the nose, along with the usual abuse I get on here, and from the usual suspects who only ever note their opponents failures, but never their predication successes.

    fitalass said:

    I not only stuck my neck out on PB with my clear Indy referendum prediction at the weekend, but also in a couple of threads in the previous weeks and months too. Ditto on Twitter, and again earlier tonight on the previous thread. Do you want me to repeat it?

    But for all the nonchalant armchair Generals or hardened punters on PB, @DavidL wasn't joking when he talked of the level of stress this Indy Referendum had caused in his family. I have never ever had this level of concern or worry expressed by family or friends about the outcome of any GE in my whole adult life. So for some of us, it really is personal, and it really will effect our every day lives and finances.

    Some of you won't care about the result, mistakenly thinking it won't effect you at all elsewhere in the UK, good luck with that one. And others will only really care because you have bet hard cash on the outcome, again, again, the best of luck and hope you are not left out pocket.

    Go on Fitalass, stick your neck out and tell us how the result's going to go tomorrow and please no fence sitting.

    OK, I checked back on your comments and found your result prediction - certainly no fence sitting there then!

    There has been a distinct lack of optimism from the Yes brigade on here tonight. I wonder if that's significant.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    PfP I predicted a couple of days ago a No victory of 6-10%. But today I'll go with 44/56
  • If you missed it last night, the Dimbleby interviews with Brown and Salmond are worth watching:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04k1d54/scotland-decides-the-dimbleby-interviews

    Brown in particular is impressive in defence of the union.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Hurrah

    the last day of referendum bollocks !!

This discussion has been closed.