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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Parliament next Saturday end Cameron’s Premiership?
A couple of days ago the Sunday Times reports (££) Informal soundings have been taken about recalling parliament on Saturday, the first Saturday sitting since the Falklands War, if there is a “yes” victory.
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I think a more likely result is a Cameron as caretaker PM until a mid Nov general election. Tories should be able to appoint someone in a few weeks.
Clear case for electing someone with a mandate to handle the separation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11098298/Salmonds-list-of-enemies-grows-longer-by-the-day.html
But the situation is not comparable. The democratically-expressed wish of the people of Scotland may pose an existential threat to the 307-year-old Union, but it will not be a "crisis". It will merely be the starting point for a period of the negotiation of terms, which can be done calmly over a period of months between the SNP and the Lib-Lab-Con-unionist parties. Unlike the cases of Chamberlain and Martin, it will not be necessary for David Cameron to have his head summarily cut off in order for government to continue.
I have had a thought: perhaps there are some people (young, or non-political, or just dim) who don't actually know what "U.K.I.P." stands for. It is nowadays referred to almost universally as "Yoo-Kip" and hardly ever "U.K.I.P.", let alone "UK Independence Party", so maybe some people think that it is primarily an anti-immigration party, or a depository for general protests or whinges, and who may have forgotten (or not been aware in the first place) that its primary aim is to withdraw from the EU.
(I remember that when the Green Party had its first burst of significant support in the late 1980s and early 1990s, I read an anecdote about someone who had voted Green and had then been shocked when he discovered that it was against nuclear weapons.)
Maybe there are some UKIP voters now who might be shocked if they were to be told that the UKIP wants to withdraw from the EU completely, and not just to "reform" it or change it in some way.
However Parliament should be recalled as MPs for the Scottish seats should be disbarred from entering Parliament again (or disqualified as MPs) as they could not take part in the debates on the ancillary relief part of the divorce. Their constituents would be represented by their MSPs.
Also to be disbarred should be all members of the HoL with Scottish residency.
Then the debate should start on what the rUK will allow Scotland to have which parts of the UK's assets and liabilities.
Also Parliament should inform the EU and NATO that Scotland is no longer part of the UK and so are not part of its membership.
Hague in particular strikes me as more of a caretaker, not least since he has previously said he no longer wants the top job and has already given up the post of Foreign Secretary.
However the news of all police leave being cancelled suggests to me that internal polls are indicating NO and they wish to head off a "peaceful and joyous" Zanunat response.
Having Scotland just represented by MSPs would require the UK PM to consult Holyrood on operational defence and foreign affairs.
Westminster "could" pass a bill to disenfranchise Scotland but would the Queen sign it ?
Like it or not, until the final day, there would be Scottish MPs in London.
Remember too the proposal is that Scotland becomes (once more) independent: not that it be towed out into the mid-Atlantic. It will still be there at the top of the map. It plainly is not in rUK's interest to take revenge on what will remain an important trading partner.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-police-will-be-on-high-alert-on-friday-whatever-the-result-9734233.html
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Firstly, thanks for all the good wishes. Back at Chez JackW .. a tad tired and weary but still here !!
I'm being allowed to lurk and make the odd comment but no PB overloading or Mrs JackW will do unthinkable things to both me and Mike Smithson. And next week if I'm up for it Mrs JackW and I will be enjoying some quiet down time in warmer climes. So no ARSE for some weeks, probably back come November.
On the big issue.
Forget almost all the polls. Sampling Scotland is a nightmare and certainly 700 from ICM was a waste of breath. "Almost all polls" I noted.
The exception are the South of Scotland three polls. 1000 within a much smaller population is viable. Small variation in the numbers over the three polls and everything within the polls smells authentic. Around 70/30 to No. Adjust for other regions accordingly.
Next step is to dial in two further factors :
1. Differential turnout of No voters as reality stared them in the face.
2. Pre- buyers remorse of soft Yes voters.
So it's 60/40 for No overall or as the last McARSE prediction noted 60.5%/39.5% to No.
And if you haven't made a killing on the turnout markets over the past months .... Why ????
Fortunately we'll not have to wait too long into the night on Thursday.
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Nice to be back, if only very occasional and part-time for now .....
1. Will the Conservative and Unionist party accept that it's ok for its leader to lose the union?
2. Will the establishment accept its ok for the PM to lose the union?
I suspect the answer to both is no, Cameron won't resign, people rarely do in politics, he will be resigned as the likes of Liam Fox was. However, doubt this Saturday is feasible - MPs petition the speaker for a recall and get agreement and MPs all travel all inside 24 hours? Yes the conference gets in the way, but what will they talk about? Planned business
"However the news of all police leave being cancelled suggests to me that internal polls are indicating NO and they wish to head off a "peaceful and joyous" Zanunat response."
Spoke to a friend in Aberdeen the other day. She is the first of my friends to openly claim to be a No. She also said the proportion of Yes/No posters was roughly 50/50. Given the massive imbalance in other parts of the country, it would suggest there is quite a lot of No support up there.
Just three days and we'll have the voters' verdict. I trust you will pop by to receive congratulations [or otherwise] on the fidelity of your forecast?
Good to have JackW back, even if the logic there seems pretty faulty and driven by wishful thinking. There's nothing wrong with a 1000 sample size if it's properly weighted, and the 700 should not just be dismissed simply because you don't like what it said. Remember the Golden Rule?
Anyway, I'm beginning to hope you're right JackW, not because I care a less about Scotland, but because I want Cameron to win next year. A good No vote is going to look good for him. If it happens.
Scotland’s most senior civil servant put businesses under pressure to stay silent about independence, The Telegraph can disclose.
Sir Peter Housden, the permanent secretary of the Scottish government, contacted organisations that were seen to favour the Union and told them to “keep out” of the debate.
One person, who received a telephone call from the civil servant, said Sir Peter warned that it was “inappropriate” to get involved. A second person said Sir Peter had “torn strips” off him after he raised questions about independence.
It was his decision to not allow Devo Max on the ballot paper, and as they have unconvincingly offered it in a panic at the last minute, seems to have been a very bad error.
Also he should have engaged with the Scottish voters before it looked like he might lose. The "effing Tory" stuff was always factored in. He should have engaged as UK PM from day one, taking a leaf from Major's book and campaigning hard to Save the Union
Again too little, too late, too much panic.
Also let's not forget the Lib Dems here, a perfect opportunity to ditch the coalition? After all proportionately they will be the biggest losers if the Scottish MPs go. And it will be fun watching Danny Alexander's position if the Tory back benchers try and limit the voting rights of Scottish MPs pre 2016.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-ed-miliband-nick-4265992
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416
I will owe you a drinkie if the final MCARSE is correct. There are still good odds on such a result. Indeed on the % bands the extremes either way are at attractive odds.
Agree with TSE's scenario: Cameron will go. It is inconceivable that a Unionist PM can survive Scottish independence and most Tory backbenchers know it. Isabel Oakshotte backed up the STimes claims in Evening Standard yesterday. Hague is unifying figure, at least for a few months. I have a feeling Borders MP Rory Stewart, who has been one of the few Tories actively fighting for the Union, may well be the Leo Amery figure this time.
You know what would be really helpful in that scenario?
For the PM to resign...
Not going to happen.
Interestingly http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/ has the following percentages for South Scotland if the overall vote is a 50-50 tie:
Dumfries and Galloway 36.1% yes.
Borders 38.5% Yes
This clearly supports your 60-40 NO based on polls showing 30% Yes in those region.
A few weeks discussion during conference season would be needed for a real sense of direction to emerge.
Incidentally, for followers of the McARSE, Shadsy has Yes under 40% still at 10/1...
On topic, if the usual suspect Tories do this, they are as vain and thick as I've always considered them.
Twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/511549192339460097/photo/1
The IOS figures on the previous page are interesting but I think they are Labour voters only and are broadly in line with the polls. As I have said from the start Scottish Labour supporters are the key to all of this with an extremely united Tory party and a fairly united (and now small) Lib Dem party largely balancing the SNP (I think taking the 2011 triumph as their base point is unrealistic and explains why 15-18% of their supporters are voting no).
To win Yes need about 40-45% of the Labour vote depending on how you weight the SNP 2011 figure. I believe they will fall short which is why I think No will win but to quote Wellington on Waterloo: "It has been a damned nice thing — the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life."
It is good to see JackW back and I hope he is well but it was the Yougov call to arms that has hopefully made the difference on this and the complacency of the 60:40 crowd came very, very close to losing it. They still might.
This is not over. Not even close.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2751801/Scottish-soldiers-based-England-barred-taking-referendum-decide-home-foreign-country.html
"Military fury over ban on Scottish soldiers based in England voting in next week's historic independence referendum"
Scottish soldiers based in England will not be able to take part in the historic referendum on independence.
Critics condemned the ’shocking’ rules which mean thousands of Scots stationed outside their home nation will not have a say on the future of the Union.
Only those who still have an address in Scotland will be able to take part, affecting troops stationed in England, Cyprus and Germany."
Now we have 3 known liars signing more false pledges or "VOWS" how low can these unionists stoop in their desperate attempt to cling on to the trough.
Why do they need to "VOW" to treat us fairly in the future ......... Doh
Though most calls for Camerons resignation come from those who call for his resignation at the drop of a hat anyway!
Snigger.
I do worry that an independent Scotland would be burdened by a business class of the most extraordinary timidity and cowardice.
In 1940 what was the advice?: Keep Calm and Carry On.
Show a bit of British phlegm please. How would a vote of no confidence and immenent election calm the markets?
One minute he's tweeting pictures about attending the london rally for better together, next he's bemoaning that Cameron's 'vow' being made with Clegg and Miliband is poor strategy as it leaves England open to being represented by Farage and UKIP.
Cammo said the country is more important to him than his party, some may doubt that but I don't actually, so it's a logical thing to do.
Talk about having your cake as a pundit..
.Tim Montgomerie@TimMontgomerie·9h
Only Nigel Farage left to speak for England after this "vow". Another strategic political error by Cameron pic.twitter.com/5FbX6rvy87
So what we have is a vote of no confidence in the Conservative party leadership, which could only realistically coming from within the party.
So, is there a betting situation on who will bring the motion to the floor of the house?
More generally the franchise is in accordance with UK electoral law and the Edinburgh Agreement. It has already been judicially reviewed at least twice (expats and prisoners respectively) IIRC.
Montgomerie it seems would prefer that Britain continues to exist but stops treating the English as second class citizens and is pointing out that Cameron's plan to further disadvantage the English would benefit UKIP at the expense of the Conservative party.
Make the dividing line in management responsibility more obvious.
https://theconversation.com/scotlands-indyref-history-will-now-be-decided-in-a-final-battle-between-hope-and-fear-31700?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+16+September+2014+-+1921&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+16+September+2014+-+1921+CID_b919d78b05c121e0cb26847596c2cf46&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=astonishing turnaround
The ARSE methodology ticks no evidential boxes and requires a good old fashioned British enema-high,hot and a hellavalot, although Sunil'sELBOW methods may be on steroids.
The answer is always in the charts,always follow the charts.
The Tories are only few points behind Labour in polls and may well take the lead in polls before an election. If English voters see Scotland going independent, therefore losing Scottish MP's sometime in 2016, then they may decide to support the Tories. They may think that the Tories who have virtually no political interest in Scotland, will be much tougher in negotiations with Scotland, than Labour. Because Labour have so much at stake in Scotland, they may be more willing to provide a very good divorce settlement to Scotland.
Amused to see PBers dealing with cold-turkey poll-free Tuesday on the last thread - chewing over rumours! of canvass returns! and counting posters in Aberdeen! Calm down. Have a nice cup of tea. All will be revealed shortly...
Recounts on the other hand...
Over two thousand people flocked into Trafalgar Square to wave flags and point excitedly at celebrities – including musician Bob Geldof and comedian, Eddie Izzard – in the utterly misguided belief that their actions would have even the faintest impact on Scottish voters as they approach Thursday’s historic vote on independence.
Irish-born Geldof (62) enthralled the audience as he talked at length about the many and varied things he loves about Scotland, from “those little purple flower things” to its “many tasty biscuits.”
“I love Scotland!” cheered rally attendee, Lucy Hawkes (27). “It’s one of my favourite places in the whole world, and I’d hate to see it go!”
OF course speaking personally, on Saturday I will be starting to prepare for a new Scotland if the vote is indeed YES.
Cameron has had nine years as leader of the Conservative party to propose ideas to deal with the English democratic deficit.
Cameron has had four years as prime minister to do something about the English democratic deficit.
Yet he has proposed nothing and done nothing.
Its clear that Cameron does not care about the English democratic deficit.
Now compare with his panic stricken pledges for more powers to Scotland.
Its clear that Cameron does care about maintaining the Union.
But this leaves an opening for a party which is willing to address the English democratic deficit and 'put England first'. UKIP will fill this role and consequently pick up votes the Conservative party would otherwise have had.
That is why Cameron has committed a strategic error.
Any golfing advice on how to remedy this would be appreciated? Further back in my stance perhaps?
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occasions/recallparliament/
He cannot do it on his own volition.
However, there is a real danger of future terrorist violence from aggrieved extreme nationalists, like the IRA insurgencies, which could yet lead to Scottish secession if the British authorities mis-handle the situation.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=A55_KIhv2nsC&pg=PA51&lpg=PA51&dq="scottish+health+service"+forsyth+"NHS+in+Scotland"&source=bl&ots=hRwcoilKRX&sig=AG5Kk5-FVzYP7ZONwGDx-r7hinI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=1eQXVOiHNozZaseKgLgM&ved=0CFIQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q="scottish health service" forsyth "NHS in Scotland"&f=false
Wouldn't it have been better to hold it in Scotland and invite a load of Scots.
It's an interesting fantasy. To push it further: Cameron asks Miliband to join him in a Grand Coalition, and Miliband quotes Attlee: "No, sir. I won't have you, and I believe the country won't have you, either."
But there were no Kippers in them days... and Boris isn't exactly Churchill, either...
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/07/26/what-the-independence-referendums-in-quebec-suggest-about-scotland/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/73259dcc-3cbc-11e4-871d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DSZmLPQk
Again, a rather different perspective from some others. Quite striking.