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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – t

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  • Industrial output continues to climb in the West. It's just employment in industry that falls as we get more productive.


    I don't believe the official memes here. Look, where is the demand for industrial production? Europe, ahem. US? nope. Internal? Nope. There is some fake demand from these areas as a result of increased debt which is driving temporary demand and QE (money printing). The only sector really firing are because of military demand for hardware so that's down to sovereign debt. Aside from that, the UK figures would look terrible were it not for North Sea oil and gas and related engineering in the NE of Scotland where secondary North Sea engineering products are proving to have growing global demand. In Scotland we also bring in billions via whisky but I can't see where demand for industrial production is coming from except via Keynesian driven demand which only adds to the debt burden. And what happens when the interest rates go up? Not pretty for the UK where private debt including financial, personal and business debt equals 700% of GDP!
    When interest rates go up demand will die and the economic contraction will look like the plague hit us.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @BlackDouglas
    HurstLama has studied the WW1 for 40 years you know?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @BlackDouglas
    AND THEY ARE ALL NEXT DOOR ON THE OTHER THREAD IN CASE YOU ARE WAITING
  • Here you can see oil prices following global GDP forecasts: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-12/oil-price-plunge-its-global-economy-stupid

    Net oil imports to the US have fallen, from over 11 million barrels/day in 2007 to 8 million barrels/day in 2013. (Note, they are still importing!)

    While, as pointed out by others below the US has increased its oil and gas production, it is slowing demand that has impacted primarily on prices. For example, in 2012, per capita energy use in the US actually fell by 5% versus 2011.

    I asked below why a certain comment hadn't been moderated out and was criticised for seeking censorship. Am I to believe that here asking for moderation is an injustice however saying Scottish nationalists would have been Nazi collaborators is just fine? And you wonder why so many Scots seek independence? That aside, thanks for welcoming me, however that said I was active on this board a number of years back..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    My cousin is pregnant at the moment. She got a letter a week ago about her 11-week scan saying that her hospital would call in three working days. Well, having not heard anything, she calls her GP to discuss and the GP says that the NHS always misses these deadlines and it'll probably take them another week.

    This is the health service that we brag about as part of our national identity.
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