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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

BREAKING: Scottish #indyref too close to call says ICM @guardian poll > 42% no, 40% yes, but a full 17% undecided http://t.co/pSmwv00Zl7

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    First?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,703
    Second.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    So now we are no more knowledgeable than before and we face another week of the craziness....

    :-(
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Looking at the data tables, including don't knows, No has a lead of 17% with over 65s, which is on the low side.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2014
    Tables

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Women 55% no

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    TGOHF said:

    Any link to the tables ? Interested if the DKs are evenly spread by age or gender.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    TGOHF said:

    Any link to the tables ? Interested if the DKs are evenly spread by age or gender.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf

    No ahead in under 25s.

    Spreads in DKs by both region and age.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looking at the data tables, including don't knows, No has a lead of 17% with over 65s, which is on the low side.

    Sounds like the Nats convert a granny tactic is working.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Looks like it'll be 2 free cars from Westminster over the weekend.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 758
    I expect that the ICM phone poll wouldn't be able to poll the newly-registered voters, right? Their list won't be that up-to-date?
  • nch121nch121 Posts: 4
    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The polling may be wrong, but at face value Mike is right: across multiple pollsters, with different methodologies, this is looking too close to call,. The value in the betting is therefore on Yes even if you think it likely (as I do) that No will win in the end.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    By Age DKs are

    16-24 11%
    25-34 - 20%
    35-44 - 21%
    45-54 -13%
    55-64 - 17%
    65+ - 20%
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I notice people knocking Ian Paisley senior on the previous thread.

    I thought he was the sort of off message/listen to my voters/conviction politician we don't have enough of these days.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    144 out of 1000 are certain to vote but DK.

    Lolz

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Expect No to win, but the value is with Yes.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    FPT Re the £ fall - so glad my pension [paid from the UK in €s] went in the bank this morning and almost identical to last months. Hopefully if the vote is yes any resultant turbulence will be over by next month. Other than that if Scotland chooses to go I'm just not very bovvered - after seeing some of the scenes on TV this week it increasingly seems a rather bigoted place full of resentment and bitterness. Maybe they need to be on their own to sort themselves out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. 121, welcome to pb.com.

    It's always a nice feeling when you're green whatever happens.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,050
    JonathanD said:

    By Age DKs are

    16-24 11%
    25-34 - 20%
    35-44 - 21%
    45-54 -13%
    55-64 - 17%
    65+ - 20%

    Would be surprised is the 65+ DK rate was as high as that and the 16-24 rate was as low as that.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2014
    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    A month ago people said I was being silly when I tipped the 11/2 on Yes winning being value.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,813
    Good. I wouldn't have wanted the story to become an increasing 'No' lead (unless it were such a huge one as to put the result beyond doubt). It would lead to complacency.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TGOHF said:



    144 out of 1000 are certain to vote but DK.

    Lolz

    Shy YESsers or shy NOers? Hmm.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    14.4 % of those called are 10/10 certain to vote but won't say which way.

    Stick a fork in yes - they are toast.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Perhaps the coordinating has reached its high water mark.

    Mark Kleinman ‏@MarkKleinmanSky 12 mins
    Source tells me EE has decided not to sign telecoms industry statement on Scottish independence; company wants to "remain neutral".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,050
    Patrick said:

    TGOHF said:



    144 out of 1000 are certain to vote but DK.

    Lolz

    Shy YESsers or shy NOers? Hmm.....
    Shy voters are always on the unfashionable side so No in this case. I guess there is no spiral of silence adjustment, I think No would have a commanding lead with one.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Beverley_C
    Not really, the SNP is a broad church held together by "independence", it will fracture once that goes.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    62% of those not working (distinct from retired) are voting Yes vs 19% voting No.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm very glad I don't live in Scotland right now.
    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    Not at all, given the way the Tories have been livened up by indref and would benefit from dumping the London/Thatcher link, and the Lefties have also been invigorated. The SNP would have plenty to do on both sides even if the Labour rump were still catatonic.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Wow.

    Martin McGuinness ‏@M_McGuinness_SF
    Very sad to learn that Ian Paisley has died.My deepest sympathy to his wife Eileen & family.Once political opponents - I have lost a friend.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,050
    JonathanD said:

    62% of those not working (distinct from retired) are voting Yes vs 19% voting No.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf

    That's what comes of the SNP advertising iScot being a socialists paradise.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Where's Smithson,who are the county champions mike ;-)

    I've been waiting 3 years for this,mike did his bragging when Lancashire won the county championship and Yorkshire got relegated.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wow.

    Martin McGuinness ‏@M_McGuinness_SF
    Very sad to learn that Ian Paisley has died.My deepest sympathy to his wife Eileen & family.Once political opponents - I have lost a friend.

    A far classier response than some of the turnips on here.
  • BoabBoab Posts: 13
    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    No. It's stupid.

    After independence, the SNP would be liable to break up, and even if they didn't would be then fighting against a new Labour party and even a Conservative party no longer attached to Westminster.

    You only have one party rule if thats what you vote for!

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    Two other thoughts:

    1. Ever heard of Scots law?
    2. Existing laws would be retained pro tem.
    3. And the new constitution is explicitly stated to be multi-party plus civil society in origin. Any breach of that would cause uproar and under the existing parliament it only needs the Greens, Indeps and a couple of SNP rebels to stop any nonsense.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    62% of those not working (distinct from retired) are voting Yes vs 19% voting No.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf

    That's what comes of the SNP advertising iScot being a socialists paradise.
    It also explains where a lot of the cybernats come from....
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wow.

    Martin McGuinness ‏@M_McGuinness_SF
    Very sad to learn that Ian Paisley has died.My deepest sympathy to his wife Eileen & family.Once political opponents - I have lost a friend.

    A far classier response than some of the turnips on here.
    Can we expect a similar response from you when Mr McGuinness passes?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:


    TGOHF said:

    14.4 % of those called are 10/10 certain to vote but won't say which way.

    Stick a fork in yes - they are toast.

    Where did you see that?

    If that is true, I tend to agree, these people must be Shy NOs. Nearly all the aggression - shouting, chanting, defaced posters - has come from YES.

    I cannot believe there are many shy YES voters.
    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_guardian_scotland_indep_poll.pdf

    Table 3 - it gets more bizarre

    From a weighted base of 810, there are 142 DKs.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Yorkcity said:

    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.

    Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT

    PfP : "Phone polls affected by "shy Nos" factor (compared with less so/not at all for online poll), therefore expect good result for "Yes". I'll go for a 50% : 50% dead heat excl DKs."

    Bow before me, I say bow before me!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Meet the switchers (to YES)...
    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3444/Meet-the-switchers.aspx
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    FrankBooth said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.
    Good points too.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 42m
    The judge in the Oscar Pistorious case is a total moron. She said he didn't act like a killer. This is another O.J. disaster!

    I tend to agree with the above sentiment.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    'Respondents are asked whether they voted in the 2011 Holyrood election and if they did, which party they voted for'

    Given there are two votes in scottish elections, with some folks splitting their vote, there seems plenty of scope for confused answers to that one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TGOHF said:

    14.4 % of those called are 10/10 certain to vote but won't say which way.

    Stick a fork in yes - they are toast.

    You are on Fantasy island mate with the idea that "Yes" is toast. ~ 4 points behind and coming back from further with a week or so to go.

    Scotland voting "Yes" would not be great for my betting positions - need Dave to stay in post till the GE and it not to be cancelled/Scottish seats cut out etc etc but the idea that it is "toast" is ridiculous.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    We won't know how this is going to end up until this time next week. The fate of the entire nation probably rests on a few thousand voters....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A far classier response than some of the turnips on here.

    Absolutely. Ian Paisley listened to his constituents and represented their views far more passionately and consistently than very many politicians we have today.

    He was the antithesis of the modern, careerist, PPE degree holding, expense claiming MP.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wow.

    Martin McGuinness ‏@M_McGuinness_SF
    Very sad to learn that Ian Paisley has died.My deepest sympathy to his wife Eileen & family.Once political opponents - I have lost a friend.

    A far classier response than some of the turnips on here.
    Can we expect a similar response from you when Mr McGuinness passes?
    Mr McG saw the light and changed his ways to peace. For that he is to be applauded.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Did a blog on Alex Salmond's fib-mongering.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100286194/theyre-all-lying-about-scottish-independence-but-the-yes-lies-are-the-most-dangerous/

    Good post - but, You may have found your name added to Jim Sillars list of undesirables ; )
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    nch121 said:

    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wow.

    Martin McGuinness ‏@M_McGuinness_SF
    Very sad to learn that Ian Paisley has died.My deepest sympathy to his wife Eileen & family.Once political opponents - I have lost a friend.

    A far classier response than some of the turnips on here.
    Can we expect a similar response from you when Mr McGuinness passes?
    I see Mr ex-Flashman has also developed an interest in cultivars of Brassica rapa ...

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Smarmeron said:

    @Beverley_C
    Not really, the SNP is a broad church held together by "independence", it will fracture once that goes.

    FrankBooth said:

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.

    However, post-YES it would retain a majority position that it already has for some time. Postponing elections until everything was "sorted out" would lock that majority in for an arbitrary period.

    It is all very well saying that the SNP would fall apart but power has a way of melding strange bedfellows together.
    Boab said:


    You only have one party rule if thats what you vote for!

    Not necessarily. Many times throughout history people have wound up with one party rule that they did not vote for.

    I agree that the chances are slim, but all the elements needed for an authoritarian regime are there.
  • nch121nch121 Posts: 4
    malcolmg said:


    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    I agree with you, my point was that the movement of businesses suggested that the yes vote would lead to more poverty.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Beverley_C said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Beverley_C
    Not really, the SNP is a broad church held together by "independence", it will fracture once that goes.

    FrankBooth said:

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.

    However, post-YES it would retain a majority position that it already has for some time. Postponing elections until everything was "sorted out" would lock that majority in for an arbitrary period.

    It is all very well saying that the SNP would fall apart but power has a way of melding strange bedfellows together.
    Boab said:


    You only have one party rule if thats what you vote for!

    Not necessarily. Many times throughout history people have wound up with one party rule that they did not vote for.

    I agree that the chances are slim, but all the elements needed for an authoritarian regime are there.
    The electoral cycle is fixed by law - and no way could the SNP change that law even should they so wish, for the reasons I adduced earlier.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Carnyx said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    Two other thoughts:

    1. Ever heard of Scots law?
    2. Existing laws would be retained pro tem.
    3. And the new constitution is explicitly stated to be multi-party plus civil society in origin. Any breach of that would cause uproar and under the existing parliament it only needs the Greens, Indeps and a couple of SNP rebels to stop any nonsense.

    Carnyx, I salute your resolve in trying to answer nutters stupid remarks with some sensible information. However you are fighting a losing battle, they are thick, bigoted and stupid so very difficult to get through to them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,687
    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    malcolmg said:

    nch121 said:

    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    If the poor don't want more poverty, they will vote No.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Garethofthevale said:

    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?

    @GerryBraiden: oohhh... a handy wee #Indyref tool for next Thursday/Friday . http://t.co/1cbifT9fe8 cheers via @cllrdmeikle
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    Remember:

    If Scotland votes NO, we all get Ed!
    If Scotland votes YES, we all get (rid of) Dave!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Beverley_C said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Beverley_C
    Not really, the SNP is a broad church held together by "independence", it will fracture once that goes.

    FrankBooth said:

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.

    However, post-YES it would retain a majority position that it already has for some time. Postponing elections until everything was "sorted out" would lock that majority in for an arbitrary period.

    It is all very well saying that the SNP would fall apart but power has a way of melding strange bedfellows together.
    Boab said:


    You only have one party rule if thats what you vote for!

    Not necessarily. Many times throughout history people have wound up with one party rule that they did not vote for.

    I agree that the chances are slim, but all the elements needed for an authoritarian regime are there.
    NUTJOB Extrodinaire
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MarkHopkins
    Osbourne is going to reverse his policies at the next budget?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HurstLlama said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.

    Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
    Depends what History you choose.

    The Roman world was governed from wherever the emperor was located. York was priviledged to be the heart of the Roman empire in two periods, about 100 years apart.

    However there is no doubting which ever way we go now England will have to have a parliament
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Scott_P said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?

    @GerryBraiden: oohhh... a handy wee #Indyref tool for next Thursday/Friday . http://t.co/1cbifT9fe8 cheers via @cllrdmeikle
    Surely an exit poll will have result in minutes, unless it is very close?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I fear this whole thing is going to end badly. A narrow NO looks as plausible as a narrow YES and neither are good.

    Does anyone else think that a post-YES Scotland may become highly authoritarian? It would have a single party controlling the assembly, a "charismatic" leader who tends to squash/deny dissent and who will be separating himself from the existing legalistic framework thus allowing him to write new laws and pass them on a rubberstamp.

    Does nobody worry about that sort of stuff?

    Two other thoughts:

    1. Ever heard of Scots law?
    2. Existing laws would be retained pro tem.
    3. And the new constitution is explicitly stated to be multi-party plus civil society in origin. Any breach of that would cause uproar and under the existing parliament it only needs the Greens, Indeps and a couple of SNP rebels to stop any nonsense.

    Carnyx, I salute your resolve in trying to answer nutters stupid remarks with some sensible information. However you are fighting a losing battle, they are thick, bigoted and stupid so very difficult to get through to them.
    It's a hard life doing my cybernational service. The countdown calendar on the barrack-room wall is almost ended however!

    Off to the cookroom now, and then I must blanco my webbing and bull my boots ...

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott_P said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?

    @GerryBraiden: oohhh... a handy wee #Indyref tool for next Thursday/Friday . http://t.co/1cbifT9fe8 cheers via @cllrdmeikle
    So 25% of the results (the three largest cities) will come in at the end, between 5-6am?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    nch121 said:

    malcolmg said:


    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    I agree with you, my point was that the movement of businesses suggested that the yes vote would lead to more poverty.

    Most people do not believe them so it is a moot point. We have been here before and they lied, so have form same as Westminster. People see it as just self interest, gong chasing and are not impressed. They will upset more people than they are able to scare.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?

    @GerryBraiden: oohhh... a handy wee #Indyref tool for next Thursday/Friday . http://t.co/1cbifT9fe8 cheers via @cllrdmeikle
    Surely an exit poll will have result in minutes, unless it is very close?
    No exit poll (amazingly enough I know). Discussed yesterday on a previous thread.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    MarkHopkins said:

    malcolmg said:

    nch121 said:

    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    If the poor don't want more poverty, they will vote No.

    Turnip head , they have had Westminster all their lives , they understand what they will get from there and it is more poverty. They have nothing to lose taking a punt, it cannot get worse for them.
    Idiots like you do not seem able to understand that simple fact.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Beverley_C said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Beverley_C
    Not really, the SNP is a broad church held together by "independence", it will fracture once that goes.

    FrankBooth said:

    I'm not sure the SNP would be so dominant. Their USP - we're not linked to Westminster - would be gone. It'll have some form of PR I'm sure which will make majorities quite difficult. The SNP cold easily break apart quite quickly. It has factions pulling in different directions. Having spent a small amount of time in Scotland it's clear that not all Yessers like the SNP or Salmond.

    However, post-YES it would retain a majority position that it already has for some time. Postponing elections until everything was "sorted out" would lock that majority in for an arbitrary period.

    It is all very well saying that the SNP would fall apart but power has a way of melding strange bedfellows together.
    Boab said:


    You only have one party rule if thats what you vote for!

    Not necessarily. Many times throughout history people have wound up with one party rule that they did not vote for.

    I agree that the chances are slim, but all the elements needed for an authoritarian regime are there.
    As a matter of interest, you might like to consider how much easier it would be to do that at Westminster, given FPTP and the other differences.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
    Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    HurstLlama said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.

    Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
    Seen the road system in Winchesteer?

    A business park off the M4 is the answer.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    MikeK said:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 42m
    The judge in the Oscar Pistorious case is a total moron. She said he didn't act like a killer. This is another O.J. disaster!

    I tend to agree with the above sentiment.

    I don't. I thought the verdict was balanced and fair. I do believe he should now serve some time for the culpable homicide as stupidity should be no defence against punishment but certainly don't think it would have been a correct outcome to have found him guilty of pre-meditated Murder.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,703
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Looking ahead to the results declarations, I read on the Telegraph that it will be counted overnight by council area. Will there be a separate declaration for each council area or will there only be a national declaration with a breakdown by council later?

    Anyone know of any betting markets looking at the vote by council area?

    I would guess that Na h-Eileanan Siar and Dundee will be yes, Borders and D&G no. Anyone care to predict the rest?

    @GerryBraiden: oohhh... a handy wee #Indyref tool for next Thursday/Friday . http://t.co/1cbifT9fe8 cheers via @cllrdmeikle
    Surely an exit poll will have result in minutes, unless it is very close?
    Exactly!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited September 2014
    malcolmg said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    malcolmg said:

    nch121 said:

    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    If the poor don't want more poverty, they will vote No.

    Turnip head , they have had Westminster all their lives , they understand what they will get from there and it is more poverty. They have nothing to lose taking a punt, it cannot get worse for them.
    Idiots like you do not seem able to understand that simple fact.

    "they have had Westminster all their lives"

    No, they have been voting socialist all their lives.

    "it cannot get worse for them"

    Oh yes it can.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,144
    Seems to be a distinct bit of convergence going on.

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
    Yes vote in polls this week: Sun Panelbase 48% Sun YouGov 51% Tues TNS 49% Wed Survation 47% Thurs YouGov 48% Fri ICM 49% Average 48.7%
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    malcolmg said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    malcolmg said:

    nch121 said:

    The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.

    Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

    Key thing is that it is mainly poor people who are registering to vote , they are not in polling , they do not care about big business and it is unlikely they are registering to vote for more poverty please. If they follow through and vote for change as expected it will be a big gap.

    If the poor don't want more poverty, they will vote No.

    They have nothing to lose taking a punt, it cannot get worse for them.
    Exactly.

    My country is Kiltartan Cross,
    My countrymen Kiltartan's poor.
    No likely end could bring them loss
    Or leave them happier than before.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    FPT
    Theuniondivvie said:

    42% 2010 Labour voters going Yes apparently.

    Worth repeating this as it is a very important point which bears on the future whatever happens. It was in the low thirties last time I saw the figure, I think.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    SeanT said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
    It is nonetheless the case that we have only had ONE poll, out of hundreds, showing a YES lead. Yes it's damn close. Painfully close.

    But if you had to bet your life on it, then the bet would be NO. Just.

    However I agree that the odds seem bizarrely misaligned with the polling, and I further agree this must be daft English money skewing it, even on Betfair.

    Nearly £7 million so far! How much of that is daft we will have to wait another week.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A month ago people said I was being silly when I tipped the 11/2 on Yes winning being value.

    I got on at 6/1 almost exactly one month ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. City, there is such a doubt. The clown Clegg has already advocated mealy-mouthed mayoral nonsense and rubbish regions. I concur entirely with you a Parliament is necessary.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    What is the procedure on recounts?

    The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...

    See the problem?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Yorkcity said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.

    Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
    Depends what History you choose.

    The Roman world was governed from wherever the emperor was located. York was priviledged to be the heart of the Roman empire in two periods, about 100 years apart.

    However there is no doubting which ever way we go now England will have to have a parliament
    Choosing York because of its, temporary, prominence when Britannia was a Roman colony seems a bit odd. However, if you want to go by English history then surely Winchester has the claim.

    All a bit moot though because the powers that be will never let England have a parliament. I doubt Cameron, Clegg and Miliband will even acknowledge the WLQ and if they do they will give the same answer as Blair - we can't have two classes of MP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Seems to be a distinct bit of convergence going on.

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
    Yes vote in polls this week: Sun Panelbase 48% Sun YouGov 51% Tues TNS 49% Wed Survation 47% Thurs YouGov 48% Fri ICM 49% Average 48.7%

    TUD , I am sure the frothers will consider them outliers, you should know by now it is sure to be NO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Norm said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
    Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
    With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    By the way, those after some distraction may be interested in watching the first (of 10) Formula E race. It's in Beijing, programme on ITV4 starts at 8am tomorrow, I think. Three races will be shown this year, the other seven in 2015.

    Cars are identical for the initial season but can then be developed. Driver lineup has many ex- and a few potential future F1 drivers.

    No idea how good/bad it will be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AlanRoden: Some people are questioning where I got the Jim Sillars quotes from. They're from his own press release: #indyref http://t.co/RKFLcmmFAd

    Note to Malc. It says Friday 12th September at the top...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    Ishmael_X said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.

    Hope it will be in York.

    Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
    Seen the road system in Winchesteer?

    A business park off the M4 is the answer.

    Meriden is supposed to be the centre of England.
    Nearby Tamworth was capital of Mercia.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    rottenborough said:

    Norm said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
    Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
    With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
    Didn't know Bushmills distillery was closing?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:


    However I agree that the odds seem bizarrely misaligned with the polling, and I further agree this must be daft English money skewing it, even on Betfair.

    A lot of the money on Betfair is the bookies' cashflow, so if people are sticking crazy bets on a a bookie it will make it's way to Betfair.
  • bazzbazz Posts: 16
    It's absoultely fascinating, because the bedrock of political betting - which has underpinned so much of the contributions to this site over the years - is polling data.

    Here we are in an extremely unusual situation where the market is simply saying; "we don't believe the event will end up as close as the polls suggest, whatever the data says". So the odds have moved out of line with no's polling lead.

    Usually in these circumstances the "market" is wiser than polls alone, but it's unusual...I can't think of many other events where the betting market has been sure of a No victory when the polling data suggests it's such a tight contest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RodCrosby said:

    What is the procedure on recounts?

    The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...

    See the problem?

    If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    Carnyx said:

    rottenborough said:

    Norm said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?

    No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.

    I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
    Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
    With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
    Didn't know Bushmills distillery was closing?

    LOL. My mistaken typo. Although I do enjoy the odd Bushmills as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Looking like if it is a NO, it will be down to the English-born. No fear about recriminations there then.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    bazz said:


    Usually in these circumstances the "market" is wiser than polls alone, but it's unusual...I can't think of many other events where the betting market has been sure of a No victory when the polling data suggests it's such a tight contest.

    There is potentially a high degree of variance of information between the two groups.

    The people placing the best are not those being polled.

    For most other events the two groups are much more aligned.
This discussion has been closed.