I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?
No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.
I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
Didn't know Bushmills distillery was closing?
LOL. My mistaken typo. Although I do enjoy the odd Bushmills as well.
I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?
No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.
I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
There is/was a whiskey/whisky distillery in Wales. I can't remember the name off the top of my head, something to do with sheep. Anyway, it wasn't bad stuff. It might be time to see if one can buy shares in it.
As a matter of interest, you might like to consider how much easier it would be to do that at Westminster, given FPTP and the other differences.
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
A thousand votes? You must be joking. It's standard to grant a recount if it's less than 1% in parliamentary elections. Sometimes for an even greater margin...
In the Scottish context, this would equate to around 34,000, maybe 50,000.
I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?
No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.
I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
Agreed at least we'll have a nice earner to drown our sorrows with.
With Whiskey obviously. Probably the last bottle.
There is/was a whiskey/whisky distillery in Wales. I can't remember the name off the top of my head, something to do with sheep. Anyway, it wasn't bad stuff. It might be time to see if one can buy shares in it.
Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.
Hope it will be in York.
Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
Depends what History you choose.
The Roman world was governed from wherever the emperor was located. York was priviledged to be the heart of the Roman empire in two periods, about 100 years apart.
However there is no doubting which ever way we go now England will have to have a parliament
Choosing York because of its, temporary, prominence when Britannia was a Roman colony seems a bit odd. However, if you want to go by English history then surely Winchester has the claim.
All a bit moot though because the powers that be will never let England have a parliament. I doubt Cameron, Clegg and Miliband will even acknowledge the WLQ and if they do they will give the same answer as Blair - we can't have two classes of MP.
But we wouldn't have; we'd have English MP's and UK ones. What would you call an English MP, though. (Cue all sorts of fanciful and possibly abusive suggestions) Can't call them a Member of the English Parliament since that clashes with Member of the European Parliament. (Cue more fantasists.) Member of the English Assembly (MEA)?
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
I'm sure I have read somewhere that there will not be a recount based on closeness, only on concerns about process.
Me too. The Chief Returning Office or some such person, about 2 months back perhaps. Struck me as distinctly odd, though I now wonder if it is on the Chicago Piano Tuner principle that errors tend to cancel out if you make up a total from a number of different elements.
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
PfP : "Phone polls affected by "shy Nos" factor (compared with less so/not at all for online poll), therefore expect good result for "Yes". I'll go for a 50% : 50% dead heat excl DKs."
Bow before me, I say bow before me!
Blind optimism aside; I believe there is absolute substance in the 'shy-no' theory.
So people are very sure the DK's will break for the status quo. I can understand why that is the case, the argument is simple. But why then is that not the case with the Scottish Devolution referendum in 1997 where DK's broke more towards Devo than Status Quo.
Which ever way the vote goes, England will need a parliament.
Hope it will be in York.
Surely Winchester would be the best place if we go by history. Though were such a parliament to be established I expect it would end up in Birmingham.
Depends what History you choose.
The Roman world was governed from wherever the emperor was located. York was priviledged to be the heart of the Roman empire in two periods, about 100 years apart.
However there is no doubting which ever way we go now England will have to have a parliament
Choosing York because of its, temporary, prominence when Britannia was a Roman colony seems a bit odd. However, if you want to go by English history then surely Winchester has the claim.
All a bit moot though because the powers that be will never let England have a parliament. I doubt Cameron, Clegg and Miliband will even acknowledge the WLQ and if they do they will give the same answer as Blair - we can't have two classes of MP.
But we wouldn't have; we'd have English MP's and UK ones. What would you call an English MP, though. (Cue all sorts of fanciful and possibly abusive suggestions) Can't call them a Member of the English Parliament since that clashes with Member of the European Parliament. (Cue more fantasists.) Member of the English Assembly (MEA)?
Call them MEPs and leave the EU to avoid the issue.
As a matter of interest, you might like to consider how much easier it would be to do that at Westminster, given FPTP and the other differences.
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
according to the ICM poll, 10% of yes voters think there is no risk if the remain in the UK, balanced by 10% of No voters who think there is a huge risk - go figure!
It's absoultely fascinating, because the bedrock of political betting - which has underpinned so much of the contributions to this site over the years - is polling data.
Here we are in an extremely unusual situation where the market is simply saying; "we don't believe the event will end up as close as the polls suggest, whatever the data says". So the odds have moved out of line with no's polling lead.
Usually in these circumstances the "market" is wiser than polls alone, but it's unusual...I can't think of many other events where the betting market has been sure of a No victory when the polling data suggests it's such a tight contest.
The end result of this referendum from a betting perspective is that a lot of people will be right and a lot of people will be wrong, but they might well be right and wrong for the wrong reasons.
"PoliticsHome @politicshome 2m .@SimonDanczuk accuses Greater Manchester Police of "lots of talk, very few prosecutions" over child abuse allegations #wato."
Same training seminars as SYP or is that tin foil hat stuff?
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
No , why would overall result be a concern if no problem with any particular region
But you don't know there's a problem until you look for it? There have been suspicions in the past in safe seats that thousands of votes were miscounted, but no recount was called for....
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
A thousand votes? You must be joking. It's standard to grant a recount if it's less than 1% in parliamentary elections. Sometimes for an even greater margin...
In the Scottish context, this would equate to around 34,000, maybe 50,000.
Not Scottish related, but you might know Rod - what's the 'closeness' required to be able to request a recount for the purpose of saving your deposit in a Gen Election? 1% of the overall seems too generous, but 1% of the 5% seems a bit tight...
The betfair swing was fun. The yes vote looks great value but I'd have thought given the constant stream of bad news from big businesses, particularly the food retailers, that undecided voters would lean towards no.
Greening out on the swings has enabled me to cover the yes vote alongside the no 45-50% both for a profit so feeling pretty pleased at the moment.
Indeed. I need to balance my book a bit. I've too much sitting to Yes after piling extra in as 'that' YouGov poll was breaking.
I still think NO will win (for the reasons mentioned below) but the odds on Betfair are insane. An 75-80% chance of NO?
No way. Value trading bet. I think there are plenty of people betting in England on this who simply haven't been to or understand Scotland, and think everyone else is as horrified at the Union breaking up as they are.
I'm horrified and I'm betting on 'Yes'.
The money won is a small compensation for the horror.
Ipsos Mori puts Tories ahead of Lab for first time since 2011 CON 34 LAB 33 LIB DEM 7 UKIP 15. Not a great help in #indyref
I don't think Scots are particularly focussed on Westminster at the moment. It's all about the economic and patriotic case for or against iScotland.
ICM shows that more people in Scotland think indy will be a risk rather than otherwise. It's whether they think that a risk worth taking, in return for independence.
Hmm, interesting argument. But I think you will find a lot of Scots are actually weighing up the risks of staying in the Union versus going indy. (It may not be explicit, but even thinking in terms of 'better than now' is much the same thing.)
according to the ICM poll, 10% of yes voters think there is no risk if the remain in the UK, balanced by 10% of No voters who think there is a huge risk - go figure!
Mr. City, there is such a doubt. The clown Clegg has already advocated mealy-mouthed mayoral nonsense and rubbish regions. I concur entirely with you a Parliament is necessary.
I believe it has to be now either way. An English Parliament with the same devolved powers as they are offering to Scotland.
Thanks for that, but it wasn't what I was thinking of. Penderyn only started up in 2000 and I remember drinking a Welsh whisky whilst on a holiday there in the late eighties. I am sure then name had something to do with sheep but it was a long time ago and I am not as young as I was.
So, looking at the regional breakdown, this is another poll saying Glasgow is more NO than the rest of the country - excluding DKs Glasgow is listed as being more NO than the South of Scotland! Which is bonkers.
Given that Glasgow is listed as one of the most Yes places by most pundits and bookies are the polling companies using a different definition of Glasgow from the rest of us?
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
No , why would overall result be a concern if no problem with any particular region
Because it's the overall total which matters.
That still does not give any reason to recount if there are big differences in each region. You only recount if there is some doubt about the result, not because you don't like it.
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
I'm sure I have read somewhere that there will not be a recount based on closeness, only on concerns about process.
Me too. The Chief Returning Office or some such person, about 2 months back perhaps. Struck me as distinctly odd, though I now wonder if it is on the Chicago Piano Tuner principle that errors tend to cancel out if you make up a total from a number of different elements.
I'd be interested in the answer on re-counts. The legislation for indie ballot just says something about if the Counting Officer thinks a recount is appropriate. But I've definitely seen other stuff, somewhere official, saying that doesn't include a 'closeness' factor.
If this isn't clear to the public on the night then there could be big trouble.
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
No , why would overall result be a concern if no problem with any particular region
But you don't know there's a problem until you look for it? There have been suspicions in the past in safe seats that thousands of votes were miscounted, but no recount was called for....
Be interesting to know if there are any written guidelines/rules.
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
A thousand votes? You must be joking. It's standard to grant a recount if it's less than 1% in parliamentary elections. Sometimes for an even greater margin...
In the Scottish context, this would equate to around 34,000, maybe 50,000.
Not Scottish related, but you might know Rod - what's the 'closeness' required to be able to request a recount for the purpose of saving your deposit in a Gen Election? 1% of the overall seems too generous, but 1% of the 5% seems a bit tight...
I think it's entirely at the discretion of the returning officer. Don't think there's ever been a court case brought by a disappointed party.
As a matter of interest, you might like to consider how much easier it would be to do that at Westminster, given FPTP and the other differences.
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
From one incident?! Mr Salmond's government is actually very marginal electorally, and that is going to remain the case till the next Scottish election, which is up to the voters.
You must surely know that the Scottish electoral system was fiddled by Labour to prevent any majority government from ever happening, just in case the SNP won and called a referendum. (I know. I know. But it is still very difficult to get a majority, and I will be genuinely surprised if anyone else ever achieves the trick, just because of the mathematics.)
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
I'm sure I have read somewhere that there will not be a recount based on closeness, only on concerns about process.
Me too. The Chief Returning Office or some such person, about 2 months back perhaps. Struck me as distinctly odd, though I now wonder if it is on the Chicago Piano Tuner principle that errors tend to cancel out if you make up a total from a number of different elements.
I'd be interested in the answer on re-counts. The legislation for indie ballot just says something about if the Counting Officer thinks a recount is appropriate. But I've definitely seen other stuff, somewhere official, saying that doesn't include a 'closeness' factor.
If this isn't clear to the public on the night then there could be big trouble.
No re-counts but Darling and Salmond will do a triathlon consisting of Strictly Come Dancing, the Great British Bake Off and X Factor. It could come down to Simon Cowell!!!
“The heads of these companies are rich men, in cahoots with a rich English Tory Prime Minister, to keep Scotland’s poor, poorer through lies and distortions. The power they have now to subvert our democracy will come to an end with a Yes.”
He said BP will have to “learn the meaning of nationalisation” and if it wants access to “monster fields” off Shetland “it will have to learn to bend the knee to a greater power.
Has anybody seen any mysterious fire priestesses in the SNP camp recently?
'I am sure then name had something to do with sheep but it was a long time ago and I am not as young as I was. '
I read somewhere that there were quite a few Welsh distillers until non-conformism swept the principality in the 18th and 19th centuries, and with it temperance.
I'm a Speyside man essentially, however. I have been since I walked the Speyside Way
If you haven't already, you should try Highland Park's Orkney neighbour Scapa. Amazingly smooth, richly sweet -fantastic with food.
@Luckyguy1983 - I was thinking about Scapa myself when I typed that. I haven't had it for a long time (first was a pouring wet day ashore from a yacht in Kirkwall) as I find HP so good, but perhaps I ought to refresh my acquaintance (and myself) sometime.
@taffys - I find them milder - for me - than Islays which I often find rather peaty (horses for courses, nothing wrong with that sometimes).
Come on Scotland! You're halfway to self destructing - one big heave and you'll be over the line.
Hopefully not. Some of us are really worried.
My wife I have to constantly calm down such is her worry.
Probably a very small snapshot at why woman are more inclined to no.
The worry, in my Wife's case is tough to see as i try tell her either way, as a couple we'll find a way forward.
Oh, and before anyone says it's because of 'scaremongering' from Team No, it is not. She loves our life (we are NOT rich but we do have a our first purchased house and food to eat) and feels Salmond and his cohorts are going to ruin it for her and our, hopefully, imminent children. Woman's response may be emotive but my wife only hears the factual strength of an argument.
This post become emotional than I've ever been in my life! Ha.
I'd also like to petition polling companies to release their data as an excel pivot table
They'll never do that [data protection might well kick in at n=1 level], but an online tool for manipulating the data would be a real talking/selling point for the first firm to deliver it.
Mike seems obsessed with over 65s, I think because of certainty to vote. But in ComRes yesterday certainty to vote seems uniform in the 3 45+ bands, but the two younger of those bands are less No ish.
“The heads of these companies are rich men, in cahoots with a rich English Tory Prime Minister, to keep Scotland’s poor, poorer through lies and distortions. The power they have now to subvert our democracy will come to an end with a Yes.”
He said BP will have to “learn the meaning of nationalisation” and if it wants access to “monster fields” off Shetland “it will have to learn to bend the knee to a greater power.
Has anybody seen any mysterious fire priestesses in the SNP camp recently?
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
If the overall result is within a thousand votes or so then I think all regions should have a recount ?
A thousand votes? You must be joking. It's standard to grant a recount if it's less than 1% in parliamentary elections. Sometimes for an even greater margin...
In the Scottish context, this would equate to around 34,000, maybe 50,000.
Not Scottish related, but you might know Rod - what's the 'closeness' required to be able to request a recount for the purpose of saving your deposit in a Gen Election? 1% of the overall seems too generous, but 1% of the 5% seems a bit tight...
I think it's entirely at the discretion of the returning officer. Don't think there's ever been a court case brought by a disappointed party.
I was a Liberal agent in Feb 74 in a seat where we'd either not fought or lost our deposit for over 20 years. At the Agents meeting the Returning Officer said in the event of a recount being requested he'd lock the hall down and start again in the morning. We all nodded. Then I asked what he'd do if someone asked for a recount to save a deposit. He was genuinely astonished, said he'd never thought of that and he'd have to think about it.
In the event we were third with about 20%. So we all went home to watch the other results come in!
@Ishmael_X Give "Glen Moray" a try, it can be had for about £18 a bottle at times, and matured in chardonnay casks. Normal price is about £22, but even then it is worth a go.
I'm a Speyside man essentially, however. I have been since I walked the Speyside Way
If you haven't already, you should try Highland Park's Orkney neighbour Scapa. Amazingly smooth, richly sweet -fantastic with food.
Not tried Scapa but whisky with food can be rather good. I once had dinner with a senior bod who whistled up a bottle of Laphroaig to go with the fish course. It worked surprisingly well, but I have never repeated the experiment.
So people are very sure the DK's will break for the status quo. I can understand why that is the case, the argument is simple. But why then is that not the case with the Scottish Devolution referendum in 1997 where DK's broke more towards Devo than Status Quo.
Good point. But Devo was a fairly low risk option, with a big upside. Indy is an entirely different kettle of carp.
Also worth noting that unweighted, the ICM figures broke
NO: 429 YES: 365
After weighting:
NO: 401 YES: 377
If you want to check weighted vs unweighted look at any UKIP figures !
So, looking at the regional breakdown, this is another poll saying Glasgow is more NO than the rest of the country - excluding DKs Glasgow is listed as being more NO than the South of Scotland! Which is bonkers.
Given that Glasgow is listed as one of the most Yes places by most pundits and bookies are the polling companies using a different definition of Glasgow from the rest of us?
History has shown that the shy voter syndrome usually effects the unfashionable choice more than any other, in 1992 and 1997 that was the Tories, in 2005 it was Labour and after the election it has been the Lib Dems and more recently the Conservatives. In this referendum the unfashionable choice is surely No given that it effectively means little to no change. I think with the spiral of silence adjustment ICM would have No with a comfortable lead. Disappointing but I think that is the way to read the ICM poll. Still hoping that Yes sneaks through next week...
As a matter of interest, you might like to consider how much easier it would be to do that at Westminster, given FPTP and the other differences.
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
From one incident?! Mr Salmond's government is actually very marginal electorally, and that is going to remain the case till the next Scottish election, which is up to the voters.
You must surely know that the Scottish electoral system was fiddled by Labour to prevent any majority government from ever happening, just in case the SNP won and called a referendum. (I know. I know. But it is still very difficult to get a majority, and I will be genuinely surprised if anyone else ever achieves the trick, just because of the mathematics.)
We lack the "Cult of the Leader" and the unquestioning followers. Nor do our politicians employ a panel of "yes men" to applaud and clap The Leader in press conferences whilst he denies reality and ridicules journalists ....
A few families with facepainted bairns?! the Unionists must be really, really frightened. What are they going to do, supervise them while they vote?
The comparison with apartheid is not only stupendously offensive both to England and to people who suffered under apartheid, but is just so thuddingly spoiled, entitled, and ignorant. Were the last 3 SA presidents before apartheid ended either black or of black descent? Did black South Africans enjoy greater democratic representation than their white neighbours? Or have more public money spent upon them? Was black nationalism encouraged, endorsed and subsidised by public bodies?
Dear God..... and he is the Number Two in the SNP?
No. Not at all. It's like a journalist writing an article on the policies of Mrs Thatcher's second term in office based on asking Ted Heath's views on politics. Just like that. Messrs Sillars and Salmond split long ago on major policy issues and Mr Sillars' activity is best seen as just one thread amongst many in the Yes campaign.
Edit: Mr S is the recent widower of the late Margo McDonald, who became an independent MSP after splitting with the SNP (can't remember if before or after she was elected).
Westminster politics polls and pundits are pointless for the next week. As frankly are the betting markets. Puzzlement as to why the odds seem so heavily against Yes despite the polls - isn't it the same answer as the shock and awe response to neck and neck polls?
We English - especially establishment types - didn't take the Scots viewpoints on anything seriously, didn't understand that they are a separate nation, assumed that with a bit of hectoring they would get back in line and promptly forgot about it. The betting markets simply reflect of complacent arrogance.
Its now so close that I'm forming the view that yes or no Westminster politics are about to change significantly. A yes obviously is the 20MT option that should sink Cameron and may take the government with him in the short term, and may sink Milliband and Labour in the medium term. But a narrow no won't be much better, with the constitution dominating the autumn as a hurried fix is saught. Note how Farage proposed a federal UK earlier - its been my strong personal preference for a long time, and frankly will seem like the sensible solution to both give the Scots most of what they want and also win over trad Tories not looking for revolution but up for an English parliament. Its another masterstroke.
Still think Yes will win. Still desperately hope I'm wrong.
Tell her not to worry you should have 2 years to decide which subject you will be.
Many at work are scottish by birth and lived and worked most of their life in England, I imagine they will have to choose eventually if there is a yes vote.
The overall result could be very close, while no individual region is close...
See the problem?
It happened with the 2004 Euros in the East Midlands. Kilroy Silk demanded a recount because he was only slightly behind Roger Helmer. Didn't change the result in the end.
Heh, the shy No theory may have some marginal traction however far more interesting is that the poor and the young - far more likely to vote Yes - don't have landlines. Add that to the fact that those newly registered are poor and young and you start to see a pattern of likely Yes votes not being picked up by polling methodologies.
It has been interesting reading the take on here which seems pretty much Tory and little England for the most part. Many Scots, including myself, feel that the average Scot will be far better off if we didn't have to subsidise the South and especially London.
Britain is broke and reduced to money printing. Government debt is being sold to banks who are creating money out of thin air and that is what is financing Westminster. That's why the broke banks and the broke government are trying to terrorise Scots - because it's future oil income which is guaranteeing government debt repayments to markets. And that's only where there is a market for Uk debt and no merely currency swaps with the other money printers such as the US in order to pretend that market exists.
We want out before the Titanic sinks and surely taking the oil with us will mean rUK will be on the ropes along with Spain and Italy and Scotland heading in the direction of fabulously wealthy Norway..
The southern myths of their own enduring wealth and the dependency of the native colonies is a fantastic source for jokes but it's sort of sad in a way.
In any case, it's the 65+ keeping the No vote afloat - they won't be around for long..
So people are very sure the DK's will break for the status quo. I can understand why that is the case, the argument is simple. But why then is that not the case with the Scottish Devolution referendum in 1997 where DK's broke more towards Devo than Status Quo.
Good point. But Devo was a fairly low risk option, with a big upside. Indy is an entirely different kettle of carp.
Also worth noting that unweighted, the ICM figures broke
NO: 429 YES: 365
After weighting:
NO: 401 YES: 377
So without weighting it is 54% to 46%. Why can none of the pollsters find enough Yes voters? Is there a historical basis for this?
Westminster politics polls and pundits are pointless for the next week. As frankly are the betting markets. Puzzlement as to why the odds seem so heavily against Yes despite the polls - isn't it the same answer as the shock and awe response to neck and neck polls?
We English - especially establishment types - didn't take the Scots viewpoints on anything seriously, didn't understand that they are a separate nation, assumed that with a bit of hectoring they would get back in line and promptly forgot about it. The betting markets simply reflect of complacent arrogance.
Its now so close that I'm forming the view that yes or no Westminster politics are about to change significantly. A yes obviously is the 20MT option that should sink Cameron and may take the government with him in the short term, and may sink Milliband and Labour in the medium term. But a narrow no won't be much better, with the constitution dominating the autumn as a hurried fix is saught. Note how Farage proposed a federal UK earlier - its been my strong personal preference for a long time, and frankly will seem like the sensible solution to both give the Scots most of what they want and also win over trad Tories not looking for revolution but up for an English parliament. Its another masterstroke.
Still think Yes will win. Still desperately hope I'm wrong.
Utter rubbish about English arrogance. The scots get a vote on being independent from the rest of us (we don't) and we get called arrogant. Jesus it shows how the English left really don't like England if that is what you can come up with in your 'analysis'
That's the Tories first lead with Ipsos-Mori since December 2011 and Vetogasm
Tories tired of taking one for the Union saying 'f*ck it'?
Although I'm an unabashed unionist I think the No campaign tactic of suggesting Labour will win the next GE is ludicrous and has back-fired. Ed has gone up there and looks an irrelevance , rather like Man U since Fergie left. Ruth Davidson on the other hand - quite impressive.
You have my every sympathy. We all have our worries and fears and we're with you. Seeing demagoue effwit politicians peddle their shit and ruining people's lives is hard to bear - or forgive. Vote NO. And give the Mrs a cuddle.
Heh, the shy No theory may have some marginal traction however far more interesting is that the poor and the young - far more likely to vote Yes - don't have landlines. Add that to the fact that those newly registered are poor and young and you start to see a pattern of likely Yes votes not being picked up by polling methodologies.
It has been interesting reading the take on here which seems pretty much Tory and little England for the most part. Many Scots, including myself, feel that the average Scot will be far better off if we didn't have to subsidise the South and especially London.
Britain is broke and reduced to money printing. Government debt is being sold to banks who are creating money out of thin air and that is what is financing Westminster. That's why the broke banks and the broke government are trying to terrorise Scots - because it's future oil income which is guaranteeing government debt repayments to markets. And that's only where there is a market for Uk debt and no merely currency swaps with the other money printers such as the US in order to pretend that market exists.
We want out before the Titanic sinks and surely taking the oil with us will mean rUK will be on the ropes along with Spain and Italy and Scotland heading in the direction of fabulously wealthy Norway..
The southern myths of their own enduring wealth and the dependency of the native colonies is a fantastic source for jokes but it's sort of sad in a way.
In any case, it's the 65+ keeping the No vote afloat - they won't be around for long..
Just an FYI, oil tax revenue was just £4bn in the previous financial year. If you believe that this small level of income underpins £120bn worth of Gilts that were written last year then I think the mental asylum is missing a patient.
Comments
https://assets.digital.cabinet-office.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/image_data/file/26100/10.png
The government has actually managed to find a worst place to mass import from than Pakistan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29174309
Azerbaijan must be 2016 then.
India, which was 'taking a year out', has unsurprisingly not returned, as it's a rubbish track and the teams hated the intrusive bureaucracy.
Penderyn
http://www.welsh-whisky.co.uk/
In the Scottish context, this would equate to around 34,000, maybe 50,000.
Saw David Milliband coming out of Haymarket station earlier.
Ipsos Mori puts Tories ahead of Lab for first time since 2011 CON 34 LAB 33 LIB DEM 7 UKIP 15. Not a great help in #indyref
Anyway, looking for value in the betting markets, I've made a small spread punt, buying Yes% at spreadex. Current odds are;
SELL43.75% - 45.75 BUY
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3445/Over-half-say-UKIP-raises-key-issues-that-other-parties-dont-but-only-14-want-their-MP-to-defect.aspx
.@SimonDanczuk accuses Greater Manchester Police of "lots of talk, very few prosecutions" over child abuse allegations #wato."
Same training seminars as SYP or is that tin foil hat stuff?
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3445/Over-half-say-UKIP-raises-key-issues-that-other-parties-dont-but-only-14-want-their-MP-to-defect.aspx
% score bets required!
I might try those.
I'm a Speyside man essentially, however. I have been since I walked the Speyside Way
So that's cross over with Ipsos-Mori.
An English Parliament with the same devolved powers as they are offering to Scotland.
Thanks for that, but it wasn't what I was thinking of. Penderyn only started up in 2000 and I remember drinking a Welsh whisky whilst on a holiday there in the late eighties. I am sure then name had something to do with sheep but it was a long time ago and I am not as young as I was.
Given that Glasgow is listed as one of the most Yes places by most pundits and bookies are the polling companies using a different definition of Glasgow from the rest of us?
Amusing the claims Scotland will collapse if yes, the Baltics all seem to cope. Hope the false scaremongering doesn't win out.
If this isn't clear to the public on the night then there could be big trouble.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_Bills/Scottish Independence Referendum Bill/b25s4-introd.pdf
My prediction by council area:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0
You must surely know that the Scottish electoral system was fiddled by Labour to prevent any majority government from ever happening, just in case the SNP won and called a referendum. (I know. I know. But it is still very difficult to get a majority, and I will be genuinely surprised if anyone else ever achieves the trick, just because of the mathematics.) A few families with facepainted bairns?! the Unionists must be really, really frightened. What are they going to do, supervise them while they vote?
It could come down to Simon Cowell!!!
He said BP will have to “learn the meaning of nationalisation” and if it wants access to “monster fields” off Shetland “it will have to learn to bend the knee to a greater power.
Has anybody seen any mysterious fire priestesses in the SNP camp recently?
Could you be thinking of "Sheep Dip"?
A popular whisky in certain rural areas, and often featured on tax returns. ;-)
I read somewhere that there were quite a few Welsh distillers until non-conformism swept the principality in the 18th and 19th centuries, and with it temperance.
@taffys - I find them milder - for me - than Islays which I often find rather peaty (horses for courses, nothing wrong with that sometimes).
My wife I have to constantly calm down such is her worry.
Probably a very small snapshot at why woman are more inclined to no.
The worry, in my Wife's case is tough to see as i try tell her either way, as a couple we'll find a way forward.
Oh, and before anyone says it's because of 'scaremongering' from Team No, it is not. She loves our life (we are NOT rich but we do have a our first purchased house and food to eat) and feels Salmond and his cohorts are going to ruin it for her and our, hopefully, imminent children. Woman's response may be emotive but my wife only hears the factual strength of an argument.
This post become emotional than I've ever been in my life! Ha.
How fast will money drain south now?
Will bear Scapa in mind - thanks
In the event we were third with about 20%. So we all went home to watch the other results come in!
Give "Glen Moray" a try, it can be had for about £18 a bottle at times, and matured in chardonnay casks.
Normal price is about £22, but even then it is worth a go.
If Scotland best case scenario is Cuba without the sun & rusty 1950's American cars, England would end up as Singapore without the humidity.
What's not to like unless you sell chewing gum?
This Devo plus has awoken English Tories
Or this is just MOE
Edit: Mr S is the recent widower of the late Margo McDonald, who became an independent MSP after splitting with the SNP (can't remember if before or after she was elected).
We English - especially establishment types - didn't take the Scots viewpoints on anything seriously, didn't understand that they are a separate nation, assumed that with a bit of hectoring they would get back in line and promptly forgot about it. The betting markets simply reflect of complacent arrogance.
Its now so close that I'm forming the view that yes or no Westminster politics are about to change significantly. A yes obviously is the 20MT option that should sink Cameron and may take the government with him in the short term, and may sink Milliband and Labour in the medium term. But a narrow no won't be much better, with the constitution dominating the autumn as a hurried fix is saught. Note how Farage proposed a federal UK earlier - its been my strong personal preference for a long time, and frankly will seem like the sensible solution to both give the Scots most of what they want and also win over trad Tories not looking for revolution but up for an English parliament. Its another masterstroke.
Still think Yes will win. Still desperately hope I'm wrong.
I really hope that it is a NO outcome
http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/scottish-independence-salmond-sillars-team-up-2612937.html
Tell her not to worry you should have 2 years to decide which subject you will be.
Many at work are scottish by birth and lived and worked most of their life in England, I imagine they will have to choose eventually if there is a yes vote.
It has been interesting reading the take on here which seems pretty much Tory and little England for the most part. Many Scots, including myself, feel that the average Scot will be far better off if we didn't have to subsidise the South and especially London.
Britain is broke and reduced to money printing. Government debt is being sold to banks who are creating money out of thin air and that is what is financing Westminster. That's why the broke banks and the broke government are trying to terrorise Scots - because it's future oil income which is guaranteeing government debt repayments to markets. And that's only where there is a market for Uk debt and no merely currency swaps with the other money printers such as the US in order to pretend that market exists.
We want out before the Titanic sinks and surely taking the oil with us will mean rUK will be on the ropes along with Spain and Italy and Scotland heading in the direction of fabulously wealthy Norway..
The southern myths of their own enduring wealth and the dependency of the native colonies is a fantastic source for jokes but it's sort of sad in a way.
In any case, it's the 65+ keeping the No vote afloat - they won't be around for long..
You have my every sympathy. We all have our worries and fears and we're with you. Seeing demagoue effwit politicians peddle their shit and ruining people's lives is hard to bear - or forgive. Vote NO. And give the Mrs a cuddle.