Salmond really has played some of this Banking stuff disastrously. His campaign has been so desperate to remove any suggestion of negative consequences of independence (even though, when pressed, they sometimes muse about some unspecific "tough times" although usually on basis of tackling pre-existing economic problems) that he's allowed something which should be seen as a positive for an Independent Scotland - a smaller banking sector posing minimal systemic risk to the country - as something which wouldn't happen (and which to suggest it would is 'scaremongering'.
NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3)
Good for NO - And that's before today's mass exodus announcement of Scottish Banks and financial institutions in the event of a YES vote - interesting times.
NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3)
Good for NO - And that's before today's mass exodus announcement of Scottish Banks and financial institutions in the event of a YES vote - interesting times.
Talking about tonight's yougov polls: "Peter @macbloscaidh 5m @georgegalloway says Tories will be out in May. Where does he get this info from? Who trusts Labour?
Only one way to get rid of Tories #YES"
Shows the importance of GE 2015 polls on the indyref.
NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3)
Good for NO - And that's before today's mass exodus announcement of Scottish Banks and financial institutions in the event of a YES vote - interesting times.
The fieldwork did straddle today.
The fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday inclusive.
Cheers TSE for the clarification - I doubt today's news however will have resonated enough to be fully picked up in the polls quite honestly.
And then I made myself a hot chocolate rather than lumping more on at 5.7. Dumbarse, it's now down to 5.1
It will settle around 5 or 5.2, is my guess.
This is not over yet, by any means. Easy to forget that YouGov is still painfully close.
But the trend is for NO.
The reaction to Survation was immeadiatly out to 4.2 (starting from 3) in wake of the announcement then slowly crept up to 5 before coming back down to 4.4 prior to YouGov. I wouldn't be surprised if it climbed all the way to 6 by tomorrow.
Scare 'reality', rather than scare 'tactics', I think...
Yep. It's quite infuriating how everything the BT side says is simply dismissed as scaremongering.
And apparently everything BT say and do is a great boost for the yes campaign, and any criticism of the Nats is "bullying scotland," because they speak for all the people.
Icarus must have been a Scottish Nationalist. "How dare you tell me where I can and can't fly!"
Whilst all the bank moves and their bronze plates were the news, an interesting sector to mention are the Scottish based stockbrokers & DFMs - an english client with money invested with one of them has received a letter this week, saying the offices and people will move to England should independence happen.
I've not seen the letter but is that because the FCA/FSCS/FOS wouldn't cover the firm if it was in an independent Scotland? Genuine question and indeed one I need to find out damn quick for my client(s)....will try and get hold of the letter!!
Scare 'reality', rather than scare 'tactics', I think...
Quite. Darling (I think) put it very well. Warning someone that they are about to be run down by a bus is not scare tactics.
The sad thing is that, as a UKIP, sympathiser, I agree that there is a valid case to be made and could have imagined myself voting YES if I lived up there and that case had been made. The case is that running your own affairs is worth the suffering and hardship that will inevitably come in the first 20 or so years.
However YES seem to me to have been pretending that there will be no pain or hardship, which was to my mind an absurd strategy, and only worked while YES were so far behind in the polls that "lie low and do not feed the troll" was the best strategy from the NO camp.
Once a close poll appeared the NO camp had no choice other to go in with both barrels on the fiscal suffering and hardship that would result ie: consequences had to be clearly spelled out even if it enraged the nats and gave them publicity.
The recent very high profile illustration of those consequences, (from banking down to supermarket chains upping prices in Scotland to reflect local costs due to a more dispersed population that would no longer be absorbed in whole UK operations once the country split), were perceived as credible by people with something to lose (rightly in my opinion) which has holed YES below the waterline.
Strange how perceptions change. If 3 months ago I'd said there would be a 52N-48Y Yougov a week before the referendum I'd have been laughed off here.
Not by me, but with hysterical optimism on one side, and hysterical pessimism (not least from me) on the other at one mere poll for Yes, the strangeness of a 52-48 to No being celebrated where once it would, to some, seem laughable, is small scale in comparison.
NO really need the supermarkets to emphasize the price rise thing (helped by the fact that everything they are saying is true: prices will rise)
This will seal the female vote: women are risk averse and unpersuaded by Braveheartism. And thus, NO will win the day.
Still all too play for, but we could be turning this around.
If they want to see what independence will do to their cost of living they only have to try shopping in Dublin.
I live near one of the busiest ASDA stores in the country in Strabane, the majority of customers come over from Donegal because prices in the UK are much lower. A similar effect could happen to Carlisle and Berwick if there is a yes.
At work a discussion as to who to use for the company pension scheme.
One requirement it is agreed is preferable on such a long term item is that the pensions provider is not Scottish.
Even if the vote is NO I suspect long term damage has been done to what might be called British national consciousness.
England and Scotland are now separated, the only decision will be whether they live in different houses or unhappily share the same house.
I think proper and full separation is now for the best.
Yes I think you're right. This is the legacy whatever happens come Friday morning. The question is now being floated about what amounts to " political risk ", which probably hasn't been seriously asked in this context since about 1760 and the accession of the ( non German ) George III . Not saying the sky will fall in because it won't , but Salmond has damaged his nation no doubt I'm afraid.
Such is my love for my country, I suggest the Queen makes him a Duke, if it turns out he has saved the Union.
And I LOATHE Gordon Brown.
Go Gordo!!!
I totally agree. Apparently he is considering becoming an MSP -which I think would be great (as long as he can be kept away from anything economic). I think another 'big beast' would be good for the Scottish Parliament.
Hardly scare tactics pointing out that going independent might make you worse off financially. The YES campaign by denying any negative impacts have made people think whether they are being sold a pup. If there is uncertainty following independence some companies will decide to move and some jobs will go. Interest rates may go up making mortgages more expensive.
Such is my love for my country, I suggest the Queen makes him a Duke, if it turns out he has saved the Union.
And I LOATHE Gordon Brown.
Go Gordo!!!
I totally agree. Apparently he is considering becoming an MSP -which I think would be great (as long as he can be kept away from anything economic). I think another 'big beast' would be good for the Scottish Parliament.
It'd be like those Ray Harryhausen dinosaur films every FMQ ...
At work a discussion as to who to use for the company pension scheme.
One requirement it is agreed is preferable on such a long term item is that the pensions provider is not Scottish.
Even if the vote is NO I suspect long term damage has been done to what might be called British national consciousness.
England and Scotland are now separated, the only decision will be whether they live in different houses or unhappily share the same house.
I think proper and full separation is now for the best.
Or we can try to reverse some of the reasons for that, since the oil is going to run out in 10 years, parliament should merge the sports and media markets of the UK.
Such is my love for my country, I suggest the Queen makes him a Duke, if it turns out he has saved the Union.
And I LOATHE Gordon Brown.
Go Gordo!!!
He also saved the world economy. Remember the leadership he showed chairing the G20 shortly after the financial crash. If more banks had been allowed to go bust, I am not sure what state we would currently be in.
New poll disappointing for Salmond, but not a big deal. Still all to play for. But AS had a bad day, promising membership of the EU.
Rupert Murdoch having a bad day it seems.
Quite - Dear Old Rupert appears to have nailed his colours to a broken mast.
And his support for Independence will also have alienated any Tories who still supported / tolerated him, so now he is pretty much friendless in the UK.
New poll disappointing for Salmond, but not a big deal. Still all to play for. But AS had a bad day, promising membership of the EU.
Rupert Murdoch having a bad day it seems.
Quite - Dear Old Rupert appears to have nailed his colours to a broken mast.
And his support for Independence will also have alienated any Tories who still supported / tolerated him, so now he is pretty much friendless in the UK.
Broon saved the world in 2009. In 2014, he saved the United Kingdom.
What a man !
Thats the tragedy of Brown, under it all, at root he is a decent man whos heart is in the right place, worth ten blairs, cleggs, or camerons. Wholly wrong type of person to be PM though in my opinion and he had to go.
New poll disappointing for Salmond, but not a big deal. Still all to play for. But AS had a bad day, promising membership of the EU.
Been continuing my tour of separatists regions in Europe.
Lunch yesterday in Catalonia - where I got an extremely fierce response from a Catalan nationalists who was very upset that his Scottish born wife wasn't able to vote...
Dinner this evening with a very well plugged in Frenchman (as establishment as they get over there). Said there is absolutely no way that Scotland will be allowed to join the EU. Too many people have a vested interest: in the event that there is independence then it *must* fail and fail badly and publicly otherwise all the other regions will demand their independence as well*
* He was keen to get rid of Corsica though, but no one wants it...
Broon saved the world in 2009. In 2014, he saved the United Kingdom.
What a man !
Thats the tragedy of Brown, under it all, at root he is a decent man whos heart is in the right place, worth ten blairs, cleggs, or camerons. Wholly wrong type of person to be PM though in my opinion and he had to go.
If the SNP implodes, Brown might become scottish first minister.
Strange how perceptions change. If 3 months ago I'd said there would be a 52N-48Y Yougov a week before the referendum I'd have been laughed off here.
Correct. If the result is 52/48 No, that's an extremely good outcome for Scottish nationalism.
It's not a win, but it forces us to thoroughly reconsider how the UK is governed.
Which would make it a good result for English nationalism, as it's the English that get screwed by devolution. At least this may now get serious discussion.
Strange how perceptions change. If 3 months ago I'd said there would be a 52N-48Y Yougov a week before the referendum I'd have been laughed off here.
Indeed
It seems commonplace on here to consider steady progress from those they disagree with as failure
That's a good point that's not made often enough on here.
Thankfully I am not the only one that thinks Scotland being split down the middle a week out is cause for worry. I think No will edge it but this isn't going away. Also men decisively in favour so there is a gender split too.
Still, good work by Brown. He does seem to come into his own during crisis situations
All very encouraging. Just completed a very satisfactory evening canvass in Moray. Truth be told, always going to be a good No area but it always nice to have people practically falling on you with gratitude for knocking on their door. The Yessers have the posters. We have the voters.
(In all seriousness, we will be fighting this right to the finish. No complacency. Salmond remains a dangerous and formidable politician. But I reckon the No voters are seriously motivated.)
New poll disappointing for Salmond, but not a big deal. Still all to play for. But AS had a bad day, promising membership of the EU.
Been continuing my tour of separatists regions in Europe.
Lunch yesterday in Catalonia - where I got an extremely fierce response from a Catalan nationalists who was very upset that his Scottish born wife wasn't able to vote...
Dinner this evening with a very well plugged in Frenchman (as establishment as they get over there). Said there is absolutely no way that Scotland will be allowed to join the EU. Too many people have a vested interest: in the event that there is independence then it *must* fail and fail badly and publicly otherwise all the other regions will demand their independence as well*
* He was keen to get rid of Corsica though, but no one wants it...
I'm not surprised. If scotland goes, so does catalonia, venice and flanders.
Still, good work by Brown. He does seem to come into his own during crisis situations
I have no love for Gordo. I hated him as PM, and delighted when he was defenestrated, but... the thought of him at Holyrood smacking Eck around is not unattractive.
Broon saved the world in 2009. In 2014, he saved the United Kingdom.
What a man !
Thats the tragedy of Brown, under it all, at root he is a decent man whos heart is in the right place, worth ten blairs, cleggs, or camerons. Wholly wrong type of person to be PM though in my opinion and he had to go.
If the SNP implodes, Brown might become scottish first minister.
If No wins and Salmond is left as a busted flush, I cannot see the SNP doing well in 2015 GE. The Tories may do well, particularly with the LDs also doing poorly. The Tories seem re-energised by their campaigning, so may be some gains.
At work a discussion as to who to use for the company pension scheme.
One requirement it is agreed is preferable on such a long term item is that the pensions provider is not Scottish.
Even if the vote is NO I suspect long term damage has been done to what might be called British national consciousness.
England and Scotland are now separated, the only decision will be whether they live in different houses or unhappily share the same house.
I think proper and full separation is now for the best.
However, a win for No may revive a common patriotism.
A common patriotism about what ???
The United Kingdom had a purpose when it was about defending the Protestant religion or stopping a foreign invasion or building an Empire.
Now its about nothing more than attempting to live at the expense of the other lot.
The Union is DEAD, its time to bury it.
Scots are now to me somewhere between Northern and Southern Irish in their degree of foreignness. The ScotsNats recognise this, the BritNats don't.
The Union is not dead. The only reasons of the SNP's existence is oil, scotish sports and scotish media. The oil will run out in 10 years and you only need a law to merge the premier league and the scottish league and to unify the scotish media with english media.
Strange how perceptions change. If 3 months ago I'd said there would be a 52N-48Y Yougov a week before the referendum I'd have been laughed off here.
Correct. If the result is 52/48 No, that's an extremely good outcome for Scottish nationalism.
It's not a win, but it forces us to thoroughly reconsider how the UK is governed.
Oh what the heck...I'm going to predict that the actual result will be No winning by a comfortable 10%.
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
I'd go along with that. Alone in the cold reality of the voting booth and faced with Salmond's magical mystery tour a lot of polling Yessers will opt for No at the last minute.
Not a big fan generally, but has anyone clocked how handsome Stalin was as a young man?!
Historical Pics (@HistoricalPics) 11/09/2014 21:30 Young Joseph Stalin pic.twitter.com/DSfL98Syn2
That picture always amuses me. There's something about historical figures visible in a way so totally divorced from either their earned reputation or merely the fixated image we have of them, that always tickles me. Try googling images of Gandhi as a lawyer in his younger days, it's incredible for some bizarre reason.
Still, good work by Brown. He does seem to come into his own during crisis situations
I have no love for Gordo. I hated him as PM, and delighted when he was defenestrated, but... the thought of him at Holyrood smacking Eck around is not unattractive.
Agreed. Would give him a new purpose too, rather than languishing on the back benches, and probably a lot more exciting than being in the lords. Although, re: SeanT's idea, can an ennobled person be FM? :')
A key reason for the renewed doubts about independence is fear of what might happen to people’s bank accounts. The biggest single advantage of the Union cited by “no” voters is that the UK would have the resources to step in if Scotland faced another crisis of the kind that erupted in 2008.
All very encouraging. Just completed a very satisfactory evening canvass in Moray. Truth be told, always going to be a good No area but it always nice to have people practically falling on you with gratitude for knocking on their door. The Yessers have the posters. We have the voters.
(In all seriousness, we will be fighting this right to the finish. No complacency. Salmond remains a dangerous and formidable politician. But I reckon the No voters are seriously motivated.)
Good for you. I'm not against Scottish independence per se at all, but the sheer blinding idiocy of what the Nats are peddling disturbs me greatly, as I sincerely believe a lot of innocent folk would suffer. I'm also disturbed by the whole fanatical demagoguery vibe that I'm picking up from down here. So good for you for sticking to your guns.
Broon saved the world in 2009. In 2014, he saved the United Kingdom.
What a man !
Thats the tragedy of Brown, under it all, at root he is a decent man whos heart is in the right place, worth ten blairs, cleggs, or camerons. Wholly wrong type of person to be PM though in my opinion and he had to go.
If the SNP implodes, Brown might become scottish first minister.
If No wins and Salmond is left as a busted flush, I cannot see the SNP doing well in 2015 GE. The Tories may do well, particularly with the LDs also doing poorly. The Tories seem re-energised by their campaigning, so may be some gains.
I predict the Tories will gain 2 or 3 seats in scotland in 2015. The only region in Britain where they will gain seats and votes.
I can't help feeling that the volume of rank-breaking that's gone on over the last couple of days by various big names in banking/retail etc would spook the Hell out of any soft Yessers and DKs.
There's just too much of it to hand-wave away - and Comical Ally isn't providing any form of rebuttal bar hand-waving and deflection.
It's just shining a very bright spotlight on his total lack of detail.
Hope we get another batch of names coming out against Yes over the next couple of days. There's nothing to be scared of now the dam has broken.
Strange how perceptions change. If 3 months ago I'd said there would be a 52N-48Y Yougov a week before the referendum I'd have been laughed off here.
Correct. If the result is 52/48 No, that's an extremely good outcome for Scottish nationalism.
It's not a win, but it forces us to thoroughly reconsider how the UK is governed.
Oh what the heck...I'm going to predict that the actual result will be No winning by a comfortable 10%.
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
I'd go along with that. Alone in the cold reality of the voting booth and faced with Salmond's magical mystery tour a lot of polling Yessers will opt for No at the last minute.
At work a discussion as to who to use for the company pension scheme.
One requirement it is agreed is preferable on such a long term item is that the pensions provider is not Scottish.
Even if the vote is NO I suspect long term damage has been done to what might be called British national consciousness.
England and Scotland are now separated, the only decision will be whether they live in different houses or unhappily share the same house.
I think proper and full separation is now for the best.
However, a win for No may revive a common patriotism.
A common patriotism about what ???
The United Kingdom had a purpose when it was about defending the Protestant religion or stopping a foreign invasion or building an Empire.
Now its about nothing more than attempting to live at the expense of the other lot.
The Union is DEAD, its time to bury it.
Scots are now to me somewhere between Northern and Southern Irish in their degree of foreignness. The ScotsNats recognise this, the BritNats don't.
If a majority of people believe the Union still benefits its people, then it still has a purpose. Does England lack a purpose and should die because we don't need to fight off Vikings anymore? The Union will need intense changes, in fairly short order even in the event of a No vote, if it is to survive much longer, that much is clear, but that doesn't mean it has no purpose.
Also, BritNats may not recognize the foreignness of the Scots that you, and plenty others, feel, because they do not feel it. I certainly don't. When a majority of people feel as you do (and it is at the very least close to that in Scotland, that is true), then the Union will indeed have no purpose, but that is hopefully not the case. Neither side is right or wrong to think that, it's just a question of which view is the most commonly held. If a majority do not feel as you do, that does not mean they don't recognize the reality of that foreignness, it means that, for the moment, for that majority it is not yet reality.
Comments
TSE was first with tonight's good news. Now on Radio 3 Bruch's Scottish Fantasia played by Alex Salmond.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/15/the-2011-holyrood-election-when-scottish-labour-moved-from-a-14pc-yougov-lead-to-being-18pc-behind-in-just-11-weeks/
Rule Britannia.
At work a discussion as to who to use for the company pension scheme.
One requirement it is agreed is preferable on such a long term item is that the pensions provider is not Scottish.
Even if the vote is NO I suspect long term damage has been done to what might be called British national consciousness.
England and Scotland are now separated, the only decision will be whether they live in different houses or unhappily share the same house.
I think proper and full separation is now for the best.
The ICM phone poll should clear things up a bit.
Good for NO - And that's before today's mass exodus announcement of Scottish Banks and financial institutions in the event of a YES vote - interesting times.
The fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday inclusive.
"Peter @macbloscaidh 5m
@georgegalloway says Tories will be out in May. Where does he get this info from? Who trusts Labour?
Only one way to get rid of Tories
#YES"
Shows the importance of GE 2015 polls on the indyref.
Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 42s
New poll disappointing for Salmond, but not a big deal. Still all to play for. But AS had a bad day, promising membership of the EU.
Icarus must have been a Scottish Nationalist. "How dare you tell me where I can and can't fly!"
Support for Independent Scotland on the slide
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxSCqd7IgAENfi9.jpg
I've not seen the letter but is that because the FCA/FSCS/FOS wouldn't cover the firm if it was in an independent Scotland? Genuine question and indeed one I need to find out damn quick for my client(s)....will try and get hold of the letter!!
The sad thing is that, as a UKIP, sympathiser, I agree that there is a valid case to be made and could have imagined myself voting YES if I lived up there and that case had been made. The case is that running your own affairs is worth the suffering and hardship that will inevitably come in the first 20 or so years.
However YES seem to me to have been pretending that there will be no pain or hardship, which was to my mind an absurd strategy, and only worked while YES were so far behind in the polls that "lie low and do not feed the troll" was the best strategy from the NO camp.
Once a close poll appeared the NO camp had no choice other to go in with both barrels on the fiscal suffering and hardship that would result ie: consequences had to be clearly spelled out even if it enraged the nats and gave them publicity.
The recent very high profile illustration of those consequences, (from banking down to supermarket chains upping prices in Scotland to reflect local costs due to a more dispersed population that would no longer be absorbed in whole UK operations once the country split), were perceived as credible by people with something to lose (rightly in my opinion) which has holed YES below the waterline.
Game Over. I reckon Yes will be lucky to make 40%
I live near one of the busiest ASDA stores in the country in Strabane, the majority of customers come over from Donegal because prices in the UK are much lower. A similar effect could happen to Carlisle and Berwick if there is a yes.
It seems commonplace on here to consider steady progress from those they disagree with as failure
What a man !
It's not a win, but it forces us to thoroughly reconsider how the UK is governed.
Lunch yesterday in Catalonia - where I got an extremely fierce response from a Catalan nationalists who was very upset that his Scottish born wife wasn't able to vote...
Dinner this evening with a very well plugged in Frenchman (as establishment as they get over there). Said there is absolutely no way that Scotland will be allowed to join the EU. Too many people have a vested interest: in the event that there is independence then it *must* fail and fail badly and publicly otherwise all the other regions will demand their independence as well*
* He was keen to get rid of Corsica though, but no one wants it...
The @YouGov #indyref polling graphic
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxSF7_1IgAIy8Nm.png
Thankfully I am not the only one that thinks Scotland being split down the middle a week out is cause for worry. I think No will edge it but this isn't going away. Also men decisively in favour so there is a gender split too.
Still, good work by Brown. He does seem to come into his own during crisis situations
Also Labour's election software is getting a run in real circumstances.
(In all seriousness, we will be fighting this right to the finish. No complacency. Salmond remains a dangerous and formidable politician. But I reckon the No voters are seriously motivated.)
That's a very brave prediction.
Historical Pics (@HistoricalPics)
11/09/2014 21:30
Young Joseph Stalin pic.twitter.com/DSfL98Syn2
If scotland goes, so does catalonia, venice and flanders.
The United Kingdom had a purpose when it was about defending the Protestant religion or stopping a foreign invasion or building an Empire.
Now its about nothing more than attempting to live at the expense of the other lot.
The Union is DEAD, its time to bury it.
Scots are now to me somewhere between Northern and Southern Irish in their degree of foreignness. The ScotsNats recognise this, the BritNats don't.
@Gin @SeanF Sense among the crazed
The only reasons of the SNP's existence is oil, scotish sports and scotish media.
The oil will run out in 10 years and you only need a law to merge the premier league and the scottish league and to unify the scotish media with english media.
In which case expect to hear from JackW on 19th!
Scrapheap_as_was • Posts: 2,159
September 8
Gordon Broown having saved the world single-handedly is now going to save the Union too.
Rest easy everyone.
A key reason for the renewed doubts about independence is fear of what might happen to people’s bank accounts. The biggest single advantage of the Union cited by “no” voters is that the UK would have the resources to step in if Scotland faced another crisis of the kind that erupted in 2008.
The only region in Britain where they will gain seats and votes.
There's just too much of it to hand-wave away - and Comical Ally isn't providing any form of rebuttal bar hand-waving and deflection.
It's just shining a very bright spotlight on his total lack of detail.
Hope we get another batch of names coming out against Yes over the next couple of days. There's nothing to be scared of now the dam has broken.
Also, BritNats may not recognize the foreignness of the Scots that you, and plenty others, feel, because they do not feel it. I certainly don't. When a majority of people feel as you do (and it is at the very least close to that in Scotland, that is true), then the Union will indeed have no purpose, but that is hopefully not the case. Neither side is right or wrong to think that, it's just a question of which view is the most commonly held. If a majority do not feel as you do, that does not mean they don't recognize the reality of that foreignness, it means that, for the moment, for that majority it is not yet reality.
Bread star to stand in Clacton
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29163450