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  • Tory Voters taking one for the Union

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 35s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one, now six points ahead: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 16%

    It's all that good publicity for Gordon...
    The sight of the former PM stepping in where the current PM is doing the square root of f-all?
  • kle4 said:

    Interesting developments. What they will demonstrate, in the event of a No vote, is that this is very much Scotland suing for the divorce. RUK is practically begging Scotland to stay in the relationship. The fall-out, which will undoubtedly be bad economically, will be Scotland's responsibility and her responsibility alone. It will mean that there will be absolutely no need for the RUK to have any compunction about driving an extremely hard deal. Rejected suitors tend to react badly.

    If the politicians do what they say they are going to do, the following will happen.

    1) Scottish request for a currency union will be turned down flat.
    2) Salmond will renege on Scotland's share of national debt.
    3) Huge market turbulence will damage everyone and the Scottish "transition" via the Panama model will look completely impossible.
    4) Scotland will have to establish central bank and own currency in the worst possible consequences. Austerity all-round.
    5) Scotland will sue for entry to Europe and adoption of Euro in the worst possible of all circumstances.

    Really lovely prospect.

    5 Scotland will get vetoed by UK on EU membership unitl it settles its debts - why wouldn't we ?
    UK won't need to. Spain will be happy to oblige.
    Why didn't the UK veto Spain's membership of the EU until they conceded Gibraltar?

    Spain did concede Gibraltar - in 1713. They just keep forgetting.
    I always thought that the main difference between Gibraltar and the Falklands and the disputed claims was that Argentina maintains that the Islands are theirs and should always have been, whereas Spain acknowledges they ceded Gibraltar (although exact dimensions and various bits of the treaty being abided by may well be disputable), and their desire to get it back is a political wish, not an argument on the legality as Argentina's is (regarding being the successor state in the region in addition to geography and so on. But I confess my history is a bit hazy on those points.
    And Spain had another chance to get Gibraltar via the Treaty of Amiens in 1802 but were content with Minorca.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Danny565 said:

    Have to admit I love this new line from PBTories about how the Scottish referendum swing is Labour's fault

    In my view Labour could have stopped this whole mess from happening. The effects of the Tory policies on things north of the border may have ratcheted up resentment of all things south of the border, but Labour could have stemmed this problem. They did not.

    Instead what they came up with was a one-sided system which seemed to be designed to keep Scotland under the control of one party (Labour) and to give their Scottish MPs influence in Westminster by ensuring that they had influence over issues that were none of their concern. It was all about Labour trying to slant the system so that in power or out of power they would have disproportionate influence.

    They did not seem to care about anything or anyone else. This was raw self-interest to which everything else was subjugated. They even ensured that the government following them had a poisoned chalice by doing their best to bankrupt the country so that the coalition had to implement massive austerity programs which Labour could look good by criticising. They were gleeful about it "There's no money left" went the note in the treasury.

    Of course, the whole thing back-fired when the SNP used the one-party-controls-all mechanism of the Scottish parliament and then that durned coalition had the bad grace to actually turn the economy around.

    Make no mistake, the tories started this ball rolling back in the late 80s but Labour could have stopped it if it had not been obsessed with cementing itself into eternal power.

    Spot on
  • A gang of five men have gone on trial accused of trafficking a 13-year-old girl and taking it in turns to abuse her after she ran away from home.

    A jury heard how Mohammed Shapal, 22, and Shakeal Rehman, 26, from Bradford, West Yorkshire, and Usman Ali, 21, Bekir Rasheed, 36, and Yaseen Amini, 36, from Sheffield, South Yorkshire, arranged her travel before abusing her.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2749626/Gang-trafficked-13-year-old-runaway-hotels-flats-Bradford-turns-abuse.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Roger said:

    Eagle

    "Tory Voters taking one for the Union"

    Scotland has unwittingly shone a light onto this very unattractive coalition and the rest of the UK are waking up to what a very ugly government we have at the moment.

    It can't be that ugly if it has taken recent events to shine a light on it. It is not as though people have not been speaking against it in near apocalyptic terms since day one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    kle4 said:

    What chance the Tories drop down into the mid 20ish range in the event of a Yes vote and subsequent Tory implosion?

    The next six weeks worth of polling should be ignored.

    We've got the Macbeths having their plebiscite, we've got conference season coming up, we've got UKIP winning Clacton in a calendar month's time.
    Should be, perhaps, although I imagine the Tory malcontents will use it to set the narrative from now until May.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    They should take the lead from Her Maj and play hard to get.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    What a bunch. I despair.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    We really are seriously in the mire, if the best candidates for PM are Cameron, Milliband and Clegg. If I was Scottish, and a bit undecided, after today, I'd be draping myself in the Saltire, painting my face blue, and joining the SNP. It's been embarrassing. Westminster politicians have been talking tough since the referendum was announced, but now they're squealing and offering everything, including the kitchen sink. It absolutely stinks that devo-whatever was off the table, but now it's a bit close, Gordon Brown, yes, Gordon effing Brown has crawled out from under his rock to save the union with offers of near-as-damnit indy.

    Scotland, please, please vote yes, so that the whole rotten gang can implode during the recriminations after you do.

    Greetings TFS!

    I completely agree. Devomax is a can of worms that needs to stay closed. Independence means independence, and if Hammond was the blabbermouth minister that said it was a bluff about currency union then he is not fit to be a negotiator.

    We need a reincarnated Longshanks as our advocate, not some PPE jessie.
    Tend to agree. I was upset, but the Scots obviously want to leave. So, let's be adult, and both negotiate the terms of leaving in a way that can benefit us both.

    The behaviour of our political "leaders" today has been shameful.

    Quite right on both counts. I am not sure where this vindictive idea that we should somehow punish Scotland for leaving a union in which it was a founding and voluntary partner ever came from. We should be good neighbours, and allies.
    Good luck selling that on the doorstep. It's a divorce. Have you ever witnessed a divorce?

    They are very seldom entirely amicable. And that's when it is just two humans ending a marriage. This is two ancient nations trying to break a 300 year old bond, and unpick the embroidery of centuries.

    Emotions will run high as the army is split, and the navy, and the BBC - as the very fabric of the UK is rent asunder.

    The English will turn bored and bitter, and, as they do, they will want to drive a very hard bargain indeed. English Nationalism will, finally, arise. And any politician that agrees to accommodate it will be be elected.

    If Scotland votes YES I expect a Tory-UKIP government within five years, and it won't be very pretty.
    I think a UKIP government will be very, er, pretty. But it will be much more than that, it will be a strong government, standing up for the UK and the British people first and foremost. Let Europe beware!
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Jeez.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    kle4 said:

    Interesting developments. What they will demonstrate, in the event of a No vote, is that this is very much Scotland suing for the divorce. RUK is practically begging Scotland to stay in the relationship. The fall-out, which will undoubtedly be bad economically, will be Scotland's responsibility and her responsibility alone. It will mean that there will be absolutely no need for the RUK to have any compunction about driving an extremely hard deal. Rejected suitors tend to react badly.

    If the politicians do what they say they are going to do, the following will happen.

    1) Scottish request for a currency union will be turned down flat.
    2) Salmond will renege on Scotland's share of national debt.
    3) Huge market turbulence will damage everyone and the Scottish "transition" via the Panama model will look completely impossible.
    4) Scotland will have to establish central bank and own currency in the worst possible consequences. Austerity all-round.
    5) Scotland will sue for entry to Europe and adoption of Euro in the worst possible of all circumstances.

    Really lovely prospect.

    5 Scotland will get vetoed by UK on EU membership unitl it settles its debts - why wouldn't we ?
    UK won't need to. Spain will be happy to oblige.
    Why didn't the UK veto Spain's membership of the EU until they conceded Gibraltar?

    Spain did concede Gibraltar - in 1713. They just keep forgetting.
    I always thought that the main difference between Gibraltar and the Falklands and the disputed claims was that Argentina maintains that the Islands are theirs and should always have been, whereas Spain acknowledges they ceded Gibraltar (although exact dimensions and various bits of the treaty being abided by may well be disputable), and their desire to get it back is a political wish, not an argument on the legality as Argentina's is (regarding being the successor state in the region in addition to geography and so on. But I confess my history is a bit hazy on those points.
    And Spain had another chance to get Gibraltar via the Treaty of Amiens in 1802 but were content with Minorca.
    I don't know about that, Mr. Alan, it wasn't as if the Spanish were coming to the table as victors able to demand terms. That we gave them Minorca was generous in the circumstances.
  • kle4 said:

    I always thought that the main difference between Gibraltar and the Falklands and the disputed claims was that Argentina maintains that the Islands are theirs and should always have been, whereas Spain acknowledges they ceded Gibraltar (although exact dimensions and various bits of the treaty being abided by may well be disputable), and their desire to get it back is a political wish, not an argument on the legality as Argentina's is (regarding being the successor state in the region in addition to geography and so on. But I confess my history is a bit hazy on those points.

    There is an argument that the United Kingdom has contravened Article X of the Treaty of Utrecht, in which the British Monarch did agree 'that no leave shall be given under any pretence whatsoever, either to Jews or Moors, to reside or have their dwellings in the said town of Gibraltar'. Accordingly, it is said that, as the British having contravened their treaty obligations, the Spanish have no need to respect the said agreement.
    Would love to see the Spanish argue that at the UN.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Boab said:

    Fenster said:

    The biggest drawback for me would be no more (British) Open Championships at St Andrews, Muirfield or Troon.

    You haven't really thought this through have you?
    It's called the British Open, but it is organised by the R&A, who are based where?

    So there will be a bit of unpicking. It's still boring and largely inconsequential. It's not exactly the crisis in Ukraine, Syria or Iraq is it? Some insignificant outpost in the wilds of the British Isles wants to make itself a fully independent state rather than a devolved one.

    Wow. Stop the earth.
    Hugo Rifkind in the Times today reported an interesting conversation between a YES canvasser and a Dutch resident. Something like:

    "You're mad, you're selfish, you're stupid." [this was the Dutchman]. "Haven't you seen what's happening in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria? Holland can't do anything about it - we're too small, no one listens to us. But Britain can. You can. And you want to shirk that responsibility? Because you only care about yourself. How selfish can you get."

    Interesting to see how outsiders might view the situation.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    manfrom said:

    I guess the one thing that was absolutely inevitable about the polls in the final few days was that they'd tighten significantly.

    We can now look forward a whole host of "on the day" inevitibilities

    1) Bad weather (decreases turnout of older voters)
    2) Students not back/back early
    3) Queues at polling stations past 10pm (a la 2010)
    4) At least one accusation of vote rigging, most likely concerned with postal votes
    5) Accusations of voter intimidation at polling stations
    6) A massive recount if it's remotely close

    3) has I think been defused. Anyone in the queue at 10 will be able to vote no matter how long it takes.
    One of my friends is to be in charge of a local polling station. He and his colleagues have been given tutorials about how to deal with queues at 10pm, people turning up with postal votes etc etc. The Returning Officer has appointed a flying squad of officials who can attend any polling station in a short period to deal with any issues on the spot if necessary.
    Do you know if it is possible to change your mind after posting your postal vote? We have a No voter who now wants to change to Yes.
    I believe it is, at least in national elections. You need to call the Returning Officer and get him to cancel the vote and send you a new ballot paper.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ladbrokes - The Queen to officially back the NO campaign

    *** SUSPENDED ***

    Sounds like an intervention...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Kle4


    "It can't be that ugly if it has taken recent events to shine a light on it."

    Those of us who don't have issues with spare rooms and disabilities don't spend much time thinking about them but when they're pointed out and we are forced to look at the unacceptable disparities between the haves and have nots it becomes shameful and shaming
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Charles said:

    manfrom said:

    I guess the one thing that was absolutely inevitable about the polls in the final few days was that they'd tighten significantly.

    We can now look forward a whole host of "on the day" inevitibilities

    1) Bad weather (decreases turnout of older voters)
    2) Students not back/back early
    3) Queues at polling stations past 10pm (a la 2010)
    4) At least one accusation of vote rigging, most likely concerned with postal votes
    5) Accusations of voter intimidation at polling stations
    6) A massive recount if it's remotely close

    3) has I think been defused. Anyone in the queue at 10 will be able to vote no matter how long it takes.
    One of my friends is to be in charge of a local polling station. He and his colleagues have been given tutorials about how to deal with queues at 10pm, people turning up with postal votes etc etc. The Returning Officer has appointed a flying squad of officials who can attend any polling station in a short period to deal with any issues on the spot if necessary.
    Do you know if it is possible to change your mind after posting your postal vote? We have a No voter who now wants to change to Yes.
    I believe it is, at least in national elections. You need to call the Returning Officer and get him to cancel the vote and send you a new ballot paper.
    Dont tell him Charles every vote counts!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    What chance the Tories drop down into the mid 20ish range in the event of a Yes vote and subsequent Tory implosion?

    Labour will also implode. Gordon Brown becomes a Frenchman. 40 MPs gone. Chaos. Tories and Labour will both go into convulsions if Scotland goes - everyone knows that.

    I think it not impossible that, after a YES, UKIP could take the lead in a FUK poll.
    Not entirely inconceivable in the circumstances.Depends how badly people want to kick the big parties (on top of general dislike) and how quickly they get their acts together I think.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    I can't think of two bigger berks. The union is doomed if we are relying on them to save it.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    The SNP and UKIP with their individual brands of nationalism have not been a force for good in any part of the UK, and they bring out the worst kind of negative and nasty divisions among the electorate.
    With the SNP, the bogey man is Westminster, with UKIP, the bogey man is Europe.
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SNIP

    Greetings TFS!

    I completely agree. Devomax is a can of worms that needs to stay closed. Independence means independence, and if Hammond was the blabbermouth minister that said it was a bluff about currency union then he is not fit to be a negotiator.

    We need a reincarnated Longshanks as our advocate, not some PPE jessie.
    Tend to agree. I was upset, but the Scots obviously want to leave. So, let's be adult, and both negotiate the terms of leaving in a way that can benefit us both.

    The behaviour of our political "leaders" today has been shameful.

    Quite right on both counts. I am not sure where this vindictive idea that we should somehow punish Scotland for leaving a union in which it was a founding and voluntary partner ever came from. We should be good neighbours, and allies.
    Good luck selling that on the doorstep. It's a divorce. Have you ever witnessed a divorce?

    They are very seldom entirely amicable. And that's when it is just two humans ending a marriage. This is two ancient nations trying to break a 300 year old bond, and unpick the embroidery of centuries.

    Emotions will run high as the army is split, and the navy, and the BBC - as the very fabric of the UK is rent asunder.

    The English will turn bored and bitter, and, as they do, they will want to drive a very hard bargain indeed. English Nationalism will, finally, arise. And any politician that agrees to accommodate it will be be elected.

    If Scotland votes YES I expect a Tory-UKIP government within five years, and it won't be very pretty.
    I think a UKIP government will be very, er, pretty. But it will be much more than that, it will be a strong government, standing up for the UK and the British people first and foremost. Let Europe beware!
  • Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    If Scotland goes independent, what happens to the nationality of Scots ex-pats?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    CNN is announcing thet the identity of 'Jihad John', the man who executed the two US journalists, has been discovered. However they are not giving a name.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Anyone who is part of the extended family of Easterross has to be of fine Scottish lineage. If I'm not mistaken he is also a cousin of both mine and NPXMP through the Earls of Moray.

    I guess we are probably related somehow then...

    (Graham & Campbell)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Bang on the money with that post Beverley, and great to see you back posting too.

    Danny565 said:

    Have to admit I love this new line from PBTories about how the Scottish referendum swing is Labour's fault

    In my view Labour could have stopped this whole mess from happening. The effects of the Tory policies on things north of the border may have ratcheted up resentment of all things south of the border, but Labour could have stemmed this problem. They did not.

    Instead what they came up with was a one-sided system which seemed to be designed to keep Scotland under the control of one party (Labour) and to give their Scottish MPs influence in Westminster by ensuring that they had influence over issues that were none of their concern. It was all about Labour trying to slant the system so that in power or out of power they would have disproportionate influence.

    They did not seem to care about anything or anyone else. This was raw self-interest to which everything else was subjugated. They even ensured that the government following them had a poisoned chalice by doing their best to bankrupt the country so that the coalition had to implement massive austerity programs which Labour could look good by criticising. They were gleeful about it "There's no money left" went the note in the treasury.

    Of course, the whole thing back-fired when the SNP used the one-party-controls-all mechanism of the Scottish parliament and then that durned coalition had the bad grace to actually turn the economy around.

    Make no mistake, the tories started this ball rolling back in the late 80s but Labour could have stopped it if it had not been obsessed with cementing itself into eternal power.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Roger said:

    Kle4


    "It can't be that ugly if it has taken recent events to shine a light on it."

    Those of us who don't have issues with spare rooms and disabilities don't spend much time thinking about them but when they're pointed out and we are forced to look at the unacceptable disparities between the haves and have nots it becomes shameful and shaming

    I have neither a spare room or disabilities, and though I can understand some disagreement with the bedroom tax, I remain baffled at the 'end of the world' vibe Labour have given it all these years. It's one of those issues where the level of outrage seems completely out of proportion, notwithstanding heart pulling cases which occur to some degree whenever there is some major change in such systems, people fall through cracks.

    In any case, people occasionally reference evidence that plenty of times people will state support for a particular position, until they find out it is a Tory policy, or whatever, so it hardly matters whether a policy is mostly unobjectionable, or at least not as objectionable as stated, for a lot of people whoever is behind it is enough to condemn it.

  • Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    glw said:

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    I can't think of two bigger berks. The union is doomed if we are relying on them to save it.
    Well unfortunately thats what it comes down to after toxic Tory policies such as the bedroom tax.

    Not ideal but that is where we are
  • So after Cameron's ridiculous behaviour are we still given to understand that he's going to brilliantly outnegotiate the EU sometime after the general election ?

    Even though his record so far is a sorry trail of surrender and humiliation.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited September 2014
    Charles said:


    Hugo Rifkind in the Times today reported an interesting conversation between a YES canvasser and a Dutch resident. Something like:

    "You're mad, you're selfish, you're stupid." [this was the Dutchman]. "Haven't you seen what's happening in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria? Holland can't do anything about it - we're too small, no one listens to us. But Britain can. You can. And you want to shirk that responsibility? Because you only care about yourself. How selfish can you get."

    I would imagine, and hope, the Yes campaigner asked the cloggie what Britain IS doing about Ukraine, Iraq and Syria, not to mention the right royal f***ing over of Iraq that Britain is already complicit in.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    fitalass said:

    The SNP and UKIP with their individual brands of nationalism have not been a force for good in any part of the UK, and they bring out the worst kind of negative and nasty divisions among the electorate.
    With the SNP, the bogey man is Westminster, with UKIP, the bogey man is Europe.

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SNIP

    Greetings TFS!

    I completely agree. Devomax is a can of worms that needs to stay closed. Independence means independence, and if Hammond was the blabbermouth minister that said it was a bluff about currency union then he is not fit to be a negotiator.

    We need a reincarnated Longshanks as our advocate, not some PPE jessie.
    Tend to agree. I was upset, but the Scots obviously want to leave. So, let's be adult, and both negotiate the terms of leaving in a way that can benefit us both.

    The behaviour of our political "leaders" today has been shameful.

    Quite right on both counts. I am not sure where this vindictive idea that we should somehow punish Scotland for leaving a union in which it was a founding and voluntary partner ever came from. We should be good neighbours, and allies.
    Good luck selling that on the doorstep. It's a divorce. Have you ever witnessed a divorce?

    They are very seldom entirely amicable. And that's when it is just two humans ending a marriage. This is two ancient nations trying to break a 300 year old bond, and unpick the embroidery of centuries.

    Emotions will run high as the army is split, and the navy, and the BBC - as the very fabric of the UK is rent asunder.

    The English will turn bored and bitter, and, as they do, they will want to drive a very hard bargain indeed. English Nationalism will, finally, arise. And any politician that agrees to accommodate it will be be elected.

    If Scotland votes YES I expect a Tory-UKIP government within five years, and it won't be very pretty.
    I think a UKIP government will be very, er, pretty. But it will be much more than that, it will be a strong government, standing up for the UK and the British people first and foremost. Let Europe beware!
    It's the Curse of Oil, without the discovery of oil in the North Sea the SNP would never have arisen to spread discord and division. Black fools' gold.

  • One critical factor escapes analysts relating to turnout and it is this: the SNP has perhaps the most sophisticated voter ID system in the West with a minimum of 8 years of database population. On referendum day there will be an army of call centre volunteers and contracted workers contacting everyone on this database reminding them to vote. In 2007 this accounted for a 5% rise in the SNP vote and the marginal SNP victory. How do I know this? I know the guy who designed it..! The No campaign has nothing so sophisticated.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
    I know what is wrong with these people?
  • Tim_B said:

    CNN is announcing thet the identity of 'Jihad John', the man who executed the two US journalists, has been discovered. However they are not giving a name.

    However they are not giving a name....until after these messages.....2hrs later...coming up after this messages finally we can reveal the name...
  • Tim_B said:

    If Scotland goes independent, what happens to the nationality of Scots ex-pats?

    Presumably rUK may offer nationality in some cases.



  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Fitalass

    "The SNP and UKIP with their individual brands of nationalism have not been a force for good in any part of the UK, and they bring out the worst kind of negative and nasty divisions among the electorate."

    I don't know what it looks like from where you are Mrs. Lass but from down here it looks very much like UKIP is responding to the frustrations of the people rather than trying ferment discord. Maybe, the Conservatives under their Dear Leader should have paid attention to what ordinary people wanted then, in England at least, they might be on target to win the next GE.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tim_B said:

    CNN is announcing thet the identity of 'Jihad John', the man who executed the two US journalists, has been discovered. However they are not giving a name.

    Its not me
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    The rUK would only be acting "vindictively" in negotiations if they take actions which will damage the rUK to some extent to make life harder for Scotland. Which they are not likely to do (there may be some grey areas in this respect where transitional arrangements are concerned). However the problem here is that the SNP have taken it upon themselves to assert what is in the rUK's interests (which happily for them always coincide with Scotland's). So it is inevitable that the rUK will be accused of acting vindictively regardless of the reality.

    There was a discussion earlier today about the status of things like UK tax offices in Scotland and how we would apparently not seek to relocate them to within our own tax jurisdiction. This makes no sense for both political and economic reasons. The UK bases large Govt agencies in all sorts of deprived areas for obvious reasons to stimulate local economies. So they will obviously be keen to remove agencies from Scotland as rapidly as possible post independence.

    Furthermore maintaining these agencies in what would be a foreign country would become significantly more expensive overnight (and for the same reasons Scotland would be keen to bring everything in house as soon as possible). For the simple reason that every public sector salary in the rUK gives a "rebate" to the Government in tax and NI. This would not be true for the rUK Govt paying salaries to public sector workers based in an Independent Scotland.

    It is the obvious reason why private sector companies routinely outsource abroad, but it is rarely in the interests of the Govt to do the same. (the big anomaly is when Local Govt outsources - to their benefit but to the detriment of the country).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    One critical factor escapes analysts relating to turnout and it is this: the SNP has perhaps the most sophisticated voter ID system in the West with a minimum of 8 years of database population. On referendum day there will be an army of call centre volunteers and contracted workers contacting everyone on this database reminding them to vote. In 2007 this accounted for a 5% rise in the SNP vote and the marginal SNP victory. How do I know this? I know the guy who designed it..! The No campaign has nothing so sophisticated.

    Oh dear. Don't tell that to the ranting Nats who insist "this is not about the SNP"...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe Northern Ireland would leave rUK and join Scotland in the event of a Yes vote.
  • A Yes vote will cause some bloody severe pain for us all, but it might just do us all a bloody big favour as well. The old order just might come crashing down. All the main parties might fracture, the likes of Cameron, Clegg and Milliband could be swept away. Who, in their right mind, could vote for the main parties, knowing that some combination of those 3 clowns will be divvying up power in number 10, come GE2015?
    What's that quote " If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got"? Well, the Scots seem like they've had enough of getting what they've always got. We should feel the same way too, and embrace the pain.
    I envy the Scots.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    The Tories' tactical retreat of its MPs south of Hadrian's Wall will be pored over by historians as the greatest piece of strategy since [insert controversial battle of choice from the ancient world....]

    Tories side-stepping the Coalition and delivering on their election pledge to reduce the number of Westminster MPs. Spin on that, LibDems!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
    You are right and the SNP is even less popular in London than UKIP!!!

    We are a truely divided nation
  • kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal

  • Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    Not in Wales - they are more popular than Plaid Cymru, for example.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    SeanT said:

    glw said:

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    I can't think of two bigger berks. The union is doomed if we are relying on them to save it.
    Well unfortunately thats what it comes down to after toxic Tory policies such as the bedroom tax.

    Not ideal but that is where we are
    Who gives a F.

    The fact is, as a rightwinger, I can see some upside to a Scottish YES (much as I don't want it). Both countries would inevitably swing right, into greater austerity, as they had to deal with deficits with a shrinking tax base.

    Labour would lose 40 MPs, Tories would lose 1.

    Cameron would go and be very likely replaced with a UKIP-friendly eurosceptic, who might then make an alliance which could win a General Election. And rule the country for ten years, perhaps taking us out of Europe.

    What's the upside for Labour? None. Absolutely none at all. Except you might dump loser Miliband and... who cares. You would have lost your electoral heartland.

    So it really is your party that, paradoxically, needs to win this vote. Which is good as it is your party's voters that are deserting to YES. The Scots Tories are solidly NO. 98%.

    You need to get to work. Perhaps stop dicking about on here, and go north?
    Too busy writing out by hand my BJESUS
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
    I know what is wrong with these people?
    Nothing. There is nothing wrong with people who, on the whole, see things differently from the way you do. They probably have the same aims and aspirations but just see a different way to meet them.

    Did you ever hear that superb interview by Eddie Mair of John Hutton. Blew the whole tribalisation of politics clean out of the window - provided of course one isn't so tribal as to believe only my tribe has the right answers. And frankly anyone who has that attitude might just as well go and join ISIS because they carry the same thought virus.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newsnight: the three main party leaders are "certainly not panicking".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
    I know what is wrong with these people?
    I really have no idea why Labour is absent from swathes of areas here in the SW. A lot of the LDs I know were definitely never on the Clegg side of the party, they usually seem to despise him and his ilk, in fact they seem more Labour than the few Labour people I know. I wasn't raised in a political family at all, but I credit my stronger reluctance to consider voting Labour in part down to Blair being an odious sort when I first started looking a politics, but also in part being raised in an area where if you want to be anti-Tory, you vote LD, so instinctively being more wary of them.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    fitalass said:

    The SNP and UKIP with their individual brands of nationalism have not been a force for good in any part of the UK, and they bring out the worst kind of negative and nasty divisions among the electorate.
    With the SNP, the bogey man is Westminster, with UKIP, the bogey man is Europe.

    I agree with that very much. Nationalism is no answer to our problems. It boils complex questions down to simple answers related to nationality — which is often code for ethnicity, religion, and culture which should be left out of politics — and it panders to prejudice. And many of the things that nationalists claim to be truths are invariably far more complicated, if not out-right lies and myths. But unfortunately nationalism is rapidly becoming a mainstream part of our politics to the detriment of us all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight: the three main party leaders are "certainly not panicking".

    Why would anyone think such a thing? Scotland is a lovely place and the weather has been very good recently, they were all just taken with an impulse to visit such a splendid location at the same time.
  • BBC - Queen 'won't interfere' in Scottish poll

    Well, at least one person is keeping her head - while all around are losing theirs etc...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29136149
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    The Tories' tactical retreat of its MPs south of Hadrian's Wall will be pored over by historians as the greatest piece of strategy since [insert controversial battle of choice from the ancient world....]

    Tories side-stepping the Coalition and delivering on their election pledge to reduce the number of Westminster MPs. Spin on that, LibDems!
    The greatest piece of strategy since the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest.

    Which incidentally happened exactly 2,005 years ago today
  • SeanT said:


    SeanT

    So two weeks after the Rotherham report and still no response from the government.

    How about a Telegraph blog asking these questions:

    1) Why no action from Theresa May about a police force which has collaberated with child rapists ?

    2) Why has the Rotherham child welfare services not been placed into special measures by the government as those of other local councils have been placed in the past ?

    3) How much did the former Communities Minister, the well connected locally, Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and why did she do nothing ?

    4) Why has David Cameron been willing to preside over total government non-action ?

    The answer to (4) is IMO Matthew Parris style metropolitan class hatred for wwc 'up north'.


  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    A Yes vote will cause some bloody severe pain for us all, but it might just do us all a bloody big favour as well. The old order just might come crashing down. All the main parties might fracture, the likes of Cameron, Clegg and Milliband could be swept away. Who, in their right mind, could vote for the main parties, knowing that some combination of those 3 clowns will be divvying up power in number 10, come GE2015?
    What's that quote " If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got"? Well, the Scots seem like they've had enough of getting what they've always got. We should feel the same way too, and embrace the pain.
    I envy the Scots.

    Damned good post, Mr. Stopper.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    Independence for Sheffield and North Derbyshire must surely follow!!
    Just remember in the South West and South East electoral regions, Labour have a lower share of the vote, in a three party system, than the Tories have in a four party system in Scotland.
    I know what is wrong with these people?
    Nothing. There is nothing wrong with people who, on the whole, see things differently from the way you do. They probably have the same aims and aspirations but just see a different way to meet them.

    Did you ever hear that superb interview by Eddie Mair of John Hutton. Blew the whole tribalisation of politics clean out of the window - provided of course one isn't so tribal as to believe only my tribe has the right answers. And frankly anyone who has that attitude might just as well go and join ISIS because they carry the same thought virus.
    I know frustrating though it is. Differing political opinions are a good thing I actually like some PB Tories.

    Dont tell them though
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A pretty generous interpretation: A plurality of Tory MPs voted against gay marriage. If the Tories ran the country alone it wouldn't be legal. Some Tory members even deselected their MPs for voting in favour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A pretty generous interpretation: A plurality of Tory MPs voted against gay marriage. If the Tories ran the country alone it wouldn't be legal. Some Tory members even deselected their MPs for voting in favour.
    It happened under a Tory PM, it only happened thanks to a Tory PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer, or rather the leadership forcing such things through on the rest of the parliamentary party. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
  • A Yes vote will cause some bloody severe pain for us all, but it might just do us all a bloody big favour as well. The old order just might come crashing down. All the main parties might fracture, the likes of Cameron, Clegg and Milliband could be swept away. Who, in their right mind, could vote for the main parties, knowing that some combination of those 3 clowns will be divvying up power in number 10, come GE2015?
    What's that quote " If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got"? Well, the Scots seem like they've had enough of getting what they've always got. We should feel the same way too, and embrace the pain.
    I envy the Scots.

    Damned good post, Mr. Stopper.
    Agreed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    "Newsnight: the three main party leaders are "certainly not panicking".

    They're rebranding London's buses


    http://camsweb.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/DSC_1298-e1403467911156.jpg
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    FT front page - Investors pull cash from Scotland - BBC newspaper review.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    CNN is announcing thet the identity of 'Jihad John', the man who executed the two US journalists, has been discovered. However they are not giving a name.

    However they are not giving a name....until after these messages.....2hrs later...coming up after this messages finally we can reveal the name...
    It's the US that is not giving a name.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    I always thought that the main difference between Gibraltar and the Falklands and the disputed claims was that Argentina maintains that the Islands are theirs and should always have been, whereas Spain acknowledges they ceded Gibraltar (although exact dimensions and various bits of the treaty being abided by may well be disputable), and their desire to get it back is a political wish, not an argument on the legality as Argentina's is (regarding being the successor state in the region in addition to geography and so on. But I confess my history is a bit hazy on those points.

    There is an argument that the United Kingdom has contravened Article X of the Treaty of Utrecht, in which the British Monarch did agree 'that no leave shall be given under any pretence whatsoever, either to Jews or Moors, to reside or have their dwellings in the said town of Gibraltar'. Accordingly, it is said that, as the British having contravened their treaty obligations, the Spanish have no need to respect the said agreement.
    Nah - the Spanish would have the right of enforcement of the Treaty, not the right of abrogation. I wonder how the ECHR would rule if they tried to enforce the clause?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    Not on immigration.
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    edited September 2014
    If we are saying the Tories are toxic in Wales then Labour must surely be toxic in Scotland.

    The Tories in the Welsh Assembly election got only 6% less than Scottish Labour in the constituency vote, and only 3.5% less on the regional list. (Edit obviously comparing to the Scottish Parliament election)

    If you think of it like that, Scottish Labour have fallen a long way to be so close in percentage to the Welsh Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    FPT:

    With the focus understandably on Scotland at the moment it's easy to overlook the fact that politics in the rest of the UK is changing rather rapidly: for example the combined share for UKIP and the Greens in current opinion polls is about 20% compared to 4% at the 2010 general election. Excluding Scotland that figure would probably be higher.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Did Tories always eat babies or did it start with Thatcher?

    I think the where there is discord let us bring harmony bollox was what did it for me. I dont consider Ken Clarke a baby eater and certainly despise Blair post Iraq more than Cameron but the North of England City dwellers really do hate Tories.

    Nearly as much as the Scots do.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    SeanT said:


    SeanT

    So two weeks after the Rotherham report and still no response from the government.

    How about a Telegraph blog asking these questions:

    1) Why no action from Theresa May about a police force which has collaberated with child rapists ?

    2) Why has the Rotherham child welfare services not been placed into special measures by the government as those of other local councils have been placed in the past ?

    3) How much did the former Communities Minister, the well connected locally, Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and why did she do nothing ?

    4) Why has David Cameron been willing to preside over total government non-action ?

    The answer to (4) is IMO Matthew Parris style metropolitan class hatred for wwc 'up north'.


    I was going to give it another week, on the hope that something would be announced. But it seems like nothing is in the works. They're trying to sweep it all under the carpet again, with no light shone on all the other towns this has happened in. And they wonder why people vote UKIP.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A pretty generous interpretation: A plurality of Tory MPs voted against gay marriage. If the Tories ran the country alone it wouldn't be legal. Some Tory members even deselected their MPs for voting in favour.
    It happened under a Tory PM, it only happened thanks to a Tory PM
    And if we directly elected PMs, that would carry significant weight. But as it is the Tories are not the party that made gay marriage.

    Additionally, Cameron was a necessary but far from significant cause of gay marriage. It only happened thanks to Nick Clegg too, without him it wouldn't have passed. It only happened thanks to each MP who voted in favour. But they don't each get all the credit, it is shared in accordance with the importance of their contribution. Which is why Cameron gets some credit, the Tory party gets little, and the two parties who provided most of their MPs (and in Labour's case, most of the votes) deserve at least as much as if not more.
  • Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    Not on immigration.
    The favourite to be next Tory leader, is very pro-immigration.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    Someone's doing a good job of making that seem heavily reluctant. I'll consider it. The incompetence is a bigger drawback at this point in fairness, not that that is an encouragement to consider Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    People are liberal on things like mixed relationships and gay marriage, but don't want immigration running at 250K a year when it was about 50K in the 1980s for example.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    I always thought that the main difference between Gibraltar and the Falklands and the disputed claims was that Argentina maintains that the Islands are theirs and should always have been, whereas Spain acknowledges they ceded Gibraltar (although exact dimensions and various bits of the treaty being abided by may well be disputable), and their desire to get it back is a political wish, not an argument on the legality as Argentina's is (regarding being the successor state in the region in addition to geography and so on. But I confess my history is a bit hazy on those points.

    There is an argument that the United Kingdom has contravened Article X of the Treaty of Utrecht, in which the British Monarch did agree 'that no leave shall be given under any pretence whatsoever, either to Jews or Moors, to reside or have their dwellings in the said town of Gibraltar'. Accordingly, it is said that, as the British having contravened their treaty obligations, the Spanish have no need to respect the said agreement.
    Nah - the Spanish would have the right of enforcement of the Treaty, not the right of abrogation. I wonder how the ECHR would rule if they tried to enforce the clause?
    They knew how to write a treaty in those days.

    I propose that any bill on Scottish independence bans the sweaty socks from living in Dorset. Reclaim Corby from the Haggis botherers.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    So social liberals should vote for the party that will be socially liberal one day, not a party that already is? Do you advocate economic liberals voting for Labour because a future leader will be more centralist than EdM?
  • Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A pretty generous interpretation: A plurality of Tory MPs voted against gay marriage. If the Tories ran the country alone it wouldn't be legal. Some Tory members even deselected their MPs for voting in favour.
    It happened under a Tory PM, it only happened thanks to a Tory PM
    And if we directly elected PMs, that would carry significant weight. But as it is the Tories are not the party that made gay marriage.

    Additionally, Cameron was a necessary but far from significant cause of gay marriage. It only happened thanks to Nick Clegg too, without him it wouldn't have passed. It only happened thanks to each MP who voted in favour. But they don't each get all the credit, it is shared in accordance with the importance of their contribution. Which is why Cameron gets some credit, the Tory party gets little, and the two parties who provided most of their MPs (and in Labour's case, most of the votes) deserve at least as much as if not more.
    If people are going to blame Cameron for losing the Union because he was the PM of when it happened, then he should be allowed to take credit for all the good things that happened during his tenure as PM
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    Which is another thing where the Conservatives have gone wrong.

    You should have aimed to become more libertarian.

    So gay marriage coincides with attempts at plebibition and various nanny state and surveillance state measures.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    That's a good point from Redwood.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    Someone's doing a good job of making that seem heavily reluctant. I'll consider it. The incompetence is a bigger drawback at this point in fairness, not that that is an encouragement to consider Labour.
    Ignore the noisy ones, listen to the majority of us.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: @thetimes Exclusive - Sir John Major suggests the last Labour government - implying Gordon Brown - to blame for Scottish turmoil
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: "You are Welsh, I am English" John Redwood tells Peter Hain, twice. This referendum is doing so much pointless damage to us.
  • Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Our PM is powerless to stop the break up of the Union. His very appearance in Scotland is likely to make matters worse.

    Completely useless ruled out DevoMax from the outset and cant even fly the fookin Saltire

    Tories are Toxic in Scotland Wales and every Northern City.

    I really hope Gordon and Ed can save the Union.

    This is on a knife edge and the more the Scots see of the PM the greater the chance they will leave. IMHO

    Getting rid of a net 58 non Tory MPs is a brilliant, almost masterful strategy by Dave.
    There is a certain amusement in that the very failure which will end him will also make his successor's job quite a bit easier.

    I am really uncertain where my vote will fall in May 2015 I must say. Labour have failed to inspire, the Tories have been underwhelming at best and disagreeable in several areas as well as being total failures in certain others (especially if Yes wins and the Tories implode and tack hard right), UKIP don't seem like the right fit for a wimpy social liberal like me, the LDs will abandon any of their remaining appealing points to try and present as Labour-lite again I'd guess, and probably no Independent will stand in my area again.

    That only leaves a possible Green or BNP candidate to pick from.
    Vote Tory, a social liberal should vote for the party that made gay marriage legal
    A point in their favour, but I don't see much hope of the Tories become more liberal or sustaining many liberal attitudes for much longer. It's time for a hard tack to the right it seems. It'll be a fun ride to watch at least.
    We're becoming more socially liberal.
    So social liberals should vote for the party that will be socially liberal one day, not a party that already is? Do you advocate economic liberals voting for Labour because a future leader will be more centralist than EdM?
    No, vote Tory
  • tessyC said:

    If we are saying the Tories are toxic in Wales then Labour must surely be toxic in Scotland.

    The Tories in the Welsh Assembly election got only 6% less than Scottish Labour in the constituency vote, and only 3.5% less on the regional list. (Edit obviously comparing to the Scottish Parliament election)

    If you think of it like that, Scottish Labour have fallen a long way to be so close in percentage to the Welsh Tories.

    Recent Conservative success in Wales may have been a factor in the party losing its enthusiasm for axing Welsh constituencies. Or not; who knows?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: @thetimes Exclusive - Sir John Major suggests the last Labour government - implying Gordon Brown - to blame for Scottish turmoil

    Oh for heaven's sake, can they leave the blame game for a possible loss to the amateurs (ie, us), and wait to do it themselves after it has occurred?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Labour trying to get the Heywood & Middleton by election on October 9th!!

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/labour-early-byelection-plan-jim-dobbin-death-foil-ukip
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight: the three main party leaders are "certainly not panicking".

    Echos of Corporal Jones
  • isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    An odd riposte coming from a former Welsh secretary, albeit an unconvincing one

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RIwBvjoLyZc
  • Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: @thetimes Exclusive - Sir John Major suggests the last Labour government - implying Gordon Brown - to blame for Scottish turmoil

    I refer the honourable gentleman to the answer given by Mandy Rice-Davies.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Did Tories always eat babies or did it start with Thatcher?

    I think the where there is discord let us bring harmony bollox was what did it for me. I dont consider Ken Clarke a baby eater and certainly despise Blair post Iraq more than Cameron but the North of England City dwellers really do hate Tories.

    Nearly as much as the Scots do.

    Sadly, if Scotland votes YES, the witch will miss the country she probably created. By bringing in the poll tax a year earlier. Closing down Ravenscraig. Insensitivity, heartlessness, whatever !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    Where does it end though. Can hear the Yorkshire folk now.
  • MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    That's a good point from Redwood.
    Well, yes and no. The Welsh have every right to comment, and be consulted, on the future constitutional makeup of the country of which they form a part.

    But of course, so do the English, and so far no-one has asked us.

  • MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    That's a good point from Redwood.
    Indeed.

    Compare with Cameron who put Malcolm Rifkind in charge of some look into the English democratic deficit.

    Speaking of which after being prime minster for four years and Conservative leader for nearly nine during which he has said nothing about and done nothing about the English democratic deficit Cameron is all action when it comes to giving Scotland EVEN MORE powers.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Hilarious argument between Peter Hain and John Redwood on Newsnight right now. Just shows what a divided rabble the better together campaign has become. And to cap it all they can't even hang the saltire correctly over Downing Street. When it rains it pours.

    The Westminster village has given a perfect illustration of just how out of touch it is with reality when it has only just woken up to how at risk the union is right now. Its hardly news - Scotland has been drifting apart from the rest of the UK for over 40 years - the February 1974 election was the first warning siren. Where have the Westminster village been all these years - staggering.

    Meanwhile a wonderfully argued case for Scottish independence. This is the nub of it: "The current polls indicate Scots have been bothered by a perceived scare campaign launched by unionists that effectively tell the Scots they are second-rate people incapable of self-rule". That's why Better Together have imploded so spectacularly:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/09/scottish-vote-scares-london/
  • Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: "You are Welsh, I am English" John Redwood tells Peter Hain, twice. This referendum is doing so much pointless damage to us.

    Nationalism is rarely pretty.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    John Redwood's on Newsnight calling for an English parliament and telling Peter Hain "Whats it got to do with you? You're Welsh"

    Cape Province or Kwazulu Natal ?
This discussion has been closed.