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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days
Just a week to go before the big day and there’s one group that’s getting very nervous – the pollsters. This is such a massive election that their final polls will be remembered for years just as now we point to surveys in Quebec in October 1995.
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Compare that to the shower that is Cameron, Clegg and Miliband. If I lived in Scotland I'd be tempted I must admit...
What could possibly happen next?
The desperation of No is pretty hard to take, but I can just about accept it. Trying to be rational, or sneering, or convincing, has not worked. Desperate pleading is about all that can be managed at this point.
On the 19th Salmond will be in full flow Maggie Thatcher , Clement Attlee, Winston Churchill your country has taken one hell of a beating 51% to 49%.
We can now look forward a whole host of "on the day" inevitibilities
1) Bad weather (decreases turnout of older voters)
2) Students not back/back early
3) Queues at polling stations past 10pm (a la 2010)
4) At least one accusation of vote rigging, most likely concerned with postal votes
5) Accusations of voter intimidation at polling stations
6) A massive recount if it's remotely close
Shameful behaviour by Cameron, Milliband and Clegg. And definitely counter-productive to take Clegg!
I couldn't care less either way, but it would be funny to see Labour lose all those safe seats.
The biggest drawback for me would be no more (British) Open Championships at St Andrews, Muirfield or Troon.
The collective face of the establishment would be funny to witness the day afterwards. As would the faces of Scots a few weeks later when all the wealthy and clever people start to leave. LOL indeed, all round.
Also, Clegg would likely have a Cleggasm himself at the idea someone included him as a choice for PM.
Indeed.
Did I read a post from you recently that said Wales has become more right-wing over past 30 years as Scotland has gone left? Would be interested to see the polling on that if there is any?
The problem though is that some individuals have worked themselves into a state of hyperbolic panic, stick their half-baked fear-driven rantings on Facebook or Twitter and spread the panic that bit further.
Take one tiny corner...Scottish horse racing. The five Scottish racetracks were all panicking about the ramifications of a YES vote - the problem was no one had told them that since the Ulster tracks of Down Royal and Downpatrick function perfectly adequately under the auspices of Horse Racing Ireland, so the Scottish tracks can continue to operate under the British Horseracing Authority. The media rights agreements cover all tracks irrespective of where they are because they are agreed with the track owners.
Panic over - life goes on. As with much else, it's easy to assume the worst but with a scintilla of thought, the worst can be easily avoided.
Scotland, please, please vote yes, so that the whole rotten gang can implode during the recriminations after you do.
Slowly but surely, anything "British" or a relic of the Union would be purged. I doubt there's much in the Republic that bears lasting testiment to our former union.
Great fun too. It will help loosen those tensions you've all been feeling lately.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturevideo/tvandradiovideo/11084038/Ohio-State-Marching-Band-pays-tribute-to-Game-of-Thrones-and-The-Office.html
'I don`t think you will be laughing if the ruk taxpayers in the next two years have to bail Scotland out and the B of E has to start issuing guarantees.'
If it doesn't happen in the next two years then it will in the next five or so years,so better to get it over with now and make a clean break.
Greyhound racing in Scotland faces a similar dilemma but one thing I do know about Alex Salmond is he loves his racing and is very knowledgeable about it.
I once had a conversation with him along the Embankment on one of the strangest nights of my life back in the early 90s.
It's called the British Open, but it is organised by the R&A, who are based where?
No need for Britain to fear leaving EU, say economists
Economists say that the idea that millions of jobs would be lost if Britain pulled out of the EU is 'wholly misleading'.
In terms of how it is likely to move in the future, this article best explains why Welsh nationalism and possible left wingers may go into decline.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/wales/10878554/Welsh-could-become-a-minority-in-Wales-as-English-set-sights-west.html
I completely agree. Devomax is a can of worms that needs to stay closed. Independence means independence, and if Hammond was the blabbermouth minister that said it was a bluff about currency union then he is not fit to be a negotiator.
We need a reincarnated Longshanks as our advocate, not some PPE jessie.
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/509262474458050560/photo/1
That is the risk of being a pollster, but I suspect that they will have a thousand reasons to explain why the result varied so much from their predictions.
The panic is scary and gets worse by the hour. It is easy to admire Salmond when the gun is not pointing at your head but a lot harder when your job, money and wealth are all on the line.
The general agreement was that the best thing that could happen now was the cancellation of the vote until it was clear what the vote was about. My gut feeling is that the weekend has energised the No voters more than the Yes voters. While the No voters were silent before they are now the loudest voices you hear.
In Glasgow the general sentiment seems to be that voters are lost and going back to their tribes. The Rangers fans will vote No and the Celtic fans will vote Yes. This is not the way to start a bright future for Scotland by reigniting the Auld Firm battles.
Wow. Stop the earth.
Having said that I hope it does not, as the Scottish police have already gone to one service.
https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Saltire&s=typd
"Ed Miliband has urged towns and cities across the United Kingdom to fly the Saltire in an attempt to encourage Scottish voters to stay in the union. Miliband, who raised the flag in Liverpool this morning with the city’s mayor, wants the rest of the UK to remind Scotland what they’ll be missing.
Miliband said: “Over the next few days we want cities, towns and villages across the UK to send a message to Scotland: stay with us. We want to see the Saltire flying above buildings all across our country.”"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/are-you-heeding-ed-milibands-call-to-fly-the-saltire-across-the-uk-scotland-independence
I meant if Glasgow actually casts its votes clearly for Yes.
I doubt the R&A would be as small-minded as Fenster, and to stop it being held outside of Scotland.
*** SUSPENDED ***
It didn't happen.
Indeed it may well be seen that one of the disastrous mistakes of BT was to obsess with Mr Salmond, and to focus on the man and equate the entire Yes movement with the SNP and then with him, to the degree that they completely lost depth of focus as to what has actually been happening.
And I'm neither a SNP member nor an uncritical observer of the chap.
Anyone who is part of the extended family of Easterross has to be of fine Scottish lineage. If I'm not mistaken he is also a cousin of both mine and NPXMP through the Earls of Moray.
However I do not think the markets are going to just wait years after a yes vote, for politicians leisurely to discuss this by 2016.
The most important decision in this country for a very long time and what will happen? Salmond doesn't know and has been bluffing from the start, the three monkey plainly haven't prepared, and now Brown is busy proposing to rip up our constitution without any consultation of the vast majority of UK citizens.
It's a farce, and our politicians are plumbing new depths almost by the hour.
If the politicians do what they say they are going to do, the following will happen.
1) Scottish request for a currency union will be turned down flat.
2) Salmond will renege on Scotland's share of national debt.
3) Huge market turbulence will damage everyone and the Scottish "transition" via the Panama model will look completely impossible.
4) Scotland will have to establish central bank and own currency in the worst possible consequences. Austerity all-round.
5) Scotland will sue for entry to Europe and adoption of Euro in the worst possible of all circumstances.
Really lovely prospect.
I think that will be pretty mild stuff if its a yes.
I guess Scotland will still be part of the 'British' Isles anyway.
Is there a missing NOT in that phrase?
i.e. "those who did NOT vote..."
Puhrleeese.
http://www.royalcork.com/
BTW - I was quite impressed by the Gordon Brown BT advert. Not usually a big fan but he does gravity well. And bringing his family into the equation is an astute move. People can identify with that. And he is post-ambition, unlike King Alex.
Whether all this will be enough, who can say.