Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinno

135

Comments

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    how are they spending someone else's money any more than say the Midlands or the South West ? On balance all the Uk is spending someone else's money as we're borrowing £80 billion a year. Scotland at least is in the paying its own way column.

    The Midlands and the South West don't have separate assemblies promising freebies and blaming evil Tories for not giving them out.
    you just don't get out enough Richard, I'm sat here in Birmingham and it's all about cuts.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    Thank goodness there are no impending threats to UK's exporting capacity.

    So you're pessimistic about chances of peace breaking out where there's currently war or in dangerous hotspots, damaging the weapons trade?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    David Cameron is asking for views on immigration on my facebook page. People are certainly giving him their 'views' alright !
  • Scott_P said:


    The real problem for Labour is how SLAB voters have turned their backs on the English Leader of the Labour party.

    Labour viewed Scotland as it's own personal fiefdom.

    If the Union breaks (still an if, just) the bulk of the blame lies with Labour.

    Which is why Cameron must resign. Obviously.
    Yes and why assumptions that the surging SNP will not eat SLAB at the next GE are puzzling.
  • SeanT said:


    The English won't want revenge, as such

    Lol.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    No-one is really mentioning the impact on Northern Ireland I see. I'm not expert on the province but what might the reaction there be? I don't buy the idea that this will mean much in Wales. The main concern here with a Yes vote would be that it might make a right wing government in Westminster more likely and I suspect concern about the possible rise of English nationalism. Certainly a preference for the cross of St George over the Union flag (or both) would start to make people here feel queasy. I've long thought the only possibility of Welsh independence was if the English said 'sod it, we're going on our own.'

    The fact that Ukip have a reasonable presence of sorts in Wales perhaps means Farage won't exploit any English nationalist feelings too much for now.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Contrary to some on here, I suspect that in the event of a YES vote on September 18th, the Friday will see all sides desperately trying to calm, soothe and mollify. The rhetoric will be switched off and the air will be filled with the sound of sweet reason and compromise.

    David Cameron and Alex Salmond will meet within a day or so to promote the general sense of geniality, bonhomie and the notion that it's business as usual and life goes on. Neither will want to be hubristic, euphoric or rub the other's nose in the result (that can happen on places like this which don't matter).

    Above all, the aim will be to convince the markets and investors that everything has been planned for and everyting is under control.

    As to what will happen at the Party Conferences and especially at fringe meetings - well, as always, that's the most interesting part of all the Conferences.

    I really don't fall for the idea that the Civil Service hasn't had "a plan" for a Yes vote, and is now hurriedly cobbling one together. We had all the guff after GE2010 about Cameron making his "big offer" to the LDs, everything being hurriedly put in place, negotiations starting etc, but it became apparent after the event that Whitehall had been planning for a hung parliament for months, the parties had been speaking, there were outline coalition agreements, policy positions sketched out etc, so that the party reps could then get together and form a Government.

    I refuse to believe that the engine room of power (which never really rests with the politicians as we all know) hasn't got contingency plans in place, and has probably already been working with the Scottish Administration to work out what might be divvied up, what the options are, how it might work.

    I do a lot of work for a client I won't name but which is a rare remaining example of a UK-wide body operating across the three GB nations without any substantive devolution of power already. A senior person there told me over a drink a year ago that "independence would be a massive issue for us, but it is seen as very unlikely, we don't think it is going to happen" but when I pressed, he did concede that "of course, IF - well, yes, there IS a plan" and implied that it had been drawn up with "the Department".

    I really do think that there is probably not just a contingency plan for next week and the immediate aftermath, but a pretty well-formed view on how the divorce might work, ready and waiting for the politicians to then pick up and "negotiate" to a conclusion.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Socrates said:

    'UK trade deficit hits highest level for two years'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29122511

    Thank goodness there are no impending threats to UK's exporting capacity.

    Scotland leaving would just be a change in how the numbers are measured. It doesn't mean rUK exports any less or that people would be poorer as a result.

    In fact, if you actually think about practical changes from independence, less oil exports would mean a weaker pound, which would mean more competitive manufacturing exports, which would mean rUK actually would export more than it currently does.
    it also doesn't mean that oil would somehow be credited to the UK in a CU, another Nat myth.
  • Mr. Royale, we must agree to disagree. Cameron (or Miliband) being more prominent would damage rather than enhance their chances of victory.

    King Cole, my Latin's awful, I thought the quote referred to 'gods', though.

    Mr. Nabavi, give it time. Clegg's cretinous desire to make the Cornish feel separate to the English will probably push it that way sooner or later, unless we get a proper English Parliament fairly soon.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    SeanT said:


    The English won't want revenge, as such

    Lol.

    Look at what happened to Wallace!
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    Looking at the polls I would say the Nats have won and independence is certain.

    They may not win this referendum, but it looks like the margin of defeat or victory will be small so that even a win for "NO" will simply fire up Nat enthusiasm for further referenda until they get the "right" result.

    I disagree. The YESniks w'll blame the English because they lost, of course - e.g. in the form of the "London media" or "Westminster" or "the Tories" or other euphemisms for what privately some of them call "FEBs", standing for "F'cking English B'stards", but that's just insulting the Scottish electorate. You need to look at the independence referendum in Quebec. YES lost by 1% in 1995, and there hasn't been an independence referendum since. Admittedly there had been an earlier one in 1980, where they got beaten by 19%. But things have moved on since the early 1980s. Unemployment was rising then, but nowadays personal debt is far higher and most people know the whole financial system could go 'crash'.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014

    you just don't get out enough Richard, I'm sat here in Birmingham and it's all about cuts.

    Sure, but you are missing my point. At the moment the Scots (and indeed to an extent the good people of Birmingham) think that increases in public spending can be paid for by someone else - the rich in the South East, Londoners, bankers, big corporations (we'll leave aside the question of whether this is true, it's the perception, amongst some at least). If Scotland goes independent, there is no-one else: any increases in public spending will clearly and unambiguously come directly out of the pockets of Scots. That will change attitudes.
  • More f*ckwittery from Dr Tim, the man that thought Darling had saved the Union. What next, the Great British Bake Off will save the Union.

    'To save the Union, we have to say it out loud: Britain is the greatest country in the world'

    http://tinyurl.com/nvukn47
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It'll be fine...

    @fletcherr: Yes vote would spark "deposit flight and deep recession" in Scotland warns Credit Suisse http://t.co/h9f2ZM2YIu
  • Mr. Royale, we must agree to disagree. Cameron (or Miliband) being more prominent would damage rather than enhance their chances of victory.

    King Cole, my Latin's awful, I thought the quote referred to 'gods', though.

    Mr. Nabavi, give it time. Clegg's cretinous desire to make the Cornish feel separate to the English will probably push it that way sooner or later, unless we get a proper English Parliament fairly soon.

    As Southam said, if the very fact an English leader expressing an opinion offends the Scots so much then the Union is lost anyway, and should end.

    I don't think that's actually true, if Cameron/Miliband steered clear of the contentious politics and focusses on family/culture/history, but I'd much rather have all our leaders to go down fighting - and lose with honour - rather than chicken out, hope that Scots don't notice them and keep their fingers crossed.

    What sort of victory is that for the Union?
  • Incidentally, I don't think I need to worry any more about the possibility that Ed Miliband could pull off a neat coup and restore a lot of Labour's economic credibility by replacing Ed Balls with Alistair Darling.
  • More f*ckwittery from Dr Tim, the man that thought Darling had saved the Union. What next, the Great British Bake Off will save the Union.

    'To save the Union, we have to say it out loud: Britain is the greatest country in the world'

    http://tinyurl.com/nvukn47

    I actually agree with his point (2) - a unifying charismatic UK leader could have rallied support.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2014


    I actually agree with his point (2) - a unifying charismatic UK leader could have rallied support.

    Watch the 2nd debate. Salmond got the loudest cheer when he called Darling a Tory.

    There is no such thing a unifying charismatic UK Tory leader that could have rallied support in Scotland from the people who are not already voting No.

    EDIT: Maybe a Tory leader riding a Unicorn might have worked...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.
  • Scott_P said:

    It'll be fine...

    @fletcherr: Yes vote would spark "deposit flight and deep recession" in Scotland warns Credit Suisse http://t.co/h9f2ZM2YIu

    "The redomiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs.....would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages driven by high unemployment."

    Bah! What do they know?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    you just don't get out enough Richard, I'm sat here in Birmingham and it's all about cuts.

    Sure, but you are missing my point. At the moment the Scots (and indeed to an extent the good people of Birmingham) think that increases in public spending can be paid for by someone else - the rich in the South East, Londoners, bankers, big corporations (we'll leave aside the question of whether this is true, it's the perception, amongst some at least). If Scotland goes independent, there is no-one else: any increases in public spending will clearly and unambiguously come directly out of the pockets of Scots. That will change attitudes.
    great post, people need to realise that when the Government provides something, it is not free, it is paid for by someone else. If you listen to the SNP they are promising a nirvana where everything is free. Nothing is free and is Scotland votes yes it will have less "rich" people to pay for everything for everyone else, taxes will have to go up.

    What is the point of opinion polls 6 months before a vote?
  • Hey Westminster!

    ENGLAND IS NOW AWAKE

    You may have been following Napoleon's quip about China - 'let them sleep'. Too late.

    The parties that try to block English self-realisation will get steamrollered by it. The ones that embrace it as part of a fully federal UK will ride it to victory.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Contrary to some on here, I suspect that in the event of a YES vote on September 18th, the Friday will see all sides desperately trying to calm, soothe and mollify. The rhetoric will be switched off and the air will be filled with the sound of sweet reason and compromise.

    David Cameron and Alex Salmond will meet within a day or so to promote the general sense of geniality, bonhomie and the notion that it's business as usual and life goes on. Neither will want to be hubristic, euphoric or rub the other's nose in the result (that can happen on places like this which don't matter).

    Above all, the aim will be to convince the markets and investors that everything has been planned for and everyting is under control.

    As to what will happen at the Party Conferences and especially at fringe meetings - well, as always, that's the most interesting part of all the Conferences.



    I really do think that there is probably not just a contingency plan for next week and the immediate aftermath, but a pretty well-formed view on how the divorce might work, ready and waiting for the politicians to then pick up and "negotiate" to a conclusion.
    You overestimate the British political classes. *They* haven't got a clue. They really believed YES was impossible - or we wouldn't be where we are now.

    The contingency plans probably amount to a drafted email in someone's outbox, never sent. I really seriously doubt that there are teams of workers hidden away in a Whitehall bunker, figuring out how to bring home the HMG call centres in Dundee on eighteen inflatable rafts. If there were, news would have leaked.

    As someone said downthread there will be an attempt to make it all look smooth. Salmond smiling next to a magnanimous Cameron, blah de blah, business as normal, don't scare the horses

    But the horses will be scared. They won't bolt immediately but they will escape. There will be slow but gathering chaos across the Establishment as we try to unpick 300 years of stitching. The economic pain won't come immediately, but it will come hard, and relentless: cross border trade will decrease (a known phenomenon; cf Slovakia), foreign investment will plummet (why risk your money in a country so unstable??), property prices will stagnate or head south, meaning consumer confidence ebbs away. A perfect storm for a new recession, which could be even nastier than the one we've just escaped.

    And all this while Scots and English alike are labouring under a vast deficit. Insane. Just insane. Like deciding to leap put of the lifeboat and swim for it - without taking off your heavy diving boots first.
    5/10 for hysteria.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    Yes, those too young to remember the dire state that the UK, including Scotland, was in before she rescued the country, but old enough to have been indoctrinated by the myths carefully built up subsequently by the left.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    you just don't get out enough Richard, I'm sat here in Birmingham and it's all about cuts.

    Sure, but you are missing my point. At the moment the Scots (and indeed to an extent the good people of Birmingham) think that increases in public spending can be paid for by someone else - the rich in the South East, Londoners, bankers, big corporations (we'll leave aside the question of whether this is true, it's the perception, amongst some at least). If Scotland goes independent, there is no-one else: any increases in public spending will clearly and unambiguously come directly out of the pockets of Scots. That will change attitudes.
    yeah that's one view on the other hand the people in the SE consistently vote for others to pick their pockets. If Cameron was more engaged with the rest of the country and his core voters realised they need to spread wealth around they would be under less pressure.
  • The demographics are clear - those who think they are in for freebies are Yes, those who fear they'll pay are No:

    Y/N (excl DK)
    ABC1: 43/57
    C2DE: 57/43
  • What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    edited September 2014
    Scott_P said:


    I actually agree with his point (2) - a unifying charismatic UK leader could have rallied support.

    Watch the 2nd debate. Salmond got the loudest cheer when he called Darling a Tory.

    There is no such thing a unifying charismatic UK Tory leader that could have rallied support in Scotland from the people who are not already voting No.

    EDIT: Maybe a Tory leader riding a Unicorn might have worked...
    So maybe Cameron's presence in a 4-way debate might have helped? Swinney, or a Scot Green or SSP rep could have balanced up YES. He could have drawn the sting from Darling, Darling could have criticised his policies but emphasised why such strange beasts were sharing the platform. As it was Darling was made to look like a Tory sock puppet.

    Cameron would have got a bit of respect for actually turning up and arguing his corner. It would look like he cared. I agree he would have got a very rough ride, but he could have still defended his ground in a Blair style masochism strategy.

    That's what leadership is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Cameron would have got a bit of respect for actually turning up and arguing his corner.

    No

    Look at the 'respect' Jim Murphy is getting...
  • What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?

    Yes, but markets might be reacting to no further momentum in the polls plus the GB 'fight back' on the news today. Betfair is similar.
  • Geographical breakdown :

    Y/N (excl DK)
    H&I: 55/45
    NE: 36/64
    Fife&Mid: 42/58
    Lothians: 47/53
    Central: 54/46
    Glasgow: 53/47
    West: 68/32
    South: 46/54
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
    Why has share ownership gone down then?
  • Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 1 min
    Ladbrokes: 100/1 that The Queen publically backs NO in the #indyref http://ow.ly/BgQDl
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TODAYS BJESUS

    9.9.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 239 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Ladbrokes offers 100/1 that The Queen publicly backs the No campaign.
  • Scott_P said:


    Cameron would have got a bit of respect for actually turning up and arguing his corner.

    No

    Look at the 'respect' Jim Murphy is getting...
    That's the YES rentamob. I think a lot of Scots admire his balls for getting out there and persevering. I certainly do.

    What's your alternative anyway? That NO don't bother to campaign?
  • SeanT said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Contrary to some on here, I suspect that in the event of a YES vote on September 18th, the Friday will see all sides desperately trying to calm, soothe and mollify. The rhetoric will be switched off and the air will be filled with the sound of sweet reason and compromise.

    David Cameron and Alex Salmond will meet within a day or so to promote the general sense of geniality, bonhomie and the notion that it's business as usual and life goes on. Neither will want to be hubristic, euphoric or rub the other's nose in the result (that can happen on places like this which don't matter).

    Above all, the aim will be to convince the markets and investors that everything has been planned for and everyting is under control.

    As to what will happen at the Party Conferences and especially at fringe meetings - well, as always, that's the most interesting part of all the Conferences.



    I really do think that there is probably not just a contingency plan for next week and the immediate aftermath, but a pretty well-formed view on how the divorce might work, ready and waiting for the politicians to then pick up and "negotiate" to a conclusion.
    You overestimate the British political classes. *They* haven't got a clue. They really believed YES was impossible - or we wouldn't be where we are now.

    The contingency plans probably amount to a drafted email in someone's outbox, never sent. I really seriously doubt that there are teams of workers hidden away in a Whitehall bunker, figuring out how to bring home the HMG call centres in Dundee on eighteen inflatable rafts. If there were, news would have leaked.

    As someone said downthread there will be an attempt to make it all look smooth. Salmond smiling next to a magnanimous Cameron, blah de blah, business as normal, don't scare the horses

    But the horses will be scared. They won't bolt immediately but they will escape. There will be slow but gathering chaos across the Establishment as we try to unpick 300 years of stitching. The economic pain won't come immediately, but it will come hard, and relentless: cross border trade will decrease (a known phenomenon; cf Slovakia), foreign investment will plummet (why risk your money in a country so unstable??), property prices will stagnate or head south, meaning consumer confidence ebbs away. A perfect storm for a new recession, which could be even nastier than the one we've just escaped.

    And all this while Scots and English alike are labouring under a vast deficit. Insane. Just insane. Like deciding to leap put of the lifeboat and swim for it - without taking off your heavy diving boots first.
    5/10 for hysteria.

    He's calmed down then? He was up at 8 or 9 after the YouGov.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Every BJESUS

    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    9.9.2014 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    TODAYS BJESUS

    9.9.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 239 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    Shouldn't you take out Scottish seats?
  • Quincel said:

    Ladbrokes offers 100/1 that The Queen publicly backs the No campaign.

    Isn't the bet 'officially' ? How is that defined?

    If it was on Betfair I might buy this to trade it out. Sort of feels more like a 25/1 shot that she makes a public statement to me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    On the other hand ARSE says One essential that will not change is that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    SeanT said:

    Every BJESUS

    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    9.9.2014 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

    Christ. What was the point in writing all that down? That's one of the saddest my-life-is-empty posts I've ever seen.
    Never heard of copy and paste?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
    Why has share ownership gone down then?
    No significant new privatisations, people selling shares to cover bills and building societies going tits up so wiping out the shares.
  • What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?

    "Scottish shares?"

    Three out if the four in that chart (Lloyds, RBS and Standard Life) will redomicile in the event of a Yes, and Eck's bestest mate, Sir Brian Souter's Stagecoach is still down.

    You really should read these things before you post them....
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    SeanT said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)



    I really do think that there is probably not just a contingency plan for next week and the immediate aftermath, but a pretty well-formed view on how the divorce might work, ready and waiting for the politicians to then pick up and "negotiate" to a conclusion.
    You overestimate the British political classes. *They* haven't got a clue. They really believed YES was impossible - or we wouldn't be where we are now.

    The contingency plans probably amount to a drafted email in someone's outbox, never sent. I really seriously doubt that there are teams of workers hidden away in a Whitehall bunker, figuring out how to bring home the HMG call centres in Dundee on eighteen inflatable rafts. If there were, news would have leaked.

    As someone said downthread there will be an attempt to make it all look smooth. Salmond smiling next to a magnanimous Cameron, blah de blah, business as normal, don't scare the horses

    But the horses will be scared. They won't bolt immediately but they will escape. There will be slow but gathering chaos across the Establishment as we try to unpick 300 years of stitching. The economic pain won't come immediately, but it will come hard, and relentless: cross border trade will decrease (a known phenomenon; cf Slovakia), foreign investment will plummet (why risk your money in a country so unstable??), property prices will stagnate or head south, meaning consumer confidence ebbs away. A perfect storm for a new recession, which could be even nastier than the one we've just escaped.

    And all this while Scots and English alike are labouring under a vast deficit. Insane. Just insane. Like deciding to leap put of the lifeboat and swim for it - without taking off your heavy diving boots first.
    5/10 for hysteria.

    He's calmed down then? He was up at 8 or 9 after the YouGov.....
    He wrecked the 'Shriek-o-meter' last night. All the dials went off the scale, and it's fuses blew.

    Who knows what might happen in a real crisis or disaster.


  • Never heard of copy and paste?

    We have all read your posts, yes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    TODAYS BJESUS

    9.9.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 239 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    Shouldn't you take out Scottish seats?
    No they will be in at GE2015 no matter what the result
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    I still haven't hear a convincing argument for the English to stick with a union and the more the talk is about concessions to the Scots, or in real speak, more English money subsidising the Scots, the more pro Yes I become.
    Now Brown's involved in No, the more I support yes.

    BTW cancelling the Scotland England football "friendly" match in November may be a prudent idea.
  • Someone in the Guardian said something to the effect that for Scots voters at the moment it was rather like ringing up to cancel your mobile contract and being offered a free upgrade and texts.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/08/england-love-bombing-scotland-no-vote-westminster?CMP=twt_gu
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?
    If the no vote wins (still the bookies favorite) he gets the credit for pulling off a last minute success.Even if Yes wins he can present himself of trying where others feared to tread.

    So what sort of benefits could he personally get? There is widespread assumption that if Scotland is independent then automatically the SNP will win the first set of elections.But this ignores the long Labour domination in Scotland .In my view its only matter of time before time before the Scottish Labour party gains power and maybe there would be major role for Gordon.
    In the no vote Max devo scenario then Gordon will have earned the credentials to lead Labour in the new Scottish parliament.In this Max devo set up Scottish MP,s would not be able to vote on English matters so Gordon,s talents would be unavailable for Westminster.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
    Why has share ownership gone down then?
    No significant new privatisations, people selling shares to cover bills and building societies going tits up so wiping out the shares.
    My understanding is that share ownership by the general public is lower now than in 1979. And many of the “public” untilities are now wholly owned by primarily non-British companies.
  • 'Whatever Scotland decides, the old order is dead and buried'
    - The union will likely be gone within a decade. It’s not just the Tories in our bankrupt establishment that are to blame

    ... Even if it is a close no, Scotland will be gone within a decade unless there is dramatic change: only the over-65s firmly oppose independence. The old order is dead, whatever happens. A new federal constitutional order – with sweeping devolution to the English regions and Wales, and to Scotland if it remains – must be built. Drawing on our shared traditions of fighting the powerful, English, Welsh and Scots must confront an establishment that will still reign, even if Scotland is formally independent. Too much damage may have been inflicted for anyone to listen to such a call. But the establishment should know: it is responsible for the looming break-up of the country.

    If Scotland votes to leave, or only narrowly remains, there will be a reckoning, and our bankrupt status quo must surely be swept away."


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/07/scotland-decides-union-tories
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Patrick said:

    Hey Westminster!

    ENGLAND IS NOW AWAKE

    You may have been following Napoleon's quip about China - 'let them sleep'. Too late.

    The parties that try to block English self-realisation will get steamrollered by it. The ones that embrace it as part of a fully federal UK will ride it to victory.

    I don't think England is yet awake. It is, however, waking up. In my work for "the Dark Side", as Mr. Brooke calls UKIP, nobody has mentioned the Scots Referendum to me on the doorstep but several have mentioned the Mathew Parris article and they are livid. It doesn't matter that Parris has no official connection with the Conservative Party, his views are seen to be those of the the modern Conservatives and people who might once have been expected to troop out to vote blue don't like them one bit. Nationally, I reckon Parris has lost the Conservatives hundreds of thousands of votes. Ordinary people are fed-up with the elites, the reaction to Parris is coming from the same well-spring as the likely English reaction to the Indy vote.

    As an aside, this to me is an example of how the internet has changed politics. Twenty years ago the Parris article would have been read by a relatively small number of people who take the Times and forgotten. I didn't see the original, I was alerted to it by a blog in the Telegraph. It was than picked up by other bloggers, hit twitter and instead of being seen by maybe 500,000 people his views have been broadcast to millions.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
    Why has share ownership gone down then?
    No significant new privatisations, people selling shares to cover bills and building societies going tits up so wiping out the shares.
    My understanding is that share ownership by the general public is lower now than in 1979. And many of the “public” untilities are now wholly owned by primarily non-British companies.
    wouldn't surprise me. When people need money they sell shares, I'll be selling a whack of mine to pay Uni fees. What's your point ?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    saddo said:

    I still haven't hear a convincing argument for the English to stick with a union and the more the talk is about concessions to the Scots, or in real speak, more English money subsidising the Scots, the more pro Yes I become.

    Any politicians offering further concessions, deserve to be filleted at the ballot box.

    As for Miliband whining 'Let's all fly the Saltire'. What a bell end.

    It reeks of a desperation to keep the Westminster set up nice and cosy for the boys on the gravy train.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736



    Never heard of copy and paste?

    We have all read your posts, yes.
    Have you?

    Thanks CTRLCd from my mobile
  • Alistair said:

    I think it's fairly notable that the group most in favour of independence, in all polls across all companies is the 35-44 year old group.

    Thatcher's Children.

    or families with children.
    Why has share ownership gone down then?
    No significant new privatisations, people selling shares to cover bills and building societies going tits up so wiping out the shares.
    My understanding is that share ownership by the general public is lower now than in 1979. And many of the “public” untilities are now wholly owned by primarily non-British companies.
    Often state-owned. For all the talk back in the 1980s, it seems companies *can* be owned and/or run by the dead hand of the state, so long as it is not the British state. Selling off the family silver, as it were.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Yes, those too young to remember the dire state that the UK, including Scotland, was in before she rescued the country, but old enough to have been indoctrinated by the myths carefully built up subsequently by the left.

    Indeed
    John_N said:

    You need to look at the independence referendum in Quebec. YES lost by 1% in 1995, and there hasn't been an independence referendum since.

    That needs to happen here. If "NO" wins there needs to be some guarantee of future stability. However I do wonder about the damage this whole affair is causing, fuelling resentment on both sides of the border.
  • Paddy Power - NEXT TO LEAVE THE COALITION CABINET

    Alistair Carmichael 7/4
    Vince Cable 5/1
    Nick Clegg 6/1
    Theresa Villiers 8/1
    Iain Duncan Smith 8/1
    Jeremy Hunt 10/1
    Elizabeth Truss 12/1
    Chris Grayling 12/1

    The MAX stake PP would allow me on Carmichael was 11 quid. I took it.

    Carmichael now 11/10.
  • rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?
    If the no vote wins (still the bookies favorite) he gets the credit for pulling off a last minute success.Even if Yes wins he can present himself of trying where others feared to tread.

    So what sort of benefits could he personally get? There is widespread assumption that if Scotland is independent then automatically the SNP will win the first set of elections.But this ignores the long Labour domination in Scotland .In my view its only matter of time before time before the Scottish Labour party gains power and maybe there would be major role for Gordon.
    In the no vote Max devo scenario then Gordon will have earned the credentials to lead Labour in the new Scottish parliament.In this Max devo set up Scottish MP,s would not be able to vote on English matters so Gordon,s talents would be unavailable for Westminster.

    Legacy. It makes him a winner - something he never was at Westminster.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    'Whatever Scotland decides, the old order is dead and buried'
    - The union will likely be gone within a decade. It’s not just the Tories in our bankrupt establishment that are to blame

    ... Even if it is a close no, Scotland will be gone within a decade unless there is dramatic change: only the over-65s firmly oppose independence. The old order is dead, whatever happens. A new federal constitutional order – with sweeping devolution to the English regions and Wales, and to Scotland if it remains – must be built. Drawing on our shared traditions of fighting the powerful, English, Welsh and Scots must confront an establishment that will still reign, even if Scotland is formally independent. Too much damage may have been inflicted for anyone to listen to such a call. But the establishment should know: it is responsible for the looming break-up of the country.

    If Scotland votes to leave, or only narrowly remains, there will be a reckoning, and our bankrupt status quo must surely be swept away."


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/07/scotland-decides-union-tories

    how did you put it ? idiot posts an idiot
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - Salmond to announce resignation as First Minister within 48 hours of result

    6/1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Patrick said:

    Hey Westminster!

    ENGLAND IS NOW AWAKE

    You may have been following Napoleon's quip about China - 'let them sleep'. Too late.

    The parties that try to block English self-realisation will get steamrollered by it. The ones that embrace it as part of a fully federal UK will ride it to victory.

    I don't think England is yet awake. It is, however, waking up. In my work for "the Dark Side", as Mr. Brooke calls UKIP, nobody has mentioned the Scots Referendum to me on the doorstep but several have mentioned the Mathew Parris article and they are livid. It doesn't matter that Parris has no official connection with the Conservative Party, his views are seen to be those of the the modern Conservatives and people who might once have been expected to troop out to vote blue don't like them one bit. Nationally, I reckon Parris has lost the Conservatives hundreds of thousands of votes. Ordinary people are fed-up with the elites, the reaction to Parris is coming from the same well-spring as the likely English reaction to the Indy vote.

    As an aside, this to me is an example of how the internet has changed politics. Twenty years ago the Parris article would have been read by a relatively small number of people who take the Times and forgotten. I didn't see the original, I was alerted to it by a blog in the Telegraph. It was than picked up by other bloggers, hit twitter and instead of being seen by maybe 500,000 people his views have been broadcast to millions.
    I agree that Parris has cost the Tories a lot of votes and done UKIP a favour...

    But the Clacton Gazette printing the reaction to the story accompanied by a photo of Parris didnt do much to refute his claims... it wasnt a picture of Matthew Parris!!
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - The Queen to officially back the NO campaign

    100/1
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    "The UK has passed a significant milestone towards becoming a graduate economy, with more people now likely to have a degree than to have only reached school-level qualifications.

    The OECD's annual international report highlights an "historic high" in the number of female graduates in the UK.

    But the report warns that despite the UK's surge in student numbers this is not matched by a rise in basic skills.

    High levels of literacy are more likely in Finland, Sweden and Japan.

    The OECD's annual Education at a Glance report reveals the "balance has shifted" towards a graduate workforce in the qualifications of the UK's adult population.......

    It means the UK has the highest proportion of adults with graduate-level qualifications in the European Union and is only surpassed by a handful of countries including South Korea and Japan.

    But the report highlights a disparity between the rising graduate numbers and weaknesses in core skills such as reading and writing.

    "On the one hand in the UK you can say qualification levels have risen enormously, lots more people are getting tertiary qualifications, university degrees, but actually not all of that is visible in better skills," said Andreas Schleicher, the OECD's director of education."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-29086591
  • What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?

    "Scottish shares?"

    Three out if the four in that chart (Lloyds, RBS and Standard Life) will redomicile in the event of a Yes, and Eck's bestest mate, Sir Brian Souter's Stagecoach is still down.

    You really should read these things before you post them....
    Funny, it was all Unionists screeching about 'Scottish based' companies yesterday.

    UK Riots, Scottish Banks, Irish Troubles, the Britnat psyche in a nutshell.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics · 3h
    Campaigning gets underway in Clacton. My report for Look East -12 mins in http://bbc.in/1omLnjP via @bbciplayer"

    Would recommend the clip.

    To summarise: Europe not featuring on the doorsteps - local issues more important.

    That doesn't necessarily favour the Tories but it must give them more ground to work with.
  • rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England. Even if it's a NO they'll lose devolved policy in England. Health, education, policing and the rest. They'll be neutered. This is why they hate England - they know England is more right wing than they are. A FUK is not going to be the PC/multiculti/bigspendy/bankruptopia of their wet dreams. A YES will rip out Labour's raison d'etre. So they roll out their Scottish cave troll to offer Scotland the moon whilst keeping its MPs in Westminster. Vile, self serving, anti-democratic cu^ts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Turnout Over 80% and Yes wins at 5/1 on Ladbrokes looks like a good bet doesn't it if you think it's going to be Yes?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Patrick said:

    rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England. Even if it's a NO they'll lose devolved policy in England. Health, education, policing and the rest. They'll be neutered. This is why they hate England - they know England is more right wing than they are. A FUK is not going to be the PC/multiculti/bigspendy/bankruptopia of their wet dreams. A YES will rip out Labour's raison d'etre. So they roll out their Scottish cave troll to offer Scotland the moon whilst keeping its MPs in Westminster. Vile, self serving, anti-democratic cu^ts.
    Calm down before you do yourself some damage.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What does he know?

    @MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: B&Q boss Sir Ian Cheshire warns over higher prices if Scots vote Yes in independence referendum next week. http://t.co/z1OJ2iAVRJ
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?

    "Scottish shares?"

    Three out if the four in that chart (Lloyds, RBS and Standard Life) will redomicile in the event of a Yes, and Eck's bestest mate, Sir Brian Souter's Stagecoach is still down.

    You really should read these things before you post them....
    Funny, it was all Unionists screeching about 'Scottish based' companies yesterday.

    UK Riots, Scottish Banks, Irish Troubles, the Britnat psyche in a nutshell.
    Did it not occur to you that the screeching might have been a little duplicitous and purposive? Tsk.

    Get the Scots worried about instability, get it on TV news - shares crashing! pound falling!

    Job done. Not many will notice the greater stability today.

    It's not just Nats who lie.
    Well done then, your impression of a beshitted hysteric convinced of impending apocalypse had me completely fooled.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Grandiose said:

    "Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics · 3h
    Campaigning gets underway in Clacton. My report for Look East -12 mins in http://bbc.in/1omLnjP via @bbciplayer"

    Would recommend the clip.

    To summarise: Europe not featuring on the doorsteps - local issues more important.

    That doesn't necessarily favour the Tories but it must give them more ground to work with.

    Local issues might help the Conservatives, unless someone asks them about the "localism" that Cameron was so full of in the run up to 2010.
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - Salmond to announce resignation as First Minister within 48 hours of result

    6/1

    Thanks, I've made a small investment as I suspect Salmond will step aside whether he wins or loses. Only a small one mind. If yes wins, Salmond goes down in history. There is no real attraction in hanging around for several years of negotiations.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Grandiose said:

    "Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics · 3h
    Campaigning gets underway in Clacton. My report for Look East -12 mins in http://bbc.in/1omLnjP via @bbciplayer"

    Would recommend the clip.

    To summarise: Europe not featuring on the doorsteps - local issues more important.

    That doesn't necessarily favour the Tories but it must give them more ground to work with.

    Local issues might help the Conservatives, unless someone asks them about the "localism" that Cameron was so full of in the run up to 2010.
    well Clacton IS more local to London than Warwickshire
  • What's this?

    Jonathan Gordon ‏@ScotsProgress
    @WingsScotland "Scottish Shares Recover COMPLETELY" @BBCJamesCook @BBCScotlandNews @BBCScotland @AngusMacNeilMP
    http://tinyurl.com/oyzw63m

    Wouldyoufukkinbelieveit, stocks go up as well as down. Who knew?

    "Scottish shares?"

    Three out if the four in that chart (Lloyds, RBS and Standard Life) will redomicile in the event of a Yes, and Eck's bestest mate, Sir Brian Souter's Stagecoach is still down.

    You really should read these things before you post them....
    Funny, it was all Unionists screeching about 'Scottish based' companies yesterday.

    UK Riots, Scottish Banks, Irish Troubles, the Britnat psyche in a nutshell.
    If you will persist in digging, this is what the CEO of the fourth company you cited had to say:

    Aggreko says Scottish independence would cause it years of uncertainty
    Power generation company predicts significant extra costs and complexity if Scotland leaves UK


    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/06/aggreko-scottish-independence-uk

    So your much vaunted "recovery in Scottish shares" was among four companies, three of which will redomicile and the fourth of which has warned of "significant extra costs and complexity" of independence.

    But apart from that, great post.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Patrick said:

    rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England. Even if it's a NO they'll lose devolved policy in England. Health, education, policing and the rest. They'll be neutered. This is why they hate England - they know England is more right wing than they are. A FUK is not going to be the PC/multiculti/bigspendy/bankruptopia of their wet dreams. A YES will rip out Labour's raison d'etre. So they roll out their Scottish cave troll to offer Scotland the moon whilst keeping its MPs in Westminster. Vile, self serving, anti-democratic cu^ts.
    Remind us who is vile?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The thought of malcolmg at one of the Krankies swingers parties required more mind bleach that I can drink at this hour of the morning!

    I fear for malcolmg's blood pressure. He hasn't been this excited since Wee Jimmy Krankie sat on his knee...

  • Patrick said:

    rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England.......
    Oh good heavens! It's contagious.....

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    edited September 2014

    Grandiose said:

    "Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics · 3h
    Campaigning gets underway in Clacton. My report for Look East -12 mins in http://bbc.in/1omLnjP via @bbciplayer"

    Would recommend the clip.

    To summarise: Europe not featuring on the doorsteps - local issues more important.

    That doesn't necessarily favour the Tories but it must give them more ground to work with.

    Local issues might help the Conservatives, unless someone asks them about the "localism" that Cameron was so full of in the run up to 2010.
    Leaving the tube question in was an own goal. Surely in this day & age it’s not that difficult to tweak a leaflet? It’ll be going out in Devon like that next!

    Sea defences might be something to talk about.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And that your shoes are still your avatar!

    Plato said:

    Those who think that a major IT system can't be either shifted or replicated within either a day or two or at worst in a month is kidding themselves.

    Indeed. The whole point of disaster recovery is that the system is up and running in hours, possibly minutes. Having helped set up DR systems I know how it works.

    BTW Plato - nice to hear from you again :-)
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just reading last night's thread and was interested to see that in the discussion about sport in India, with many remarks about cricket and football, nobody mentioned hockey.

    Hockey is still the national sport of India, and was more popular than cricket until, I believe, the late 70s when Pakistan started to beat them regularly. I think there were 15 years during which India won just once in 10 major tournament matches against their rivals. During this time India won the cricket World Cup and cricket became the number one sport for most Indians
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)



    I really do think that there is probably not just a contingency plan for next week and the immediate aftermath, but a pretty well-formed view on how the divorce might work, ready and waiting for the politicians to then pick up and "negotiate" to a conclusion.
    You overestimate the British political classes. *They* haven't got a clue. They really believed YES was impossible - or we wouldn't be where we are now.

    The contingency plans probably amount to a drafted email in someone's outbox, never sent. I really seriously doubt that there are teams of workers hidden away in a Whitehall bunker, figuring out how to bring home the HMG call centres in Dundee on eighteen inflatable rafts. If there were, news would have leaked.

    As someone said downthread there will be an attempt to make it all look smooth. Salmond smiling next to a magnanimous Cameron, blah de blah, business as normal, don't scare the horses

    But the horses will be scared. They won't bolt immediately but they will escape. There will be slow but gathering chaos across the Establishment as we try to unpick 300 years of stitching. The economic pain won't come immediately, but it will come hard, and relentless: cross border trade will decrease (a known phenomenon; cf Slovakia), foreign investment will plummet (why risk your money in a country so unstable??), property prices will stagnate or head south, meaning consumer confidence ebbs away. A perfect storm for a new recession, which could be even nastier than the one we've just escaped.

    And all this while Scots and English alike are labouring under a vast deficit. Insane. Just insane. Like deciding to leap put of the lifeboat and swim for it - without taking off your heavy diving boots first.
    5/10 for hysteria.

    He's calmed down then? He was up at 8 or 9 after the YouGov.....
    He wrecked the 'Shriek-o-meter' last night. All the dials went off the scale, and it's fuses blew.

    Who knows what might happen in a real crisis or disaster.
    Wait til you see my piece in the Spectator.
    #

    Please let us all know, with URL, when it appears.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    John_N said:

    Looking at the polls I would say the Nats have won and independence is certain.

    They may not win this referendum, but it looks like the margin of defeat or victory will be small so that even a win for "NO" will simply fire up Nat enthusiasm for further referenda until they get the "right" result.

    I disagree. The YESniks w'll blame the English because they lost, of course - e.g. in the form of the "London media" or "Westminster" or "the Tories" or other euphemisms for what privately some of them call "FEBs", standing for "F'cking English B'stards", but that's just insulting the Scottish electorate. You need to look at the independence referendum in Quebec. YES lost by 1% in 1995, and there hasn't been an independence referendum since. Admittedly there had been an earlier one in 1980, where they got beaten by 19%. But things have moved on since the early 1980s. Unemployment was rising then, but nowadays personal debt is far higher and most people know the whole financial system could go 'crash'.

    Never heard the expression FEB. And there are plenty of English incomers in the Yes movement and SNP.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    NEW - Ladbrokes - Salmond to announce resignation as First Minister within 48 hours of result

    6/1

    Thanks, I've made a small investment as I suspect Salmond will step aside whether he wins or loses. Only a small one mind. If yes wins, Salmond goes down in history. There is no real attraction in hanging around for several years of negotiations.
    In the event of Yes I think he would have to stick around for the negotiation - whether he did that by resigning the First Minsiter position to Sturgeon so he could concentrate on the negotiations is an interesting question.

    I think it more like, in the event of Yes, that he stays first minister and then stands for the new independent parliament and sticks around for one term. He then retires and the SNP completely disintegrates with absolutely nothing to hold them together.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Patrick said:

    rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England.......
    Oh good heavens! It's contagious.....

    It's spread to The Telegraph too, if you can be bothered to read SeanT's hysterical, chest beating, hair tearing out, wailing and weeping article.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My favourite Latin phrase is Deus Ex Machina - the ultimate Get Out Of Jail Free card when you've painted yourself into a corner. Politicians always seem to be trying to conjure one up ;^ )

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_ex_machina

    King Cole, dei?

    Depends on whether you’re a monotheist or not, doesn’it? If it’s “dei”, isn’t it “volent”?

    My Latin is very poor anyway.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Meanwhile constitutional issues in another far-flung corner of the union:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/stormont-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-says-robinson-1.1922667
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Scottish independence is heretical and blasphemous. It offends the the very nature of the divine being whose every whim man must serve.
    All bow down and repent before the "Market" lest it smite thee without mercy.
    I love English Tories and their quaint fascination with false gods.
  • SeanT said:

    A modest blog by me where I admit I was right about everything to do with the referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Thanks to Moniker for the "wanton destruction" phrase.

    I'm sure your fans will take every word to heart:

    Such as a leaner, meaner Tory party under a Eurosceptic like Philip Hammond, united in a Coalition with Nigel Farage’s Ukip, sweeping into power, taking us out of Europe, and forcing through a ferocious divorce with the helpless, grass-eating Scots where they get a broken souvenir from Benidorm, and not much else.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    SeanT said:

    A modest blog by me where I admit I was right about everything to do with the referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Thanks to Moniker for the "wanton destruction" phrase.

    I'm sure your fans will take every word to heart:

    Such as a leaner, meaner Tory party under a Eurosceptic like Philip Hammond, united in a Coalition with Nigel Farage’s Ukip, sweeping into power, taking us out of Europe, and forcing through a ferocious divorce with the helpless, grass-eating Scots where they get a broken souvenir from Benidorm, and not much else.
    Has SeantT swung back to being a eurosceptic again?!

    I cant keep up any more.

  • Just a quickie in passing.

    Douglas Carswell has written a blog this morning for the DT in which he laments how 8,000 have to share one GP and it's not right.

    Apparently, however, this hapless overworked GP is...Romanian!

    Is this actually true? Anyone know?
  • Patrick said:

    rogerh said:

    What is the real motivation of Gordon Brown taking the lead in the Max Devo Campaign.?

    Labour are desperate. They will lose their SLAB blockvote. So they'll lose the WLQ and England.......
    Oh good heavens! It's contagious.....

    It's spread to The Telegraph too, if you can be bothered to read SeanT's hysterical, chest beating, hair tearing out, wailing and weeping article.
    I look forward to next week's denouncing the yellow livered limp wrested poncy big Jessie's who had an attack of the vapours at a narrowing of the polls.....
  • SeanT said:

    A modest blog by me where I admit I was right about everything to do with the referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Thanks to Moniker for the "wanton destruction" phrase.

    So tell me dear Cyberunionists:

    We're "better together" except when it comes to international representation in our three most popular team sports, Football, Rugby and Cricket? Are we therefore psychologically already separate? Even since the 19th century when separate sport leagues were set up?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Plato said:

    And that your shoes are still your avatar

    Alas! They are long gone... :-( And their replacements are on the verge of collapse as well. How are the cats keeping?
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    A modest blog by me where I admit I was right about everything to do with the referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Thanks to Moniker for the "wanton destruction" phrase.

    I'm sure your fans will take every word to heart:

    Such as a leaner, meaner Tory party under a Eurosceptic like Philip Hammond, united in a Coalition with Nigel Farage’s Ukip, sweeping into power, taking us out of Europe, and forcing through a ferocious divorce with the helpless, grass-eating Scots where they get a broken souvenir from Benidorm, and not much else.
    I do have some fans on there, now. Comment below the line:

    "twowolves • 6 minutes ago
    Sean, you are the best and most gifted writer on the Telegraph payroll, I immensely enjoy your every publication. They should make you editor.

    Write more, please."

    That's not my mum, honest. Hah. Also he's slightly over-egging the pudding. Bojo on form is still the best columnist, by a distance.
    My favourite so far:

    Hagman20 • 9 minutes ago
    Limeys are so funny, when they panic. Who needs union really?


    I'm sure the Barclay Brothers will regard your services as good value.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited September 2014
    twitter.com/Herald_Editor/status/509211679243382784/photo/1

    Herald cartoon ...
  • Miss Plato, deus ex machina is the bane of books. Incidentally, it refers to Greek theatre, where a tangled plot would end up being resolved by a god stepping in and making everything better (or worse, of course). I have vague memories of reading that it pissed off audiences even back then.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    A modest blog by me where I admit I was right about everything to do with the referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Thanks to Moniker for the "wanton destruction" phrase.

    I'm sure your fans will take every word to heart:

    Such as a leaner, meaner Tory party under a Eurosceptic like Philip Hammond, united in a Coalition with Nigel Farage’s Ukip, sweeping into power, taking us out of Europe, and forcing through a ferocious divorce with the helpless, grass-eating Scots where they get a broken souvenir from Benidorm, and not much else.
    I do have some fans on there, now. Comment below the line:

    "twowolves • 6 minutes ago
    Sean, you are the best and most gifted writer on the Telegraph payroll, I immensely enjoy your every publication. They should make you editor.

    Write more, please."

    That's not my mum, honest. Hah. Also he's slightly over-egging the pudding. Bojo on form is still the best columnist, by a distance.
    I fear that a large number of those 'fans', are not the kind of individuals that one would like to find unexpectedly waiting for you at home, on a dark and lonely night.
This discussion has been closed.