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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinno
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992
Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992.
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Like the Union on the 19th.....with a bit of luck!
China's literal empire building - a bit scary.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29107792
Alistair Carmichael 7/4
Vince Cable 5/1
Nick Clegg 6/1
Theresa Villiers 8/1
Iain Duncan Smith 8/1
Jeremy Hunt 10/1
Elizabeth Truss 12/1
Chris Grayling 12/1
The MAX stake PP would allow me on Carmichael was 11 quid. I took it.
8/1 (from 33/1)
Yes 50% (+8)
No 50% (-8)
- "... we also have to bear in mind the crucial weighting that TNS are failing to apply - namely country of birth. It's mainly among online pollsters that we have evidence that there is almost always too great a number of English-born respondents in the raw data, but if by any chance this general rule also applies to non-online firms, then a weighting to correct the error would probably be sufficient to push Yes into a clear lead in tonight's poll.
Although Panelbase may be in disagreement with TNS and YouGov about the overall trend, the one thing all three firms agree on is that the gender gap has narrowed of late."
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/yes-draw-level-in-electrifying-poll.html
More likely other groups get blamed - the English born for No, the EU born for Yes.......hours, if not weeks and months of harmful vituperation.....
Gotta love PB Tories. Such a pleasant bunch.
At some point soon the bill will arrive and then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people.
Buyer remorse on a narrow majority will make Scotland one grim place,
They did the deals, then backtracked when a few people started to whine.
You can't deal with someone like that in a repeated game series. Standard response would be to employ a tit for tat strategy, but Cameron wasn't prepared to do that.
Even today I reckon cameron could trade HoL reform for boundary change but he's too stupid to do it. He'd rather sit on his hands and then watch the HoL get reformed in a way he can do nothing about. He's just not good at politics.
And of course at some point a kipper will now come along and ask you if Cameron can be trusted to keep his word.
The Scottish economy has slightly more public sector workers than the UK as a whole, about 20%, says Prof David Bell of the University of Stirling on Wake Up to Money. Oil and finance are big chunks of its economy, and it spends more per head of public money.
Oh yes, that would be you.......
Poor sensitive wee soul.
So here it is again for anybody who missed it.... http://t.co/96pgJZ6KGM
Talented Scots gained from The Union - Hume, Smith and others pushed forward influential ideas on politics and economics beyond the little United Kingdom.
Salmond is coy about the cost of setting up a new administrative structure - whose going to run his income tax and corporation taxes for him, or will he just have outsource them to England?
Salmond was canny to link 2014 Vote to Bannockburn - biggest date in Scots history, which most Scots will have learnt at school - and the feel good of Glasgow 2014 may have also swayed the unwary. Cameron has been a bloody fool, letting his political enemies make the running for the last 72 hours. Letting Brown set some sort of post vote agenda of his own is like giving 16 year olds keys to the drinks cabinet. But then Salmond and the Gnats still think that 16 year olds are big and bold enough to vote, whereas most significant democracies remain wary of that group's political judgement. It looks like desperation, smells like desperation and as convincing as Salmond's puerile jokes about Pandas.
when did "canny" come to mean thick ?
The pound dropped today because of Barack Obama.
I kid you not, she did say it.
https://t.co/bm6CQ7PcEW
@BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband urges Labour councils (and others) to fly the Saltire to show their support for Scotland remaining in the Union #indyref
@DPJHodges: Does the Labour party actually want to save the Union > Telegraph > http://t.co/ihE3gyc14M
Given that now every age group under 55 is reported to have a YES majority, if there is the anticipated 84% turnout, the built-in bias in favour of the status quo among older votes will disappear.
I agree that the 3 Westminster party leaders have to leave it to Brown. None of them are regarded in Scotland outside their "constituency" . The NO side already has the Scottish Tories solidly behind it and LibDems are disappearing faster than the Winter King's power in Prague so it is down to Labour.
Frankly if I was a Scottish Labour voter, I would be voting YES. Indeed if my head didn't rule my heart, I would be voting YES. UK plc is on the point of liquidation. It just remains to be seen whether it is a members voluntary liquidation or a creditors enforced liquidation.
Incidentally I chose the analogy of the Winter King given that his wife was the last Princess of Scots born in Scotland and it is through her Elizabeth II sits on the combined thrones.
This is things like the recall mechanism, open primaries, reversing the Labour assault on civil liberties and cutting the deficit - supposedly the central purpose of the Coalition.
Even if you give the Coalition a free pass on the policies which were always going to be difficult - because of fundamental differences between the two parties - such as Europe and immigration, the performance of the Coalition has been decidedly lacklustre.
Those names mentioned (absent Javid) are a magnificent combination of the has been and never will be which perhaps suggests that their complaints are not entirely related to Scotland.
A lot of HMRC's work is done in Scotland. I recently sent a cheque to Glasgow to increase my daughter's investment in Premium Bonds. Doubtless there are other examples.
England will most likely still be trying to replace these services with new computer systems in England well into the 2020s.
if there is an existing HMG system that happens to be physically housed in Scotland, they can move it. No need to recreate it.
The Scottish Government has to build one from scratch, or buy one from somewhere
You know, I've got to the point where I'm thinking if they want to leave, let them leave. Rather than this embarrassing last-minute 'but but but we'll give you all this extra stuff!' bribery that will do nothing but store up even more constitutional problems for the future (DevoMax = WLQ Max, have I heard anything about constitutional reform for England? Not a jot).
I have no doubt a Scottish state will be viable and will probably be fairly successful in the long term. But I await the realisation that there is no land of milk and honey over the hill. Scotland will likely face economic difficulties, massive economic rebalancing (and a fair amount of pain in the jobs market), tax rises or big cuts (bye bye free tuition) and will still have dodgy self-serving politicians who can't answer a straight question.
It will probably be the fault of the English when this all happens, of course. "If you hadnae refused to give us the pound!"
One of the more pernicious but persuasive lies told by the SNP is that we cannot have a fair country as a part of the UK. Labour tilled the soil and planted the seed for that lie with their anti tory rhetoric. It is up to them to fix it.
Cameron's lilo act - either he hopes that his enemies make a mistake and he can get away with doing noting, or he has decided to say nothing on the grounds that it is better to remain a fool by remaining silent...
Can't see how the parties go have their conferences, parliament gets recalled instead. Massive pressure on Cameron from an angry establishment, a press mob led by Murdoch for his head, calls for a fresh government to lead negotiations and multiple resignations from Cabinet (as hinted at by Tim Shipman over the weekend). Faced with a Labour confidence motion and utter chaos if he is forced to resign (who is the obvious successor?) he decides to take the Samson option and instructs his whips to have MPs vote down their own government.
As a yes vote will be like a nuke going off in the establishment let's say 2 -3 weeks for parliament to about at each other (so no Labour or Tory conferences) with a confidence motion at the end of that period. So an election on 30th October?
Seriously, we need to look at the immediate implications of a yes vote. If you think it'll be business as usual you are mad. As a Brit first and an Englishman second I want a no vote, but I think it'll be yes. And part of me thinks a bit of revolution wouldn't be a bad thing.....
Scottish independence: The Queen is urged to intervene
Senior MPs have suggested an intervention from Her Majesty could 'make all the difference' as a new TNS poll shows the Yes and No campaigns running neck and neck
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11083204/Scottish-independence-The-Queen-is-urged-to-intervene.html
The idea that there will only be downsides for Scotland is absurd.
Similarly rUK gets 100% of the Bank of England, not 92%.
Simple, isn't it?
He was told to F*** OFF. More absolute lies about fairytale timetables of more jam being found is a loser like Brown.
So post independence it will be vacating Scottish premises and moving South. I'm sure that it will be able to assign some of its assets to the Scottish successor but that will be a matter for Scotland, not rUK - will there need to be as many employees, for instance?
What a turnip.
We now have rare moment where rapid change is possible.There is cross party agreement for a federal structure-max devo in vote from the Scots the event of a No vote.
Either way the Scottish vote leaves the rest of the UK with unanswered constitutional questions.
Its time that the English Welsh and Northern Irish had their voice heard,their chance to vote in referendum on a federal solution,Max devo, for their own Parliaments.Each would have only their own MP,s voting on domestic matters( eg English votes on English matters.
Their would remain certain areas that require UK wide decisions,such as defense international affairs and UK wide financial matters.Here a small elected second chamber would be required.Given this and domestic matters dealt with by the separate parliaments the HOL looks irrelevant and in simple terms should be abolished.
I would also not expect an immediate vote of no confidence/cancelation of conferences/ resignations. There needs to be a few weeks pause for thought.
Stiff upper lip please! We are British.
Reality is both sides will split assets , and for some agreed period will pay each other to provide current services whilst an orderly division / move takes place over a number of years. Some will be instant some will take longer, I seriously doubt either side will wish to be nasty and throw large amounts of people out of jobs on each side and destroy the services just for the sake of it. Only nasty vindictive morons like Scott and Carlotta are wishing for that , very sad to see the vitriol they spout against their country.
There are many UK ministries which have their "nuts and bolts" based in Scotland such as HMRC and pensions. They cannot just be moved. It takes years to plan and execute logistical changes on that scale. If English based organisations can outsource their entire backroom to India etc they can outsource them to Cowlairs or Cumbernauld. It will be far less expensive and far less disruptive to squabble over such minor things when so many major things will have to be decided.
We are in for a difficult enough couple of years on both sides of Hadrian's Wall if and assuming there is a YES vote next week. Politicians will be only too happy to kick much of the trivial into the long grass. Too many of them will be concentrating on keeping their jobs.
If we do vote YES next week, I suspect huge political changes will start in England. Where they will lead frankly doesn't bother me too much. I will be too busy doing my bit to make Scotland as successful as possible.
That Scots only want independence because they hate the Tories, yet Conservatives are such lovable creatures that misguided and beguiled Scots only think they are rotters and bounders and cads because of Labour lies, so it's all Ed Miliband's fault and the Prime Minister won't have to resign after all.
I am sure Scotland can prosper in the future as an independent country, but it will not be the Socialist Nirvana that Snake-oil Salmond is selling.
What a turnip.
a thick lying Tory like you
LOL, you really are stupid
You are one real thick sad sack,
you moron.
The standard of debate has really risen since malcolmg woke up.
A thread on what the impact would be if the result is a narrow No would be interesting too? Less traumatic, but possibly quite seismatic all the same.
Frothers on here should be heading to the lifeboat queues.
As for moving, large systems like this have Disaster Recovery capability in case the building floods or catches fire. If the DR site for a system is across the border it could move over a weekend.
So what you don't do with nine days to go is suddenly to turn round and look like it's infact YOU who'll fall apart if they leave.
Sean Fear said down thread that 'Cameron isn't good at politics though he looks Prime Ministerial'. It is the very job description of an advertising account exec the job he cut his teeth on before his promotion to PM.
Their sole function is to look good and keep their clients perky. The skill and talent lie elsewhere. It has often been asked 'Why do we need account execs?" to which the answer is while clients are as they are they'll always need someone to ........
The 'system' is in England, and will remain so. HMG could 'outsource' document scanning to a foreign country. Or, like the BBC, they could say to current HMG staff in Scotland "your job is now in Liverpool if you still want it"
Because we have been a small part of a spectacularly successful Union giving us access to a large, stable and wealthy domestic market as well as, historically, one of the world's major empires.
This has allowed us to build a financial services industry several times larger than an independent Scotland would have managed, it has allowed our food producers certainty and ease of access making them confident about becoming export orientated, it has allowed our Universities access to research funds and projects that would have been beyond Scotland alone and it has given our children a range of opportunities that we would not have on our own.
Will we be able to survive without such great benefits? Yes, of course, but those who think that we are not giving up a great deal that will rapidly impact on our standard of living and the level of our public services are deluding themselves.
My guess is that we are in for a very difficult decade during which many of our more able an ambitious children will leave. We are better together.
The days of hiring an ox-cart to head over to the next village and buy a replacement olde shoppe after yours has been burned down by Vikings have long gone.