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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It really is squeaky bum time: TNS have the gap down to just one percent
The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face.
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27th of August to the 4th of September
Some 30 per cent now believe Mr Cameron should quit as Prime Minister in the case of a Yes vote - up from 22 per cent on Friday, the YouGov poll for The Sun found.
Half (50 per cent) think he should remain as PM while the rest (21 per cent) don’t know.
Meanwhile 31 per cent believe Ed Miliband should resign as Labour leader if Scotland quits the UK, with 47 per cent say he should stay.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5893617/third-voters-david-cameron-resign-scottish-independence.html
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Ah, the junky, scum, Nazi, racist, piece of dogshit, retard, moron, w!nker banter. How we laughed.
I have seen plenty of that talk from the Yes side. I'm sorry, but I don't see how anyone can claim moral high ground here, and if it becomes a debate of worse offenders, one side may well be worse, but no-one's coming off well.
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If it was anything like today it would have been individuals posting a paradoxical combo of suggested cruel and unusual punishments for ungrateful Scotland leaving whilst ostensibly wanting a No vote. It's rather like telling your wife you'll make sure she is ruined if she ever tries to divorce you.
Unfortunate, but not really paradoxical - one side does not want a divorce, therefore if pleading does not work threats will follow, along with indignant comments that they'll be fine, but you won't be. To my mind the No side have not tried enough pleading. I doubt it would work, it comes across as a bit pathetic, but I'd sacrifice dignity in this fight quite quickly.
Surely time for certain PBers wallowing in catharsis to tediously bang on about a certain South Yorkshire town?
So he's the one that must resign. Obviously.
EICIPM less than 8 months to go
Pointless, those in Scotland that are "royalists" will have already made up their mind to vote "yes". The voters "no" needs to shift are at the republican end (left wing/labour mainly), and a call by the monarch will fall on deaf ears.
In all seriousness, I think it's too late to change things. The momentum has taken hold, the narrative of Yes has been adopted, and as we've seen from their steady march in all these decades, once it takes hold, people have that fervour for the long term.
Now just a question of what Wales can be offered to stop them going further, but once Scotland goes it's hard to not see them going as well at some point - Scotland will do fine in the long term, and they have all the time in the world, it is not as though Wales will become less Labour dominated (unless it is to PC), so if England is tacking right, they will feel even more distinct before too long.
Perhaps we can at least prevent Cornwell splintering off in the long run? Yorkshire?
She is Queen of the Commonwealth, and will still be Queen of Scots under a Yes.
We realise we are the heartbeat and glue of the UK.
It's the equivalent of an ICM Wisdom Index and it shows a large lead for No in terms of what people think the result will be.
That could be key. ICM Wisdom has a history of being a good predictor.
I think it will lead eventually to a more "federalized" country (old counties perhaps?), and the political shift will be far more complex
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxCfDTgIMAApANG.jpg
Mind you he also promised no Top Down NHS reorganisation
If the answer to that question is "someone worse" it would not be a good idea to go
Mind you I wouldnt trust him.
Of the two, I can see Cameron resigning very easily in shame, despite his protestations and such a poll supporting him staying on. Miliband I cannot see going of his own accord, given he will be PM in less than a year, and I cannot see him being pushed unless Labour think someone else would appeal to England more than him. Any ideas?
Perhaps people will re-evaluate him as a politician. Discuss
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxClFwpIQAASZWp.jpg
Perhaps he secretly favours Yes so he can get out on a point of high-minded principle rather than face near certain defeat at the ballot box?
Good man in a crisis - it was everything else he struggled with.
Ed started campaigning in Scotland last week, and Friday afternoon, Roger said no would win and it has been downhill for No ever since.
Just found this comment
David Cameron has said he "emphatically" will not resign if Scotland votes to leave the UK, as his leadership is not the matter at stake in the referendum.
Labour in Scotland truly is a talent free zone. I wonder if it has gotten worse or better since a lot of list candidates were unexpectedly elected due to the catastrophic loss of constituency MSPs.
It's nonsense.
As some on here might have noticed, I am not Dave C's biggest fan.
But, I see no reason why he should feel the need to resign over a democratic vote that he could never of had control of.
Gordon Brown ready to deploy the campaigning nous that won Labour 29% of the vote at the last election.
If not why?
Having said all that, there will be a lot of pressure if it's a Scottish yes, followed by a UKIP victory in Clacton - then the media and tory backbenches really will be baying for blood.
Perhaps Hammond next tory leader @ 16/1 (lads) would be the best bet to cover such a scenario? - That bet would also keep alive into a post 2015 conservative defeat leadership election scenario.
Can anyone else see any value bets if Cameron is forced out?
Some people on here seem to be in a bubble cut off from where normal non-political people inhabit.
Labour have been fronting the NO campaign,you forget to mention this,how useless,this negative campaign by the labour party
Vastly different I would suggest.
Why would he bother resigning then?
It looks like those (and you know who you are) who were suckered into taking Shadsy's two pronged bet requiring both the NOs to win and for the turnout to be less than 80% have lost their money. If not on the first count, then almost certainly on the second.
So tonight we have the 2nd poll in 2 days basically saying it is 50/50. Jonah Brown couldn't save himself let alone the UK. We are doomed doomed doomed as Pte Fraser would say.
There were suggestions this morning that the Scottish Sun is going to come out for YES. Has anyone else heard this?
I've never thought him as bad as seems to be common thinking, I personally find Blair far more odious though perhaps it is a raw talent issue and Blair does have some of that, but I will happily see him honoured if he can manage it.
OTOH he may be being set up as a scapegoat. There will be a lot of blame to go around, plenty to Brown anyway, but the more ire can be focused on one person the easier it might be for others to divert blame and save themselves.
Hence why Sajid is a good bet
I would have liked Scotland to stay but all things considered, it might be best having the Nats outside the tent pissing in, than inside the tent pissing in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Labour_Party_leadership_election,_2011
The Mail has always had a bit of a weird crush on Brown. Dacre is good mates with him.
'So more people believe that Miliband should resign?? That has to be angry Labourites. '
It's Labour voters that will swing the result for Yes,he will permanently lose 40 of his MP's & it will be very difficult for Labour to get an overall majority in rUK.
And Cameron's enemies who are saying he would have to resign? They are the very right wing extremists that Salmond is using to encourage the YES vote. Do you really think that the sight of Nigel Farage and rising polls for UKIP is encouraging people to vote NO?
Depending on what you'd devolve, it doesn't make much sense to federalize down to that level. Should Essex really have it's own education system, for example?
And you are not alone.
This is what is commonly referred to as "a tipping point".
Ta ra.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI
@bgreysk @IpsosMORI our final poll will be out on 17th - day before. No published results before then
And yet, and yet.. the shift looks too sudden, and the apparent causes too trivial. This looks very odd - it's not as though Salmond has suddenly come up with a credible answer to anything in the last couple of weeks. Rather the reverse, in fact. And the record, such as it is, on referendum polls in the UK is dire.
I wonder if the key to this conundrum is perhaps this paragraph:
TNS surveys over the past six months have consistently shown that 70%-75% said they were certain to vote. This has leapt to 84% in the latest poll. This increase is evident across the population, but is especially pronounced among women and those aged 16-34 years.
Is this because people feel they ought to say they will vote, given the intensity of the campaigns and the media attention? And, if so, will they actually do so, and vote Yes? If they've changed their minds in the last couple of weeks in one direction, will they stick to it? Is it a Cleggasm Mark 2?
I don't know the answer to these questions, so I'm keeping my betting position limited and tactical.
It suggests that deep down people think it will be a carbon copy of Quebec.
More than 100 MPs and ministers will travel to Scotland between now and the date of the referendum on September 18
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11082963/Labour-to-flood-Scotland-with-MPs-to-save-union-and-their-political-future.html
I think I was one of the first on here with tim to criticize the policy.
By the way did you ever provide an answer to which party pioneered the bedroom tax and NHS privatization?
I'll be back in the morning to check no rush for the answer, any time tonight will do.
It's Why the "Oz and Dave" duo had no cards to play in the referendum.
They really are toxic for the large majority of Scots......we are, like parts of the north of England, intrinsically socialist*
*small "S" intentional.