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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

Not too long after the 2012 White House race Sporting Index disappeared from the political betting scene. This was to be much regretted. I’m a huge spread betting fan and just love the way that political futures can be traded like stocks and shares.

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Hertsmere_Pubgoer

1st?

MikeK

Secondus?

Peter_the_Punter

Well done, SPIN.

Turnout is a buy.

The IndyRef market is a good way of hedging your bets,

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, yay, the party seat spreads were usually a good indicator of how the political wind was blowing in the last parliament.

And well, everyone finds the indyref irresistible, I'm surprised they've managed to resist for so long.

Sean_F

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Socrates

FalseFlag said:

Socrates said:

FalseFlag said:

Socrates said:

FalseFlag said:

BenM said:

Patrick said:

A Le Pen presidency would be brilliant for France.

Sure I disagree with pretty much all she says, certanly the protectionist / statist economic policy and the outright nasty social ones - the 'let's get out of the Euro' policy is her only saving grace. But...the French political elite and establishment are ossified beyond belief. They badly need some sort of nuclear explosion to blow away their fusty old worldview and kick 'em in the nuts. This she would deliver in spades.

Vote Fascist! says Patrick.

Moral bankruptcy of the left, let's have more of the same failed policies of the past 50 years.

Le Pen President and Scotland independent, it's the dream.

Did you also like Le Pen's father?

Yes, more of a Poujadist than his daughter. I am a fan of both though as I am the French, they are very French rightists.

Do you think he was right when he said the French national football team had too many non-white players? What about when he said Sarkozy was a "foreigner" because he was of immigrant background?

Do you think there are too many French players on the French football team? Why do you think it is a moral imperative for there to be even less than there are already. Why is it unacceptable to you for the French to stand up for their own interests?

I like the French, I wish to see them continue to exist as a distinct people. Why don't you?

I wasn't talking about the nationality of the players. I was talking about their race. Or are you meaning "white French for many generations" when you say "French"?

Neil

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Speak for yourself - I'll still be a citizen of the Republic of Ireland

Toms

Don't panic! Don't panic! Stay calm everybody.*
* He lies.

isam

On topic

As someone who worked in Spread Betting for more than a decade, if people want markets to be open for betting more often they'd be better off not picking the bookie off as soon as a poll comes out

Not casting aspersions personally, I couldn't care less, but I can assure you that is the reason why these markets aren't always available

Neil

SeanT said:

At least we won't have to get our budgets passed by the Germans, first, as happens in Ireland.

The beginning of the end for Ireland happened when the Germans got their way over the level of corporation tax. Oh.

Socrates

@edmundintokyo

You posted a link about Eric Harroun on the previous page. That was clearly a piece of apologism for him, that he accidentally fell in with al-Nusra. Here are some quotes from him

"Getting into Al-Nusra is not rocket science," he said. "It just takes balls and brains.”

“The only good Zionist is a dead Zionist.”

"Maybe Gaza is next for me, maybe [the] West Bank"

Doesn't seem like quite the innocent who didn't realise who he was fighting with, does he?

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Speak for yourself - I'll still be a citizen of the Republic of Ireland

We will all, still, be citizens of Das German Empire, sorry, European Union. How nice for us.

At least we won't have to get our budgets passed by the Germans, first, as happens in Ireland.

Shouldn't that be Die German Empire, not Das

Sean_F

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

JonnyJimmy

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Neil

SeanT said:

Neil said:

SeanT said:

At least we won't have to get our budgets passed by the Germans, first, as happens in Ireland.

The beginning of the end for Ireland happened when the Germans got their way over the level of corporation tax. Oh.

Probably because half the Irish are already in Germany, or the UK (like you), as one person leaves the country every thirteen minutes.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-emigration-one-person-left-4111624

You make travelling the world sound like a bad thing.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Speak for yourself - I'll still be a citizen of the Republic of Ireland

Can I become a Citizen of the Irish Republic? Is it easy? I think I'd fit right in.

MikeK

Farage and Murdoch meet:
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/05/EXCLUSIVE-Farage-and-Murdoch-in-private-meeting-in-New-York-City/

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

Well done, SPIN.

Turnout is a buy.

The IndyRef market is a good way of hedging your bets,

I agree.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Speak for yourself - I'll still be a citizen of the Republic of Ireland

Can I become a Citizen of the Irish Republic? Is it easy? I think I'd fit right in.

There are a number of options open to you.

Rob1909

The closing of the gap in the polls is so predictable.
I still maintain it will be 60/40 for No.
I'd vote Yes If I were a Scot living in Scotland and I will vote to leave the EU if I'm ever given the opportunity.

Neil

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

OldKingCole

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

Temporarily of course it could well be Clegg. The first Lib PM since Lloyd George!

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting tweets from the pollsters

Survation ‏@Survation 7h

Our next #indyref poll will be for @Daily_Record @Fivemillionqs (Dundee University) & @NationBetter on Sept 11th for all those asking..

Chaminda Jayanetti ‏@1000cuts 7h

@Survation @Daily_Record @Fivemillionqs @NationBetter If only Panelbase had the same transparency...

PanelbaseMD

‏@PanelbaseMD

@1000cuts @Survation @Daily_Record @Fivemillionqs @NationBetter We're transparent when we can be but clients have rights to confidentiality.

TheScreamingEagles

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

Monksfield

I now think Sindy will be the worst of all results. No by a hair's breadth, 52 to 48 or something.

logical_song

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

The returning officer may think that the voter had made his/her intention clear. Also there is an 'X' in the box. It would be put in the 'disputed' pile but may well be accepted.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

Speak for yourself - I'll still be a citizen of the Republic of Ireland

Can I become a Citizen of the Irish Republic? Is it easy? I think I'd fit right in.

There are a number of options open to you.

Superb

Pulpstar

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

That sounds moderately encouraging.

Neil

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

The Nats will be insufferable after YES, and I hereby suggest we introduce a temporary 18 month ban on their being allowed to post on pb, following their victory.

The most insufferable Nats have already been banned. For being insufferable. Or being Nats. I cant remember which.

Socrates

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

dugarbandier

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

chortling gleefully. at the very least. a big fan of the adverbs

TheScreamingEagles

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

Devastating? You've never met Neil have you?

(Only joking Neil)

Scott_P

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

OldKingCole

Monksfield said:

I now think Sindy will be the worst of all results. No by a hair's breadth, 52 to 48 or something.

The issue seems to have gone quiet in Quebec, though, after a very close result 19 years ago.

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

Big swing to no then. Panelbase are the darlings of YES.

rcs1000

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

The numbers were just as bad in the early 1980s. As the economy recovered people moved back from the UK.

Ireland is currently the only country in Europe outgrowing the UK.

It is also the only country in Europe where the PMIs and Employment Optimism numbers are better than the UK.

MikeK

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

It will certainly be a cathartic moment if YES is triumphant and would UKIP be able to keep it's name?

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

Devastating? You've never met Neil have you?

(Only joking Neil)

I'm touched that you think I fall into that age category!

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

Stick to rubbing out the X you disagree with.

Actually the serial numbers on the Ballot papers are occasionally cited by the paranoid to assert that the ballot isn't in fact secret. How you voted can be determined by MI5. Or the Orange Order. Or whoever.

Sean_F

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

Big swing to no then. Panelbase are the darlings of YES.

Maybe not a swing to No, but presumably no swing to Yes.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

Devastating? You've never met Neil have you?

(Only joking Neil)

I'm touched that you think I fall into that age category!

You look good for your age

MaxPB

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

According to that fb thread the guy ordered a new ballot paper. Vote early, vote often?

CarlottaVance

Neil said:

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

The Nats will be insufferable after YES, and I hereby suggest we introduce a temporary 18 month ban on their being allowed to post on pb, following their victory.

The most insufferable Nats have already been banned. For being insufferable. Or being Nats. I cant remember which.

It was a kindness - they're much happier talking to themselves, reassuring each other how clever they are.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

Big swing to no then. Panelbase are the darlings of YES.

I wouldn't go that far. Probably a small swing to no, which doesn't fit the narrative for Yes.

Or it could be, I'm just reading too much into Panelbase's tweet.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

Devastating? You've never met Neil have you?

(Only joking Neil)

I'm touched that you think I fall into that age category!

You look good for your age

The paining in the attic is looking a bit off though.

CarlottaVance

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

That sounds moderately encouraging.

Unless it's a good poll for them and they want to time the release for maximum impact.

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

Stick to rubbing out the X you disagree with.

Actually the serial numbers on the Ballot papers are occasionally cited by the paranoid to assert that the ballot isn't in fact secret. How you voted can be determined by MI5. Or the Orange Order. Or whoever.

Don't forget the Bilderberg Lizards.

TheWatcher

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

Stick to rubbing out the X you disagree with.

Actually the serial numbers on the Ballot papers are occasionally cited by the paranoid to assert that the ballot isn't in fact secret. How you voted can be determined by MI5

Lose the Register. Isn't that how it works in Scotland?

CarlottaVance

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

Devastating? You've never met Neil have you?

(Only joking Neil)

I'm touched that you think I fall into that age category!

You look good for your age

The paining in the attic is looking a bit off though.

Dorian Grey's was actually in the School Room. It was Mrs Rochester who was in the attic...

Socrates

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

165,000 15-24 year olds have moved out of Ireland in the last five years? There's only about 4.5 million people in Ireland. That age group must be about, what, an eighth of their population? That's about half a million. So about 30% of Irish youths have left? And probably the more talented ones too.

That will be devastating for them long term.

The numbers were just as bad in the early 1980s. As the economy recovered people moved back from the UK.

Ireland is currently the only country in Europe outgrowing the UK.

It is also the only country in Europe where the PMIs and Employment Optimism numbers are better than the UK.

It's pretty easy to grow quickly when you're still climbing back from a 20% drop in GDP. You're just going back to where you were before.

malcolmg

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

I will be showing on a screen near you soon

malcolmg

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

What a sick individual you must be , an odious creepy sad little nonentity

Sean_F

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

What a sick individual you must be , an odious creepy sad little nonentity

I knew you wouldn't disappoint.

[Deleted User]

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

It will certainly be a cathartic moment if YES is triumphant and would UKIP be able to keep it's name?

We are the UK and if Scotland is leaving we will, I suppose, still be the UK. Maybe 'the UK of England, Wales and NI'. Much easier just to leave well alone.

(p.s. my own view on what to do with the flag is to recognise Wales by turning the blue bits of the Union Jack green - thus giving a red, white and green flag as a nod to Wales. Dark green. British Racing Green. Jaguar green. Would look awesome and retain all the iconic design elements of our current flag.)

malcolmg

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

That was no YES voter , a sad individual needing medical help.

malcolmg

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

The Nats will be insufferable after YES, and I hereby suggest we introduce a temporary 18 month ban on their being allowed to post on pb, following their victory.

We can then allow them back in, as the Scottish economy collapses into chaos, as credit agencies downgrade their tartan bonds to junk and they are forced into the Dong Zone as they unilaterally adopt the currency of Vietnam.

You boys are beginning to realise it is going to happen

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

The Nats will be insufferable after YES, and I hereby suggest we introduce a temporary 18 month ban on their being allowed to post on pb, following their victory.

We can then allow them back in, as the Scottish economy collapses into chaos, as credit agencies downgrade their tartan bonds to junk and they are forced into the Dong Zone as they unilaterally adopt the currency of Vietnam.

You boys are beginning to realise it is going to happen

Byeeeeee.

Socrates

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

Fantastic news. Will they stick to it?

malcolmg

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

That sounds moderately encouraging.

Why

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

Stick to rubbing out the X you disagree with.

Actually the serial numbers on the Ballot papers are occasionally cited by the paranoid to assert that the ballot isn't in fact secret. How you voted can be determined by MI5. Or the Orange Order. Or whoever.

Don't forget the Bilderberg Lizards.

Shhhhh

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

Quick question - what is to stop postal ballots being photocopied ?

Nothing, but they have serial numbers on them, and when they are returned, they'll be matched up to the electoral register.

So there's no point trying to photocopy them if you want to send in mass photocopied ballot papers.

Plus you have to put them inside a sealed envelope with your signature , DOB , etc on it

Socrates

I'd rather David Cameron did this challenge than the ice bucket one:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/burn-isis-flag-challenge-goes-viral-arab-world-124824439.html#0EVKwhL

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

Stuart_Dickson

Absolutely fantastic to see the return of Sporting Index.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I take that Panelbase tweet to read they have done a poll on the indyref, but the client wants it to remain private.

Big swing to no then. Panelbase are the darlings of YES.

I wouldn't go that far. Probably a small swing to no, which doesn't fit the narrative for Yes.

Or it could be, I'm just reading too much into Panelbase's tweet.

verbal diahorrea on here as ever, could just be as panelbase say , they actually respect their clients.

Scott_P

malcolmg said:

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

How many planes will President Eck have on his flagship, the Vital Spark?

Socrates

What's to stop aggressive Braveheart types demanding their wives show them their ballot paper with a Yes vote, lest they get a backhand to the face?

(Or the reverse for that matter.)

JonnyJimmy

malcolmg said:

I will be showing on a screen near you soon

I don't have to watch you, do I?

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

It won't be your concern in a few weeks, 'Yes' or 'No'.

Socrates

Will an SNP govt of iScotland increase spending to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO commitments?

malcolmg

Patrick said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

It will certainly be a cathartic moment if YES is triumphant and would UKIP be able to keep it's name?

We are the UK and if Scotland is leaving we will, I suppose, still be the UK. Maybe 'the UK of England, Wales and NI'. Much easier just to leave well alone.

(p.s. my own view on what to do with the flag is to recognise Wales by turning the blue bits of the Union Jack green - thus giving a red, white and green flag as a nod to Wales. Dark green. British Racing Green. Jaguar green. Would look awesome and retain all the iconic design elements of our current flag.)

Patrick , hard to kid anyone that Wales or a small corner of Ireland are kingdoms.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

Imagine Mick Pork chortling away. Forever.

The Nats will be insufferable after YES, and I hereby suggest we introduce a temporary 18 month ban on their being allowed to post on pb, following their victory.

We can then allow them back in, as the Scottish economy collapses into chaos, as credit agencies downgrade their tartan bonds to junk and they are forced into the Dong Zone as they unilaterally adopt the currency of Vietnam.

You boys are beginning to realise it is going to happen

Byeeeeee.

What will you do when the Tories stop your JSA.

TheWatcher

Socrates said:

Will an SNP govt of iScotland increase spending to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO commitments?

I doubt they can afford current spending.

OldKingCole

Socrates said:

What's to stop aggressive Braveheart types demanding their wives show them their ballot paper with a Yes vote, lest they get a backhand to the face?

(Or the reverse for that matter.)

Or heads of large families filling in all ......... no, no don't go there!

malcolmg

Socrates said:

What's to stop aggressive Braveheart types demanding their wives show them their ballot paper with a Yes vote, lest they get a backhand to the face?

(Or the reverse for that matter.)

You are not right in the head

Socrates

UNITE demands Labour holds an EU referendum:

http://centrallobby.politicshome.com/members/member-press/member-press-details/newsarticle/unite-urges-labour-party-to-hold-eu-referendum///sites/unite/

“But the next general election will be different. Both UKIP and the Tories will be offering a referendum on the issue of Britain's membership.

“And as things stand, Labour won't – because ducking this question is seen as part of Labour's commitment to business."

JonnyJimmy

malcolmg said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

That was no YES voter , a sad individual needing medical help.

According to the commenters on the thread (all Ayes) he is, and he's ordered a new ballot paper. He might also be a sad individual needing medical help. I doubt the two are mutually exclusive

malcolmg

Socrates said:

I'd rather David Cameron did this challenge than the ice bucket one:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/burn-isis-flag-challenge-goes-viral-arab-world-124824439.html#0EVKwhL

He dodged that as well

PeterC

Whether Cameron decided to resign after YES would be purely a matter of how he felt personally. It's quite possible he would resign as 'matter of honour'; I have no reading of his inner state of mind so I don't know.

If he did not resign the suicide brigade among Tory MPs would doubtless muster a sufficient number to trigger a confidence vote of the whole parliamentary party, a vote which Cameron I expect would win handily. In fact I expect that he would submit himself voluntarily to such a vote. Resignation would solve absolutely nothing because everyone would be to blame yet no one would be to blame.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

How many planes will President Eck have on his flagship, the Vital Spark?

Sad sack Scott, Alex is a real man he does not need to do any willy waving to prove it. It is people like you with issues that have to prove themselves. Grow a pair.

malcolmg

JonnyJimmy said:

malcolmg said:

I will be showing on a screen near you soon

I don't have to watch you, do I?

It maybe compulsory, though I would not want creepy Watcher watching me.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

It won't be your concern in a few weeks, 'Yes' or 'No'.

LOL, second one will be built in an independent Scotland you turnip.

Plato

malcolm's never been up to his previous high standards, since I popped back.

I think the *g* is a sign, nothing beats a *G* to hit the spot

Perhaps it's too much Viagra in his sporran ;^)

Sean_F said:

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

This weekend is going to be huge for indyref. Perhaps the crucial weekend of the campaign - maybe the most crucial weekend in 300 years of British constitutional history - until the vote itself.

As I understand it, we are expecting two polls - ICM and YouGov? If they show continued momentum to YES then I think YES will go on to win.

If they show that the debate bounce has faded for Salmond, then I would expect NO to edge it, in the end.

*squeaky bum cliche thing*

A fortnight from now, we may all be Stateless.

I don't think 10% of people even on pb have begun to comprehend what Partition will mean. The inevitably-messy divorce will dominate - tediously, endlessly, relentlessly - all our discussions for the rest of the decade. Imagine malcolmg shouting in your face for what-feels-like eternity. That is the reality of YES.

And our children will grow up in a different country, north or south. A divided island.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine Malcolmg's boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

What a sick individual you must be , an odious creepy sad little nonentity

I knew you wouldn't disappoint.

malcolmg

JonnyJimmy said:

malcolmg said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Yes voter spoils his ballot paper to make a Braveheart point https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204805424161817&set=a.1752466337852.101619.1424714684&type=1

That was no YES voter , a sad individual needing medical help.

According to the commenters on the thread (all Ayes) he is, and he's ordered a new ballot paper. He might also be a sad individual needing medical help. I doubt the two are mutually exclusive

At best a silly billy ( not the Orange type )

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

JonnyJimmy said:

malcolmg said:

I will be showing on a screen near you soon

I don't have to watch you, do I?

It maybe compulsory, though I would not want creepy Watcher watching me.

Sorry. Dogging's not my thing.

Charles

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

Hague would stand in - no way it would be Clegg - and given he is retiring you could do a quick primary (assuming Cameron doesn't stay on). Not sure the interim would count - didn't people get tripped up with Beckett as leader of the Labour Party?

Socrates

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

It will certainly be a cathartic moment if YES is triumphant and would UKIP be able to keep it's name?

We are the UK and if Scotland is leaving we will, I suppose, still be the UK. Maybe 'the UK of England, Wales and NI'. Much easier just to leave well alone.

(p.s. my own view on what to do with the flag is to recognise Wales by turning the blue bits of the Union Jack green - thus giving a red, white and green flag as a nod to Wales. Dark green. British Racing Green. Jaguar green. Would look awesome and retain all the iconic design elements of our current flag.)

Patrick , hard to kid anyone that Wales or a small corner of Ireland are kingdoms.

No-one would be claiming they are kingdoms. Scotland and England aren't kingdoms either. There is one, united kingdom.

BenM

Stewart Wood‏@StewartWood
The Conservative Party's recovery in the polls now in overdrive:
29/11/12: 32%
19/06/13: 32%
17/01/14: 32%
04/04/14: 32%
Today: 32%
@YouGov

Heh.

Wulfrun_Phil

The troll is back.

Might the PB Moderator step in a bit earlier this time, before it gets really nasty?

JonnyJimmy

I heard Gordon Brown on Radio 5 earlier, telling the Scots why they should vote No.

So convincing do I find him, that I am now firmly in the Yes camp.

Go on Malc, tell these big Jessies the truth!

HurstLlama

Socrates said:

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

Fantastic news. Will they stick to it?

No. The 2% spend has been a NATO agreement for years and only four countries, including the UK, have stuck to it. Note too the date, the agreement is that they will spend 2% of GDP p.a. by 2024. This is just more meaningless guff, promise to do something in ten years time which they have already promised, and failed, to do.

Note too that the UK will probably comply with the agreement next year when the next set of Treasury imposed defence cuts, sorry I mean the next Strategic Defence Review, take place. The UK current spends about 2.4% on defence so this new pledge provides lots of nice political cover for more cuts.

By the way, looking at the afternoon papers, its seems we are gearing up to go to war in Iraq again.

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

and no planes on the carriers, they will be very useful.

How many planes will President Eck have on his flagship, the Vital Spark?

One Presidential Learjet with all the trimmings.

BTW You've named the vessel incorrectly - it should be the 'Taj Mahal', with a sister ship 'Spice Island'.

malcolmg

Wulfrun_Phil said:

The troll is back.

Might the PB Moderator step in a bit earlier this time, before it gets really nasty?

Whinging jessie , whinges , Yawn

malcolmg

Socrates said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

It will certainly be a cathartic moment if YES is triumphant and would UKIP be able to keep it's name?

We are the UK and if Scotland is leaving we will, I suppose, still be the UK. Maybe 'the UK of England, Wales and NI'. Much easier just to leave well alone.

(p.s. my own view on what to do with the flag is to recognise Wales by turning the blue bits of the Union Jack green - thus giving a red, white and green flag as a nod to Wales. Dark green. British Racing Green. Jaguar green. Would look awesome and retain all the iconic design elements of our current flag.)

Patrick , hard to kid anyone that Wales or a small corner of Ireland are kingdoms.

No-one would be claiming they are kingdoms. Scotland and England aren't kingdoms either. There is one, united kingdom.

Soon there will not be

perdix

HurstLlama said:

Socrates said:

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

Fantastic news. Will they stick to it?

No. The 2% spend has been a NATO agreement for years and only four countries, including the UK, have stuck to it. Note too the date, the agreement is that they will spend 2% of GDP p.a. by 2024. This is just more meaningless guff, promise to do something in ten years time which they have already promised, and failed, to do.

Note too that the UK will probably comply with the agreement next year when the next set of Treasury imposed defence cuts, sorry I mean the next Strategic Defence Review, take place. The UK current spends about 2.4% on defence so this new pledge provides lots of nice political cover for more cuts.

By the way, looking at the afternoon papers, its seems we are gearing up to go to war in Iraq again.

With UK GDP rising more quickly than expected the ratio of spend to GDP is likely to appear to reduce.

Charles

BenM said:

Stewart Wood‏@StewartWood
The Conservative Party's recovery in the polls now in overdrive:
29/11/12: 32%
19/06/13: 32%
17/01/14: 32%
04/04/14: 32%
Today: 32%
@YouGov

Heh.

Random dates that support an argument convince you? No wonder your views on the economy are dodgy!

Socrates

Charles said:

SeanT said:

Telegraph contemplating Cameron's retirement after YES, yet denying it could happen (stupidly)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285383/a-tory-plot-to-remove-cameron-in-the-event-of-scottish-independence-would-be-deeply-stupid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Look at the names mentioned as replacements, and remember what I told you about the odds on their being next PM: Osborne 25/1, Hague, 50/1.

Hague would stand in - no way it would be Clegg - and given he is retiring you could do a quick primary (assuming Cameron doesn't stay on). Not sure the interim would count - didn't people get tripped up with Beckett as leader of the Labour Party?

The second most senior position in the government is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, then the Foreign Secretary, so more likely to be Osborne or Hammond than Hague.

Socrates

HurstLlama said:

Socrates said:

Scott_P said:

@MarkUrban01: Nato members just agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024. For the UK that will actually mean a substantial increase to def budget

@AliBunkallSKY: 2nd UK Aircraft Carrier, Prince of Wales, WILL come into service with the Royal Navy, David Cameron announces

Enlarged Royal Navy and British Army, with no Scots...?

Fantastic news. Will they stick to it?

No. The 2% spend has been a NATO agreement for years and only four countries, including the UK, have stuck to it. Note too the date, the agreement is that they will spend 2% of GDP p.a. by 2024. This is just more meaningless guff, promise to do something in ten years time which they have already promised, and failed, to do.

Note too that the UK will probably comply with the agreement next year when the next set of Treasury imposed defence cuts, sorry I mean the next Strategic Defence Review, take place. The UK current spends about 2.4% on defence so this new pledge provides lots of nice political cover for more cuts.

By the way, looking at the afternoon papers, its seems we are gearing up to go to war in Iraq again.

Russia wasn't invading other countries over the last decade.