Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead
Clacton poll by @LordAshcroft has
UKIP 56% (+56%) Con 24% (-29%) Lab 16% (-9.1%) LD 2% (-10.9%) Others 2% (-75)
Changes since the 2010 GE
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
@Scrapheap
UKIP nailed on to win Clacton at the by-election and, I should think, at the GE.
Last price matched on Betfair [UKIP No Seats market] was 6.6. Anything under 10 would be a bit of a gift, imo, even allowing for the 7 month wait to collect.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/02/Labour-slammed-for-leafleting-before-funeral/
Should give pause for thought both to Labour people complacently thinking UKIP aren't a threat, but also to Tories who think all Ukippers are "Tories in exile" who will flock back at the thought of putting Ed into Downing St.
So, will the Conservatives lose by an absolutely bloody enormous margin, or by a staggeringly colossal margin? Tough call.
Not unlike the forthcoming F1 race at Monza. Read my concise but riveting (as you would expect) thoughts, and the surprising number* of bets I've made early here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/italy-early-thoughts.html
*If you dislike surprises the number is 3.
We heard UKIP couldn't win a Westminster seat. Pending.
Scotland votes yes, capital flight, bank bailout again all during the Clacton campaign.
Remember the second Brown bounce during the banking crisis.
Bbc radio five live can't think why
Shaun Ormanroyd (@Orman1986)
02/09/2014 15:08
Why are Indian fans booing Moeen Ali? #EngvInd
I thought it might be because Mooen is of Pakistani descent?
Then again, Isa the female cricketer/commentator was speaking the other day of the abuse she got for supporting England over India
You should be pretty safe.
Apart from anything else, the Ashcroft poll confirms that much of Carswell's support is personal.
He was accused of being the first rat to join a sinking ship.
But I'll look into it.
Has this ever happened before ?
02/09/2014 15:14
I was told last week that if polls show Tories can't win Clacton they will save their cash. Tricky balancing act for Grant Shapps now
He hasn't turned his back on India to play for England, his family aren't from. India. He hasn't done anything to upset indian fans on the field like Anderson
The internal effect on Ukip is likely to put Farage's nose out of joint for knocking him off top spot and cause further internal division in Ukip over his pro-immigration stance.I noticed Carswell's stature is greater than Farage so Ukip could have found a new leadership contender.Farage will have to watch his back.
Thus he shouldn't be allowed to play for England and England are cheating.
But nice?
Ukip lead in @LordAshcroft Clacton poll was 36% before reallocation of don't knows which favours Tories
You'll be delighted to know I've got two electoral reform threads in the pipeline.
1) We're playing Australia, and it is mandatory to boo the Convicts
2) We're playing France and it it is mandatory to boo the fromage alimentaires singes capitulards
3) England have played shite, and I feel it is necessary to boo the bell ends who are paid 300k a week and can't trap a bag of cement.
4) Manchester United, self explanatory
5) Chelsea, self explanatory
PeterC said:
So what would be the context in which a referendum in the next parliament could be thought "fair"? And why as things stand would it be "unfair"?
My reply.
As I have made clear many times my main concern is the time available to get anything in place that cannot be undone immediately after a vote to stay in. As it stands Cameron has given himself 2 years to get a deal done that he will then recommend to the public. Anyone who knows anything about the EU and the way it works - including Cameron - knows that this is simply not possible.
The only way he would be able to get anything enforceable that we could trust would not be unraveled straight away would be if it was in the form of a new treaty. Something that will be signed sealed and - most importantly - ratified by all the member states before the referendum. We would then be able to judge whatever he presented in the knowledge it could not easily be undone.
Now the daft thing is that if Cameron said that he was going to hold his referendum towards the end of the next Parliament in say late 2019 and he had started the serious work of renegotiation already, making clear what he expected to see in terms of the return of powers to the UK, then he might have a chance of convincing us he was being honest. It is unlikely he would be able to convince people like me that we should stay in given that I am damn sure future governments would do their best to unravel whatever had been agreed but at least we would have some idea that he himself was playing things straight as far as proper meaningful negotiations were concerned.
As it is, by making sure there is not enough time for a new treaty to be ratified he has already made it clear that he has no intention of securing any binding changes to the EU and our relationship with it. It is obvious that he intends to do exactly as Carswell claimed - get just enough apparent concessions to get a Yes vote and then happily watch it all unravel afterwards with us no better off than we are now.
Worry about it when they wave their programmes like order papers.
esp when he's on the gear
My mate spoke to chambers at a dinner do, and he said every single athlete is at it. if they weren't, they wouldn't get close to competing
Would have stayed in town if we'd won. Would have had a good reason as well ;-)
Gosh, this is turning into a thread about booing!
Edit: I didnt remember correctly - they were in different semis
Organized Party chants (football) might be good? an award of an extra question if it is well done?
The election is soon. The policies and bills are in place. The next event is the Autumn statement then the budget and then the election.
You are right though Carswell is in favour of m=immigration, but I guess he will be keeping quiet about that.
Previouisly he said
'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.'
He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'.
Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.
Lets remember that the EU migrants are broadly transitory unlike the great influx of permanant immigrants to Australia that Carswell is in favour of. But Carswsell if we are to believe what he has said is not for 'Britain First' - he wants to encourage defence contracts to be placed abroad.
It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?
Shikhar Dhawan treating Anderson like a pie thrower
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29031397
The government is considering carrying out an inspection of Rotherham Council in the wake of the child abuse scandal, Home Secretary Theresa May has said.
Speaking in the House of Commons, Mrs May said Mr Pickles shared her concerns of "inadequate scrutiny by councillors, institutionalised political correctness and covering-up of information and the failure to take action against gross misconduct" in Rotherham
I did sarcastically cheer and applaud when the announcer announced Jade was about to bowl.
I wasn't the only one.
Paddy Power Offers @PPOffers 15s
Right then, here we go, Danny Welbeck to outscore Falcao this season, 4/1!
http://pdy.pr/xPXczm #PowerPlay
Could be some tactical voting for UKIP to give the Cons a bloody nose but doesn't bode particularly well for Ed
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1274954/UK-ELECTION-RESULTS-2010-Did-UKIP-cost-Tories-seats-fielding-candidates-constituencies-Conservatives-set-win.html
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/05/did-ukip-cost-the-tories-a-commons-majority.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/katemaltby/100284781/tory-morale-has-collapsed-again/
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
When was the last time the Lib Dems, Cons, Labour ALL lost vote share at an election ?
Scotland sometime ?