If UKIP could, say, get Farage, James and Carswell all elected next year that might be quite an impressive mini front bench. It could make quite a difference to debate in the Commons.
I'm less sure about Victoria Ayling. Also Neil Hamilton should hang up his coat; he's a has-been with far too much history.
Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?
Unless the Lib Dems hold onto far more seats than expected, or UKIP (or the SNP) get much more than expected, a majority government is extremely likely even if the Tories and Labour are very close together.
Without a strong third party, there will only be a small band of possible outcomes that would lead to a hung parliament before the pendulum flips straight from Labour majority to Tory majority (or vice versa).
... He knows enough about HoC procedure to place roadblocks across much of the Tory agenda,....
??? The election is soon. The policies and bills are in place. The next event is the Autumn statement then the budget and then the election. You are right though Carswell is in favour of m=immigration, but I guess he will be keeping quiet about that. Previouisly he said 'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.' He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'. Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.
Lets remember that the EU migrants are broadly transitory unlike the great influx of permanant immigrants to Australia that Carswell is in favour of. But Carswsell if we are to believe what he has said is not for 'Britain First' - he wants to encourage defence contracts to be placed abroad.
It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?
Of course both Switzerland and Australia have strict controls on who comes into the country unlike the UK which has an open door policy to the whole of the EU. Migration is good but controls are necessary at all levels to ensure it properly benefits both the migrants and the new host country. Many countries have realised this including both those you and Carswell mention.
I wouldn't be too sure about that. Geneva looks just like London in microcosm. Full of prostitutes and drug dealers in some places and you wouldn't want to walk the streets at night in those areas.
The Swiss have their own 'Rotherham' issues with the E Europeans in German Switzerland, asylum seekers, of which the Swiss take a lot.
Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.
Shaun Ormanroyd (@Orman1986) 02/09/2014 15:08 Why are Indian fans booing Moeen Ali? #EngvInd
Same reason they booed Nasser Hussain and Ravi Bopara.
Cos they're from Essex???
I thought it might be because Mooen is of Pakistani descent?
Then again, Isa the female cricketer/commentator was speaking the other day of the abuse she got for supporting England over India
Just like Martin McCague received for choosing England over Australia.
He was accused of being the first rat to join a sinking ship.
Moeen was born in Birmingham, has played for Warwickshire and Worcestershire, as far as I know he doesn't have the residential qualification to play for Pakistan even if he wanted to.
It's a bit like England fans booing Stuart Binny for playing for India.
I'd be down a similar amount as things stand, but I'm not inclined to hedge at current prices. DC has some seriously tricky waters to navigate before we even get into election year.
I'd be down a similar amount as things stand, but I'm not inclined to hedge at current prices. DC has some seriously tricky waters to navigate before we even get into election year.
I'm sort of hedged a bit on constituencies, but they could come in without a Con majority - given the Tories hold alot of the ones I've bet on !
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.
Yes, but I don't think he wants to anymore. That flame has gone out.
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
It's about a 10% "swing to Labour" in Clacton. Doesn't make a whole lot of difference to the forecast of circa a 1% Labour lead in 2015. A small Tory lead would still be within the confidence limits of the model...
Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.
It is far from inevitable that poorly placed parties collapse at by-elections. That characteristic seems to belong purely to the Lib Dems these days.
Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:
Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.
Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.
Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points
Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points
Careful, you're comparing apples and oranges there. The five polls after the defection are: 2xYouGov, ComRes, Populus and Opinium, while the five before were 3xYouGov and 2xPopulus.
Your average could simply be picking up that ComRes and Opinium find higher shares for UKIP than Populus and YouGov.
Comparing like-with-like: 2 YouGov polls after defection = UKIP 15% 2 YouGov polls before defection = UKIP 13.5% ComRes = 17% (-1) Populus = 15% (+2) Opinium = 16% (-5)
Average that all together and UKIP are down by an average of 0.2% - not much effect just as NP said.
Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.
It is far from inevitable that poorly placed parties collapse at by-elections. That characteristic seems to belong purely to the Lib Dems these days.
Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:
Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.
Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.
Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points
Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points
UKIP is now the recipient of the "none of the above, I want a new form of politics" vote.
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.
I don't know about that. Thirty-six can be funny age the start of the end of youth, that big 40 birthday is now firmly in sight and yet one seems to have achieved so little of what one set out to do. It can be a time to rush when there aren't enough hours in a day and time spent in a job one isn't enjoying or at least that takes you forward is massively wasted. Its all bollocks of course but you don't realise that until you get to sixty.
There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.
Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.
IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Another post that shows why we need the like button back.
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.
I don't know about that. Thirty-six can be funny age the start of the end of youth, that big 40 birthday is now firmly in sight and yet one seems to have achieved so little of what one set out to do. It can be a time to rush when there aren't enough hours in a day and time spent in a job one isn't enjoying or at least that takes you forward is massively wasted. Its all bollocks of course but you don't realise that until you get to sixty.
There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.
Shit ! I'm 33 >< - 3 years till the end is nigh...
"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."
I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.
I don't know about that. Thirty-six can be funny age the start of the end of youth, that big 40 birthday is now firmly in sight and yet one seems to have achieved so little of what one set out to do. It can be a time to rush when there aren't enough hours in a day and time spent in a job one isn't enjoying or at least that takes you forward is massively wasted. Its all bollocks of course but you don't realise that until you get to sixty.
There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.
Shit ! I'm 33 >< - 3 years till the end is nigh...
Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.
It is far from inevitable that poorly placed parties collapse at by-elections. That characteristic seems to belong purely to the Lib Dems these days.
Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:
Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.
Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.
Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points
Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points
UKIP is now the recipient of the "none of the above, I want a new form of politics" vote.
Don't expect them to be at all bitter and disillusioned with the "new form of politics" which Ed Miliband introduces.... More immigration, much closer ties to Brussels, an economy again on the slide.... Very new.
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Another post that shows why we need the like button back.
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Another post that shows why we need the like button back.
... He knows enough about HoC procedure to place roadblocks across much of the Tory agenda,....
Previouisly he said 'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.' He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'. Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.
Lets remember that the EU migrants are broadly transitory unlike the great influx of permanant immigrants to Australia that Carswell is in favour of. But Carswsell if we are to believe what he has said is not for 'Britain First' - he wants to encourage defence contracts to be placed abroad.
It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?
Of course both Switzerland and Australia have strict controls on who comes into the country unlike the UK which has an open door policy to the whole of the EU. Migration is good but controls are necessary at all levels to ensure it properly benefits both the migrants and the new host country. Many countries have realised this including both those you and Carswell mention.
Canada has 250,000 a year net migration. Australia net overseas migration is nearly 250,000. The point is that even with what you call controls they have as much net migration as we do and are smaller populations to start with. Pretending Farage is going to do any different is bogus. Any so called trade deal will include movement of labour. Carswell praises Switzerland which has 25% immigrant population. Carswell has said immigration will continue if we leave the EU and regards pakistanis in the UK as British which is more than you do. Australia Canada Switzerland and Norway have higher net migration rates than we do.
EU immigrants are transitory and will return as their own countries grow. Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out. Kippers give 3 cheers for Carswell but he fundamentally disagrees with the foreigner hating kipper. Kippers like totalitarian Putin. Carswell wants plebicites on everything and localism which the lefty intelligencia/ trade unions will monopolise. Certainly no guarantee that the kipper tendency views will get a look in.
Oh - did you hear what i said there? 'trade unions'. Where are they, where are their loud mouths. Nowhere to be heard. Very clever. Sometimes i wish right wingers had the half the brains of yer typical trade unionist.
Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.
IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".
I would bet on 'Yes'. I have been a one man propaganda band against the EU here for more than twenty years.
I'm winning! No one I know would vote for more of what they have had.
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Another post that shows why we need the like button back.
Help us TSE, you're our only hope!
If only I could like that post....
Argh, look at all these meaningless internet likes I am missing out on!
I've just been watching the Home Affairs Select Committee question the South Yorkshire Chief Constable and the BBC over the Cliff Richard investigation and broadcasts. It seems one side is lying, and it's also quite clear which one the committee believes it is.
The South Yorkshire Chief Constable has been recalled next week to talk more about the Rotherham issue. It should be fun.
"I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite."
Were you one of the 'Hang Mandela' crowd or are you too young?
Roger - I've always wanted to ask a Mandela buff why, when Winnie made her keynote "necklace" speech in 1986 advocating the torture and murder of poor blacks, Mandela never breathed a word about it being not such a good idea? And took another 6 years to divorce her?
Not a "hang Mandela" post, I have never believed in the death penalty for unprincipled cowardice.
David Cameron’s Scottish Problem is well-known and has been the subject of much analysis. But if Cameron’s difficulty north of the Tweed and Solway is at least understandable, Ed Miliband’s lack of commitment to the Unionist cause has been disgraceful. You’d hardly know, right now, that Labour are likely to be the largest party in Westminster as soon as next May. There are Labour activists in Scotland who wonder why they seem, as they see it, to have been deserted by Miliband and his cabinet.
IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".
Yes, that is right.
The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.
* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.
Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.
He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Another post that shows why we need the like button back.
Canada has 250,000 a year net migration. Australia net overseas migration is nearly 250,000. The point is that even with what you call controls they have as much net migration as we do and are smaller populations to start with. Pretending Farage is going to do any different is bogus. Any so called trade deal will include movement of labour. Carswell praises Switzerland which has 25% immigrant population. Carswell has said immigration will continue if we leave the EU and regards pakistanis in the UK as British which is more than you do. Australia Canada Switzerland and Norway have higher net migration rates than we do.
EU immigrants are transitory and will return as their own countries grow. Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out. Kippers give 3 cheers for Carswell but he fundamentally disagrees with the foreigner hating kipper. Kippers like totalitarian Putin. Carswell wants plebicites on everything and localism which the lefty intelligencia/ trade unions will monopolise. Certainly no guarantee that the kipper tendency views will get a look in.
Oh - did you hear what i said there? 'trade unions'. Where are they, where are their loud mouths. Nowhere to be heard. Very clever. Sometimes i wish right wingers had the half the brains of yer typical trade unionist.
Utter rubbish. Canada and Australia have high net migration figures because they have chosen to increase their populations. They have the land area to have very large increases in population. But they still do it with strict controls on who can and cannot emigrate there. They choose the people who are coming and make sure they are fulfilling a need in the country.
The UK on the other hand has no control over who enters the country from the EU at all. Indeed, as I have argued on here in the past, because we are in the EU and so have no control over migration from those countries we have the idiotic situation where the Government is placing restrictions on highly qualified migrants from non EU countries - the sorts pf people who could really benefit our economy - along with making life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them
It is membership of the EU which completely warps the whole debate on immigration and results in the sort of idiotic populist and utterly useless immigration policies Cameron has been following for the last 4 years.
Have Labour been disbanded yet over their complicity in groomgate? Oh, no, that's right, nobody is taking them to the cleaners over it. *protect the establishment! keep our skeletons in cupboards*
Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?
Unless the Lib Dems hold onto far more seats than expected, or UKIP (or the SNP) get much more than expected, a majority government is extremely likely even if the Tories and Labour are very close together.
Without a strong third party, there will only be a small band of possible outcomes that would lead to a hung parliament before the pendulum flips straight from Labour majority to Tory majority (or vice versa).
Agreed. I've been saying that for years. The collapse of the Lib Dems makes a hung parliament extremely unlikely. NI is fixed at 18 seats. And unless SNP/PC and/or Greens or UKIP explode in numbers it is statistically highly unlikely that the next parliament will be hung.
... He knows enough about HoC procedure to place roadblocks across much of the Tory agenda,....
Previouisly he said 'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.' He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'. Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.
It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?
Of course both Switzerland and Australia have strict controls on who comes into the country unlike the UK which has an open door policy to the whole of the EU. Migration is good but controls are necessary at all levels to ensure it properly benefits both the migrants and the new host country. Many countries have realised this including both those you and Carswell mention.
Canada has 250,000 a year net migration. Australia net overseas migration is nearly 250,000. The point is that even with what you call controls they have as much net migration as we do and are smaller populations to start with. Pretending Farage is going to do any different is bogus. Any so called trade deal will include movement of labour. Carswell praises Switzerland which has 25% immigrant population. Carswell has said immigration will continue if we leave the EU and regards pakistanis in the UK as British which is more than you do. Australia Canada Switzerland and Norway have higher net migration rates than we do.
EU immigrants are transitory and will return as their own countries grow. Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out. Kippers give 3 cheers for Carswell but he fundamentally disagrees with the foreigner hating kipper. Kippers like totalitarian Putin. Carswell wants plebicites on everything and localism which the lefty intelligencia/ trade unions will monopolise. Certainly no guarantee that the kipper tendency views will get a look in.
Oh - did you hear what i said there? 'trade unions'. Where are they, where are their loud mouths. Nowhere to be heard. Very clever. Sometimes i wish right wingers had the half the brains of yer typical trade unionist.
"Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out."
Where do you get that from? The kippers not Carswell
... He knows enough about HoC procedure to place roadblocks across much of the Tory agenda,....
??? The election is soon. The policies and bills are in place. The next event is the Autumn statement then the budget and then the election. You are right though Carswell is in favour of m=immigration, but I guess he will be keeping quiet about that. Previouisly he said 'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.' He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'. Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.
Lets remember that the EU migrants are broadly transitory unlike the great influx of permanant immigrants to Australia that Carswell is in favour of. But Carswsell if we are to believe what he has said is not for 'Britain First' - he wants to encourage defence contracts to be placed abroad.
It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?
There is an attractive anarchist element in Carswell's thinking but in the end the cult of the individual he represents will mean division flows where ever he goes.Not a team player-for any team.
How is it that 'quotes' get repeated twice sometimes. My typing is terrible and I wish Io could edit.
Agreed. I've been saying that for years. The collapse of the Lib Dems makes a hung parliament extremely unlikely. NI is fixed at 18 seats. And unless SNP/PC and/or Greens or UKIP explode in numbers it is statistically highly unlikely that the next parliament will be hung.
The betting markets disagree. Lick licking time.
It happened in February 1974 of course and it wasn't that far way on a number of other occasions. The key is the Conservative-Labour seat numbers far more than vote shares. It's perfectly conceivable the two big parties could be very close next May at 280-290 each and even with the LDs it might be that neither could form a majority.
That would bring in the Ulster MPs (not all of whom attend of course) and the Nationalists and potentially UKIP/Green.
Some might see this as a crisis which it isn't. I do think a minority Government is much more likely than a Coalition/
The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.
* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.
IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".
Yes, that is right.
The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.
* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.
Yes. The point about a free market is that it gives economies of scale. There is nothing to stop EU companies grown big taking over smaller British ones if we are out of the EU. Carswell has proposed opening up defence contracts to overseas - all overseas. He is not protectionist - hard to see where he opposes the EU really. His bugbear is in fact the way everyone else does politics. He espouses liberalism. If kippers were to ever get their way it would need to be totalitarian to achieve its aims (witness they do not want a referendum). Hardcore unthinking kippers just want isolationism. Despite what Carswell says they want the world to go away.
"Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out."
Where do you get that from? The kippers not Carswell
He made it up. I have come to the conclusion that Flightpath is quite delusional and is getting worse the more he realises just how unpopular his beloved EU really is.
In the end all he can do is make stuff up as he has no reasoned arguments against the Eurosceptics.
The longer the Tories ignore the grooming gangs the more the blame for it will shift from Labour to them so it's odd they've done absolutely nothing about it since the Times first broke the story.
The focus on the cover ups of historical child abuse cases involving VIPs and MPs started soon after the Times reports also.
David Cameron’s Scottish Problem is well-known and has been the subject of much analysis. But if Cameron’s difficulty north of the Tweed and Solway is at least understandable, Ed Miliband’s lack of commitment to the Unionist cause has been disgraceful. You’d hardly know, right now, that Labour are likely to be the largest party in Westminster as soon as next May. There are Labour activists in Scotland who wonder why they seem, as they see it, to have been deserted by Miliband and his cabinet.
Yes and some laughable fools persist in saying Cameron would have to resign if it went YES. Yet its the leader of the opposition who is doing bu##er all. Labour have the vast majority of Scottish seats. Labour gave devolution. Labour lost power to the Nats. Labour are in charge of the campaign. But because Labour and Miliband is useless they say Cameron should resign. Classic example of the gumballs spouting hysteric claptrap.
Yes. The point about a free market is that it gives economies of scale. There is nothing to stop EU companies grown big taking over smaller British ones if we are out of the EU. Carswell has proposed opening up defence contracts to overseas - all overseas. He is not protectionist - hard to see where he opposes the EU really. His bugbear is in fact the way everyone else does politics. He espouses liberalism. If kippers were to ever get their way it would need to be totalitarian to achieve its aims (witness they do not want a referendum). Hardcore unthinking kippers just want isolationism. Despite what Carswell says they want the world to go away.
"life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them "
Has there actually been a drop in the number of overseas students at our universities? The last time I looked I seem to recall there had not been either a undergraduate or post graduate level.
There had certainly been a drop at language schools and schools of management but as an awful lot of that was bogus anyway so it should have (and Labour started the crack down)
Agreed. I've been saying that for years. The collapse of the Lib Dems makes a hung parliament extremely unlikely. NI is fixed at 18 seats. And unless SNP/PC and/or Greens or UKIP explode in numbers it is statistically highly unlikely that the next parliament will be hung.
The betting markets disagree. Lick licking time.
It happened in February 1974 of course and it wasn't that far way on a number of other occasions. The key is the Conservative-Labour seat numbers far more than vote shares. It's perfectly conceivable the two big parties could be very close next May at 280-290 each and even with the LDs it might be that neither could form a majority.
That would bring in the Ulster MPs (not all of whom attend of course) and the Nationalists and potentially UKIP/Green.
Some might see this as a crisis which it isn't. I do think a minority Government is much more likely than a Coalition/
No-one has answered the question I posed a few days back.
Assuming YES, if 2015 produces something like
Lab 300 Con 280 LD 35 Nats 15 UKIP 2 NI 18
we're all in a bind, since 40 of Labour's MPs will represent a de facto foreign country and be on constitutional Death Row...
The rUK result will be something like:-
Con 279 Lab 259 LD 30 Nats 3 UKIP 2 NI 18
Why should Labour be allowed to form a government?
Ishmael. Your post is too asinine to grace with an answer. However I take from it that in your youth were part of it (from wikipedia)
In the 1980s the FCS was noted for being more radical than the main party, more Thatcherite than Thatcher – ministers invited to speak at conferences were routinely chastised for not going far enough.[3]
In addition to supporting no-holds-barred privatisation, controversial positions embraced included the support for American intervention in Grenada, RENAMO, the UNITA rebels in Angola, and the Contras in Nicaragua.[14] "Hang Nelson Mandela" slogans[17] were apparently worn by some leading members.[13] The Federation made badges with the words "Nicaragua Must be Free". Ironically, some Labour students began wearing them without realising their origin and intended meaning.[18]
Some delegates to the Loughborough conference wore T-shirts with the slogan "Morning Cloud, remember the Belgrano". In October 1985 they were accused of physically intimidating Edward Heath.[19]
The satirical magazine Private Eye alleged that members of the FCS at Aberystwyth wore springbok jerseys, racially abused ethnic minority bar staff at the student bar and organised a night out in Aberystwyth town centre to celebrate the anniversary of Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany. Following that incident, all members of the FCS were banned from giving speeches or organising meetings at the institute under the students' union's 'No Platform for Racists or Fascists' policy.[20]
Ishmael. Your post is too asinine to grace with an answer. However I take from it that in your youth were part of it (from wikipedia)
In the 1980s the FCS was noted for being more radical than the main party, more Thatcherite than Thatcher – ministers invited to speak at conferences were routinely chastised for not going far enough.[3]
In addition to supporting no-holds-barred privatisation, controversial positions embraced included the support for American intervention in Grenada, RENAMO, the UNITA rebels in Angola, and the Contras in Nicaragua.[14] "Hang Nelson Mandela" slogans[17] were apparently worn by some leading members.[13] The Federation made badges with the words "Nicaragua Must be Free". Ironically, some Labour students began wearing them without realising their origin and intended meaning.[18]
Some delegates to the Loughborough conference wore T-shirts with the slogan "Morning Cloud, remember the Belgrano". In October 1985 they were accused of physically intimidating Edward Heath.[19]
The satirical magazine Private Eye alleged that members of the FCS at Aberystwyth wore springbok jerseys, racially abused ethnic minority bar staff at the student bar and organised a night out in Aberystwyth town centre to celebrate the anniversary of Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany. Following that incident, all members of the FCS were banned from giving speeches or organising meetings at the institute under the students' union's 'No Platform for Racists or Fascists' policy.[20]
The longer the Tories ignore the grooming gangs the more the blame for it will shift from Labour to them so it's odd they've done absolutely nothing about it since the Times first broke the story.
The focus on the cover ups of historical child abuse cases involving VIPs and MPs started soon after the Times reports also.
I'd be happy with them remaining quiet for a few weeks as long as what they do is both right, and effective. There's been too much sh*t caused by politicians of governing parties speaking out early and making hasty decisions.
If they're keeping silent because of any form of cover-up or lack of care, then they need damning.
But I wonder if the forthcoming conferences might be of relevance.
"... so it's odd they've done absolutely nothing about it since the Times first broke the story." As a matter of interest, what would you want them to do at the moment aside from condemn it?
Agreed. I've been saying that for years. The collapse of the Lib Dems makes a hung parliament extremely unlikely. NI is fixed at 18 seats. And unless SNP/PC and/or Greens or UKIP explode in numbers it is statistically highly unlikely that the next parliament will be hung.
The betting markets disagree. Lick licking time.
It happened in February 1974 of course and it wasn't that far way on a number of other occasions. The key is the Conservative-Labour seat numbers far more than vote shares. It's perfectly conceivable the two big parties could be very close next May at 280-290 each and even with the LDs it might be that neither could form a majority.
That would bring in the Ulster MPs (not all of whom attend of course) and the Nationalists and potentially UKIP/Green.
Some might see this as a crisis which it isn't. I do think a minority Government is much more likely than a Coalition/
It's possible, but it's unlikely.
I expect Labour & the Tories to hold about 25 more seats between them collectively than they did in 2010. So yes, it's possible even then that they'll end up extremely close together in seats , but it would only take a small swing one way or the other from that point to tip over into a majority for one of the parties. The "bull's-eye" for a hung parliament will be much smaller than in 2010 - not impossible to hit it, but it would take a combination of unlikely circumstances and "luck".
"life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them "
Has there actually been a drop in the number of overseas students at our universities? The last time I looked I seem to recall there had not been either a undergraduate or post graduate level.
There had certainly been a drop at language schools and schools of management but as an awful lot of that was bogus anyway so it should have (and Labour started the crack down)
" According to official Home Office figures, student visas from India were down 24% in the year to the end of September 2013, on top of a decline of over 50% during the preceding year. Yet the British government has made relations with India one of its top external priorities."
Comments
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/29/david-cameron-eu-referendum_n_5230769.html
I'm less sure about Victoria Ayling. Also Neil Hamilton should hang up his coat; he's a has-been with far too much history.
Ed can win a majority on 32%.
Dave - No.
NOM has deserved favouritism though.
Without a strong third party, there will only be a small band of possible outcomes that would lead to a hung parliament before the pendulum flips straight from Labour majority to Tory majority (or vice versa).
So Dave is the inverse of the Tory maj price to quit?
The Swiss have their own 'Rotherham' issues with the E Europeans in German Switzerland, asylum seekers, of which the Swiss take a lot.
Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.
Where is Mark Senior when you want him?
I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.
Doesn't matter who I vote for, Cons will win where I live so might as well vote with my heart
5 polls since the defection: UKIP average = 15.6%
5 polls before the defection: UKIP average = 13.6%
A 2 point / 15% increase seems like a significant change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
I agree NOM should be favorite - and a little shorter, as should an Ed Overall.
The reason. She thinks the Tories would give UKIP a hard time in Clacton if Boris stood.
I pointed her to the Survation poll published on Sunday. . . .
Unwise, but clearly some plonkers would nevertheless indulge. Wisdom is a resource in extremely short supply at PB.
I suspect the rumbling Rotherham sore will be helping Ukip as much as the Carswell defection, but that's just a guess (obviously).
It's a bit like England fans booing Stuart Binny for playing for India.
I'd be down a similar amount as things stand, but I'm not inclined to hedge at current prices. DC has some seriously tricky waters to navigate before we even get into election year.
UKIP 572
Lab 53
LD 4
Con 0
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Screenshot 2014-09-02 16.46.41.png
UKIP 60
Con 25
Lab 12
LD 2
into your by-election swingback model ?
"I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite."
Were you one of the 'Hang Mandela' crowd or are you too young?
"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."
Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:
Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.
Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.
Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points
Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points
Your average could simply be picking up that ComRes and Opinium find higher shares for UKIP than Populus and YouGov.
Comparing like-with-like:
2 YouGov polls after defection = UKIP 15%
2 YouGov polls before defection = UKIP 13.5%
ComRes = 17% (-1)
Populus = 15% (+2)
Opinium = 16% (-5)
Average that all together and UKIP are down by an average of 0.2% - not much effect just as NP said.
There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.
"So you're telling me there's a chance... YEAH!" - Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber.
Yes 3/1 (various)
No 3/10 (BoyleSports)
It's still virtually unprecedented for MPs, and Tory MPs in particular. [although pre-War it was a bit more common]
http://order-order.com/2014/09/02/brown-effect-gap-closes-12-points-since-gordon-joined-no/
Australia net overseas migration is nearly 250,000.
The point is that even with what you call controls they have as much net migration as we do and are smaller populations to start with. Pretending Farage is going to do any different is bogus. Any so called trade deal will include movement of labour.
Carswell praises Switzerland which has 25% immigrant population. Carswell has said immigration will continue if we leave the EU and regards pakistanis in the UK as British which is more than you do.
Australia Canada Switzerland and Norway have higher net migration rates than we do.
EU immigrants are transitory and will return as their own countries grow. Carswell welcomes Indians Pakistanis and Chinese etc. Unlike most kippers who want them thrown out.
Kippers give 3 cheers for Carswell but he fundamentally disagrees with the foreigner hating kipper. Kippers like totalitarian Putin. Carswell wants plebicites on everything and localism which the lefty intelligencia/ trade unions will monopolise. Certainly no guarantee that the kipper tendency views will get a look in.
Oh - did you hear what i said there? 'trade unions'. Where are they, where are their loud mouths. Nowhere to be heard. Very clever. Sometimes i wish right wingers had the half the brains of yer typical trade unionist.
Errr.... no!
I'm winning! No one I know would vote for more of what they have had.
Still, a feature whose return I would welcome.
The South Yorkshire Chief Constable has been recalled next week to talk more about the Rotherham issue. It should be fun.
Not a "hang Mandela" post, I have never believed in the death penalty for unprincipled cowardice.
David Cameron’s Scottish Problem is well-known and has been the subject of much analysis. But if Cameron’s difficulty north of the Tweed and Solway is at least understandable, Ed Miliband’s lack of commitment to the Unionist cause has been disgraceful. You’d hardly know, right now, that Labour are likely to be the largest party in Westminster as soon as next May. There are Labour activists in Scotland who wonder why they seem, as they see it, to have been deserted by Miliband and his cabinet.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/alex-salmond-is-within-sight-of-his-promised-land-scottish-independence-is-more-than-just-a-dream/
The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.
* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/09/exclusive-tory-clacton-selection-will-be-an-open-primary/
The UK on the other hand has no control over who enters the country from the EU at all. Indeed, as I have argued on here in the past, because we are in the EU and so have no control over migration from those countries we have the idiotic situation where the Government is placing restrictions on highly qualified migrants from non EU countries - the sorts pf people who could really benefit our economy - along with making life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them
It is membership of the EU which completely warps the whole debate on immigration and results in the sort of idiotic populist and utterly useless immigration policies Cameron has been following for the last 4 years.
Oh, no, that's right, nobody is taking them to the cleaners over it. *protect the establishment! keep our skeletons in cupboards*
The betting markets disagree. Lick licking time.
Where do you get that from? The kippers not Carswell
May need to spend another night in jail, however...
That would bring in the Ulster MPs (not all of whom attend of course) and the Nationalists and potentially UKIP/Green.
Some might see this as a crisis which it isn't. I do think a minority Government is much more likely than a Coalition/
In the end all he can do is make stuff up as he has no reasoned arguments against the Eurosceptics.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29032985
Must say that's not to my taste.
Edited extra bit: Alonso claims/states he's to stay with Ferrari:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/24184/9452908/sky-sports-exclusive-fernando-alonso-insists-he-will-stay-at-ferrari-for-2015
Indicates any driver move is likely Raikkonen. Maybe Bianchi? They should go for Hulkenberg, but there we are.
The focus on the cover ups of historical child abuse cases involving VIPs and MPs started soon after the Times reports also.
"life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them "
Has there actually been a drop in the number of overseas students at our universities? The last time I looked I seem to recall there had not been either a undergraduate or post graduate level.
There had certainly been a drop at language schools and schools of management but as an awful lot of that was bogus anyway so it should have (and Labour started the crack down)
Assuming YES, if 2015 produces something like
Lab 300
Con 280
LD 35
Nats 15
UKIP 2
NI 18
we're all in a bind, since 40 of Labour's MPs will represent a de facto foreign country and be on constitutional Death Row...
The rUK result will be something like:-
Con 279
Lab 259
LD 30
Nats 3
UKIP 2
NI 18
Why should Labour be allowed to form a government?
In the 1980s the FCS was noted for being more radical than the main party, more Thatcherite than Thatcher – ministers invited to speak at conferences were routinely chastised for not going far enough.[3]
In addition to supporting no-holds-barred privatisation, controversial positions embraced included the support for American intervention in Grenada, RENAMO, the UNITA rebels in Angola, and the Contras in Nicaragua.[14] "Hang Nelson Mandela" slogans[17] were apparently worn by some leading members.[13] The Federation made badges with the words "Nicaragua Must be Free". Ironically, some Labour students began wearing them without realising their origin and intended meaning.[18]
Some delegates to the Loughborough conference wore T-shirts with the slogan "Morning Cloud, remember the Belgrano". In October 1985 they were accused of physically intimidating Edward Heath.[19]
The satirical magazine Private Eye alleged that members of the FCS at Aberystwyth wore springbok jerseys, racially abused ethnic minority bar staff at the student bar and organised a night out in Aberystwyth town centre to celebrate the anniversary of Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany. Following that incident, all members of the FCS were banned from giving speeches or organising meetings at the institute under the students' union's 'No Platform for Racists or Fascists' policy.[20]
If they're keeping silent because of any form of cover-up or lack of care, then they need damning.
But I wonder if the forthcoming conferences might be of relevance.
"... so it's odd they've done absolutely nothing about it since the Times first broke the story."
As a matter of interest, what would you want them to do at the moment aside from condemn it?
Steve Davis and Denis Taylor.
Davis was in the lead through out the final until the very last black ball.
I expect Labour & the Tories to hold about 25 more seats between them collectively than they did in 2010. So yes, it's possible even then that they'll end up extremely close together in seats , but it would only take a small swing one way or the other from that point to tip over into a majority for one of the parties. The "bull's-eye" for a hung parliament will be much smaller than in 2010 - not impossible to hit it, but it would take a combination of unlikely circumstances and "luck".
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/student-visa-policy-disastrous-own-goal