Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bon

1235

Comments

  • Options
    HughHugh Posts: 955
    Plato said:

    Dear Hugh.

    I assume you are a sock-puppet for another poster. And still as tedious.

    I don't read yours - save yourself the pixels. These are the only ones I'm spending on you.

    Hugh said:

    Plato said:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    My entire point is that Labour are saying nothing that appeals to my social democratic side. I voted for Labour 3x. Whilst I won't for them again for many decades, my point is that they're not even touching my floating voter tendency.

    One can fancy a man, but don't want to marry him. I don't fancy Labour one iota. That's their problem.

    Neil said:

    Plato said:


    That's where they're failing on an epic scale. The wrong leader and nothing to say that even touches me.

    You misunderstand - Labour need to appeal to floating voters, not anti-Labour types.
    The point is, this is not a problem for Labour.

    They neither want nor need the votes of people out there on the Right like yourself.
    Plato, no-one vaguely sentient buys your floating voter canary in the coalmine act.

    It just embarrasses you, frankly.

    Perhaps stick to TV box sets.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Hugh said:

    Plato said:

    Dear Hugh.

    I assume you are a sock-puppet for another poster. And still as tedious.

    I don't read yours - save yourself the pixels. These are the only ones I'm spending on you.

    Hugh said:

    Plato said:

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    My entire point is that Labour are saying nothing that appeals to my social democratic side. I voted for Labour 3x. Whilst I won't for them again for many decades, my point is that they're not even touching my floating voter tendency.

    One can fancy a man, but don't want to marry him. I don't fancy Labour one iota. That's their problem.

    Neil said:

    Plato said:


    That's where they're failing on an epic scale. The wrong leader and nothing to say that even touches me.

    You misunderstand - Labour need to appeal to floating voters, not anti-Labour types.
    The point is, this is not a problem for Labour.

    They neither want nor need the votes of people out there on the Right like yourself.
    Plato, no-one vaguely sentient buys your floating voter canary in the coalmine act.

    It just embarrasses you, frankly.

    Perhaps stick to TV box sets.
    A couple of years back , Plato joined the Conservative Party , perhaps she has let her membership lapse since then and resumed her pretend floating voter act .
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable! Your dismissing a female voter, and one who voted three times for Labour in the recent past. Plato, and many other voters like her who switched from Labour at the last GE are exactly the demographic that the Labour party needs to win back if they are aiming to return to power any time soon.


    Not really, Mrs Lass. The 35% strategy sees Labour back in power without attracting anyone they don't already have. Such is the wonder of our so-called democracy. How anyone with a sense of decency can support it is beyond me.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Austin Mitchell on R4.. I don't think he will be the Labour defector... calling UKIP prejudiced
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited September 2014
    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110
  • Options
    UK Prime Minister ‏@Number10gov

    Where is #NATO operating in the world right now? Find out with this interactive map ahead of #NATOSummitUK: http://bit.ly/1td3n5D


  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    British Nanny State getting their citizens banged up abroad for doing what they thinks best for their dying child

    Time for a change



  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    edited September 2014

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable! Your dismissing a female voter, and one who voted three times for Labour in the recent past. Plato, and many other voters like her who switched from Labour at the last GE are exactly the demographic that the Labour party needs to win back if they are aiming to return to power any time soon.


    Not really, Mrs Lass. The 35% strategy sees Labour back in power without attracting anyone they don't already have. Such is the wonder of our so-called democracy. How anyone with a sense of decency can support it is beyond me.
    Was a big fuss made in February 1974 about Wilson not winning the popular vote ?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

  • Options
    Socrates said:

    Fantastic to see this Muslim youth charity in Rotherham fighting for justice:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1327001/muslim-youth-we-want-justice-for-the-1400

    I saw the interview last Friday and thought it very good - if change comes for the better amongst the 'asian' community, it will come through the likes of this young Mr Hussain.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Do hope so, phoned up Paddy Power to get extra money on UKIP @ 16-1 there.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Funny. Because I can point to an independent report showing that hundreds of child rapes happened because people were worried about appearing racist, but I'm not aware of any situation of similar scale happening from people wanting to "compartmentalise it". In this case (and a dozen or so other ones), it was clearly highly based on the race of those involved.
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Socrates said:

    Neil said:

    the US should've sent in soldiers to man the Ukraine border. Would've stopped the Russians getting in without having the US do any fighting.

    Can you think of any potential downsides to this course of action?
    If you didn't do anything that had potential downsides then you'd never take any political actions ever. There's a simple question here: do we want to stand up for the principle of territorial integrity against imperialist powers, or not?
    The thing is, Blair explicitly threw out the principle of territorial integrity in his Chicago speech, when he said that humanitarian concerns were more important - and thus the Kosovo intervention within the borders of Serbia.

    Further, Putin has already established that the West will not intervene when he invades certain former republics of the USSR, when we stood by and watched Russian tanks move around in Georgia.

    So there is no absolute principle in play here. The absolute principle is long dead.

    If we were to fight for the independence of Ukraine from Russia would we be able to limit it to a non-nuclear war?
    Georgia invaded South Ossetia, no one really seriously questions this.

    The right to self determination is sacrosant and this should always guide our policies. The tragedy is we are currently supporting a policy by Kiev so extreme that most Ukrainians don't even support it.
    http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/bolee-poloviny-ukraincev-vystupayut-za-prekraschenie-ato-tret-za-voynu-do-pobedy-151888_.html

    What should be clear is the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics have explicitly ruled out a Federal Solution, and given the rebels forces are well on the way of liberating the whole of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, they have de facto won their independence. The sooner we adjust our failed policy the better, the bloodshed can end and a settlement reached.

    http://russeurope.hypotheses.org/2726

    The US and EU interference in the Ukraine has been another shameful episode along the lines of Former Yugoslavia. Arbitary lines on the map drawn up by Communists to manipulate and subjugate peoples should not be the priority. The history of Europe in the 20th Century shows where the right to ethnic self determination is not allowed conflicts start.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Graph showing UKIP lead over Labour in targeted seats

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick · 14m
    .@GoodwinMJ: "In lots of Labour seats...there is a lot of potential for UKIP" #wato pic.twitter.com/EVTEUu5AZO

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    Why is the Government trying to extradite the parents of this kid when they have not done anything illegal? Seems insane. Especially since it is now clear they went to Spain to get some kind of specialist treatment refused by the NHS. It feels a lot like the UKIP foster home farce but worse since these clearly loving parents could end up in court because they tried to help their kid.
  • Options
    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable! Your dismissing a female voter, and one who voted three times for Labour in the recent past. Plato, and many other voters like her who switched from Labour at the last GE are exactly the demographic that the Labour party needs to win back if they are aiming to return to power any time soon.


    Not really, Mrs Lass. The 35% strategy sees Labour back in power without attracting anyone they don't already have. Such is the wonder of our so-called democracy. How anyone with a sense of decency can support it is beyond me.
    Was a big fuss made in February 1974 about Wilson not winning the popular vote ?
    Actually there was. There were certainly letters to the editor of the Times and if I recall articles about it in both the Times and the Telegraph.. A big fuss was a lot more low key in those days.

    How ever, you seem to have made a leap from the point I was trying, somewhat hamfistedly no doubt, to make. A system that confers a majority and, virtually dictatorial powers, on the basis of 35% of the votes cast by 60% of the electorate can scarcely be called a democracy.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Why is the Government trying to extradite the parents of this kid when they have not done anything illegal? Seems insane. Especially since it is now clear they went to Spain to get some kind of specialist treatment refused by the NHS. It feels a lot like the UKIP foster home farce but worse since these clearly loving parents could end up in court because they tried to help their kid.

    Agreed.. It just seems like a huge mistake by the police and the government

    PS: I've just ordered a PS4, another convert from the Xbox 360 for the next gen purchase.
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807



    Rexel56 said:

    Mr. 56, the parents should've informed the hospital.

    I fail to see why you're criticising the view that it's insane more police action has been taken to arrest two parents taking their own child than over 1,400 cases of sexual abuse against children.

    Mr. Sulphate, quite. The pasty bullshit got more sustained attention, as did the yacht nonsense.

    Mr Dancer, I merely comment on what strikes me as a superficially inconsistent stance until one realises that the protagonist merely seeks the opportunity to push an agenda, namely that anything to do with the EU is to be criticised whatever the context. To be fair, this is consistent with Farage's response to the question why he never votes in the EP.

    As a hypothetical, it would be interesting to see the response should the European arrest warrant be used to extradite a suspect in a Rotherham child sexual exploitation investigation...
    Are you really saying that wanting the police to investigate child rape is inconsistent with not wanting them to use an international arrest warrant to pursue a family with a sick child? On what bizarre mental plane is this inconsistent?


    No, I was saying that there is an inconsistency in berating the police for not taking action in one instance and berating them for doing so in another when they both involve child protection... But that inconsistency goes away when you realise it's the use of the EAW that is in fact being challenged rather than taking action per se... Others have then developed the debate to a more general level regarding the role of the state and intervention to override parental wishes or behaviour...

    My original post was motivated by some irritation that the case was being used to have a dig at the Home Secretary and to push an anti-EU agenda when the issue really is one of whether the police have taken sensible, operational decisions...
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
  • Options

    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
    And yet they are ahead of the LDs in virtually all recent polls...
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    UK Prime Minister ‏@Number10gov

    Where is #NATO operating in the world right now? Find out with this interactive map ahead of #NATOSummitUK: http://bit.ly/1td3n5D


    Have they found the WMDs that Anders Fogh Rasmussen continually claimed Iraq had yet?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
    Maybe he was talking bout the Euros?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,021
    Plato

    "And Lefties over here try to minimise it, whilst wailing over a single black kid shot by white deputies."

    Extraordinary the trivia with which these lefties will occupy themselves
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
    And yet they are ahead of the LDs in virtually all recent polls...
    They fell just behind the Lib Dems in all council by elections held in July and August both polled around 15% .
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @PBModerator

    Why is @Roger allowed to post/his posts not deleted when he continually accuses me of being racist/white supremacist/working for the BNP?

    None of it is true, you have said that people accusing others of this will be banned, he keeps doing it, you don't ban him

    So why?
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Smarmeron,

    I assume you don't work for Rotherham Council, but there may be a career opportunity for you there.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    Muslims are naturally drawn towards child abuse, and society turned a blind eye to the goings on?
    Leaves you to explain all the other cases that have been going on over the years that people also turned a blind eye too?
    What you seem to be doing is to pin it on one section of society, and one party, and ignore the children you see hanging around the streets of our major train and bus stations.
    Child abuse is not specific to the followers of Islam, and "cover ups" are not done by one political party.
    You are free to vent your rage at specific cases that offend your sensibilities, I prefer to look at it from a wider perspective.
    Freedom of thought and all that?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
    Maybe he was talking bout the Euros?
    Maybe , maybe he just dreamed up fantasy figures .
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,732
    edited September 2014

    Plato said:



    "business at the front, party at the back."

    I've only seen that used by a character in Supernatural - with the most appalling Chris Waddle haircut. Where does it come from?
    I've always used it to describe mullets, comes from a film whose name escapes me.
    Pat Sharp had the best mullet ("Fun House" - kids' TV from the late 80s!)

    BTW film you're thinking of is "Joe Dirt" (I googled, sorry!):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Dirt
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MaxPB said:

    Why is the Government trying to extradite the parents of this kid when they have not done anything illegal? Seems insane. Especially since it is now clear they went to Spain to get some kind of specialist treatment refused by the NHS. It feels a lot like the UKIP foster home farce but worse since these clearly loving parents could end up in court because they tried to help their kid.

    The 'government' are not trying to extradite anybody.
    Its the local police.
    Go ahead correct me if I am wrong. But if I am right perhaps an appology is due. I grow tired of people getting basic matters of fact wrong on the internet, and then basing hysterical spoutings on it.
  • Options

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    @PBModerator

    Why is @Roger allowed to post/his posts not deleted when he continually accuses me of being racist/white supremacist/working for the BNP?

    None of it is true, you have said that people accusing others of this will be banned, he keeps doing it, you don't ban him

    So why?

    It's got a bit better recently, but there's a long trend of moderation working like this. Someone from the left verbally abuses someone on the right. If the right-winger doesn't respond, it's ignored and the thing continues. If the right-winger responds, they're both given warnings and/or banned, and the topic, usually an uncomfortable one for the left, gets shut down.
  • Options
    In July 2010, the Islamic government of Iran issued updated grooming guidelines to men. Among the new regulations is a ban of the mullet hairstyle. The ban on mullets is one of the measures that Iran has deployed to confront the cultural assault by the West. The country aims to promote a set of new Islamic hairstyles that were unveiled at the Hijab and Chastity Festival of 2010.[14][15]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mullet_(haircut)
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
  • Options
    Lots of bad tempered posts on here today. Very poor form ,reminds me of the betfair politics forum
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

  • Options
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
    The majority of people in Lugansk (that's the Russian spelling BTW) and Donetsk oblasts are Russian-speaking.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    Why is the Government trying to extradite the parents of this kid when they have not done anything illegal? Seems insane. Especially since it is now clear they went to Spain to get some kind of specialist treatment refused by the NHS. It feels a lot like the UKIP foster home farce but worse since these clearly loving parents could end up in court because they tried to help their kid.

    The 'government' are not trying to extradite anybody.
    Its the local police.
    Go ahead correct me if I am wrong. But if I am right perhaps an appology is due. I grow tired of people getting basic matters of fact wrong on the internet, and then basing hysterical spoutings on it.
    Wouldn't the extradition request come from the Home Office?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The right to self determination is sacrosant and this should always guide our policies. The tragedy is we are currently supporting a policy by Kiev so extreme that most Ukrainians don't even support it.
    http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/bolee-poloviny-ukraincev-vystupayut-za-prekraschenie-ato-tret-za-voynu-do-pobedy-151888_.html

    So you'll be supporting the Chechens in their fight against Russia then?
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Oh - and South Ossetia was part of Georgia.
  • Options
    isam said:

    Austin Mitchell on R4.. I don't think he will be the Labour defector... calling UKIP prejudiced

    For Ukip to attract a Labour MP there would need to be a confluence of factors.They would be anti-EU and most of the anti-EU MPs are of the Dennis Skinner ilk.They would need to come from the authoritarian wing of Labour which seems more inhabited by pro-EU Blairites,like Clarke,Blunkett et al,and furthermore there would need to be a satisfaction of personal interest in some form,usually derived from the satisfaction of being able to win in their current constituency under the new banner of Ukip.There don't seem to be any red Kamikaze pilots ready to fly yet.


  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    @PBModerator

    Why is @Roger allowed to post/his posts not deleted when he continually accuses me of being racist/white supremacist/working for the BNP?

    None of it is true, you have said that people accusing others of this will be banned, he keeps doing it, you don't ban him

    So why?

    It's got a bit better recently, but there's a long trend of moderation working like this. Someone from the left verbally abuses someone on the right. If the right-winger doesn't respond, it's ignored and the thing continues. If the right-winger responds, they're both given warnings and/or banned, and the topic, usually an uncomfortable one for the left, gets shut down.
    Truly amazing

    Trolls come on and constantly throw out bait.. if you don't respond it infers they have a point, . If you do the mods treat the response more heavily than the instigation

    @hugh/tim has managed to get the mods to delete anything I post about Rotherham using this tactic, now Romanian beggar in Paris hating @Roger is trying the same

    Face it boys Multiculturalism is dead, and UKIP are taking over the WWC xx
  • Options
    Roger - Please don't make racist accusations at other posters.

    isam - You were warned last night not to talk about the events of Rotherham, yet you have continued to do so, plus don't swear at other posters.

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,020
    Uncrossover with Populus

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/OmOnline_Vote_01-09-2014_BPC.pdf

    LAB 347 CON 256 LD 21 UKIP 0 Others 26

    Ed is Crap is PM (UKPR)
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Roger said:

    Isam.

    I thought it a reasonable question. You are on here all hours of the day when most people under retirement age are working (even native English) and I know you are (by your own admission a big fan of Powell so the question seemed reasonable.

    If you want me to mind my own business fair enough. Asking for help from the moderators is a bit girly don't you think?

    Sexist insults. Classy.
  • Options

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Markit U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.5 last month from a downwardly revised 54.8 in July. It was the lowest reading since June 2013. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 55.0.

    Oh dear, that's pretty bad news!

    PMIs this morning are pretty weak (except in Ireland and Greece) across the board. There's no doubt that concerns about Ukraine (further sanctions, possibly worse) are weighing on activity everywhere in Europe.
    I'd say the more concerning bit is if this is approaching the peak of the cycle ( we're now 6 years from the downturn ) and we're STILL borrowing £100bn ish, what happens when the next downturn comes ?

    Maybe 2015 is another elction worth losing.
    " what happens when the next downturn comes ?"

    We are fecked, old son. But then when you have the likes of Mr. Charles arguing on here that we should continue to borrow money to fund the Arts Council there is little we can hope to do about it.
    Because the £350m the Arts Council costs will make the squar root of bugger all different (and it's already been cut by c. 20%). To impact a £100bn deficit we need to some very big decisions about resource allocation.

    Overseas aid is an example. There is a clear value in some aid, but increasing spending to his an arbitrary target at a time like this seems odd. I'm sure you could easily save £3bn+ without makng a real diffence in terms of impact.

    However, to cut £100bn you need to look at health, welfare (including tax credits) and pensions.
    Yup, but when you need to cut expenditure first you cut the "nice to haves", the optional extras.
    Chopping arts funding would clearly save a tiny fraction of what is needed, but unless you do that then you can't reasonably go after the big sums (health, welfare and pensions). Increasing spend on overseas aid to meet an arbitrary target is clearly a total nonsense but it does show where Cameron's heart is.

    Cameron, like Blair in 1997, has missed a massive opportunity and for the same reasons (cowardice combined with personal ambition). I suspect he will be out on his ear in 8 months time and deservedly so. Of course, the down-side to that is we are going to get Miliband who will be even worse.

    We're now at a watershed moment in that, while it has always been possible for 51% to vote to expropriate the other 49%, 35% can now vote to expropriate the other 65%; and what's more they appear minded to do so.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    This article is missing a lot of "[citation needed]"s
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
    The majority of people in Lugansk (that's the Russian spelling BTW) and Donetsk oblasts are Russian-speaking.
    Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It's like trying to claim the English-speaking Welsh want to be part of England.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Isam,

    Go easy on our Roger. He's a caricature, but fun.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why is the Government trying to extradite the parents of this kid when they have not done anything illegal? Seems insane. Especially since it is now clear they went to Spain to get some kind of specialist treatment refused by the NHS. It feels a lot like the UKIP foster home farce but worse since these clearly loving parents could end up in court because they tried to help their kid.

    The 'government' are not trying to extradite anybody.
    Its the local police.
    Go ahead correct me if I am wrong. But if I am right perhaps an appology is due. I grow tired of people getting basic matters of fact wrong on the internet, and then basing hysterical spoutings on it.
    Wouldn't the extradition request come from the Home Office?
    No.
    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    What tosh.


  • Options

    Socrates said:

    Fantastic to see this Muslim youth charity in Rotherham fighting for justice:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1327001/muslim-youth-we-want-justice-for-the-1400

    I saw the interview last Friday and thought it very good - if change comes for the better amongst the 'asian' community, it will come through the likes of this young Mr Hussain.
    If he doesn't get honour-killed first.
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
    The majority of people in Lugansk (that's the Russian spelling BTW) and Donetsk oblasts are Russian-speaking.
    Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It's like trying to claim the English-speaking Welsh want to be part of England.
    But still Russian-speakers.

    If you cast your mind back to the 1997 Wales devolution referendum, all the easterly parts of Wales, plus Pembrokeshire (Little England beyond Wales) voted NO to devolution.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b1/WalesRef1997.png/250px-WalesRef1997.png
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,381
    There's been some discussion here about why the Rotherham scandal hasn't evoked stronger reactions. FWIW my last circular to 10,000 constituents discussed it in some detail, together with three other subjects:

    http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/

    Lots of responses as usual about subjects 2, 3 and 4. Nobody has commented on Rotherham - nor did anyone mention it in the three weekend canvasses. One can only speculate on why (getting no responses on a lead topic is very unusual), but I think it's partly that it seems like another world in our peaceful suburb (I've checked and so far as I can tell the number of reports of anything like this, ever, in the borough is zero) and partly that it's so horrible that people just don't want to discuss it.

    Subject 3 is what's stirring people up, the latest item being here:
    http://beestonia.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/the-real-racists-of-kimberley/

    Whatever one thinks of one town councillor giving a rude nickname to another one, it's clearly much, much less important than organised rape and cover-up, but people feel it's easier to get their heads round. The MP has thrown herself into the issue with vigour, with I think a TV interview,a radio interview, two press interviews and two emails. I don't think she's commented on Rotherham, perhaps feeling it's not a constituency matter. UKIP doesn't have a candidate yet (nor do the LibDems).
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    Oh - and South Ossetia was part of Georgia.

    And East Prussia was part of Germany?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @Roger

    I just dont like being accused of being racist when I am not.. its an insult you keep throwing at me, its not permitted on here, but you are allowed to do it

    Last time you pretended you were just joking and I said fair enough, don't see why you have started it again

    Its none of your business but I am a trader on sports markets, and at the moment there are none in play. I am nowhere near the most prolific poster on here. Why don't you ask the same question of others?

  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    The right to self determination is sacrosant and this should always guide our policies. The tragedy is we are currently supporting a policy by Kiev so extreme that most Ukrainians don't even support it.
    http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/bolee-poloviny-ukraincev-vystupayut-za-prekraschenie-ato-tret-za-voynu-do-pobedy-151888_.html

    So you'll be supporting the Chechens in their fight against Russia then?

    Yes.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    You haven't been following this story very closely, have you?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    But still Russian-speakers.

    If you cast your mind back to the 1997 Wales devolution referendum, all the easterly parts of Wales, plus Pembrokeshire (Little England beyond Wales) voted NO to devolution.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b1/WalesRef1997.png/250px-WalesRef1997.png

    Yes, the English-speaking Welsh are more favourable towards England. That doesn't mean, should the UK one day come apart, that twenty years later England has licence to send in unmarked militias to take over the place.

    If the people of these regions want to leave Ukraine, they must do it via the democratic process. In reality, that seems highly unlikely, as pre-occupation opinion polls show huge margins wanted to stay part of Ukraine.
  • Options

    isam said:

    ... and no popular incumbent MP to defend the seat.

    Bye Bye Labour in GG

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ · 4m
    Austin Mitchell tells #wato I am wrong. Interesting. In his seat in May #Ukip beat Labour by 18 points and averaged over 41% of the vote

    Nope , UKIP polled 35% in the Grimsby wards in May , Labour 27% a lead of 8% on a turnout of less than 25% . Too much to expect correct facts from a UKIP supporter .
    And yet they are ahead of the LDs in virtually all recent polls...
    They fell just behind the Lib Dems in all council by elections held in July and August both polled around 15% .
    How about the Westminster polls?
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    British Nanny State getting their citizens banged up abroad for doing what they thinks best for their dying child

    Time for a change



    A typically pathetic and hysterical response to parfents taking a child away from expert medical treatment on a whim and with no one having a clue if they have correct medication or anything for him. Pretty disgusting too that you blatanly use it for political, purposes.
    For all anyone knew they could have been taking the child away for an assisted suicide.
    If the parents had been Jehovas (we think we know best) Witnesses refusing a blood transfusion then where should your nanny state have stood then.
    The courts are able to decide these matters without parents taking the law into their own hands.

    http://suesspiciousminds.com/2013/01/15/the-role-of-the-court-in-assessing-alternative-medical-treatment/

    ''It involves a child who is seven years old and has cancer, and a mother who disagreed with the proposed medical treatment and removed him from hospital. You may recall that the mother and child then went missing, and the High Court took the unusual step of identifying them in the press so that they could be located, and an interim care order was made to convey the child to hospital''

  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    You haven't been following this story very closely, have you?
    Actually, no. Want to answer rather than giving smarmy remarks?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067


    He's calling Survation's credibility into question there.
    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    Survation poll (Newark)

    CON 36% (-18) UKIP 28% (+ 24), LAB 27% (+ 4) LD 5% (-15) Others 5% (+5)

    With turnout around 40% (similar to recent by-elections) (A total turnout of 28,700), this would mean a Conservative majority of about 2,300, down from 16,152 at the last general election.

    Survation interviewed 606 adults by telephone on 27th-28th May. Full tables are available here. A note on our methodology from Director of Research Patrick Briône is available here.

    Result:

    CON 45% (-18) UKIP 25.9% (+ 24), LAB 17.7% (+ 4) LD 2.6%

    So Survation -> Result was as follows:

    Con +9%
    UKIP -2.1%
    Lab -9.3%
    LD -2.4%

    Clacton poll:

    UKIP 64%
    Con 33%
    Lab 13%
    LD 2%

    The numbers might be slightly wrong, but they won't be THAT wrong. I'd be staggered if UKIP don't win.

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,163
    edited September 2014
    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    Seems a bit bonkers. For example, 700 seems like a reasonable sample size for a single constituency. And I don't think immigration coming out top as a concern is that surprising given the demographics. They don't say jobs because they've retired to the seaside, and if they were still working a lot of people who couldn't get jobs would still say immigration, because that's what they think is causing their lack of a job.

    He then goes on to uncritically quote an unspecified partially leaked poll by Con or Lab, which kind-of takes the biscuit for somebody who's just spent half their piece bitching about pundits being gullible about polls.
  • Options
    Socrates said:


    But still Russian-speakers.

    If you cast your mind back to the 1997 Wales devolution referendum, all the easterly parts of Wales, plus Pembrokeshire (Little England beyond Wales) voted NO to devolution.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b1/WalesRef1997.png/250px-WalesRef1997.png

    Yes, the English-speaking Welsh are more favourable towards England. That doesn't mean, should the UK one day come apart, that twenty years later England has licence to send in unmarked militias to take over the place.

    If the people of these regions want to leave Ukraine, they must do it via the democratic process. In reality, that seems highly unlikely, as pre-occupation opinion polls show huge margins wanted to stay part of Ukraine.
    I presume you are against Israel's unilateral annexation of the Golan in 1981 (which, unlike the Territories, was part of a sovereign state, in this case Syria).
  • Options
    @ Pulpstar

    Can you remind me what our Indy bet was, again?

    I seem to still have every message in the thread except the one setting out the bet!

    Wasn't it £3 a full point over / under 43% Yes, capped at £30? You buy Yes at 43 I sell them?
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
    I have never claimed such a thing, there is a distinct Donbass culture and the Donabss has a strong Russian ethnic population as well as being linguistically Russian despite numerous Ukrainisation campaigns.

    You have no credibility due to your wild comments, lack of any knowledge and uncritical acceptance of Kiev's hysterical claims attempting to internationalise the conflict as well as NATO's repeats ludicrous claims to justify its existence.
  • Options

    isam said:

    British Nanny State getting their citizens banged up abroad for doing what they thinks best for their dying child

    Time for a change



    A typically pathetic and hysterical response to parfents taking a child away from expert medical treatment on a whim and with no one having a clue if they have correct medication or anything for him. Pretty disgusting too that you blatanly use it for political, purposes.
    For all anyone knew they could have been taking the child away for an assisted suicide.
    If the parents had been Jehovas (we think we know best) Witnesses refusing a blood transfusion then where should your nanny state have stood then.
    The courts are able to decide these matters without parents taking the law into their own hands.

    http://suesspiciousminds.com/2013/01/15/the-role-of-the-court-in-assessing-alternative-medical-treatment/

    ''It involves a child who is seven years old and has cancer, and a mother who disagreed with the proposed medical treatment and removed him from hospital. You may recall that the mother and child then went missing, and the High Court took the unusual step of identifying them in the press so that they could be located, and an interim care order was made to convey the child to hospital''

    Contrast their treatment with that of the McCanns.
  • Options

    There's been some discussion here about why the Rotherham scandal hasn't evoked stronger reactions. FWIW my last circular to 10,000 constituents discussed it in some detail, together with three other subjects:

    http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/

    Lots of responses as usual about subjects 2, 3 and 4. Nobody has commented on Rotherham - nor did anyone mention it in the three weekend canvasses. One can only speculate on why (getting no responses on a lead topic is very unusual), but I think it's partly that it seems like another world in our peaceful suburb (I've checked and so far as I can tell the number of reports of anything like this, ever, in the borough is zero) and partly that it's so horrible that people just don't want to discuss it.

    Subject 3 is what's stirring people up, the latest item being here:
    http://beestonia.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/the-real-racists-of-kimberley/

    Whatever one thinks of one town councillor giving a rude nickname to another one, it's clearly much, much less important than organised rape and cover-up, but people feel it's easier to get their heads round. The MP has thrown herself into the issue with vigour, with I think a TV interview,a radio interview, two press interviews and two emails. I don't think she's commented on Rotherham, perhaps feeling it's not a constituency matter. UKIP doesn't have a candidate yet (nor do the LibDems).

    Yes i think people just like a good 'set -to' . We all have the playground in us that likes to take sides in fairly trivial things especialy if its easy to understand. Plebgate is another example although one woudl have thought the establishment including the police and MPs could have been a bit more restrained and subjective and discussed something of more importance in the month or so afterwards
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    Seems a bit bonkers. For example, 700 seems like a reasonable sample size for a single constituency. And I don't think immigration coming out top as a concern is that surprising given the demographics. They don't say jobs because they've retired to the seaside, and if they were still working a lot of people who couldn't get jobs would still say immigration, because that's what they think is causing their lack of a job.

    He then goes on to uncritically quote an unspecified partially leaked poll by Con or Lab, which is kind-of takes the biscuit for somebody who's just spent half their piece bitching about pundits being gullible about polls.
    Exactly. If I had to make a guess, I'd say that the immigration concern % and the UKIP result are both a bit too high but not massively... but because it would just be a guess, I wouldn't write a blog post about it as if it was some special insight.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    You haven't been following this story very closely, have you?
    Actually, no. Want to answer rather than giving smarmy remarks?
    OK, yes there is a lot of evidence of just that. The political part of the scandal is that the agencies responsible for the protection of the victims failed in their duty because of the racial religious element of the cases.
  • Options
    It doesn't sound like she was being serious. Reminds me of the guy who was in trouble for tweeting about blowing up an airport when he was annoyed about a flight cancellation. We've got to stop taking what people say quite so seriously, and instead judge people on what they do.
    Plato said:

    Well that's rather narcissistic of her. What a numpty. She's watched too many James Bond baddies.

    In her disciplinary hearing Weatherley explained that she had known the recipient of her text for 20 years and the message was office banter. But a month later, on 21 October 2012, a text message was sent from her phone number to a neighbour called Nick. It read: "Not today but I'm at the front gates tomorrow so I still have time to bring the government down thanks for no graffiti."

    There's some new plebgate material out

    Plebgate officer sent text saying she could 'topple Tory government'

    Text is published in report on Met's investigation into Downing Street incident that ended Andrew Mitchell's cabinet caree

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/01/plebgate-officer-text-topple-tory-government-met-report



  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    Con +9%
    Lab -9.3%

    @iSam The Lab-Con differences in the polls in Newark were why I thought that tactical anti-UKIP voting was taking place.

    Still think there might be some anti-UKIP tacticals switching to Conservative over Labour in Clacton, but thy will be drowned out by the likely majority UKIP support.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    isam said:

    British Nanny State getting their citizens banged up abroad for doing what they thinks best for their dying child

    Time for a change



    A typically pathetic and hysterical response to parfents taking a child away from expert medical treatment on a whim and with no one having a clue if they have correct medication or anything for him. Pretty disgusting too that you blatanly use it for political, purposes.
    For all anyone knew they could have been taking the child away for an assisted suicide.
    If the parents had been Jehovas (we think we know best) Witnesses refusing a blood transfusion then where should your nanny state have stood then.
    The courts are able to decide these matters without parents taking the law into their own hands.

    http://suesspiciousminds.com/2013/01/15/the-role-of-the-court-in-assessing-alternative-medical-treatment/

    ''It involves a child who is seven years old and has cancer, and a mother who disagreed with the proposed medical treatment and removed him from hospital. You may recall that the mother and child then went missing, and the High Court took the unusual step of identifying them in the press so that they could be located, and an interim care order was made to convey the child to hospital''

    The precedents you give have one crucial difference to what has actually happened in this case . In those cases court orders were sought and obtained to remove the legal guardianship from the childrens' parents . In this case this has not been done and an arrest warrant issued against the legal guardians of the child . This is contrary to all English law .
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    You haven't been following this story very closely, have you?
    Actually, no. Want to answer rather than giving smarmy remarks?
    OK, yes there is a lot of evidence of just that. The political part of the scandal is that the agencies responsible for the protection of the victims failed in their duty because of the racial religious element of the cases.
    Well, what I'm aware of is that those agencies were worried about backlash from the communities if they investigated the abuse. What I'm asking is whether they were *justifiably* worried about that.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067

    @ Pulpstar

    Can you remind me what our Indy bet was, again?

    I seem to still have every message in the thread except the one setting out the bet!

    Wasn't it £3 a full point over / under 43% Yes, capped at £30? You buy Yes at 43 I sell them?

    43%

    £3/pt

    I'm on Overs, you're on Unders

    Under/Over Minimum payment to charity: £10

    Capped at £30
    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond July 2
    Ok, but do you want to run your example by me again as I couldn't follow thr figures?

    With the £30 cap (10 points) we're saying essentially it's what I'd call a knockout at 33 and 53?
    PulpstarPulpstar July 2
    Yep !
    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond July 2
    okey dokey, let's keep this exchange handy and I guess we will be able to settle by, what, end of Sep latest?

    There aren't any outlying areas whose votes will 3 days to be counted or anything are there?
    PulpstarPulpstar July 3
    Not sure.

    It IS Scotland ^_~
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    but because it would just be a guess, I wouldn't write a blog post about it as if it was some special insight.

    Some bloggers just cant help themselves alluding to some secret internal polling that only they are privy to and which completely coincidentally supports their world view.

    Eh, Dan?
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Con +9%
    Lab -9.3%

    @iSam The Lab-Con differences in the polls in Newark were why I thought that tactical anti-UKIP voting was taking place.

    Still think there might be some anti-UKIP tacticals switching to Conservative over Labour in Clacton, but thy will be drowned out by the likely majority UKIP support.

    Seems far more likely to me that the Labour vote split between UKIP and DNV.
  • Options

    It doesn't sound like she was being serious. Reminds me of the guy who was in trouble for tweeting about blowing up an airport when he was annoyed about a flight cancellation. We've got to stop taking what people say quite so seriously, and instead judge people on what they do.

    Plato said:

    Well that's rather narcissistic of her. What a numpty. She's watched too many James Bond baddies.

    In her disciplinary hearing Weatherley explained that she had known the recipient of her text for 20 years and the message was office banter. But a month later, on 21 October 2012, a text message was sent from her phone number to a neighbour called Nick. It read: "Not today but I'm at the front gates tomorrow so I still have time to bring the government down thanks for no graffiti."

    There's some new plebgate material out

    Plebgate officer sent text saying she could 'topple Tory government'

    Text is published in report on Met's investigation into Downing Street incident that ended Andrew Mitchell's cabinet caree

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/01/plebgate-officer-text-topple-tory-government-met-report



    Wise words but unfortuantely the law in this country is becoming ever more geared to what people say than what they do.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014

    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    Seems a bit bonkers. For example, 700 seems like a reasonable sample size for a single constituency. And I don't think immigration coming out top as a concern is that surprising given the demographics. They don't say jobs because they've retired to the seaside, and if they were still working a lot of people who couldn't get jobs would still say immigration, because that's what they think is causing their lack of a job.

    He then goes on to uncritically quote an unspecified partially leaked poll by Con or Lab, which kind-of takes the biscuit for somebody who's just spent half their piece bitching about pundits being gullible about polls.
    He has also mis read the 2nd poll.

    It was taken by the Conservative party BEFORE Carswells defection and showed that they led by 13% with Carswell, but UKIP led by 2-3% when the Tory candidate wasn't Carswell

    What it didn't give was a poll when the UKIP candidate was Carswell.

    So that part is definitely a mistake.. as for the first bit, I am not a polling expert., but 44% does seem a bit big. I'd guess more like 30%
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    So much for German efficiency. At Frankfurt airport you have to queue outside to get a bus to the train station. Like Luton.

    Hard to believe these are the same people who ran such an efficient train network in occupied Poland, in the early 1940s

    They are not the same people. Several generations separate them.
    The train network in Poland went to Auschwitz - so what are you trying to say?

    It is extremely fortunate for us that the Nazis in the '40s were in fact quite inefficient and backward in many ways and organisationally inept. They proved incapable of producing tanks and planes in suitable numbers and wasted all manner of resources on crackpot schemes. The only way they could beat us was with submarines and they allowed us to break their codes and never produced decent ocean going boats. Nazi Germany was idiotic and corrupt from top to bottom. Thankfully.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,021
    Sunil

    "Contrast their treatment with that of the McCanns."

    That seems like non sequitur of the day. What have the McCanns got to do with it?

    As it happens I agree with Flightpath. Being parents doesn't allow you to do what you choose with your children.

    Surprising that after the Rotherham hullabaloo so many on here should now consider the state to be intrusive when they try to exercise a duty of care,
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,163
    edited September 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Con +9%
    Lab -9.3%

    @iSam The Lab-Con differences in the polls in Newark were why I thought that tactical anti-UKIP voting was taking place.

    Still think there might be some anti-UKIP tacticals switching to Conservative over Labour in Clacton, but thy will be drowned out by the likely majority UKIP support.

    I don't know how closely Clacton voters are following this but Carswell worked quite hard to keep his brand contamination-free. By focusing on democracy and political responsiveness he makes himself quite hard to want to vote tactically against.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    You haven't been following this story very closely, have you?
    Actually, no. Want to answer rather than giving smarmy remarks?
    OK, yes there is a lot of evidence of just that. The political part of the scandal is that the agencies responsible for the protection of the victims failed in their duty because of the racial religious element of the cases.
    Well, what I'm aware of is that those agencies were worried about backlash from the communities if they investigated the abuse. What I'm asking is whether they were *justifiably* worried about that.
    Why should they even ask the question? "A child is being raped. Should I interfere to stop it happening? Hang on I must consider the implications of me doing so on community relations"
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    advising against therapies that may offer hope, but don't offer any realistic probability of actually helping.

    Key word here - advising

    The proton treatment may well not work, could well be a waste of £100,000... but the parents can try it if they wish to do so.

    THere is an interesting question here - how much does the NHS value the child's life, and how much do the parents. To the parents I would suggest their son's life has an almost infinite monetary worth, and so even if the chances of survival are raised from 0.1% to 0.11% by the proton beam treatment which would value his life at £1Bn - that is a price worth paying for the parents. Clearly the NHS could not afford to value each life at (effectively) £1 Bn as it just doesn't have that much money.

    The 0.1 and 0.11% chances I have made up (Perhaps it is 30%/35% ?) but there simply must have to be a value placed on people's lives in the NHS, as heartless as it sounds. It could be the marginal benefit of this treatment is simply not cost effective.
    Believe the standard government value of a young adult is £1m. A child could be more, ppose but don't know.
  • Options
    Contrast the King family treatment with that of the McCanns:

    Within weeks of the disappearance, the couple's middle-class status, at first protective, turned into a weapon against them. They were harshly criticized for having left their children alone despite the availability of Ocean Club babysitters and an evening crèche. Seventeen thousand people signed an online petition in June 2007 asking Leicestershire Social Services to investigate; the argument ran that a working-class couple might have faced child-abandonment charges, but a group of doctors on a posh holiday had been let off the hook.[143]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Madeleine_McCann
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/leicestershire/6740315.stm (BBC story from June 2007)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067

    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable! Your dismissing a female voter, and one who voted three times for Labour in the recent past. Plato, and many other voters like her who switched from Labour at the last GE are exactly the demographic that the Labour party needs to win back if they are aiming to return to power any time soon.


    Not really, Mrs Lass. The 35% strategy sees Labour back in power without attracting anyone they don't already have. Such is the wonder of our so-called democracy. How anyone with a sense of decency can support it is beyond me.
    Was a big fuss made in February 1974 about Wilson not winning the popular vote ?
    Actually there was. There were certainly letters to the editor of the Times and if I recall articles about it in both the Times and the Telegraph.. A big fuss was a lot more low key in those days.

    How ever, you seem to have made a leap from the point I was trying, somewhat hamfistedly no doubt, to make. A system that confers a majority and, virtually dictatorial powers, on the basis of 35% of the votes cast by 60% of the electorate can scarcely be called a democracy.
    I agree ! But can it be changed as Justine measures up the curtains in No 10 ? Doubt it.

    Cameron really should have offered up something a bit better than the alternative vote, as well as not allowing himself to be outplayed on the boundaries by Clegg et al.

    He'll only have himself to blame.

  • Options

    Mr. Woolie, obvious? Not to centre voters. Cameron's lost the right, at least partly, but is stronger than Miliband in the centre. If the Conservatives ditch him and go right they'll likely lose the centre rather than regain the right.

    Don't confuse him with polling evidence! Like the Yessers the Tory right prefer "truth" to "facts"!
    Not at all. I prefer my party a little less split asunder and a little more disciplined.
    You move to the centre to attract support, then, as you watch the polling and the vox pop increasingly swing right, you drag the centre voters with you back to the right.
    The opposite of what Miliband is trying to do with what remains of the New Lab centrists.
    Given everything that has happened lately, given the undercurrent of resentment, the right is exactly where a populist Government will emerge from.
    When will this happen and on which planet?

  • Options

    Contrast the King family treatment with that of the McCanns:

    Within weeks of the disappearance, the couple's middle-class status, at first protective, turned into a weapon against them. They were harshly criticized for having left their children alone despite the availability of Ocean Club babysitters and an evening crèche. Seventeen thousand people signed an online petition in June 2007 asking Leicestershire Social Services to investigate; the argument ran that a working-class couple might have faced child-abandonment charges, but a group of doctors on a posh holiday had been let off the hook.[143]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Madeleine_McCann
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/leicestershire/6740315.stm (BBC story from June 2007)

    pretty heartless to sign that petition imo. just as it is heartless to deny a possible dying child access to their parents (whatever the law says about their actions)
  • Options
    isam said:

    isam said:


    Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone · 4h

    How and why the poll giving #Carswell and #UKIP a 44 percent lead in #Clacton is utterly bogus......http://bit.ly/1njOk4t

    Seems a bit bonkers. For example, 700 seems like a reasonable sample size for a single constituency. And I don't think immigration coming out top as a concern is that surprising given the demographics. They don't say jobs because they've retired to the seaside, and if they were still working a lot of people who couldn't get jobs would still say immigration, because that's what they think is causing their lack of a job.

    He then goes on to uncritically quote an unspecified partially leaked poll by Con or Lab, which kind-of takes the biscuit for somebody who's just spent half their piece bitching about pundits being gullible about polls.
    He has also mis read the 2nd poll.

    It was taken by the Conservative party BEFORE Carswells defection and showed that they led by 13% with Carswell, but UKIP led by 2-3% when the Tory candidate wasn't Carswell

    What it didn't give was a poll when the UKIP candidate was Carswell.

    So that part is definitely a mistake.. as for the first bit, I am not a polling expert., but 44% does seem a bit big. I'd guess more like 30%
    I agree, 30% sounds more plausible. Maybe less depending how well organised they are at turning voters out, organising postal votes etc. Still don't think it'll be at all close though.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @NickPalmer

    Don't you think that the people reading Nick Palmer's circulars might be socially and politically unusual?
  • Options

    Smarmeron said:

    SimonStClare
    Because Simon, it is simple. Child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on the race or religion of those involved.
    You and many others want to compartmentalise it, and serve up the solution to suit your particular prejudice.
    And that my friend, is EXACTLY why it continues.

    Your response is a classic example of why the abuse continued for so long in Rotherham.
    Have to agree with you there. Although child abuse and exploitation is not predicated on, or limited to, one race, religion or culture, there is obviously a problem with regards to some areas, in which racial, religious and cultural aspects are playing a significant role in the abuse.

    Any investigations should not be limited to any one race or religion; but neither should we be failing to investigate alleged abuse because of racial or religious issues.

    Sadly, it looks as though we have been failing to investigate for exactly those reasons.
    Was there ever any reason to believe that investigating child abuse in Rotherham would actually have been met with hostility along racial or religious lines?
    Well, so far I've seen several reasons why any investigations were half-hearted at best in Rotherham and elsewhere.

    1) The girls involved were seen as being not worth the bother; they were 'the sort' to do this, or even, incredibly, that they were in consensual relationships despite being vastly under age.

    2) This is more applicable to your question. There was pressure put on the police and council from members of the community; suspects played the race card, and the council did not want to upset the apple cart. There was also a justifiable fear of being accused of being racist.

    Whether these assumptions are right, and the weightings that should be put on them, will ideally be discovered in a wide-reaching inquiry.

    But I fear your question is the wrong one.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Markit U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.5 last month from a downwardly revised 54.8 in July. It was the lowest reading since June 2013. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 55.0.

    Oh dear, that's pretty bad news!

    PMIs this morning are pretty weak (except in Ireland and Greece) across the board. There's no doubt that concerns about Ukraine (further sanctions, possibly worse) are weighing on activity everywhere in Europe.
    I'd say the more concerning bit is if this is approaching the peak of the cycle ( we're now 6 years from the downturn ) and we're STILL borrowing £100bn ish, what happens when the next downturn comes ?

    Maybe 2015 is another elction worth losing.
    " what happens when the next downturn comes ?"

    We are fecked, old son. But then when you have the likes of Mr. Charles arguing on here that we should continue to borrow money to fund the Arts Council there is little we can hope to do about it.
    Because the £350m the Arts Council costs will make the squar root of bugger all different (and it's already been cut by c. 20%). To impact a £100bn deficit we need to some very big decisions about resource allocation.

    Overseas aid is an example. There is a clear value in some aid, but increasing spending to his an arbitrary target at a time like this seems odd. I'm sure you could easily save £3bn+ without makng a real diffence in terms of impact.

    However, to cut £100bn you need to look at health, welfare (including tax credits) and pensions.
    But surely it will need us to look at 'small' cost savings as well as large?

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-ukrainian-troops-massacred-pro-russian-4142110

    Must be true, along with that Russian invasion that has yet to materialise. If they weren't in Donbass they wouldn't have been killed.

    Why are you concerned about soldiers being killed in battle but not civilians killed by shelling?
    Where they burned alive like those people in Odessa?
    The Russia invasion has already materialised. We have satellite photos of Russian artillery in Ukraine.

    Your credibility on this entire issue was shot when you started trying to claim there was an ethnically "Donbass people", contrary to every census ever collected in Ukraine.
    I have never claimed such a thing, there is a distinct Donbass culture and the Donabss has a strong Russian ethnic population as well as being linguistically Russian despite numerous Ukrainisation campaigns.

    You have no credibility due to your wild comments, lack of any knowledge and uncritical acceptance of Kiev's hysterical claims attempting to internationalise the conflict as well as NATO's repeats ludicrous claims to justify its existence.
    Says the guy that tries to discredit American officials by referring to them by their family's prior Jewish name...

    The situation is already internationalised by the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Isam,

    If Roger calls you a racist - you've won the argument (whatever it was).
  • Options
    PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 661
    edited September 2014
    test
This discussion has been closed.