Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again
Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure a working majority. Currently Ladbrokes make the Tories 4/5 favourite to retain it.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
However, it is far from certain that Scottish constituencies will ever be sending any more representatives to the Westminster parliament. We'll see.
The UKIP price has lengthened a touch from last night, from 1/7.
Clacton by-election - best prices
UKIP 1/6 (Betfair)
Con 5/1 (Coral, PP, Shadsy)
66 bar
SNP 1/10
Con 8/1
Lab 20/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Far more people are planning to vote Yes than the polls show. That, in a nutshell, is what Alex Salmond's camp believe. And the thinking behind that belief is one of the most important hypotheticals underpinning this campaign.
People are only ever picked up by pollsters if they have a landline telephone or internet connection. All the signs are that turnout will be as high as 80 per cent come September 18 (way above the last Scottish election, which was around 50 per cent). Huge swathes of new voters – registering for the first time or coming back to politics after years of apathy – are not being registered by polls. And the vast majority of them will vote Yes.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benrileysmith/100284673/scotland-decides-17-days-left-team-salmond-believe-the-polls-are-wrong/
If true, this is gonna be explosive.
http://acenewsdesk.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/mystery-photo-of-the-man-who-allegedly-hit-jim-murphy-with-eggs-strange/
If you recognise any of the people in the photos, please inform the police.
Anyone politically interested born in the 80s and achieving maturity under Blair knows full well what is expected of an MP.
So what we are seeing is a one-time effect as people's illusions are cruelly shattered. A number of those individuals will be brave enough to say: it's not for me.
And good luck to them.
I'll get my coat.
The problem I see is that the job of being an MP is so deeply unattractive that the talent pool from which ministerial appointments is made gets ever shallower. I am not wanting to make a party political point but the current shadow cabinet must make Ed despair. It is not as if he is ignoring great talents for party factional reasons, it is just not there or not willing to serve.
Cameron has tried hard to undo some of the centralisation that occurred under Blair and, disastrously, under Brown and has tried to give cabinet ministers freedom to run their departments to a large extent. I agree with the policy in principle but it has to be said that it is something of a mixed success. I personally admired much that Gove did but electorally it got impossible to support. The unsuccessful war against the mighty badgers did not do much for the government's reputation either. Lansley had to be abandoned in health although things have improved there under the new management. I still worry about IDS.
The point of all of this is that even getting promotion to ministerial office is not as exciting as might be thought. Chris Mullin's book, A view from the foothills, was probably his most useful contribution to public life, essentially In the thick of it without the swearing. What sort of rational person would want to commit themselves to such a career? And do we want such persons to run the country?
Oh well.....back to the conspiracy mill......
I have always suspected that this was going to come down to GOTV and differential turnout. The No campaign has relied far too heavily on the air war (where they reign supreme; social media excepted) and left it far too late in their ground war efforts. They were quite literally *years* behind the Yes campaign in building up their GOTV intelligence.
You can still get over 4/1 on Yes at Betdaq and Betfair this morning. The people that are laying Yes at that preposterous price are either fruitcakes or they are folk that know literally zilch about Scottish psephology.
Remember, if 75% to 80% of people vote then you might as well throw all your tried and trusted polling weightings out the window. Such a turnout is not just very likely, it is also totally unprecedented in modern times.
This is going to be close. I have been saying that for two years now, and nothing I have seen or heard, publicly or privately, has made me change my mind. Both Yes and No should be hovering within a narrow band around EVS. They are not.
Is the 'investigative journalist' actually a journalist, or just a two-bit blogger sitting in his underpants in an upstairs room?
I'm also slightly concerned that there are certain dangers in the current atmosphere with plastering pictures of people all over the 'net who may well be innocent or uninvolved.
Islamic State’s financier was director of a Muslim primary school: Again and again we see that yesterday’s “mo... http://bit.ly/1wZ6CBA
Everyone had certainly had a lot of leaflets etc and were aware of the Yes public events in the town square etc but door to door there is a lot less evidence of their presence. There was some suggestion recently that BT had in fact contacted a greater percentage of the electorate than Yes.
Whether this activity does any good is of course another question but whilst it is clear that the SNP had a major advantage at the start of this interminable campaign my snap shot view suggests that gap has been closed.
As Tony Benn rightly observed, democracy is in essence a revolutionary process. If you are the establishment you can temper the impact slightly by buying the influence of the parties so they are of the same inkling (hence Cameron Clegg and Blair being the bloody same), but what do you do when some Scotch upstart demands a referendum to break up the realm and one of your politician implants has the idiocy to grant one?
A Scottish Yes vote would be like a bomb going off in this country - surely the establishment are out in force to prevent it happening.
Mind you, at least the blog editor admits it with a "Welcome to the conspiracy!' at the bottom of the text.
It's also because, with a few exceptions, conspiracy theorists do not know how to format their article. The best and most compelling conspiracy theorists write like real journalists; indeed, I think some really are journalists.
(*) Which is why I use italics and smileys on here. Ahem.
My vague impression is that they are generally regarded as more prestigious and respected. The collateral damage done by the expenses scandals in this country has clearly had a significant long term impact.
Most European countries seem to have a significant number of ministers who are not a part of the Parliament. They are accountable to it but not in it. We use the Lords for this of course but I wonder if we should think about allowing governments to appoint more technocrats like the excellent Andrew Adonis without giving them silly titles?
Is it not more likely, as has been suggested here over the years, that it is David Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle that has made it clear to frustrated backbenchers they have no hope of ministerial office?
There is also a view that many of these voters who normally don't bother are more likely to vote yes. On my own experience I think that is true. A Labour MSP who was canvassing with me yesterday said it was hardly surprising that some of those we were speaking to would think that any change was likely to be for the better.
The contrast is with the Tory vote. It will be over 90% no but these are people who consistently vote even when it is hopeless like in Dundee West (ahem). They will therefore have been fully taken into account by pollsters.
It's a theory but it seems unlikely to me that the polling companies are (a) ignorant of the phenomenon and (b) likely to collectively all make the same silly mistake.
https://theconversation.com/patronising-bt-lady-ad-may-not-quite-be-the-disaster-it-seems-31061
It's a naive understanding of the political process, and one that a different voting system such as PR would not necessarily resolve.
It's the fact they see their vote as more valuable than those of their fellow citizens.
Your preferment point is partially right, but it implies that all MPs are careerists and I'm not sure - at least for this last generation - that that is entirely true.
Whatever the reason, though, we have a problem in that people with a lot to contribute do not see becoming an MP as something to aspire towards (for example - without meaning to imply that I have anything to contribute - my parents and uncle actively disuaded me from becoming a politician; my father made the same decision in the 1960s. If people like me, who grew up with a sense of a public service obligation and a duty to contribute to society don't want to participate that is not optimal)
Today on BBC1 from 8:30pm to 9:00pm
Panorama investigates why the police and council ignored warnings about the abuse that affected more than 14 hundred children.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100284604/the-self-loathing-of-the-british-left-is-now-a-problem-for-us-all/
I’m in the business of changing people’s lives, not offering them false hope. That’s why I get so angry when Alex Salmond and the Nationalists dismiss legitimate questions about the currency and our economy. These aren’t debating points – this is about people’s lives.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/in-scotland-were-offering-what-people-are-really-asking-for/
"Negotiations between the Tories and Lib Dems are expected to continue ahead of the unveiling of a new plan to tackle the threat of Islamic extremists.
David Cameron will announce steps to widen anti-terror laws once the much-debated package of measures is agreed."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29008316
As the polls show that the LDs are still in favour of immigration and the ECHR, are Clegg and Menzies trying to make the LDs even more unelectable just 8 months before the GE, when most of the country are against their policy on such matters.(ST YouGov)
Close examination of Business for Scotland’s declared member list shows that the group has only a tiny handful of members who employ significant numbers of Scots, and literally none with a substantial cross-border trade. In other words, it could scarcely be less representative of the industries that provide the majority of Scotland’s private-sector jobs and which, according to the No campaign, are at risk from a Yes vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11065467/Small-firms-making-big-claims-for-Scottish-independence.html
Dave and Hmm A Yes vote in Scotland (And the corresponding 40 Labour seats to fall by ~ 2016) and UKIP taking one of the Conservative party's former very very safe seats. (Whole of CON east coast in danger ?)
Dave and Ed may need to ask themselves where did it all go wrong.
For a little light relief, the Fringe's 'funniest' jokes are found at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23753634
"Patriotism is morally vicious. That's why Sean Thomas was unable to quote any of the world's great religious leaders in support of his argument"
I agree. In fact I found the whole article a load of vacuous tripe. The Telegraph usually does better than that.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/scottish-independence-yes-vote-turnout-polls
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29004196
Go Scotland!
I suppose if the political party leaders keep leeching taxes from us to fund highly expensive ineffective child protection schemes whilst turning a blind eye to allegations about the destruction of files, records, will that be a surprise?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10485692/Glasgow-helicopter-crash-Labour-MP-Jim-Murphy-among-first-responders.html
"Does he ever write anything else"
Sometimes yes but this was just a poor attempt at doing a 'Littlejohn' without the wit.
Scotland leaving the union is anyway an unalloyed benefit to the remainder of the UK but the chances and impact of such an event are so trivial as not to be worth bothering with. MI5 has better things to do.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/31/scottish-universities-brain-drain-vote-independence
The typical attitude displayed by "cybnernats" over the last couple of days is that Jim Murphy gets what he deserves because, in their view, he's a miserable specimen of a human being. There's a massive arrogance to think that you get the right to prevent your opponents speaking and the public to listen, if they want to.
If an ill child goes missing from hospital, do you expect the hospital just to sit on its hands and do nothing?
If a hospital reported a child missing to the police, how do you expect the police to react? If the police find the boy's been taken abroad, do you honestly say they should not have tried tracking them down?
The next ARSE 2015 general election projection will be posted here at about 9am tomorrow.
To put a serious response to flockers' brilliant piece - reasons to like being an MP are:
* You aren't there for yourself, any more than any of us bother to vote hoping for personal benefit. You're there because you think your party, movement or strain of thought will improve the country or even the world. A life without being part of a cause is limited, and being an MP you've making a reasonably significant contribution.
* The direct positive feedback is huge. You can help about half the people who come to your surgeries, just by being a well-connected well-educated champion for people in difficulty. They are generally really, really nice about it. Sure, it's not in the job description, but it's satisfying anyway.
* The whole of public policy is open to you to explore. Whatever your interests, you have unrivalled research facilities and a platform to express whatever conclusions you reach. Everyone has partly-baked ideas on what should be done on this or that. As an MP, you can take the time to make them fully-baked and potentially (that's the rub) get them part of what is actually implemented.
I have an interesting job doing something important to me which has lots of travel and variety. If I'm elected I'll take a pay cut again and a more uncertain situation. I don't care.
UKIP bangs on about change and the LibLabCon, but meanwhile
- welcomes the most notorious trougher of the last 50 years;
- Farage keeps dodging expenses audits;
- multiple UKIP MEPs have been done or even jailed for fiddling;
- Farage and Carswell concocted a classic Westminster stitch-up in Clacton.
It is this sort of thing that convinces me UKIP is simply yet another head of the political class Hydra.
It seems pretty obvious that Farage et al have spotted a gap in the market for a nasty product - a racist p00f-hating 1950s tribute loony party - and have cynically filled it, aiming simply to trouser as much lo££y as possible for as long as possible. Few of their supporters appear to have the least inkling that UKIP are a children's crusade.
It is very much the same thing as the UK Lada importer did in the 1980s - they spotted there was a niche for a manufacturer of second-hand cars, so they filled it with their horrid product. They got away with it because their customers expected so little they were impossible to disappoint.
This is the crap that Theresa May has opted into. She's truly a useless Home Secretary.
All is not well when your MPs quit defendable seats or defect to rival parties.
Hardly a sign of confidence.
"If true, this is gonna be explosive."
A blind man on a galloping camel could tell you that the man with the ear-piece isn't the same man who is wearing the earpiece!
I've never seen such a ridiculous attempt at a conspiracy since Tapestry thought Martians brought down the WTC.
Alex Salmond accused of 'hypocrisy' over warnings about privatisation of NHS
Scotland's First Minister is criticised for claiming the health service would be saved from privatisation by a yes vote after it emerged Glasgow's health bosses have awarded a big private contract
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11066699/Alex-Salmond-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-warnings-about-privatisation-of-NHS.html
On "straws in the wind" just had a lifelong and very tribal Glasgow Labour friend come out for Yes - more despite the SNP (which he heartily loathes) than because of it....
Are you sure that the child was actually missing or had been taken out of hospital by its parents who were in disagreement with the doctors at that hospital.
On Today R4 this morning, a reputable oncologist from another hospital said that in such cases the NHS often refers such cases for treatment outside of the UK as the NHS does not have the required facilities.
Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
01/09/2014 07:41
"Cameron increasingly looks like a man of straw, driven into ill-considered decisions." @trevor_kavanagh today bit.ly/1qTuNZN
Immigration is a "gateway" issue. The public need to trust parties on it before they will listen to them on other topics.