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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll
In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours.
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Mr King told how they had wanted to leave the hospital because the NHS could not fund the proton beam treatment that they wanted for their son.
Proton beam therapy is well established theoretically, although given the capital cost of installing the dedicated facilities it remains relatively rare. That said, there's probably been 100,000 patients treated with it, mainly in the US and Japan - a good friend of mine was looking at ways to bring Mevion's (www.mevion.com) technology to the UK precisely because he saw the benefits from the therapy approach.
It also has 501K approval in the US; Mevion states that their product complies with CE requirements in Europe - which looks to me odd wording suggesting they haven't got a CE mark.
But whatever. This *isn't* a case of no treatment or some kookie homepathic theory. This is serious medical therapy - and the parents should be entitled to treat their child using it even if the NHS doesn't want to pay for it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738742/BREAKING-NEWS-Terminally-ill-boy-Ashya-5-alive-police-Spain-Jehovahs-Witness-father-explains-parents-snatched-hospital-went-run.html
It's the fact they apparently took the kid out of hospital without telling them that's the problem for me. If the hospital were not told, then I cannot see what else they should have done aside from tell the police, and what the police could have done other than investigate.
It's also interesting that the father claims the hospital were wanting to get an emergency protection order. We've only got one side of the story here. Perhaps the hospital were utterly out of order, but on the evidence we have so far, I doubt it.
And the police are, for once, blameless. What could they do once the hospital had reported a child missing?
If you'd like to message me I'm very happy to discuss my position and views.
Threatening an EPO in the first place is a ridiculous over-reaction on the hospital's part.
But you're right: we've only one side of the story
The 2010 Clacton result was:
Con 53%
Labour 25%
LD 13%
BNP 5%
Others 4%
Yet the table above has unweighted figures of four times as many 2010 Con voters than Labour and 12 times as many 2010 con than LD. The weighting doesn't change the proportions much.
Also the table has a sample where the vast majority of those surveyed were over 55. Clacton is bungalow heaven of course, but is that really correct?
I need to get up and make some coffee, but that looks a very odd sample to me (disproportionally made up of elderly former Con voters).
PS - Nadine, if you want me to vote for you again, Follow Douglas.
Doing Well (net)
Cameron -8 (-1)
Miliband -46 (-6)
The 44% is setting the political dynamic (although I am sure parties are looking at their private polling).
It also suggests that the Tories are likely to be even more value if Betfair or others shift their prices based on this poll.
There is proton beam therapy on the NHS including a recent £250 million pound investment at Clatterbridge: http://www.clatterbridgecc.nhs.uk/news/newsitem.aspx?storyID=5525
It sounds to me that we are not getting the whole story, and that a distraught parent(s) having received some extremely bad news is probably not thinking clearly. If the paediatricians caring for the child do not believe the parents are capable of making an informed consent decision, then the obligation is a temporary protection order by a judicial process. Parents do not have absolute control over the medical care of their children, and rightly so. This is the law of consent in the UK (EU law is not applicable).
Whether proton beam therapy is better than external beam gamma radiotherapy for this particular tumour, I cannot say, but it does sound as if delay in treatment may have severe adverse effects, far worse than the side effects of radiotherapy. Just because a tumour is inoperable does not make it untreatable.
I'm sorry David, but that is quite simply total and utter nonsense.
The Scotland Act 1978 was an act of the Labour UK government, with support from the Liberals. How on earth does that make the teensy weensy SNP "the prime movers"? That is like trying to claim that the teensy weensy DUP (8 MPs) were "the prime movers" in passing the Defence Reform Act 2014. It is utterly preposterous.
Further, the Scottish Assembly was not even SNP policy. We supported independence, not the half-baked crud that Whitehall cooked up in the mid 70s. So, we can hardly be accused of being the "prime advocates" either. We thought that the Scottish Assembly proposal was pretty dire, but it was less dire than the status quo, so we reluctantly backed a Yes vote.
The 1979 referendum failure was entirely the responsibility of the Lib-Labs, and they both went on to increase their Scottish vote share at the subsequent GE.
The 1979 referendum failure was a failure for the UK govt. A 2014 referendum failure would be a victory for the UK govt.
Your original statement in yesterday morning's piece ("The effect of a No would be less significant though the last time the SNP failed in a referendum, they parliamentary party took a hammering at the next election") is just so full of holes that is is even more revealing than a string vest. It says more about the psychology of English Tory analysts than it enlightens readers about Scottish voting patterns.
I expect it to be a lot closer than this. Results like this make me worry that the same company is responsible for the only post debate poll in Scotland.
This has been building for some time, but we do need to be clear about the reasons. For over 25 years voters disillusioned with the government have had two viable alternatives; they could switch to the other main party, or they could move to the Lib Dems. Governing generally has a corrosive effect on popularity, as failures are remembered long after successes, scandals taint irrevocably and resentment festers. Occasionally a traditional party of government can renew themselves in opposition, as Blair did Labour and Cameron, to a lesser extent, did the Conservatives. But over time we saw the rise in apparent Lib Dem support, as voters tired of choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea and opted for something else.
But the apparent Lib Dem support was an illusion. Much of it was based on opposition to something, rather than support for something. So, when the Lib Dems formed a government, and despite doing rather well, much of it melted away. Much of it initially went to Labour, but that is not the full story.
We now have a unique situation in which voters disillusioned with the current Government have lost their safety valve option. They cannot vote Lib Dem. Labour remains severely tainted by their inept governance from 2002 - 2010 and today offer a seriously underwhelming electoral prospect. This is not a party fit for government and the electorate knows it. So the votes go elsewhere.
There is also, separately, a splintering of the conservative right. This was initially the main source of Ukip support and until recently lazy commentators assumed that was still the case.
Ukip are the beneficiaries of the loss of one viable alternative and the weakness of the other. Nature abhors a vacuum, so Ukip fills it. In doing so its new supporters project all kinds of virtues onto it, as many red liberal democrats did to the Lib Dems. They are the party of eveyman; liberal and authoritarian, state slashing and on the side of the working man, right and left. They will hound everyone else living on benefits, but protect yours. They will take us out of the EU and be the party of business. They will increase spending on defence and fight no wars. Above all, they will govern competently.
Part 2 to follow
But these projections are fantasies. We don't know what Ukip would do with power, because we know precious little about what Ukip is, and indeed Ukip doesn't know either. It is evolving, developing, but still nascent. Its leading figures have more often been the source of amusement than political inspiration. They are a safe option precisely because they are so far from being a credible party of government.
Ukip deserve some credit for recognising how significant the issue of immigration would become, and for positioning themselves to benefit from it. Their current support reflects that positioning as well as the factors I mentioned above. But in power they would be equally helpless to prevent most of the issues that drive people's concerns; the social segregation, the rising religious extremism, the predatory gangs of second and third generations. They have not demonstrated any insight into how those problems may be tackled; a desire to turn back the clock will not suffice. Leaving the EU and stopping Romanian fruitpickers from taking the jobs couch potatoes from grim towns fight so desperately to get will no doubt win applause from the gallery, but governing is hard. And if Ukip ever get to try it, we'll see whether the good people of Clacton remain purple.
Firstly the number of young people, libdem to UKIP switchers Labour to UKIP switchers and female UKIP voters seems compleatly at odds with national trends.
Secondly it has UKIP outperforming its Euro polling in a Westminster election albeit a by election, it may be that factors like UKIP actually appearing to have a candidate and the initial publicity have given UKIP a boost but I think a 40% swing from a the low of 2010 for Labour is an alarm bell, as is a similar swing from Libdem to UKIP, can these figures be trusted?
Has anyone with more experience of these spreadsheets got some comments to make? If this is a voodoo poll then there is money to be made!
@flockers_pb
An excellent analysis. In other words, I agree!
I agree, though I would add that it is both healthy and right that the voters should give the main Parties a kicking from time to time. Be grateful that in this country we do so by turning to UKIP (and formerly the LDs.)
In France they turn to Le Front National, a horse of a rather different colour.
This determined refusal to acknowledge or engage with the complexities of the modern world is augmented by a press and media who are almost wilfully ignorant of most issues. Add in some genuine horrors like Rotherham and you have fertile soil for UKIP and a few simplistic soundbites and a lot of projection.
From an electoral perspective, people lazily assume it will damage the Tories most. It seems to me that the effect will be largely random and very difficult to predict - depending to a great extent on the local factors, demographics, party structures and candidates (both incumbents and insurgents) in each seat.
But even if they don't win any seats, Cameron and Miliband need to wake up and realise that the political compact that governs this country is broken.
Clacton is unusual. UKIP wouldn't be getting these figures in Islington or Glasgow.
I understand (although may be wrong) that the FN has softened its countenance in recent years. Even if so, I guess the suspicion lingers that any conversion to enlightenment is for electoral gain and the rotten core remains.
I've chucked a couple of quid on UKIP to win, if I don't make a bit on the odds coming in if the above plays out I'll be surprised.
Cameron has done zilch to hand back citizens the chance and responsibility to run their own lives. The state is as big as ever, he keeps passing laws, the latest fiasco on HMRC robbing citizens being a case in point and does all this because he is accepting the New Labour settlement, rather than rolling it back.
Since my basic politics is Anyone but Labour, I don't see the point in voting for Labour's policies just because the party implementing them is calling itself the Conservatives.
First, the Indy ref:
The overround on the straight winner market is 5.6%
The overround on the winner/turnout double market is 13%
The odds implied for No by the double market are 1/7.82 (compared to 1/5)
The odds implied for Yes by the double market are 3.12/1 (compared to 7/2)
Second, next GE betting:
The overround on Most Votes market is 7.5%
The overround on Most Seats market is 5.5%
The overround on Seats/Votes double market is 17%
The odds implied for Con Most Votes by the double market are 1/2.09 (compared to 4/6)
The odds implied for Lab Most Votes by the double market are 1/1.03 (compared to 11/10)
The odds implied for Con Most Seats by the double market are 1/1.03 (compared to 11/10)
The odds implied for Lab Most Seats by the double market are 1/2.09 (compared to 8/11)
I can't see how there can be any value in the doubles.
Cracking poll for the purples. I thought constituency polling was notoriously unreliable, however?
Worth also mentioning all the news is of UKIP and the defection. No Conservative candidate or campaigning, as yet.
However, it'd still be hard to see UKIP lose this unless the poll is the mother of all rogues.
The best 'UKIP Are Crap and So Are the Electorate' i've ever read.
......and I agree with nearly every word
I said I thought Carswell would walk it in Clacton and he clearly will.
As Flocker so ably outlines, people are getting pretty tired of the stale bien-pensant westminster bubble of tweedledem/tweedledave/tweedleband politics. For all its immaturity UKIP appears to be a party that actually, shock horror, listens to what people worry about and, double shock horror, appears willing to do something about those concerns. How very dare they!
Personally I'm horrified this will mean we get Redward in No.10 - but a big part of me is cheering the kippers on. Go Douglas!
That's not to let politicians off the hook; there are plenty of examples of the political class treating people with contempt or having an exaggerated view of their own competence.
Whether a political establishment that was led by UKIP would be any better is a moot point, but one can see why people want to throw out the current establishment.
The only way he can overcome this perception is to come up with a "shopping list" of measures to tackle voters' discontent with Europe and to promise that these will be tabled immediately after the Tories win next May's General Election, setting a reasonable 18 months time frame for reaching agreement, thereby enabling a referendum thereon to be held in November 2017.
If he's not prepared to do this then it's best that he resigns now and passes the mantle to someone who is. This issue simply cannot be ducked any longer.
How was this sample chosen? Was it on street, phone or internet panel?
It looks as if it was taken outside the British Legion hosting a tea dance!
So in essence I believe we are heading (hurtling?) towards a dramatic realignment in domestic politics, but within the existing democratic framework. I think the Uk is temperamentally and constitutionally equipped to resist the emergence of a real "strong man", and will be for as long as memories of the Second World War remain vivid .
Which gives us about 30 years...
"Rona Fairhead has been announced as the future chairwoman of the BBC Trust - and the first woman to lead the corporation."
Rona who?
I often wonder whether our brief experiment with universal suffrage is coming to an end.
One can argue about the weightings, but it's still clear that UKIP are well ahead in this seat. Media interviews with Clacton voters have been overwhelmingly supportive of Carswell, over the past few days.
I visit France fairly regularly these days and watch the FN closer than most. Please accept my assurance that any 'softening' is purely cosmetic and precisely for the purpose you indicate. I have a Marine le Pen anecdote which will illustrate.
A good friend was at a party in France and was astonished to find herself being introduced to MLP. All she could think to blurt out was 'Mais je suis Juive', to which Marine responded with a smile 'Tant pis.'
Plus ca change, plus c'est le meme chose.
This got the UKIP haters here excited.
I did point out though that we might very well see pro-UKIP tactical voting in wwc constituencies.
This poll suggests it is likely.
There's some Europe in Carswell's resignation statement, but not much:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28967790
Matt
The Sunday papers immediately before the vote could be full of stories saying Unionism is nasty, scary and unwanted.
The Orange march will surely increase support for YES among working class Catholic Glaswegians.
UKIP also plan a "special impact" media event for 17 Sep.
YES are on their front foot, organising flash mobs to scupper NO events and placing stories about what people (from Alistair Carmichael to Andy Murray) will do after independence.
Many of their supporters are naive and well-intentioned, if brainwashed. They don't realise they are being used, and they genuinely believe that the feelings and camaraderie they have experienced during the YES campaign will continue after a YES win as features of a 'people's movement'. They aren't half going to be disappointed if they lose.
The facts are that Osborne HAS failed to eliminate the deficit and Cameron HAS failed to reduce immigration.
Swiss Bob, I take it you are referring to the Most Seats/Overall Majority markets that are the mainstay of us GE punters on here?
Normally you would just ignore the Others category, usually available at stupendous odds, but I took the precaution this morning of having a small bet, just in case.
I also had a fiver on Farage as next PM some time back. Ok, laugh if you want to but he was 200/1. He's currently 80/1 and I don't think that will be available much longer.
And its hardly a surprise that he is - he did after all claim to be the true 'Heir to Blair'.
Everyone here is intelligent and insightful and can distil with certainty the views of the whole population, or at the very least all those dim UKIP voters eh?
Re Under-age carnal relations, the contents of 'The Worm in The Bud' might raise a few eyebrows about Victorian Values.
I'm reminded of a conversation I had a fair while ago now.
White South African girl: Will my family and I be safe under majority rule?
IA: Just as long as most of the voters can remember apartheid, you'll all be just fine.
So she hasn't got too long, either...
But when trust is lost people don't believe reasonable answers.
As Cameron's EU record is a trail of failure and surrender vague promises of future 'great undertaking nobody to know what it is' aren't going to work.
After all does anyone really believe that Cameron would ever advocate an OUT vote in a EU referendum ?
BT supporter kicks pregnant woman who ends up unconscious and this is how they report it, not a mention that it is NO supporting BNP unionist ally
A MAN has been detained by police after a confrontation between Yes and No campaign supporters in Glasgow today.
Officers said they were aware of claims that a woman had been assaulted during a “heated debate” between the two sides on Argyle Street but were still to establish the facts.
On Saturday night a spokesman for Police Scotland said: “Around 40 Yes and No campaigners were involved in a heated debate on Argyle Street at approximately 4pm on Saturday. An allegation was made that during the demonstration a woman was assaulted, this has not yet been confirmed.
“Investigations are ongoing and a male has been detained.”
Rotherham child sex abuse scandal: Labour Home Office to be probed over what Tony Blair's government knew - and when
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rotherham-child-sex-abuse-scandal-labour-home-office-to-be-probed-over-what-tony-blairs-government-knew--and-when-9701861.html
Politicians are getting scared how this is shaping up to be the biggest political scandal since WW2
.........and Cammo now hoping that the coattails of Polands new EU President will give him succor:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28997123
Also playing the old game of you scratch my back I'll scratch yours. Very sad really
Flag Quote · Off Topic
The Pieds Noirs were massively pro-Israel in the Sixties.
Why be surprised? ever since Carswells defection I have banged on and on about ukip winning the euros in clacton by a street and that plus a very popular incumbent meant they should be huge odds on.. And everyone was "oh the euros don't count" or " the Tories will think that Carswell is a traitor"
Now a poll comes out that makes it look as though I was guilty of underestimation, and everyone says "the weightings of the poll look wrong"
Such shameless desperation would be hard to find elsewhere
Tactical voting would be Lab/LD voters voting Tory to stop UKIP. Admittedly there might be some who would vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose, but I don't think many "tactical voters" think like that - in my mind it's more of case of voting for a compromise candidate because their preferred choice won't win
If he'd told the sceptics what he probably thought - that once Lisbon is signed it's signed and that's that, or that the UK is either in the EU mostly as is or out, and in is the less bad of the two - he probably wouldn't have made it this far.
Indeed, Peter!
I do struggle with my genders, as JackW will attest.
Thanks for the correction.
Let's take the example of immigration. The biggest problem the government have is that the success of their economic policies has turned the UK into employment Central creating more jobs than the entire EZ and acting as a magnet to the unemployed and ambitious of the EU.
The second problem is that we accept that the government has no right to say who UK citizens can and can't marry and that we have a right to bring our spouse here to live with us. Given the size of our existing immigrant communities this creates an enormous pressure for immigration which can only be mitigated by authoritarian challenges and diminution of basic rights.
The third problem is that education is a major export industry for us bringing many foreign students here. They then get involved in UK life and with UK citizens and want to stay.
Cameron can be criticised for promising to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands because unless we had an economic disaster of Brownian proportions it was never going to happen but when did we last elect a politician whose response to every problem is that it is all terribly difficult?
The next poll will surely show something more realistic (perhaps a 15-20% lead, which is what I would guess from this sample reweighted) and the UKIP lead "collapsing".
I have never hidden my dislike of UKIP, but I have never accused them of being a racist party (though I think xenophobic is a fair description) and understand the disenchantment with the major parties. I just think them an incoherent party with the wrong solutions to the wrong problems that face the country.
If Carswell wins, and other similar eurosceptic right wingers join him in defection, then we will have a parliamentary kipper block that will be putting Farage and Nuttall in the shade. They will inevitably produce a manifesto along the lines of Carswells book "the plan" which I have on the shelf. I cannot see that appealing to WWC ex Labour voters. Privatisation of health care and the welfare state for example. Incidentally immigration is hardly mentioned.
Farage has as much to fear from Carswell as Cameron.
Did you see my speculation yesturday on the influence SamCam has politically on Cameron ?
I'd be interested in your thoughts if you're willing to give them.
Mr Le Pen, who will be 86 later this month, reeled off a string of insults against celebrities who had criticised the FN’s success in the European elections last month. When he came to the French Jewish actor and pop singer Patrick Bruel, Mr Le Pen, said: “We will organise an oven for him next time”.
Mr Le Pen used the word fournée, attempting to make a word-play on tournée, which means concert tour. Fournée can mean “baker’s oven” or “batch” – but oven is the only word the makes sense in the context.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-sins-of-the-father-jeanmarie-le-pen-embarrasses-daughter-marine-with-antisemitic-jibe-on-fn-website-9509696.html
I think they are right to be worried.