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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    82% UKIP?, Cons starting to feel tempting as a long shot
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Corporeal, indeed, although didn't UKIP get most of the money on them in Newark?

    And the current F1 title leader was 16/1 with Ladbrokes prior to the season.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited August 2014
    FPT:

    Having thought about it, there is potentially one policy that might be able to bridge the economic divide: basic income.

    The idea has support on both the left and the right. Maybe UKIP should look into the negative income tax.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    Off to Dartmouth to see the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight as a highlight of the Regatta - this year with not one but TWO Lancasters!

    Fire up the Dambusters theme....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    There could be a trading oppo on the blues for Clacton if they do name a 'biggish' name - god knows who.

    Nice to see Ed's back and calling for overarching public inquiries again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    corporeal said:

    82% UKIP?, Cons starting to feel tempting as a long shot

    Come on Boris!! Carpe diem as you would say.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    FPT

    Hurst Llama


    ""I also wonder if as a society we're now different demographically, in terms of the class make-up of rural vs urban etc, but that's an undeveloped thought"

    Well while you are developing it let me throw you a few ideas. There is probably less dividing the urban dweller and his/her smaller town or rural neighbour that at any time in our history. Yet their voting patterns seem so different? Why is that? More to the point, what are the commonalities in their experience of life, what problems do they both have in common and what would they both like to see resolved? Could a party that appealed to that commonality actually win in both areas? "

    Mr Llama, most parties would like the idea of everyone voting to them, but it's a bit trickier in practice. It also comes with a strong downside of winning in neither.

    Politics is becoming an increasingly crowded marketplace, it becomes harder to hold wide territory.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    There could be a trading oppo on the blues for Clacton if they do name a 'biggish' name - god knows who.

    Nice to see Ed's back and calling for overarching public inquiries again.

    It's likely the by-election will be after Tory conference, which may show a Tory boost, and effect a move in prices.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    FPT.

    @old_labour
    In normal circumstances you might have a point, but iff there is an organized "barracking" going on you are no longer filming a debate, and are filming a shouting match instead.
    I believe he is claiming that is what was happening, if you believe it or not, of course is up to your own perspective.
    I haven't debated independence with all but a few of the more sensible of my friends, because otherwise emotions take over, and there is usually a falling out before bedtime. (more usually pub closing, but you get the picture)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    This is so unfunny... on the BBC sport website

    Ben - Cobham: To be fair to Kluivert he would have been mad to follow LVG to United. Ross County currently have much more potential.

    Paul Walmsley: So will Burnley view this as two points dropped if the score stays the same?

    Vinny Person: 0-0 would be a blinding result for United.

    Andy R, Northolt: Sounds like an intriguing early season relegation battle at Turf Moor...

    Dan, Worcester: I still think Utd will stay up.

    and Man U fans unhappy.. if only their reliable 12th man hadn't retired this year.

    Tim Montgomerie‏@TimMontgomerie·2 mins
    Clear penalty. Denied #mufc
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    edited August 2014
    MM



    "Fire up the Dambusters theme...."


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYDBMjvqMlM
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Sunder Katwala‏@sundersays·18 secs
    Plucky Man Utd secure 0-0 draw at Burnley. 2 points from 3 games: will need to improve on 0.66 rate (=25pts) to secure Premiership status
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Getting a draw against Man U isn't a big deal any more
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    corporeal said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    There could be a trading oppo on the blues for Clacton if they do name a 'biggish' name - god knows who.

    Nice to see Ed's back and calling for overarching public inquiries again.

    It's likely the by-election will be after Tory conference, which may show a Tory boost, and effect a move in prices.
    Unless UKIP have another defector to announce that week? Might warn their local candidate though next time....
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    This is so unfunny... on the BBC sport website

    Ben - Cobham: To be fair to Kluivert he would have been mad to follow LVG to United. Ross County currently have much more potential.

    Paul Walmsley: So will Burnley view this as two points dropped if the score stays the same?

    Vinny Person: 0-0 would be a blinding result for United.

    Andy R, Northolt: Sounds like an intriguing early season relegation battle at Turf Moor...

    Dan, Worcester: I still think Utd will stay up.

    and Man U fans unhappy.. if only their reliable 12th man hadn't retired this year.

    Tim Montgomerie‏@TimMontgomerie·2 mins
    Clear penalty. Denied #mufc

    For once I agree with Tim Montgomerie.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    MM.

    Even better!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuIJqF8av6I
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Senior Labour sources have rounded on Douglas Alexander, blaming the Shadow Foreign Secretary for the No campaign's recent woes - and in particular an advert designed to appeal to women which led to accusations of patronising sexism.

    .....He was also election co-ordinator for Labour's failed bid to remain in power in 2010. Later he helped to organise David Miliband's attempt to win the resulting Labour leadership contest.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MarqueeMark said:

    Off to Dartmouth to see the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight as a highlight of the Regatta - this year with not one but TWO Lancasters!

    Fire up the Dambusters theme....

    Am at Bournemouth Air Show.

    Just seen flypast by two spitfires and a Lancaster.

    And, indeed, the Dambusters March was played over the public address.

    Shame my grandfathers fought on the other side.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited August 2014
    corporeal said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    This is so unfunny... on the BBC sport website

    Ben - Cobham: To be fair to Kluivert he would have been mad to follow LVG to United. Ross County currently have much more potential.

    Paul Walmsley: So will Burnley view this as two points dropped if the score stays the same?

    Vinny Person: 0-0 would be a blinding result for United.

    Andy R, Northolt: Sounds like an intriguing early season relegation battle at Turf Moor...

    Dan, Worcester: I still think Utd will stay up.

    and Man U fans unhappy.. if only their reliable 12th man hadn't retired this year.

    Tim Montgomerie‏@TimMontgomerie·2 mins
    Clear penalty. Denied #mufc

    For once I agree with Tim Montgomerie.
    The first one was as certain as a banker's bonus !
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I do not understand what point you are making. Are you saying that filming should stop because voices are being raised?
    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @old_labour
    In normal circumstances you might have a point, but iff there is an organized "barracking" going on you are no longer filming a debate, and are filming a shouting match instead.
    I believe he is claiming that is what was happening, if you believe it or not, of course is up to your own perspective.
    I haven't debated independence with all but a few of the more sensible of my friends, because otherwise emotions take over, and there is usually a falling out before bedtime. (more usually pub closing, but you get the picture)

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rottenborough said:

    corporeal said:

    82% UKIP?, Cons starting to feel tempting as a long shot

    Come on Boris!! Carpe diem as you would say.
    Boris will prove to be a coward !
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    On the previous and other threads, there are discussions about Scottish IndyRef support: where "Yes" more concentrated, etc. My understanding is that:

    * No: Aberdeen, Edinburgh, the Borders (Shetland/Orkney?) - too dependent on trade outwith Scotland to risk going it alone
    * Yes: Dundee, the Highlands - derives little benefit from the UK and believes will lose little on exit
    * The battleground: Glasgow, the Central belt, (the west coast?)

    But for all I know my understanding is purest gobshite - it's my impression from reading, not the product of any collation nor analysis.

    So my question is: is there a map anywhere that shows the distribution of support? Conversely, is there a data table anywhere from which I can construct one (i.e. support by postcode area, or registration county, or Westminster constituency, or Scottish Parliament constituency, or the bigger areas, or whatever is going)?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited August 2014
    Anyone know how Roger Helmer was selected for Newark?

    Both I and the UKIP candidate haven't a clue!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,529
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    There could be a trading oppo on the blues for Clacton if they do name a 'biggish' name - god knows who.

    again.

    Louise Mensch?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Sean_F said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    There could be a trading oppo on the blues for Clacton if they do name a 'biggish' name - god knows who.

    again.

    Louise Mensch?
    Farage's Christmases would be all at once if that happened.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    FPT:
    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    I agree with you, David, about the sort of PR that would be best, if by "best" we mean maximising voter choice and minimizing the influence of Party machines. (I presume you are in effect looking across the Irish Channel.)

    There are only two problems with it. First, it could mean that no one ever has to reach out and talk (and even more important, listen) to a constituent of different political views. We might well all hunker down in our bunkers like little children terrified of the dark. (We see quite enough of that on here, at least, as it is.)

    Second, and a consequence of the first, does it not actually increase the number of safe seats (at Party if not at candidate level)? Elections in which the machines work wholly to deliver their supporters, real or imaginary, to the polling booths, rather than making at least a token effort to persuade the uncommitted, don't strike me particularly favourably.

    This is not to deny your basic point, that an MP elected on less than, say, 30% of the poll has an issue of legitimacy in a single-seat contest. But is PR the fix for that?

    A better way to fix that is to have single constituencies, but with French style run offs.

    So on May 15th all parties campaign, then the top two candidates go into a second round two weeks later (perhaps with a NOTA option as third choice!). It makes tactical voting more explicit, but retains the constituency link and ensures the winner has 50% support, even if grudgingly.

    The two week break allows for fresh campaigning and also a pause for thought if one of the top two is controversial.

    The public understand the system as participation in X factor etc voting shows!
    I disagree. Run-offs just encourage tactical voting, negative campaigning and gaming the system in a way that's even worse than AV. These are scourges of modern politics and encourage people to believe their votes should be used against X or to stop Y, rather than as a positive force; a deeply corrosive attitude which leaves whatever government emerges as one people didn't really support and has consequent problems of legitimacy. Only SV, which is the worst of all worlds, is worse.
    Surprised by your suggestion that voters could vote either for a party or for a candidate. A more normal approach would be that you vote for a party and then have the option of voting for a candidate order with the default party votes being case in list order
    I think we're talking at cross purposes. The choice wouldn't be to vote for a candidate or a party, as someone who chose to vote for a candidate would have that vote counted in the party's total. A voter could, however, vote for a party without specifying a preferred candidate.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited August 2014
    He and Dave should establish the Plucky White Feather Clubsurbiton said: rottenborough said: corporeal said:82% UKIP?, Cons starting to feel tempting as a long shot

    Come on Boris!! Carpe diem as you would say.


    Boris will prove to be a coward !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Harsha Bhogle (@bhogleharsha)
    30/08/2014 15:36
    if we had naturalised indians, holding indian passports, booing dhoni in delhi, what would our reaction be?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    edited August 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    All this assumes that the egg incident was not a put-up job by the No side (or for that matter by a disaffected Labour supporter with no relevance to indyref, given the internal politics of SLAB).

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dan Hannan says Carswell will be able to remain as MP for Clacton as long as he likes, such is his popularity there.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited August 2014
    I am not aware that I have made any rabid comments.

    There has not been a war that Jim Murphy has ever opposed. He is the Liam Fox of the Labour Party, but without his charm or sense of humour.

    I saw some footage on TV of Churchill being heckled loudly by a group of young people at the 1945 general election. He hesitated, not out of fear, but disbelief because he probably expected the result to be a coronation rather than a grubby contest. Anyhow, he regained his composure, kept calm and carried on.

    In 1966, Harold Wilson was hit by an egg at a public meeting, but turned out to his advantage by humorously telling his assailant, it was a sign that things had improved under Labour because people could not afford to throw away eggs when the Tories were in power.

    Maybe Jim Murphy needs to learn some lessons from his boss.

    None of the above felt the need to take out 72 hours after being heckled or having an egg thrown at them.

    Are the eggs getting stronger or are the politicians becoming weaker, I ask myself.
    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    AndyJS said:

    Dan Hannan says Carswell will be able to remain as MP for Clacton as long as he likes, such is his popularity there.

    Hannan is hardly unbiased in this matter: he and Carswell are godparents to each other's children (tho' presumably not all of them).

    I like Carswell and dislike Hannan. Hannan is very intelligent but (like many smart people) can use his intelligence to hold political positions that are contradictory or intellectually dishonest. For example, his recent presentation as somebody who holds antiimmigration views omits his commitment to free movement of labour, and uses phrases such as "controlled immigration" to present an image of number reduction when all he means is different migrants enter and the net numbers are still greater than zero.

    Carswell has less mental facility and so is forced into more honorable positions - "I want Brexit regardless of EU reform. Therefore I must leave the Conservative party and join UKIP. I shall do so. I believe MPs are answerable to voters. Therefore I shall resign my seat and restand under my new flag. I shall do so.".

    Like or dislike him, I like Carswell's logic and I prefer "good" over "smart" anyday. You can rent smart people, but you can't buy courage.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @old_labour
    I am haven't noticed any rabid comments you have made either, though I have not read the entirety of your posts, and there might have been a couple I have missed.
    If your idea of a reasoned debate includes shouting, name calling and eggs, then you are entitled to your own opinion.
    At what point would you personally call a halt? and at what point does that shouting and name calling veer into intimidation?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    old_labour said:

    I am not aware that I have made any rabid comments.

    There has not been a war that Jim Murphy has ever opposed. He is the Liam Fox of the Labour Party, but without his charm or sense of humour.

    I saw some footage on TV of Churchill being heckled loudly by a group of young people at the 1945 general election. He hesitated, not out of fear, but disbelief because he probably expected the result to be a coronation rather than a grubby contest. Anyhow, he regained his composure, kept calm and carried on.

    In 1966, Harold Wilson was hit by an egg at a public meeting, but turned out to his advantage by humorously telling his assailant, it was a sign that things had improved under Labour because people could not afford to throw away eggs when the Tories were in power.

    Maybe Jim Murphy needs to learn some lessons from his boss.

    None of the above felt the need to take out 72 hours after being heckled or having an egg thrown at them.

    Are the eggs getting stronger or are the politicians becoming weaker, I ask myself.

    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    At the 1964 election, when someone threw an egg at Alec Douglas-Home, he used his skills as a former first-class cricketer and caught it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Selection - Con, Norwich South: Lisa Townsend.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/_Lisa_Townsend
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    AndyJS said:

    Dan Hannan says Carswell will be able to remain as MP for Clacton as long as he likes, such is his popularity there.

    How true is that? We keep hearing about popular MP's, but how many people actually know who their MP is and of those how many have any actual contact with them, rather than their office staff?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I think we're talking at cross purposes. The choice wouldn't be to vote for a candidate or a party, as someone who chose to vote for a candidate would have that vote counted in the party's total. A voter could, however, vote for a party without specifying a preferred candidate.

    The problem with "semi-open" lists is that they rarely deliver an outcome different to that of a closed list...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Herdson, if that happened today it'd probably end up being a meme.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Just to cheer up the Cybernats.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Igkg2DssU

    Alex Salmond's Downfall.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    RodCrosby said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I think we're talking at cross purposes. The choice wouldn't be to vote for a candidate or a party, as someone who chose to vote for a candidate would have that vote counted in the party's total. A voter could, however, vote for a party without specifying a preferred candidate.

    The problem with "semi-open" lists is that they rarely deliver an outcome different to that of a closed list...
    I'm not suggesting a semi-open list. The order of candidates for each party should be determined by the number of votes each gets, but if a voter wishes to opt out of picking an individual candidate but still express support for a party, they should be able to do that.

    For example, suppose there are 5 seats to be won and three parties contesting, and the votes are:

    Party A

    Candidate 1 - 1500
    Candidate 2 - 2600
    Candidate 3 - 1750
    Candidate 4 - 1200
    Candidate 5 - 1700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 800

    Total: 9550

    Party B

    Candidate 1 - 3000
    Candidate 2 - 2700
    Candidate 3 - 1450
    Candidate 4 - 2250
    Candidate 5 - 1200
    Party votes (no candidate) - 1100

    Total: 11700

    Party C

    Candidate 1 - 800
    Candidate 2 - 900
    Candidate 3 - 1150
    Candidate 4 - 1000
    Candidate 5 - 700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 450

    Total: 4950

    The seats would be allocated to the parties in the usual d'Hondt manner i.e. B,A,B,C,A but the candidates chosen are not those of the party order (there is no party order) but those with most individual votes within their party i.e. B1, A2, B2, C3, A3.

    The crucial difference between this and a semi-open list is that a non-candidate choice for a party effectively delegates the choosing of the party list orders to the other voters, not the party nominating.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited August 2014
    At the 1964 election, when someone threw an egg at Alec Douglas-Home, he used his skills as a former first-class cricketer and caught it.

    I can think of several politicians who have eaten it, from both the yes and No camps!

    On that note, I'm off out for coffee and a sandwich.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    david_herdson said:

    RodCrosby said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I think we're talking at cross purposes. The choice wouldn't be to vote for a candidate or a party, as someone who chose to vote for a candidate would have that vote counted in the party's total. A voter could, however, vote for a party without specifying a preferred candidate.

    The problem with "semi-open" lists is that they rarely deliver an outcome different to that of a closed list...
    I'm not suggesting a semi-open list. The order of candidates for each party should be determined by the number of votes each gets, but if a voter wishes to opt out of picking an individual candidate but still express support for a party, they should be able to do that.

    For example, suppose there are 5 seats to be won and three parties contesting, and the votes are:

    Party A

    Candidate 1 - 1500
    Candidate 2 - 2600
    Candidate 3 - 1750
    Candidate 4 - 1200
    Candidate 5 - 1700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 800

    Total: 9550

    Party B

    Candidate 1 - 3000
    Candidate 2 - 2700
    Candidate 3 - 1450
    Candidate 4 - 2250
    Candidate 5 - 1200
    Party votes (no candidate) - 1100

    Total: 11700

    Party C

    Candidate 1 - 800
    Candidate 2 - 900
    Candidate 3 - 1150
    Candidate 4 - 1000
    Candidate 5 - 700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 450

    Total: 4950

    The seats would be allocated to the parties in the usual d'Hondt manner i.e. B,A,B,C,A but the candidates chosen are not those of the party order (there is no party order) but those with most individual votes within their party i.e. B1, A2, B2, C3, A3.

    The crucial difference between this and a semi-open list is that a non-candidate choice for a party effectively delegates the choosing of the party list orders to the other voters, not the party nominating.
    OK, so it's effectively an open list. The only problem might be that a large proportion of lazy voters might just tick the party box, resulting in MPs being elected with tiny numbers of votes, potentially representing small but well-organized factions...

    I don't really see the point of giving voters a party box. If they don't find a candidate they can positively support, they ought to vote for another party (or abstain) surely?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    viewcode said:


    So my question is: is there a map anywhere that shows the distribution of support? Conversely, is there a data table anywhere from which I can construct one (i.e. support by postcode area, or registration county, or Westminster constituency, or Scottish Parliament constituency, or the bigger areas, or whatever is going)?

    Table 14 should do it:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    @Gadfly

    That's pretty technical, but I like the sound of it---provided the law be enforced.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "Rotherham abuse: Ed Miliband says child abuse inquiry 'delayed too long'"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28995751
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    A man has been charged with religiously-aggravated assault after MP George Galloway attacked in a west London street.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28998607

    Why not actual bodily harm?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    All this assumes that the egg incident was not a put-up job by the No side (or for that matter by a disaffected Labour supporter with no relevance to indyref, given the internal politics of SLAB).

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]
    The paranoia is strong with you it is.....

    Nick Palmer yesterday said that ordinary MPs do not have any special protection unless they are an obvious target.

    And long may it remain so, even on the streets of Scotland......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    edited August 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    Carnyx said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    All this assumes that the egg incident was not a put-up job by the No side (or for that matter by a disaffected Labour supporter with no relevance to indyref, given the internal politics of SLAB).

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]
    The paranoia is strong with you it is.....

    Nick Palmer yesterday said that ordinary MPs do not have any special protection unless they are an obvious target.

    And long may it remain so, even on the streets of Scotland......
    Hmm, even if he is a former MoD involved in contentious wars? Really?

    [Edit]: please ignore that, it is not something one should discuss if it is not that obvious. But if true for Mr M it would surprise me. Anyway the polis will no doubt catch the person involved and we will find out more.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    So Ed wants to kick it all into the long grass.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28995751

    No calls for prosecutions, but did he take questions?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    RodCrosby said:

    david_herdson said:

    RodCrosby said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I think we're talking at cross purposes. The choice wouldn't be to vote for a candidate or a party, as someone who chose to vote for a candidate would have that vote counted in the party's total. A voter could, however, vote for a party without specifying a preferred candidate.

    The problem with "semi-open" lists is that they rarely deliver an outcome different to that of a closed list...
    I'm not suggesting a semi-open list. The order of candidates for each party should be determined by the number of votes each gets, but if a voter wishes to opt out of picking an individual candidate but still express support for a party, they should be able to do that.

    For example, suppose there are 5 seats to be won and three parties contesting, and the votes are:

    Party A

    Candidate 1 - 1500
    Candidate 2 - 2600
    Candidate 3 - 1750
    Candidate 4 - 1200
    Candidate 5 - 1700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 800

    Total: 9550

    Party B

    Candidate 1 - 3000
    Candidate 2 - 2700
    Candidate 3 - 1450
    Candidate 4 - 2250
    Candidate 5 - 1200
    Party votes (no candidate) - 1100

    Total: 11700

    Party C

    Candidate 1 - 800
    Candidate 2 - 900
    Candidate 3 - 1150
    Candidate 4 - 1000
    Candidate 5 - 700
    Party votes (no candidate) - 450

    Total: 4950

    The seats would be allocated to the parties in the usual d'Hondt manner i.e. B,A,B,C,A but the candidates chosen are not those of the party order (there is no party order) but those with most individual votes within their party i.e. B1, A2, B2, C3, A3.

    The crucial difference between this and a semi-open list is that a non-candidate choice for a party effectively delegates the choosing of the party list orders to the other voters, not the party nominating.
    OK, so it's effectively an open list. The only problem might be that a large proportion of lazy voters might just tick the party box, resulting in MPs being elected with tiny numbers of votes, potentially representing small but well-organized factions...

    I don't really see the point of giving voters a party box. If they don't find a candidate they can positively support, they ought to vote for another party (or abstain) surely?
    Much as I would like the country to have a politically engaged electorate, it just ain't there at the moment. The party box enables voters to pick a manifesto preference without having to choose a candidate, which if they only make up their minds late on (even in the polling booth), may not be realistic and lead to them donkey-voting the top candidate or picking at random, both of which I'd regard as inferior to delegating that choice to those who can be arsed to organise themselves.

    I agree it's not perfect but to my mind, its drawbacks are smaller than any other system.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Former Conservative minister Sir David Mitchell, 86, dies

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-28994830

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarkHopkins said:

    Former Conservative minister Sir David Mitchell, 86, dies

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-28994830

    Andrew Mitchell's father.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.

    Indian commentator Harsha Bogle posed the question... how it would go down in Dehli if people born in India holding indian passports were supporting the other team and booing Indian players?

    No doubt those supporting India and booing Anderson are "just as English as I am"

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dr_spyn said:

    A man has been charged with religiously-aggravated assault after MP George Galloway attacked in a west London street.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28998607

    Why not actual bodily harm?

    I thought Galloway was an atheist...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Carnyx said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    All this assumes that the egg incident was not a put-up job by the No side (or for that matter by a disaffected Labour supporter with no relevance to indyref, given the internal politics of SLAB).

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]
    The paranoia is strong with you it is.....

    Nick Palmer yesterday said that ordinary MPs do not have any special protection unless they are an obvious target.

    And long may it remain so, even on the streets of Scotland......
    Hmm, even if he is a former MoD involved in contentious wars? Really?

    [Edit]: please ignore that, it is not something one should discuss if it is not that obvious. But if true for Mr M it would surprise me. Anyway the polis will no doubt catch the person involved and we will find out more.

    He's not a "former MOD" - he was Minister for Europe and Secretary of State for Scotland.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Murphy

    And it's not just him who got egged - a cancer patient got caught too:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-mp-jim-murphy-cancer-4127063

    “She stepped in when this guy started picking a fight with a photographer for being English. I can only imagine he thought the photographer was there with me.

    “She told him to stop and then he threw an egg at her.

    “It hit her in the chest. She told me she was ­recovering from breast cancer.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,586
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.

    Indian commentator Harsha Bogle posed the question... how it would go down in Dehli if people born in India holding indian passports were supporting the other team and booing Indian players?

    No doubt those supporting India and booing Anderson are "just as English as I am"

    You've paid for an expensive ticket - you are entitled to boo whoever you like.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.

    Indian commentator Harsha Bogle posed the question... how it would go down in Dehli if people born in India holding indian passports were supporting the other team and booing Indian players?

    No doubt those supporting India and booing Anderson are "just as English as I am"

    You've paid for an expensive ticket - you are entitled to boo whoever you like.
    Nonsense, Only people at football behave lie that, Cricket is a gentleman's game, booing just isn't on.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    AndyJS said:

    dr_spyn said:

    A man has been charged with religiously-aggravated assault after MP George Galloway attacked in a west London street.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28998607

    Why not actual bodily harm?

    I thought Galloway was an atheist...
    The way he put it when running for his seat in Bradford was "God knows who is a Muslim". I'm not sure how the court will handle this one if God isn't on the jury...
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited August 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    A man has been charged with religiously-aggravated assault after MP George Galloway attacked in a west London street.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28998607

    Why not actual bodily harm?

    It's actually... "Racially or religiously aggravated assault occasioning actual bodily harm".

    Looks like there will be a long holiday coming up for somebody.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    SquareRoot said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.

    Indian commentator Harsha Bogle posed the question... how it would go down in Dehli if people born in India holding indian passports were supporting the other team and booing Indian players?

    No doubt those supporting India and booing Anderson are "just as English as I am"

    You've paid for an expensive ticket - you are entitled to boo whoever you like.
    Nonsense, Only people at football behave lie that, Cricket is a gentleman's game, booing just isn't on.
    In the last two years, I've booed people at cricket matches, both entirely justified.

    David Warner (for punching Joe Root)

    and this year, Jadeja for being a cry baby over Sir Jimmy

    I'm ashamed to say in 2005, I took part in a chant of "Get your shit stars off our flag" to the Aussies during one test match.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    old_labour said:

    Senior Labour sources have rounded on Douglas Alexander, blaming the Shadow Foreign Secretary for the No campaign's recent woes - and in particular an advert designed to appeal to women which led to accusations of patronising sexism.

    .....He was also election co-ordinator for Labour's failed bid to remain in power in 2010. Later he helped to organise David Miliband's attempt to win the resulting Labour leadership contest.

    He has lost every election campaign he has been running by huge margins, why did they think this one would be different. Darling and McDougall were woeful so they brought in someone worse. Hard to imagine how Labour thought that campaigning as Tory supporters would turn out successful, you had to think they were not that stupid but it looks like they are, taking orders from Blue Ed down south is just suicide.
    Question is will anyone break ranks to try and saves themselves for the aftermath of the YES vote or will they go down with the ship supporting the Tories to the bitter end.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Anecdotal canvassing update: 96 people in 2nd strongest Tory ward (prosperous AB territory), normally high turnout. Some very strong Tory and Labour votes. A good deal of disillusionment with all parties; some Con->UKIP switching and unusually some Con->Lab, mostly personal votes ("all the parties are rubbish but you were the better MP"). Former LibDems in this ward leaning UKIP - no Red Liberals found there.

    These posts are just local colour and no representative trend is suggested. Nobody mentioned Rotherham or Clacton or Iraq - generally not many issues raised at all, though two UKIP voters mentioned immigration.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    old_labour said:

    I do not understand what point you are making. Are you saying that filming should stop because voices are being raised?

    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @old_labour
    In normal circumstances you might have a point, but iff there is an organized "barracking" going on you are no longer filming a debate, and are filming a shouting match instead.
    I believe he is claiming that is what was happening, if you believe it or not, of course is up to your own perspective.
    I haven't debated independence with all but a few of the more sensible of my friends, because otherwise emotions take over, and there is usually a falling out before bedtime. (more usually pub closing, but you get the picture)

    He thinks New Labour should be able to order the public off the streets or to stand meekly being dictated to by a fake socialist. They do not like democracy and freedom of speech.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    The alleged assault happened in Scotland. We don't have your English offences up here. The perpetrator would be charged with the most used common law offence in Scotland, a Breach of the Peace and it can result in a custodial sentence.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2014
    AndyJS said:

    dr_spyn said:

    A man has been charged with religiously-aggravated assault after MP George Galloway attacked in a west London street.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28998607

    Why not actual bodily harm?

    I thought Galloway was an atheist...
    I see that Mr Galloway has recovered from his injuries enough to disseminate many anti-zionist tweets (and a rather offensive one depicting Farage as a Nazi.

    twitter.com/MohammedFa15al/status/505127240716533761)

    I could not see any Galloway Tweets on the Rotherham scandal though, but perhaps someone with better search skills could find his condemnation of the rapists, and the community figures who covered it up

    I see Laurie Penny is unusually quiet on the rape and sexual exploitation ring despite this being an area where one would expect an active feminist tweeter to be up in arms.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    viewcode said:

    On the previous and other threads, there are discussions about Scottish IndyRef support: where "Yes" more concentrated, etc. My understanding is that:

    * No: Aberdeen, Edinburgh, the Borders (Shetland/Orkney?) - too dependent on trade outwith Scotland to risk going it alone
    * Yes: Dundee, the Highlands - derives little benefit from the UK and believes will lose little on exit
    * The battleground: Glasgow, the Central belt, (the west coast?)

    But for all I know my understanding is purest gobshite - it's my impression from reading, not the product of any collation nor analysis.

    So my question is: is there a map anywhere that shows the distribution of support? Conversely, is there a data table anywhere from which I can construct one (i.e. support by postcode area, or registration county, or Westminster constituency, or Scottish Parliament constituency, or the bigger areas, or whatever is going)?

    You are not far out but Glasgow / central belt now appears to be over 50% YES. I expect Shetland /Orkney are YES. Edinburgh I believe is very even.
    There is not any central data , it is all bits and pieces.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Carnyx said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    You are confusing a heated and passionate debate with an out of control shouting match.
    (the eggs are a bit of a clue here)
    I know from your other posts that you are not normally rabid, and I will leave you to decide which of the above they were becoming.

    All this assumes that the egg incident was not a put-up job by the No side (or for that matter by a disaffected Labour supporter with no relevance to indyref, given the internal politics of SLAB).

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]
    You can spot the special branch there on every video , they have the usual fancy earpieces. Nothing was done because nothing happened. Murphy is just a whinging big jessie , upset that people have rumbled him and are telling him what they think.
    If he cannot stand the heat he should get off his crate and go back to speaking to invited patsies in secret meetings.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Cyclefree said:



    What Prof Jay makes clear is how little care is now being provided to the abused girls who so clearly need a great deal of therapeutic help to get their lives back into some kind of order and some peace of mind.

    Will they get it? Will anyone care?

    There needs to be a CPS/police task force from outside the area focused like a laser on those files and preparing prosecutions of perpetrators, colluders, everyone involved. And not just prosecutions: disciplinary actions, removal of taxi licences, public naming and shaming etc. And when they've finished with Rotherham, they can move onto all the other towns where this is happening.

    if they did that - the care part - it would show the sheer scale of it, both in terms of numbers and geographical spread.

    By rights the Serb air force should be attacking the UK to force the govt to stop it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Smarmeron said:

    @old_labour
    I am haven't noticed any rabid comments you have made either, though I have not read the entirety of your posts, and there might have been a couple I have missed.
    If your idea of a reasoned debate includes shouting, name calling and eggs, then you are entitled to your own opinion.
    At what point would you personally call a halt? and at what point does that shouting and name calling veer into intimidation?

    What a pathetic post, obviously you do not want a democratic country where free speech is allowed.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Which polls are we expecting this evening/overnight? I assume there will be the usual YouJokeGuv.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    AndyJS said:

    James Anderson being booed by English India supporters at Trent Bridge.

    James Anderson: the player who is about to become the highest English Test wicket taker, overtaking Sir Ian Botham.

    Maybe he will copy Murphy and take a 72 hour break and consult police for guidance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    What world do you live in
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Socrates said:

    Interesting theory in the Economist:

    This is a specific ethnic issue more than a religious one, says a community worker in a city near Rotherham. Young Pakistani men are increasingly alienated from their conservative parents, who want them to marry girls from back home (often the Mirpur district in Kashmir) and also from religious leaders, who often cannot speak English. Discussions of sex are taboo at home and in the mosque, so some learn about it from pornography, about misogyny from rap music and come to view white women as fair game (though the report also suggests Pakistani girls were abused, and that this was hushed up).

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21614151-utterly-shockingand-distinctively-britishchild-sex-abuse-scandal-see-no-evil-hear-no-evil

    One problem with that theory would be if it turned out that part of the original grooming gang thing involved older male relatives sending the younger ones out to get some young girls to bring home.

    A second would be if it turned out that some local business men / community leaders had started to fund the grooming gangs to provide sexual servicing for their house fulls of illegal workers.

    It's a bit like what got in the papers over Galloway getting elected where there was spin that the community leaders couldn't control the younger vote any more. In reality it was about deliberately firing a shot over Labour's bows on foreign policy.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    Easterross said:

    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    The alleged assault happened in Scotland. We don't have your English offences up here. The perpetrator would be charged with the most used common law offence in Scotland, a Breach of the Peace and it can result in a custodial sentence.
    I thought so too but checked - and that Act also applies to Scotland (somewhat to my surprise).

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    Where is egg throwing defined as speech? And is abuse part of rational debate?
    The motto here seems to be "volume speaks louder than words"?
    Now it could all be a unionist plot, It could conceivably be that that Jim is a "fearty, and a "Jessie". Or, it could be that things were getting ugly, and out of hand and debate had ceased.
    He has of course got form on being a craven coward.
    He admits it here, round about the middle.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/glasgow-helicopter-crash-witness-jim-murphy-video
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11063874/Rotherham-sex-abuse-The-utter-brutality-is-what-shocked-me-most.html

    "The utter brutality is what shocked me most"

    One of the standard things in the culture is the idea that people from remote rural areas that are very "tight-knit" can be very hostile to outsiders. You get it in TV and movies all the time from "League of Gentlemen" through "Hot Fuzz" to "Straw Dogs" to "Deliverance."

  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Carnyx said:

    What I do not understand - and which a friend also queried - is why Mr Murphy's Special Branch (?) minder did not apprehend the attacker at once. Presumably he has a police minder or two, given his past employment record at MoD etc.

    [Edit: I may be thinking of the relevant part of the Met Police. But surely he has some sort of police cover for personal security.]

    It's not the job of minders, or security, or personal protection officers, or bodyguards or whatever you wish to call them, to arrest people who chuck eggs or do anything else. Their role is to protect the security of their principals. You've heard of distractions? These guys are trained to do their job.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    And for those that want to make up their own mind what happened at the "debate"
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/jim-murphy-suspends-referendum-tour-after-egging-1-3524774
    Edit:- sorry for the advert before the video.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Carnyx said:

    Easterross said:

    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    The alleged assault happened in Scotland. We don't have your English offences up here. The perpetrator would be charged with the most used common law offence in Scotland, a Breach of the Peace and it can result in a custodial sentence.
    I thought so too but checked - and that Act also applies to Scotland (somewhat to my surprise).

    If at all it would be likely to be breach of the peace as Easterross said, however given you can get off with threatening to kill the FM I doubt throwing an egg will register high on Interpol list this weekend. We are not southern jessies , though Murphy is acting like one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    Where is egg throwing defined as speech? And is abuse part of rational debate?
    The motto here seems to be "volume speaks louder than words"?
    Now it could all be a unionist plot, It could conceivably be that that Jim is a "fearty, and a "Jessie". Or, it could be that things were getting ugly, and out of hand and debate had ceased.
    He has of course got form on being a craven coward.
    He admits it here, round about the middle.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/glasgow-helicopter-crash-witness-jim-murphy-video

    Och grow up , throwing an egg is an accepted political event in Britain , has been done many times. The big fake shows his mettle by whining and whinging about it instead of getting on with it. If he is not fit for public speaking he should not try to kid on he is. I see you are getting out the violins as well, he stood at a doorway and helped an injured person walk outside , we should ban freedom of speech just for him immediately.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    corporeal said:

    82% UKIP?, Cons starting to feel tempting as a long shot

    That does seem a bit unlikely especially when you consider what the media campaign will be like - every day there'll be BBC and C4 journos glued onto Carswell asking him about what some bloke who claimed to be a Ukip supporter said on facebook the previous day.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    edited August 2014
    LoL, looks like canvassing is going well

    twitter.com/JohnnyBhoy1/status/505748150465097728
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    edited August 2014
    FPT


    Either end is currently doing well in terms of current trend, but in overall terms the big four, occupying various spots in the middle are still massively ahead of them.

    Was New Labour too mushy middle?
    It's not about the big four, it's about how they became the big 4. Which was to diverge from the mainstream at their time. Of course there's an advantage to being big and being the incumbent. You use that to category kill -to use your mass and power to move into the new category whilst the new starter is still small and weak and squeeze them out. That's what the Tories have failed to do.
    HYUFD said:

    LuckyGuy1983 Actually Sainsbury's is holding its market share, it is Tesco, Asda and Morrisons who are being squeezed. M and S food is doing OK, M and S clothing is in freefall.

    Proving my point. M&S food is a premium grocer. M&S clothing is not a premium clothes shop, it's the very definition of the squeezed mushy middle.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    malcolmg said:

    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    What world do you live in
    The real one, thankfully.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2014
    That Salmond death threat in all it's blood curdling detail:

    "Christopher Stevenson, 26, posted [on Twitter]: "I think I might assassinate Alex Salmond" while watching a television programme about him.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28989953

    Clearly an idiot, but not, it would appear, a violent one.....
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    It might have crossed the minds of a few that night to get the hell away in case the helicopter blew up.
    The majority stayed on to help out where they could, something we pride ourselves in, basic common decency and humanity.
    Whichever way the vote goes, I hope Scotland remembers that.
    (paste nasty epithets below under "waste")
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    edited August 2014
    Here is your average BT event

    twitter.com/ScotsProgress/status/505734182522585088/photo/1
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scottish independence: Man arrested after votes 'for sale' on eBay

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28996416
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Easterross said:

    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    The alleged assault happened in Scotland. We don't have your English offences up here. The perpetrator would be charged with the most used common law offence in Scotland, a Breach of the Peace and it can result in a custodial sentence.
    You are right about there being no S4 Public Order in Scotland. My bad. I cannot comment on whether your Breach of the Peace would apply, but it does seem quite broad spectrum in that it can technically lead to life imprisonment.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    CarlottaVance said:

    That Salmond death threat in all it's blood curdling detail:

    "Christopher Stevenson, 26, posted [on Twitter]: "I think I might assassinate Alex Salmond" while watching a television programme about him.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28989953

    Clearly an idiot, but not, it would appear, a violent one.....

    Jokes about the First Minister are forbidden. What a pathetic waste of time and money. No surprise that the whole idiotic process was started by a yank.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Socrates said:

    Interesting theory in the Economist:

    This is a specific ethnic issue more than a religious one, says a community worker in a city near Rotherham. Young Pakistani men are increasingly alienated from their conservative parents, who want them to marry girls from back home (often the Mirpur district in Kashmir) and also from religious leaders, who often cannot speak English. Discussions of sex are taboo at home and in the mosque, so some learn about it from pornography, about misogyny from rap music and come to view white women as fair game (though the report also suggests Pakistani girls were abused, and that this was hushed up).

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21614151-utterly-shockingand-distinctively-britishchild-sex-abuse-scandal-see-no-evil-hear-no-evil

    One problem with that theory would be if it turned out that part of the original grooming gang thing involved older male relatives sending the younger ones out to get some young girls to bring home.

    A second would be if it turned out that some local business men / community leaders had started to fund the grooming gangs to provide sexual servicing for their house fulls of illegal workers.

    It's a bit like what got in the papers over Galloway getting elected where there was spin that the community leaders couldn't control the younger vote any more. In reality it was about deliberately firing a shot over Labour's bows on foreign policy.

    Usual twaddle from The Economist if you ask me. There was very little discussion on sex in the 1950's, but though seamy things obviously went on under cover, it didn't result in mass child rape. The capacity for evil sadly lies in all of us, but in this case it was fostered by a total lack of consequences, in the form of shame, disapproval, or legal sanction.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2014
    On the "if we don't get a currency union we'll renege on the debt" story, the SNP "has previous":

    "If we don't get in the EU we'll deport all European citizens"

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    All 160,000? Can they vote? Could that be viewed as coercion?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    It might have crossed the minds of a few that night to get the hell away in case the helicopter blew up.
    The majority stayed on to help out where they could, something we pride ourselves in, basic common decency and humanity.
    Whichever way the vote goes, I hope Scotland remembers that.
    (paste nasty epithets below under "waste")

    It does not mean that we suspend freedom of speech for him. he is just your average lying MP, in fact well above average. The man is a fake and a trougher.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Gadfly said:

    Easterross said:

    Gadfly said:

    Having now watched the Jim Murphy video it would appear that the egg thrower firstly committed a S4 Public Order offence against the cameraman, which by itself could warrant a community sentence, if not custody. The egg throwing incident would probably be charged under S4A and would almost certainly result in custody.

    It's possibly part of our psyche to brush off these events as a bit of silliness, but the perpetrator, who is clearly identifiable from the video, possibly has no idea as to what could be awaiting him.

    Interestingly, if he is apprehended and remanded in custody, he may find that the system makes it impossible for him to exercise his legal right to vote in the referendum.

    The alleged assault happened in Scotland. We don't have your English offences up here. The perpetrator would be charged with the most used common law offence in Scotland, a Breach of the Peace and it can result in a custodial sentence.
    You are right about there being no S4 Public Order in Scotland. My bad. I cannot comment on whether your Breach of the Peace would apply, but it does seem quite broad spectrum in that it can technically lead to life imprisonment.
    You managed to get back to reality after being prodded then.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    He looks more like a cad and a scoundrel to me? But hey, we have freedom of perception as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    CarlottaVance said:

    That Salmond death threat in all it's blood curdling detail:

    "Christopher Stevenson, 26, posted [on Twitter]: "I think I might assassinate Alex Salmond" while watching a television programme about him.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28989953

    Clearly an idiot, but not, it would appear, a violent one.....

    Sure you are right , NO people theatening murder and violence are just silly boys but those vicious YES people heckling politicians are maniacal serial killers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NickPalmer said:

    Anecdotal canvassing update: 96 people in 2nd strongest Tory ward (prosperous AB territory), normally high turnout. Some very strong Tory and Labour votes. A good deal of disillusionment with all parties; some Con->UKIP switching and unusually some Con->Lab, mostly personal votes ("all the parties are rubbish but you were the better MP"). Former LibDems in this ward leaning UKIP - no Red Liberals found there.

    These posts are just local colour and no representative trend is suggested. Nobody mentioned Rotherham or Clacton or Iraq - generally not many issues raised at all, though two UKIP voters mentioned immigration.

    Toton & Chilwell Meadows?
This discussion has been closed.